文 | 赵伟、屠强、李欣越 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 图 32: 上周, 高炉开工率延续回落 全国高炉开工率 (247家) · 2019 =2021 2022 == 2020 2023 -2024 2025 85 80 75 70 65 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 资料来源: Wind、申万宏源研究 图 33: 上周, 钢材周表观消费有所回落 五大品种钢材周表观消费量 -- 2019 =2021 = 2022 2023 = 2025 1300 万吨 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 资料来源:iFind、申万宏源研究 报告正文 2．国内高频：工业生产延续弱势 2.1 生产高频跟踪：工业生产延续弱势，建筑业开工相对稳定 全国商品房成交持续低位，不同能级城市成交仍较弱。 上周（12月07日至12月13日），30大中城市商 品房日均成交面积环比13.8%、同比+10.2pct至-33.4%。分不同能级城市看，一线、二线、三线成交均较弱， 同比 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - After the Central Economic Work Conference, the macro - positive factors faded, and pricing returned to fundamentals. Steel supply is reducing, but the recovery of steel mill profits may slow down the reduction speed. Demand is seasonally weak, and steel exports are expected to tighten. Steel inventories show different trends, with short - term prices fluctuating weakly [3]. - After macro events, trading logic returned to fundamentals. Iron ore supply from major mines is restricted, and steel mills have a need to replenish inventory. Iron ore demand is seasonally declining but is expected to rebound in January. Falling coking coal prices provide support, and the downside price space is limited [21]. - Coking coal supply has limited marginal changes, but due to pressure on steel mill profits and unexpected reduction in hot metal production, coking coal supply exceeds demand. Coke production decreased slightly last week due to environmental restrictions. With the decline in coking coal costs, coke prices are likely to continue to fall [31]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak, but news from the SASAC and the National Development and Reform Commission led to a price rebound today. However, price increases may stimulate enterprises to hedge and suppress prices [47]. - With the strengthening of new production capacity expectations, the expectation of soda ash oversupply is intensifying. The acceleration of glass cold - repair weakens the demand for soda ash. Although exports are high, high inventories restrict prices [65]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold - repair, which may affect long - term pricing. Near - term contracts will follow the delivery logic, and currently, high intermediate inventories and weak end - market demand put pressure on spot prices [88]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3090, 3081, and 3112 yuan/ton respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3254, 3246, and 3255 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The rebar spot prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou were 3295, 3280, 3120, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, and the hot - rolled coil spot prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and Shenyang were 3270, 3260, and 3180 yuan/ton respectively [9][11]. Ratio and Spread Data - The 01, 05, and 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were all 4, and the 01, 05, and 10 rebar/coke ratios were all 2 [18]. - The 01, 05, and 10 roll - to - rebar spreads were 164, 165, and 143 yuan/ton respectively, and the roll - to - rebar spot spreads in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenyang were - 10, 210, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [15]. Iron Ore Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 783.5, 761, and 739.5 yuan/ton respectively. The 01, 05, and 09 basis were 1, 25, and 46.5 yuan/ton respectively [22]. - The prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 779, 856, and 666 yuan/ton respectively [22]. Fundamental Data - The daily average hot metal production was 229.2 tons, 45 - port throughput was 319.19 tons, and the apparent demand for five major steel products was 840 tons [25]. - Global shipments were 3592.5 tons, Australia - Brazil shipments were 2889.3 tons, and 45 - port arrivals were 2723.4 tons [25]. - The 45 - port inventory was 15431.42 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8834.2 tons [25]. Coal and Coke Price Data - The 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 170.5, - 76.5, and - 94 yuan/ton respectively, and those of coke were 234, - 78.5, and - 155.5 yuan/ton respectively [35]. - The spot price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1430 yuan/ton [38]. Ratio and Profit Data - The main mine - to - coke ratio was 0.503, the main rebar - to - coke ratio was 2.034, and the main coke - to - coal ratio was 1.524 [35]. - The on - the - spot coking profit was 21 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian coal import profit (long - term agreement) was 213 yuan/ton [38]. Ferroalloys Price Data - The silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 18 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 154 yuan/ton [48][49]. - The spot prices of silicon - iron in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai were 5250, 5280, and 5200 yuan/ton respectively, and the spot prices of silicon - manganese in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou were 5490, 5540, and 5550 yuan/ton respectively [48][49]. Cost and Inventory Data - The price of semi - coke small materials was 800 yuan/ton, and the price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 737 yuan/ton [48]. - The silicon - iron warehouse receipts were 13068, and the silicon - manganese warehouse receipts were 25032 [48][50]. Soda Ash Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1170, 1221, and 1133 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 51, 88, and - 37 yuan/ton respectively [66]. - The heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and East China were 1300, 1400, and 1250 yuan/ton respectively [66]. Fundamental Data - In October, soda ash exports exceeded 210,000 tons, maintaining a high level [65]. - The upper - and middle - stream inventories were generally high, restricting soda ash prices [65]. Glass Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1038, 1117, and 946 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 79, 171, and - 92 yuan/ton respectively [89]. - The 01 - contract basis in Shahe and Hubei was 64 and 140 yuan/ton respectively [89]. Sales and Production Data - On December 12, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 59, 90, 89, and 102 respectively [90].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The building materials sector is under pressure, but overall profitability is stabilizing. In the first three quarters of 2025, the sector's revenue decreased by 4.39% year-on-year, while gross margin increased by 1.61 percentage points. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.56% year-on-year, with a notable performance in the fiberglass segment due to rising demand for electronic fabrics [5][9][12] Summary by Relevant Sections Overall Industry Performance - The building materials sector experienced a revenue decline of 4.39% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a gross margin increase of 1.61 percentage points and a net profit margin increase of 1.08 percentage points. The net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 20.56% year-on-year [5][9][10] Cement Sector - The cement market faced significant demand decline, with a total production of 1.259 billion tons in the first three quarters of 2025, down 5.2% year-on-year. The revenue for the cement sector decreased by 7.63% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 158.74% year-on-year [25][26] Glass Sector - The float glass segment saw a production decline of 5.2% year-on-year, with revenue down by 9.94%. In contrast, the photovoltaic glass segment experienced a recovery in the second half of the year, with prices increasing significantly in September [9][25] Fiberglass Sector - The fiberglass sector showed a revenue increase of 23.54% year-on-year, driven by demand from AI server upgrades and high-frequency communication technology, leading to price increases in specialized fiberglass products [9][12] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector's revenue decreased by 6.46% year-on-year, but some companies like SanKeShu and TuBaoBao managed to achieve growth through strategic adjustments and product optimization [12][19]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-16 政策扰动不断，盘⾯低位反弹 商务部、海关总署公布钢材出⼝管理新规，钢材出⼝预期转弱，但国 资委强调中央企业⾃觉抵制"内卷式"竞争，盘⾯低开⾼⾛。淡季深 ⼊需求转弱，螺纹钢基本⾯仍有韧性，热卷库存压⼒仍存，基本⾯难 ⾔亮点，预计盘⾯表现承压。冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿下⽅仍有⽀ 撑，下游补库⽀撑煤焦估值有望修复，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上⽅ 空间。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本支撑虽较弱，但焦钢企业将逐渐开启原料 冬储补库，基本面矛盾不大，当前盘面估值过低，继续大幅下行驱动 不足，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关将近，冬储逐步开启，焦煤 现货成交有望改善，基本面及市场情绪将逐渐修复，届时盘面估值或 将向上修复。 3. 合金方面：成本暂居高位对价格形成支撑，但市场供需宽松状态 难改、成本向下传导不畅、盘面上涨驱动不足，预计锰硅期价仍将跟 随板块的表现、以低位震荡运行为主。成本仍处高位支撑硅铁价格底 部，但市场供需双弱、去库难度仍存，需谨慎看待盘面的上方空间， 预计硅铁期价跟随板块低位震荡运行。 4. 玻璃纯碱：供应仍有扰动 ...

【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3074 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 14 元/吨（0.457%）。当日注册仓单 41900 吨, 环比减少 1197 吨。主力合约持仓量为 162.7666 万手，环比增加 20609 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3233 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 1 元/吨（0.030%）。 当日注册仓单 103404 吨, 环比减少 4724 吨。主力合约持仓量为 122.4554 万手，环比增加 34067 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 黑色建材日报 2025-12-16 【策略观点】 昨日商品市场整体情绪偏弱，受出口政策扰动影响，成材价格承压回落。从基本面看，螺纹钢本周产量明 显下降，库存延续去化，供需结构相对平衡，整体表现中性偏稳；热轧卷板产量继续下滑，表观需求小幅 回落，库存去化难度加大，本周厂库已出现阶段性累积。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [3][54]. Core Insights - The central economic meeting has set a positive tone, emphasizing the need to focus on the real estate chain's bottom rebound opportunities. The macroeconomic stance remains growth-oriented, with policies expected to be flexible and proactive, benefiting real estate and infrastructure demand [20][11]. - The construction materials sector has experienced a decline of 2.01% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.9 percentage points. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 11.5%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by approximately 5.0 percentage points [11][10]. - Cement prices have shown a month-on-month increase, while the shipment rate has decreased. As of December 12, the national cement shipment rate was 44%, with a price of 360 RMB per ton, reflecting a slight increase [17][24]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. Expanding into emerging industries such as AI and robotics, recommending companies like Zhizhi New Materials and Quartz Shares [20]. 2. Long-term value recovery in consumer building materials, with recommendations for companies like Sankeshu and Dongfang Yuhong [20]. 3. Capitalizing on potential price elasticity due to supply-demand mismatches in bulk building materials, particularly for high-dividend stocks and companies actively expanding overseas, recommending firms like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [20]. Summary by Sections Weekly Perspective - The report discusses the positive tone set by the central economic meeting and the focus on real estate chain recovery opportunities [20][11]. - It notes a decline in the construction materials sector's performance relative to the CSI 300 index, with specific declines in sub-sectors such as cement and decoration materials [11][10]. High-Frequency Data - Cement prices have increased month-on-month, while shipment rates have decreased. The average price for cement is reported at 360 RMB per ton, with a shipment rate of 44% [17][24]. - The report indicates that the price of float glass has also risen, with an average price of 1,165 RMB per ton and a decrease in inventory levels [30][31]. - The price of fiberglass remains stable, with the average price for non-alkali fiberglass yarn at 3,475 RMB per ton [34]. Cost Side - The report highlights that most raw material prices are at low levels, which is expected to positively impact corporate profitability. Key raw materials such as coal and soda ash have seen significant price declines [48][50].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货玻璃纯碱年报 纯碱产能延续扩张，玻璃有望加速出清 20251215 1 观点及策略 2 行情回顾 3 国外经济 4 国内经济 5 基本面分析 6 技术面分析 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 孙伟涛 0769-222110802 从业资格号：F0276620 交易咨询号：Z0014688 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 玻璃观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 观点及策略 纯碱观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 2026年纯碱市场将延续供需宽松格局，新增产能释放压力与存量产能调整并存。远兴能源二期天然碱项 ...

玻璃纯碱市场 2026 年年报 玻璃纯碱：春寒料峭处 双碳谋新篇 ——2025 年玻璃纯碱市场回顾与 2026 年展望 方正中期期货研究院 能源化工团队 魏朝明 Z0015738 摘要： 2025年浮法玻璃行业产线运行情况相对平稳，年内浮法玻璃日熔量稳定运行在16 万吨下方。截至12月初全国浮法玻璃生产线共计284条，在产216条，日熔量共计 154555吨。尽管玻璃需求和价格走势整体偏弱，年中玻璃价格受季节性因素及利好 消息带动波动显著，为行业带来盈利或者减亏的可能。玻璃产能稳定运行显示当前行 业亏损幅度及亏损周期尚不足以引发更多玻璃产线冷修从而带动行情反转。2026年玻 璃行业或将经历需求倒逼供应减量的市场化出清阶段。2026年度玻璃期现货价格波动 的核心区间为850-1250元/吨。 2025年纯碱供应形势保持平稳，岁末年初有新装置投产，2026年纯碱产能有进一 步增加预期。行业过剩压力增加，亏损程度加深。由于供应增加和需求下滑态势或于 2026年延续，纯碱产业需要积极关注期货及期权工具对管理生产经营风险的重要作用， 积极关注盘面情绪波动给出的套保机会。2026年度纯碱期现货价格波动的核心区间为 100 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The building materials sector is expected to attract attention during the current volatile period, with a focus on high-yield assets and companies such as Rabbit Baby, Shangfeng Cement, and Op Lighting [4][5] - The report highlights the importance of domestic demand chains and anticipates a rebound in the fiberglass and electronic fabric markets in 2026 [3] Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Building Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 354.8 CNY/ton, up by 0.2 CNY/ton week-on-week, but down by 69.2 CNY/ton year-on-year. The average cement inventory ratio is 64.8%, down by 1.6 percentage points week-on-week, and the average daily shipment rate is 43.9%, down by 0.7 percentage points week-on-week [4][18][20] - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1165.1 CNY/ton, up by 1.2 CNY/ton week-on-week, but down by 247.0 CNY/ton year-on-year. The inventory of float glass stands at 5542 million heavy boxes, down by 133 million heavy boxes week-on-week [4][42][45] - **Fiberglass**: The market price for domestic alkali-free roving remains stable, with mainstream transaction prices around 3250-3700 CNY/ton. The effective production capacity for fiberglass is expected to reach 759.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [4][8] 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the cement industry is undergoing supply-side adjustments, with a focus on eliminating outdated capacity. The expected net capacity reduction is 40.49 million tons, equivalent to 6.8% of the national clinker design capacity by the end of 2024 [4][8] - The glass industry is experiencing an increase in the loss rate, prompting the closure of older production lines. The report anticipates a rebound in glass prices in the first half of 2026 due to supply contraction [4][8] 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The building materials sector saw a decline of 1.41% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.08% [4] - The report emphasizes the need for strategic attention on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, particularly in the context of ongoing economic adjustments and international trade dynamics [4][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is prominent. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. With the approaching of winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [2]. - The supply of iron ore has slightly increased, while the demand has decreased, and the inventory has continued to rise. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 yuan/ton for the weighted contract [5]. - The market is relatively optimistic about the black sector and domestic policies. It is recommended to pay attention to whether there are any unexpected situations, as well as the inflection points of sentiment and prices [9]. - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced. The future market trends of these two products will be mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost increases [10]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak in the short term, and it may rebound if the sentiment of "anti-involution" related commodities improves. Attention should be paid to new supply-side disturbances in the northwest [14]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to be affected by the "anti-involution" policy and the weak supply and demand situation. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 60,000 yuan for the futures contract [16]. - The float glass market is in a state of weak supply-demand balance and is expected to continue to show a narrow-range fluctuation trend in the short term [19]. - The price of soda ash is expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of enterprise maintenance schedules and inventory changes on the market [21]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (-0.29%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 43,097 tons, a net increase of 2,418 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.607057 million lots, a net increase of 4,982 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 108,128 tons, a net decrease of 886 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.190487 million lots, a net increase of 42,139 lots. The spot price in Lecong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - The production of rebar decreased significantly this week, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral to stable overall performance. The production of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory also increased this week [2]. - The central economic work conference proposed to focus on stabilizing the real estate market, which will provide some support for steel demand, but the steel consumption related to real estate will remain weak [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 760.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46% (+3.50). The position decreased by 2,568 lots to 465,500 lots. The weighted position was 882,300 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 70.00 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.43% [4]. Strategy Views - The overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The shipments from Australia increased, while those from Brazil decreased. The shipments from non-mainstream countries reached a new high for the year, and the near-term arrivals decreased [5]. - The daily average pig iron output decreased to below 2.3 million tons. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On December 12, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.32% at 5,730 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 160 yuan/ton [8]. - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 0.96% at 5,470 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 130 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most of these factors have been reflected in the price. The supply and demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced [10]. - The future market trends of these two products will be mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost increases, especially the potential impact of sudden changes in the manganese ore market [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2605) was 8,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94% (+160). The weighted contract position decreased by 35,281 lots to 459,941 lots. The spot price of 553 non-oxygenated silicon in East China remained unchanged at 9,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 810 yuan/ton [12]. - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2605) was 57,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.56% (+1,425). The weighted contract position increased by 4,484 lots to 269,692 lots. The average spot prices of N-type granular silicon, dense material, and reclaimed material remained unchanged, with a basis of -4,890 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - The production of industrial silicon has reached a bottleneck in decline, and the demand has weakened. The price is expected to be weak in the short term and may rebound if the sentiment of related commodities improves [14]. - The production of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 60,000 yuan for the futures contract [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 2.03% (-20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%) week-on-week. The top 20 long and short positions decreased by 68,030 and 67,811 lots respectively [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1,094 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 2.76% (-31). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 443,000 tons (-2.04%) week-on-week. The top 20 long and short positions decreased by 54,680 and 61,494 lots respectively [20]. Strategy Views - The supply of glass decreased due to cold repairs, and the market sales were supported to some extent. However, due to high inventory and weak terminal demand, the upward space was limited. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [19]. - The supply of soda ash increased due to the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and new capacity releases. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term [21].