例如，印度和越南正分别在服务业和制造业领域取得良好发展，墨西哥和巴西展现出货币政策的纪律 性，智利强大的金融体系则为其增加了稳定性。此外，部分新兴市场的通胀率已回落至新冠疫情前水 平，降息周期已经开启。比如，墨西哥今年已降息五次，印尼降息四次，波兰降息三次。 贝莱德智库提到，美联储即将实施降息，尽管其认为降息幅度有限，但这将为新兴市场央行提供更多的 货币政策宽松空间，因为跟随美联储的政策步伐可以降低本国货币贬值的风险。该机构认为，当前是锁 定匈牙利、捷克、南非、巴西、墨西哥和哥伦比亚的本币债券收益率的较好机会。 贝莱德智库发文称，今年以来新兴市场表现亮眼。固收方面，全球新兴市场债券回报率近9%，而美国 国债回报率仅为4.5%。股票方面，MSCI新兴市场指数上涨20%，远超代表发达市场的MSCI世界指数 14%的涨幅。美元走弱、经济韧性及颠覆性趋势共同驱动了新兴市场的表现。由于不同国家的表现存在 分化，因此需要进行优选布局。贝莱德智库对整体新兴市场股票持中性观点，同时挖掘具有亮点的领 域，并看好新兴市场本币债券。 美元走弱推动了今年新兴市场资产的回报增长。相关数据显示，今年美元对主要货币汇率贬值约10%， 而许 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with only 22,000 new non-farm jobs added in August, significantly below market expectations, paving the way for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][6] - The report highlights that gold prices have surged over 37% this year, driven by expectations of monetary policy easing and macroeconomic uncertainty, with spot gold breaking through $3,600 per ounce, setting a new historical record [2][9] - The report notes that the U.S. Treasury yields are on a downward trend due to weak employment data, with short-term and long-term yields both declining, indicating a market expectation of further rate cuts [4][21] Commodity Market - Gold prices have reached new highs, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3,600.8 per ounce, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of a rate cut [9][10] - The oil market has experienced significant downward pressure, with WTI crude oil prices dropping from $64.69 per barrel to $61.87 per barrel, amid concerns of oversupply and weak demand [15][16] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased across the board, with the 1-year to 30-year yields falling between 15 to 19 basis points, reflecting market expectations of aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [21][22] - The report indicates that the Chinese bond market is experiencing fluctuations, with short-term yields adjusting more than long-term yields, influenced by market sentiment and policy expectations [23] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index has shown a slight decline, influenced by weak economic data and political uncertainties, with expectations of continued weakness in the dollar [27][28] - The euro has strengthened against the dollar, supported by expectations of a stable European Central Bank policy and moderate economic growth in the Eurozone [37][41] Equity Market - The report notes a mixed performance in global equity markets, with technology stocks benefiting from anticipated rate cuts, while concerns over global economic slowdown and corporate earnings prospects create volatility [51][52] - The Nasdaq index has outperformed due to its high concentration of technology stocks, while European indices have faced downward pressure from economic uncertainties [51][52]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly as investors expect the Federal Reserve to implement larger rate cuts to support a slowing job market [1][2] - The August non-farm payroll report indicated a stagnation in the labor market for four consecutive months, with a rare downward revision of June's data showing a net decrease in jobs [1] - Market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September have risen to 10.2%, compared to 0% the previous day, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut stands at 89.7% [1] Group 2 - The weak job market has reignited concerns about potential recession risks, with investors adjusting their growth and earnings expectations [2][3] - Despite initial optimism in the market, the weak data led to a reassessment of corporate earnings and economic growth prospects [3] - Short-term volatility is expected, but support from rate cuts and fiscal policies may provide upward momentum for the stock market by 2026 [2][3]

Group 1 - Gold prices fell by 0.4% to close at $3545.63, with a low of $3511.44 during the session, but saw a slight increase in the European market, hovering around $3548 [1] - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 350.06 points (0.77%), the Nasdaq up 209.96 points (0.98%), and the S&P 500 up 53.82 points (0.83%) [1] - The ADP employment report for August showed an increase of 54,000 jobs, below the expected 65,000, indicating a slowdown in hiring activity and supporting the view of cooling labor market demand [1] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 237,000, exceeding expectations and increasing by 8,000 from the previous week, further confirming the trend of labor market slowdown [3] - Traders have increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut on September 17, with a 99.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut [3] Group 3 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny due to a criminal investigation into board member Lisa Cook, with warnings of unprecedented political interference from the Trump administration [4] - This interference could lead to rising inflation expectations, a depreciation of the dollar, and turmoil in global financial markets [4] Group 4 - President Trump signed an executive order to implement the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which includes adjustments to tariffs and aims to prevent double taxation on certain imports from Japan [5] - Japan is committed to increasing its procurement of U.S. rice by 75% and purchasing $8 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually, including corn and soybeans [7] Group 5 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is highly anticipated, with economists predicting an addition of 75,000 jobs and a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [7] - Average hourly earnings are expected to remain flat month-over-month, with a year-over-year growth rate slowing from 3.9% to 3.7% [7] Group 6 - Historically, September is not a strong month for U.S. stocks, with a higher probability of declines compared to gains [8] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 17 could provide clarity on interest rate changes, which significantly impact stock market liquidity [8]

Report Information - Research Team: Guanyi'an Futures Research Center Macro Team [1] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [1] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 4, 2025, yields varied widely across countries, e.g., the US was 4.162%, Japan 3.589%, and China 1.806% [2] - Recent changes showed mixed trends, with some yields rising and others falling over different time - frames (latest, one - week, one - month, one - year) [2] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on September 4, 2025, such as the US at 3.660%, the UK at 3.944%, and Germany at 1.961% [2] - Changes over different periods also showed a mix of increases and decreases [2] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On September 4, 2025, exchange rates were as follows: Brazil 5.447, South Africa zar 17.779, etc. [2] - Exchange rates had different percentage changes over various time - spans, with some appreciating and others depreciating [2] Performance of Major Economies' Stock Indices - On September 4, 2025, indices like the S&P 500 was 6502.080, the Nikkei was 42580.270, etc. [2] - Indices showed different trends in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes [2] Credit Bond Indices - Different credit bond indices (US investment - grade, Eurozone investment - grade, etc.) had varying percentage changes over different time periods [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices on September 4, 2025: A - share was 3765.88, CSI 300 was 4365.21, etc. [4] - All indices had negative percentage changes on that day, e.g., A - share - 1.25%, CSI 300 - 2.12% [4] Valuation - PE (TTM) values and their环比 changes were provided for several indices, such as CSI 300 (13.85, - 0.16) and S&P 500 (27.06, 0.28) [4] Risk Premium - Risk premium values and their环比 changes were given for some indices, e.g., S&P 500 (- 0.47, 0.01) and Germany's DAX (2.38, - 0.01) [4] Fund Flows - Latest and 5 - day average fund flow values were negative for most segments, e.g., A - shares (- 1326.31, - 1317.62) [4] Trading Volume - Latest trading volume and环比 changes were presented for different markets, e.g., Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets (25442.57, 1801.71) [4] Basis and Spread of Main Contracts - Basis and spread percentages were provided for IF, IH, and IC contracts, e.g., IF (- 15.81, - 0.36%) [4] Treasury Futures Trading Data Futures Closing Prices and Changes - Closing prices on September 4, 2025, for T00 was 108.350, TF00 was 105.815, etc. [5] - All had positive percentage changes, e.g., T00 0.15%, TF00 0.09% [5] Money Market Interest Rates - Interest rates for R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3577%, 1.4622%, and 1.5500% respectively, with R001 having a - 10.00 BP daily change [5]

Group 1 - Asian stock markets are buoyant following weak U.S. employment data, with expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The MSCI Asia Index rises, led by Japan, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also show slight increases due to anticipated Fed actions [1] - Chinese stock markets, however, experience a decline of over 2% due to concerns over a $1.2 trillion margin financing event, prompting potential tightening of monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The bond market remains favorable as traders expect two more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year [3] - Global bond yields decline in response to falling U.S. Treasury yields, with non-farm payroll data being a critical indicator for future monetary policy [3] - Gold prices have seen a drop after seven consecutive days of increases, although long-term trends indicate structural support from central banks [3] Group 3 - Brent crude oil prices fall to $67 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate drops below $64, with discussions of "oversupply" rather than "scarcity" emerging [5] - OPEC+ considers increasing production, which seems counterintuitive given the current market conditions, as supply growth outpaces demand absorption [5] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, complicate the oil market, with traders noting that oil continues to flow to China and India despite sanctions [6] Group 4 - The market shows a divergence: stock markets are buoyed by Fed's accommodative policies, gold receives support from central banks, while oil struggles under supply surplus pressures [6] - Liquidity remains a dominant force in the market, but its distribution is uneven across different asset classes [6]

Group 1 - The rebound of small-cap stocks in the U.S. has come to an end due to investor concerns that interest rate cuts may not be sufficient to support heavily indebted companies [1] - The Russell 2000 index saw a 7% increase in August, marking its best monthly performance of the year, but has declined every trading day since entering September [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield potentially breaking 5% has dampened the appeal of small-cap stocks, as it suggests that bond market rates will remain high regardless of Federal Reserve actions [1] Group 2 - Companies in the Russell 2000 index often rely on the high-yield debt market for financing, which is sensitive to changes in borrowing costs [2] - Lower interest rates could support these companies, but the strongest fundamentals are likely to benefit the most [2] - Data shows that since December, whenever the 10-year Treasury yield rises to or above 4.6%, profitable small-cap stocks have outperformed unprofitable ones by an average of 4.6 percentage points [2] Group 3 - Not all unprofitable small-cap stocks are the same; investors are urged to differentiate between those temporarily unprofitable due to growth investments and those with weak business models lacking profitability [3] - If interest rate cuts are imminent, growth-oriented small-cap stocks may emerge as relative winners, while value-oriented small-cap stocks could lag behind [3] - Year-to-date, value stocks in the Russell 2000 have outperformed growth stocks by 2.5% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rebound momentum of small-cap stocks in the U.S. is fading, with concerns that the pace and extent of interest rate cuts may not sufficiently alleviate the pressure on highly leveraged companies [1] Market Performance - The Russell 2000 index has experienced consecutive daily declines in September after achieving a 7% increase in August, marking its best monthly performance of the year [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching 5% raises market concerns, indicating that even if the Federal Reserve takes action, bond market rates may remain elevated for an extended period, negatively impacting small-cap stock sentiment [1] Economic Outlook - Despite potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this month, there are worries that the Fed may subsequently pause, compounded by an uncertain economic outlook in the U.S., which increases overall uncertainty [1] Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest prioritizing companies with robust earnings that can withstand uncertainty in the current environment [1] - According to Boston, the head of global small-cap stocks at Polar Capital, if a rate-cutting cycle begins, growth-oriented small-cap stocks are likely to outperform within the sector, while value-oriented companies may lag [1]

Report Date - The report is dated September 4, 2025 [1] Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - On September 3, 2025, the 10 - year bond yields of major economies varied, with the US at 4.218, UK at 4.747, etc. The latest changes, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes also differed across countries. For example, the US 10 - year bond yield had a latest change of - 0.044, a weekly change of - 0.017, a monthly change of - 0.011, and a yearly change of 0.401 [2] - The 2 - year bond yields of some major economies also showed different values and changes on September 3, 2025. For instance, the UK 2 - year bond yield was 3.956, with a latest change of - 0.021, a weekly change of - 0.003, a monthly change of 0.140 [2] Exchange Rates - The exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies had various changes. For example, against the Brazilian real, the exchange rate on September 3, 2025, was 5.451, with a latest change of - 0.26%, a weekly change of 0.61%, a monthly change of - 0.23%, and a yearly change of - 0.80% [2] - The on - shore and off - shore RMB, RMB mid - price, and 12 - month NDF also had their own changes in rates [2] Stock Indices - Stock indices of major economies had different closing prices and changes on September 3, 2025. The S&P 500 closed at 6448.260, with a latest change of 0.51%, a weekly change of - 0.51%, a monthly change of 1.63%, and a yearly change of 14.80% [2] Credit Bond Indices - Credit bond indices of different regions and types (investment - grade and high - yield) had different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.44%, a weekly change of 0.06%, a monthly change of 0.33%, and a yearly change of 3.50% [2][3] Futures Trading Data Stock Index Futures - For A - shares, the closing price was 3813.56 with a decline of 1.16%. The closing prices, changes, valuations, risk premiums, fund flows, trading volumes, and basis spreads of other indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were also presented [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 had closing prices of 108.290, 105.790, 108.160, and 105.725 respectively, with corresponding changes in percentages [5] Money Market - The capital interest rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3543%, 1.4644%, and 1.5500% respectively, with daily changes in basis points [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Bank of America highlights significant divergence in asset performance this year, with gold leading precious metals, a resurgence in the Chinese stock market, and U.S. equities at high levels but nearing bubble warning signs [1] Investment Strategy - Bank of America recommends a "three increases and two decreases" risk-averse investment strategy, suggesting investors increase holdings in European high-yield bonds and emerging market sovereign debt, which are expected to benefit from a shift towards looser monetary policy [1] - The report expresses optimism about the Chinese stock market, citing attractive valuations and a gradual inflow of capital [1] - Gold is identified as a key asset for hedging against geopolitical risks and potential depreciation of the U.S. dollar [1] Asset Recommendations - The report advises reducing exposure to U.S. technology stocks, particularly the "big tech" companies, due to their high valuations and associated risks [1] - Additionally, the outlook for the oil market is negative, with the report indicating that the supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to improve in the short term [1]