1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market declined 0.25% last week, with precious metals leading the decline at 2.75%, while non - ferrous and black metals rose 2.14% and 0.55% respectively. The market may continue to oscillate due to factors such as the Middle East situation and liquidity tightening [2][7]. - The short - term commodity market is expected to be mainly volatile as the market repeatedly assesses the Middle East war situation, with high oil prices potentially lasting longer, a relatively strong US dollar, and continued liquidity tightening [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Performance**: The commodity market fell 0.25% last week. Precious metals led the decline at 2.75%, agricultural products and energy - chemical products dropped 1.15% and 0.12% respectively, while non - ferrous and black metals increased 2.14% and 0.55% [2][7]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased significantly last week. Energy - chemical varieties mostly had obvious volatility increases, and gold and coking coal also saw large volatility increases [2][7]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale continued to decline, with only the black sector having a small net inflow of funds, and the main outflow coming from the precious metals sector [2][7]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: There is a huge difference in the cease - fire demands between the US and Iran, and the war is unlikely to end in the short term. The market sentiment fluctuates with information about the US - Iran war, and the sector will oscillate until the war situation becomes clearer [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The Middle East situation dominates trading. The strong US dollar index exerts pressure, but the resource attributes of non - ferrous varieties are prominent. With the price decline, downstream replenishment and production are active, and inventory inflection points appear, supporting prices. The short - term sector may oscillate [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar continued to pick up, production decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Blast furnaces are in the seasonal resumption of production, and hot metal output is rising, but poor steel mill profits limit the upward space. Iron ore shipments may be affected by the hurricane in Australia, and domestic port inventories are seasonally decreasing. Geopolitical conflicts support coking coal prices. The short - term sector may be stable [3]. - **Energy**: It is difficult for Iran and the US to reach a cease - fire agreement in the short term, and the situation escalated over the weekend. There is a large gap between the capacity of alternative oil pipelines in the Middle East and the normal transportation volume of the Strait of Hormuz. In the short term, oil prices have high two - way volatility risks, and in the long term, the key variable for oil price trends is the smooth passage of the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: The turmoil in the Middle East strongly supports the cost side of the chemical sector. Asphalt and methanol may have strong upward elasticity and limited downward space. For olefins, high prices squeeze downstream profits, and demand is expected to weaken. For aromatic varieties, downstream polyester, printing and dyeing, and textile industries have slight capacity increases, but terminal follow - up is slow [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products fluctuate with crude oil. The expected El Niño climate model and the undetermined time of Trump's visit to China increase the sector's uncertainty. During the new crop planting period, the fertilizer market's contradictions need time to be observed, and the planting structure and crop yields need to be monitored. The short - term sector may oscillate [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with an average decline of about 4% and a combined scale decline of 3.89%. The trading volume also decreased significantly [37]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 3.35% return, the feed bean粕 ETF declined 2.82%, the non - ferrous metal ETF rose 1.43%, and the silver futures (LOF) declined 1.28% [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The steel price is supported by costs and will fluctuate in the short - term. The steel mill profitability rate has increased but remains at a low level. The start - up rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have risen, and hot metal production has increased. The production of rebar has decreased, while the production of hot - rolled coils has increased. The demand for steel continues to recover, but the recovery is slow. The inventory of steel products has continued to decline, and the pressure has been relieved, but it is still at a high level. The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to an increase in raw material prices, which supports the steel price, while high inventory and slow demand recovery suppress price increases [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Product Situation - **Supply**: The steel production is at a low level year - on - year. The weekly production of rebar from major steel mills nationwide is 197.87 million tons (-5.46), and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils is 305.61 million tons (+5.4) [4]. - **Demand**: The demand for steel continues to recover. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 225.37 million tons (+17.28), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 313.63 million tons (+3.12) [4]. - **Inventory**: The de - stocking amplitude of rebar has increased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. The total inventory of rebar is 861.91 million tons (-27.5), the social inventory is 642.75 million tons (-10.46), and the steel mill inventory is 219.16 million tons (-17.04). The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 453.27 million tons (-8.02), the social inventory is 369.42 million tons (-6.91), and the steel mill inventory is 83.85 million tons (-1.11) [4]. - **Basis**: As of March 27, the basis of the rebar main contract is 96 yuan/ton (0), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract is - 9 yuan/ton (+8) [4]. - **Summary**: The steel mill profitability rate is 43.29%, a 0.87% increase from the previous period. The hot metal production is 231.09 million tons, a 2.94 - million - ton increase from the previous period. The blast furnace start - up rate is 81.03%, a 1.44% increase from the previous period, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 86.63%, a 2.61% increase from the previous period. The electric furnace start - up rate is 68.82%, a 9.55% increase from the previous period, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 58.87%, a 6.13% increase from the previous period [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices As of March 27, the average price of rebar HRB400E 20MM in major cities nationwide is 3324 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period; the average price of hot - rolled coils 4.75MM nationwide is 3322 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period [8]. 3.3 Raw Materials The cost side still has support. The price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke is 1500 yuan/ton (+30), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1530 yuan/ton (+62), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 786 yuan/ton (-12) [15]. 3.4 Other Market Indicators - **Blast Furnace and Electric Furnace Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces continue to rise, and hot metal production increases [18]. - **Steel Mill Profitability Rate**: The steel mill profitability rate has increased [25]. - **Tangshan Blast Furnace Start - up Rate**: As of March 27, the Tangshan blast furnace start - up rate is 95.15%, a 1.71% increase from the previous period [31]. - **Production Volume**: The rebar production has decreased, with a 5.46 - million - ton decrease in the weekly production. The long - process production has decreased by 4.01 million tons, and the short - process production has decreased by 1.45 million tons. The hot - rolled coil production has increased by 5.4 million tons [33][36][37]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand has increased but is still at a low level year - on - year [40]. - **Trading Volume**: The weekly average trading volume of rebar is 9.4 million tons, running at a low level. The weekly average trading volume of hot - rolled coils is 4.717 million tons, and the downstream cold - rolled production is 89.2 million tons, a 0.35 - million - ton increase from the previous period, at a high level year - on - year [45][49]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, the Tangshan billet inventory is 72.75 million tons, a 2.25 - million - ton decrease from the previous period, at a high level. The inventory of major steel products is 1387.29 million tons, a 23.33 - million - ton decrease from the previous period [52]. - **Exports**: From January to February, steel exports were 15.59 billion tons, an 8% year - on - year decrease; hot - rolled coil exports were 2.2488 billion tons, a 35% year - on - year decrease [63]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In February, automobile production was 1.672 million vehicles, a 777,900 - vehicle decrease from the previous period; automobile sales were 1.805 million tons, a 541,500 - ton decrease from the previous period. New - energy vehicle production was 694,000 vehicles, a 347,000 - vehicle decrease from the previous period; new - energy vehicle sales were 765,000 tons, an 180,000 - ton decrease from the previous period [67]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to February, real estate investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the newly started housing area was 23.1%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the completed housing area was 27.9%, the year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing sales area was 13.5%, the year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing sales volume was 20.2%, and the year - on - year decrease in the available funds was 16.5% [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The copper market sentiment is cautious, and copper prices are in a state of shock and wait - and - see. The short - term trend of copper prices is weakly volatile, and it is difficult to rebound significantly before the Middle East situation and the Fed's policy become clear [4][5] Summary by Related Catalog Market Conditions - The Middle East situation remains unclear, market sentiment is weak. Today, crude oil prices have risen sharply, the chemical sector has generally increased, with pure benzene and methanol reaching new highs, and caustic soda dropping significantly. Silver and gold prices have increased. Non - ferrous metals have rebounded intraday, with aluminum and tin rising significantly. LME copper and SHFE copper have increased, while domestic spot copper prices have decreased [4] Copper Price and Inventory - Today, SHFE copper closed at 95,760, and the spot price was 9,5380, with a spot - to - futures discount of - 380 points. The spot basis discount today was - 55 points, and this week's spot trading was poor. The LME spot discount has narrowed to - 71 dollars, indicating still poor overseas spot demand. This week, the US copper inventory has slightly increased, the SHFE copper inventory has decreased, and the LME copper inventory has increased [4] Exchange Rate and Premium - This week, the RMB exchange rate has dropped significantly, and the Yangshan copper premium has risen significantly to 68 dollars, indicating a significant improvement in domestic spot demand. The LME - SHFE copper ratio has risen to 7.92, and international copper has changed to a premium of 53 points over SHFE copper, with the external market ratio slightly higher than the domestic market [4] Technical and Market Sentiment - Today, LME copper has risen slightly, trading around 12,190 dollars. SHFE copper has also risen slightly, closing at 95,760, with a weak technical pattern. Both trading volume and open interest of SHFE copper have decreased, and market sentiment is cautious. In the spot market, domestic and LME copper spot demand is poor, and US copper buying has declined. Recently, US copper has been at a discount to LME copper, and market sentiment has weakened [5] Market Concerns - The international situation remains tense, and there are concerns about the global economy being under pressure. At the same time, the uncertainty of the Fed's future policies has increased. US copper is under pressure near its previous high, demand has weakened, and the uncertainty of long - term AI demand is high [5] Copper Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract LME - SHFE Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | March 24 | 6.8809 | 50 | 53.5 | - 85 | 7.68 | | March 25 | 6.8818 | 370 | 53.5 | - 92 | 7.85 | | March 26 | 6.9205 | 340 | 70.5 | - 71 | 7.81 | | March 27 | 6.9198 | - 240 | 68 | - 70 | 7.82 | | March 30 | 6.9095 | - 380 | 68 | - 71 | 7.92 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical risks, and commodity price volatility on asset allocation strategies for businesses in 2026, emphasizing the need for companies to adapt and utilize derivative tools to enhance competitiveness in uncertain environments [6][8][9]. Macroeconomic Perspective - The macroeconomic forum will feature discussions on the 2026 economic outlook and investment strategies for major asset classes, highlighting the importance of understanding global economic trends [14][16][17]. Industry Perspective - The article outlines three closed-door sessions focusing on different sectors: non-ferrous metals, black metals, and new energy, each addressing specific industry challenges and potential solutions [7][9][10]. - In the non-ferrous metals session, the core issue revolves around the transformation of demand and the potential for a bull market in 2026, with a focus on how companies can leverage derivative tools [8][18]. - The black metals session will explore the impact of geopolitical risks and the dual carbon goals on supply-demand dynamics, aiming to identify opportunities and risks in the steel market [9][19]. - The new energy session will discuss the supply-demand shifts in lithium and silicon, emphasizing the volatility in prices and the strategic use of derivatives to maintain competitive advantages [10][22]. Practical Applications - The article emphasizes the need for companies to adopt practical solutions to navigate the increasing uncertainty in global markets, particularly through the use of futures and options [6][8][9]. - Each industry session will provide actionable insights and strategies for businesses to enhance their market positioning amidst changing economic conditions [7][9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile rebound. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 2.28%, Shanghai Silver up 2.80%, platinum up 2.66%, and palladium up 0.61%. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, volatile at a low level in the medium - term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1] - In the short - term, there are risks of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level. The risk of the Iran war expanding is rising, and the Middle East crisis may become long - term. The US import prices in February had the largest increase in four years, suggesting that future inflation may accelerate. The Fed will maintain the interest rate this month, indicating high uncertainty in the policy outlook due to the Iran war. The probability of an interest - rate hike within the year has increased, and the bet on interest - rate cuts has been postponed to 2027 [1] - The Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the risk of a global recession, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2] - **Price Data**: Comex gold active contract closed at $4521.30 per ounce, up 3.30% from the previous day; London gold was at $4504.15 per ounce, up 1.07%. Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 1014.88 yuan per gram, up 1.62% [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold positions were 403,925 lots, down 2.42% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold main contract positions were 180,953 lots, up 7.02% from the previous day. LBMA gold inventory was 9,210 tons, up 0.56% [2] Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [4] - **Price Data**: Comex silver active contract closed at $69.77 per ounce, up 2.41% from the previous day; London silver was at $67.80 per ounce, up 0.75%. Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 17,707 yuan per kilogram, up 1.25% [4] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver positions were 113,164 lots, down 1.39% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver main contract positions were 3,508,275 lots, up 3.63% from the previous day. The total visible inventory was 37,948 tons, down 0.33% [4] Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - losses/take - profits are necessary [6] - **Price Data**: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2113.20 per ounce, up 4.38% from the previous day; London platinum was at $2118 per ounce, up 1.97%. Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 552.70 yuan per gram, up 3.73% [7] - **Position and Inventory**: NYMEX platinum active contract positions were 34,868 lots, down 6.76% from the previous day. NYMEX platinum total inventory was 19 tons, unchanged [7] Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - losses/take - profits are required [8] - **Price Data**: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1620.50 per ounce, up 3.81% from the previous day; London palladium was at $1601 per ounce, down 3.04%. Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 407.75 yuan per gram, up 2.31% [8] - **Position and Inventory**: NYMEX palladium active contract positions were 14,847 lots, up 0.89% from the previous day. NYMEX palladium total inventory was 8 tons, up 22.15% [8] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **Monetary Attributes**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%. The Fed's total assets are 6,708.36 billion US dollars. The M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.88% [9] - **Inflation in the US**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.50%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.83%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 3.06% [9] - **US Economic Growth**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate is 2.10%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate is 0.70%. The unemployment rate is 4.40% [9] - **US Labor Market**: The monthly change in non - farm employment is - 92,000, the labor participation rate is 61.90%, and the average hourly wage growth rate is 3.80% [9] - **US Real Estate Market**: Existing home sales are 4.09 million units, new home sales are 480,000 units, and new home starts are 1.043 million units [9] - **US Consumption**: Retail sales year - on - year growth rate is 2.08%, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate is 5.25%, and the personal savings as a proportion of disposable income is 4.50% [11] - **US Industry**: The industrial production index year - on - year growth rate is 1.44%, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.29% [11] - **US Trade**: Exports year - on - year growth rate is 9.68%, imports year - on - year growth rate is - 26.33%, and the trade balance is - 54.5 billion US dollars [11] - **US Economic Surveys**: ISM manufacturing PMI index is 52.40, ISM services PMI index is 56.10, Markit manufacturing PMI index is 52.40, and Markit services PMI index is 51.10 [11] - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's gold reserves are 2,308.50 tons, the US's are 8,133.46 tons, and the world's are 36,458.24 tons [11] - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves Proportion**: The US dollar accounts for 56.32%, the euro accounts for 21.13%, and the RMB accounts for 2.12% [11] - **Geopolitical and Market Indicators**: The geopolitical risk index is 335.15, the VIX index is 31.05, the CRB commodity index is 368.91, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9184 [11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the federal funds rate remaining in the 350 - 375 range is relatively high in the near - term, but the probability of a rate cut gradually increases over time [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026 Q1, the domestic live pig market showed a trend of "rising first and then falling, and continuously hitting bottom". The futures price rebounded before the Spring Festival due to the boost of curing and holiday demand, but fell after the Spring Festival due to weak consumption demand and weakened secondary fattening sentiment [1][2] - Looking forward to Q2 2026, the oversupply pressure in the live pig market is still being released. The pig price is likely to continue to bottom out in the low - level range in the short term, and there may be a phased trend market in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the breeding strategies of farmers in the off - season [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - In 2026 Q1, the domestic live pig futures and spot markets showed a trend of "rising first and then falling, and continuously hitting bottom", and the industry fell into deep losses [2] - From the beginning of the year to before the Spring Festival: The peak season was not prosperous, and the destocking of breeding sows was less than expected. The spot price briefly soared to about 13.18 yuan/kg in January, but the futures market declined due to the less - than - expected destocking of breeding sows [2] - After the Spring Festival: The demand was dismal, and the industry fell into deep losses. The supply was abundant, and the demand entered the traditional off - season. The narrowing of the white - hair price difference and the slow sales of white - striped pork further suppressed the pig price [3] Chapter 3: Key Points of Concern 3.1 Supply - side Concerns - **Breeding sows**: The current live pig slaughter is mainly determined by the breeding sow inventory in April - May 2025, which was still at a high level. The destocking of breeding sows has been slow, but may accelerate due to serious losses in pig breeding. The proportion of binary and ternary breeding sows has remained relatively stable, and the overall breeding capacity has been increasing [6] - **Production efficiency**: The current PSY and MSY of live pig production are at historical highs, which has significantly enhanced the actual supply capacity of commercial pigs. The release of "invisible production capacity" has led to continuous pressure on pig prices and deepened industry losses [8] - **Live pig slaughter volume**: From the beginning of the year to around the Spring Festival, the domestic live pig slaughter showed the characteristics of "high - level operation of total volume, slow - then - fast slaughter rhythm, and high proportion of large pigs". The slaughter pressure increased rapidly after the Spring Festival. In March, the planned slaughter volume of group pig enterprises increased significantly compared with that in February [10] - **Average slaughter weight of live pigs**: The average slaughter weight of live pigs in early January was relatively low, and did not decrease significantly before the Spring Festival as in previous years. After the Spring Festival, the problem of large pigs was prominent, and the average slaughter weight continued to rise, reaching a high level in the same period in the past five years [12] 3.2 Demand - side Concerns - **Slaughter enterprises**: The overall slaughter volume of live pigs in 2026 was relatively high. In January, the slaughter volume increased by 15.4% compared with the same period last year, but the data of sample enterprises showed different trends [17] - **Terminal fresh sales situation**: The fresh sales rate in the terminal live pig market has dropped significantly due to increased slaughter volume and slow sales of white - striped pork. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the fresh sales market will continue to fluctuate at a low level under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [19] Chapter 4: Cost Valuation and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Breeding Profit - The live pig breeding industry is in a state of deep losses, with self - breeding and self - raising suffering more severe losses. The loss per pig in self - breeding and self - raising has expanded to - 344.24 yuan, and the loss in purchasing piglets for fattening is in the range of - 141.48 yuan to - 199.25 yuan [21] - The secondary fattening behavior in the live pig market has shown a "rational slowdown" feature, with low utilization rate of fattening pens and narrowing or inverted spread between standard and fat pigs [23][24] 4.2 Feed Cost - The feed cost of live pig breeding is rising due to the increasing prices of corn and soybean meal, which has further exacerbated the industry's losses [26] 4.3 Summary and Supply - Demand Outlook - In Q1, the pig price showed a unilateral accelerating downward trend, and the industry has fallen into deep cash - flow losses. Although the destocking of breeding sows is currently less than expected, it may accelerate in the future [28] - In the short term, the oversupply pressure in the live pig market will still be released, and the pig price is likely to continue to bottom out at a low level. In the supply side, as the industry enters a deep - loss stage, the sow production capacity will shrink, and the marginal supply pressure may decrease [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bullish rating on precious metal futures [1] Core Viewpoints - Due to the ongoing intense and stalemated conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, along with large - scale protests in the US against the Trump administration, global stock markets have fallen significantly, and risk - aversion sentiment has re - heated. This has increased the short - term bullish momentum for gold, while the bullish momentum for silver has weakened, and it mainly follows gold passively. In the medium term, the precious metal market may still be in a wide - range oscillation pattern until the policy of the new Federal Reserve chairman becomes clearer [1] Directory Summaries 1. Market Review and Outlook - The US - Israel - Iran conflict remains intense and stalemated. Iran has increased its attacks on the US and Israel, and Tehran has been more frequently and severely bombed. There are large - scale protests against the Trump administration in the US, with over 900,000 people expected to participate in 3,100 protests across 50 states. Global stock markets have fallen, and risk - aversion sentiment has re - heated, increasing the short - term bullish momentum for gold [1] 2. Factors to Consider - The factors to consider include Middle - East geopolitical games, US economic data, and Federal Reserve policy expectations [2] 3. Futures Market Review - The report presents charts of gold and silver futures' internal and external prices, as well as the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai gold and silver futures, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [3] 4. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The report shows charts of the US dollar index and gold price, and US interest rates and gold price, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [7][9] 5. Macroeconomic Data - The report includes charts of US CPI inflation data, PCE inflation data, initial jobless claims, unemployment rate and new non - farm employment, PMI, retail and personal disposable income, new private housing starts, and new housing sales, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [14][19][20] 6. Fund Holdings and Ratios - The report provides charts of silver and gold ETF total holdings, the holding ratios of gold and silver asset management institutions, and the gold - silver ratio and gold - copper ratio, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [23][26][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, most futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose, with the main contract EC2606 closing up 6.32% and far - month contracts rising between 2 - 7%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1752.54, up 59.28 points from last week, a 3.5% increase. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, with the US - Iran conflict and Houthi attacks on Israel increasing uncertainty. High oil prices drive up container transportation costs, leading to an increase in futures prices. Shipowners may try to raise prices in April, but the increase is expected to be small due to supply - demand factors. The eurozone's unemployment rate dropped to a record low of 6.1% in January, and inflation accelerated unexpectedly in February with a 1.9% year - on - year increase in CPI. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged, but concerns about imported inflation led to an increased expectation of a policy tightening. The market fully anticipates the ECB to restart rate hikes in July. Overall, with the geopolitical situation uncertain, the detour expectation gradually materializing, and the shipping industry's fundamental pattern unchanged, along with limited upside in April, shipowners' price adjustment efforts have decreased. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track airline quotes, cargo volume data, and the persistence of the US - Iran conflict [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1719.700, down 19.3; EC secondary main contract closing price: 2532.3, up 150.6 - EC2604 - EC2606 spread: - 812.60, down 162.60; EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 819.30, down 151.30 - EC contract basis: - 26.44, up 15.30 - EC main contract open interest: 7029, down 2233 [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1752.54, up 59.28; SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly): 1826.77, up 239.29; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly): 119.82, up - CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly): 1139.04, up 18.43; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1485.47, up 21.72 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2031.00, down 17.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1756.00, up 14.00 - Average charter price (Panamax): 0.00, up 0.00; Average charter price (Capesize): 22291.00, down 1177.00 [1] 3.3 Industry News - The US - Israel - Iran conflict is intense and stalemated. Iran has increased its attacks on the US and Israel, and the US is preparing for a ground operation in Iran. The People's Bank of China held a financial stability meeting in 2026, aiming to improve the financial risk prevention and resolution system [1] 3.4 Key Events to Watch - March 31st: Japan's February unemployment rate at 07:30; China's March official manufacturing PMI at 09:30; UK's Q4 GDP annual rate final value at 14:00; France's March CPI monthly rate preliminary value at 14:45; Germany's March seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate at 15:55; Eurozone's March CPI annual rate preliminary value at 17:00; US' January S&P/CS20 major cities unadjusted house price index annual rate at 21:00; US' March Chicago PMI at 21:45 [1]

股指期货全景日报 2026/3/30 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2606） | 最新 4414.0 | 环比 数据指标 -14.4↓ IF次主力合约（2604） | 最新 4472.4 | 环比 -9.4↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 27, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the profit data of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to February. The profits of national industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated by 14.6 percentage points compared with the whole previous year. The profits of industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and semiconductors soared in the first two months of this year [2]. - The State Council executive meeting emphasized the need to fully tap the development potential of the service industry, promote the specialization of producer services and their extension to the high - end of the value chain, and promote the high - quality, diversified, and convenient development of consumer services [3]. - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues to be intense and stalemated. Iran has stepped up its attacks on the US and Israel, and the frequency and intensity of air - raids on Tehran have increased significantly. The market's inflation expectations have generally risen, and the pricing logic of the bond market is gradually shifting from inflation factors to concerns about economic slowdown [3][4]. - The yields of treasury bond spot bonds generally declined on Monday. Treasury bond futures strengthened across the board. The DR007 weighted average interest rate fell back to around 1.43%. With the support of existing and incremental policies, the production side has significantly accelerated at the beginning of the year, and the profits of most industries have rebounded. The central bank will adhere to a supportive monetary policy stance and continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Trading Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts increased by 0.15%, 0.1%, 0.04%, and 0.38% respectively. The trading volumes of T and TL main contracts increased by 6510 and 6722 respectively, while those of TF and TS main contracts decreased by 533 and 3353 respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most of the spreads showed changes, such as the TL2606 - 2609 spread decreased by 0.03, and the T2606 - 2609 spread increased by 0.01 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all increased. Among the top 20 long and short positions, there were different changes in each contract [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds increased, such as 260007.IB (6y) increased by 0.1233 [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 10y active treasury bonds generally declined, with the 1y yield decreasing by 0.75bp, the 3y yield decreasing by 1.15bp, etc. [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 1.41bp, and the Shibor overnight rate increased by 0.10bp. The silver - pledged 7 - day rate decreased by 1.23bp, and the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 1.00bp, etc. [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 2695 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 80 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Key Events and Data to Watch - March 31, 09:30, China's official manufacturing PMI for March - April 3, 20:30, US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls for March [4]