那么，这波行情能走多久呢？目前来看，大概率才走到上半场。2017年之后，有色金属进入了一个供给 主导的周期。在此之前，有色金属的周期主要由中国工业化驱动的需求主导。矿山开发需要七八年时 间，这意味着当前的供给是五六年前的资本开支决定的，短期内难以大幅扩产。然而，需求端却有诸多 新增长点，包括储能的爆发、AI算力中心、全球电网改造、新兴经济体基建增速加快，以及全球地缘 冲突加剧下各国军工防务开支的增加，这些都拉动了钛、镍等小金属的需求。再加上新能源车和光伏等 需求的叠加，有色金属的需求端将持续得到支撑。机构预测，2028年前供需紧张的格局都很难破解。 值得关注的是，以下三个潜力方向值得深入研究： 2026年有色金属，尤其是能源金属的故事还将继续演绎，这背后有着深刻且复杂的逻辑支撑。自去年以 来，黄金、铜、锂等有色金属集体暴动，成为资本市场的焦点。本轮行情的核心是供需紧平衡、流动性 宽松和资源价值重估三重因素的共振。在逆全球化背景下，战略金属成为大国博弈的筹码，企业从低库 存转向主动囤货，库存成为需求的放大器，推动了有色金属行情的持续演绎。 最令人颠覆认知的是铜和黄金居然在同步上涨。要知道，过去它们之间更像是跷跷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), surging by 3.01% to reach a new historical high, indicating strong investor interest and potential buying signals [1][10]. Fund Performance - Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF recorded a trading volume of 106 million yuan, an increase of 14% compared to the previous period, and saw a net subscription of 18.6 million units, accumulating a total of 635 million yuan over the past ten days [1][10]. Stock Performance - Over 60% of the constituent stocks rose by more than 2%, with notable stocks such as Baiyin Non-Ferrous, Guocheng Mining, Xibu Gold, Hunan Baiyin, and Shengxin Lithium Energy hitting the daily limit [3][12]. - Key stocks like Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining also showed significant gains, with Shandong Gold rising over 6% and Zijin Mining increasing by more than 2% [3][12]. Market Influences - A significant purchase order of 150 tons of gold by the Polish central bank was announced, which will increase Poland's gold reserves to 700 tons, positioning it among the top ten countries globally in terms of gold reserves [4][12]. - International gold prices have surged, with spot gold exceeding $4,800 per ounce, reaching a new historical high, while domestic gold jewelry prices have also surpassed 1,500 yuan per gram [4][12]. Economic and Policy Context - The analysis from Dongwu Futures indicates that precious metals are experiencing upward volatility due to rising geopolitical tensions and potential tariffs imposed by the U.S. on European countries, which are boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals [5][14]. - The Shanghai government has released a plan to enhance the competitiveness of non-ferrous metal commodities, aiming to improve resource allocation and global pricing influence [5][14]. - Analysts from China Galaxy Securities suggest that escalating global geopolitical conflicts may reshape the global metal supply chain, potentially driving up the demand and value of key strategic metals such as copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earth materials [5][14]. ETF Coverage - Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its linked funds comprehensively track indices covering copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to various market cycles, including precious metals (safe-haven), strategic metals (growth), and industrial metals (recovery) [6][15].

Market Overview - A-shares major indices collectively rose today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.08% closing at 4116.94 points, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.70% at 14255.13 points, ChiNext Index up 0.54% at 3295.52 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 3.53% at 1535.39 points [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 26,240 billion, a decrease of 1,804 billion compared to the previous day [2] ETF Market Dynamics - The broad-based ETFs continue to exert downward pressure, particularly the SSE 50 ETF (510050), which saw a record trading volume of 16.9 billion and negative premium, indicating strong regulatory control [5] - The CSI 1000 ETF (512100) also reached a historical trading volume of 18.2 billion, showing the ongoing regulatory pressure from state-backed funds [5] - Despite the negative premium in SSE 50 ETF, the CSI 300 ETF showed no premium, while the CSI 500 ETF had a positive premium rate of 0.21 and the CSI 1000 ETF had a positive premium rate of 0.15, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the market [5] Sector Performance - The AI hardware sector showed significant rebounds, with stocks like Haiguang Information rising nearly 18%, driving up shares of companies like Cambrian, Industrial Fulian, and SMIC [6] - Precious metals performed strongly, with international gold prices surpassing 4,700 USD per ounce, while energy and non-ferrous metals also saw gains [7] - The coal sector, however, lagged behind, contrasting with the performance of the non-ferrous sector, indicating a divergence in sector performance [7] Capital Flow Insights - Main capital flows showed a net inflow of 6.3 billion in the Shanghai market, which is relatively rare, while the Shenzhen market experienced a net outflow of 670 million, possibly indicating a shift in main capital allocation [8]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 有色半导体领涨 A 股小幅上行 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：金融地产行业领涨 A 股震荡整 固》 2026-01-20 《市场分析：航天电网行业领涨 A 股小幅上 行》 2026-01-19 《市场分析：电子半导体领涨 A 股震荡整理》 2026-01-16 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2026 年 01 月 21 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周三（01 月 21 日）A 股市场低开高走、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指低 开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在 4135 点附近遭遇阻力，随后股指维持震 荡，盘中贵金属、能源金属、半导体以及电子元件等行业表现较 好；煤炭、酿酒、商业百货以及电网设备等行业表现较弱，沪指全 天基本呈现小幅震荡上行的运行特征。创业板市场周三震荡上扬， 创业板成分指数全天表现强于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 周三 A 股市场低开高走、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指低开后震荡上 行，盘中沪指在 4135 点附 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.54% [2] - Over 3,000 stocks in the market rose, with a total trading volume of 2.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 177.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] - The A-share market has shown a retreat since last Wednesday, with large funds redeeming from broad-based ETFs, leading to a pause in significant upward movement while maintaining levels above 4,100 points for the Shanghai Composite Index [2] Sector Performance - Active sectors included precious metals, semiconductor industry chain, lithium mining, and oil and gas, while the consumer sector, particularly liquor, saw declines [2] - Precious metals have shown significant growth, with a rise of over 23% in the last five trading days, indicating a new leading sector [11] ETF Trading Activity - The trading volume of major ETFs has fluctuated, with the total trading volume for four large-scale CSI 300 ETFs recorded at 435 billion yuan, 674 billion yuan, 390 billion yuan, 363 billion yuan, and 693 billion yuan over recent days [5] - The trading volume of the SSE 50 ETF exceeded 16.9 billion yuan, marking the highest volume since July 2015 [7] Investment Trends - Investors are advised to focus on performance-driven sectors as the earnings season approaches, shifting from previous popular themes to those with solid fundamentals [13][18] - The semiconductor sector is experiencing growth due to rising demand for storage chips and AI server procurement, with significant price increases noted in DDR5 memory chips [19] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may continue to favor technology and non-ferrous metal sectors, especially with the upcoming Chinese New Year in mid-February, which may limit rapid shifts in market focus [18] - The potential for gold prices to reach 5,000 USD per ounce in the first half of the year is highlighted, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [13]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower but closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 4116.94 points, an increase of 0.08%, and a total trading volume of 11,801.85 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,255.13 points, up by 0.70%, with a trading volume of 14,204.14 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index ended at 3,295.52 points, rising by 0.54%, with a trading volume of 6,512.35 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance Top Gaining Sectors - Higher Education sector led with a gain of 9.24%, total trading volume of 1,247.66 million hands, and a net inflow of 10.26 billion yuan [2] - Energy Metals sector increased by 4.01%, with a trading volume of 442.75 million hands and a net inflow of 20.26 billion yuan [2] - Small Metals sector rose by 3.58%, with a trading volume of 1,259.20 million hands and a net inflow of 49.03 billion yuan [2] Top Losing Sectors - The Beverage Manufacturing sector decreased by 2.12%, with a trading volume of 170.27 million hands and a net outflow of 51.90 billion yuan [2] - The Electric Grid Equipment sector fell by 1.59%, with a trading volume of 6,678.51 million hands and a net outflow of 77.14 billion yuan [2] - The Coal Mining and Processing sector declined by 1.42%, with a trading volume of 1,141.48 million hands and a net outflow of 14.56 billion yuan [2]

Market Overview - Major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.08%, Shenzhen Component Index by 0.70%, ChiNext Index by 0.54%, and the STAR Market 50 Index by 3.53% [1] - The total trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of nearly 200 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 4116.94, up 3.29 points (0.08%), with a trading volume of 1.18 trillion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 3.73% [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 14255.13, up 99.50 points (0.70%), with a trading volume of 1.42 trillion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 5.40% [2] - ChiNext Index: 3295.52, up 17.54 points (0.54%), with a trading volume of 651.2 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 2.88% [2] - STAR Market 50 Index: 1862.69, up 42.21 points (2.32%), with a trading volume of 310.8 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 13.81% [2] Sector Performance - The majority of industry sectors saw gains, with precious metals, energy metals, mining, electrical machinery, semiconductors, small metals, and electronic components leading the increases [2] - The coal, liquor, retail, and electric grid equipment sectors experienced the largest declines [2] Stock Performance - Nearly 3000 stocks rose, with close to 90 stocks hitting the daily limit up [3] - The precious metals sector surged, with stocks like Hunan Silver, Zhaojin Gold, Sichuan Gold, and Western Gold hitting the daily limit up [3] - The semiconductor sector also saw significant gains, with stocks such as Longxin Technology, Dagan Co., Huatech, Yingfang Micro, and Tongfu Microelectronics hitting the daily limit up [3] Capital Flow - In terms of industry capital flow, semiconductor, computer equipment, and non-ferrous metals sectors ranked high in net inflows, with semiconductors seeing a net inflow of 12.07 billion yuan [6] - Conversely, the electric grid equipment, liquor, and photovoltaic equipment sectors experienced significant net outflows, with electric grid equipment seeing a net outflow of 6.095 billion yuan [6]

据交易所数据显示，截至1月21日午间收盘，大盘主力资金净流入77.65亿元。主力资金流入前十大板块分别为： 半导体（89.88亿元）、计算机设备（30.42 亿元）、电子元件（18.37亿元）、小金属（13.35亿元）、 能源金属（12.81亿元）、 通信设备（10.71亿元）、电池（8.76亿元）、 有色金属（7.76亿 元）、 电源设备（6.30亿元）、 石油行业（5.19亿元）。 | 电池 | 1.09 | 8.76亿元 | 宁德时代 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 1.39 | 7.76亿元 | 紫等贴,不 | | 电源设备 | 1.4 | 6.30亿元 | 麦格米特 | | 石油行业 | 0.5 | 5.19亿元 | 洲际油气 | *数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议 | | 板块名称 涨跌幅 (%) 板块资金流向 | | 净流入最大 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 半导体 | 1.66 | 89.88亿元 | 中芯国际 | | 计算机设备 | 0.96 | 30.42亿元 | 中国长城 | | 电子元件 | 2.07 | 18.37亿 ...

Core Insights - The main focus of the news is on the significant inflow of capital into specific stocks, indicating strong investor interest and potential growth in these companies. Group 1: Stock Performance and Capital Inflow - Aerospace Electronic (航天电子) saw a capital inflow of 1.374 billion yuan with a price increase of 7.15% [1][2] - New Yisheng (新易盛) experienced a capital inflow of 1.359 billion yuan and a price rise of 3.86% [1][2] - China Great Wall (中国长城) had a capital inflow of 1.229 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 10% in its stock price [1][2] - Zhongke Shuguang (中科曙光) attracted 1.195 billion yuan in capital, reflecting a 5.16% increase [1][2] - SMIC (中芯国际) received 1.042 billion yuan with a stock price increase of 3.98% [1][2] - CATL (宁德时代) had a capital inflow of 930 million yuan, with a modest increase of 0.72% [1][2] - Haiguang Information (海光信息) saw a significant capital inflow of 904 million yuan and a price increase of 12.4% [1][3] - Huatian Technology (华天科技) attracted 856 million yuan with a stock price increase of 10.01% [1][3] - Tongfu Microelectronics (通富微电) had a capital inflow of 788 million yuan and a price increase of 10% [1][3] - Changdian Technology (长电科技) received 647 million yuan with a 5.19% increase in stock price [1][3] - Shengxin Lithium Energy (盛新锂能) saw a capital inflow of 608 million yuan and a price increase of 9.99% [1][3] Group 2: Additional Stocks and Their Performance - Unigroup Guowei (紫光国微) had a capital inflow of 563 million yuan with a price increase of 5.31% [3] - Hikvision (海康威视) attracted 495 million yuan with a stock price increase of 5.27% [3] - Loongson Technology (龙芯中科) saw a significant capital inflow of 462 million yuan and a remarkable price increase of 20% [3] - Intercontinental Oil and Gas (洲际油气) had a capital inflow of 441 million yuan with a price increase of 9.97% [3] - Lanke Technology (澜起科技) received 434 million yuan with a stock price increase of 7.71% [3] - Ganfeng Lithium (赣锋锂业) attracted 397 million yuan with a modest price increase of 2.59% [3] - Zhongtung High-tech (中钨高新) saw a capital inflow of 397 million yuan and a price increase of 9.45% [3] - Magpow (麦格米特) had a capital inflow of 379 million yuan with a price increase of 10% [3] - ZTE Corporation (中兴通讯) attracted 377 million yuan with a stock price increase of 2.15% [3]

板块方面，贵金属、小金属、能源金属等板块涨幅居前，白酒、煤炭开采加工、旅游及酒店等板块跌幅居 前。 (责任编辑：马欣) 中国经济网北京1月21日讯 A股三大指数今日早盘集体上涨，截至午间收盘，上证综指报4120.10点，涨幅 0.16%；深证成指报14263.20点，涨幅0.76%；创业板指报3306.00点，涨幅0.85%。 A股市场板块涨跌幅排行 | 序号 | 板块 | 涨跌幅(%)▼ | | 总成交量（万手）▼ 总成交额（亿元）▼ | 净流入(亿元) ▼ | 上涨家数 | 下跌家数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 音类属 | 6.13 | 905.83 | 216.32 | 12.17 | 10 | 0 | | 2 | 小金属 | 2.90 | 840.44 | 317.46 | 49.19 | ટર | 1 | | 3 | 能源等属 | 2.89 | 303.23 | 149.10 | 21.54 | 12 | 1 | | ব | 元件 | 2.83 | 866.68 | 345.31 | 51.34 | 57 | 3 ...