Core Insights - The political battle surrounding the Federal Reserve's board nomination has highlighted the limitations of Trump's influence over monetary policy, as evidenced by the narrow 48-47 vote and the resulting modest interest rate cut of 25 basis points instead of the anticipated 50 basis points [3][10][24] - The U.S. economy is facing significant challenges, including a staggering $2 trillion budget deficit and a concerning employment situation, with non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs in August and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [4][7] - The agricultural sector is under severe strain, with a $35.1 billion shortfall stemming from trade war-related subsidies, and a report indicating that farmers are struggling with unsold soybean inventories of 1.02 billion bushels [8][20][22] Economic Context - The U.S. government's total expenditure for the year is projected at $7 trillion, while revenues are only $5 trillion, leading to a 40% overspend that necessitates borrowing [4] - The inflation rate has risen to 2.9% in August, the highest level since January, indicating a potential economic stagnation combined with rising prices [7][10] Agricultural Sector Challenges - The agricultural crisis, particularly in the soybean market, poses a significant threat to Trump's voter base, as farmers are facing diminishing profits and unsold stock due to trade disruptions [8][20] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that soybean inventories will continue to rise, with prices expected to drop to $10.25 per bushel, complicating the subsidy situation for the Trump administration [20] International Relations and Trade Policy - Trump's trade policies have drawn criticism from international allies, with Australia highlighting the disruptive impact of U.S. agricultural subsidies on global markets [22] - The European Union has expressed skepticism about Trump's strategies, viewing them as potentially harmful to their economic interests while increasing dependency on U.S. products [12] Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's decision, market reactions included a rise in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, while gold prices surged past $3,700, indicating a lack of confidence in the Fed's signals [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's interest rate cut was confirmed this week, with the yield curve steepening rapidly. The long - end has high volatility and strong gaming attributes, while the short - end has relatively strong supply and demand. The long - end is expected to fluctuate between 4 - 4.5%, and the short - end is likely to decline and hard to rise. Gold is still favored [2][40]. - In the equity market, AI computing power showed a tendency to spread to other technology sectors. The market is still considered a "slow bull" and short - term is more structural. In the convertible bond market, high valuations are a psychological obstacle. It is recommended to invest in the mid - low - price range for technology diffusion, more left - side cycle directions, or alpha - focused gaming points [2][41]. - The top ten high - rating, mid - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Hope Convertible Bond, Jinneng Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Energy - saving Convertible Bond, Jiayue Convertible Bond, Energy - chemical Convertible Bond, Qingnong Convertible Bond, and Jiangong Convertible Bond [2][41]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Market Review 1.1 Equity Market: Overall Decline with Most Industries Falling - This week (September 15 - 19), the equity market was significantly differentiated and overall declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.34%, and the CSI 300 fell 0.44%. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 196.154 billion yuan to 2.494834 trillion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 8.53% [7][9]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 12 industries rose, with 5 industries rising more than 2%. Coal, power equipment, electronics, automobiles, and machinery had the highest increases [14]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Market: Overall Decline with Most Industries Falling - The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.55%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 3 industries rose, with 1 industry rising more than 2%. Communication, national defense and military industry, and automobiles had the highest increases [15]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 9.0635 billion yuan, a significant increase of 364.4 million yuan, a week - on - week change of 4.19%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Jingxing Convertible Bond, Jing 23 Convertible Bond, etc. [15]. - About 18.29% of individual convertible bonds rose, with 6.48% rising between 0 - 1% and 9.26% rising more than 2% [15]. - The overall market conversion premium rate increased. The average daily conversion premium rate this week was 37.17%, up 1.07 pcts from last week. There were different changes in different price and parity intervals [23]. 1.3 Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - This week, the weighted average and median weekly returns of convertible bonds and underlying stocks were negative, and the convertible bonds had a larger weekly decline. The trading volume of both markets increased significantly, with the convertible bond trading volume having a larger increase but a lower percentile level [37]. - About 18.88% of convertible bonds rose, and about 31.65% of underlying stocks rose. About 43.85% of convertible bonds had a higher return than the underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better this week [37]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - Overseas, the Fed's interest rate cut was confirmed. The long - end has high volatility and strong gaming attributes, while the short - end has relatively strong supply and demand. The long - end is expected to fluctuate between 4 - 4.5%, and the short - end is likely to decline and hard to rise. Gold is still favored [2][40]. - In the equity market, AI computing power showed a tendency to spread to other technology sectors. The market is still considered a "slow bull" and short - term is more structural. In the convertible bond market, high valuations are a psychological obstacle. It is recommended to invest in the mid - low - price range for technology diffusion, more left - side cycle directions, or alpha - focused gaming points [2][41]. - The top ten high - rating, mid - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Hope Convertible Bond, Jinneng Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Energy - saving Convertible Bond, Jiayue Convertible Bond, Energy - chemical Convertible Bond, Qingnong Convertible Bond, and Jiangong Convertible Bond [2][41].

Core Points - The Brazilian government aims to strengthen trade relations with Arab countries in agriculture and livestock, increasing the variety of export products [1] - Brazil's Agriculture and Livestock Minister Carlos Favaro highlighted the desire to import more key materials, primarily fertilizers, from Arab nations while also being open to purchasing other goods of interest from them [1] - Brazil is a leading exporter of halal products globally and is one of the largest exporters of halal food [1] Export Focus - The main agricultural products exported by Brazil to Arab countries include poultry, beef, sugar, corn, and honey [1] - Brazil has facilitated exports of live fertilized eggs to Saudi Arabia, Brazilian berries to Egypt, and coffee and orange juice to the UAE [1] Strategic Goals - Favaro's statements align with Brazil's strategy to diversify markets and reduce dependence on certain trade partners [1] - Brazil is actively working to "open markets, expand business relationships, and create records," with a focus on importing fertilizers and expanding the types of export products [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting outlines the competitive landscape and future prospects of the cotton industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of late August 2025, the market price for cotton (lint cotton, grade three) is projected to be 14,756.3 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.79% and a month-on-month increase of 0.97% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years for the same period was in August 2021, reaching 18,109.7 yuan per ton [1] Historical Data - A statistical chart detailing the price fluctuations of cotton (lint cotton, grade three) from 2019 to late August 2025 is referenced, indicating significant trends in pricing over the years [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recently, Luolinna International Industrial Investment (Guangdong) Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 33.33 million RMB, focusing on various investment activities and technology services [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The registered capital of Luolinna International Industrial Investment is 33.33 million RMB [1] - The company is engaged in a wide range of activities including investment, technology services, and agricultural machinery services [1] Group 2: Business Scope - The business scope includes investment activities using self-owned funds, technology development, consulting, and promotion [1] - The company also provides digital technology services, smart agriculture management, and offshore trade operations [1] - Additional services include big data services, food processing equipment sales, and various agricultural product sales [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that in the first eight months of 2025, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, with over 90% of new loans directed towards enterprises, totaling 12.22 trillion yuan, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [1] - Key sectors such as technology, green finance, inclusive finance, and agriculture have seen significant loan growth, optimizing the credit structure and injecting strong momentum into the economy [1] Group 1: Technology and Innovation Financing - In 2025, loans to the manufacturing sector showed significant improvement compared to the previous year, particularly for technology-driven enterprises, reflecting high demand for new financing [2] - A financial institution quickly responded to the strong demand for technology loans, providing 50 million yuan to support critical development areas of a company within a week [3] - Anhui province launched a "Joint Growth Plan" to support technology enterprises, attracting over 100 financial institutions, with one "little giant" enterprise receiving 70 million yuan in credit to address urgent R&D funding needs [4][5] Group 2: Agricultural Financing - Since 2025, agricultural loans have been on the rise, with tailored financial services like "fishing boat loans" and "broccoli loans" addressing the unique needs of farmers and fishermen [8] - The Agricultural Bank of China in Tianjin has issued over 30 million yuan in loans to nearly 30 fishermen by integrating fishing vessel valuation and subsidy programs [11] - In Jiangsu province, the introduction of "broccoli loans" has enabled over 30 major growers to expand their planting areas, enhancing production capacity [13] Group 3: Green Finance Initiatives - Local financial institutions have collaborated with industry associations to launch specialized loan products, such as a 50 million yuan "broccoli loan" to support the high-quality development of the broccoli industry [15] - In the context of carbon neutrality goals, innovative financial products have been introduced, such as a 10 million yuan loan for a new materials company aimed at energy-saving technology upgrades, with a 15% lower interest rate compared to traditional loans [16][18] - The establishment of a carbon emission monitoring system in the copper industry has enabled financial institutions to develop differentiated credit policies, supporting low-carbon transitions effectively [20][22][24][27]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the market trends and investment prospects of the Chinese grain industry from 2025 to 2031, focusing on rice prices and their fluctuations [1] Price Trends - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the market price of rice (Japonica rice) in late August 2025 is projected to be 4037 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.76% and no change from the previous month [1] - The highest recorded price in the last five years for Japonica rice was 4068 yuan/ton in late August 2024 [1] - A statistical chart detailing the price changes of Japonica rice from 2019 to late August 2025 is included in the report [1]

Group 1: Company Overview - Leshu Shih, known as the "King of Diapers in Africa," has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the second time after its first submission expired due to not passing the hearing within six months [1] - The company originated from the fast-moving consumer goods division of SenDa Group, which was established in 2000 and expanded into the hygiene products sector in 2009 [2] - Leshu Shih has become a multinational company focusing on emerging markets in Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia, producing baby diapers, pull-ups, sanitary napkins, and wet wipes [2] Group 2: Market Position and Performance - According to Frost & Sullivan, Leshu Shih ranks first in the African baby diaper and sanitary napkin markets with market shares of 20.3% and 15.6%, respectively, based on 2024 sales [2] - The company achieved sales of 4,122.7 million baby diapers and 1,634.3 million sanitary napkins in 2024 [2] - Revenue increased significantly from $320 million in 2022 to $411 million in 2023, but growth is projected to slow to $454 million in 2024, reflecting a 10.5% increase [3] Group 3: Profitability and Margins - Net profit surged from $18 million in 2022 to $65 million in 2023, but the growth rate is expected to decline to 47% in 2024, reaching $95 million [3] - The gross profit margin has shown a downward trend, with margins of 23.0%, 34.9%, 35.2%, and 33.6% for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first four months of 2025, respectively [3][4] Group 4: Strategic Insights - Leshu Shih's pricing power is influenced by brand recognition and market acceptance, allowing it to maintain or increase prices despite competition [4] - The company benefits from a strong supply chain network and local experience accumulated by SenDa Group over decades in Africa [4] - The ongoing population growth and rapid consumption upgrades in Africa are seen as significant growth drivers for the company [6][7] Group 5: Industry Trends - The African population is projected to grow from 1.45 billion in 2022 to 1.55 billion by 2024, creating a substantial demand market for companies [6] - The median age in Africa is 19.3 years, contributing to a youthful consumer base that drives demand for digital services and new consumption patterns [8] - Despite the opportunities, challenges such as weak infrastructure, policy fluctuations, and local competition remain significant hurdles for companies operating in Africa [8]

Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory recorded at 1220.24 tons on September 18, an increase of 1.52 tons from the previous trading day [1][2] - COMEX gold price closed at $3678.20 per ounce on September 18, down 0.44%, with an intraday high of $3707.30 and a low of $3660.50 [1][2] Group 2 - Canadian and Mexican leaders committed to closely coordinate before high-risk trade agreement reviews with the U.S. next year, amid U.S. President Trump's tariff threats [2] - The meeting in Mexico City marked a strengthening of Canada-Mexico relations, with both leaders seeking to persuade Trump to lower import tariffs on steel, automobiles, and agricultural products [2]

Industry Overview Upstream - Glass prices have declined significantly, and coal inventories have increased; egg prices have risen substantially [2] Midstream - The operating rates of PX and PTA have remained stable [3] Downstream - The movie box office is in the off - season, and the number of domestic and international flights has slightly decreased [4] Meso - level Event Overview Production Industry - The Minister of Science and Technology introduced that in the field of humanoid robots, breakthroughs have been made in overall machine technology, and progress has been achieved in key technologies such as multi - modal perception and brain - cerebellum models, promoting the in - depth integration with embodied intelligence and accelerating the application of humanoid robots in scenarios such as automobile manufacturing, logistics handling, and power inspection [1] Service Industry - The National Health Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Administrative Specifications for the Child - Rearing Subsidy System (Trial)", streamlining the application and review processes, clarifying eligibility, optimizing the application procedures, and emphasizing the role of big - data review [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Price on 9/18 | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | 2287.1 yuan/ton | - 0.87% | | | Spot price: Egg | 8.0 yuan/kg | 9.89% | | | Spot price: Palm oil | 9366.0 yuan/ton | 0.13% | | | Spot price: Cotton | 15329.5 yuan/ton | 0.45% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | 19.6 yuan/kg | - 1.91% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price: Copper | 80043.3 yuan/ton | - 0.19% | | | Spot price: Zinc | 22006.0 yuan/ton | - 0.72% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 20906.7 yuan/ton | 0.13% | | | Spot price: Nickel | 123016.7 yuan/ton | - 0.24% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 17062.5 yuan/ton | 1.26% | | | Spot price: Rebar | 3141.0 yuan/ton | 0.56% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price: Iron ore | 807.6 yuan/ton | - 0.59% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | 3342.5 yuan/ton | 1.13% | | | Spot price: Glass | 14.3 yuan/square meter | 1.06% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | 14850.0 yuan/ton | - 1.38% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 793.3 | - 0.24% | | | Spot price: WTI crude oil | 63.7 dollars/barrel | 0.05% | | Energy | Spot price: Brent crude oil | 67.5 dollars/barrel | - 0.04% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | 3854.0 yuan/ton | - 0.72% | | | Coal price: Coal | 781.0 yuan/ton | 0.51% | | | Spot price: PTA | 4644.0 yuan/ton | - 0.11% | | Chemical Industry | Spot price: Polyethylene | 7396.7 yuan/ton | 0.07% | | | Spot price: Urea | 1672.5 yuan/ton | - 0.07% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | 1262.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Cement price index: National | 131.5 | 0.43% | | Real Estate | Building materials composite index | 114.0 points | 0.89% | | | Concrete price index: National index | 91.8 points | - 0.62% | [38]