研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/06 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 国外货币市场 债 券 市 场 国内债券市场 国外债券市场 股 票 市 场 汇 率 市 场 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are betting on a significant rebound opportunity for small-cap stocks, despite a poor start in 2025, with historical data suggesting a 60% chance of small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks in June [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Russell 2000 index has declined approximately 5.9% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500's 1.5% gain, and small-cap stocks have not reached new highs since 2021 [1] - The sentiment around small-cap stocks is currently pessimistic, with call option volumes in the Russell 2000 ETF nearing their lowest since February [2] - Short positions in small-cap stocks have been increasing, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF seeing its highest short amount since 2022 [2] Group 2: Potential Catalysts for Rebound - A substantial agreement between the U.S. and its trade partners, along with strong economic data, could serve as catalysts for a rebound in small-cap stocks [2] - The Russell 2000 index has shown a slight outperformance against the S&P 500 by 0.5 percentage points in the first three trading days of June [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Russell 2000 index is currently at a critical turning point around 2100 points, with a potential rise to 2500 points (a 19% increase) if it breaks through this level [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar and US Treasury bonds are no longer considered safe-haven assets, and the dollar is expected to weaken in the coming years, potentially becoming a risk asset [1][2] - The market is experiencing a shift, leading to increased volatility, and while the dollar was previously strong, it is now facing challenges due to uncertainties such as tariffs [2] - Despite the weakening dollar, there is no recommendation against investing in US stocks; rather, it is suggested to preserve gains accumulated in the US stock market by reallocating funds to non-US assets [2] Group 2 - There is a significant influx of global capital into the Chinese capital markets, particularly the Hong Kong market, which has seen increased liquidity since September of last year [1][3] - The correlation between A-shares and precious metals has shifted, with both now behaving more like safe-haven assets, especially during downturns in the US stock market [3] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has reported a substantial increase in the base currency balance, leading to lower overnight rates and a surge of funds into the Hong Kong market, with estimates of $2 trillion to $3 trillion in overseas capital flowing in [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the emergence of various acronyms in financial markets that reflect the volatility and uncertainty since Donald Trump's return to the presidency, with strategies linked to his economic and trade policies [1][2][3] - Acronyms like MAGA (Make America Great Again) and YOLO (You Only Live Once) were popular during the initial phase of Trump's presidency, driving significant market movements, but have since lost favor due to concerns over economic policies and market stability [2][3] - The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) strategy has gained traction among traders, betting on Trump's tendency to backtrack on aggressive policies, leading to market rebounds after initial declines [3][4] Group 2 - MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) has resurfaced as European markets outperform U.S. markets, driven by increased interest in European equities and military spending in response to U.S. policies [5][6] - The MAGA variant, "Make America Go Away," reflects a growing sentiment among foreign investors to avoid U.S. markets due to concerns over inflation and the erosion of confidence in U.S. assets [6][7] - FAFO (Fuck Around and Find Out) describes the chaotic market conditions resulting from Trump's policy decisions, highlighting the risks of frequent trading in response to market volatility [7]

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets are experiencing significant outflows, while gold and bonds are emerging as winners amid a weak dollar environment [1][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - Global stock funds faced the largest weekly net outflow since 2025, totaling $9.5 billion, with ETFs losing $3.2 billion and actively managed funds losing $6.4 billion [2][12]. - Bond assets attracted $19.3 billion this week, marking five consecutive weeks of inflows, with emerging market debt seeing $2.8 billion, the highest since January 2023 [2][5]. - Gold funds received $1.8 billion in inflows this week, with an annualized inflow reaching a record $75 billion, surpassing other asset classes [5][23]. Group 2: Currency and Asset Rotation - The weak dollar is driving asset rotation, benefiting cryptocurrencies, gold, emerging market bonds, and real estate investment trusts, which saw a net inflow of $300 million, the largest since October of last year [9][11]. - The dollar is entering a bear market, influenced by tariff policies and a shift in Federal Reserve independence, which supports a bullish outlook for gold and emerging markets [11][23]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The "BIG" strategy (Bonds, International Stocks, Gold) is recommended for investors, as it aligns with the current market dynamics [23]. - The S&P 500 defensive sector's share has dropped to 18%, the lowest since 2000, indicating a high-risk appetite in the market [15][18]. - The "Seven Giants" stocks are trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 42, suggesting a potential for further gains despite being below historical bubble averages [18][23].

研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/30 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/29 | 4.420 | 4.647 | 3.176 | 2.506 | 3.488 | 3.109 | - | 3.230 | | 最新变化 | -0.060 | -0.079 | -0.047 | -0.047 | -0.046 | -0.045 | - | -0.047 | | 一周变化 | -0.110 | -0.102 | -0.144 | -0.136 | -0.163 | -0.148 | - | -0.148 | | 一月变化 | 0.210 | 0.139 | -0.060 | -0.013 | -0.139 | -0.071 | - | -0.117 | | 一年变化 | 0.007 | 0 ...

Report Overview - Date: May 30, 2025 - Report Type: Financial Futures Daily Report - Issuer: Everbright Futures 1. Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Oscillating [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: On May 29, the A - share market rebounded significantly, with the Wind All - A index rising 1.17% and trading volume reaching 1.21 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also showed varying degrees of increase. The TMT and pharmaceutical biological sectors led the rebound. Although the economic data in April declined compared to March, it remained resilient. The social retail sales year - on - year rate was 5.1%, supported by the "trade - in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and M2 year - on - year growth of 8%. The Sino - US joint statement and recent policy announcements, such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and measures to encourage long - term funds to enter the market, are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable rise of stock market valuations. The internal policy drive is the main line for the equity index in 2025 [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 29, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 266 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan after 154.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. In the short term, the bond market is difficult to have a trend - based market and will follow the changes in the capital and economic fundamentals. The bond market is in a sideways oscillation pattern after adjustment. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [3]. 3. Daily Price Changes 3.1 Equity Index Futures and Stock Indices | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,673.6 | 2,665.4 | 8.2 | 0.31% | | IF | 3,832.8 | 3,805.0 | 27.8 | 0.73% | | IC | 5,668.6 | 5,568.0 | 100.6 | 1.81% | | IM | 6,031.0 | 5,899.0 | 132.0 | 2.24% | | SSE 50 | 2,690.9 | 2,683.1 | 7.8 | 0.29% | | SSE 300 | 3,858.7 | 3,836.2 | 22.5 | 0.59% | | CSI 500 | 5,719.9 | 5,637.2 | 82.7 | 1.47% | | CSI 1000 | 6,089.6 | 5,984.5 | 105.1 | 1.76% | [4] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.35 | 102.40 | - 0.054 | - 0.05% | | TF | 105.87 | 106.02 | - 0.15 | - 0.14% | | T | 108.48 | 108.73 | - 0.255 | - 0.23% | | TL | 118.69 | 119.40 | - 0.71 | - 0.59% | [4] 4. Market News - On May 29, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, stated in response to a question from AFP that in the tariff issue, China has repeatedly clarified its stance that tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [5]. 5. Chart Analysis 5.1 Equity Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of each index futures contract [7][8][9][10][11] 5.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][18][19] 5.3 Exchange Rates - The report displays the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates among major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [22][23][24][26][27] 6. Team Members - Zhu Jintao, Master of Economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29] - Wang Dongying, an equity index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on equity index futures, macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking [29]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's unconventional operations have triggered a global financial market response, leading to a temporary alleviation of the "trust crisis" in U.S. assets as indicated by rising dollar, U.S. stocks, and bonds, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields falling below 4.5% and 30-year yields dropping below 5% for the first time since last year [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Japanese Finance Ministry's issuance of a survey to market participants regarding bond issuance and market conditions signals a potential policy shift [2]. - Reports suggest Japan may consider reducing the issuance of long-term bonds to ease market pressure, addressing the recent surge in long-term bond yields [2]. - The combination of the survey and potential bond issuance cuts is seen as a direct response to the global asset sell-off driven by rising Japanese bond yields [2]. Group 2: Effects on U.S. Markets - The demand for U.S. Treasuries has structurally shifted as the potential decrease in Japanese long-term bond issuance compels global investors to focus on U.S. bonds, leading to a significant reduction in asset sell-off [3]. - The decline in long-term bond yields has restored confidence in the stock market, with all three major U.S. stock indices experiencing gains [3]. - The breach of the 5% threshold in 30-year U.S. Treasury yields alleviates short-term concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt and helps restore investor confidence in global assets [3]. Group 3: Underlying Concerns - Despite the temporary market recovery, analysts caution that Japan's actions do not fundamentally resolve structural issues, particularly regarding the sustainability of Japan's fiscal situation [4]. - The risk associated with U.S. debt remains, as recent auctions for 20-year bonds were weak, and upcoming auctions for 5-year and 7-year bonds will be critical indicators of demand strength [4]. - Global risk appetite remains fragile, with potential escalations in U.S. tariff policies or deteriorating economic fundamentals posing risks of renewed asset sell-offs [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Japan's recent market intervention has provided a short-term boost to global financial markets, but deeper issues such as Japan's fiscal sustainability, U.S. debt expansion risks, and sluggish global economic recovery remain unresolved [5]. - The future trajectory of global asset markets will depend on the effectiveness of policy coordination among countries and the pace of economic recovery [5]. - Any policy missteps by involved parties could trigger new rounds of market volatility in this ongoing "confidence game" [5].

周二，美国股债汇齐涨，再度上演"TACO交易"。 在因阵亡将士纪念日休市一天后，美股在本周首个交易日集体收涨，道指涨1.78%，纳指涨2.47%，标 普500指数涨2.05%，大型科技股普涨。 美债反弹，收益率普跌，长端美债收益率至少跌超8个基点。30年期德债收益率跌超6个基点。 从威胁到妥协：50%关税的48小时反转 这轮市场过山车始于上周五特朗普突然宣布的炸弹消息。在贸易谈判毫无进展的挫败感驱使下，特朗普 宣布将从6月1日起对欧盟商品征收50%关税。 市场反应堪称灾难性：道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌256点，跌幅0.6%；标普500指数重挫2.6%；纳斯达克 综合指数下跌1%。这一"天外飞来"的公告让投资者在长周末假期中忐忑不安。 伦敦Saxo Markets的英国投资策略师Neil Wilson在周五特朗普宣布对欧盟征收50%关税的惊人决定后 写道： "希望和预期仍然是，我们将看到'TACO交易'上演。"事实证明，Wilson的预测准确无误。 剧情在周日晚间出现戏剧性反转。 特朗普在社交媒体上发布消息称，应欧盟主席Ursula von der Leyen 的请求，同意将50%关税的实施推迟至7月9日。 "这是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of stagflation, characterized by the coexistence of high inflation and high unemployment, which challenges traditional economic theories and policies [2][9]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Stagflation - Stagflation is defined as an economic condition where stagnation (slow or negative growth) and inflation (rising prices) occur simultaneously [3]. - It disrupts the traditional trade-off between inflation and unemployment, leading to a complex economic environment [2]. Group 2: Causes of Stagflation - Supply shocks, such as sudden increases in oil prices, are classic causes of stagflation, leading to higher costs and reduced economic activity [2][7]. - Poor economic policies, including overly loose monetary and fiscal measures, can exacerbate inflation without addressing stagnation [2][7]. - Other contributing factors include restrictive production policies, wage-price spirals, and self-fulfilling inflation expectations [7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Reactions - The 1970s in the U.S. serve as a historical example of stagflation, marked by high inflation rates reaching nearly 15% and unemployment rates exceeding 8% [6][8]. - The stock market suffered significantly during this period, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing little to no growth, and many previously popular stocks collapsing [6][8]. - Bond markets also faced challenges, with rising interest rates leading to falling bond prices and negative real yields [8][12]. Group 4: Policy Responses to Stagflation - Initial policy responses included price and wage controls, which failed to resolve underlying issues and led to market distortions [8]. - The later approach involved aggressive monetary tightening under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, which successfully reduced inflation but resulted in a severe economic recession [8][9]. - The experience of the 1970s highlights the dilemma policymakers face: stimulating the economy can worsen inflation, while tightening can deepen stagnation [9]. Group 5: Implications for Current Economic Conditions - Understanding the causes and historical responses to stagflation is crucial for analyzing current economic conditions in the U.S. and globally [10].