Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 铁矿: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四铁矿收涨。夜盘收涨。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | 1、2026 | 年 | 2 | 月 | 18 | 日，巴西外贸委员会管理执行委员会(GECEX)发布 | 2026 | 年第 | 856 | 号决议，对原产于中国的镀锌和镀铝锌板卷作出反倾销肯定性终裁，决定对中国涉 | | 案产品征收为期 | 5 | 年的反倾销税，税额为 | 284.98－709.63 | 美元/吨。 | 2、026 | 年春节前后，中国船舶工业签约捷报频传，多家企业在国际市场斩获多项重 | | | | | 磅订单，涵盖散货船、滚装船、重吊船等多元船型，展现中国造船业的强劲竞争力 | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 震荡 | 与全球认可度，为全 ...

多元金融板块盘中震荡走强，南华期货逼近涨停，瑞达期货、翠微股份、永安期货、弘业期货、越秀资 本跟涨。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-27原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2604： 1.基本面：作为调解方的阿曼表示，美国与伊朗在旨在解决一项长期核争端并避免美国新的军事打击的谈判 中取得了重大进展，华盛顿目前在中东地区部署了大量军力；尽管与俄罗斯的谈判陷入僵局，乌克兰和美国 官员周四仍在日内瓦举行会谈，商讨战后重建事宜；数据显示，随着美国对伊朗发动打击的威胁加剧、买家 纷纷锁定原油船货，周四从中东租用超大型油轮前往中国的成本自2020年以来首次突破每日20万美元；中性 2.基差：2月26日，阿曼原油现货价为71.03美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.89美元/桶，基差42.31元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market is currently in an observational phase with no clear consensus-driven trends. The short - term market is unlikely to have a unilateral trend, and the Fed's interest - rate cut narrative may be the next potential catalyst [2]. - The RMB exchange rate has shown strength. Short - term strategies for export and import enterprises are proposed, such as export enterprises locking in forward exchange settlement and import enterprises adopting a rolling purchase strategy [3][4]. - The stock index is expected to be bullish, while the bond market should focus on the Two Sessions' news [5][6]. - The container shipping market for the European route is expected to be weak in the short term, with a shift in trading logic [7][10]. - In the new energy market, the speculative sentiment of lithium carbonate is strong, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand [12][15]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, aluminum and its related products are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly, nickel - stainless steel is expected to fluctuate at a high level, tin is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and lead is expected to fluctuate and adjust [18][22][23][25][27][28]. - In the oil and fat feed market, oilseeds have strong expectations but weak reality, and oils are expected to improve [29][31]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, high - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, low - sulfur fuel oil is strong, and asphalt prices may decline [34][35]. - In the precious metal market, platinum - palladium is expected to be in a long - term bull market, and gold - silver is strategically bullish in the short term [38][40][41][43]. - In the chemical market, pulp and offset paper are expected to fluctuate at a low level, pure benzene - styrene should pay attention to geopolitical trends, LPG is affected by geopolitics, PX - PTA is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, MEG - bottle chips are expected to fluctuate widely, methanol can consider a positive spread strategy, plastics PP are expected to fluctuate and decline, and rubber is expected to fluctuate in a range [45][47][50][52][56][59][61][64]. - In the black market, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be weak, iron ore may recover seasonally, coking coal and coke need to focus on the resumption rhythm, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese should wait for the hedging opportunity [79][80][81][84]. - In the agricultural and soft commodity market, the price of live pigs may continue to decline, cotton is recommended to go long on dips, sugar's rebound space is limited, eggs may fluctuate at a low level in the short term and rise in the medium term, apples are supported by delivery contradictions, dates are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and logs can be observed [85][88][91][92][100][102][103]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The indirect negotiation between Iran and the US ended with "significant progress". The US initial jobless claims were 212,000, the Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, and the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore and off - shore RMB against the US dollar both broke through the 6.84 mark. Short - term strategies for export and import enterprises are provided [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to be bullish, with attention on the sustainability of trading volume [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is bearish, and attention should be paid to the news of the Two Sessions [5][6]. - **Container Shipping for European Route**: The market is weak, with a shift in trading logic from expecting price increases to facing price cuts in the off - season [7][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The speculative sentiment is strong, and upstream enterprises are recommended to hedge by shorting at high prices [12][14]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are in a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term prices may break through the support level, and medium - term strategies are to go long at low prices [15][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and different trading strategies are proposed [18][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different products [22][23]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback of tariff news [23][24]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to US tariff and Indonesian supply - side factors [25][26]. - **Tin**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the approval progress in Indonesia and the actual resumption progress in Myanmar [27]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and interval operations are recommended [28]. Oil and Fat Feed - **Oilseeds**: They have strong expectations but weak reality. After the market returns to fundamentals, shorting and reverse - spread opportunities can be considered [29][30]. - **Oils**: They are expected to improve, and long - position opportunities at low prices can be considered for palm oil [31][32]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil is strong. The market shows a differentiated pattern [34]. - **Asphalt**: Prices may decline, especially when the demand after the Spring Festival is lower than expected [35]. Precious Metals - **Platinum - Palladium**: They are expected to be in a long - term bull market, but attention should be paid to various risk factors [38][40]. - **Gold - Silver**: They are strategically bullish in the short term, and long - position strategies on dips are recommended [41][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and interval trading strategies are recommended [45][46]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Attention should be paid to geopolitical trends, and long - position strategies on dips are recommended for styrene [47][49]. - **LPG**: It is mainly affected by geopolitics, and the short - term pricing is dominated by the Iran - US situation [50][51]. - **PX - PTA**: They are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and long - position strategies on dips and short - spread strategies for processing fees are recommended [52][55]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are expected to fluctuate widely, and short - selling is not recommended in the short term [56][58]. - **Methanol**: A positive spread strategy for the 5 - 9 contract can be considered, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors [59][60]. - **Plastic PP**: They are expected to fluctuate and decline, and attention should be paid to the demand after the resumption of work by downstream enterprises and the inventory removal speed [61][63]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate in a range, and different trading strategies are recommended for different types of rubber [64][71]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to buy at a low price, and the market price is expected to rise steadily [72]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to fluctuate with limited price movement, and glass prices are restricted by supply recovery and high inventory in the middle - stream [74][75]. - **Propylene**: It is affected by cost and supply - demand factors, and the market is still supported fundamentally [76][77]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to be weak, and although the market may hype up expectations near the Two Sessions, the fundamentals are still weak [79]. - **Iron Ore**: It may recover seasonally, and low - buying opportunities or positive - spread strategies can be considered at low valuations [79][80]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They need to focus on the resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills after the Spring Festival, and the price may face short - term supply - demand mismatch or downward pressure [81][83]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are affected by manganese ore news, and hedging opportunities after the emotional release can be waited for [84]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The price is expected to continue to decline, and a sell - call option strategy is proposed [85][87]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and US trade policy [88][90]. - **Sugar**: The rebound space is limited, although there is some upward driving force [91]. - **Eggs**: They may fluctuate at a low level in the short term and rise in the medium term [92][93]. - **Apples**: The short - term demand is weak after the Spring Festival, but the delivery contradiction provides support [100][101]. - **Dates**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the post - festival replenishment demand [102]. - **Logs**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and an observation strategy is recommended [103].

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2026/2/27 | 星期五 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4731.40 | 4727.00 | 4696.40 | 4640.20 | 前日收盘价 | 4712.20 | 4706.60 | 4671.20 | 4614.80 | | | 涨跌 | -18.80 | -18.80 | -24.60 | -24.60 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘回调，价格仍在20均线以上。矿市春节期间稳定，印尼矿区虽发生滑坡事故，涉事区 域暂停运营，但对整体供应影响不大，矿价依然坚挺，镍铁价格节前也有小幅反弹，成本线支撑强劲。 电解镍产量1月回升，前期减产产能恢复生产，国内外库存累加高位，整体供应充足。下游不锈钢库存 回升，节前消费比较疲软，新能源产业上，新能源车一季度也是个消费淡季，总体需求偏弱。偏空 2、基差：现货143700，基差2660，偏多 3、库存：LME库存289506，+1698，上交所仓单53158，-19，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向下，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净多，多增，偏多 6、结论：沪镍2605：20均线上下震荡运行。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格上涨，短期镍矿价格坚挺，印尼需求强劲，镍铁价格反弹，成本线支撑强劲， 不锈钢库存持续回升，节后关注需求能否有效回升。中性 2、基差：不锈钢平 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年2月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Covrig Analytics:26/27年度全球糖过剩预计缩减至140万吨，低于25/26年度的470 万吨。Green Pool：预计26/27年度全球糖供应量过剩15.6万吨，低于25/26年度的274万吨。2026 年1月底，25/26年度本期制糖全国累计产糖689万吨；全国累计销糖290万吨；销糖率42.09%。 2025年12月中国进口食糖58万吨，同比增加19万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计6.97万吨，同 比减少12.08万吨。偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势偏不明朗， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：伊美第三轮谈判结束，双方分歧较大，金价震荡；美国三大股指收盘涨 跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌 4.59个基点报4.004%；美元指数涨0.13%报97.79，离岸人民币对美元大幅升值报 6.8444；COMEX黄金期货跌0.47%报5201.50美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1146.48，现货1143.78，基差-2.7，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单105072千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；中性 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-2-27） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：节后煤矿复产进度持续推进，部分前期停产检修的煤矿已恢复正常生产，焦煤供应量较节 日期间有明显增加。而春节后短时间内焦企以去库为主，对原料煤采购偏谨慎，补库需求较低，线上竞 拍成交价普遍出现下跌。短期来看节后焦煤市场正处于供需双弱的恢复初期，供应恢复略快于需求启动， 价格平稳偏弱为主；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1200，基差110；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存820万吨，港口库存258万吨，独立焦企库存893万吨，总样本库存1971万吨，较上 周减少243万吨；偏多 6、预期：下游焦钢企业对炼焦煤的需求处于季节性低位，多消耗节前库存为主，采购积极性普遍不高， 库存偏低者刚需补库 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-2-27 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 中东美伊局势升级，原油高位震荡，地缘政治溢价明显，支撑聚烯烃成本。美最高法院裁定特朗 普关税违法，其立刻宣布对全球加征15%进口关税，制品未来出口可能受影响。国内方面，3月两 会可能的刺激政策、特朗普来访前中美的谈判博弈均有可能增加市场对需求预期。供需端，塑编 复工速度偏慢，bopp复工较快但面临部分成品库存压力。当前PP交割品现货价6680（+0），基本 面整体中性； • 2. 基差： PP 2605合约基差5，升贴水比例0.1%，中性； • 3. 库存：PP综合库存74万吨（+34.9） ...