文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 不同地区股票市场不是同涨同跌的。了解多个股票市场，投资者可以把握更多的投资机会。 全球投资还可以显著降低波动风险。 那么，如何做好全球投资，分享全球市场长期上涨的红利呢？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了通过指数基金投资全球股市的方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 全球 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 刻用料理 数量分 投资 我的时间? 长按添加@课程小助手,回复「全球」 免费领取《全球指数投资指南》课程 更有课程笔记、思维导图 帮你快速搞懂全球指数投资, 分享全球市场长期上涨的红利 - Band Home Home - Start - Bangland - Ba 基金有风险,投资需谨慎 und #螺丝钉小知识 银行螺丝钉 美元降息,对A股港股有利吗? 有朋友问,美元如果降息,对我们投资会 有啥影响呢? 美元利率下降,对港股的利好更强一些。 当然，历史不是简单的重复。 A 股港股的估值毕竟比去年五点几星的时候 高了一大截。再遇到美元降息会有利好, 但利好的程度也下降了。 (1) 利率之于资产，就好比地 ...

来源：郁言债市 ►传统框架失效，"看股做债"走向极致 7月中旬以来或是相对煎熬的阶段。一方面，债市需要承受长久期收益率大幅上行带来的资本利得亏损，另一方面，投资者还面临着传统利率定价框架的 全面失效。在理论上，债市定价的三要素，资金面、基本面、政策面，均支持利率下行。 市场进入了一个由风险偏好单变量决断的定价状态，这也使得"看股做债"走向极致。这种状态形成的原因，或主要与股市非常态的风险收益率比相关，4 月以来股市的极致行情使得上证指数、万得全A的滚动3M卡玛比率自7月后长期维持在4.0以上水平，这是去年"924"行情也无法达到的状态。这种几乎只 涨不跌的风险偏好，对债市形成极大压力。 ►8月下旬，股市发展的两个逻辑 一是快涨逻辑，在"九三共识"的支撑下，各大股指，尤其是大盘型股指，或受到资金的托举，继续维持只涨不跌的趋势，同时由于本轮股票牛市不同 于"924"行情，前期散户资金进场节奏或更为温和，未来一周随着股市赚钱效应得到强化，不排除居民资金集中进场，加快股市上涨速度的可能性，债市 或仍面临压力。 二是震荡逻辑，随着9月3日阅兵时点将近，部分投资者或针对"九三共识"做逆向投资，提前止盈退场，一旦股市开始出 ...

8月22日下午两点半，债券市场持续下探，哀鸿遍野。十年期国债活跃券收益率上行超过2个基点，而30 年期国债更是岌岌可危，难掩颓势。 当日，财政部发行了高达830亿元的30年期特别国债，中标利率虽提高至2.15%，但全场认购倍数仅为 2.89倍，市场反应冷淡，机构投资者参与意愿低迷。与年初国债发行时机构争相抢购、认购倍数轻松突 破3倍甚至4倍的盛况相比，如今即便收益率有所提升，市场却反而望而却步，这其中究竟有何玄机？ 究其原因，是A股市场正经历一场前所未有的狂欢。 同一时间，上证指数一路高歌猛进，成功突破3800点，创下近十年来的新高，单日涨幅高达1.09%。中 证转债亦不甘示弱，紧随其后，上涨0.8%。在"逐利"法则下，资金如潮水般涌向股市。 在股市动辄百分之几的日涨幅面前，债市那点微薄的利息显得黯然失色，毫无吸引力。然而，债市向来 以"稳健"著称，为何会遭遇如此程度的连续下跌？ 事实上，从8月初开始，利率债便已进入下行通道，超长期债券基金更是首当其冲，损失惨重。部分基 金单日净值跌幅超过0.5%，投资者们的心态遭受巨大冲击。习惯了每日"收蛋"的债基投资者，如今却面 临"碎蛋"的困境，苦不堪言。 这背后，是经 ...

最近这几周，市场上其实挺多热点的，其中有很多的新政策，是前所未有的。 比如本周就出了一个消息： 国家要开始对 国债、地方债券的利息征收增值税 了，结束了债券利息免税的时代。 相当于你买国债赚到的利息钱，要征税了。 比如之前还有传言说，要对 海外炒股的收入 收20 %的个人所得税 ，很多在海外投资获得收入的投资者都被要求补上税款。 也就是你接下来海外账户买美股赚的钱，也得缴税。 大伙注意到没有，这些新收的税，全部 收的都是资产投资的利润。 对资产的收益，我们长期以来都是免税的。 为什么之前不收的税，现在要开始收了？ 我认为很重要的一个原因，是因为上面开始意识到： 这也和最近节节攀升的股市，正好对应得上。 但仅仅是因为这方面的收入会增加，就要去收税吗？ 我觉得这还只是一个相对表面的因素。 深入分析，国债利息征税以及海外收益征税背后，还有 两个更重要的信号大家一定要关注。 因为这可能会直接影响到大家接下来的财富走向。 第一个信号是： 国债规模的扩大。 有人测算，国债利息税未来的收入规模可能会达到每年500亿。 未来的东大社会，资产投资的收益会大大增加。 也就是说，未来大家通过资本市场投资赚到的钱会变多，所以才开始在 ...

| Un Am See I II. | | --- | | SOURCE POINT | | -1-1-1-1-1-1 | | 大类资产早报 | | | --- | --- | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/08/22 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/21 | 4.329 | 4.729 | 3.461 | 2.756 | 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant changes in the bond market, particularly the decline in government bond prices and the rise in yields, which may indicate a shift in market sentiment and expectations towards inflation rather than deflation [1][9][31]. Group 1: Bond Market Changes - Recently, government bonds have seen a widespread decline, with long-term bonds experiencing the most notable drops [1][2]. - The 30-year government bond futures dropped by 1.33%, marking the largest decline since March 17, and closed at a new low since March 24 [3][4]. - The yields on government bonds are rising, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 6.10 basis points to 2.055%, returning above 2% for the first time in four months [10][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article discusses the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields, where falling prices lead to rising yields, indicating a decrease in demand for bonds [12][13]. - The current bond market's unpopularity suggests a shift in investor sentiment, moving away from bonds towards equities, which is often seen as a normal reaction during bullish stock market conditions [15][18]. Group 3: Economic Expectations - The article posits that the recent bond market weakness is not solely due to the typical stock-bond relationship but is indicative of a broader change in market fundamentals [19][26]. - The transition from a deflationary trading environment to an inflationary one is highlighted, with the market's expectations shifting towards higher economic growth and inflation [31][34]. - Recent CPI data shows a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, indicating a rise in inflation expectations [36]. Group 4: External Influences - The article notes that external factors, such as increased foreign investment and supportive government policies, are contributing to the changing dynamics in the capital market [42][43]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to alleviate liquidity issues and support the transition from deflation to inflation trading [46]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the worst phase for the market has likely passed, and a prolonged recovery period is expected, with trading dynamics favoring inflationary strategies [48][49]. - The current high interest in the stock market and the declining bond market may become a new norm, suggesting significant potential for further stock market gains [50].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests that while the economy is slowing down, it is not in a recession, providing opportunities for patient investors [4] - The S&P 500 is expected to reach 6500 points by 2026, and high-quality bonds will become more attractive due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The market may experience fluctuations due to tariffs and inflation, but overall asset performance remains lively [4] Group 2 - Emerging markets, particularly China, are expected to benefit from stable RMB expectations, technological innovation, and domestic demand, creating new opportunities for capital inflow [5] - Global market trends vary, with Europe and Japan showing moderate gains, while emerging markets experience short-term volatility; however, India and Taiwan are performing well, especially in AI-related industries [5] - Investment strategies should focus on "core" assets such as U.S. Treasuries, investment-grade bonds, and leading stocks, while caution is advised for high-yield bonds and commodities due to potential oversupply risks [5]

Group 1 - The capital market landscape in 2025 is shifting towards diversified asset allocation, moving away from single-asset strategies to include equities, fixed income, and physical assets [1] - Structural opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market are evident, with companies like (02195.HK/34lp9) achieving a 45% increase in the AI healthcare sector and (02195.HK/83nm1) benefiting from stable dividend yields above 5.2% due to renewable infrastructure policies [2] - The bond market is seeing green bonds represented by (02195.HK/46df2) with yields surpassing 6.5%, while convertible bonds like (02195.HK/29rg4) offer a balanced risk-reward profile [2] Group 2 - Gold is highlighted as a traditional safe-haven asset, showing unique value during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, with a combination of physical gold and (02195.HK/38ts6) gold ETFs meeting liquidity needs while avoiding transaction losses [2] - The investment strategy suggests dividing funds into core and satellite allocations, with core investments in (02195.HK/14kb9) bond funds and (02195.HK/77pd0) blue-chip stocks, while satellite investments include sector-specific targets like (02195.HK/22wf4) [3] - Risk management focuses on three dimensions: using (02195.HK/41qr9) cross-market ETFs to hedge currency risk, employing (02195.HK/58sj2) volatility index products for market risk management, and allocating (02195.HK/36xf8) gold options to address extreme events [3] Group 3 - The rise of smart investment advisory tools is changing allocation methods, with systems like (02195.HK/26vq7) dynamically adjusting stock-bond ratios based on economic indicators [4] - There is a caution against algorithmic homogenization risk, suggesting that maintaining a portion of actively managed products like (02195.HK/39zp0) can enhance portfolio differentiation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for a balanced asset allocation strategy among stocks, bonds, and gold in the context of the 2025 global capital market, which is characterized by significant differentiation and changing dynamics [1] Group 1: Stock Investment - Investors are advised to focus on Hong Kong stocks with core competitive advantages, particularly in digital infrastructure, smart city solutions, and electric vehicle charging networks [1] - Specific companies highlighted include those with a 37% year-on-year revenue growth in smart city solutions and strategic breakthroughs in electric vehicle charging networks [1] - Other notable sectors include biopharmaceutical innovation and metaverse application development, which have established differentiated competitive advantages [1] Group 2: Bond Market - The bond market is experiencing a divergence between government bonds and corporate credit bonds, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizing around 3.8% and investment-grade corporate bond spreads narrowing to 150 basis points [1] - Green bonds issued by certain companies received oversubscription due to carbon neutrality certification, while convertible bonds are favored by hedge funds due to their conversion premium advantages [1] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for bond portfolio allocation, focusing on high-rated short-duration bonds and inflation-protected securities (TIPS) [1] Group 3: Gold as an Asset - Gold is undergoing a repositioning as a traditional safe-haven asset, with physical gold ETF holdings reaching record highs, although digital currencies are increasingly seen as alternatives [1] - The current price of London gold is around $1,950 per ounce, reflecting a 12% decline from its 2024 peak [1] - Investment strategies include indirect exposure through gold mining stocks or structured products linked to gold prices to capture rebound opportunities while managing volatility risks [1] Group 4: Investment Portfolio Construction - The Morningstar Q2 2025 report suggests a "433" allocation strategy: 40% in stocks, 30% in bonds, and 30% in alternative assets, including gold ETFs and commodity funds [1] - This allocation considers the growth potential of certain growth stocks while providing yield protection through high-yield bonds and hedging tail risks with precious metal derivatives [1] - As the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction nears its end, investors are encouraged to monitor interest-sensitive assets, credit spread indices, and volatility indicators for dynamic asset allocation adjustments [1]

Q&A 近期股市和债市表现如何？市场是否存在"股债跷跷板"现象？ 现在市场走到哪个阶段？20250819 最近，股市和债市的走势非常鲜明。自 7 月以来，权益市场表现强劲，而债券 市场则相对较弱，尤其是最近几个交易日表现更为疲软。然而，不应简单地将 当前市场划归为"股债跷跷板"逻辑，因为这种关系并不稳定。 如何看待当前的债券市场？是否存在季节性规律？ 摘要 债券市场存在季节性规律，通常 12 月至次年 2 月初利率下行概率较高， 1 月底或 2 月中旬至 3 月或 4 月中下旬可能出现阶段性调整。二季度利 率下行概率较高，三季度九十月份或八月份可能出现年内第二次调整。 这种规律与机构年度总结和宏观经济变化有关。 当前债券市场并非熊市，仍处于牛市中期位置。基本面偏弱、流动性充 裕的大环境未变，但静态收益不足、动态久期问题及机构行为叠加导致 波动增加。宏观经济类似于 2019 年和 2020 年的结合体，基本面偏弱 但票息极低是挑战。 国内基本面有所转弱，消费端社零下滑，地产投资数据不佳，非地产投 资也明显下滑。但生产端仍有韧性，7 月工业增加值同比增长 5.7%，GDP 增速约为 4.9%，经济压力加大，需关注 ...