化工日报 | 2025-05-22 聚酯减产意向影响，EG震荡下跌 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4414元/吨（较前一交易日变动+1元/吨，幅度+0.02%），EG华东市场现货价 4516元/吨（较前一交易日变动+6元/吨，幅度+0.13%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）88元/吨（环比-7元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-23美元/吨（环比-4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为181元/吨（环比-48 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为74.3万吨（环比-0.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为66.4万吨（环比-2.8万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数6.4万吨，到港量偏少，但同时 聚酯工厂隐性库存下降，港口小幅去库；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.9万吨，中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，近期仓单量大幅增加，乙二醇现货流动性收紧，卫星等几套大装置仍存检修计划； 需求端，近端聚酯负荷高位提升，5月聚酯月均负荷或不降反升，需求端支撑，同时美国对中国纺服关税大幅下降， 美国订单恢复发货。短期外轮到货偏少，聚 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 旺季预期 VSOPEC+增产，油价区间震荡。夏季原油消费旺季即将到来；中美关税超预期 | | 原油 | 震荡 | 下降，宏观面改善，市场风险偏好上升；OPEC+扩产持续增产，原油远月压力较大。SC | | | | 【455-475】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 仓单压制盘面，液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气不断攀升，盘面受到压制，走势偏弱；成 | | | | 本端反弹，但下游利润不佳，PDH 开工率下降，港口库存连续累库。PG【4200-4230】 | | L | 偏弱 | 现货疲软，基差走弱，社库去化速度放缓，供给充沛；短期出口端抢出口有一定支撑， | | | | 内贸淡季，反弹偏空。L【7180-7275】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 成本端原油偏弱，上中游库存去化，月内存新装置投产计划，供给充沛，内需淡季，基 | | | | 本面供需格局偏弱，反弹偏空。PP【7000-7100】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 仓单下降，4 月出口表现依旧亮眼，本周开工存上行预期，出口后市尚存不确定性，盘面 | | | | ...

化工日报 | 2025-05-22 PTA装置陆续重启,关注成本支撑 市场要闻与数据 在原油上涨和主流供应商减合约消息下，周三PTA期货震荡上行，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差企稳。 市场分析 成本端，市场近期关注点在宏观和地缘上反复切换，目前暂无消息指引，油价拉锯盘整，继续关注美伊核谈和俄 乌谈判方面进展。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解近期有所反弹，但季节性表现仍弱于前两年。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。3~5月上旬韩国出口 到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复情况。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN258美元/吨(环比变动-13.25美元/吨）。近期近期宏观利好提振，同时多套px装置计划外 损失增加，进一步收紧PX近月供需预期，市场货源偏紧，加之窗口内PX买气活跃，外商挺价积极，进一步支撑价 格上行，PXN低位反弹，当前已脱离低估值水平。后续5月国内PX检修装置将陆续重启，供应预计有所增加，但PTA 新装置投产下PX延续去库。整体来看，短期市场情绪好转和计划外检修增多下PXN反弹明 ...

2025年05月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：夜盘大幅反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 3 | | 铜：避险情绪升温，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：偏强运行 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间调整 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：锂盐厂减产，并未影响资源端，上方仍然承压 | 15 | | 工业硅：弱势格局依旧 | 17 | | 多晶硅：仓单累库，关注市场情绪变动 | 17 | | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：钢招价格落地，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：底部震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：底部震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 26 | | 原木：弱势 ...

交产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月21日 寇帝斯 | 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【2011 1292号 | | | | 纪元菲 20013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 5月20日 | 5月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 8800 | 8950 | -150 | -1.68% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 890 | 820 | 70 | 8.54% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9700 | 9850 | -150 | -1.52% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | ddo | 920 | 70 | 7.61% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8100 | 8200 | -100 | -1.22% | | | 基差(新疆) | 990 | 870 | 120 | 13.79% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 5月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The market's focus has been shifting between macro and geopolitical factors, with oil prices in a range - bound consolidation. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear talks and the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [2] - The gasoline crack has rebounded recently, but its seasonal performance is still weaker than in the previous two years. The aromatics blending demand for gasoline is not promising this year, and the intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha [2] - PXN has rebounded from a low level due to macro - level positive factors and unexpected losses of multiple PX plants. In May, domestic PX maintenance plants will gradually restart, and PX will continue to draw down inventory under the commissioning of new PTA plants [2] - The PTA spot basis has weakened, and the processing fees have declined. With the high - operation of downstream polyester plants, PTA will continue to draw down inventory significantly in May. As the PTA price rebounds, the maintenance of PTA plants is postponed, and the supply will gradually return [3] - The polyester operating rate has increased, and downstream orders have improved after the positive progress of the China - US negotiations and tariff reduction. The inventory of filament has decreased significantly, and the average monthly polyester load in May may increase instead of decrease [3] - The spot processing fee of polyester bottle - chips has increased, and the market supply is gradually rising, which may put pressure on the market price. Attention should be paid to the maintenance news of bottle - chip plants due to rising costs [4] - After the continuous and rapid rise, the current valuations of PXN and PTA are no longer at low levels, and the market sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the downstream negative feedback and the support from the crude oil cost side [5] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main - contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main - contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various types of warehouse receipts for PTA, PX, and PF [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It includes figures on the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of various filament products, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][60] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover the load of polyester staple fiber, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories, and the operating rates and processing fees of related yarns [71][73][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the load of polyester bottle - chips, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and various price spreads [91][93][99]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2024, global pure benzene consumption exceeded 65 million tons per year, with China being the largest consumer and importer, consuming over 25 million tons and having almost no exports [1]. - The five major downstream products of pure benzene (styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid) account for about 95% of domestic benzene demand [1]. - Over the past five years, the consumption of pure benzene by the five major downstream industries has increased, mainly driven by the expansion of downstream product capacities [3]. - Globally, Western Europe, China, and the United States are the main importers of pure benzene, while Eastern Europe, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and South America are net exporters [7]. - South Korea is the world's largest exporter of pure benzene, with its exports to China and the United States increasing significantly in recent years [9]. - China's pure benzene imports have been rising year - by - year due to strong downstream demand, and South Korea is the largest source of imports [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene Consumption 1.1 Domestic Pure Benzene Consumption by Downstream Industry Distribution - Styrene is the main downstream product of pure benzene, consuming over 12 million tons in 2024, accounting for over 40% of domestic pure benzene consumption [1]. - Caprolactam and phenol together consumed about 10 million tons of benzene in 2024, aniline about 3.5 million tons, and adipic acid less than 2 million tons [1]. - The consumption growth of the five major downstream industries in the past five years was driven by capacity expansion, such as the growth of styrene and phenol capacities and the expansion of caprolactam capacity due to increased demand in related industries [3]. 1.2 Pure Benzene Consumption by Regional Distribution - East China is the largest domestic pure benzene consumption market, with a demand share of nearly 60% in 2024 and showing high - speed growth [5]. - North China, Northeast China, and South China had similar consumption volumes of about 2.5 million tons in 2024, and South China had a relatively fast consumption growth rate in the past five years due to the growth of local styrene capacity [5]. - The total benzene consumption in other domestic regions was about 3 million tons in 2024 [5]. 2. Pure Benzene Trade Pattern 2.1 Pure Benzene International Trade - Western Europe, China, and the United States are major importers, while Eastern Europe, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and South America are net exporters [7]. - The most active trade areas are Asian countries' exports to China and the pure benzene arbitrage between South Korea and the United States [7]. - South Korea's pure benzene exports increased significantly in recent years, reaching 3.38 million tons in 2024, mainly to China and the United States, accounting for over 90% of its total exports [9]. - China's pure benzene imports reached a new high in 2024, with South Korea being the largest source, accounting for half of the total imports [11]. 2.2 Pure Benzene Domestic Trade Pattern and Flow - Northeast and Northwest China produce a large amount of by - product pure benzene but have relatively low downstream consumption, resulting in a net outflow of about 2 million tons in 2024 [13]. - East China has a large supply gap of about 6.5 million tons in 2024, with about 3.5 million tons met by imports [13]. - Shandong and Fujian need to transfer more pure benzene from other regions due to the large - scale commissioning of downstream refining and chemical facilities [13]. - In general, pure benzene flows from the Northwest to East and Southwest China, from the Northeast and North China to East China, and some imported goods in East and South China flow to the inland [13]. 2.3 Pure Benzene Domestic Logistics - Domestic pure benzene is mainly transported by road and water, with a small amount by pipeline and railway, and the transportation policy is relatively stable with mature routes [15]. - Road transportation is mainly used for cross - regional circulation in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui, with relatively large cost fluctuations [15]. - Sea transportation is mainly used in Liaoning, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong, with fixed routes and relatively stable costs [15].

| 《八八 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月20日 | | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ななな | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | ななな | PX | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ななな | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 王雪忆 分析师 | | 统威 | ☆☆☆ 瓶片 | | ななな | F03125010 | | | | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇】 甲醇主力合约连续回落。国内多套装置复产,供应压力的显著增多对行情产生较大压制,生产 ...

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化工日报 | 2025-05-20 隐性库存释放，EG主港库存小幅下降 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4475元/吨（较前一交易日变动+15元/吨，幅度+0.34%），EG华东市场现货价 4573元/吨（较前一交易日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.11%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）92元/吨（环比+4元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-22美元/吨（环比-1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为224元/吨（环比-3 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为74.3万吨（环比-0.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为66.4万吨（环比-2.8万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数6.4万吨，到港量偏少，但同时 聚酯工厂隐性库存下降，港口小幅去库；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.9万吨，中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，近期仓单量大幅增加，乙二醇现货流动性收紧，卫星等几套大装置存检修计划； 需求端，近端聚酯负荷高位提升，5月聚酯月均负荷或不降反升，需求端支撑，同时美国对中国纺服关税大幅下降， 美国订单恢复发货。短期外轮 ...