1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views Methanol - The inland market's maintenance has reached its peak, and there is an expectation of increased production in late July. The port market faces dual pressures: an expected arrival of 1.25 million tons in July and planned maintenance of coastal MTO units, which will weaken demand. The port will continue to accumulate inventory from July to August, but the current absolute inventory is relatively low year - on - year, with limited upside and downside space, suggesting range - bound operations [4]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The main logic is the weakening downstream market and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, with a possible supply surplus in the second half of the year. The EIA weekly report shows that Cushing inventory reached its highest level since June, and US distillate demand slightly declined, although crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels. In the short term, after the oil price decline, there is a high probability of a stalemate between bulls and bears. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band strategy [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Short - term downward pressure exists due to factors such as the postponement of some domestic device maintenance plans and the recovery of overseas supply. However, considering the expected commissioning of new PTA devices, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain tight, and there is support at low levels [31]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with a weakening basis. The absolute price is under pressure. Strategies include range - bound operations, short - selling above 4800, and other operations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the EGO9 contract and pay attention to the pressure around 4400 [31]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, with limited driving forces. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [31]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the absolute price still follows the cost side. Attention should be paid to further production cuts and downstream follow - up [31]. Polyolefins - From a supply - demand perspective, PP maintenance is gradually peaking, and PE maintenance in the second half of the month is still relatively high. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, with static supply and demand both declining, inventory accumulating, and apparent demand weakening. Dynamically, PE import offers are still scarce, and demand is expected to improve seasonally in late July. For unilateral strategies, both PP and PE lack strong driving forces, and range - bound operations are recommended. For arbitrage, take profit when LP is around 250 [35]. Urea - The futures price has recently declined. The short - term driving forces for the futures price mainly come from the seasonal weakening of demand and the increasing supply pressure, with export expectations providing partial support for large - granular urea. Agricultural demand has ended, leading to a decline in the spot trading atmosphere, which in turn drags down the futures sentiment. The supply side has a high daily output, and although maintenance has increased, the total supply is abundant, and the weak new order transactions amplify the pessimistic atmosphere. Exports only support large - granular urea locally and have limited impact on small - granular urea. It is expected that the futures price may still face pressure in the short term [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in July, but due to high import expectations and relatively high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. Affected by weak oil prices and the styrene price, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the main contract BZ2603 and adopt a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [46]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with increasing port inventory and short - term pressure on the basis. It is under short - term pressure. Strategies include short - selling the EB08 contract, selling call options with an exercise price above 7500, and narrowing the EB - BZ spread [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, MA2601 closed at 2434, MA2509 at 2367, with a MA91 spread of - 67 and a Taicang basis of 11. Compared with July 15, most prices and spreads showed certain changes [2]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 35.234% (a decrease of 1.28% from the previous value), port inventory was 790,000 tons (an increase of 9.92%), and social inventory was 114.3% (an increase of 6.20%) [3]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: As of Thursday, the domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 72.5% (a decrease of 4.11% from the previous value), the overseas upstream enterprise operating rate was 71.1% (an increase of 11.12%), and the operating rates of various downstream devices also showed different changes [4]. Crude Oil - **EIA Weekly Data (as of July 11, 2025)**: US crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, refinery operating rate was 93.9%, crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels, and other data also showed corresponding changes [7]. - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, Brent was at $68.77 per barrel, WTI at $66.68 per barrel, and various price spreads also changed compared with July 16 [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: Various product prices in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different changes on July 16 compared with July 15, and price spreads also changed accordingly [31]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various devices in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different degrees of change on a weekly basis [31]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509, as well as various price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [35]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends, and the operating rates of their devices and downstream industries also changed [35]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of various urea products and related price spreads and basis values showed certain changes compared with July 15 [42]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea showed different trends, with the factory - level inventory decreasing by 7.46% on a weekly basis [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products, as well as price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [46]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in the East China port showed different trends, and the operating rates of related industries also changed [46].

Group 1: Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 09 contract rising 1.37%. Kurdish oil production decreased by 140,000 - 150,000 barrels per day due to drone attacks, but the upward drive from strong reality factors has weakened, and there are still trade - war risks in July. Short - term prices are likely to remain in a volatile pattern [1] Precious Metals - US economic data showed resilience, suppressing gold prices, but gold remained resilient. Uncertainty before the US tariff policy deadline is high, and precious metals are mainly in a volatile state [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices fluctuated higher. Good US retail sales boosted risk - asset trading sentiment. After the price decline, LME copper traded between the MA60 and 40 - day moving averages. SMM social inventory decreased by 4,300 tons to 143,300 tons this week [3] Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly. Aluminum ingot and aluminum bar social inventories decreased. After breaking the upward trend line, it is in a volatile state waiting for consumption feedback [4] Alumina - Domestic alumina operating capacity has reached a historical high and is in an oversupply state. The inventory of SHFE warehouse receipts is still low. The upward trend of spot prices has eased, but it is still at a premium, and the downside space of futures is limited after continuous decline [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai quotation is stable at 19,500 yuan. Demand is weak, but scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the industry has negative profits but shows some resilience relative to aluminum prices [6] Zinc - In the consumption off - season, downstream willingness to buy at high prices is low. Due to the "anti - involution" policy, zinc price correction is difficult. The mid - term idea is to short on rallies, waiting for opportunities around 23,000 yuan [7] Lead - Middle - East tariff hikes on Chinese lead - acid batteries and inventory accumulation have pressured lead prices. Kazakhstan's export ban on unforged aluminum strengthens domestic cost support. Attention should be paid to whether Shanghai aluminum can stop falling around 16,800 yuan/ton [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded with active trading. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, with weak spot sales. Nickel - iron and stainless - steel inventories have increased. Technically, Shanghai nickel still has room to rebound, waiting for better short - selling opportunities [9] Tin - Overnight, LME tin recovered its decline, and Shanghai tin fluctuated. Attention should be paid to the low inventory in overseas markets and the resumption of supply of tin concentrates. Hold previous high - level short positions [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded. There is strong selling pressure around 70,000 yuan. Total inventory is high, and traders buy at low prices. The futures price has strong hedging demand in the 67,000 - 70,000 yuan range, and abundant supply restricts the rebound space [11] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures strengthened significantly. The downstream price increase has begun to transmit costs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and strong, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [12] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures continued to strengthen. Downstream polysilicon production is expected to increase in July, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and strong, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt changes [13] Iron and Steel - Night - session steel prices continued to rise. Rebar demand declined, and production decreased, with a slight inventory increase. Hot - rolled coil demand slightly recovered, production decreased, and inventory slightly declined. The market focus is on off - season demand and policy changes [14] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices continued to rebound. Supply has a short - term decline risk, and demand can maintain a relatively high level in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate with steel products [15] Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. The first round of price increases was fully implemented, with a smaller - than - expected increase. It follows steel prices and is less affected by the "anti - involution" policy [16] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Environmental inspections in Wuhai affected coal transportation. The total inventory decreased, and it follows steel prices and is less affected by the "anti - involution" policy [17] Manganese Silicon - Prices fluctuated upward. Manganese ore inventory is low in the short term, and price support is increasing. It follows rebar prices but has limited upward momentum [18] Silicon Iron - Prices fluctuated upward. Iron - water production decreased slightly. Demand is fair, and it follows rebar prices but has limited upward momentum [19] Group 2: Shipping and Energy Container Freight Index (European Line) - Spot market prices may rise. Supply pressure will gradually appear in August, and the short - term market will enter a volatile stage [20] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The high - low sulfur spread is declining. FU cracking is expected to continue the downward trend, and LU follows crude oil [21] Asphalt - Social inventory slightly increased, and factory inventory decreased. Supply increase resilience needs to be observed, and low inventory supports prices [22] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Middle - East production pressure remains, and the domestic market is in a supply - demand double - weak situation. The summer off - season pattern remains, and the price is volatile and weak [22] Group 3: Chemicals Urea - Daily production decreased slightly, and supply is sufficient. The market is expected to be in a supply - demand - loose situation in the short term, and the price is likely to be volatile and strong within a range [23] Methanol - Import arrivals increased, and port inventory accumulated rapidly. Some enterprises may postpone maintenance. Demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream device changes [24] Pure Benzene - Night - session prices were weak. It is expected to be moderately boosted by the oil - price rebound. There is a supply pressure in the short term. Seasonal improvement is expected in the third - quarter later stage, and it is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [25] Styrene - The crude - oil market has a multi - empty game, and the short - term trend may be wide - range volatile. Supply is sufficient, and spot sales are weak [26] Polypropylene and Plastic - Polyolefin futures were volatile and weak. Polyethylene supply will increase, and demand support is limited. Polypropylene has bottom support, but demand is weak [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC prices were narrowly volatile. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Caustic - soda supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be under pressure at high levels [28] PX and PTA - PX and PTA prices rebounded. PX demand is weakening, and PTA has a drive to repair the processing spread [29] Ethylene Glycol - Domestic production decreased, and arrivals were low. The price is volatile and strong. Supply contraction is beneficial to market improvement in the short term [30] Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Short - fiber prices rebounded with raw materials. Short - fiber production increased, and inventory decreased slightly. Bottle - chip enterprises cut production, and inventory increased slightly [31] Group 4: Building Materials Glass - Glass prices were strong during the day. Inventory decreased this week, and the price is expected to follow the macro - sentiment in the short term. In the long term, supply contraction is needed for a significant price increase [32] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International oil prices rose, and the Thai raw - material market was stable with a slight increase. Rubber supply is increasing, demand is improving, and the strategy is to go long on rebounds [33] Soda Ash - Soda - ash prices were strong during the day. The spot market is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to follow costs and the macro - situation in the short term, and there is limited upward space in the long term [34] Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - US soybean good - quality rate increased. Domestic soybean - meal prices rose, and inventory increased. Attention should be paid to the US soybean - growing area weather and the August 1 tariff node [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm - oil prices strengthened. Indonesia's palm - oil export competitiveness increased, and there is a bio - diesel demand expectation. Long - term, a long - on - dips strategy is recommended for vegetable oils [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market is affected by economic and trade expectations. Supply may be uncertain, and the price is expected to rise in the short term [37] Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybean prices continued to rebound. Attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance [38] Corn - China Grain Reserves Corporation's auctions affected market expectations. US corn is growing well, and Dalian corn futures are expected to continue bottom - range fluctuations [39] Live Pigs - Live - pig futures prices rose slightly. Spot prices continued to fall, and supply is increasing. There is a downward pressure on prices in the medium term [40] Eggs - Egg futures prices fell, with the off - season contracts under pressure. Spot prices rose, and attention should be paid to the rebound strength [41] Cotton - US cotton prices fluctuated higher, and domestic demand is average. Cotton inventory is expected to be tight, supporting price increases. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [42] Sugar - US sugar prices were volatile. Brazilian production expectations are negative, and domestic sugar inventory pressure is light. The price is expected to be volatile [43] Apples - Futures prices were volatile. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and prices have increased. The market focus is on the new - season yield estimate, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] Wood - Futures prices rebounded significantly. Spot prices are stable, and there is an expectation of price increase due to low inventory. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the upward momentum is insufficient. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [45] Pulp - Futures prices rose slightly. Spot prices were stable. Port inventory decreased slightly, but supply is still relatively loose. Demand is in the off - season, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or do short - term operations [46] Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - A - share prices fluctuated higher, and overseas stock markets also rose. In the short term, the domestic risk - preference pattern is volatile and strong, and continue to pay attention to policy signals. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks on the basis of dividend - asset allocation [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury - bond futures prices were in a volatile consolidation state. The central bank increased net investment, and the bond market may have increased fluctuations in the short term [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints Urea - The main logic for the stabilization of the urea futures market is the improved demand - side expectations, but the high - supply pressure still limits the rebound height. Future demand improvement expectations, along with partial device overhauls, support the futures price [5]. Polyolefin - For PP and PE, there is a lack of strong driving forces. The static situation shows a double - decline in supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and weak apparent demand. However, there are expectations of demand improvement for PE in late July. Suggested strategies include range - bound operations for both PP and PE, and taking profit when the LP spread reaches around 250 [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - Different products in the polyester industry chain have different outlooks. PX may be boosted in the short - term, PTA is expected to be supported in the short - term, MEG is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, short - fiber has limited driving forces, and bottle - chip has expectations of supply - demand improvement [48]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to expectations of marginal supply contraction and supply uncertainties caused by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band - trading strategy [52]. Methanol - The inland methanol market is expected to see an increase in production in late July. The port market faces pressure from expected arrivals and planned MTO overhauls, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation from July to August. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations [73]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, there is limited supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals, but high profits stimulate high production. It is recommended that previous long - position holders temporarily exit and wait and see. For PVC, the current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [81]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in July, but its own driving force is limited. For styrene, the supply - demand is marginally repaired, but the supply - demand expectation is still weak. Short - term price support may come from the overall positive sentiment in the domestic commodity market [86]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On July 17, the 01 contract closed at 1718 yuan/ton (up 0.47% from July 16), the 05 contract at 1730 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), the 09 contract at 1743 yuan/ton (up 0.58%), and the methanol - main contract at 2373 yuan/ton (up 0.25%) [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 12 yuan/ton on July 17 (up 29.41% from July 16), the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was - 13 yuan/ton (down 116.67%), and the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was 25 yuan/ton (up 8.70%) [2]. - **Main Positions**: On July 17, the long - position of the top 20 was 110750 (down 1.28% from July 16), the short - position of the top 20 was 123632 (up 1.78%), and the long - to - short ratio was 0.90 (down 3.00%) [3]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Most upstream raw material prices remained stable, with only slight changes in a few items such as动力煤港口(秦皇岛) (up 0.32%) and合成氨(山东) (down 0.33%) [4]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed minor fluctuations, with some prices decreasing slightly [4]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily production decreased slightly on July 18 compared to July 17. Weekly data showed a decrease in domestic urea production, an increase in device overhaul losses, a decrease in factory inventory, and an increase in port inventory [5]. Polyolefin - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 17, L2601 closed at 7235 yuan/ton (up 0.14% from July 16), L2509 at 7215 yuan/ton (up 0.01%), PP2601 at 7016 yuan/ton (up 0.11%), and PP2509 at 7020 yuan/ton (up 0.10%). Some spot prices remained unchanged [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories increased, and the operating rates of some devices and downstream industries decreased [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased slightly. Downstream polyester product prices and cash - flows showed various changes, with some prices rising and some cash - flows changing significantly [48]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different segments in the polyester industry chain showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [48]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 18, Brent crude oil was at 69.52 US dollars/barrel (up 1.46% from July 17), WTI at 67.55 US dollars/barrel (up 0.01%), and there were also changes in various price spreads [52]. - **Supply - Demand and Market Logic**: Supply decreased due to factors such as a decline in US crude oil inventories and production cuts in the Iraqi Kurdish region. Market focus has shifted to supply - side risks [52]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, MA2601 closed at 2438 yuan/ton (up 0.16% from July 16), MA2509 at 2373 yuan/ton (up 0.25%), and there were changes in various regional price spreads [73]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased slightly, while port and social inventories increased. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries also changed [73]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: For PVC and caustic soda, futures and spot prices showed minor changes, and there were also changes in price spreads [76]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and its downstream industries changed, and inventory levels also showed different trends [79][80][81]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, the price of pure benzene and styrene and their related price spreads changed. For example, the price of benzene - ethylene in the East China spot market decreased [85]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and operating rates showed different trends, with some operating rates decreasing [85][86].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend. With the geopolitical risk in the Middle East still present, the premium of crude oil has increased. After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has been strengthened, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted demand. Although 8 major OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries plan to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, the potential for further production expansion is limited in the future as the production increase negative factors are digested and the original production increase plan is gradually realized. [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Time - cycle Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also oscillatory [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is moderately strong and oscillatory, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is the same [1][5]. Price Movement and Data - On Thursday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained a moderately strong and oscillatory trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 1.79% to 511.9 yuan per barrel [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will not have a significant unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the domestic supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, build positions at appropriate times, and adopt a neutral - to - bullish or neutral strategy for short - term trading, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is the shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. It will still face pressure in the future [12]. - For benzene ethylene, in the short term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [15][17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to maintain a volatile downward trend [19]. - For polypropylene, it is expected that the price will be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and it is expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [22]. - For PTA, under the situation of expected continuous inventory accumulation and weakening demand, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [23]. - For ethylene glycol, although the fundamentals are weak, it is expected to be strong in the short term due to unexpected events [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose by $0.98, or 1.47%, to $67.62; Brent main crude oil futures rose by $0.94, or 1.37%, to $69.65; INE main crude oil futures fell by 0.60 yuan, or 0.12%, to 516.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.23 million barrels to 12.23 million barrels, a 1.92% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.68 million barrels to 9.06 million barrels, a 7.00% decrease; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.32 million barrels to 23.39 million barrels, a 5.35% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.78 million barrels to 44.68 million barrels, a 3.82% decrease [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 17, the 09 contract rose by 6 yuan/ton to 2373 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 8 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 17 [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The upstream start - up rate continued to decline, and the profit slightly decreased but remained at a relatively high level. Overseas device start - up returned to the mid - high level, and the market reaction to overseas supply disruptions was over, with market fluctuations narrowing. The port olefin load rebounded this week, but the traditional demand was in the off - season, with the start - up rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid falling and those of chlorides and MTBE rising, showing overall weakness [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 17, the 09 contract rose by 10 yuan/ton to 1743 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 47 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic start - up rate decreased slightly, and the overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level, with cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The start - up rate of compound fertilizers bottomed out and rebounded, entering the autumn fertilizer production stage, and the subsequent start - up rate will continue to rise, supporting the demand for urea. Export containerization continued, and port inventory continued to increase [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have been rising continuously, showing strong momentum. The overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish [7]. - **Inventory Data**: As of July 6, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons, or 0.02%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 791,000 tons, a 0.25% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 502,000 tons, a 0.45% decrease. As of July 13, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 507,500 (+23,000) tons [9]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The rubber price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, build positions at appropriate times, and adopt a neutral - to - bullish or neutral strategy for short - term trading, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose by 21 yuan to 4955 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4840 (0) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 (- 21) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 118 (- 3) yuan/ton [12]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall start - up rate of PVC this week was 77%, a 0.5% decrease; the start - up rate of the calcium carbide method was 79.2%, a 1.6% decrease; the start - up rate of the ethylene method was 71%, a 2.5% increase. The overall downstream start - up rate was 41.1%, a 1.8% decrease. Factory inventory was 382,000 tons (- 5,000), and social inventory was 624,000 tons (+32,000) [12]. 3.6 Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is currently at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space [15]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The start - up rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, and the start - up rate of benzene ethylene continued to rise. The port inventory of benzene ethylene increased significantly, and the overall start - up rate of the three S products in the demand side decreased due to the off - season [15][17]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The global trade policy uncertainty has returned due to the US tariff policy. The spot price of polyethylene fell, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The upstream start - up rate was 78.84%, a 0.01% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 529,300 tons, a 36,200 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 57,700 tons, a 2,900 - ton decrease. The average downstream start - up rate was 38%, a 0.13% increase [19]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The profit of Shandong local refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal supply of propylene returning [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The downstream start - up rate fluctuated seasonally downward. In the off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20]. 3.9 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose by 26 yuan to 6742 yuan, and the PX CFR fell by 1 dollar to 833 dollars. The basis was 119 yuan (- 41), and the 9 - 1 spread was 134 yuan (+36) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The load in China was 81.3%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 73.6%, a 0.5% decrease. Some devices had load adjustments. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 117,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of July, a year - on - year increase of 22,000 tons. The inventory at the end of May was 4.346 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 165,000 tons [22]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose by 8 yuan to 4714 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 10 yuan to 4730 yuan. The basis was 24 yuan (+13), and the 9 - 1 spread was 66 yuan (+16) [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged from the previous period. The downstream load was 88.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The terminal texturing load decreased by 1% to 61%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 56%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 11 was 2.172 million tons, a 38,000 - ton increase [23]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose by 21 yuan to 4372 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 37 yuan to 4437 yuan. The basis was 62 yuan (- 8), and the 9 - 1 spread was 17 yuan (+15) [24]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side load was 66.2%, a 1.4% decrease. The downstream load was 88.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The import arrival forecast was 45,000 tons, and the port inventory was 553,000 tons, a 27,000 - ton decrease [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Global risk appetite has increased due to better - than - expected US retail and employment data, while in China, although H1 economic growth exceeded expectations, consumption and investment slowed in June. Policy measures such as "anti - involution" and "stable employment" can boost domestic risk preference in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term; bonds are at a high level and oscillating; different commodity sectors have different trends, with short - term investment suggestions being cautious [2]. Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Overseas: US economic data is strong, with the June retail sales monthly rate at 0.6% (higher than the expected 0.1%), which supports the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts, and the US dollar strengthens. - Domestic: H1 economic growth exceeded expectations, but consumption and investment slowed in June. Policies like "anti - involution" and "stable employment" can boost domestic risk preference. - Asset operations: Stocks are recommended for short - term cautious long positions; bonds for short - term high - level oscillation and cautious observation; different commodity sectors have corresponding short - term operations [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market rose slightly driven by sectors such as components, fruit chains, and military industries. - The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress, with short - term upward macro - driving forces increasing. - Operation: Short - term cautious long positions [3]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals showed a differentiated trend. The US economic data was good, and the US dollar strengthened, putting pressure on gold. - In the long - term, the support logic for precious metals remains solid, with factors like the "Big and Beautiful Act" accelerating the consumption of the US dollar's credit and geopolitical uncertainties and economic slowdown expectations strengthening the value of gold allocation. - Operation: Short - term high - level oscillation and cautious long positions [3][4]. Black Metals Soda Ash - On Thursday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1225 yuan/ton, showing a strong trend. - Supply: Production is stable, but there is an oversupply situation. - Demand: Downstream demand is at a low level, mainly for rigid production. - Profit: Profits decreased week - on - week, with both ammonia - alkali and combined - alkali methods in the red. - Long - term: The price is suppressed due to the loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory [5]. Glass - On Thursday, the main contract of glass was at 1092 yuan/ton, showing a strong trend. - Supply: The daily melting volume increased week - on - week, and there is supply pressure in the off - season. There are expectations of production cuts due to "anti - involution" policies. - Demand: The real estate industry is weak, and demand is hard to improve. - Profit: Profits increased week - on - week. - Long - term: A long - term upward trend requires the cooperation of downstream demand and the implementation of "anti - involution" policies [6]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - US PPI is lower than expected, with low inflation pressure, but the economy is still resilient. - The future trend of copper prices depends on the tariff implementation time. If it is before August 1, copper prices will weaken; if it is in September/October, it will support copper prices [7][8]. Aluminum - China's air - conditioner production in June decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. - Social inventories are still in the process of accumulation, and the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have weakened. - Operation: Look for resistance levels to short after a short - term oscillation [8]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses. - It is in the off - season, and demand is weak. - Short - term: Prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the upward space is limited [9]. Tin - Supply: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has recovered slightly, and the supply reduction is lower than expected. - Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and the order volume has decreased. - Short - term: Prices will oscillate, but in the medium - term, factors like high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weakening demand will limit the upward space [9][10]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 2.47%. - Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to oscillate strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy. - Attention should be paid to macro - disturbances [10]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose by 0.75%. - Affected by the "anti - involution" theme, it is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. Polysilicon - On Thursday, the main contract of polysilicon rose by 7.24%. - Affected by policy news, the expectations for industrial silicon and polysilicon are strong, and short - term verification is difficult. - Operation: Cautiously enter long positions [12]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Short - term supply is tight, with a decrease in US crude oil inventories and a reduction in Iraq's crude oil production. - US economic data is good, alleviating concerns about weak demand. - Short - term: The tight pattern will continue, but there is a risk of weakening in the medium - to - long - term [13]. Asphalt - The price follows the cost of crude oil and oscillates, but the short - term demand is average, and the upward space is limited. - The shipment volume has decreased, and the inventory is starting to accumulate. - Attention should be paid to inventory destocking in the future [13]. PX - Crude oil prices are rising slightly, but PX prices are limited by the negative feedback from the polyester sector. - Although the downstream PTA start - up rate has increased, there is a possibility of weakening demand in the future. - Short - term: It will oscillate weakly, but there is limited downward driving force [14]. PTA - After the improvement of spot liquidity, the futures price is under pressure, and the basis and monthly spread have weakened. - The supply - increase and demand - decrease pattern continues, and the inventory has increased. - Short - term: The upward space is limited, and there is a risk of the price center moving down [14]. Ethylene Glycol - The futures price is fluctuating around the support level, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. - Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. - Short - term: It will continue to oscillate weakly [15][16]. Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber has decreased slightly following the trend of the polyester sector. - Terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. - Medium - term: It will oscillate weakly following the polyester sector [16]. Methanol - The restart of inland devices has increased supply, and there are rumors of olefin device maintenance. - The futures price is affected by positive factors at home and abroad, with the 09 contract expected to oscillate and the 01 contract having long - position opportunities [16]. PP - Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season and weakening. - The price center is expected to move down, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [16]. LLDPE - It is in the off - season, and demand is weak. Although the number of maintenance has increased, the inventory is rising. - Short - term: It may rebound, but the space is limited; in the medium - to - long - term, the price center will move down [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - New - season US soybean exports exceeded expectations, and technical buying continued to drive up the price. - The 2024/25 and 2025/26 market - year export sales data showed different trends [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The M09 contract of domestic soybean meal continued to be strong, and the dynamic cost is expected to be strong. - The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to the Sino - US soybean trade relationship. - Rapeseed meal has seen a significant increase in positions, but the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is loose, but the far - month supply pressure is fully priced, and the monthly spread has rebounded. - If Australia's rapeseed imports are fully liberalized, the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply chain may become more stable, and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure [19]. Palm Oil - Indonesia has increased the biodiesel blending ratio, and the consumption of palm oil for biodiesel has increased significantly. - The reference price of Malaysian palm oil has been raised, and the export tax will increase. - The import demand of India is strong, and the export situation may improve in the future [20]. Corn - The auction of imported corn and expected auctions of old rice in August may impact corn prices. - Feed enterprises are waiting and watching, mainly for rigid demand. - Futures: After the 09 contract fell below 2300, there is limited willingness to short, and the buying drive is weak [20][21]. Hogs - In early July, large - scale pig farms were holding back sales, but supply recovered in mid - July, and pig prices declined. - Secondary fattening pigs will be concentrated for sale in August. - Demand may increase in late August, and pig prices may be under pressure until early August [21].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of urban work meetings and the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on urban renewal and community building [1] - The U.S. retail sales have rebounded across various sectors, alleviating some concerns about consumer spending, with 10 out of 13 retail categories showing growth, primarily driven by a recovery in auto sales [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has highlighted the need for comprehensive implementation of various livelihood projects and safety engineering [1] Group 2 - In the steel market, the profitability of steel mills remains stable, with a gradual decline in iron water production, while steel inventory continues to decrease [2][21] - The overall steel market is not facing significant supply-demand imbalances, and short-term exports are expected to remain resilient despite tariff impacts [2][21] - The macroeconomic outlook is strong, contributing to price increases in black commodities, including steel [2][21] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market indices have risen, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the banking sector has lagged [3][8] - The financing balance has increased, indicating a growing interest in long-term investments in the capital market, which may reduce stock market volatility [3][8] - A-shares are considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are supported by technology innovation policies [3][8] Group 4 - The European shipping index has shown fluctuations, with the EC contract closing at 1581.3 points, down 4.28% [4][25] - Despite a general decline in shipping rates, the European line has not followed the U.S. line's downward trend, indicating a potential recovery in market expectations [4][25] - The focus is on the upcoming August shipping rates, with limited information currently available from shipping companies [4][25] Group 5 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission reported that central enterprises achieved a total added value of 5.2 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [6] - The emphasis is on transitioning from labor-intensive growth to innovation-driven growth for high-quality development [6] - The National Intellectual Property Administration has reported an increase in the industrialization rate of invention patents from 44.9% in 2020 to 53.3% in 2024 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an overall view of "oscillating weakly" for the energy and chemical industry, with specific varieties having different trends such as oscillation, oscillation weakly, oscillation strongly, etc. [1][3][4] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices have fallen for three consecutive days, and the market is closely watching whether US inventories will accumulate effectively. The supply pressure of the chemical industry is increasing, and the demand has shown weakness since June, with an increasing possibility of the industry gradually weakening. [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Trends of Crude Oil and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. In the context of a relatively certain inventory accumulation expectation, oil prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly after the weakening of geopolitical disturbances. [8] - **Chemicals**: Supply has substantially increased, while demand has shown weakness since June. The probability of the chemical industry gradually weakening is increasing. For example, the supply pressure of olefins will suppress industrial profits, and the polyester chain may see a decline in direct demand for raw materials. [2] 2. Analysis of Each Variety - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental pattern of looseness remains unchanged, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly. [3][13] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - estimated stage. [8][9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. [3][9][10] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken. [3][13] - **Methanol**: The domestic operating load is low, and methanol oscillates. [3][22][23] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment has slowed down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals, with short - term pressure on urea. [3][23][24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The resumption of device production is less than expected, and ethylene glycol will continue the low - inventory pattern. [3][17][18] - **PX**: The US sanctions against Russia are less than expected, and PX oscillates and consolidates. [15] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and PTA consolidates. [15] - **Short - Fiber**: It fluctuates with raw materials, and the basis remains stable. [18][20] - **Bottle Chip**: The basis weakens slightly, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. [20][21] - **PP**: As oil prices fall, PP oscillates. [3][26] - **Plastic**: As oil prices decline, plastic oscillates and weakens. [3][25] - **Pure Benzene**: Due to the lack of confidence of styrene bulls and the decline of crude oil, pure benzene falls back. [15] - **Styrene**: The risk of cornering declines, and styrene falls. [15][16][17] - **PVC**: The sentiment cools down in stages, and PVC runs weakly. [3][28] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has reached the peak, and caustic soda oscillates. [3][28][29] 3. Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.9 with a change of - 0.03, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 48 with a change of 22. [30] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of - 1, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300. [31] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 294 with a change of 47. [32] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: It involves the monitoring of basis and spreads of various chemical varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text. [33][45][57]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with Brent in the range of 68 - 70 USD/barrel. Medium - term outlook is bearish due to expected oversupply after the 4th quarter [2]. - Asphalt: The unilateral price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the cracking spread is expected to be strong. The BU main contract is expected to trade between 3500 - 3650 [5]. - LPG: The PG price is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [9]. - Natural gas: US natural gas prices are expected to rise, while European natural gas prices are expected to oscillate [9][10]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, but the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - PX: Expected to follow the cost side and oscillate in the short term [13]. - PTA: Expected to oscillate and consolidate, with attention to device changes [14]. - Ethylene glycol: Supply is gradually returning, putting pressure on prices, and expected to oscillate and consolidate [17]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, and it is expected to oscillate and consolidate [19]. - PET bottle chips: Expected to follow the raw material side and oscillate and consolidate [23]. - Styrene: Expected to oscillate in the short term due to supply and demand changes [27]. - PVC: In the second half of the year, it is in a pattern of oversupply, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [30]. - Caustic soda: Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [30]. - Plastic and PP: Fundamental is weak, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [32]. - Glass: Short - term focus on production and sales, medium - term focus on cost reduction and plant cold - repair [35]. - Soda ash: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with attention to policy trends [38]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with attention to the evolution of the Middle East situation [39]. - Urea: Expected to be weak in the short term, with attention to export policies [43]. - Corrugated paper: Overall in a weak pattern, with some price increases expected [44]. - Offset paper: In a situation of weak supply and demand, prices are expected to be stable [45]. - Logs: It is recommended to wait and see for the near - month contract, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [48]. - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: Wait and see for the RU and NR main contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread [52]. - Butadiene rubber: Try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically [55]. - Pulp: Try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract [57]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 closed at 66.38 USD/barrel, down 0.14 USD/barrel (- 0.21%); Brent2509 closed at 68.52 USD/barrel, down 0.19 USD/barrel (- 0.28%); SC main contract 2509 closed at 507 CNY/barrel [1]. - Related News: Trump's attitude towards Powell affected the market; the Fed's economic report indicated cost pressure; EIA data showed changes in US oil inventories and production [1]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - narrow - range oscillation; arbitrage - gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; options - wait and see [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 closed at 3612 points (- 0.14%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3433 points (- 0.17%) at night [3]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, affected by factors such as demand and supply [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; arbitrage - asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; options - wait and see [6]. LPG - Market Review: PG2508 closed at 4072 (- 0.88%) at night; PG2509 closed at 3988 (- 0.77%) at night [6]. - Related News: Prices in different regions had different trends [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - weak operation [9]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 34.809 (+ 1.06%), HH closed at 3.551 (+ 0.79%), JKM closed at 12.475 (+ 1.42%) [9]. - Related News: US natural gas inventory increased, supply and demand changed [9]. - Trading Strategy: HH unilateral - buy on dips; TTF unilateral - oscillate [10]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 closed at 2855 (- 0.56%) at night; LU09 closed at 3568 (- 2.22%) at night [10]. - Related News: Changes in fuel oil inventories and trading volume [11]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see; arbitrage - wait and see [12]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6716 (+ 28/+ 0.42%), and 6684 (- 32/- 0.48%) at night [12]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [13]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [13]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4706 (+ 10/+ 0.21%), and 4696 (- 10/- 0.21%) at night [13]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [14]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [16]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4351 (+ 29+0.67%), and 4349 (- 2/- 0.05%) at night [16]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales, equipment shutdown [16]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [18]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract closed at 6356 (- 12/- 0.19%) during the day, and 6338 (- 18/- 0.28%) at night [19]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [19]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [21]. PET Bottle Chips - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5886 (+ 16/+ 0.27%), and 5876 (- 10/- 0.17%) at night [20]. - Related News: Stable factory quotes, average market transactions [23]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [24]. Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6166 (+ 22/+ 0.36%) during the day, and 6151 (- 15/- 0.24%) at night; EB2508 main contract closed at 7343 (+ 3/+ 0.04%) during the day, and 7304 (- 39/- 0.53%) at night [24]. - Related News: Changes in port inventories, equipment shutdown [24]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC prices declined, and caustic soda prices were stable [27][30]. - Related News: Changes in PVC and caustic soda inventories, new device production expectations [30]. - Trading Strategy: PVC - bearish in the medium and short term; caustic soda - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [31]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: LLDPE prices declined in some regions, and PP prices had slight changes [32]. - Related News: Changes in maintenance ratios [32]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - bearish in the medium and short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [33]. Glass - Market Review: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1070 CNY/ton (- 1/- 0.09%), and 1078 CNY/ton (+ 8/+ 0.75%) at night [34]. - Related News: Market conditions in different regions, changes in deep - processing orders [34]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - pay attention to logical conversion; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [36]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1208 CNY/ton (- 6/- 0.5%), and 1215 CNY/ton (+ 7/+ 0.6%) at night [37]. - Related News: Equipment operation, price trends [38]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - prices are expected to be strong, pay attention to policy trends; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [38]. Methanol - Market Review: Methanol futures closed at 2362 (- 14/- 0.59%) at night [39]. - Related News: Changes in production enterprise signing volume [39]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [40]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures oscillated and closed at 1733 (+ 2/+ 0.12%) [40]. - Related News: Changes in production and inventory, new Indian tender prices [43]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - sell call options on rebounds [44]. Corrugated Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable with some increases, cost and demand situations [44]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Offset Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable, supply and demand situations [45]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Logs - Related News: Price changes, project funds, and market conditions [47]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for the near - month contract; arbitrage - pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; options - wait and see [49]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract closed at 14525 (+ 25/+ 0.17%); NR main 09 contract closed at 12485 (- 5/- 0.04%) [49]. - Related News: Changes in export and consumption data [51]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for RU and NR main contracts; arbitrage - hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread; options - wait and see [52]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: BR main 09 contract closed at 11405 (- 45/- 0.39%) [53]. - Related News: Changes in production and shipping index [55]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [55]. Pulp - Market Review: SP main 09 contract closed at 5242, unchanged from the previous day [55]. - Related News: New product launch by Starbucks [56]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [57].

Core Points - The international gold price unexpectedly plummeted despite central banks accumulating large amounts of gold, with prices dropping from a three-week high of $3375 to below $3350 within hours [1][3] - The surge in the US dollar index, driven by comments from EU leaders regarding tariffs, has negatively impacted gold prices, leading to a significant drop in physical gold delivery volumes in London [3][5] - High-frequency trading data indicates aggressive short-selling whenever gold prices rebound above $3358, contributing to the downward pressure on gold [5][8] Market Dynamics - Domestic gold retailers are maintaining high prices, with Chow Tai Fook's listed price reaching 1005 yuan per gram, while the buyback price is only 750 yuan, creating a significant price gap [3] - The stock market shows a split performance in gold-related stocks, with Zhongjin Gold hitting the upper limit while Hunan Gold fell by 1.84% due to its antimony mining business [3] - Institutional investors are reducing their gold holdings, as evidenced by BlackRock selling 12 tons of gold ETFs and Soros Fund cutting its gold options positions by 30% [5][8] Economic Indicators - The upcoming US core CPI data is critical, with a threshold of 3.0% being a potential trigger for a further drop in gold prices, while a figure below 2.8% could lead to a rebound [7] - The recent drop in oil prices and copper prices has further pressured gold, as these commodities are often correlated [7] - Comments from Federal Reserve officials about delaying interest rate cuts have increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to further declines in its price [8]