Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is in an upward trend, with the key observation variable being whether the market's profit effect can be sustained. As long as the profit effect remains positive, incremental funds are expected to continue entering the market [2][10][14] - The current WIND All A trend line is around 6184 points, with a profit effect of approximately 0.66%, still positive. It is advised to hold positions until the profit effect turns negative [2][10][14] - The industry allocation model suggests that the precious metals sector is still in an upward trend and should be monitored. Additionally, sectors benefiting from policy-driven initiatives, such as new energy and chemicals, are expected to perform well [2][10][14] Market Overview - The market is currently showing a profit effect of about 0.66%, indicating a positive environment for investment. The report suggests maintaining positions until the profit effect turns negative [2][10][14] - The valuation indicators for the WIND All A index show a PE at the 85th percentile and a PB at the 50th percentile, indicating a moderate valuation level [2][10][14] - The report recommends an 80% allocation to absolute return products based on the current market conditions and trends [2][10][14] Industry Focus - The report highlights the precious metals sector as a continuing upward trend, which should be closely monitored [2][10][14] - The technology sector, particularly chips and robotics, is recommended for continued focus based on the TWO BETA model [2][10][14] - Given the uncertainties surrounding the upcoming National Day holiday, there is a specific emphasis on focusing on dividend-paying sectors as a defensive strategy [2][10][14]

Group 1 - In August, corporate profits turned positive year-on-year, primarily due to a low base from the previous year, with a year-to-date growth rate of 0.9% compared to -1.7% in July, and an August growth rate of 20.4% compared to -1.5% in July [2][9] - The profit distribution has become more reasonable, with upstream industries showing overall improvement supported by anti-involution and price increases, while midstream and downstream industries continue to experience profit differentiation [6][7] - The industrial product inventory continued to decrease, indicating a passive destocking trend, with cumulative revenue growth of 2.3% year-on-year for the first eight months, and August's revenue growth also at 2.3%, both higher than the previous month [9][10] Group 2 - The profit margin showed marginal improvement, with the cumulative profit margin for August at 5.8% and the monthly value at 5.2%, both higher than the previous month, benefiting from a reduction in costs despite a slight increase in raw material prices [4][6] - Upstream industries benefited from price increases and margin improvements, particularly in the steel, coal, and non-ferrous sectors, while midstream industries saw profit growth driven by demand recovery [7][8] - The overall profit structure has improved, with upstream profits maintaining around 25%, midstream at 50%, and downstream slightly recovering to 25%, indicating a more balanced distribution compared to the previous month [6][7]

人民财讯9月27日电，国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁解读2025年1—8月份工业企业利润数据时表 示，原材料制造业利润增长较快，消费品制造业利润由降转增。受市场需求增加、价格回升、成本有所 下降等因素带动，1—8月份，原材料制造业利润同比增长22.1%，较1—7月份加快10.0个百分点，拉动 全部规模以上工业企业利润增长2.5个百分点。其中，钢铁行业同比扭亏为盈，实现利润总额837.0亿 元；有色行业利润增长12.7%，较1—7月份加快5.8个百分点。1—8月份，消费品制造业利润由1—7月份 下降2.2%转为增长1.4%，其中，酒饮料茶、农副食品等行业利润增速较快，分别为19.9%、11.8%，合 计拉动全部规模以上工业利润增长1.0个百分点。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to shock. With the approaching holiday, the activity of the capital market decreased, and short - term style switching and partial withdrawal would occur [2]. - Without incremental negative news, the 1.8 - 1.83% range may be the high - level range for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term decline in interest rates is also limited [2]. - As the end of the quarter approaches, the liquidity of derivative contracts for gold tightens, and the risk of volatility is relatively large. The silver price is driven by both financial and industrial attributes, with high upward elasticity [2]. - The shipping index on the EC (European line) is rising on the disk, and the steel exports support the black valuation, with steel prices continuing to fluctuate [2]. - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height, with short - term shock as the main trend [2]. - The supply of urea remains loose in the short term, and the demand side lacks strong drivers, so the market is weak [2]. - For agricultural products, the supply prospects of overseas sugar are broad, and new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, increasing supply pressure [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Stock Index - TMT continues to lead the market, and most stock indices close higher. It is recommended to sell put options on the MO2511 contract with an execution price near 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums [2]. Treasury Bond - The MLF is renewed with an increased amount, and the overall trend of Treasury bond futures is volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to quick entry and exit. For the basis spread strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and one can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, maintain the idea of buying on dips or buying out - of - the - money call options. For silver, keep a low - buying strategy as its price fluctuates above $43 [2]. Black Steel - Steel exports support the black valuation, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. Try short - buying on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January contract of hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. Iron Ore - The decline in shipments, the increase in molten iron, and the replenishment demand support the high - level shock of iron ore prices. The 2601 contract of iron ore is regarded as volatile, with a reference range of 780 - 850 [2]. Coal - The coal prices in coal - producing areas are stable with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250, and short the coke 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800 [2]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height. It is recommended to adopt a unilateral band - trading strategy, with the WTI operating range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502] [2]. Other Chemicals - For various chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., different trading strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand situations, such as short - selling urea on rallies, and paying attention to the pressure levels for PX and PTA long positions [2]. Agricultural Products - For different agricultural products like soybeans, pigs, corn, etc., different trends and trading suggestions are given. For example, for sugar, conduct short - selling on rebounds; for cotton, short in the short term [2]. Special Commodities - For glass, due to news - driven factors, the glass futures market has risen sharply, and it is recommended to watch cautiously. For rubber, the impact of the typhoon is limited, and the rubber price has fallen slightly, so it is recommended to watch [2]. New Energy - For polysilicon, the market sentiment is repaired, and the futures market rebounds, so it is recommended to watch temporarily. For lithium carbonate, driven by the sector sentiment, the futures market strengthens slightly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [2].

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.35% and the ChiNext Index down 0.42%. Sectors such as photolithography machines, storage chips, and CPO experienced significant declines [1] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities emphasizes a focus on resources, new productive forces, and overseas expansion as the framework for industry selection. The shift of resource stocks from cyclical to dividend attributes, driven by supply constraints and global geopolitical tensions, is expected to lead to a revaluation of these stocks. The anticipated volatility from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is considered negligible. The key mid-term insight is the globalization of China's manufacturing leaders, which is expected to convert market share advantages into pricing power and profit margin improvements, leading to market capitalization growth that surpasses domestic economic fundamentals [2] - Guojin Securities believes that a bull market driven by the recovery of China's profit fundamentals may be in the making. With the easing of liquidity constraints, there may be a rebound in Hong Kong stocks that experienced stagnation from June to August. Additionally, growth investments are expected to shift from technology-driven to export-oriented. Opportunities in cyclical manufacturing sectors (non-ferrous metals, machinery, chemicals) are anticipated to become the mid-term focus. The recommended sectors include upstream resources (copper, aluminum, oil, gold), capital goods (engineering machinery, heavy trucks, lithium batteries, wind power equipment), and raw materials (basic chemicals, fiberglass, paper, steel) [3]

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 【股指】在贵金属、港口航运以及油气等板块的拖累下，国内股市微幅下跌。基 本面上，中国 8 消费同比增长 3.4%，1-8 月投资同比增长 0.5%，工业增加值同 比增长 5.2%，均 ...

谈及看好的板块，她表示，可关注通胀叙事下的周期品，如有色、化工，"反内卷"夯实估值底部；可关 注出口韧性提升、涨幅相对少的行业，如机械设备、电力设备、医药；企业盈利修复之后，内需相关领 域也将出现投资机会，配合对消费政策的积极预期，行情可能轮动到消费和地产板块。 中证报中证网讯(记者魏昭宇)9月25日晚间，路博迈基金首席市场策略师朱冰倩在中国证券报"中证点金 汇"直播间表示，自去年"924"政策推出后，中国资产定价逻辑发生了较大变化，企业盈利下行风险减 少，中长期表现可期。 在投资思路方面，她表示，9月美联储降息窗口开启之后，制造业的前景或更加明朗，并且由于对利率 下行的敏感度不同，投资主线除了落脚到AI科技板块，还有可能扩散到制造业。 ...

Group 1 - The ChiNext Index continues to rise strongly, closing up 1.58%, indicating a bullish market trend that remains intact for long-term investment strategies [2] - Economic data shows a marginal weakening across production, investment, consumption, and export indicators in August compared to July, making it difficult for market styles to shift towards cyclical low-position sectors like consumption and real estate [2] - The monetary policy remains stable with no interest rate cuts, while August's CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year and PPI fell by 2.9%, indicating that inflation expectations have not yet translated to consumer spending [2] Group 2 - In a bull market with continuous inflow of incremental capital, the core contradiction determining sector investment success is the certainty of economic prosperity rather than current valuation levels [3] - The new momentum sectors, including AI, new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industry, are rapidly improving their global competitiveness, providing a foundation for sector rotation and expansion [3] - When certain technology sectors become overheated, capital tends to rotate within the technology sector or expand to other growth lines rather than shifting systematically away from technology [3] Group 3 - The ChiNext Index focuses on new productivity areas, with a strong emphasis on technological innovation, particularly in the new energy sector driven by technological breakthroughs and "anti-involution" [4] - The new technology breakthroughs, such as solid-state batteries, are opening a second growth curve for the industry, while the supply-demand dynamics in traditional new energy sectors are showing signs of improvement [4] - Tianhong ChiNext Index Quantitative Enhanced Fund aims for sustainable excess returns by closely aligning with the growth style and technological characteristics of the ChiNext Index, utilizing AI models for trading operations [4]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened slightly lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index maintaining narrow fluctuations throughout the day, while the ChiNext Index rose over 2% at one point, reaching a three-year high [1] - By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.58% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 2.39 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The controllable nuclear fusion concept saw strong performance, with stocks like Haheng Huaton and Hezhuan Intelligent hitting the daily limit [1] - The copper cable high-speed connection concept was active, with stocks such as New Asia Electronics also reaching the daily limit [1] - The short drama gaming concept gained momentum, with Huanrui Century hitting the daily limit [1] - The multimodal AI concept rose, with Tianxiexiu reaching the daily limit [1] - The liquid cooling server concept also saw gains, with stocks like Cambridge Technology and Inspur Information hitting the daily limit [1] Notable Stocks - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) saw its stock rise over 5% during the day, reaching a historical high, with a total market value exceeding 1.84 trillion yuan [1] - Sectors such as IT equipment, internet, non-ferrous metals, and electrical equipment showed significant gains, while textiles and apparel, engineering machinery, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and transportation infrastructure sectors experienced declines [1]

较高的电气化率反映出我国电力供给不断增强，能源绿色低碳转型加快。 杨昆表示，随着绿色电气化进程的加快推进，预计今年年底我国将以超过20%的新能源电量占比，拉动非化石能源消费比重达到20%以上，预 计到2060年我国全社会用电量将较2020年实现翻番，电气化率将超过65%，终端用能实现高度电气化。 《报告》提出，我国工业领域电气化率稳中有升，2024年达到约27.7%，较上年提高0.6个百分点，其中四大高载能行业合计电气化率约 18.4%，较上年提高0.1个百分点，高技术及装备制造业合计电气化率约64.7%，较上年提高0.1个百分点，消费品制造业合计电气化率约 46.0%，较上年提高0.8个百分点。 工业和信息化部运行监测协调局二级巡视员朱璋表示，推动电气化的发展，是实现新型工业化"双碳"目标路线的关键路径，对于提升工业本质 安全，培育新质生产力意义重大。 2024年我国电气化率约28.8%，较上年提高0.9个百分点，中国电气化率已经高于欧美主要发达经济体。到2030年，全国电气化率预计将达到 35%左右，超出经济合作与发展组织国家平均水平8到10个百分点。 中国电力企业联合会编制的《中国电气化年度发展报告20 ...