光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 2026年第一个交易日尿素期货价格偏强震荡，主力05合约收盘价1768元/吨，涨幅1 .43%。现货市场走势偏强，主流地区市场价格上调10~20元/吨不等，山东、河南地 | | | | 区市场价格均为1720元/吨，日环比均上涨10元/吨。近期尿素装置检修与复产并存 | | | | ，尿素供应水平低位波动。昨日行业日产量19.86万吨，日环比提升0.14万吨。需求 | | | 尿素 | 情绪继续回暖，主流地区产销率提升至160%~220%区间，个别地区稍显偏弱。印度 | 偏强 震荡 | | | 本次 标东、西海 价格均较上一 有所提升，提 国内市场情绪。整体来看， | | | | 短期在国内需求承接尚可及印标价格支撑下，尿素市场情绪仍偏强运行，且后续 | | | | 仍预计有出口方面题材发酵。预计尿素期货价格延续偏强震荡趋势，关注现货市 | | | | 场成交氛围、印标最 结果及商品市场整体情绪。 | | | 纯碱 | 2026年第一个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The project initiated by Hubei Lian Investment Group aims to establish the first integrated resource recycling demonstration base for phosphate, coal, and fluorine in China, with a total investment of 30 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The total investment for the project is 30 billion yuan, covering an area of approximately 3,000 acres [1] - The project will focus on the construction of large-scale facilities for wet-process phosphoric acid, purification, and synthetic ammonia [1] - The project is divided into three phases, with the first phase involving an investment of about 12 billion yuan, expected to be completed and put into operation by June 2027 [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - Upon completion, the first phase is projected to achieve an annual output value of 10.8 billion yuan [1] - The project aims to create a multi-element coupling recycling industry model centered around phosphate, coal, and fluorine [1]

中国经济网北京1月6日讯 宝泰隆(601011.SH)近日发布关于控股孙公司重大诉讼事项进展公告。 3、赛鼎工程有限公司于本判决生效之日起三十日内采取有效措施解决浙江省特种设备科学研究院 鉴定意见第十一条鉴定意见确定的设计缺陷问题； 4、赛鼎工程有限公司于本判决生效之日起三十日内向双鸭山龙煤天泰煤化工有限公司支付赔偿金 3,495,000元； 宝泰隆公告称，公司控股孙公司双鸭山龙煤天泰煤化工有限公司（简称"龙煤天泰"）于2025年12月 30日收到中华人民共和国最高人民法院（简称"最高法院"）送达的《民事判决书》（2023）最高法民终 416号。 赛鼎工程有限公司（简称"赛鼎公司")与龙煤天泰公司建设工程施工合同纠纷一案，黑龙江省高级 人民法院于2018年8月8日立案受理。 诉讼过程中，龙煤天泰公司针对赛鼎公司支付合同价款等诉请进行了答辩，提出赛鼎公司未按合同 约定义务向龙煤天泰公司交付合格工厂，其主张全额支付合同价款条件不成就。涉案项目存在严重的设 计缺陷和质量问题，并提出对涉案项目设计缺陷和质量问题作司法鉴定的申请，黑龙江省高级人民法院 依法委托浙江省特种设备科学研究院进行了司法鉴定。2021年12月19 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated explicitly [1] - Styrene: Not rated explicitly [1] - Ethylene: Not rated explicitly [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: Not rated explicitly [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: Not rated explicitly [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not rated explicitly [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: Not rated explicitly [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: Not rated explicitly [1] - Propylene: Not rated explicitly [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows complex and diversified trends, with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationship, geopolitical events, and macro - news [2][3][5] - Each product has its own short - term and long - term price trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to make decisions based on specific product fundamentals [5][6][7] Grouped Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures main contracts fluctuated and consolidated during the day. Multiple device changes had limited impact on overall supply, while demand was weak and market trading was light [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts declined during the day. For polyethylene, the trading atmosphere improved, but the supply - demand imbalance continued. For polypropylene, short - term demand was weak due to tightened funds and slow new orders [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene followed oil prices to fluctuate downward in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. High imports and rising port inventories put pressure on the market. Consider long - term positive spreads in the mid - term [3] - Styrene futures main contract closed down. Downstream procurement was on - demand, and the spot trading atmosphere was poor after the holiday [3] Polyester - PX's weakness drove PTA prices down, and demand decline around the Spring Festival dragged down polyester raw materials. PTA's main driver was raw materials [5] - Ethylene glycol's production increase weakened the production - cut expectation. Although the arrival volume decline eased the inventory pressure, it was still under long - term pressure. Focus on short - term oil price fluctuations [5] - Short fiber enterprises had low inventories, but downstream demand was weak. The long - term supply - demand pattern was good. Bottle chip demand weakened, and it was mainly driven by cost [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol main contract opened high and closed low. Coastal and inland spot trends diverged. High short - term inventory might suppress the market, but the mid - term import reduction was expected to lead to a strong market [6] - Urea prices continued to rise. Supply recovery was less than expected, and short - term supply was tight. The market might weaken later [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC declined slightly. Supply increased, demand was low, and inventory pressure was high. The rebound height was expected to be limited [7] - Caustic soda dropped significantly. The industry was accumulating inventory, and the supply pressure was large. The rebound height was suppressed, and it was expected to find the bottom [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash inventory increased significantly after the holiday, and the futures price dropped. Supply increased, demand decreased, and long - term supply was expected to be in excess [8] - Glass showed a weak and fluctuating trend. Spot prices were low, production and sales were okay, and long - term capacity reduction was expected [8]

Market Overview - In December 2025, methanol futures experienced a fluctuation, initially declining before rebounding as market sentiment improved due to reduced overseas supply and operational changes in Iranian facilities [4][22][26] - The main contract completed a rollover, with near-month contracts showing relative strength while long-term contracts faced downward pressure [4][22] Supply Side - Domestic methanol production remained high, with a total output of 102 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.93 million tons, or 10.81% [8][30] - In December, production reached 9.07 million tons, up 8.16% year-on-year and 5.67% month-on-month [8][30] - The operating rate of domestic methanol facilities was 90.34% as of December 31, 2025, reflecting a 1.34 percentage point increase from the previous month [8][30] - Overseas supply decreased significantly, particularly from Iran, which is the largest exporter and a key supplier to China, with operational rates dropping to 59.96% [9][33] Demand Side - Demand entered a seasonal decline, with downstream purchasing becoming cautious [12][36] - The MTO (Methanol-to-Olefin) operating rate was 87.46%, down 3.37 percentage points from the beginning of the month [12][36] - Some regions, like Shandong, saw increased demand due to the restart of MTO facilities, while others faced declines due to maintenance and operational issues [12][36] Inventory - Port inventory levels approached 150 million tons, with a significant increase in imports, totaling 175.46 million tons in December, a 24.04% increase from the previous month [17][42] - Social inventory reached 1.9 million tons, up 62.43% year-on-year, indicating a buildup in stock due to high production and weak demand [18][43] Cost Side - Coal prices have been declining, leading to a reduction in losses for coal-based methanol production [20][45] - The market is currently experiencing a stabilization phase in coal prices, with expectations of limited downward movement due to demand constraints [20][45] Conclusion - The methanol market is characterized by a tug-of-war between "strong expectations" driven by reduced Iranian supply and "weak realities" of high domestic production and inventory levels [22][47] - The upcoming month will be critical in determining whether the anticipated reduction in imports and the restart of MTO facilities can effectively drive down inventory levels and support prices [22][47]

转自：中国质量报 本报讯 （记者秦海峰）近日，山西省朔州市、陕西省榆林市、内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市三地市场监管 局在朔州市共同签署《跨区域"强企强链强县"建设和标准协作机制战略框架协议》，并召开年度工作交 流会。这标志着三地市场监管领域合作迈入以标准为牵引、以质量为核心、以产业链为纽带的新阶段， 将为区域产业升级与现代产业体系建设注入新动能。 三地市场监管部门代表还围绕质量发展、认证认可、检验检测等工作交流经验，并就推动协议落实展开 讨论。 会后，与会人员前往中煤平朔博物馆、山西晋坤矿产品股份有限公司参观，调研煤化工产业发展与企业 质量创新实践。大家表示，将积极借鉴典型经验，推动质量共治、成果共享。 据介绍，下一步，三地市场监管部门将建立健全常态化协调机制，细化任务清单，推动协议内容落地见 效，努力打造跨区域质量协作典范，为区域经济社会高质量发展贡献更大力量。 【资讯播报】 根据协议，三地市场监管部门将聚焦质量基础设施建设、标准协同创新、能力提升与资源整合等重点方 向深化合作，推动形成优势互补、协同联动的区域质量发展生态。签约仪式上，三地市场监管部门一致 认为，此举是贯彻落实区域协同发展战略、服务构建新发展格局 ...

Core Insights - The Ordos Modern Coal Chemical Innovation Technology Pilot Base, located in the Sulige Economic Development Zone, commenced operations in September 2025, attracting 19 cutting-edge technology projects within a year and successfully launching its first project in just three months [1] Group 1: Infrastructure and Cost Efficiency - The pilot base, with a total investment of 450 million yuan and covering an area of 309 acres, significantly reduces costs for enterprises by providing a centralized facility that mitigates risks associated with traditional pilot plant setups [2][3] - The base features a 20-kilometer material pipeline system that ensures stable supply of eight industrial gases, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs for companies [2] - The facility is equipped with advanced automated testing equipment, which lowers the innovation threshold for small and medium-sized enterprises [3] Group 2: Innovative Mechanisms and Support - The base operates under a "1+1+N" development model, integrating a research center to guide pilot projects and establish a comprehensive management system [4] - It offers a "turnkey" approach for projects, providing technical guidance, funding support, and access to shared laboratory facilities, thereby shortening project implementation timelines to under one month [4] - The base has established a sustainable innovation ecosystem through mechanisms like technology transfer and the recycling of innovation funds [4] Group 3: Regional Collaboration and Market Integration - The pilot base benefits from its location within the core area of the Ordos National Modern Coal Chemical Industry Demonstration Base, surrounded by major companies that provide immediate access to raw materials and market opportunities [5] - It focuses on high-end chemical products, new energy materials, and solid waste resource utilization, aiming to shorten the R&D to production cycle through local validation and near-term conversion [6] - The base is projected to drive over 50 billion yuan in industrial investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, reflecting its potential impact on the coal chemical industry [6]

光期研究 见微知著 煤化工策略月报 202 6 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 目 录 1、期货市场及产业链原料情况 2、尿素：1月供需双增预期，盘面坚挺运行 3、纯碱：基本面和外部因素博弈，期价坚挺运行 4、玻璃：1月供需两端继续博弈，盘面底部震荡 p 2 | 品 | 观 点 总 结 | | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | 1、期货价格：12月尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，趋势先抑制后仰，截至12月31日收盘主力05合约报1749元/吨，月度涨幅0.4%。 | | | 2、现货价格：12月尿素现货价格偏强震荡，截至12月31日，山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1710元/吨、1700元/吨，二者均较11月底上涨40 | | | 元/吨。 | | | 3、供应：12月尿素供应整体低位波动，一方面行业处于气头企业负荷下降周期，另一方面月内检修、故障频率提升。截至12月31日，尿素 | | | 日产量19.48万吨，较11月底的20.34万吨下降4.23%。1月之后气头企业负荷或逐步回升，但需关注环保因 ...

日前，从河南能源集团化工新材料公司(以下简称化工新材料公司)所属的永城园区传来捷报：5万吨/年 合成气生物发酵制无水乙醇项目全流程顺利打通，成功产出优质无水乙醇与生物蛋白。"这一突破性成 果，不仅为化工产业低碳化、绿色化转型发展开辟了新路径，更标志着化工新材料公司在科技创新赋能 产业升级的征程上迈出了里程碑式的一步。"河南能源集团副总经理、化工新材料公司董事长孙广建表 示。 面对全球产业竞争加剧与转型压力，化工新材料公司努力"当好煤基化工和硅碳新材料产业发展领军 者"，以科技创新为核心驱动力，从关键技术突破、深化技改赋能、成果转化落地等多维度发力，促进 了传统优势产业转型升级。 攻坚核心技术 铸就产业"硬支撑" "关键领域的技术创新与应用，是提升产业链韧性的有力抓手。"孙广建说，化工新材料公司聚焦产业链 关键环节技术瓶颈，以河南能源集团"一院四中心"科创体系为支撑，通过"揭榜挂帅"深化产学研合作， 实现多项核心技术突破。 其自主研发的乙二醇高效催化剂已应用于国内9套合成气制乙二醇工业装置，成为国内外唯一能适配5种 乙二醇生产工艺的供应商，产品销量稳居世界前列，不仅为企业内部降低采购成本，更通过外部销售斩 获丰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" emphasizes expanding effective investment, promoting transformation and upgrading, and scientifically regulating major project construction while controlling the total capacity and enhancing quality in the coal chemical industry [1] Group 1: Industry Development - The modern coal chemical industry in China has seen rapid development, achieving significant progress in technological innovation, scale expansion, and layout optimization, forming a robust coal-based energy chemical industry system [2] - Major coal-to-oil and coal-to-natural gas projects led by state-owned enterprises are being launched or planned in resource-rich areas such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi [2] - The first phase of the China Datang Fuxin coal-to-natural gas project has entered full construction, highlighting the importance of ensuring national energy security due to high dependence on foreign oil and gas [2] Group 2: Product Diversification and Upgrading - Companies are focusing on product diversification and high-end development, accelerating the extension and strengthening of the modern coal chemical industry chain, particularly in fine chemicals and new materials [2] - The Xi'an Chemical Company is developing high-end fine chemicals and new materials based on synthetic ammonia and ammonium nitrate, filling local market gaps [3] Group 3: Carbon Emission Reduction - Coal chemical production is a significant source of carbon emissions, with over 70% of synthetic ammonia and methanol production relying on coal [4] - The successful injection of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in a pilot project marks a significant step in large-scale carbon capture applications in the modern coal chemical sector [4] Group 4: Coupling with New Energy - The coupling of coal chemical processes with new energy sources is seen as a critical strategy for achieving low-carbon development [5] - By the end of 2024, domestic green methanol projects are expected to have a total capacity exceeding 750,000 tons, with significant green hydrogen demand [5] - Major projects, such as the world's largest green hydrogen ammonia project and the first fully autonomous carbon hydrogen green methanol project, are being developed to support this transition [5][6] Group 5: Future Trends - The majority of coal chemical product capacities are saturated, indicating limited potential for large-scale development [6] - The integration of coal chemical processes with new energy to create a "green electricity - green hydrogen - coal chemical" industrial chain is becoming a prevailing trend, aiding in carbon reduction while facilitating local consumption of new energy [6]