现货端,随着焦企启动补库,叠加部分中间环节入场买货,焦煤整体成交氛围改善,线上竞拍几乎全线上涨。港口贸易准 () 湿熄焦1490(-10),准一于熄焦1680(-20),炼焦煤价格指数1258.6(+8.5);蒙煤方面,口岸通关维持高位,口岸 易企业报价暂稳,市场成交明显放量,现甘其毛都口岸:蒙5原煤1068(-1),蒙5精煤1197(-3),河北唐山:蒙5精像 1305(-)。期货端:资本市场情绪共振,多有反复,波动较大,不过整体依然是以做多为主,媒焦有所回调,不过现货表 现依然较好。基本面来看,市场进入淡季,产业数据表现较弱,本周钢材表需出现超季节性转弱(可能和节假有关),而钥 材产量增加,导致钢材库存转增,煤矿供给也随着新的一年增加,不过产量对比往年依然偏低。接下来关注下游补库是否 逐渐开启。具体到行情上,随着01交割博弈结束,黑色进入淡季讲"预期"的阶段。板块后续主要看能不能找到足够的" 预期"利好,吸引资金拉涨盘面,让期现入场把现货锁住,形成期现联动上涨。参照过往经验,这种行情在旺季前一 直接下跌,项多涨不动陷入震荡,因此偏向于逢低做多,短期内盘面大幅上涨后需要消化情绪,波动加剧, 外要注意天气回暖 ...

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026年01月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：估值偏高，谨慎追多 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：高位震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：高位震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需矛盾不突出，短期价格窄幅调整 | 8 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 9 | 商 品 研 究 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 819. 5 | -3.0 | -0. 36% | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 653. 307 | -1.527 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 进口矿 | 卡粉(65%) ...

中国统计信息服务中心 卓创资讯 据对全国流通领域9大类50种重要生产资料市场价格的监测显示，2026年1月上旬与2025年12月下旬相 比，27种产品价格上涨，20种下降，3种持平。 | 2026年1月上旬流通领域重要生产资料市场价格变动情况 | | --- | | 产品名称 | 单位 | 本期价格 | 比上期 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 价格涨跌 | (%) | | | | | （元） | | | 一、黑色金属 | | | | | | 螺纹钢（Φ20mm，HRB400E） | 吨 | 3191.6 | 7.0 | 0.2 | | 线材（Φ8—10mm，HPB300） | 吨 | 3385.9 | 6.8 | 0.2 | | 普通中板（20mm，Q235） | 吨 | 3341.7 | -10.6 | -0.3 | | 热轧普通板卷（4.75—11.5mm，Q235） | 吨 | 3275.3 | 2.2 | 0.1 | | 无缝钢管（219*6，20#） | 吨 | 4051.3 | -13.7 | -0.3 | | 角钢（5#） ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2026年01月13日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡为主。淡季螺纹表需继续下滑，产量小幅回升，库存开始累积。热卷需求回落，产量继续小幅回升，库存缓慢去 化，压力仍有待缓解。钢厂利润边际修复，高炉逐步复产，铁水短期继续回升，持续性有待观察。从下游行业看，地产投资降 幅继续扩大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位。市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spring market of stock index futures is established, and the market is expected to continue rising, with the CSI 500 index potentially being the dominant variety among the four major indices [20][22]. - The sentiment in the bond market of treasury bond futures may ease, and there may be short - term trading opportunities in the medium - and long - term contracts [23][24]. - For agricultural products, the overall supply of protein meals is sufficient and the market is under pressure; the international sugar price fluctuates and declines while the domestic sugar price fluctuates slightly; the situation of the oil and fat sector depends on the MPOB report; other agricultural products also have their own market characteristics and trends [26][28][31]. - In the ferrous metal sector, steel prices continue to fluctuate, coking coal and coke prices are driven by funds and sentiment, iron ore prices are treated bearishly at high levels, and ferroalloy prices fluctuate strongly due to cost factors [60][62][65][69]. - For non - ferrous metals, precious metals such as gold and silver rise strongly due to geopolitical risks and non - farm data; other non - ferrous metals also have their own market dynamics and trends affected by various factors [72][73][75][78]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the price of crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East; other energy and chemical products also show different market trends affected by supply, demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [121][123][127][133]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Investment Logic: Since December 16, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen continuously, and the market has accelerated its rise in 2026. Economic data indicates an economic recovery, and the narrowing of the basis of stock index futures reflects investors' confidence. The market is expected to continue rising, and the CSI 500 index may be the dominant variety [20][21][22]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on IC and IM on dips; conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2606 and short ETF; use bull spreads for options [22]. Treasury Bond Futures - Logic Analysis: Although the overall repair trend of CPI and PPI continues, there are still structural problems. The bond market has been weak recently, but there may be short - term trading opportunities in medium - and long - term contracts [23][24]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on dips on a short - term basis; wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meals - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the cost pressure of soybeans is obvious, and the export prospects are not optimistic. Domestically, the subsequent supply of soybeans may decline, and the spot may be supported. The overall trend of meal products is expected to be volatile [27]. - Strategy Suggestion: Adopt a bearish approach for unilateral trading; wait and see for arbitrage; use a short straddle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the sugar price may be affected by the production in the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, the high processing cost and the bottom - building trend of the external market provide support, but there is also sales pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate [30]. - Trading Strategy: The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. For the domestic sugar price, consider going long at the lower end of the range and shorting at the upper end; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [30][31]. Oil and Fat Sector - Logic Analysis: Recently, the oil and fat market has been affected by various factors and fluctuates. The inventory of the three major domestic oils is gradually decreasing, and the palm oil in Malaysia is expected to reduce production and inventory. The market situation is still uncertain [35]. - Trading Strategy: The oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate in the short term with increased volatility; wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Ferrous Metals Steel - Logic Analysis: The steel market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, demand, and raw material prices. The overall trend is to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - news and policy changes [61]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread; wait and see for options [62]. Coking Coal and Coke - Logic Analysis: The recent rise in coking coal prices is mainly driven by funds and sentiment. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [64]. - Strategy Suggestion: Trade in a wide - range shock on a short - term basis; wait and see for arbitrage and options [65]. Iron Ore - Logic Analysis: The price of iron ore is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and funds. The supply is loose, and the domestic demand is expected to decline in the medium term. The price is treated bearishly at high levels [66][68]. - Strategy Suggestion: Go short lightly at high levels; wait and see for arbitrage and options [69]. Ferroalloys - Logic Analysis: For ferrosilicon, the supply may shrink in the future, and the demand and cost are expected to increase. For ferromanganese - silicon, the supply is stable, and the demand and cost also support the price. The overall price fluctuates strongly [70][71]. - Strategy Suggestion: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to the improvement of supply - demand and cost factors; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [71]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Logic Analysis: The non - farm data is mixed, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East intensify the safe - haven sentiment. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain strong in the short term [73]. - Trading Strategy: Enter the market on dips based on the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [75]. Platinum and Palladium - Logic Analysis: The macro - environment is generally tight, and the result of the 232 investigation is the focus. Platinum has a stronger upward drive than palladium. The market is waiting for the official news of the investigation [75][76]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on platinum on dips; be cautious when going long on palladium before the 232 investigation result is announced; wait and see for arbitrage and options [78]. Copper - Logic Analysis: The government's QE policy may lead to more actual monetary easing. In the short term, the domestic consumption is stagnant, but the LME inventory is decreasing. In the long term, the supply of copper mines is tight, and the consumption is growing. The price fluctuates strongly in the short term but maintains an upward trend [79]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the long positions entered at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton; wait and see for arbitrage and options [80]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Logic Analysis: The geopolitical risks in the Middle East drive the oil price to rebound. The oil price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [122][123]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and trade in a wide - range shock; the domestic gasoline is strong, and the diesel is weak, and the oil futures spread is strong; wait and see for options [123]. Asphalt - Logic Analysis: The cost provides support, but the supply - demand is weak. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [124][125]. - Trading Strategy: The situation is not provided in the report. Fuel Oil - Logic Analysis: Geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and the price fluctuates strongly. The high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak in the first quarter, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has a short - term upward trend [127][129]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a short - term shock with caution; pay attention to the FU59 positive spread arbitrage opportunity; wait and see for options [129]. Natural Gas - Logic Analysis: The international LNG price fluctuates at a low level. In the short term, the price is supported by cold weather, but in the long term, the supply is excessive. The HH price in the US is affected by weather and demand [130][131][132]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the short positions of TTF and JKM in the third quarter; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options on TTF or JKM [132]. LPG - Logic Analysis: The geopolitical situation leads to a short - term premium, but the fundamental supply - demand does not support continuous price increases. The price is expected to be under pressure in the long term [133][135]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and be bearish on the far - month contracts in the medium - and long - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [135]. PX & PTA - Logic Analysis: The downstream polyester production cuts increase, but the geopolitical disturbances strengthen the cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [135][136]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; conduct positive spread arbitrage of PX & PTA 3 and 5 contracts; wait and see for options [137]. BZ & EB - Logic Analysis: The inventory of pure benzene continues to increase, and the supply - demand of styrene is relatively balanced. The price of styrene is mainly affected by the cost [139][140]. - Strategy Suggestion: The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term; short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage; wait and see for options [140]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic Analysis: The supply may be adjusted, and the downstream polyester production cuts increase. The price has limited upward space and is expected to fluctuate weakly [142][144]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a weak - shock trend; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [144]. Short Fiber - Logic Analysis: The procurement sentiment is cautious, and the processing fee is under pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [145]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [146]. Bottle Chip - Logic Analysis: Some bottle chip production devices are planned for maintenance, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the raw material cost [147][148]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [149]. Propylene - Logic Analysis: The supply improvement is limited, and the downstream factory procurement is active. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [150][152]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a short - term shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [152]. Plastic PP - Logic Analysis: The PE and PP production has marginal cuts. The L 2605 contract can hold long positions, and the PP 2605 contract needs to pay attention to the pressure level [153][154]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the long positions of the L 2605 contract and set the stop - loss at 6600 points; wait and see for the PP 2605 contract and pay attention to the pressure at 6520 points; wait and see for arbitrage; sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract and set the stop - loss at 58.0 points [154]. Caustic Soda - Logic Analysis: The market sentiment improves, but the supply - demand contradiction continues. The price is expected to fluctuate [155][156]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [157]. PVC - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand is weak. The cost provides support, and the export tax - refund policy has a great impact [158][160]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; wait and see for arbitrage and options [160]. Soda Ash - Logic Analysis: The futures price is strong this week, but the high inventory pressure needs to be tested. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term [160][161][164]. - Trading Strategy: Do not operate against the sentiment, wait and see in the long term and short at an appropriate time; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options at a high level in the far - month [164]. Glass - Logic Analysis: The futures price fluctuates widely this week. The cold - repair of production lines is concentrated, and the inventory shows a downward trend. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term [165][166][168]. - Trading Strategy: Do not operate against the sentiment, wait and see in the long term and short at an appropriate time; wait and see for arbitrage and options [168]. Methanol - Logic Analysis: The international device operation rate is low, the supply in China is loose, and the Middle East situation provides support [169]. - Trading Strategy: Avoid short positions temporarily and go long in the short term; pay attention to the 59 positive spread arbitrage; sell put options on dips [170]. Urea - Logic Analysis: The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has an impact on sentiment, and the demand is affected by various factors. The price fluctuates widely [171][172]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; hedging enterprises can pay attention to hedging opportunities [173]. Pulp - Logic Analysis: The market supply exceeds demand. The supply is stable, and the demand support is limited. The price fluctuates widely at a high level [173][174][176]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; aggressive investors can short a small amount near the previous high; wait and see for arbitrage and options [177]. Log - Logic Analysis: The spot price rebounds slightly. The market is affected by factors such as arrival volume and inventory. Attention should be paid to the delivery situation in Chongqing and Yantai [177][178]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait and see; aggressive investors can arrange long positions in a small amount; pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse spread arbitrage; wait and see for options [180]. Offset Printing Paper - Logic Analysis: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The paper mill's price - holding intention is strong, but the valuation is low. It may fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [181]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait and see; wait and see for arbitrage; sell the OP2602 - C - 4300 option [182][183]. Natural Rubber - Logic Analysis: The tire inventory accumulates for 5 consecutive weeks. The supply is affected by disasters, and the inventory situation of different varieties is different [184][185][186]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the short positions of the RU 05 contract and set the stop - loss at 16135 points; wait and see for the NR 03 contract; hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread and set the stop - loss at +2950 points; sell the RU2605 call 17000 contract and set the stop - loss at 391 points [186][188]. Butadiene Rubber - Logic Analysis: The tire inventory accumulates for 5 consecutive weeks. The warehouse receipt situation of BR is different, and the inventory of tires also accumulates [189][190]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for the BR 03 contract; hold the BR2603 - NR2603 spread and set the stop - loss at - 985 points; wait and see for options [190][191].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The raw materials are stronger than the finished products, and the steel mill profits continue to be compressed. The iron ore pricing is detached from supply - demand, with strong macro - support. The coal - coke supply - demand is subtly repaired, but contradictions are still accumulating. The ferroalloy market is affected by long - short sentiment, and the futures trading may return to the fundamentals [8][77][136][228]. - The macro - environment is generally favorable. The Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "anti - involution", and the special commentator of Qiushi magazine proposed to improve and stabilize the real estate market expectations [10][13]. - For iron ore, although the overseas supply is marginally weakening and the domestic demand is rebounding, the pricing is mainly affected by the upward macro - risk preference, and the ore price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [79]. - For coal - coke, due to event - driven and valuation repair, the supply - demand structure has subtle changes, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The contradictions between supply and demand are still accumulating [139]. - For ferroalloys, the alloy prices first rose and then fell this week, with a slight decline in the price center. The cost side may be supported by ore and coal prices, and the futures may maintain an oscillating trend [230]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - **Supply - demand and profit**: The supply - demand pattern of steel products is loose, but the cost supports the futures price rebound. The strong raw materials and weak finished products lead to the continuous compression of steel mill profits. The iron water production is expected to stop falling and then oscillate upwards, and attention should be paid to the hot - rolled coil inventory [10][14]. - **Rebar**: The basis and spread of rebar show a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The new - house sales remain at a low level, and the market confidence is still sluggish. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is healthy. The steel mill's resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the futures profit [21][26][32][37]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The basis and spread of hot - rolled coil also show a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The demand is flat, and the export order receipt decreases month - on - month. The inventory is high, and production reduction is needed to reduce inventory. The steel mill's resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the futures profit [42][48][49][53][55]. - **Variety spread and regional difference**: Analyzed the price spreads between different steel products (such as cold - hot spread, coil - rebar spread) and regional price differences [59][66]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The overseas iron ore shipments have declined from the high level at the beginning of the year, and there are also disturbances in the acceptance of Jinbuba and the pricing index of Rio Tinto and Fortescue. The supply of non - mainstream mines has some changes, and the domestic mines in the southwest region have significantly increased their production after the New Year [79][90][102]. - **Demand**: The downstream may show a restocking drive before the Spring Festival, and the iron water production has rebounded month - on - month. The substitution effect of scrap steel on iron ore is weakening [79][108]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore remains at a high level [112][115]. - **Price performance**: The main 05 - contract price of iron ore is still strong. The medium - grade iron ore prices are strong in the spot market [83][84]. 3.3 Coal - Coke - **Supply**: The domestic coal production has rapidly recovered, and the Mongolian coal imports are expected to decline in January due to the high port inventory [136]. - **Demand**: The iron water production has increased, and the downstream raw material procurement enthusiasm has improved, but the blast furnace resumption rhythm of steel mills still needs to be observed [137]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal at all levels has increased month - on - month, mainly in independent coking plants and ports [138]. - **Viewpoint**: The coal - coke market will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The contradictions between supply and demand are still accumulating, and investors are advised to try to go long at low prices [139]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon) - **Market trend**: The prices of ferroalloys first rose and then fell this week, with a slight decline in the price center. The cost side may be supported by ore and coal prices, and the futures may maintain an oscillating trend [230]. - **Manganese silicon**: The production has decreased slightly month - on - month. The new round of steel procurement is about to start, and the steel mills may start the restocking rhythm. The manganese ore supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the port prices are firm [237][244][261]. - **Silicon iron**: The production has increased month - on - month. The steel procurement volume of a large factory in Hebei has increased month - on - month, and the raw material restocking rhythm may start. The non - steel demand has some changes, and the inventory has increased [274][279][287][289].

报告导读： 12 月通胀维持稳中有升的态势，其中食品价格的低基数、金价重拾升势、全 球工业金属的狂飙是核心贡献，内需相关的分项价格（如：服务价格、黑色金属）相对稳 定。往后看，核心通胀的韧性预有望延续，但物价弹性的打开仍需内需政策的积极发力。 12月CPI同比增速+0.8%，环比+0.2%；PPI同比增速-1.9%，环比回升至0.2%。 12月通胀保持稳步回升。食品价格低基数是CPI的主要贡献，核心通胀环 比依然处于季节性上沿，同比维持稳定（+1.2%）。12月的金价重拾涨势是核心通胀维持韧性的关键，但中长期回升依然需要居民资产负债表的持续修复。 PPI环比在12月小幅回升，有色金属是主要的贡献。 CPI：食品拖累减轻，服务贡献抬升 PPI：有色延续强势，黑色链条稳定 总体来看，12月的通胀维持稳中有升的态势，其中食品价格的低基数、金价重拾升势、全球工业金属的狂飙是核心贡献，内需相关的分项价格（如：服务价 格、黑色金属）相对稳定。 往后看，核心通胀的韧性预有望延续，但物价弹性的打开仍需内需政策的积极发力。 风险提示： 地产尾部压力依然存在、消费修复动能不及预期。 法律声明 12月PPI同比-1.9%，环比回升 ...

报告类型 黑色金属周报 日期 2026 年 1 月 9 日 021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 黑色品种研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 黑色品种策略推荐 |  | | 黑色品种策略推荐 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1：黑色品种投资策略（仅供参考） | | | | | | | 标的 | 最新 | 策略 | 主导因素 | | | | 价格 | | 方向 | | | | | 单 RB2605 | 3144 | | | | | | 边 | | 震荡 | 板块轮动下的再通胀循环+价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the black commodity market are rated as "Oscillating" [1] Core View of the Report - The black commodity market is currently in a state of oscillation, with different varieties showing different supply - demand situations and price trends. The cost factors and supply - demand relationships of each variety jointly affect their short - term price movements [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Steel Products (including rebar and hot - rolled coils)** - Rebar: The rebar futures price slightly declined, with the 2605 contract closing at 3168 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.6%. The spot price was stable, and the trading volume decreased. The supply increased, inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, and the apparent demand significantly declined. However, cost factors provided support, and it is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price of the main contract i2605 decreased to 813 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.8%. The global shipping volume decreased, while the iron - making water output increased, and the port and steel mill inventories accumulated. The price is expected to oscillate due to the combination of long and short factors [1] - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2605 contract closing at 1190 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 2.23%. The supply increased as mines resumed production, and the market sentiment improved. The demand was resilient, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coke: The coke futures price declined, with the 2605 contract closing at 1765 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.45%. The spot price increased. The production of coke enterprises was relatively stable, and the demand from steel mills increased, but the consumption in the off - season limited the increase in iron - making water output. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5892 yuan/ton, down 1.77%. The market price was between 5650 - 5850 yuan/ton. The cost provided support, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5668 yuan/ton, down 3.18%. The market price was about 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton. The supply was expected to decrease, the demand was supported during the steel procurement period, and the inventory was at a high level. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [3] Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: Different contracts of various varieties showed different spread changes. For example, the 5 - 10 spread of rebar was - 45.0, up 3.0; the 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 21.0, down 2.5 [4] - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For instance, the 05 contract basis of rebar was 152.0, up 19.0; the 05 contract basis of iron ore was 60.0, up 2.9 [4] - **Profit and Cross - variety Spreads**: The profit of rebar showed different trends, such as the rebar futures profit being - 98.9, up 9.8. The cross - variety spreads, like the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, were also provided [4] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts showed the historical price trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2021 to 2026 [6][10][12] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts presented the historical basis trends of the main contracts of various varieties [16][18][21] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts displayed the historical spread trends between different contracts of each variety [25][31][32] - **Cross - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts showed the historical spread trends between different varieties, such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread and the rebar to iron ore ratio [42][44][45] - **Rebar Profit**: Charts presented the historical profit trends of rebar, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][49][50] Black Research Team Members - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, Zhang Chunjie, etc., each with different professional backgrounds and expertise [52][53] Company Information - The company is located at No. 6, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market has weak weekly data, with supply rising and demand seasonally weakening. The weakening basis is beneficial for cash-and-carry arbitrage entry, and short-term sentiment has more pricing power than industrial contradictions [2]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have large fluctuations due to changing market sentiment. Demand is poor and supply is excessive, and the risk of a decline under pressure in the future is relatively large [3]. - After a sharp rise, coking coal and coke have undergone adjustments. The market is in the off-season, and the subsequent trend mainly depends on whether there are sufficient "expectations" to attract funds. It is advisable to go long on dips, but caution is needed due to intensified fluctuations [5]. - Iron ore prices have fallen back after reaching the pressure level. The valuation is moderately high, and it is not recommended to chase long. It is advisable to wait and see [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On January 8, the closing prices of far-month and near-month contracts of various steel products and their changes are provided, including price, basis, spread, ratio, and profit data [1]. - The weekly data of steel is weak, with supply rising and demand seasonally weakening. The weakening basis is beneficial for cash-and-carry arbitrage entry, and short-term sentiment has more pricing power than industrial contradictions [2]. - It is recommended to participate in long positions with stop-loss, and conduct rolling operations for hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage or use option strategies to assist spot procurement [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Recently, market sentiment has been changeable, and the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have fluctuated greatly. Demand is poor, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. Supply is excessive, and the pressure of supply overhang in the medium term remains [3]. - It is recommended that industrial customers hedge on rallies [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - On January 8, the closing prices of far-month and near-month contracts of coking coal and coke and their changes are provided, as well as spot price data [1]. - The spot market is active, but the downstream's willingness to accept high-priced Mongolian coal is not strong. After a sharp rise, the market has adjusted, and the market is in the off-season. It is advisable to go long on dips, but caution is needed due to intensified fluctuations [5]. - It is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have fallen back after reaching the pressure level. The valuation is moderately high, and it is not recommended to chase long. It is advisable to wait and see [6].