来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属普涨，仅沪锌唯一下跌，跌幅达0.22%。沪铅及沪锡一同涨逾1%，沪铅涨 1.09%，沪锡涨1.53%，其余金属涨幅均在1%以内。氧化铝主连跌0.29%，铸造铝主连涨0.1%。 此外，碳酸锂主连跌0.62%，多晶硅主连涨0.66%，工业硅主连涨0.05%。欧线集运主连大涨6.74%报 1471.9。 黑色系方面涨跌互现，不锈钢跌0.32%，铁矿跌0.19%。螺纹涨0.71%，热卷涨0.27%。双焦方面，焦煤 跌0.79%，焦炭跌1.99%。 外盘方面，截至15:06分，外盘基本金属集体上涨，伦锡以1.73%的涨幅领涨，其余金属涨幅均在1%以 内。 贵金属方面，截至15:06分，COMEX黄金涨0.45%，COMEX白银涨1.95%，盘中最高冲至54.65美元/盎 司，续刷其上市以来的历史新高。国内方面，沪金涨0.76%，沪银涨3.21%，沪银盘中最高触及12755元/ 千克，四连涨后同样续刷其上市以来的历史新高。 截至今日15:06分行情 【北京：重点发展AI电视、AI手机、AI眼镜等新型智能终端产品和服务】《北京市促进"人工智能+视 听"产业高质量发展行 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3093 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 下跌 6 元/吨，跌幅为 0.19%，持仓减少 13.1 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普 | | | | 方坯价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2970 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.27 万 | | | | 吨。据我的钢铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回落 1.88 万吨至 206.08 万吨，同比减少 21.8 万吨；社库环 | | | | 比回落 15.27 万吨至 384.75 万吨，同比增加 82.36 万吨；厂库环比回落 6.59 万吨至 146.73 万吨，同比增加 | | | | 1.48 万吨；螺纹表需环比回落 2.85 万吨至 227.94 吨，同比增加 2.59 万吨。螺纹产量小幅回落，库存维持 | | | | 较明显下降，表需小幅回落，供 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market shows mixed trends across various commodities, with geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and policy expectations influencing prices. Each commodity has its own unique supply - demand situation and price - influencing factors, and the overall market lacks a unified trend [2][4][21] - For financial products such as stocks and bonds, geopolitical and macro - economic factors also play important roles, and short - term caution is recommended [48][49] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Night - time international oil prices rose slightly. Market expectations for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict are still wavering. OPEC may maintain its production policy, and the increasing expectation of a December Fed rate cut boosts oil prices [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market showed a differentiated performance overnight. High - sulfur fuel oil rose slightly with the cost of crude oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil was weak. In the future, the overall contradiction is limited, with high - sulfur fuel oil affected by geopolitical risks and low - sulfur fuel oil having sufficient supply [22] - **Asphalt**: The commercial inventory of asphalt is decreasing faster. The December production plan is lower year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand will decline seasonally, and the market is expected to be loose at the end of the year, putting pressure on prices [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals showed a volatile performance. The uncertainty of interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects led to high - level oscillations. On the first day of the listing of platinum futures, the price fluctuated sharply, and attention should be paid to the strategy of shorting volatility [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The average copper price this year was strong. Next year, the growth rate gap between supply and demand may narrow, and the price increase will be supported by factors such as liquidity and demand for green carbon and intelligent computing. Short - term, a small amount of chasing up can be attempted [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The industry has limited contradictions, and the price will mainly oscillate [5] - **Zinc**: Overseas funds have a strong influence. The domestic ore supply is tightening, and the bottom support is strong, but the consumption outlook is under pressure. The short - term price will oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the decline of the external market has slowed down. The domestic supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price will oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated, and the market sentiment was cold. The cost support of stainless steel continued to decline, and the price is recommended to be shorted on rebounds [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin turned down. Shanghai tin broke through 300,000 yuan and then adjusted. Pay attention to the inventory changes this week. It is recommended to short on rallies and hedge risks with call options [11] - **Ferroalloys**: - **Silicon Manganese**: The market has an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee. The production is at a relatively high level, the inventory is slowly increasing, and the bottom support is expected to move down [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee. The demand has resilience, the supply is at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea futures price continued to rise, and the spot market rose slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the supply - demand surplus pattern is expected to continue [24] - **Methanol**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The short - term can consider unilateral long or positive spread trading, but the high inventory in ports may suppress the price increase [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The US gasoline crack spread has weakened. The domestic device load has been slightly adjusted down, and the price will oscillate [26] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The supply - demand structure has been slightly improved, the profit has been repaired, and the price will continue to oscillate [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene in Shandong is slightly tight, and the price has risen, but the cost pressure on downstream products may limit the increase. The supply of polyethylene is stable, and the demand is weakening [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating. The export situation may improve, and the price may stop falling and stabilize. Caustic soda is also oscillating, with high inventory and weak demand [29] - **PX & PTA**: The short - term supply - demand of PX is weakening, but the medium - term is expected to be strong. PTA is driven by cost, and the processing margin is expected to be repaired [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output has decreased, and the supply has improved marginally, but the medium - term is still weak [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - grade chip demand is weakening, and the cost is the main driving factor [32] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the supply is loose. Pay attention to the signing and implementation of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement and South American weather [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The overseas supply - demand of palm oil is weak, but the marginal negative factors have eased. Soybean oil is affected by the price of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus of the rapeseed market is on the customs clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. The external market has a short - term boost to rapeseed meal, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [38] - **Corn**: The north port corn price is firm, and the supply and transportation of northeast corn are a concern. The downstream inventory is low, and the replenishment intention has increased. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the northeast [40] - **Livestock & Poultry Products**: - **Hogs**: The number of fertile sows has decreased, and the industry is reducing production capacity. The short - term price is weak, and the long - term may form a double - bottom pattern [41] - **Eggs**: The market is trading on the expectation of a decline in future inventory. The long - term supply pressure is expected to ease, and the fundamentals are expected to improve [42] - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: US cotton has rebounded. The domestic cotton cost provides support, and the sales progress is fast. The cotton yarn market is weak, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [43] - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient. The expected sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is relatively good, and attention should be paid to the production situation [44] - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term price is strong, but the long - term may face inventory pressure. Pay attention to the de - stocking situation [45] - **Wood**: The futures price is oscillating. The low inventory provides support, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [46] - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price has continued to fall. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, the supply is loose, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47] Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) shows a differentiated trend. The far - month contract is under pressure from the resumption of navigation expectations, and the near - month contract is dragged down by the weak spot market. Consider the reverse spread strategy for near - month contracts [21] - **Financial Products**: - **Stock Index**: The stock market closed down, and the futures index also fell. Geopolitical and macro - economic factors have an impact. A wait - and - see and defensive strategy is recommended [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures closed down, and the market is trading lightly. The price will oscillate weakly in the range, and cautious operation is recommended [49]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the meso - level rotation of commodities, aiming to combine "subjective + quantitative" concepts. It provides a theoretical foundation for subsequent model building [1][63]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The report emphasizes the construction of a dynamic cognitive system for investment. It analyzes the rotation phenomena and mechanisms in the equity and commodity futures markets, and constructs a research framework for macro - and fundamental - valuation rotation in the inventory cycle. It also quantifies the meso - level rotation targets as commodity "variety clusters" [1][63][64]. Summary by Directory 1. Significance of Meso - level Research - In the financial market, a dynamic cognitive system is needed for investment. Since 2022, the Chinese commodity futures market has changed, with lower volatility and reduced effectiveness of factors. Research on meso - level "commodity collections" can avoid co - decline risks, capture structural opportunities, and identify potential trends [3]. 2. Meso - level Rotation in the Equity Market 2.1 Rotation Phenomenon in the Equity Market - The size premium and value premium in the Fama - French three - factor model are core factors for explaining stock return differences, providing a theoretical basis for style rotation [4]. 2.2 Formation Mechanism: Cycle Alternation and Capital Game - **Cycle Alternation (Top - down)**: Style rotation in the equity market stems from the cycle of the economic cycle. Different stages of the economic cycle lead to different dominant styles, such as small - cap and growth styles in the early recovery stage, and large - cap and value styles in other stages [10][12]. - **Capital Game (Bottom - up)**: Style rotation is driven by the game between existing and marginal funds. Existing funds lead to style differentiation, marginal funds strengthen the style, and style conversion occurs when the valuation deviates from the fundamentals [15][16]. 3. Meso - level Rotation in the Commodity Futures Market 3.1 Rotation Phenomenon in the Commodity Futures Market - By analyzing the rotation speed, intensity, long - short suitability of the first and last positions, and the distribution of the first and last positions of commodity futures market indices, it is verified that there is a rotation phenomenon in the commodity futures market. The first - place average return is 5.79%, the last - place is - 4.43%, and the average difference is 10.22% [22][26][29]. 3.2 Formation Mechanism: Game between Reality and Expectation in the Inventory Cycle - The meso - level rotation in the commodity futures market is driven by the transfer of the main contradiction in the inventory cycle. Different stages of the inventory cycle have different logics, such as "reality - driven, expectation - following" in the passive de - stocking stage and "expectation - driven, reality - pressured" in the passive re - stocking stage [30][33][34]. 3.3 Dynamic Framework: Rotation of Macro - financial and Fundamental Valuations - A preliminary research framework for macro - and fundamental - valuation rotation in the inventory cycle is constructed based on Bayesian thinking. The reality side is represented by fundamental valuation, and the expectation side is represented by macro - valuation [40][44]. 4. From Sector to Variety Cluster Rotation - Sector indices have limitations, so variety clusters are introduced. By considering the industrial chain and return clustering, 16 variety clusters are divided, including those in the black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, agricultural, and precious metal sectors. The variety clusters have lower correlation and better risk - dispersion properties [49][57][60]. 5. Summary - The report combines "subjective + quantitative" concepts. It analyzes the rotation phenomena and mechanisms in the equity and commodity markets, constructs a research framework, and divides variety clusters, providing a theoretical basis for subsequent model building [63][64][65].

Core Viewpoint - The construction of "waste-free cities" is crucial for promoting green and low-carbon development, enhancing urban governance, and achieving sustainable economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 1: Industrial Solid Waste Management - The city of Liaocheng has been improving its solid waste management system, focusing on industrial solid waste as a key task in building a "waste-free city" [1] - The Industrial and Information Technology Bureau has been promoting the comprehensive utilization of industrial solid waste resources through source reduction and comprehensive utilization [1] Group 2: Source Reduction and Equipment Upgrades - Emphasis on reducing industrial solid waste at the source by phasing out outdated equipment that generates significant waste and promoting technological upgrades in traditional industries [2] - Over 200 enterprises have participated in energy and green diagnostics to enhance resource utilization efficiency [2] - More than 1,000 energy-saving, water-saving, and environmentally friendly technologies and equipment have been promoted since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] Group 3: Demonstration and Policy Support - Creation of resource comprehensive utilization pilot bases, with Chaping District selected as a pilot base for industrial resource utilization in Shandong Province [3] - Support for the establishment of 32 national-level and 73 provincial-level green manufacturing units, along with 153 city-level green manufacturing units [3] - Policies have been introduced to encourage enterprises to engage in industrial solid waste resource utilization, including financial incentives for compliance and performance [3] Group 4: Future Directions - The Industrial and Information Technology Bureau plans to deepen the construction of the green manufacturing system and improve the industrial chain for solid waste resource utilization [4] - There is a focus on exploring standardized and large-scale comprehensive utilization of red mud to enhance the quality and efficiency of industrial solid waste utilization [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of steel products is expected to be narrow - range consolidation. The production of building materials has declined, inventory reduction has increased, and apparent demand has slightly decreased. The current market is in the off - season, and there is insufficient upward drive for prices [1]. - The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be volatile. The shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil have decreased, iron - making water production has declined, and the inventory of imported iron ore at ports has decreased [1]. - The short - term trend of coking coal is expected to be wide - range volatility. The supply shortage has eased, downstream procurement is cautious, and coal mines face shipping pressure [1]. - The short - term trend of coke is expected to be wide - range volatility. The cost of coke enterprises has improved, inventory is accumulating, and steel mills' demand for coke has decreased [1]. - The short - term trend of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is expected to be volatile. The raw material cost trends are divergent, the overall fundamentals have limited drivers, and the inventory pressure is large [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel Products**: The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3099 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 100,000 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and the national building materials trading volume was 93,200 tons. This week, the national building materials production decreased by 120,400 tons to 3.6401 million tons, social inventory decreased by 162,100 tons to 5.9671 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 94,400 tons to 3.3191 million tons, and the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 47,700 tons to 3.8966 million tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 797 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 200,000 lots and a decrease of 17,000 lots in positions. The prices of mainstream port spot varieties showed a mixed trend. The supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, iron - making water production decreased by 6,000 tons to 2.3628 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate decreased by 1.3% to 37.67%. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 157.3485 million tons, a decrease of 779,900 tons from the previous period, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 750,000 tons to 90.01 million tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1084.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.14%, with a decrease of 20,519 lots in positions. The price of main coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi decreased by 90 yuan to 1580 yuan/ton ex - factory. The supply shortage has eased, and downstream procurement is cautious [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1619 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton or 1.46%, with an increase of 768 lots in positions. The spot price of coke at ports decreased. The cost of coke enterprises has improved, and the inventory is accumulating [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract of manganese silicon closed at 5630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.25% from the previous day, with a decrease of 14,855 lots in positions to 370,000 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions was 5480 - 5670 yuan/ton. The raw material cost trends are divergent, and the inventory pressure is large [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon closed at 5416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.7% from the previous day, with an increase of 11,668 lots in positions to 229,300 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in various regions was about 5080 - 5150 yuan/ton. The cost support expectation is weak, and the overall new drivers are limited [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The 1 - 5 month spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon were - 17.0, 9.0, 23.5, - 146.0, - 92.0, - 52.0, and 16.0 respectively, with corresponding changes of 2.0, - 1.0, - 1.0, - 0.5, 6.0, 10.0, and 0.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 01 contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon were 151.0, - 14.0, 50.7, 3.0, 143.5, - 130.0, and - 192.0 respectively, with corresponding changes of 7.0, - 5.0, 0.3, 13.1, 1.5, - 14.0, and 2.0 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou were 3250.0, 3220.0, and 3470.0 yuan/ton respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou were 3290.0, 3290.0, and 3340.0 yuan/ton respectively; the spot price of PB powder was 798.0 yuan/ton; the spot price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1460.0 yuan/ton; the spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1420.0 yuan/ton; the spot prices of manganese silicon in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guangxi were 5480.0, 5500.0, and 5530.0 yuan/ton respectively; the spot prices of ferrosilicon in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai were 5100.0, 5120.0, and 5150.0 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: The rebar's disk profit was - 68.6, the long - process profit was - 109.2, and the short - process profit was 38.0. The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 205.0, the rebar to iron ore ratio was 3.9, the coking coal to iron ore ratio was 1.5, the coke to iron ore ratio was 2.0, the rebar to coke ratio was 1.9, and the difference between the two silicons was 238.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][10][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report presents the basis charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][19][21][22][23][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 01 - 05 and 05 - 10 (or 05 - 09) contract spread charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][32][34][35][38][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The report presents the charts of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, rebar to coke ratio, coke to iron ore ratio, coking coal to coke ratio, and difference between the two silicons of the main contracts [44][46][48]. - **Rebar Profits**: The report presents the charts of the rebar's disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [50][53]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: The assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry's spot trading, research, and consulting [55]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: The director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [55]. - **Liu Xi**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [55]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity, but consumer spending has declined, and the downward pressure on the economic fundamentals persists, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index. The A-share market remains in a state of shrinking trading volume, and the market may enter a period of wait - and - see due to the marginal decline in liquidity. The bond market may experience a slight recovery after a significant decline, but it remains weak in the near term. Steel prices are oscillating, with limited upward drivers. Nickel investors can consider closing short positions and potentially going long. Oil prices have rebounded despite an increase in EIA crude inventories [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's Beige Book indicates that tariffs increase corporate financial pressure. Gold prices oscillated and closed higher. The market's risk appetite remained high, and the expectation of a December interest - rate cut by the Fed was further strengthened. Gold is expected to continue its oscillating trend in the short term [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax increase. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased. The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity but a decline in consumer spending. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [13][14][15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market showed shrinking trading volume and divergence. Six departments issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand. The market may enter a wait - and - see period due to the marginal decline in liquidity. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [17][18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 216,000. The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity. US economic data indicates that the economy remains resilient, and the market risk appetite has improved. It is advisable to maintain a bullish view overall and observe if the 50 - day moving average can provide strong support [20][21][22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 213.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 9.72 billion yuan. If the new regulations on fund fees are implemented in the short term, the bond market may rebound significantly. Otherwise, the bond market may experience a slight recovery after a significant decline but will remain weak. It is recommended to expect a short - term recovery but remain bearish on the market [24][25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data shows a 3.24% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 20. The supply pressure on palm oil has eased, and the price has stabilized. It is advisable to wait for subsequent data [27]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in December is about 9.048 million tons, and the estimated soybean crushing volume in December is 9.569 million tons. The futures prices of soybeans are expected to remain oscillating. It is necessary to continue to monitor China's purchase of US soybeans and the weather in South American producing areas [28][29][30][31]. 2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is weakening. The supply of coking coal is increasing, while the demand for coke from steel mills is seasonally declining. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream restocking situation [32][33]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In mid - November, the daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 1.943 million tons. Steel prices are oscillating. The recent increase in steel prices is related to policy expectations and cost support, but the demand does not support a significant increase. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [33][35][36]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Three cold air masses will affect China. After the completion of winter stockpiling, coal prices are driven by actual supply and demand. It is necessary to monitor whether the daily coal consumption turns positive in December to support coal prices at a seasonal high [37]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - 230 steel enterprises have completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation. Ore prices are expected to remain high and oscillating in December. It is advisable to wait and see [38][39]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - European copper smelter Aurubis rejects low offers for copper concentrates. AI - driven data centers are becoming a new engine for copper demand. Macro - factors are mixed, and copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillating. It is recommended to go long on dips [40][41][42]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $28.49 per ton. The short - term fundamentals of lead are not weak. It is advisable to close short positions on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [43][44]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $140.2 per ton. There is a risk of a mid - term squeeze on LME zinc. It is recommended to hold long positions in the calendar spread in the short term and exit the domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage in a timely manner [45][46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - On November 26, LME nickel inventory increased by 1,038 tons. The smelting sector is gradually implementing production cuts, but the balance sheet still shows an oversupply. It is advisable for previous short - sellers to gradually close their positions and consider going long on dips. The situation of resource contraction in Indonesia needs to be evaluated in the medium term [47][48][49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The UK will include critical mineral reserves in its defense procurement plan. The lithium battery market has optimistic expectations, but there are still differences in short - term market sentiment. It is not recommended to chase the long side. If production resumes and demand weakens in the off - season, it is advisable to go short on the right side. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips [50][51]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreased, and EIA commercial crude inventories increased. Oil prices rebounded. It is expected that oil prices will remain oscillating and weak in the short term [51][52][53]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt increased. The asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that asphalt prices will oscillate in the short term [54][55]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory decreased significantly, but it is not a substantial positive factor. It is not recommended to go short, but it is advisable to wait and see for short - selling opportunities [56][57]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong showed mixed changes. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The short - term futures price is expected to remain weak. It is necessary to monitor whether supply reduction occurs due to profit compression [58][60][62]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased. The decline in inventory supports the urea futures price. It is necessary to continue to monitor the release rhythm of winter storage demand [63][64]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import wood pulp spot market showed mixed price changes. It is expected that the pulp market will oscillate in the future [65][66]. 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Chinese ports will resume loading and unloading US soybeans. The spot price of W50 has dropped more than expected, and the European line futures price has declined. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space and is over - valued [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2][7] - Ferrosilicon: A large number of warehouse receipts are registered, and attention should be paid to position risks [2][12] - Silicomanganese: Cost provides bottom support, wide - range oscillation [2][13] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2][16] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2][16] - Logs: Weak oscillation [2][18] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend analysis for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, based on their fundamentals and macro - industry news [2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price was 794.0 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan or 0.44%. The positions decreased by 12,429 hands. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores increased slightly. The basis and spreads showed minor changes [4] - **Macro - industry news**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, and the cumulative growth rate from January to October was 6.1% [4] - **Trend strength**: - 1, indicating a bearish view [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,106 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.71%. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, it was 3,309 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan or 0.64%. Spot prices in some regions increased. The basis and spreads changed [7] - **Macro - industry news**: In mid - November, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 2.5% month - on - month. In November 20th steel union weekly data, production, inventory, and apparent demand of steel products changed. In October, national steel production data showed declines in some aspects, and import and export data also changed [8][9] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed. Spot prices of related products and raw materials also showed changes. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [13] - **Macro - industry news**: On November 25th, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported [13] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal JM2601, the closing price was 1,086 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan or 1.0%. For coke J2601, it was 1,643 yuan/ton, up 10.5 yuan or 0.6%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions remained stable. The basis and spreads changed [16] - **Macro - industry news**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026 [16] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [17] Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed changes. Spot prices of various types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were mostly stable, with some showing small declines [19] - **Macro - industry news**: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs from November 10th, 2025 [21] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral view [21]

Group 1: Research Views Steel Products - Yesterday, the rebar futures market fluctuated and rose. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 1.05% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 80,700 lots in positions. Spot prices increased, and trading volume rebounded. The inventory of building materials and hot-rolled coils decreased, and the total inventory pressure was significantly relieved. However, the market has entered the off-season, and the upward driving force for rebar prices is insufficient. It is expected that the short-term rebar futures market will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range [1]. Iron Ore - Yesterday, the price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 rose. It closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.6% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 310,000 lots and a decrease of 11,000 lots in positions. The supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, while that from other countries increased. The demand and inventory also changed. In the short term, the ore price shows a fluctuating trend [1]. Coking Coal - Yesterday, the coking coal futures market declined. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1096.5 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.59%, with an increase of 1800 lots in positions. Due to factors such as winter environmental protection restrictions and coal mine safety inspections, the supply of coking coal is difficult to increase significantly. The market sentiment has weakened, and the procurement rhythm of some coking and steel enterprises has slowed down. It is expected that the short-term coking coal futures market will fluctuate widely [1]. Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures market rose. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1632.5 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 1.11%, with a decrease of 1325 lots in positions. The cost of coking coal has decreased, and the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises has improved. However, the demand from steel mills has decreased. It is expected that the short-term coke futures market will fluctuate widely [1]. Manganese Silicon - On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5630 yuan/ton, up 0.5% month-on-month, with a decrease of 41,457 lots in positions to 398,000 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions is 5480 - 5670 yuan/ton. The northern basis point price is lower than the factory production cost, and the actual trading volume is still limited. The new production capacity in Inner Mongolia has been postponed. It is expected that the short-term manganese silicon futures market will mainly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and production changes in the main producing areas [1][2]. Ferrosilicon - On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5456 yuan/ton, up 0.04% month-on-month, with an increase of 2936 lots in positions to 208,100 lots. The comprehensive price of ferrosilicon in various regions is about 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton. The production cost remains high, and some enterprises have reduced production. The demand has improved slightly, but the overall boost is limited. It is expected that the short-term ferrosilicon futures market will mainly fluctuate, and continuous attention should be paid to the start-up, cost, and new round of steel tenders in the main producing areas [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest data and month-on-month changes of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various varieties such as rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as profit, spread, and other data [3]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through charts [5][7][9][13]. 3.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [15][17][20][22]. 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report displays the inter - period contract spread trends of rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [24][31][32][36][40]. 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads - The report presents the inter - variety contract spread trends of the main contracts, including the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the difference between double silicon, through charts [42][44][46]. 3.5 Rebar Profits - The report shows the profit trends of the main rebar contract, including the disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit, through charts [47][51]. Group 4: Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, along with their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54].

Group 1: Energy and Metals - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with the Brent 01 contract up 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains [1]. - Precious metals rose overnight. With multiple Fed officials advocating a December rate cut, the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Copper prices oscillated overnight. The domestic spot market shows a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly overnight. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The price adjustment may continue, with support at around 21,100 yuan [4]. - Alumina supply is in an oversupply pattern, and it will mainly operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow [6]. - Zinc prices found support at the 60 - day moving average. The LME zinc 0 - 3 month spot premium remains high. The rebound height of Shanghai zinc is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Lead prices are looking for support at the annual line. The export of lead - acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the stainless - steel cost support continues to move down [9]. - Tin prices are mainly considered for short - selling, and call options can be used to hedge risks [10]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated sharply at high levels, and risk control should be prioritized [11]. - Polysilicon futures prices maintain an oscillating pattern due to weak supply and demand [12]. - Industrial silicon futures maintain an oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of silicone prices [13]. - Steel prices oscillated narrowly at night. Supply pressure is gradually easing, and demand is still weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - Iron ore fundamentals are becoming more relaxed, and the price is expected to oscillate [15]. - Coke prices may oscillate weakly [16]. - Coking coal prices may oscillate weakly [17]. - Silicomanganese prices oscillated. The bottom support expectation has moved down [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19]. - The SCFIS European route index rose significantly. The 02 contract may maintain a discount, and the price of the 12 contract has limited up - and - down space [20]. - Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22]. Group 2: Chemicals - Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [23]. - Methanol futures rose sharply. You can try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices, but beware of weak reality [24]. - Pure benzene continues the idea of short - selling on rebounds, and options can be considered for allocation [25]. - Styrene supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the sustainability of support is questionable, and the rebound height is limited [26]. - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices have certain low - level support, but the supply pressure of polyethylene increases, and the demand of polypropylene and polyethylene is weak [27]. - PVC may follow the cost, and caustic soda runs weakly [28]. - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production, and PTA is mainly driven by cost [29]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a short - term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30]. - Short - fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by cost [31]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production and wait for the Sino - US trade agreement [35]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Palm oil supply is increasing while demand is weak [36]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are supported by supply shortages. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [37]. - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38]. - Corn futures oscillated at a high level. There are still differences in the new - season corn output. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39]. - Live hog futures had a large increase in the far - month contract. The price may have a second bottoming next year [40]. - Egg prices: Pay attention to the spot price performance and the convergence of the basis [41]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - Sugar prices: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production expectations are good. Pay attention to production progress [43]. - Apple prices oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [44]. - Wood prices oscillated. Low inventory supports prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Pulp prices fell slightly. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rose in a narrow range with shrinking volume. The short - term macro - liquidity uncertainty restricts the market. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but there may be phased adjustments [48].