请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 黑色商品日报 | | 难有明显增量的现状，但生产企业目前库存压力尚可，本周环比再度下降 7000 吨至 14.9 万吨。综合来看， | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 基本面矛盾不大，预计短期锰硅期价震荡运行为主，关注市场情绪变化。 | | | | 硅铁：周四，硅铁期价震荡走弱，主力合约报收 5624 元/吨，环比下降 0.6%，主力合约持仓环比增加 3795 | | | | 手至 22.2 万手。各地区硅铁汇总价格约 5300-5350 元/吨，宁夏地区较前一日下跌 30 元/吨。近期市场情 | | | 硅铁 | 绪稍有反复，昨日黑色板块走势有所分化，硅铁期价重心随之下移。基本面来看，本周硅铁产量环比略有 | 震荡 | | | 下降，但绝对值仍处于历史同期偏高水平。需求端，样本钢厂硅铁需求量当周值环比小幅增加，绝对值仍 | | | | 然偏低。近期下游产量受影响情况下，钢材需求受到抑制。库存端，60 家样本企业库存周环比基本持平， | | | | 库存端整体压力不大。整体来看，基本面并无较大驱动，预计短期硅铁震荡 ...

2025年08月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宏观预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场信息扰动，日内宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场信息扰动，日内宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 29 日 铁矿石：宏观预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 期货研究 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 1.93% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | I 2601 | | 790. 5 | 15.0 | | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | ...

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国黑色金属行业市场研究分析及前景战略研判报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年6月中国角钢及型钢出口数量为72万吨，同比增长69.6%，出口金额为 3.95亿美元，同比增长48.7%。 近一年中国角钢及型钢出口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年08月28日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价上行,布伦特10合约涨0.82%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期下降239.2万桶,汽油及 精炼油库存也录得下降，体现夏季用油高峰尾声需求仍有韧性。布伦特临近70美元/桶已基本定价俄 鸟和谈僵局相关供应风险的利多影响，在地缘风险进一步发酵前原油或转为震荡走势，关注旺季因 素支撑过后原油的再次做空机会。 【责金属】 隔夜美元波动剧烈，贵金属高位震荡。本周特朗普罢免美联储官员加剧美联储独立性担忧冲击美元 信用,被解雇理事库克将提起诉讼。国际金银处于震荡趋势之中继续测试上方关键阻力，中期维持 回调买入多头思路。今日关注美国二季度GDP修正值和周度初请失业金数据。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走低，市场对经济表现仍偏谨慎，同时等待美国PCE指标，且关注特朗普与美联储独立性间 的博弈，美元指数波动快。国内现铜79585元，精铜消费受多省梳理再生铜补贴政策减停而受益， 现需要时间等待国内废铜报价的博弈调整。今日关注社库，整数关胆力强,高位空单持有。 【铝】 氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位，行业库存和上期所仓单均持续上升。供应过剩逐渐显现 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In the financial futures market, the Fed's policy shows marginal loosening, and the dollar index is in a short - term shock pattern. The RMB exchange rate is expected to run below 7.20 in the short term. The stock index adjustment amplitude and duration are to be observed, the treasury bond may rebound further, and the container shipping index may continue to fall or shock, with the risk of low - level rebound for some contracts [1][2][3][4] - In the commodity market, precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term; copper prices may continue to decline in the short - term; aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term, while alumina is expected to be weak; zinc is in a short - term stalemate; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong; tin is slightly strong; lithium carbonate may have short - term rebound opportunities; industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a shock adjustment stage; lead is in a narrow - range shock; steel products are in a weak pattern; iron ore is expected to shock; coking coal and coke have price constraints; silicon iron and silicon manganese have supply pressure; crude oil is recommended to short at high prices; LPG is expected to be weak in the short - term; PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by cost and sentiment; PP is in a short - term shock pattern; PE is recommended to buy at low prices; pure benzene and styrene are in a shock - falling pattern; fuel oil is under downward pressure; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to be long; asphalt is mainly affected by cost; rubber is expected to be in a range - shock pattern; urea is in a pattern with support and suppression; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to be weak [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September, and service consumption may become a key area. Industrial enterprise profits are still in negative growth, and the overall domestic economic contradiction remains unchanged. The Fed's policy is marginally loosening, and the dollar index is in a short - term shock pattern [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down slightly. The Fed's policy and other factors affect the exchange rate. The short - term dollar - RMB spot exchange rate is expected to run below 7.20 [1][2] Stock Index - The stock index fell sharply, with increased trading volume. Due to profit - taking and policy expectations, the short - term adjustment may continue, but the amplitude and duration are to be observed [2][3] Treasury Bond - The treasury bond rebounded. The stock market's high - level adjustment may provide room for the treasury bond to rebound further [3] Container Shipping - The container shipping index futures prices fell. The current spot price situation and market sentiment are negative for the futures price, and there is a risk of low - level rebound for some contracts [3][4] Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - The precious metals market was slightly strong. The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and personnel adjustment. The short - term is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6][7] Copper - The copper price fell slightly. The dollar index's rebound and demand factors put pressure on the copper price, and the short - term is expected to continue to decline [7][8][9] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term due to policy and demand factors. Alumina is expected to be weak due to supply surplus. Cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong due to cost support [9][10] Zinc - The zinc price was slightly up. The supply is in a surplus state, and the demand is stable. The short - term is expected to be in a shock pattern, and an internal - external arbitrage strategy can be considered [10][11][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - The nickel price rose, and the stainless steel price fell slightly. The market is waiting for a clear signal, and the short - term is expected to be strong, with attention to new energy support [13] Tin - The tin price rose. The supply is relatively tight, and the demand is acceptable. The short - term is expected to be slightly strong [13][14] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated. The market is affected by "small essays", and the short - term may have a rebound opportunity, but the medium - long - term supply is still loose [15][16][17] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - The industrial silicon futures price was slightly up, and the polysilicon futures price fell. The market is affected by unverified news, and it is recommended to wait and see or trade with a shock strategy [17][18] Lead - The lead price fell slightly. The supply is weak, and the demand is in a "not - so - prosperous peak season" situation. The short - term is expected to be in a narrow - range shock pattern [19][20] Black Metals Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil continued to be weak. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The market is affected by coal supply and steel mill production reduction [21][22] Iron Ore - The iron ore price was relatively stable. The previous premium was small, and the short - term price decline space is limited. It is expected to run in a shock pattern [22][23][24] Coking Coal & Coke - The coking coal price was in a shock pattern, and the coke price had a downward pressure. The market is affected by coal supply, steel mill production reduction, and downstream demand [25][26][27] Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese - The supply of silicon iron and silicon manganese increased, and the demand was not significantly improved. The price is affected by coal price and market sentiment, and it is recommended to try long at the 60 - day moving average [27][28] Energy & Chemicals Crude Oil - The international crude oil market was highly volatile. The EIA data was positive, but the market lacked a one - way trend. The Chinese SC crude oil was weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices [29][30][31] LPG - The LPG price was in a shock pattern. The supply is loose, and the demand is stable. The short - term is expected to be weak [32][33] PTA - PX - The PX - TA prices fluctuated widely. The supply is affected by device news, and the demand is seasonally improved. It is recommended to short the processing fee at high prices and conduct a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [34][35][36] MEG - Bottle Chips - The ethylene glycol market had both supply and demand growth. The short - term is expected to be in a shock - strong pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [36][37][38] PP - The PP price was in a shock pattern. The supply is under pressure from new capacity, and the demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to continue the shock pattern [38][39][40] PE - The PE price fell slightly. The supply growth is limited, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to buy at low prices, but attention should be paid to the demand recovery [41][42][43] Pure Benzene & Styrene - The pure benzene and styrene prices fell. The supply and demand of pure benzene are in a complex situation, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase, with attention to the inventory and demand [44][45] Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price was under downward pressure. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is acceptable. The market is affected by sanctions and inventory [46][47] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The low - sulfur fuel oil price was in a shock pattern. The supply is expected to decline, and the demand is weak. The short - term is recommended to be long [47][48] Asphalt - The asphalt price was in a shock pattern. The supply is stable, and the demand is affected by weather and funds. The short - term is mainly affected by cost [48][49][50] Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - The rubber price was in a shock pattern. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is expected to be warm in the third quarter. The short - term is expected to be in a range - shock pattern [50][51][52] Urea - The urea price was in a pattern with support and suppression. The demand is affected by the military parade and export, and the short - term is expected to be in a shock pattern [53] Glass, Soda Ash, Caustic Soda - The soda ash price was in a weak pattern. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is affected by inventory and cost [53][54]

黑色商品日报（2025 年 8 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅调整，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3111 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 量 9.12 万吨。据钢谷网数据，本周全国建材产量增加 5.39 万吨至 408.83 万吨，社库增加 16.03 万吨至 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 下跌 2 元/吨，跌幅为 0.06%，持仓减少 7.34 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普 | | | | 方坯价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3010 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3220 元/吨，全国建材成交 | | | | 617.61 万吨，厂库增加 8.31 万吨至 315.16 万吨，建材表需回落 2.77 万吨至 384.49 万吨。建材产量回升， | | | | 库存累积加快，表需回落，数据表现偏弱。8 月以来螺纹现货市场供需持续弱化，供应增加需求低迷，库 | | | | 存持续逆季节性累积，对盘面走势形成一定压制。预计短期螺纹盘面或震荡偏弱运行。 | | ...

| CTERRE | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 日度黄峪参考 发布日期:2025/ | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 当前市场流动性仍然充裕,A股目成交额突破至2万亿以上,沪指 | | | 股指 | | 突破"924"前高，内外利好因素下市场情绪尚好, 股指或继续偏 强运行。 | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 空间。 201 | | | 真金 | 看多 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振9月降息预期,金价短期料偏强运行。 | | | 白银 | 看多 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振9月降息预期,支撑贵金属,银价短期 或偏强运行。 | | | 국미 | 看多 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振美联储降息预期,短期铜价偏强运行 | | | GD | | 美联储降息预期提升,但消费淡季下,国内铝下游需求承压,铝 价震荡运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝产量及库存双增,基本面偏弱施压价格,但几内亚正值雨 | | | 国化品 | | 季,铝土 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 08 月 26 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 776.5 | 787.0 | -10.5 | I01-I05 | 22.5 | 24.0 | -1.5 | | DCE05 | 754.0 | 763.0 | -9.0 | I05-I09 | -43.0 | -43.5 | 0.5 | | DCE09 | 797.0 | 806.5 | -9.5 | I09-I01 | 20.5 | 19.5 | 1.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉 | 780 | 767 | 13 | 822 | 27 | 51 | 8 | | 纽曼粉 | 776 | 764 | 12 | 829 | 34 | 58 | 14 | | 麦克粉 | 766 | 755 | 11 | 830 | 35 | 59 | 15 | | ...

| ER FARFER | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | 2025/08/26 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | Z0010820 | F0286636 | 黄志鸿 | Z0015761 | F3051824 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | Z0020036 | F03094002 | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | 7000 | 1000 | 12605 | RB2601 | JM2605 | HC2601 | J2605 ...

黑色金属日报 2025 年 08 月 26 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 淵時 | | RB05 | 3223 | 3261 | -38 | HC05-RB05 | 138 | 127 | JI | | RB10 | 3113 | 3138 | -25 | HC10-RB10 | 254 | 251 | 3 | | RB01 | 3182 | 3224 | -39 | HC01-RB01 | 172 | 153 | Ta | | RB01-RB05 | -38 | -37 | -1 | RB10-RB01 | -72 | -86 | 14 | | RB05-RB10 | 110 | 123 | -13 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -10 | -12 | 2 | RB05/105 | 4.27 | 4. ...