Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: September 4, 2025 [3] Group 2: Main Contract Data - BR Main Contract Closing Price on September 3: 11,885, with a weekly increase of 175 [4] - BR Main Contract Position on September 3: 28,944, a daily decrease of 2,339 and a weekly decrease of 10,968 [4] - BR Main Contract Trading Volume on September 3: 105,069, a daily increase of 1,944 and a weekly increase of 10,070 [4] - BR Warehouse Receipt Quantity on September 3: 12,540, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly increase of 70 [4] - BR Virtual - Real Ratio on September 3: 11.54, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 4 [4] Group 3: Basis and Spread Data - BR Basis and Spread: The 8 - 9 month spread on September 3 was 250, a daily increase of 15 and a weekly decrease of 25; the 9 - 10 month spread was 0, a daily decrease of 80 and a weekly increase of 10 [4] - BR Different Types of Basis: For example, the butadiene - styrene basis on September 3 was 515, a daily decrease of 115 and a weekly decrease of 175 [4] Group 4: Spot Price Data - BR Spot Price: Shandong market price on September 3 was 11,900, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly increase of 100; Qilu ex - factory price was 12,100, unchanged [4] - BD Spot Price: Shandong market price on September 3 was 9,600, a daily increase and a weekly increase of 100; Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,500, unchanged [4] Group 5: Processing and Import - Export Profit Data - BR Processing and Import - Export Profits: Spot processing profit on September 3 was - 92, a daily decrease of 26 and a weekly decrease of 2; import profit was - 86,225, a daily decrease of 119 and a weekly increase of 381 [4] - BD Processing and Import - Export Profits: Carbon tetrachloride extraction profit data on September 3 was N/A; butene oxidation dehydrogenation profit was 236, a daily increase and a weekly increase of 30; import profit was 416, a daily increase of 14 and a weekly increase of 125 [4] Group 6: Downstream Profit Data - BR Downstream Profits: ABS production profit data on September 3 was N/A; SBS (791 - H) production profit was unchanged from the previous day and a weekly decrease of 125 [4] Group 7: Inter - Variety and Intra - Variety Spread Data - Inter - Variety Spread: For example, the Thai mixed - BR spread on September 3 was 3,000, a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 100 [4] - Intra - Variety Spread: The BR standard - non - standard price spread on September 3 was 250, unchanged [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in job vacancies in the US, which fell to 7.181 million in July, the lowest in 10 months, indicating a slowdown in economic activity and consumer spending [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity across most regions of the US has remained unchanged, with many households' wages not keeping pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending [1] - There has been a trend of increasing minimum wage standards across 12 provinces in China this year, with most provinces raising their monthly minimum wage by approximately 8%-12%, resulting in all 31 provinces having a minimum wage exceeding 2000 yuan [1] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, gold and silver prices are rising, with market focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data. The reduction in job vacancies is seen as a bullish factor for precious metals [2][17] - The dual-fuel market shows weak performance, with coal inventory increasing and steel production remaining stable, indicating a potential pressure on prices due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3][23] - The oil market is experiencing a decline, influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in US inventory levels, with total US crude oil inventory decreasing to 822.493 million barrels [4][12] Group 3 - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's Waller suggests potential interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings, indicating a shift in monetary policy that could impact various sectors [5] - Domestically, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has ruled against US fiber optic exporters, indicating ongoing trade tensions and regulatory scrutiny [6] - The FTSE Russell announced changes to the FTSE China 50 index, which will take effect on September 19, impacting the composition of the index and potentially influencing market dynamics [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, improved weather and continuous raw material supply pressure support a slight price increase. In Hainan, with better weather, tapping operations resume, and raw material supply shows a seasonal increase. Some processors' raw material replenishment enthusiasm increases due to improved profits and orders [2]. - Recently, Qingdao port's natural rubber inventory continues to decline, though the decline rate slows. The inflow increases while the outflow increase is moderate. Downstream tire enterprises' procurement is relatively mild, and they continue the on - demand procurement rhythm. Short - term Qingdao port inventory is expected to continue a slight decline [2]. - In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' equipment ran stably last week, but some had maintenance due to high shipment pressure, dragging down overall capacity utilization. All - steel tire enterprises' equipment ran stably, mostly continuing the previous production control state. Some enterprises had maintenance plans at the beginning of this month, which may still affect short - term capacity utilization. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 15650 - 16200 range, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 12520 - 13000 range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15885 yuan/ton, and the 20 - number rubber is 12715 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 80 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 50 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3170 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 147050 lots (an increase of 3830 lots), and that of 20 - number rubber is 36890 lots (a decrease of 1963 lots). The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 33638 (a decrease of 1947), and that of 20 - number rubber is - 6787 (an increase of 451) [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 167760 tons (a decrease of 160 tons), and those of 20 - number rubber are 45664 tons (a decrease of 100 tons) [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15150 yuan/ton, the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1840 US dollars/ton, the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15150 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1840 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14880 yuan/ton, and that of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14830 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12500 yuan/ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 12100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 735 yuan/ton (an increase of 35), the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 990 yuan/ton (an increase of 70), the price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13105 yuan/ton (an increase of 71), and the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 390 yuan/ton (an increase of 66) [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60.98 Thai baht/kg, that of rubber sheets is 58.35 Thai baht/kg (a decrease of 0.23), that of glue is 55.6 Thai baht/kg (an increase of 0.15), and that of cup rubber is 51.2 Thai baht/kg (an increase of 0.15) [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 227.4 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 7.6), and that of STR20 is 35.8 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 2). The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 12.19 million tons (an increase of 0.1), and that of mixed rubber is 25.95 million tons (a decrease of 2.13) [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.84% (a decrease of 0.92), and that of semi - steel tires is 72.77% (a decrease of 0.36) [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.22 days (a decrease of 0.54), and those of semi - steel tires are 46.14 days (a decrease of 0.91). The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces (an increase of 13), and that of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces (an increase of 174) [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.8% (a decrease of 0.22), and the historical 40 - day volatility is 18.87% (an increase of 0.3) [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.61 (an increase of 0.49), and that of at - the - money put options is 22.6% (an increase of 0.46) [2]. Industry News - In the first week of September 2025, rainfall in Southeast Asian main natural rubber producing areas increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall in some areas increased the impact on tapping; the same situation occurred in some southern hemisphere areas [2]. - As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 602,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons (a decrease of 0.6%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,200 tons (a decrease of 0.14%), and the general trade inventory was 529,000 tons (a decrease of 0.7%) [2]. - As of August 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97% (a decrease of 0.90 percentage points month - on - month and 8.73 percentage points year - on - year), and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89% (a decrease of 0.08 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 5.10 percentage points year - on - year) [2].

Group 1 - Chengdu Huamei's 4-channel 12-bit 40G high-precision RF direct ADC chip has not yet achieved large-scale sales, with only sample deliveries and intention orders, indicating market demand uncertainty and potential risks [3] - Hason Co. plans to establish a joint venture company with a registered capital of 100 million yuan, in which it will hold a 10% stake, focusing on robot components and related technical services [4] - Zhangjiang Hi-Tech intends to publicly transfer 100% equity and related debts of Shanghai Jixin Rui Construction Technology Co., with a minimum transfer price of 151 million yuan [5] Group 2 - Dechuang Environmental plans to delay its response to an inquiry letter from the Shanghai Stock Exchange by no more than 5 trading days to ensure accuracy and completeness [6] - Yong'an Pharmaceutical's actual controller and chairman Chen Yong has had his detention lifted, allowing him to resume his duties, with the company's operations reported as normal [7] - Western Gold has seen a stock price increase of 39.01% since August 29, amidst high market interest in gold, while the Shanghai Composite Index has decreased by 0.78% [8] Group 3 - Spring Xing Precision's recent operational environment remains stable, with no significant changes reported, and no undisclosed major matters by its controlling shareholder [9] - Hainan Rubber expects a reduction of approximately 2,500 tons in dry rubber production due to Typhoon "Swordfish," with damage to about 28,000 mu of rubber plantation [10][11] - Hangzhou High-tech has completed the transfer of 19.03% of its shares to Beijing Jirong Weiye Energy Technology Co., changing its controlling shareholder [12] Group 4 - Zheng Fengshou, the deputy general manager of Zhengyuan Dixin, has unfortunately passed away, with no stock holdings or unfulfilled commitments reported [13] - Changyuan Power's electricity generation in August was 3.771 billion kWh, a decrease of 6.03% year-on-year, with total generation from January to August down by 1.91% [15] - Shareholder Chen Dekang of Shapu Aisi plans to reduce his stake by up to 2% within three months through trading methods [17] Group 5 - Shankai Intelligent has won a procurement project for metering instruments with a bid amount of 13.318 million yuan [19]

证券之星消息，9月3日橡胶板块较上一交易日下跌0.79%，三维装备领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3813.56，下跌1.16%。深证成指报收于12472.0，下跌0.65%。橡胶板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300587 | 天铁科技 | 8.28 | 2.99% | 61.17万 | 5.07亿 | | 603033 | 三维股份 | 13.23 | 2.08% | 32.81万 | # 4.32 Z | | 300121 | 阳谷华泰 | 15.57 | 0.65% | 30.36万 | 4.79亿 | | 605183 | 确成股份 | 20.21 | 0.05% | 3.19万 | 6462.53万 | | 301459 | 丰戊股份 | 45.20 | -0.15% | 2.11万 | 9710.01万 | | 603650 | 彤程新材 | 36.86 | -1.15% | 17.26万 | 6.43亿 | | 301300 | 远翔新材 | 38 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The cost - side support for natural rubber may continue. Domestic Qingdao Port and social inventories show a slight decline. With the upcoming traditional peak season for downstream industries, attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories [7] - In September, some BR production facilities have maintenance plans, and the supply - demand situation may improve slightly. BR inventory is expected to remain stable, and the cost - side support still exists [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,710 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,820 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,880 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,785 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative sales were about 708,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [2] - From January to July 2025, Thailand exported 1.586 million tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), a 5% year - on - year decrease. Exports to China were 622,000 tons, a 7% year - on - year increase [2] - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a 2.47% month - on - month increase and a 1.91% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the cumulative imports were 3.6005 million tons, a 21.82% year - on - year increase [2] - From January to July 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports were 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase year - on - year. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [3] - From January to July 2025, China's rubber tire exports were 5.63 million tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a 5.4% year - on - year increase. Automobile tire exports were 4.8 million tons, a 4.9% year - on - year increase, and the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a 4.9% year - on - year increase [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 2, 2025, the RU basis was - 870 yuan/ton (+40), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 990 yuan/ton (-50), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,269 yuan/ton (+15.32), the NR basis was 390 yuan/ton (+15), etc. [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.98 baht/kg (unchanged), Thai latex was 55.60 baht/kg (+0.15), Thai cup lump was 51.20 baht/kg (+0.15), and the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.40 baht/kg (unchanged) [4] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.89% (-0.08%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.97% (-0.90%) [5] - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,270,809 tons (-14,554), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (-3,908), the RU futures inventory was 178,640 tons (+170), and the NR futures inventory was 45,662 tons (+805) [6] Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 2, 2025, the BR basis was - 70 yuan/ton (+75), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc. [6] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber was 75.85% (+6.70%) [6] - Inventories: The inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber traders was 6,620 tons (-790), and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber enterprises was 25,100 tons (+1,900) [6] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. The cost - side support for natural rubber may continue, and attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of downstream factories in the peak season [7] - For BR, maintain a neutral view. The supply - demand situation may improve slightly, inventory may remain stable, and cost - side support still exists [7]

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月3日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z0017002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 肌值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1140 | 1140 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | 1200 | 1200 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1090 | 1090 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1240 | 1240 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1238 | 1274 | -36 | -2.83% | | | 玻璃2509 | 943 | વેવે | -53 | -5.32% | | | 05基差 | -d8 | -134 | 36 | 26.87% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 肌值 | 前值 | 张庆 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Various commodities in the energy - chemical sector show different trends. For example, PX is in a tight - balance supply - demand situation with positive spreads; PTA has a slightly upward - trending price with limited downside; MEG is weakly oscillating; rubber and paper pulp are oscillating; synthetic rubber has short - term support; asphalt is strengthened by geopolitical events; LLDPE is short - term weak and medium - term oscillating; PP has long - term pressure; etc. [2][10][11] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: 11 - 01 positive spread, 1 - 5 negative spread. Long PX and short EB. Buy on dips before mid - September. Supply will marginally increase in September, but PX supply - demand remains in a tight - balance due to upcoming PTA new production [5][10]. - **PTA**: Unilateral price is slightly upward - trending with limited downside. Partially stop profiting from long PTA and short MEG. Polyester sales are weak, but there is still demand for procurement and restocking [10]. - **MEG**: Unilateral price is weakly oscillating. Reduce short positions. Partially stop profiting from long PTA and short MEG. Hold 1 - 5 negative spread. Supply is expected to increase after October, while demand is weak [11]. Rubber - Rubber is oscillating. Most tire listed companies' revenues increased in H1 2025, but profits declined. In Q3, raw material prices rose, and tire companies' profits were squeezed. Domestic demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow [12][16][17]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is short - term oscillating with support. The upper limit is pressured by high supply and inventory, and the lower limit is supported by anti - involution policies. It mainly fluctuates with macro - sentiment this week [18][20]. Asphalt - Asphalt is strengthened by geopolitical events. The US - Venezuela situation is tense. This week's domestic asphalt production decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased [21][31][35]. LLDPE - LLDPE is short - term weak and medium - term oscillating. PE demand is improving due to the approaching peak season for the agricultural film industry. Recently, commodity sentiment has declined, and futures are weak. Supply remains stable in September, and inventory pressure is not significant [36][37]. PP - PP is short - term oscillating and long - term pressured. Short - term demand has improved, but the cost side is weak. Supply pressure will increase as maintenance devices resume production and new capacity comes online [40][41]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is widely oscillating. The main obstacle to price increase is export. Domestic demand is stable, and non - aluminum demand may improve in the peak season. The key lies in the production start - up rhythm in Guangxi [44][46]. Pulp - Pulp is oscillating. The pulp market showed a mild recovery yesterday. The supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly, and port inventory is high. Attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and downstream price increases [50][53]. Glass - Glass original sheet prices are stable. The short - term supply - demand situation has little change, and the mid - and downstream maintain a rigid procurement rhythm [55][56]. Methanol - Methanol is short - term rebounding and medium - term oscillating. The short - term is supported by the September 3rd parade event. The mid - term will return to the fundamental trading logic. Port inventory is high, but the price downside is limited [58][61][62]. Urea - Urea is short - term rebounding and medium - term pressured. It may be strengthened by macro - sentiment in the short term, but it is under pressure due to high inventory and high premium in the medium term [64][65][66]. Styrene - Styrene is medium - term bearish. After the end of anti - involution speculation, the long - short contradiction is accumulating. The industry still has high expectations for the peak season, but the medium - term fundamentals are weak [67][68]. Soda Ash - Soda ash spot market has little change. The domestic market is weakening, with a decline in comprehensive production and sluggish downstream demand [69][71]. LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: Macro risks are increasing, and crude oil costs are rising. The short - term trend is affected by factors such as CP paper prices and device maintenance [74][79]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are supported, but there is a risk of decline. Attention should be paid to factors such as the spread with futures and device maintenance [74]. PVC - PVC is under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The "alkali - chlorine compensation" model reduces the motivation for production reduction [82]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It turned down at night and may continue to be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [84]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fluctuations intensify, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the overseas market has risen significantly [84]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is widely oscillating. Freight rates show different trends, and the supply of shipping capacity also has corresponding changes [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][6][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are likely to rebound with volatility due to geopolitical factors and the expected stable production of OPEC+ in October [1][2] - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are expected to be volatile, with their upward or downward trends depending on various factors such as supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [1][2][4][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 10 - month contract rose by $1.58 to $65.59/barrel, a 2.47% increase; Brent 11 - month contract rose by $0.99 to $69.14/barrel, a 1.45% increase; SC2510 closed at 495.4 yuan/barrel, up 5.6 yuan/barrel, a 1.14% increase. Kazakhstan's August crude output increased by 2% compared to July. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and the OPEC+ meeting are influencing factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, FU2510 rose 1.13% to 2852 yuan/ton, and LU2511 rose 2.54% to 3559 yuan/ton. The expected reduction of Western arbitrage goods and high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support prices, but demand lacks highlights [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, BU2510 rose 1.17% to 3551 yuan/ton. In September, northern demand may drive up prices, but supply increases may limit the rise. Overall, supply - demand contradictions may ease [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 fell 0.34% to 4756 yuan/ton, EG2601 fell 1.99% to 4339 yuan/ton, and PX futures fell 0.47% to 6834 yuan/ton. PX fundamentals are weak, and TA prices may be supported. Ethylene glycol futures weakened due to inventory expectations [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2601 rose 10 yuan/ton to 15870 yuan/ton, NR rose 30 yuan/ton to 12710 yuan/ton, and BR fell 75 yuan/ton to 11820 yuan/ton. July global natural rubber output slightly decreased. China's August heavy - truck sales were positive, and rubber prices are expected to be volatile [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2235 yuan/ton. Due to profit improvement and the peak season, demand may pick up in September, and prices may enter a bottom - stage area [6] - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventories are shifting to downstream. With stable costs, prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Market prices in different regions showed different trends. Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports may decline. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [8] 3.3 Market News - On August 30, Russia launched large - scale attacks on 14 regions in Ukraine, and Ukraine attacked Russian refineries. Ukrainian drone attacks have shut down at least 17% of Russia's oil processing capacity [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][15][18][21][23][25][26][28] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for different commodities over time, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35][38][41][42] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49][52][55][57] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Charts present the spreads and ratios between different commodities, like crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][60][64][66] - **Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77][78]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 2, the A-share market and multiple futures varieties showed diverse trends, influenced by factors such as market supply - demand, policy restrictions, and international market conditions [1][2][3][4][5][7][8][9][11][12] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 2, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to 3858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.14% to 12553.84 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 2.85% to 2872.22 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2875 billion yuan, an increase of 125 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index also adjusted downward, closing at 4490.45, a decrease of 33.26 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On September 2, the weighted coke index showed weak consolidation, closing at 1599.6, a decrease of 6.9. There is a temporary supply contraction due to upcoming northern regional restrictions, while steel mills also face restrictions, and cost support is weakening [2][4] - Coking Coal: On September 2, the weighted coking coal index fluctuated weakly, closing at 1110.9 yuan, a decrease of 9.2. Some mines in major coal - producing areas have suspended production, and downstream enterprises will face restrictions, resulting in weak supply and demand [3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the reduction in spot prices and short - selling pressure, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined on September 2 and continued to fall slightly at night. India will allow unrestricted use of sugarcane juice, syrup, and molasses for ethanol production in the new season [4] Rubber - Shanghai rubber showed a narrow - range fluctuation on September 2 and closed slightly higher. Boosted by rising crude oil prices, it rose slightly at night. As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.4 million tons, a decline of 0.6% [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 2, CBOT soybean futures were weak. The US soybean harvest will start in mid - to - late September, and Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to reach a record 1.782 billion tons, a 5.6% increase year - on - year. Domestically, on September 2, soybean meal futures fluctuated. The M2601 contract closed at 3050 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decrease. High imports and high processing volumes have led to sufficient supply, and the price is under pressure [5] Live Hogs - On September 2, live hog futures fluctuated weakly. The LH2511 contract closed at 13595 yuan/ton, a 0.22% decrease. In September, supply is sufficient, and some areas face disease risks. Although there is a recovery in terminal demand due to the start of the school season, the support for prices is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is high [7] Palm Oil - On September 2, palm oil futures continued a slight rebound but lacked upward momentum. The main contract P2601 closed at 9422, a 0.4% increase. Malaysia's August palm oil exports increased by 30.53% year - on - year, while production decreased by 2.65% [8] Shanghai Copper - Positive macro factors and supply - tightening expectations will support copper prices. With low inventory and high premiums in China, and the approaching peak consumption season, demand is expected to increase. However, high prices may suppress some purchasing intentions [8] Cotton - On the night of September 2, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14045 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 900 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 189 lots [9] Iron Ore - On September 2, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed up 0.06%. Global shipments have reached a high for the year, and arrivals have increased. Short - term prices are in a fluctuating trend due to production cuts in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region [9] Asphalt - On September 2, the main contract of asphalt 2510 fluctuated and rose 1.17%, closing at 3551 yuan. The capacity utilization rate has decreased, inventory reduction is slow, and with the approaching peak demand season, prices are expected to fluctuate [9] Logs - On September 2, the log futures contract 2511 opened at 820, closed at 810.5, and increased in positions by 755 lots. The price broke below the 60 - day moving average. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and attention should be paid to factors such as peak - season prices, imports, and inventory [9][10][11] Steel Products - On September 2, rb2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3298 yuan/ton. The market lacks strong macro - drivers, and the fundamentals are weak, which may continue to suppress prices [11] Alumina - On September 2, ao2601 closed at 3022 yuan/ton. Some domestic enterprises are under maintenance, and production and operating rates have slightly declined, but the supply is still relatively loose, and the market may continue to be weak [11] Shanghai Aluminum - On September 2, al2510 closed at 20720 yuan/ton. Macro sentiment is favorable, but the peak - season expectations have not been realized. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is in a range - bound trend [12]