1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Polyester Sector - In the short - term, although the cost center has shifted upwards, the supply - demand drivers are insufficient, and the polyester sector's enthusiasm to follow the rise in crude oil is limited. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situation changes. - In the medium - to - long - term, the expected increase in supply and the non - significant peak demand characteristics put pressure on the polyester sector as a whole [30][31] Methanol Sector - In the short - term, the supply side is slightly shrinking, the high - inventory problem at ports remains unsolved, and the upward space is limited. MTO is still the main demand force, but the recent losses have intensified, and the traditional downstream performs poorly. Methanol is mainly in a short - term range - bound oscillation due to coal cost support. - In the medium - to - long - term, the inflection point of port inventory is the core point of the market. Attention should be paid to the reduction in imports caused by the implementation of gas restrictions in Iran. If the medium - to - long - term signals are positive, methanol may rebound [49] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil News - The US plans to sanction two major Russian oil companies, and the EU has passed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia. Russia believes these sanctions will not achieve the expected results. - US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased in the week ending October 17, indicating resilient energy demand. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for economic and trade consultations with the US from October 24 - 27 [5][6][7] Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of WTI crude, PX, TA, EG, PF, and PR all increased week - on - week, with WTI crude rising 7.65%. Spot prices of related products also generally increased. - PX, PTA, and other product bases showed different degrees of change, with PX base increasing by 192.58% [9] Supply - Side Situation - **PX**: Urumqi Petrochemical plans to restart on October 29, and Asian PX load has slightly declined. This week, domestic PX production decreased, and next week's supply is expected to increase slightly. - **PTA**: Hengli Petrochemical's 220 - million - ton No. 1 device restarted on October 24, and this week's domestic PTA production increased, with social inventory decreasing. - **Ethylene Glycol**: This week, domestic ethylene glycol production slightly increased, but the load decreased. Next week, due to device overhauls, supply will slightly decrease, and port inventory decreased this week [14][17][18] Demand - Side Situation - The average weekly polyester start - up rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points. Short - fiber inventory increased slightly, and long - fiber inventory decreased during the week. - As of October 24, the start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased, the number of orders from Chinese weaving sample enterprises increased, and the inventory days of grey cloth decreased [19][22][28] Methanol Sector Price Trends - The futures price of MA2601 decreased by 2.03%, and the base decreased by 45.45%. The spot price of methanol in Taicang increased by 2.99%, and the methanol CFR decreased by 1.04%. The prices of downstream products such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid generally decreased [33] Cost and Profit - This week, the profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol production decreased, and natural - gas - based production continued to lose money. The overall demand - side profit of methanol declined significantly, and production enterprises suffered serious losses [39] Supply - Side Situation - As of October 23, the methanol start - up rate was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points, and the output was 194.35 million tons, a decrease of 2%. This week, the number of overhauled devices was greater than that of resumed devices. Next week, some devices plan to resume production, and there are no new overhaul plans [42][49] Demand - Side Situation - Affected by profit compression, the overall demand start - up load continued to weaken. MTO is still the main downstream demand force, with a load fluctuating around 91%. Traditional downstream industries performed poorly, and it is expected that MTO will continue to decline next week [45][49] Inventory Situation - As of October 22, port inventory was 151.22 million tons, an increase of 1.4%, and inland inventory was 36.04 million tons, an increase of 0.13%. Port inventory slightly increased, and inland inventory also increased slightly [48][49]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The game intensifies, with sentiment and fundamentals resonating. The PTA supply side is shrinking, and its processing fee remains low. Industry profits are still constrained by over - capacity due to new device launches. Although the polyester downstream load remains above 90%, there are concerns about subsequent textile and clothing demand after the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The PTA operating rate may decline further, and it's difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to crude oil price trends [2]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China is still at a low level, with limited port arrivals this week and expected decline in overseas imports. Domestic device launches are pressuring the price. Coal - based ethylene glycol devices are resuming. The overall polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load is maintained. However, as the polyester peak season is ending and the crude oil fundamentals are weakening, the polyester is expected to run weakly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **Crude oil and PTA - related**: INE crude rose from 447.2 yuan/barrel on October 22, 2025, to 459.7 yuan/barrel on October 23, 2025. The PTA - SC spread decreased from 1232.2 yuan/ton to 1167.3 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio dropped from 1.3791 to 1.3494. The PTA main contract futures price increased from 4482 yuan/ton to 4508 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot price rose from 4370 yuan/ton to 4425 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX increased from 798 to 811, and the PX - naphtha spread rose from 258 to 260 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main contract futures price increased from 4051 yuan/ton to 4095 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 110.72 yuan/ton to - 104.91 yuan/ton, and the MEG domestic price rose from 4107 to 4173 [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - The PX operating rate remained at 84.62%, the PTA operating rate was stable at 76.95%, the MEG operating rate decreased from 63.35% to 61.89%, and the polyester load remained at 89.38% [2]. Product Sales and Cash Flow - **Polyester filament**: POY150D/48F decreased from 6380 to 6360, and its cash flow dropped from 18 to - 71. FDY150D/96F increased from 6590 to 6620, and its cash flow decreased from - 272 to - 311. DTY150D/48F decreased from 7740 to 7735, and its cash flow dropped from 178 to 104. The filament sales rate increased from 53% to 101% [2]. - **Polyester staple fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6365 to 6390, and its cash flow decreased from 353 to 309. The staple fiber sales rate decreased from 107% to 68% [2]. - **Polyester chips**: The semi - bright chip price increased from 5485 to 5525, and its cash flow decreased from 23 to - 6. The chip sales rate decreased from 141% to 54% [2]. Device Maintenance An East - China 2.2 - million - ton PTA device slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9] - Options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties in each sector [9] - The option strategy report for each option variety is compiled according to the underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - Various option varieties' underlying contracts' latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes are presented, such as crude oil (SC2512) with a latest price of 470, a price increase of 16, and a price change rate of 3.48% [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open interest PCR for different option varieties are given, along with their changes, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for different option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interests of call and put options [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for different option varieties are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, etc. [7] 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentals involve OPEC's production increase and US shale oil production. The market has shown different trends from July to October. Option factors indicate a decline in implied volatility, a weak market according to open interest PCR, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a neutral call + put option combination and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [8] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Fundamentals show a decrease in domestic LPG production in September. The market has experienced ups and downs. Option factors suggest a decline in implied volatility, a weak market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a neutral call + put option combination and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [10] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Fundamentals involve port and enterprise inventories. The market has been weak. Option factors indicate that implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, a weak - oscillating market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Fundamentals show inventory changes. The market has been weak. Option factors suggest that implied volatility fluctuates below the average, strong bearish power, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a directional strategy of constructing a bearish spread of put options, a volatility strategy of shorting volatility, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: Fundamentals involve inventory changes. The market has been weak. Option factors indicate a decline in implied volatility to around the average, a weak market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a spot long - hedging strategy of holding a spot long position, buying an at - the - money put option, and selling an out - of - the - money call option [11] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Fundamentals show inventory changes. The market has been in a weak consolidation. Option factors suggest that implied volatility has decreased to around the average, a relatively strong bullish market according to open interest PCR, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination [12] 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: Fundamentals show inventory accumulation. The market has been weak. Option factors indicate that implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level, an oscillating market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination [12] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Fundamentals show a decline in production capacity utilization. The market has been weak. Option factors suggest high - level volatility of implied volatility, a weak - oscillating market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a directional strategy of constructing a bearish spread and a spot collar - hedging strategy [13] - **Soda Ash**: Fundamentals show an increase in factory inventory. The market has been in a low - level weak oscillation. Option factors indicate that implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high historical level, strong bearish pressure, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a volatility strategy of shorting volatility and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [13] 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: Fundamentals show an increase in enterprise and port inventories. The market has been in a low - level weak oscillation. Option factors suggest that implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, strong bearish pressure, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a directional strategy of constructing a bearish spread of put options, a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination, and a spot long - hedging strategy [14] 3.6 Option Charts - Charts for various option varieties, such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc., are provided, including price trends, trading volume and open interest, open interest PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility cones, and pressure and support levels [15][36][54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to some domestic reforming units reducing their loads, the load of PX units has declined. The supply of PTA has contracted, with Ningbo Yisheng Petrochemical Phase 4 reducing its load by 50% until the end of the month. PTA's processing fee has remained low, and industry profits are still constrained by over - capacity due to new device commissioning. The downstream load of polyester has remained above 90%. Despite the end of the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" period, the demand for textile and clothing is still acceptable. In the later period, the operating rate of PTA may decline further. The rebound in crude oil prices has led to a rise in PTA prices, and bottle chips and short fibers continue to fluctuate with costs [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators Price Indicators - PTA spot price increased from 4320 to 4370, a change of 50; MEG inner - market price rose from 4075 to 4107, a change of 32; PTA closing price went up from 4414 to 4482, a change of 68; MEG closing price increased from 4004 to 4051, a change of 47; 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price rose from 6340 to 6365, a change of 25; short - fiber basis decreased from 218 to 184, a change of - 34; 11 - 12 spread increased from 8 to 10, a change of 2; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 940 to 965, a change of 25; East China water bottle chip price increased from 5594 to 5663, a change of 69; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 5594 to 5663, a change of 69; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5694 to 5763, a change of 69; outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 740 to 745, a change of 5; bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 535 to 551, a change of 15.53; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10280; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3940 to 3915, a change of - 25; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16350; cotton 328 price increased from 14530 to 14560, a change of 30; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1654 to 1626, a change of - 27.92; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 6920; hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 661 to 608, a change of - 53.47; primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained unchanged at 7310 [2]. Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber rose 78 to 6136. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants were mainly negotiated, the prices of traders were rising, downstream purchases were few, and the market was mainly replenished through futures - spot trading, with trading volume increasing. The price range of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - glossy natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6120 - 6460, in the North China market was 6240 - 6580, and in the Fujian market was 6100 - 6400 [2]. - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5620 - 5720 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The prices of polyester raw material PTA and bottle - chip futures rebounded, most supply - side quotations increased, the procurement enthusiasm of downstream terminals remained at the rigid - demand level, the market trading atmosphere was average, and the price center of bottle chips moved up slightly [2]. Load and Production and Sales Indicators - The direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40%, a change of 0.01; polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 72.00% to 66.00%, a change of - 6; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50%, a change of 0.01 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating All the varieties in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][6][7] Core Viewpoints The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical commodities, including their price movements, market supply - demand situations, and influencing factors. Most commodities are expected to oscillate in the short - term due to various factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand changes, and cost fluctuations [1][2][4]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI December contract rose $1.26 to $58.50/barrel (2.18% increase), Brent December contract rose $1.27 to $62.59/barrel (2.07% increase), and SC2512 rose 7.3 yuan/barrel to 449.1 yuan/barrel (1.65% increase). US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased last week. Geopolitical factors, such as Trump's remarks on Russia and US - India trade progress, may drive up short - term price volatility [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts FU2601 and LU2512 rose. In September 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, while exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The Asian low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to weak demand and sufficient supply [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 rose. This week, the social inventory rate decreased slightly, the refinery inventory increased slightly, and the plant operating rate increased slightly. Terminal demand is weak, and high supply may suppress prices [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures rose on Wednesday. Some MEG and refinery units have maintenance plans. Korean PX exports increased. Polyester supply is sufficient, and downstream demand provides some support. The polyester chain follows cost fluctuations [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts showed little change. The EU's policy implementation for small and medium - sized enterprises is postponed. Some rubber varieties have tight liquidity, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, methanol prices were reported. Domestic and overseas supply has returned to a high level, but future Iranian production growth is limited. Port sanctions may reduce future arrivals. It is recommended to consider long - methanol and short - polyolefin strategies and inter - month positive spread strategies [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, polyolefin prices and production margins were reported. Short - term supply will remain high, and demand growth will slow down. Crude oil rebound supports prices, but the fundamentals drive is weakening, and prices are expected to oscillate [6][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in different regions changed little. Supply - demand pressure is high, and exports are affected by policies. The price has a need for phased repair, but the rebound is limited by high inventories [7]. Daily Data Monitoring This part provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical commodities on October 23, 2025, as well as the percentage of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. Market News - The US EIA reported that last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased. Analysts believe that oil demand is strong, and there is no sign of crude oil surplus in the US [13]. - The US Treasury imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and Trump denied media reports about allowing Ukraine to use long - range missiles against Russia [13]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the historical closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical commodities from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, etc. [15][16][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the historical basis data of main contracts for various commodities, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [30][34][35] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads of different contracts for multiple commodities, like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][46][49] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: It includes the historical spreads and ratios between different commodities, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads [60][62][64] - **Production Profits**: It shows the historical production profits of some commodities, such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [69][70] Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director and energy - chemical director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in futures derivatives research and multiple awards [75]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth industry research and many awards [76]. - **Di Yilin**: A rubber and polyester analyst, with relevant research achievements and awards [77]. - **Peng Haibo**: A methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and financial theory application [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - For the polyolefin industry, the overall macro - environment is pessimistic, and the cost and supply - demand situation are weak. The prices of PP and PE are under pressure. The 01 contracts of LLDPE and PP have limited upside space due to new device production pressure and lackluster demand [2]. - In the polyester industry, PX is expected to be strong in the short - term due to supply contraction and demand support. PTA may be boosted in the short - term. EG is under pressure due to inventory build - up. Short - fiber prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and bottle - chip prices follow the cost side [4]. - Regarding pure benzene and styrene, the supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, and its price drive is weak. The supply - demand of styrene is also expected to be loose, and its price drive is weak. They may follow oil prices in the short - term [5]. - For PVC and caustic soda, short - term caustic soda prices are weak due to supply increase and general demand, while long - term there is demand support. PVC has large supply - demand pressure, and the short - term disk has stopped falling [6]. - In the methanol industry, the price may continue to oscillate under the supply - demand game, and attention should be paid to overseas device operation, port de - stocking, and overseas gas - limiting expectations [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 22, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 increased. The price differences between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed. The prices of some spot products such as East China PP wire drawing and North China LDPE film also rose [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories decreased. The operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. Polyester Industry - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On October 22, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha increased. The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY also changed. The cash flows of some products decreased [4]. - **PX - Related**: Some PX devices had unplanned maintenance or load reduction, and a new PTA device was planned to be put into production. PX supply was expected to shrink, and demand was supported [4]. - **PTA - Related**: As some PTA devices restored their loads and new devices were about to be put into production, the PTA spot basis continued to weaken [4]. - **EG - Related**: Domestic ethylene glycol devices started up and increased their loads, and the supply was sufficient. It was expected to build up inventory in October [4]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber supply was high, and demand was supported. Bottle - chip was in the traditional off - season, and demand was weak [4]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 22, the prices of some products such as CFR China pure benzene and BZ futures 2603 increased. The spreads between pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha decreased [5]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories changed, and the operating rates of industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain also changed [5]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Pure benzene supply was expected to be loose due to new capacity and weak demand. Styrene supply was expected to be high, and demand was limited [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 22, the prices of SH2601 and V2601 increased, while SH2509 decreased. The price differences between SH2509 - 2601 and V2509 - V2601 changed [6]. - **Export and Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC export prices and profits changed. The inventories of caustic soda and PVC also changed [6]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Caustic soda demand was weak in the short - term but had long - term support. PVC supply - demand pressure was large, and the market was weak [6]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 22, the closing prices of MA2601 decreased, while MA2605 increased. The basis and regional price differences changed [7]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol inventories such as enterprise, port, and social inventories increased. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries changed [7]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Overseas methanol production decreased, and there were expectations of supply reduction. Port inventory was high, and demand was weak in the traditional downstream [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polypropylene, Styrene, PVC, Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated in the table, but with analysis in the report [3] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: The symbol in the table is unclear [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a mixed trend, with different products having different price trends and supply - demand situations. Some products are affected by factors such as inventory, cost, demand, and policies, and their short - term and medium - term trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with controllable enterprise inventories and stable offers. Downstream follow - up was okay, and the trading range was stable [2] - Polyethylene futures rose, but the market was waiting for news, with cost support weakening and supply pressure. Sellers mostly offered small discounts [2] - Polypropylene futures rose. Although the supply pressure decreased due to more upstream maintenance, the demand improvement in the peak season was limited, and the high - level inventory was slowly digested. The supply - demand contradiction may increase, and the price may remain low for a long time [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices rebounded above 5500 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China rebounded, and the low - level transactions in Shandong improved. The short - term price may rebound, but the high import volume in the medium term is the main pressure [3] - Styrene futures rose, but there were only expected device shutdowns. The inventory remained high, and the upward price momentum was limited [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rebounded with reduced positions. The short - term price may continue to rebound, mainly depending on oil prices. In the medium term, with the weakening demand and expected inventory accumulation, the strategy is mainly reverse arbitrage [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded with increased positions. The short - term price has a rebound expectation, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure in the medium term, suggesting shorting at high prices [5] - Short fiber continued to be a bullish allocation. The new production capacity was limited, the inventory was decreasing, and the downstream备货 sentiment was improved [5] - Bottle chip demand weakened, with inventory accumulation and pressure on processing margins. The long - term pressure is over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol fluctuated at a low level. The short - term coastal market may fluctuate within a range, and the price may be bullish in the medium - to - long term as the import supply pressure is expected to decrease [6] - Urea futures prices rose slightly. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, supported by the marginal improvement of supply - demand and coal prices [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a fluctuating trend. The supply may increase, and it may operate at the bottom range due to weak domestic demand and potential export policy pressure [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated narrowly. The supply fluctuated slightly, and it is recommended to be cautious when shorting due to non - aluminum downstream restocking and a high basis [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated strongly. The supply was still high, and it is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass fluctuated narrowly. The inventory continued to accumulate, and the downward range is expected to be limited. It is advisable to pay attention to selling out - of - the - money put options [8]

聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——供应端传闻扰动，EG低位反弹 2025/10/22 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 3800-4300 | 11.64% | 10.6% | | PX | 6000-6800 | 13.82% | 34.1% | | PTA | 4250-4750 | 13.87% | 23.9% | | 瓶片 | 5300-5900 | 11.19% | 31.9% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 【利空解读】 1、华南一套80万吨/年的MEG新装置计划于11月上旬乙烯进料进行试开车，届时将有部分产量可兑现于市 场。华南新装置原计划26年一季度投产，如今投产时间提前，12月供应端预计将带来小幅额外增量。 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA supply is shrinking, but its processing fee remains low due to over - capacity from new device production. With the end of the peak season and concerns about trade - war impacts on textile demand, PTA's operating rate may decline further, and it's difficult to have an independent market due to falling crude oil prices [2] - For ethylene glycol, port inventory in East China is low, but domestic device production and expected decline in overseas imports put pressure on prices. With the end of the polyester peak season and a weakening crude oil fundamental, polyester is expected to run weakly [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data Changes - INE crude oil rose from 435.8 yuan/barrel on Oct 20, 2025, to 437.7 yuan/barrel on Oct 21, 2025, an increase of 1.9 yuan [2] - PTA - SC increased from 1217.0 yuan/ton to 1233.2 yuan/ton, up 16.19 yuan; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.3843 to 1.3877, an increase of 0.0034 [2] - CFR China PX increased from 783 to 784, and PX - naphtha spread rose from 246 to 247 [2] - PTA main contract futures price rose from 4384 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; PTA spot price increased from 4315 yuan/ton to 4320 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - PTA spot processing fee rose from 119.6 yuan/ton to 121.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.2 yuan; the disk processing fee increased from 188.6 yuan/ton to 215.8 yuan/ton, up 27.2 yuan [2] - MEG main contract futures price rose from 4003 yuan/ton to 4004 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; MEG - naphtha decreased from - 102.16 yuan/ton to - 102.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 4100 yuan/ton to 4075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [2] b. Industry Chain Operating Rates - PX, PTA, MEG operating rates and polyester load remained unchanged at 84.62%, 76.95%, 65.39%, and 89.38% respectively [2] c. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150D/48F decreased from 6390 yuan/ton to 6340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; POY cash flow decreased from 77 to 31, a decrease of 46 [2] - FDY150D/96F remained unchanged at 6605 yuan/ton; FDY cash flow increased from - 208 to - 204, an increase of 4 [2] - DTY150D/48F decreased from 7740 yuan/ton to 7735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; DTY cash flow decreased from 227 to 226, a decrease of 1 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6355 yuan/ton to 6340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; staple fiber cash flow decreased from 392 to 381, a decrease of 11 [2] - Semi - bright chip decreased from 5475 yuan/ton to 5465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; chip cash flow decreased from 62 to 56, a decrease of 6 [2] d. Product Sales Ratios - Long - filament sales ratio increased from 55% to 86%, an increase of 31% [2] - Staple - fiber sales ratio decreased from 68% to 66%, a decrease of 2% [2] - Chip sales ratio increased from 67% to 93%, an increase of 26% [2] e. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefins - The supply of PE is increasing steadily, with significant profit improvement, continuous increase in the operating rate, and limited planned maintenance. Overseas inventory clearance at the end of the year also brings impacts, highlighting long - term supply pressure. PP's valuation has been significantly repaired due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil. Although there are more recent overhauls in PP, the new device commissioning pressure in October is large, and the demand side lacks bright performance. The supply - demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. Overall, the macro - environment is pessimistic, and the prices of PP and PE face pressure [2]. Methanol - At the port, due to sanctions, some warehouses do not accept sanctioned vessels, increasing the willingness to hold spot goods. Coupled with supply - side disturbances, the port basis has strengthened significantly. Overseas production has declined, and some devices have stopped. In late October, attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction caused by overseas gas restrictions. Inland supply has a certain bottom - support for prices due to a relatively healthy inventory structure. The demand side is weak. Overall, the price may continue to fluctuate under the supply - demand game, and attention should be paid to the port de - stocking rhythm and the implementation effect of overseas gas - restriction expectations [4]. Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, although there are device overhauls, there are also new production capacity commissioning expectations, and the domestic supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The downstream demand support is limited, and the inventory in East China ports may continue to decline. The price drive is weak in October. For styrene, under the double pressure of inventory and industry profit, some devices are under overhaul, but new devices are about to be commissioned, and the overall supply will remain high. The demand side support is also limited, and the price drive is weak. In the short - term, the price is still under pressure [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply has shrunk compared to expectations due to unexpected overhauls or load reductions of some devices, while the demand has increased. However, overall, the supply - demand is still weak, and the price is in a weak oscillation. For PTA, the spot basis continues to weaken, but the downward space is limited. The absolute price is also in a weak oscillation. For short - fiber, the price is supported in the short - term, but the cost - side support is weak. For bottle - chips, it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period, and it follows the cost - side fluctuations. For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is abundant, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in October, with the upper price limit under pressure [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the demand support from the aluminum industry is weak in the short - term, but there may be long - term demand support. The supply is increasing in the short - term, and the price is weak. For PVC, the supply - demand pressure is large, the fundamental contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the price is weak. The cost - side provides bottom support, and short - term short positions can stop profit [8]. Summary by Catalogs Polyolefins Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6883 yuan/ton on October 21, up 4 yuan or 0.06% from the previous day. PP2601 closed at 6283 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.27%. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 5.48%, and that of PP2509 - 2601 decreased by 24.71% [2]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory increased by 27.67% to 48.9 (unit unclear), and social inventory decreased by 0.04% to 54.5. PP enterprise inventory increased by 30.96% to 68.1 (unit unclear), and trader inventory increased by 39.48% to 26.1 [2]. Operating Rate - The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61% to 81.8%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.26% to 44.9%. The PP device operating rate increased by 0.6% to 78.2%, the powder operating rate increased by 5.4% to 39.3%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.2% to 51.9 [2]. Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2268 yuan/ton on October 21, up 2 yuan or 0.09%. The basis of Taicang decreased by 50.00% to - 33 [4]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.33% to 36.09%, and port inventory decreased by 3.36% to 149.1 million tons [4]. Operating Rate - The domestic upstream operating rate decreased by 1.86% to 76.55%, and the overseas upstream operating rate increased by 2.28% to 73.7%. The downstream MTO device operating rate remained unchanged at 86.28% [4]. Benzene - Styrene Upstream Price and Spread - Brent crude oil (December) was at $61.32/barrel on October 21, up $0.31 or 0.5%. The price of pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) decreased by 3.5% to 5450 yuan/ton [6]. Styrene - Related Price and Spread - Styrene East China spot price was 6440 yuan/ton on October 21, up 70 yuan or 1.1%. The EB11 - EB12 spread increased by 81.9% [6]. Inventory - Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 10.0% to 0.90 million tons, and styrene inventory increased by 3.1% to 20.25 million tons [6]. Operating Rate - The Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1.1% to 79.2%, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 4.8% to 75.5% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Price - Brent crude oil (December) was at $61.32/barrel on October 21, up $0.31 or 0.5%. CFR Japan naphtha was at $540/ton, up $3 or 0.6% [7]. PX - Related Price and Spread - CFR China PX was at $784/ton on October 21, up $1 or 0.1%. The PX - naphtha spread was $244/ton, down $2 or 0.8% [7]. PTA - Related Price and Spread - PTA East China spot price was 4320 yuan/ton on October 21, up 5 yuan or 0.1%. The PTA spot processing fee was 122 yuan/ton, up 1.8% [7]. MEG - MEG East China spot price was 4075 yuan/ton on October 21, down 25 yuan or 0.6%. MEG port inventory increased by 7.0% to 57.9 million tons [7]. Operating Rate - The Asian PX operating rate decreased by 2.4% to 78.0%, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 4.3% to 74.4% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price remained unchanged at 2560.0 yuan/ton. V2509 was at 5125.0 yuan/ton on October 21, down 10 yuan or 0.2% [8]. Overseas Quotation and Export Profit - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda was $380/ton on October 16, down $20 or - 5.0%. The export profit of PVC decreased by 81.5% to 19.0 yuan/ton [8]. Operating Rate - The caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 85.5%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 7.0% to 75.1% [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased by 1.1% to 19.5, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 0.1% to 55.6 [8].