国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————三季度供需或将趋于平衡 袁方1张端怡2 魏薇（联系人）3 2025 年 07 月 22 日 内容提要 二季度经济呈现出供应强、需求弱的特征，最终导致实际产出下滑有限，而 价格显著滑落，名义 GDP 增速跌破 4%，处于近三年低点。伴随"反内卷"政策 的推出以及实体部门信心预期的修复，三季度供需有望趋于平衡，这也将逐步推 动名义 GDP 增速触底回升。 国投证券宏观定期报告 一、三季度供需或趋于平衡 从过往经验来看，适度通胀对企业生产经营、居民资产负债表的改善影响积 极。在经济体从低通胀向适度通胀演进的过程中，流动性环境的宽松与基本面的 止跌回升往往会同时出现，权益市场在这一环境中表现会相对亮眼。 短期而言，低通胀环境叠加资金面的宽松，对债券市场依然有利，债券市场 单边向上的空间有限。不过展望至年底，我们倾向于认为基本面的修复、通胀的 回升可能会推动债券市场收益率中枢上行。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1宏观团队负责人，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520 ...

7月18日，广东经济半年报出炉。数据显示，2025年上半年，全省经济延续回升向好态势，运行总体平 稳、稳中向好。 上半年，广东实现地区生产总值68725.40亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长4.2%。其中，第一产业增加 值2258.86亿元，增长4.2%；第二产业增加值25978.86亿元，增长3.4%；第三产业增加值40487.69亿元， 增长4.6%。 具体来看： 总的来看，上半年，广东经济运行整体回升向好。但也要看到，当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，国内有效 需求不足，经济持续回升向好基础仍需加力巩固。 一组图速览广东上半年经济运行具体情况>>> 工业方面，上半年，全省规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.0%，增速比一季度加快0.1个百分点，其 中6月份增长5.3%。分门类看，采矿业增加值下降0.3%，降幅收窄3.0个百分点；制造业增长 4.5%，增速提高0.1个百分点；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业下降0.1%。 服务业方面，上半年，全省服务业增加值同比增长4.6%，增速比一季度加快0.3个百分点。其中， 交通运输仓储邮政业、金融业增加值分别增长6.6%、7.0%，比全部服务业增速高2.0个、2.4个百 分点。 ...

上半年，我国实际 GDP 累计同比增长 5.3%，高于全年 5%左右的增长目 标，一定程度上减缓了下半年稳增长的压力，提供了更大的政策操作空间。 二季度，我国经济整体保持在合理区间。以支出法看，二季度我国经济运行 结构呈现一定改善迹象。整体看来，消费主力地位稳固，投资修复动能增 强，净出口虽边际回落但仍有效对冲内需波动，结构性改善趋势逐步显现。 2025 年 6 月规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.8%，增速回升 1.0pct。 从行业结构来看，制造业依旧是拉动工业增长的核心力量。制造业内部结 构正在逐步向产品附加值更高、技术含量更强的方向调整，为后续工业稳增 长提供了更坚实的基础。不过，传统产业仍呈现出一定疲态。水泥产量同比 下降，钢材产量微增，显示基建与地产相关链条依旧疲弱，未能对整体工业 形成有力支撑。从所有制结构和外贸导向看，市场化主体展现出更强的弹 性。6 月私营企业和股份制企业工业增加值表现好于国有控股企业。 2025 年 6 月社会消费品零售总额虽然当月增速略显疲软，但从更中长 期视角看，消费修复趋势并未改变。上半年社会消费品零售总额同比增速较 一季度加快，消费对经济恢复的支撑作用依然稳固。具体来 ...

21世纪经济报道见习记者冉黎黎 北京报道 上半年，工业生产实现较快增长。 规模以上工业增加值同比增长速度 （图/国家统计局） 其中，装备制造业和高技术制造业增势良好。上半年，装备制造业增加值同比增长10.2%，高技术制造 业增加值增长9.5%，增速分别快于全部规模以上工业3.8和3.1个百分点。 盛来运表示，"上半年，高技术产业增加值同比增长9.5%，2024年'三新'产业增加值占GDP比重达到 18%左右，新动能在积聚。" 7月15日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1—6月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.4%。其中，装备 制造业和高技术制造业增势良好，增速分别快于全部规模以上工业3.8和3.1个百分点，作为"新动能"的 一部分，高技术产业在上半年各月也呈现出"规律性"领跑的态势。 展望下半年，前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙对21世纪经济报道记者表示，稳增长政策可能会进一步 加码，下半年规上工业增加值增速可能还会有所提升。 7月15日，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍2025年上半年国民经济运行情况，国家统计局副局长盛来运在会 上表示，按照中央要求，近期有关部门加快推出下半年政策，会继续为经济稳定运行发挥关键支撑作 ...

天眼查资料显示，特变电工股份有限公司，成立于1993年，位于昌吉回族自治州，是一家以从事电气机 械和器材制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本505271.0023万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，特变电工 股份有限公司共对外投资了55家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息361条，专利 信息657条，此外企业还拥有行政许可20个。 西藏开投金上光伏能源有限公司，成立于2022年，位于昌都市，是一家以从事电力、热力生产和供应业 为主的企业。企业注册资本76200万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，西藏开投金上光伏能源有限公司 参与招投标项目17次，专利信息6条。 7月15日国家知识产权局信息显示，特变电工股份有限公司;西藏开投金上光伏能源有限公司申请一项名 为"一种光伏电厂升压站的继电保护装置"的专利，公开号CN120320179A，申请日期为2025年05月。 专利摘要显示，本发明公开了一种光伏电厂升压站的继电保护装置，涉及继电保护装置技术领域，包括 外箱，外箱内部安装有继电保护仪，还包括：风机，风机连通在外箱的侧部；过滤机构，过滤机构包括 固定连接在外箱侧部的侧箱，侧箱与风机的输入端连通，侧箱的内部滑 ...

Economic Overview - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from negative to positive growth, with food prices showing a reduced decline and non-food prices slightly rising [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year, with a widening decline, indicating that living material prices performed better than production material prices [1] - The average CPI for the first half of the year was -0.1%, while the average PPI was -2.9%, reflecting a low overall price level in the domestic market [1] External Factors - International commodity prices have decreased, creating downward pressure on domestic prices, particularly affecting industries related to oil and gas, with oil and gas extraction prices down by 12.6% year-on-year and fuel prices down by 10.4% [1] - The rise of anti-globalization sentiments and "reciprocal tariffs" from the U.S. has led to increased trade barriers, impacting China's export industries and potentially leading to further price declines in related sectors [2] Internal Factors - The acceleration of energy structure transformation and the increase in green energy have contributed to lower energy prices, with coal mining and washing prices dropping by 21.8% year-on-year due to reduced demand for thermal power [2] - Intense market competition in certain industries, particularly in manufacturing, has led to price suppression, with many companies engaging in price wars due to product homogeneity [3] Structural Price Changes - Policies aimed at reducing "involution competition" have helped alleviate overcapacity in certain sectors, leading to a narrowing of price declines in industries such as automotive manufacturing and lithium battery production [3] - Consumption-boosting policies have positively impacted certain consumer goods sectors, resulting in price increases for items like arts and crafts, sports goods, and smart consumer products [4] - High-tech industries related to smart manufacturing and digital economy are experiencing rapid growth, with product prices showing a year-on-year increase, indicating a promising future for economic transformation [5]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June, increasing by 0.1% year-on-year after four consecutive months of decline, primarily driven by a recovery in industrial consumer goods prices [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer demand [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, reflecting a broader trend of price reductions in various industrial sectors [1][4] Group 2 - The decrease in PPI is attributed to seasonal price declines in raw materials, increased green energy production leading to lower energy prices, and downward pressure on prices in export-oriented industries due to a slowing global trade environment [4][5] - The cumulative CPI for the first half of the year was -0.1%, indicating weak domestic price levels and insufficient consumer demand, which provides ample policy space for further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus [3][5] - The decline in industrial prices is exacerbated by overcapacity in several sectors, prompting discussions on capacity reduction as part of a new round of supply-side reforms [5]

Group 1 - In June, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with some industries showing signs of price stabilization and recovery [1] - The main reason for the month-on-month decline in PPI was the seasonal decrease in prices of certain raw material manufacturing industries, influenced by high temperatures and increased rainfall affecting construction progress in real estate and infrastructure projects [1] - The increase in green energy production contributed to a decrease in energy prices, with the electricity and heat production and supply industry seeing a month-on-month price drop of 0.9% [1] Group 2 - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points to 3.6% in June, influenced by both month-on-month declines and changes in comparison bases [1] - The construction of a unified national market has led to a narrowing of year-on-year price declines in certain industries, with prices for gasoline and diesel vehicle manufacturing and new energy vehicle manufacturing increasing by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively [2] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption have led to a year-on-year increase in prices of daily necessities, with general daily goods and clothing prices rising by 0.8% and 0.1% respectively in June [2]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from a decline that lasted for four consecutive months [3][9] - The rise in CPI was primarily influenced by the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, with the year-on-year decline narrowing from 1.0% to 0.5% [3][4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest increase in nearly 14 months [3][4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous month [6][7] - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points, influenced by seasonal price decreases in raw material manufacturing and pressures in export-oriented industries [6][7] - Some industries showed signs of price stabilization and recovery, particularly in sectors benefiting from domestic market improvements and consumption policies [7][6] Group 3: Price Changes by Category - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with notable declines in pork prices by 8.5% and egg prices by 7.7% [9][17] - Non-food prices increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with service prices rising by 0.5% [9][10] - Among various categories, prices for durable goods and entertainment-related items showed increases, reflecting ongoing consumer demand [7][12]

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到 先得！ 国家统计局7月9日发布数据显示，6月份，扩内需、促消费政策持续显效，居民消费价格指数（CPI） 同比由上月下降转为上涨0.1%；环比下降0.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。 扣除食品和能源价格的 核心CPI同比继续回升，上涨0.7%，创近14个月以来新高。 6月份，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同；同比下降3.6%，降幅比上 月扩大0.3个百分点。 7月9日早盘，A股三大指数震荡走强，上证指数时隔8个月重回3500点。 CPI同比由降转涨 "6月份，CPI同比上涨0.1%，为连续下降4个月后转涨。"国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示， CPI同比由降转涨主要受工业消费品价格有所回升影响。 图片来源：国家统计局 数据显示， 6月份，工业消费品价格同比降幅由上月的1%收窄至0.5%，对CPI同比的下拉影响比上月 减少约0.18个百分点 。其中，促消费政策效应持续显现，6月份，文娱耐用消费品、家用纺织品和家用 器具价格同比分别上涨2%、2%和1%；汽车价格降幅逐步收窄，燃油小汽车 ...