今 日 早 评 温馨提示： 根据《上海期货交易所交易规则》等有关规定，现将铸造 铝合金期货合约上市挂牌基准价通知如下： AD2511、AD2512、AD2601、AD2602、AD2603、AD2604、 AD2605合约的挂牌基准价为18365元/吨。 重点品种： 【短评-原油】路透社调查发现，5月OPEC原油产量较4月增 加15万桶/日，达到2675万桶/日，但低于计划的增产幅度，在 OPEC+协议中，阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿 联酋这五个OPEC成员国计划在5月增产31万桶/日，但实际仅增 产18万桶/日；伊朗外交部发言人：下一轮与美国的核谈判预计 将于周日在阿曼举行。6月9日，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表 示，伊朗已将铀浓缩排除在谈判议题之外；中美经贸磋商机制 首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行。评：美伊谈判和俄乌谈判进展 情况，OPEC+增产量偏少，美国关税政策影响阶段性原油走势。 短期低库存对油价存在支撑。长期需持续跟踪OPEC+增产落实情 况。短期短线参与。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-19元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利5元 ...

Core Insights - The rapid growth of stablecoins and the introduction of regulations such as Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation and the US GENIUS Act have made stablecoins a focal point in the market [2][11] - The impact of stablecoin flows on short-term US Treasury yields is significant, with a net inflow of $3.5 billion leading to a decrease in 3-month Treasury yields by approximately 2-2.5 basis points within 10 days [2][6] - Conversely, outflows have a more pronounced effect, with a $3.5 billion outflow resulting in an increase of about 6-8 basis points in yields [2][6] - The influence of stablecoin flows is primarily concentrated in the short end of the yield curve, particularly affecting 3-month Treasury yields, while having minimal spillover effects on 2-year and 5-year yields [2][6] - Continued rapid expansion of the stablecoin market could significantly depress short-term Treasury yields, potentially disrupting the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy transmission [2][7] Group 1: Stablecoins and Safe Asset Prices - The total asset management scale of dollar stablecoins exceeded $200 billion by March 2025, surpassing the holdings of major foreign investors like China in short-term US securities [4][12] - Stablecoin issuers, particularly Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), support their tokens primarily through US Treasury bills and money market instruments, making them key players in the short-term debt market [4][12] - In 2024, dollar stablecoins purchased nearly $40 billion in US Treasury bills, comparable to the largest government money market funds in the US [4][12] Group 2: Data and Methodology - The research utilized daily frequency data from January 2021 to March 2025, sourced from various platforms including CoinMarketCap and Yahoo Finance [5][16] - The study focused on the 3-month Treasury yield as the primary variable, employing a simple univariate local projection model to analyze the impact of stablecoin flows [5][23] Group 3: Empirical Research on Stablecoin Flows - The empirical results indicate that a total inflow of $3.5 billion in stablecoins correlates with a decrease of approximately 2.5 basis points in the 3-month Treasury yield within 10 days, and up to 5 basis points within 20 days [6][35] - The contributions of different stablecoin issuers to yield changes were analyzed, with USDT accounting for approximately -1.54 basis points (70% of the total impact) and USDC contributing about 19% [6][38] Group 4: Discussion and Policy Implications - The potential for stablecoin market expansion to compress short-term Treasury yields raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's control over short-term interest rates [7][40] - The transparency of reserves is crucial, with USDC's disclosures being more transparent compared to USDT, highlighting the need for standardized reporting to mitigate systemic risks [7][41] - The strong demand for Treasuries from stablecoins may exacerbate the "safe asset scarcity" issue faced by non-bank financial institutions, affecting liquidity premiums [8][40]

Group 1: Stablecoin Market Impact - The total market capitalization of stablecoins exceeded $200 billion by March 2025, surpassing the holdings of major foreign investors like China in short-term U.S. securities[2] - Stablecoins, particularly Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), significantly influence the short-term debt market, purchasing nearly $40 billion in U.S. Treasury securities in 2024[2] - A net inflow of $3.5 billion in stablecoins can lead to a decrease of approximately 2-2.5 basis points in the 3-month Treasury yield within 10 days[1] Group 2: Empirical Findings - The study found that a $3.5 billion inflow of stablecoins correlates with a decline in the 3-month Treasury yield of up to 25 basis points over 30 days[3] - The impact of stablecoin outflows on Treasury yields is more pronounced, with a $3.5 billion outflow resulting in an increase of approximately 6-8 basis points[1] - USDT contributes about -1.54 basis points to the yield impact, accounting for 70% of the total effect, while USDC contributes around 19%[4] Group 3: Policy Implications - The rapid expansion of the stablecoin market may significantly lower short-term Treasury yields, potentially disrupting the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy transmission[5] - Regulatory measures for standardized and transparent reserve reporting are crucial to mitigate systemic risks associated with concentrated Treasury holdings by stablecoins[5] - The strong demand for Treasuries from stablecoins could exacerbate the "safe asset scarcity" issue faced by non-bank financial institutions, affecting liquidity premiums[5]

美国市场正处于一个罕见的"叠加时刻"：特朗普既像典型的共和党那样大力减税，又延续民主党级别的 超高支出，美股则重现80年代去监管与90年代科技牛市的合体盛宴。 近日，美银首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett在最新报告中犀利指出，美国政府正在以7万亿美元的支出 对抗5万亿美元的收入，2万亿美元的赤字缺口让美元在5%国债收益率下依然暴跌。市场欢乐的背后， 是美元崩跌、债务激增与AI驱动下的不确定性。 "减税+撒钱"下的危局，美元失色，债务无底 美银的数据显示，自大选以来，代表权贵科技与金融的"bro billionaire"股票篮子暴涨45%，而代表特 朗普票仓的小盘股罗素2000指数却下跌7%。关税、减税、制造业回流、去监管——所有利好政策一应 俱全，但小投资者却无人问津。 这种分化正在重塑市场格局。Z世代和千禧一代面对高不可攀的房价选择了退却，转而通过股票和加密 货币为未来储蓄并对冲AI风险。经纪交易商与房屋建筑商的比值已达16年高点，而20-24岁大学毕业生 的失业率在过去三个月飙升至6%，远高于2023年12月的4%。 特朗普"既要减税，也要豪掷"，7万亿美元的财政支出，配合每年5万亿美元的收入 ...

信息源：本文陈述所有内容皆为可靠信息来源赘述在文章结尾 就在大家盯着中国、日本抛售美债的时候，美国财政部竟凭空冒出个"超级接盘侠"，一年狂扫1.5万亿 美债，比日本全年军费都多！ 可这土豪既不是传统盟友英国，也不是中东金主，但背后牵扯着美国掏空全球钱包的新套路…… 美债困局 2025年4月特朗普宣布"对等关税"政策后，美国国债遭遇了自2001年以来最猛烈的抛售潮，长期国债收 益率连日飙升。 2025年5月，美国财政部资本流动报告显示，中国单月减持189亿美元美债，持仓降至7654亿美元——这 是二十年来首次被英国反超，滑落至美债海外持有国的第三位。 日本虽在2025年2月增持466亿美元，但其国内债务压力制约了持续接盘能力。 此刻，美国国债总额高悬于37万亿美元之巅，而年复一年"借新还旧"的戏码也导致各国央行对美债态度 发生了转变，石油国家转向黄金，欧洲基金缩紧钱袋，美联储自身深陷量化紧缩。 对于美国来说，急需解决的2025年到期债务规模如滚雪球般膨胀，但是特朗普却丝毫不慌，因为一个隐 形巨头已悄然崛起。 2024年全球稳定币转账量高达27.6万亿美元，比Visa和万事达交易量总和还多。进入2025年，其总市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US May ADP employment growth fell short of expectations and the previous value; OECD cut the global growth forecast for the second time this year, slashing the US economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.6%. After the China - US tariff relief, US consumer confidence was significantly boosted, but the improvement in the labor market was limited, and the long - term economic resilience still needed to be observed [6]. - Domestic macro: Against the backdrop of the continued implementation of the "rush export/trans - shipment" and "two new" policies, the profits and PMI of manufacturing enterprises generally maintained strong resilience. The trade friction easing and policies supported the overall stability of manufacturing production and operation [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, even if Trump's tariffs are blocked, it cannot solve the fundamental deficit problem in the US. In China, the growth - stabilizing policy remains steadfast, and the second - quarter economic growth rate is supported by export resilience and the tariff - easing window period. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. The stock market and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: US May ADP employment increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. The number of job vacancies in April increased, and the consumer confidence index in May jumped from 85.7 to 98.0, but the labor market improvement was limited [6]. - Domestic: From January to April, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal implementation of established policies [8]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattened, the economic growth expectation improved, and the stagflation trading cooled down [8]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Focus on local large - consumption hotspots, with market sentiment oscillating [8]. - Stock index options: Volatility declined continuously, and cautious covered call strategies were recommended, with the market oscillating [8]. - Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures rose collectively, and the market oscillated [8]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Due to the better - than - expected progress of China - US negotiations, precious metals continued to adjust in the short term, with the market oscillating [8]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention was paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases, with the market oscillating [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: Pessimistic demand expectations and a downward - moving cost support, with the market oscillating [8]. - Iron ore: Overseas shipments increased, and the price oscillated [8]. - Coke: As the off - season deepened, there was still an expectation of price cuts, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. - Coking coal: Upstream inventory accumulation intensified, and the price remained weak, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price oscillated at a high level, with the market oscillating and rising [8]. - Alumina: The event of mining license revocation was not yet finalized, and the alumina contract oscillated at a high level, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. - Aluminum: With the easing of trade tensions, the aluminum price oscillated strongly [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure persisted, and attention was paid to macro and geopolitical disturbances, with the market oscillating [11]. - LPG: Demand remained weak, and PG was in short - term bottom - finishing, with the market oscillating [11]. - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price was overestimated and awaited a decline [11]. - Methanol: Coal prices temporarily stabilized, and methanol oscillated [11]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Oils: There was an expectation of improvement in China - Canada trade relations, but rapeseed oil still performed weakly, with the market oscillating [11]. - Protein meal: The spot market sentiment cooled down, and the contract price followed the correction, with the market oscillating [11]. - Corn/Starch: The trading was dull, and the futures price oscillated [11]. - Pork: The supply for slaughter increased, and the pork price continued to fall, with the market oscillating and falling [11].

Group 1 - The overall market trend is expected to show a fluctuating adjustment pattern in June, with limited short-term adjustment space but potentially prolonged volatility [4][60] - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a strong adjustment, while the Hong Kong stock market may perform better due to healthier chip structures, exhibiting wide fluctuations [4][60] - In early June, the dividend style is expected to outperform, while growth sectors may be relatively weak; however, from mid-June, growth styles may gain relative advantages [4][60] Group 2 - The US stock market is projected to continue its fluctuations, with risk trend models indicating high risk levels; factors such as international trade court rulings and Trump policies will influence market sentiment [4][61] - The gold market is expected to maintain a medium risk level, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation, and is likely to strengthen gradually, forming a reverse hedging relationship with US stocks [4][61] - The bond market is anticipated to remain in a narrow fluctuation pattern, with the interest rate center potentially rising due to short-term supply pressure, but the overall downward trend remains unchanged [4][60] Group 3 - The fund allocation recommendation suggests a relatively balanced configuration, anticipating a fluctuating adjustment market, and advising to wait for the right timing [4][60] - The equity macro-micro monthly low-frequency timing model indicates a score of 0 for June, suggesting a strong adjustment pattern, with historical data showing high win rates at this score [31][30] - The model evaluates the market based on five dimensions: fundamentals, liquidity, international factors, valuation, and technical aspects, with a clear view of changes in each dimension [30][37]

Core Points - The article discusses the impact of tariff uncertainties on the market, highlighting a slight increase in the US dollar and mixed performance in European stock indices [1][5] - A legal challenge to Trump's tariff agenda has been reported, with a US appellate court reinstating the tariff policy, providing the Trump administration with some relief [1][2] - Concerns about "stagflation and tariffs" are causing a decline in market risk appetite [1][2] Market Performance - European stock indices opened mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.02%, while the German DAX rose 0.1% and the UK FTSE 100 increased by 0.24% [3][5] - The 10-year US Treasury yield remained stable at 4.41% [4][5] - The S&P 500 futures showed little change, while the Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.1% [5] Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar index increased by 0.21% to 99.54 points, while the euro fell by 0.2% against the dollar to 1.1349 [5][8] - Gold prices decreased by 0.5% to $3,295.62 per ounce, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by 0.2% to $60.79 per barrel [5]

Report Overview - Date: May 30, 2025 - Report Type: Financial Futures Daily Report - Issuer: Everbright Futures 1. Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Oscillating [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: On May 29, the A - share market rebounded significantly, with the Wind All - A index rising 1.17% and trading volume reaching 1.21 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also showed varying degrees of increase. The TMT and pharmaceutical biological sectors led the rebound. Although the economic data in April declined compared to March, it remained resilient. The social retail sales year - on - year rate was 5.1%, supported by the "trade - in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and M2 year - on - year growth of 8%. The Sino - US joint statement and recent policy announcements, such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and measures to encourage long - term funds to enter the market, are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable rise of stock market valuations. The internal policy drive is the main line for the equity index in 2025 [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 29, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 266 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan after 154.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. In the short term, the bond market is difficult to have a trend - based market and will follow the changes in the capital and economic fundamentals. The bond market is in a sideways oscillation pattern after adjustment. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [3]. 3. Daily Price Changes 3.1 Equity Index Futures and Stock Indices | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,673.6 | 2,665.4 | 8.2 | 0.31% | | IF | 3,832.8 | 3,805.0 | 27.8 | 0.73% | | IC | 5,668.6 | 5,568.0 | 100.6 | 1.81% | | IM | 6,031.0 | 5,899.0 | 132.0 | 2.24% | | SSE 50 | 2,690.9 | 2,683.1 | 7.8 | 0.29% | | SSE 300 | 3,858.7 | 3,836.2 | 22.5 | 0.59% | | CSI 500 | 5,719.9 | 5,637.2 | 82.7 | 1.47% | | CSI 1000 | 6,089.6 | 5,984.5 | 105.1 | 1.76% | [4] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.35 | 102.40 | - 0.054 | - 0.05% | | TF | 105.87 | 106.02 | - 0.15 | - 0.14% | | T | 108.48 | 108.73 | - 0.255 | - 0.23% | | TL | 118.69 | 119.40 | - 0.71 | - 0.59% | [4] 4. Market News - On May 29, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, stated in response to a question from AFP that in the tariff issue, China has repeatedly clarified its stance that tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [5]. 5. Chart Analysis 5.1 Equity Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of each index futures contract [7][8][9][10][11] 5.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][18][19] 5.3 Exchange Rates - The report displays the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates among major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [22][23][24][26][27] 6. Team Members - Zhu Jintao, Master of Economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29] - Wang Dongying, an equity index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on equity index futures, macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking [29]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].