Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued guidelines for the construction of zero-carbon factories, emphasizing that this initiative is not merely about emission reduction but a comprehensive industrial upgrade centered on carbon efficiency, which will drive high-quality development in China's real economy [1] Group 1: Zero-Carbon Factory Construction Blueprint - The guidelines outline a measurable, reportable, and verifiable carbon management system as the core of zero-carbon factory construction [2] - A phased approach is established, starting with selection in 2026, construction in 2027, and gradual expansion by 2030, considering industry characteristics and carbon emission features [2] - The initiative aims to create leaders in sectors like automotive and lithium batteries while exploring transformation paths for traditional high-energy industries like petrochemicals [2] Group 2: Systematic Emission Reduction Measures - Zero-carbon factories focus on technological innovation, structural adjustments, and management optimization to continuously reduce CO2 emissions [3] - The guidelines propose using product carbon footprints to drive collaborative carbon reduction across the supply chain, emphasizing green solutions in procurement and logistics [3] - Digitalization is highlighted as key for precise carbon management, utilizing industrial internet and big data for real-time monitoring and optimization [3] Group 3: Standardization and Evaluation System - A rigorous, unified standard system is essential for the scale and normalization of zero-carbon factory development, aligning with international standards [4] - The transition from declaration-oriented to performance-oriented international rules emphasizes priority on emission reduction and verification requirements [4] - China's standardization efforts are evolving from pilot group standards to national standards, with over 30 group standards already published [5][6] Group 4: Collaborative Ecosystem for Zero-Carbon Factories - The construction of zero-carbon factories requires collaboration across technology innovation, financial support, professional services, and talent development [7] - Green finance is crucial, with policies in place to provide favorable loans and financial products for zero-carbon factories, reflecting a significant growth in green loans and bonds [7] - The guidelines stress the principle of "reduce as much as possible, continuously improve," prioritizing internal emission reductions before considering carbon offsets [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The outlook for stock index futures is "shockingly strong" [6] - The outlook for stock index options is "shock" [6] - The outlook for treasury bond futures is "shock" [7] Core Viewpoints - Stock index futures: The stock market closed down on low volume, and the consumer sector showed seasonal strength. Before the Spring Festival, it is advisable to buy IM long positions at low prices to wait for an opportunity to attack [1][6] - Stock index options: Implied volatility showed a divergent trend, indicating a range - bound trading sentiment. It is recommended to hold a covered strategy to increase returns [2][6] - Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. In the short term, arbitrage trading is the main strategy, and attention should be paid to the opportunity for the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds to converge [3][7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Stock index futures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down on Thursday with further significant volume contraction. Before the Spring Festival, low - level consumer stocks such as film, beauty care, tourism, and food retail strengthened, while sectors like computing power hardware and space photovoltaics declined. AMD's earnings decline in the US stock market affected the A - share computing power chain. Historically, value dividends are dominant before the Spring Festival, and small - cap growth stocks have a high winning rate after the long holiday. It is advisable to hold IM long positions or ChiNext and STAR Market ETFs [6] Stock index options - On Thursday, the underlying assets fluctuated and adjusted, with the large - cap style stronger than the small - cap style. The total trading volume of financial options was 1.039 billion yuan, a 5.2% increase from Wednesday. The implied volatility of different options showed a divergent trend, and sentiment indicators suggested a range - bound trading sentiment. It is recommended to hold a covered strategy [6] Treasury bond futures - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The long - term treasury bond yield declined, and the short - term yield remained flat, making the yield curve flatter. The central bank provided continuous liquidity support, and the market sentiment was optimistic. The bond market may maintain a range - bound pattern before the "Two Sessions". It is recommended to focus on arbitrage opportunities [7] 2. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content only lists the sub - items of stock index futures data, stock index option data, and treasury bond futures data, without specific data content, so no further summary is made [9][13][25]

Group 1 - The three major indices narrowed their declines after initially dropping over 1%, with the North Stock 50 Index falling over 2% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.18 trillion, a decrease of 304.8 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 3,700 stocks in the market declined, while the consumer sector saw significant gains, particularly in food and beverage, retail, film and television, and tourism [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities predicts faster profit growth in sectors such as aerospace, electricity, and non-ferrous metals based on industrial indicators [2] - The Industrial Prosperity Index, constructed using six industrial indicators, shows a strong correlation with profit growth in manufacturing companies [2] - The index indicates that over 60% of industry prosperity indices correlate with corresponding profit growth rates above 50% [2] Group 3 - Huatai Securities reports that the ongoing negotiations regarding Indonesia's coal production quotas for 2026 are impacting spot coal exports [3] - The reduction in Indonesian coal spot exports is estimated to affect China's monthly average thermal coal consumption and import volumes by 0.5% and 4.2%, respectively [3] - The timing of the quota negotiations coincides with the Lunar New Year, which may amplify the emotional impact on coal consumption beyond the fundamental effects [3]

Core Viewpoint - In January, China's Commodity Price Index (CBPI) reached 125.3 points, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, the highest since July 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The increase in the CBPI indicates a continued recovery and positive market sentiment, supported by national strategic policies and optimistic business expectations [1][2] - The rise in prices is influenced by international geopolitical changes, expectations of loose monetary policy, and significant fluctuations in commodity futures prices, leading to rapid increases in prices of non-ferrous metals and chemicals [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous price index saw a substantial increase, while the chemical price index also rose quickly; the black series price index continued to recover, and agricultural product prices increased slightly [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 33 (66%) experienced price increases, while 17 (34%) saw price declines in January [1] - The top three commodities with the highest price increases were lithium carbonate, refined tin, and refined nickel; the top three with the largest declines were corrugated paper, caustic soda, and coke [1]

大成正向回报基金经理张家旺 深圳商报·读创客户端记者 陈燕青 进入2月，A股迎来调整，沪指一度逼近4000点，随后又有所反弹，有色、AI等强势板块一度出现较大 幅度调整。今年以来，周期股整体走势较强。展望后市，大成正向回报基金经理张家旺近日接受记者采 访时表示，周期品的供需紧平衡状态未变，待市场波动率回落并趋于稳定后，有色金属板块或将迎来更 合适的介入窗口。 有色行业盈利良好 张家旺，拥有超9年证券从业经验，2016年7月加入大成基金，曾先后任宏观策略，金融研究员，2020年 任周期行业组长，现任大成正向回报、大成盛享一年持有、大成安享得利六个月持有等基金的基金经 理。 在张家旺看来，近期A股市场波动更多来自两方面因素：一是短期涨幅偏大带来的获利回吐，二是外部 流动性预期的边际变化。"市场一度担忧新任美联储主席可能推进缩表，从而推升强美元与流动性收紧 预期，进而触发此前涨速较快的金、银、铜等金属价格出现明显调整，进而带动市场调整。" "若后续流动性紧张预期得到缓解，例如美联储通过公开表态引导市场预期，风险偏好有望修复。"张家 旺表示。 去年以通信为代表的成长股整体跑赢周期品，周期股方面有色金属走势强劲。展望今 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京2月5日电（记者刘玉龙） 5日，由中物联大宗商品流通分会和上海钢联等单位联合调查，中国物流与采购联合会发布的2026年1月份中国大宗 商品价格指数（CBPI）为125.3点，环比上涨6.3%，同比上涨12.7%，创2022年7月以来新高。 业内人士分析认为，"两重""两新"政策加力扩围，"反内卷"政策不断深化，提振市场信心，企业预期保持乐观，生产活动延续扩张态势，为"十五五"开局奠 定良好基础。但同时也要看到，国际地缘政治深刻演变、全球货币政策宽松预期以及国际大宗商品期货价格剧烈波动，带动国内有色、化工等价格快速上 涨，亦对国内大宗商品市场带来多重挑战。 图为中国 大宗商品价格指数和CPI、PPI走势 1月份，农产品价格指数小幅走高，报98.3点，环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨5.7%。山东隆众分析师王立晨表示，临近春节，部分农产品品种下游备货需求上 升，价格小幅上行。 | 表为1月份中国大宗商品价格指数及分项指数对比 | | --- | | 项目 | 中国大宗商品 | 能源价格 化工价格 | | 黑色价格 | 有色价格 | | 矿产价格 农产品价格 | | --- | --- | - ...

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for January 2026 reached 125.3 points, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, the highest since July 2022 [1][3] - The increase in the index is attributed to optimistic business expectations and ongoing production expansion, supported by government policies [1] - However, challenges arise from international geopolitical changes, loose monetary policy expectations, and volatile commodity futures prices, necessitating careful risk assessment and macroeconomic policy adjustments [1] Price Index Summary - The CBPI increased to 125.3 points from 117.9 points in December 2025, with significant contributions from various sectors [3] - The energy price index decreased to 94.6 points, down 3.2% month-on-month and down 11.6% year-on-year [3] - The chemical price index rose to 99.3 points, up 3.8% month-on-month but down 9.8% year-on-year [3] - The black metal price index increased to 79.2 points, up 2.2% month-on-month and down 1.6% year-on-year [3] - The non-ferrous metal price index surged to 159.6 points, up 9.9% month-on-month and up 26.6% year-on-year [3] - The agricultural product price index slightly increased to 98.3 points, up 0.2% month-on-month and up 5.7% year-on-year [3] - The mineral price index fell to 71.3 points, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 10.3% year-on-year [3] Commodity Price Movements - Among 50 monitored commodities, 33 (66%) saw price increases while 17 (34%) experienced declines [4] - The top three commodities with the highest month-on-month price increases were lithium carbonate (up 48.4%), refined tin (up 20.2%), and refined nickel (up 19.5%) [4] - The commodities with the largest month-on-month price declines were corrugated paper (down 13.1%), caustic soda (down 7%), and coke (down 6.9%) [4] Comparative Analysis - The CBPI trends align with the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, which saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5] - The CBPI has shown a consistent upward trend alongside international commodity indices such as CRB and S&P GSCI [5] - Geopolitical tensions in North America and the Middle East, along with a weakening US dollar, have contributed to rising international oil prices and record highs in copper prices [5] - January saw historical highs in gold and silver prices, although significant declines occurred later in the month due to margin adjustments and Federal Reserve announcements [5]

资产配置 | 动态跟踪 风险偏好主导资产表现，权益关注风格切 换 ——资产配置月报 202602 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 提 名 沃 什 不 改 美 元 信 用 弱 化 格 局 ： | 2026-02-03 | | --- | --- | | 20260202 多资产配置周报 | | | 预期的变化利好中盘蓝筹：20260126A 股 | 2026-01-28 | | 风格及行业配置周报 | | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | ——资产配置月报 202601 | | 有关分析师的申 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the continuation of technology and resource prosperity, indicating a potential turning point for domestic demand, driven by AI infrastructure investment and signs of recovery in consumer spending [2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Global technology hardware demand remains strong, with a temporary slowdown in storage chip price increases, yet prices remain high [2]. - Resource prices are experiencing localized increases, particularly in chemical products with significant supply constraints, while non-ferrous metal supply remains tight [2]. - Consumer recovery shows some positive signs, with high-end liquor prices stabilizing and progress in real estate policies, suggesting a potential stabilization in domestic demand [2]. Group 2: Downstream Consumption - High-end liquor prices, such as Moutai, have increased by 3.9% for original and 3.0% for bulk, likely due to pre-Spring Festival gifting demand [3]. - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities decreased by 23.1% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a drop of 41.6% [3]. - Retail sales of passenger cars fell by 22.0% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the durable goods sector [3]. Group 3: Technology & Manufacturing - Storage price increases have slowed, with DRAM prices showing mixed trends; DDR4 prices decreased by 1.3% while DDR5 prices increased by 1.4% [4]. - Chemical product prices remain strong, with PX and PTA prices increasing by 5.2% and decreasing by 0.4%, respectively [4]. - Coal prices rose by 1.0% due to a brief cold snap, while industrial metal prices experienced significant volatility influenced by changes in Federal Reserve leadership [4]. Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - Passenger transport demand remained stable before the holiday, with a slight decrease of 0.2% in major cities [5]. - Freight logistics demand increased, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume rising by 4.8% and 2.3% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - Port throughput showed a rebound, indicating a potential recovery in export activity [5].

证 券 研 究 报 告 [T日ab期le_Industry] : shzqdatemark 2026年02月04日 | 固 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 定 | | | | | | | | [T分ab析le师_Author] | 张河生 | : | 收 | Tel: | 021-53686158 | 益 | | E-mail: | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | 周 | 编号: | SAC | S0870523100004 | 报 | | [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] | 《国际避险情绪提升与国内投资风险偏好 | | | | | | | 高企》 | ——2026 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 01 | 30 | | 《结构性降息落地与格陵兰岛局势升级》 | ——2026 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 01 | 21 | | 《投资者风险偏好高企》 | ——2026 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 01 | 13 | [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] 《国际避险情绪提升与国内投资风险 ...