Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical futures market shows a mixed performance, with different products having different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. The overall market is affected by factors such as production capacity changes, demand fluctuations, and macro - economic conditions [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures contracts opened high and closed low. Propylene demand improved as prices hit a low, but supply increased. Some companies raised prices due to better sales [2] - Polyolefin futures contracts declined. Polyethylene demand increased with higher downstream开工率, and supply decreased due to many domestic maintenance. Polypropylene supply may decrease slightly, but downstream procurement was restricted by low profits [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene dropped. Although new production was added,开工率 decreased slightly. The domestic pure benzene market may improve in Q3, but high import expectations dampened sentiment [3] - Styrene futures fluctuated slightly. There were unplanned supply reductions, but demand entered a dull period. Northern companies may have price promotions before the National Day [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices weakened. PTA price was driven by raw materials. Terminal demand improved, but filament inventory was high and profit was poor [5] - Ethylene glycol returned to the bottom of the range. Domestic production decreased slightly, and port inventory was low [5] - Short - fiber prices fell. New capacity was limited this year, and demand in the peak season was expected to boost the industry. Bottle - chip basis and processing margin rebounded, but over - capacity was a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol contracts declined. Import arrivals decreased, and short - term supply - demand gap was expected to narrow. High inventory persisted, and long - term attention was on overseas gas restrictions [6] - Urea prices weakened. Supply was sufficient, and industrial demand improved. Agricultural demand had a phased replenishment expectation. Domestic urea remained in a loose supply - demand situation [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was weak. Supply pressure was high, and cost support was not obvious. Attention was on pre - holiday restocking demand [7] - Caustic soda showed regional differences. Overall inventory was small, and prices were expected to fluctuate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices dropped. Production remained high, and heavy - soda demand increased slightly but slowed recently. It was expected to follow macro - sentiment in the short - term and face over - supply in the long - term [8] - Glass prices fell. Inventory decreased, capacity increased slightly, and processing orders improved. It was expected to follow macro - sentiment at a low - valuation level [8]

Core Viewpoint - The glass market is experiencing regional differentiation, with varying demand and pricing across different areas, leading to a mixed outlook for the industry [5][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 18, 2025, the main contract for FG.CZC glass futures had a trading volume of 1,736,649 lots and an open interest of 1,304,305 lots, indicating active market trading but insufficient bullish sentiment, resulting in a price decline [3]. - The overall glass production and sales maintained above 100, with Shihezi at 113 and Hubei at 127, while East and South China were at 108 and 103 respectively, highlighting significant regional demand differences [5]. Group 2: Supply and Production - As of September 11, 2025, the weekly glass production was 112.12 million tons, a slight increase of 0.38% from the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 76.01%, up by 0.09 percentage points [6]. - The total inventory of flat glass in sample enterprises was 61.58 million heavy boxes, down 2.33% from the previous week and down 14.94% year-on-year, with an inventory turnover period of 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.6 days [8]. Group 3: Demand and Orders - The demand for float glass showed some improvement, but the supply side remains relatively loose, leading to a cautious market outlook, with the peak season demand yet to be fully realized [7]. - As of September 15, 2025, the average order days for deep processing sample enterprises was 10.5 days, an increase of 1.0% from the previous week and 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a slight uptick in order activity [15]. Group 4: Regional Inventory Trends - By September 18, 2025, the total inventory of flat glass in sample enterprises reached a new low of 60.908 million heavy boxes, down 1.1% from the previous period, with regional variations in inventory levels [11]. - The North China region saw a mixed inventory trend, with initial weak demand followed by a recovery as market sentiment improved, while other regions experienced varying degrees of inventory reduction [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "shock - biased upward" [6]. - Specific varieties' ratings: - Steel: "Shock" [8] - Iron ore: "Shock" [8][9] - Scrap steel: "Shock" [10] - Coke: "Shock" [10][11][12] - Coking coal: "Shock - biased upward" [11][12] - Glass: "Shock" [14] - Soda ash: "Shock" [15][16] - Manganese silicon: "Shock" [17] - Ferrosilicon: "Shock" [18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of the US interest rate cut has consolidated the support for the black building materials sector. Although the impact of production restrictions in Tangshan and Inner Mongolia on the supply - demand structure of black building materials has not been reflected, the positive effects of the US interest rate cut are still present. The black building materials sector is expected to maintain a shock - upward rhythm. The replenishment logic before the end of the month strongly supports the furnace charge end, which in turn supports steel prices. Despite internal differentiation, the overall support for the sector remains strong [2][6]. - In the iron element aspect, the fundamentals of iron ore are relatively healthy, but the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification, which limits the upside space of iron ore. Scrap steel follows the finished products and is expected to maintain a shock trend. - In the carbon element aspect, coking enterprises have started to replenish raw materials, and the cost support is strong. The price of carbon elements is expected to remain in a shock state in the short term. - For alloys, although the peak - season expectations support the prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon in the short term, the supply - demand situation is expected to be pessimistic in the long - term, and there is downward pressure on prices. - For glass, the current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. There may be a shock after the mid - stream destocking. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed. For soda ash, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the price is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term and a downward trend in the long - term. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - Core logic: The spot market trading volume of steel is generally weak, with better trading at low prices. The profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are shrinking, and steel mills have limited willingness to increase production. The peak - season demand recovery is less than expected, and the inventory pressure still exists. - Outlook: The steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradictions are accumulating. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. Although the macro - environment is warm, the rebar is expected to perform worse than hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: The overseas mine shipments have returned to normal, the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased, and the overall supply is stable. The demand is supported in the short - term, and the overall inventory level is neutral. - Outlook: The demand for iron ore has recovered to a high level, and there is an expectation of pre - festival replenishment. However, the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification, so the price is expected to be in a shock state in the short - term [8][9]. 3.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel has decreased slightly, the demand has increased slightly, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent, and the price is expected to follow the finished products in the short - term [10]. 3.4 Coke - Core logic: The second - round price cut has been implemented, and the profits of coking enterprises are under pressure, but the production enthusiasm is still okay. The demand is strongly supported by rigid demand, and the overall inventory of steel mills is at a good level. - Outlook: Coking enterprises have started to replenish raw materials before the National Day, and the cost support is strong. Considering the possible production restrictions in Tangshan and the warm macro - environment, the price is expected to remain in a shock state in the short - term [11][12]. 3.5 Coking Coal - Core logic: The production of coal mines has basically recovered, and the import is normal. The demand for coking coal has increased, and the inventory pressure is not prominent. - Outlook: Although the production verification of coal is strict, the supply change is limited. With the pre - festival replenishment and good macro - sentiment, the price is expected to be shock - biased upward in the short - term [11][12][14]. 3.6 Glass - Core logic: The demand is weak in the off - season, but there is an upward trend in deep - processing orders. The supply uncertainty increases. The fundamental is still weak, and the spot price is easy to rise but hard to fall. - Outlook: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. There may be a shock after the mid - stream destocking. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline [14]. 3.7 Soda Ash - Core logic: The supply capacity has not been cleared, and the long - term suppression still exists. The demand for heavy soda ash is stable with a slight increase, and the demand for light soda ash is flat. The mid - stream inventory has accumulated. - Outlook: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. After the decline of the futures price, the spot - futures trading volume has increased slightly. The price is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term and a downward trend in the long - term [16]. 3.8 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The peak - season expectation still exists, and the futures price has strengthened. The supply pressure is increasing, and the market is waiting for the steel procurement pricing. - Outlook: The peak - season expectation supports the futures price, but the supply - demand situation is expected to be pessimistic in the long - term, and the price center may decline [17]. 3.9 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The downstream demand expectation is warm during the peak - season, and the futures price is strong. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand for ferrosilicon is relatively stable. - Outlook: The downward space of the ferrosilicon futures price is limited in the short - term, but the supply - demand relationship will be looser in the long - term, and there is downward pressure on the price [18].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of production restrictions in Tangshan and Inner Mongolia on the black metal sector has not yet manifested, while the favorable conditions from the US interest rate cut are maintaining high prices in the sector [1] Group 1: Black Metal Sector - Current production restrictions in Tangshan and Inner Mongolia have not yet affected the supply-demand structure of black metal products [1] - The US interest rate cut, being the first of the year, aligns with expectations and sets a positive tone for upcoming domestic meetings, suggesting a potential upward trend in the black construction materials sector [1] - Iron ore fundamentals remain healthy, with production recovering and low inventory levels, although demand for rebar during peak season is yet to be validated, limiting the upward price potential for iron ore [1] Group 2: Steel and Raw Materials - The scrap steel market shows no significant contradictions in fundamentals and is expected to follow the trends of finished products, indicating short-term price fluctuations [1] - Coking coal prices are stabilizing due to cost support, with potential production restrictions in Tangshan's coking steel enterprises, leading to expected short-term price fluctuations [1] - The coal production review is becoming stricter, but supply changes are limited, with downstream restocking beginning and a positive macro sentiment, suggesting a strong short-term price outlook [1] Group 3: Alloy and Glass Markets - The manganese-silicon market is supported by peak season expectations, but long-term supply-demand outlook appears pessimistic, indicating potential downward pressure on prices [1] - The silicon iron market has limited downward space, but the supply-demand balance is expected to loosen in the long term, leading to price pressures [1] - The glass market is experiencing weak demand, but seasonal and policy expectations may lead to fluctuations, with a need for market-driven capacity reduction in the long term [1] Group 4: Overall Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is influenced by "anti-involution" dynamics, with the US interest rate cut fostering positive expectations for domestic meetings, supporting sector prices [1] - Inventory replenishment before the end of the month is expected to support raw material prices, with cost support for steel prices, indicating a strong overall market despite sector differentiation [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The economic data in August slowed down and were lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume decreased slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively firm, and the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils have diverged. Steel mills' profits are gradually narrowing, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material prices are relatively firm, and continuous attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by domestic and overseas macro - policies [3]. - The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to the same - period high, the proximal arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the short - term demand support still exists. The steel mill profitability rate continues to decline, and the port and steel mill inventories have both increased slightly. The terminal data shows that the apparent demand for the five major steel products has increased to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The rebar data is weak, and the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar has been strong recently. Attention should be paid to whether the internal contradictions of finished products will be transmitted to the raw material end [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the prices of their main contracts fluctuated higher on September 17. From a disk perspective, they are in a range - bound pattern. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high - level supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon has no obvious contradictions and drivers in its supply - demand fundamentals. Both are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, and their operational cost - effectiveness is relatively low [8][9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and strengthened. The fundamentals of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not changed fundamentally. The short - term valuation is neutral. If the market continues to discuss topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further under the expected drive; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. Before the actual progress of capacity integration, the disk price is prone to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of sentiment [13][14][16]. - For glass, the industry supply has increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The pre - holiday stocking has promoted inventory reduction, but the market supply is still abundant, and the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. For soda ash, the industry supply has contracted slightly, mainly due to the maintenance of production lines. Some downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, but most are still purchasing based on rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [18][19]. - Although the black - sector prices still have the risk of short - term phased decline under the influence of real - demand, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, and the opening of China's policy space after the US enters the interest - rate cut cycle, the black - sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation in the future, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6300 tons, and the position increased by 7123 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3390 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the position increased by 523 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.12% (+ 1.00), and the position increased by 2092 lots to 53.45 million lots. The weighted position was 84.05 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.10% [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 17, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) rose 0.77% to close at 5990 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF511) rose 1.16% to close at 5766 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) was 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+ 50). The weighted contract position decreased by 2096 lots to 510223 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis was 135 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 165 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) was 53490 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 4424 lots to 289544 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.05 yuan/kg, and 52.55 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 940 yuan/ton [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1234 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 3). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1130 yuan respectively. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million cases (- 2.33%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12356 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 26149 lots [18]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 0.37% (- 5). The price in Shahe was 1239 yuan, down 5 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 2.46 million tons (- 2.33%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 3.74 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 1.28 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased their positions by 7884 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 13693 lots [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market shows an upward trend due to anti - deflation and anti - involution expectations. The key to disproving the bullish logic lies in the delivery, with the next delivery pressure possibly in the 11 - contract. The time window from late September to the end of October is difficult to disprove the bullish view [4][140]. - From 2022 - 2024, real estate and glass spot markets showed quarterly improvements in the fourth quarter. However, the glass spot price has rarely increased by over 20% during these periods. Exceeding expectations in anti - involution measures is needed to address the current weak basis [4][140]. - From 2025 - 2026, the glass industry will trend towards energy cleaning and electrification, as indicated by policies from the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and local environmental protection departments [13][140]. - The soda ash industry has a more severe supply surplus than the glass industry. Its future trend is expected to be similar to that of glass, but it may be weaker during the upward phase and stronger during the downward phase [5][140]. - Currently, bonds and stocks are trading based on the anti - deflation logic. The weak reality of glass and soda ash has to yield to the capital logic. The market will return to the weak - reality delivery logic during the policy - free period in the late fourth quarter [7][140]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Glass Market Outlook - The glass market is expected to be volatile and bullish until facing delivery pressure again. The rise is driven by expectations, while the fall is due to delivery [4]. Bullish and Bearish Logics - **Bearish**: Terminal demand has not improved, real estate transactions are weak, futures are at a significant premium (01 contract is about 200 higher than the spot), and the anti - involution policy for glass is not clear, so significant production cuts may not occur [4]. - **Bullish**: The delivery pressure of the 09 contract has ended, the anti - involution policy may exceed expectations and cannot be disproven in the short term, and real estate and glass spot markets usually improve quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter [4]. Points to Note - Before the National Day, there may be a squeeze on virtual positions. The next delivery pressure is expected in the 11 - contract, and the time window from late September to early November is more favorable for bulls [7]. - Inventory in Shahe has decreased by 50% year - on - year, in Hubei by 16.5%, and nationally by 15%. After the end of August, national inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month. In the past three years, the glass industry has mainly reduced inventory in the fourth quarter, limiting the downside of spot prices [7]. - The limit of the forward premium due to warehouse receipt pressure in the past three years is about 200 yuan/ton, and the current spread between the 01 and 11 contracts is 110 yuan/ton [7]. - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may be a market speculation point, but its real impact is limited [7]. Supply - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 11,680 tons/day, newly ignited production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 13,210 tons/day, potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,790 tons/day, potential old - line复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 9,930 tons, and potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [51][52][53]. - Current in - production capacity is about 160,000 tons/day, with a peak of 178,000 tons/day in 2021. The net capacity in 2024 decreased by 17,000 tons compared to the beginning - of - year high, but there has been no significant contraction in 2025 [57][58][61]. - The most likely devices to stop production are those ignited before 2017, accounting for 22.5% of the total capacity. Most domestic devices were cold - repaired between 2017 - 2021, accounting for nearly 44% [61]. Price and Profit - Shahe prices are around 1,120 - 1,160 yuan/ton, Hubei prices are around 1,040 - 1,120 yuan/ton, and prices in East China are around 1,220 - 1,320 yuan/ton. Recent spot prices have changed little, with a weakening basis and month - spread [71][72]. - Profits are about 30 yuan/ton for petroleum - coke - fueled devices, - 174 yuan/ton for natural - gas - fueled devices, and 100 yuan/ton for coal - fueled devices [75][79]. Inventory and Spread - Recent transactions have improved slightly, and inventory has declined. Most regions have seen a slowdown in inventory accumulation. Downstream restocking is mainly due to low prices, and terminal demand has not expanded significantly [82][84]. - Comparing the market in the past three years, there has been a high probability of quarter - on - quarter improvement, but the spot price rarely increases by over 20%. The glass industry needs to improve both supply and demand to change the long - term negative feedback [87][88]. - Regional arbitrage shows that prices in different regions are stable, and low - price regions have slightly better transactions than high - price regions [90]. Photovoltaic Glass - The domestic photovoltaic glass market has good overall transactions, with prices fluctuating upward. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is about 13 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is about 20 yuan/square meter [98][100]. - Production capacity has changed little recently, trading has improved, and inventory has declined. The number of in - production production lines is 408, with a total daily melting capacity of 89,290 tons/day, a year - on - year decrease of 15.34%. The sample inventory days are about 16.13 days, a 12.13% decrease month - on - month [102][104][109]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Maintenance devices are gradually resuming production, and the operating rate has increased slightly. The capacity utilization rate is 87.3% (86.2% last week), and the current weekly output of heavy soda ash is 422,000 tons/week [113][115]. - Inventory is about 1.8 million tons, with 76,000 tons of light soda ash and 1.04 million tons of heavy soda ash [120][121]. Price and Profit - Futures have rebounded, and spot traders' quotes have increased slightly, while manufacturers' quotes have changed little. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1,210 - 1,400 yuan/ton [129][130]. - The profit of the combined - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 54.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 36.3 yuan/ton [136]. Market Scenario - The soda ash market is moving towards a weaker situation. Under different demand assumptions (weak, neutral, and optimistic), there are different supply - demand gaps [137].

房地产依旧表现低迷，下游深加工订单小幅抬升，采购以刚需为主，整体库存虽然重新累库，后续市场将 会围绕需求端进行波动，整体去库存趋势依旧不变，联储即将开启议息会议，国内维持汇率升值压力，后 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-09-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1334 | -5 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1234 | -3 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 100 | -2 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1339542 | 913 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1304305 | 24237 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -247815 | -13809 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -173987 | -13710 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 5672 | -578 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 1040 | -565 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -124 | -11 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating upward", with individual variety ratings as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [7] - Iron ore: Oscillating [8] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [9] - Coke: Oscillating [11] - Coking coal: Oscillating upward [12] - Glass: Oscillating [13] - Soda ash: Oscillating [16] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [17] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [18] Core View of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has strengthened again, providing an upward driver for the sector. Combined with the replenishment logic, strong macro - expectations, and the approach of the National Day with enterprises starting pre - holiday stockpiling, it is expected that the sector will oscillate upward before the holiday. However, attention should be paid to the dynamics of China - US talks and the possible negative impact of overseas countries imposing additional tariffs on China [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - Policy - level mention of "anti - involution", along with production restrictions in Tangshan's coking and steel enterprises and coal over - production inspections in Inner Mongolia, has boosted market sentiment. Steel, coking coal, glass, and soda ash have shown strong performance, while iron ore has been relatively weak. In the later stage, although the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate, it is expected to push up the sector's prices further considering the macro - level benefits during the peak season and the industry's replenishment [2]. Situation of Each Variety Iron Element - Iron ore: The fundamentals are healthy. The environmental protection - related production restrictions in Tangshan may have a limited impact on the overall demand, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. Port trading volume increased, overseas mine shipments returned to normal, 45 - port arrivals decreased, demand was supported in the short term, and the overall inventory level was neutral [2][8]. - Scrap steel: The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the trend of finished products. The short - term price is expected to oscillate. The supply decreased, demand increased slightly, and the factory inventory decreased slightly [2][9]. Carbon Element - Coke: The second - round price cut has been implemented. The futures market is strong, and the spot market sentiment has improved. The supply is basically stable, and the demand is strongly supported. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - Coking coal: The supply is temporarily stable, and the demand for pre - holiday replenishment from downstream coking enterprises has been released. The price is expected to oscillate upward in the short term due to the strong "anti - involution" atmosphere, limited coal production growth, and macro - policy benefits [12]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term cost and peak - season expectations support the price, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is expected to move downward [3][17]. - Ferrosilicon: The short - term cost supports the price, and the decline space during the peak season is limited. However, the medium - and long - term supply - demand relationship will loosen, and the price center will move downward [3][18]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if it returns to fundamental trading, the price is expected to decline [3][6][13]. - Soda ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures market, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the long - term price center will move downward to promote capacity reduction [6][16]. Steel - The spot market trading volume is average, and the inventory is accumulating, but the rate has slowed down. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is cautious about the peak - season demand. Although the cost support has weakened, the "anti - involution" sentiment and the warming macro - environment still support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [7]. Indexes - On September 16, 2025, the comprehensive index, special indexes (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, PPI commodity index), and the steel industry chain index all showed an upward trend [105][106].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market may pre - price the Fed's probability of restarting interest rate cuts during the September interest rate meeting this week [2]. - The technology sector in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors [2]. - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying [2]. - The Fed's decision may intensify market divergence and increase short - term volatility [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index is weakly volatile [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, driving up steel prices [2]. - Iron ore prices are supported by factors such as resumed shipments, increased hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - The prices of some energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand patterns, production maintenance, and inventory changes [2]. - The prices of some agricultural products are influenced by factors like supply, demand, and market sentiment [2]. - Some special and new - energy commodities are affected by factors such as cost, macro - environment, and industry meetings [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The technology mainline in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors. If volatility continues to decline, a double - buying strategy for options can be attempted [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying. A unilateral strategy suggests investors wait and see, and pay short - term attention to changes in the capital market, the equity market, and fundamentals [2]. Precious Metals - Before the Fed's decision, the expectation of easing has been rising, and the US dollar index has fallen to the lowest point of the year. For gold, it is recommended to wait and see and then buy on dips after the decision. An option double - buying strategy at the strike price of 840 can be tried. Silver has high elasticity above $42, but volatility may rise and then fall after the decision. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on rallies [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main contract is weakly volatile, and a spread arbitrage between December and October can be considered [2]. Steel and Related Products - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. It is recommended to go long on steel in the short term. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and short hot - rolled coils. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and short coke. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and short coke [2]. Energy and Chemical Products - For crude oil, it is recommended to mainly wait and see unilaterally. For urea, wait and see unilaterally, with a short - term support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton. For PX, it is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in the short term. For PTA, it is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term and conduct a rolling reverse spread between TA1 and TA5. For short - fiber, it has no obvious short - term driver and follows raw materials. For bottle - grade polyester chips, its demand may decline in September, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton. For ethylene glycol, wait and see unilaterally and conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread. For caustic soda, wait and see. For PVC, wait and see. For pure benzene, it follows styrene and oil prices in the short term. For styrene, conduct a rolling low - buying strategy and pay attention to the pressure around 7200, and widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level. For synthetic rubber, its price is expected to fluctuate between 11400 - 12500. For LLDPE, it will oscillate between 7150 - 7450 in the short term. For PP, it is slightly bullish. For methanol, conduct range - bound operations between 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and related products, operate the 01 contract in the range of 3000 - 3100. For live pigs, the market is in a weakly volatile pattern. For corn, be cautious about short - selling. For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, observe whether the main contract of palm oil can stabilize above 9500. For sugar, pay attention to the pressure level around 5700 - 5750. For cotton, wait and see unilaterally. For eggs, reduce previous short positions and control positions. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, pay attention to the support at 10700. For soda ash, wait and see [2]. Special and New - Energy Commodities - For glass, wait and see and pay attention to the sentiment of the spot market during the peak season. For rubber, it is in a high - level oscillation due to positive macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon, it is strongly volatile, with the main price fluctuation range expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the price trend of finished products shows a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. The economic data in August slowed down overall and was lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume declined slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong, and their trends have diverged. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar is still weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. In the long - term, although the black sector prices may have a short - term correction risk due to real - demand factors, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary double - easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [3][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3166 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.956%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 269,959 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,941 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.956248 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 21,822 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3230 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton. The rebar apparent demand continued to be sluggish, with weak demand in the traditional peak season and increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3402 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (0.949%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 58,841 tons, with no month - on - month change. The position of the main contract was 1.390939 million lots, a month - on - month increase of 42,984 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3420 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The output of hot - rolled coils increased, the apparent demand was relatively good, the overall demand was neutral, and the inventory decreased slightly [2]. Iron Ore - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) was 803.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.94% (+7.50), and the position changed by - 3458 lots to 532,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 845,800 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.25 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.22%. The overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded to a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia increased month - on - month, and the shipments from Brazil rebounded significantly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries also increased. The recent arrival volume decreased slightly. The daily average pig iron output in the latest period was 240,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,710 tons. The inventory in ports and steel mills' imported ore increased slightly. In general, the iron ore price will fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 16, the price of coking coal rose significantly during the day, driving the alloy price stronger. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose in the morning and then gradually declined, closing up 0.647% at 5944 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton, with a premium of 66 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the manganese silicon futures price maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see [8][9]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) opened higher and then gradually declined, closing flat at 5700 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the ferrosilicon futures price also maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the black - sector market, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2511) was 8915 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.31% (+115). The weighted contract position increased by 4487 lots to 512,319 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - containing 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 185 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 yuan/ton. The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The fundamentals are weak, but if the market continues to discuss relevant topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2511) was 53,670 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.23% (+125). The weighted contract position decreased by 6229 lots to 293,968 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 49.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 1170 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price is more policy - driven, and the market focus is on capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. The price is volatile, and attention should be paid to position and risk control [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract of glass closed at 1237 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.49% (+30). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1110 yuan, also unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 61.583 million cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.467 million cases (-2.33%). The industry supply increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1339 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.37% (+31). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1244 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.7975 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,600 tons (-2.33%), of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0345 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37,400 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 763,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons. The industry supply decreased slightly due to the maintenance of production lines in Hubei Xindu and Haijing Yuehe. The market trading atmosphere was tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [19].