能源化工期权 2025-12-08 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：PTA的世界） 聚酯行业周度报告 2025年11月28日-12月4日聚酯行业周度报告 报告日期：2025年12月4日 核心逻辑：本周聚酯产业链呈现"原料端偏强、下游需求疲软"的分化格局，PX、PTA因供应偏紧价格上 行，而涤纶长丝等终端产品受订单不足拖累价格走弱；产业链利润整体向原料端转移，多数聚酯成品仍 处于亏损状态；终端织造开工率下滑，成品库存累积，行业整体供需矛盾有所加剧。 一、产业链价格走势 （一）上游原料价格 1.原油：国际油价涨跌互现，布伦特原油本期均价62.97美元/桶，较上期微跌0.01美元/桶，跌幅0.02%； WTI原油期货均价58.87美元/桶，环比上涨0.34美元/桶，涨幅0.58%，主要受俄乌局势及供应过剩担忧 博弈影响。 2.PX：供应偏紧推动价格走强，CFR中国PX本期均价842.07美元/吨，环比上涨14.70美元/吨，涨幅 1.78%，国内工厂歧化降负荷加剧市场看涨情绪，PX-N价差升至275.22元/吨，环比上涨4.19%。 3.PTA：成本支撑叠加供需紧平衡，华东PTA现货周均价4690元/吨，环比上涨65元/吨，涨幅1.41%；本 周国内PTA产 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价震荡反弹，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.72 美元至 59.67 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.22%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.59 美元至 63.26 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 0.94%。SC2601 以 456.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 5.2 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 1.15%。由于严重风暴和近期的无人机袭击扰乱了装载 | | | | 作业，俄罗斯黑海港口 Novorossiysk 港和里海管道联盟 CPC 终端 | | | | 11 月的石油出口量较原计划减少约 100 万吨。行业人士称， | | | | Novorossiysk 港 11 月乌拉尔原油、西伯利亚轻质原油和 KEBCO | | | | 原油的装船计划量约为 320 万吨，但实际出口仅达到约 250 万吨。 | | | 原油 | 市场调查结果显示，尽管 OPEC 同意提高 11 月份的原油产量， | 震荡 | | | 但由 ...

据了解，CARBIOS是法国最具创新力的材料科技企业之一，其开发的生物酶法PET解聚技术被认为是"塑料循环领域的革命性突破"，被 纳入"France2030"法国2030国家战略重点项目，获得法国政府及全球消费品行业的高度关注。 12月3日，万凯新材（301216）与法国生物科技先锋CARBIOS在浙江海宁正式签署合作协议，宣布共同建设全球首台套、年产5万吨的生 物酶解聚PET再生工业化装置，该项目暂定总投资1.15亿欧元(约9.22亿元)。万凯新材表示，该合作标志着生物酶法PET解聚技术首次在亚 洲规模化落地。 签约仪式上，海宁市委、市政府主要领导、法国CARBIOS全球管理团队、万凯新材高管，以及马石油、米其林、诺和新元、H&M、农夫 山泉、吉利集团、Tims咖啡等多家国际品牌方、投资机构、行业协会共同出席。 生物酶法技术走向工业化 公告显示，为推动消费后PET再生循环产业化落地，确立在再生PET领域的竞争领先地位，万凯新材与Carbios S.A.签署了《股东协议》， 双方将在中国成立一家合资公司，其中万凯新材占比70%。双方将通过合资公司合作建设首座年处理5万吨废料的生物酶解聚PET再生项 目以及运营 ...

| 原油产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | | 2025年12月5日 | | | | | | | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 12月4日 | | 12月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent 63.26 | | 62.67 | 0.59 | 0.94% | | | WTI 59.67 | | 58.95 | 0.72 | 1.22% | 美元/桶 | | SC 451.30 | | 449.30 | 2.00 | 0.45% | 元/神 | | Brent M1-M3 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.04 | 6.56% | | | WTI M1-M3 | 0.61 | 0.50 | 0.11 | 22.00% | 美元/桶 | | SC M1-M3 | -1.50 | -1.30 | -0.20 | 15.38% | 元/神 | | Brent-WTI | 3.59 | 3.72 ...

聚酯产业链展望：成本弱供需强，产业链价格保持强势 20251204 摘要 聚酯产业链需求保持良好，但 PTA 因装置检修供应下降，乙二醇港口库 存持续上升，价格走势疲软，跌幅超过原油，与 PS 和 PT 价格在原油下 跌时上涨形成对比。 OPEC 暂停部分原油生产，缓解供应过剩预期，但 EIA 预测全球原油仍 将过剩。美国原油产量创新高，汽油库存回升，价格创近年新低。预计 12 月至明年 1 月原油需求将好转，但供应过剩和地缘政治风险限制价格 反弹空间。 PS 产量同比下降，消费量增加，供不应求，加工费升至年内高位，价格 持续上涨，受益于聚酯产业链需求。若原油价格反弹，PS 价格可能走强， 但需求回落则可能导致价格下跌。 2025 年 PTA 新增产能较大，但 2026 年无新增产能，供应压力较小。 PTA 库存持续回落，加工费虽低但有所回升，需关注装置重启情况和开 工率变动。 Q&A 今年以来原油及其相关产业链的价格表现如何？ 2025 年全年，原油价格整体表现偏弱，累计跌幅接近 20%。然而，在整个产 业链中，PS 和 PT 的价格表现明显偏强。尽管有涨有跌，但整体跌幅并不大。 相比之下，乙二醇（EG）的 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (interpreted as a relatively clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Various chemical products in the industry are facing different market situations, with a mix of supply - demand imbalances, cost - driven factors, and inventory pressures. Some products are expected to have short - term fluctuations, while others have long - term supply - demand trends that need attention [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Two - olefin futures contracts declined. Supply device restart expectations increased market caution. Propylene inventory was low, but real - deal premiums narrowed. PE faced fundamental pressure, and PP's supply support weakened due to restarting devices [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene was in a narrow - range shock, with high arrival expectations and falling downstream demand. However, future device maintenance may ease the downward pressure. Styrene's supply - demand structure improved, and it is expected to be stable to slightly strong in the short term [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices weakened slightly. PX may be strong in the medium term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover. Ethylene glycol has supply pressure and is expected to accumulate inventory. Short - fiber has a good long - term supply - demand pattern, while bottle - chip has long - term overcapacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures declined. The port inventory is expected to remain high, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Urea's upward drive is insufficient, with high daily production and overall loose supply - demand [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continued to accumulate inventory, and its price declined. Supply pressure may ease, but overall demand is weak. Caustic soda continued to decline, with high supply and insufficient demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was in shock, with high inventory and an overall oversupply pattern in the long term. Glass prices were weak, with low demand and the need for further cold - repair for upward drive [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. Geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on oil prices, and the overall oil price continues to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed down. The east - west arbitrage window closure may reduce the inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes to Singapore in December, but the inventory in Singapore remains sufficient. The high - sulfur fuel oil market in December is also expected to have sufficient supply. The price of fuel oil is expected to remain weak due to the relatively pessimistic view on oil prices in December [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up. In November, the supply and demand of asphalt were both weak. In December, supply will further decrease, and winter storage demand will gradually start. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [2][3]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX closed down on Wednesday. At the end of the year, downstream demand is gradually weakening, and the cost of PX is under pressure. TA prices are expected to oscillate with costs, and ethylene glycol prices are expected to adjust widely [3]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts closed down. The rubber market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate. The price of butadiene rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and return to normal in the medium term [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2122 yuan/ton. In December, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and imports will fall from a high level. The overall demand for olefins is expected to increase. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were at a low level. In December, supply will increase, and demand will weaken. If the crude oil price remains stable, polyolefins will tend to oscillate at the bottom [5][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market price oscillated weakly. In December, production will continue to increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline. However, due to factors such as the narrowing of the hedging space and the removal of export restrictions, the PVC price may tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI January contract closed up 0.31 dollars to 58.95 dollars/barrel, a 0.53% increase; Brent February contract closed up 0.22 dollars to 62.67 dollars/barrel, a 0.35% increase; SC2601 closed at 450.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.6 yuan/barrel, a 0.36% increase. US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased last week, while the Cushing crude inventory decreased. Refinery processing volume and capacity utilization increased. Geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on oil prices [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed down. The east - west arbitrage window closure may reduce the inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes to Singapore in December, but the inventory in Singapore remains sufficient. The high - sulfur fuel oil market in December is also expected to have sufficient supply [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up. In November, the supply and demand of asphalt were both weak. In December, supply will further decrease, and winter storage demand will gradually start [2][3]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX closed down on Wednesday. At the end of the year, downstream demand is gradually weakening, and the cost of PX is under pressure. TA prices are expected to oscillate with costs, and ethylene glycol prices are expected to adjust widely [3]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contracts closed down. The rubber market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate. The price of butadiene rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and return to normal in the medium term [3][5]. - **Methanol**: The spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2122 yuan/ton. In December, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and imports will fall from a high level. The overall demand for olefins is expected to increase. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polyolefins were at a low level. In December, supply will increase, and demand will weaken. If the crude oil price remains stable, polyolefins will tend to oscillate at the bottom [5][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market price oscillated weakly. In December, production will continue to increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline. However, due to factors such as the narrowing of the hedging space and the removal of export restrictions, the PVC price may tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on December 3, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The expectation that US and Western sanctions on Russian crude oil exports cannot be lifted in the short term has supported oil prices. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][22][25][26][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][33][34][36][37][38]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [42][44][47][50][52][54][56]. - **4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - commodity contracts for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil (internal - external spread, B - W spread), fuel oil (high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][60][63]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [71][72][73][74].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ·PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2025- 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 2025-10 2024-12 02 05 09 09 01 09 01 01 05 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 -FDY现金流 ·DTY现金清 800 涤短现金流 切片现金 600' 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2025- 2023- 01 02 0მ 01 0 ...

务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,报 投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 与传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 lle 41 客 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 直纺短纤负荷(周) 品出口询盘明显增加,国内聚酯出口前景 88. 37% 89. 32% 0. 95% 观。瓶片、短纤成本跟随。以上数据来目 涤纶短纤产销 47.00% 50. 00% -3. 00% Itto 涤纱开机率(周) 66. 00% 66. 00% 0. 00% 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 51. 10% 51. 10% 0. 00% 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 年会命德提SZEL (器块) 照日后S2EL (探偵) 太理念榜■ 条短现金流 = 1.4D直线投 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 ...