Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with short - term price range - bound. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward potential; if not, prices are expected to range between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the long - term supply - demand pattern is bearish, and short - term rebounds should be treated as opportunities to go short. For glass, short - term long opportunities can be seized on dips, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [3]. Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. Before Iranian gas restrictions, the weak reality will continue to be priced in [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is stable, but November's supply - demand is expected to be loose. PTA is expected to be in a tight - balance in the short - term but loose in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to expected high inventory accumulation. Short - fiber and bottle - chip markets also face supply - demand challenges [8]. Polyolefins - Polypropylene and polyethylene both show increasing supply and demand, but the market still faces pressure from new capacity and supply increases [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to increased supply and weak demand. PVC is in an over - supply situation, and prices are expected to continue to be weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Styrene supply - demand may be in a tight - balance, but cost support is insufficient [14]. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton, with a 1.39% increase. The whole - latex basis increased by 250 yuan/ton to - 445 yuan/ton, a 35.97% rise [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a 17.86% decline [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 260,000 tons to 4.515 million tons, a 5.45% drop. China's production increased by 86,000 tons to 1.223 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons, a 3.57% increase [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,091 yuan/ton, a 0.91% decline [3]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda Ash 2605 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase [3]. - **Production Volumes**: Soda ash well - working rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89% [3]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash factory inventory increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons, a 2.54% increase [3]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2,112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decline [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.04% to 38.641% [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (January) rose 0.25 dollars/barrel to 63.63 dollars/barrel, a 0.4% increase [8]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX was 698 dollars/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East - China spot price rose 35 yuan/ton to 4,575 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase [8]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory increased by 7.5% to 56.2 million tons [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601 closed at 6,802 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline [11]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 17.84% to 49.0 million tons [11]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: SH2601 decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 2,331 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decline [13]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 3.3% to 88.3% [13]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 82.2% [13]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory increased by 18.9% to 22.3 million tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: CFR China pure benzene was 664 dollars/ton, up 0.2% [14]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased, with supply pressure rising [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Caprolactam operating rate remained unchanged at 86.1% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber Industry - The natural rubber market may enter a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with short - term price fluctuations in a range. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward potential; if not, the price is expected to range between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is bearish in the medium - long term, and short - term rebounds can be used as opportunities to go short. For glass, there are short - term trading opportunities for low - level rebounds, but the industry still needs capacity clearance [3]. Methanol Industry - The market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. The inventory problem of the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue to be priced in before Iranian gas restrictions [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may fluctuate between 6,200 - 6,800; PTA may range between 4,300 - 4,800; for ethylene glycol, hold short - call options and conduct reverse spreads; short - fiber has limited rebound space; bottle - grade polyester chips will follow cost fluctuations [8]. Polyolefin Industry - Polypropylene shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand with inventory reduction, but the basis is weak. For polyethylene, the demand for agricultural films is strong, but attention should be paid to the potential impact of year - end foreign market inventory clearance [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and the market trend is bearish. PVC is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose, and prices should be shorted on rallies following oil prices. Styrene supply - demand may be in a tight balance, but price drivers are insufficient, and the EB12 contract should be shorted on price rebounds [14]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole - milk rubber in Shanghai rose by 200 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton; the whole - milk basis increased by 250 yuan/ton to - 445 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 75 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 260,000 tons to 4.515 million tons; China's production increased by 86,000 tons to 1.223 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventories increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons;上期所天然橡胶厂库期货库存 increased by 3,931 tons to 48,586 tons [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The glass 2601 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,091 yuan/ton; the 01 basis increased by 10 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The soda ash 2605 contract increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton; the 01 basis decreased by 3 yuan/ton to - 3 yuan/ton [3]. - **Output and Capacity**: The soda ash well - working rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89%; the float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 161,300 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash factory inventories increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons; glass factory soda ash inventories remained unchanged at 204,000 tons [3]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The MA2601 contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 2,112 yuan/ton; the太仓 basis decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventories increased by 10,400 tons to 386,410 tons; methanol port inventories increased by 10,600 tons to 1.517 million tons [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09%; the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 1.09% to 84.98% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (January) increased by 0.25 dollars/barrel to 63.63 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil (December) increased by 0.32 dollars/barrel to 59.75 dollars/barrel [8]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price increased by 45 yuan/ton to 6,560 yuan/ton; FDY150/96 price increased by 40 yuan/ton to 6,770 yuan/ton [8]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX increased by 0.1 dollars/ton to 826 dollars/ton; PX spot price (in RMB) decreased by 83 yuan/ton to 6,772 yuan/ton [8]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East China spot price increased by 35 yuan/ton to 4,575 yuan/ton; TA futures 2601 decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 4,664 yuan/ton [8]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG East China spot price increased by 41 yuan/ton to 4,013 yuan/ton; EG futures 2601 increased by 18 yuan/ton to 3,942 yuan/ton [8]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 contract decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 6,802 yuan/ton; PP2605 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 6,574 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventories increased by 74,200 tons to 490,000 tons; PP trade inventories increased by 8,600 tons to 229,000 tons [11]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6%; the PP device operating rate increased by 0.9% to 77.8% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to self - use price remained unchanged at 2,500 yuan/ton; V2605 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 4,915 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - side Indicators**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 3.3% to 88.3%; the PVC total operating rate increased by 4.5% to 77.1% [13]. - **Demand - side Indicators**: The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 82.2%; the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate increased by 1.2% to 89.7% [13]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventories increased by 36,000 tons to 223,000 tons; PVC total social inventories decreased by 10,000 tons to 545,000 tons [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: CFR China pure benzene increased by 1 dollar/ton to 664 dollars/ton; BZ futures 2603 decreased by 84 yuan/ton to 5,422 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventories increased; styrene Jiangsu port inventories decreased [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate remained unchanged at 78.8%; the styrene operating rate decreased by 1.4% to 75.1% [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, supply has not yet increased significantly, so short - term bearish sentiment on oil prices should be cautious. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to test OPEC's export price - support intention [2] - For methanol, with rising domestic production and high imports, supply pressure increases. Demand is weak, leading to high enterprise and port inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and the high - inventory problem of the 01 contract may further suppress the spot price. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - For urea, prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack drivers, and supply and demand are relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, but the downside space is also limited at current low prices. It is advisable to wait and see [5] - For rubber, prices are rebounding as expected. Set stop - losses and conduct short - term long trades on pullbacks. Partially build positions for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11] - For PVC, the supply is strong and demand is weak, with poor export prospects. There is continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices are falling, while styrene futures prices are rising. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Styrene prices may stop falling in the short term due to high - level inventory reduction [16] - For polyethylene, the PE valuation has limited downward space, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, prices may remain range - bound at a low level [19] - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [22] - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory increase in November, with prices mainly following crude oil fluctuations. There may be opportunities for valuation increases in the medium term [25] - For PTA, continuous inventory accumulation is expected in November, and processing fees are under pressure. There may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by the increase in PXN in the medium term [28] - For ethylene glycol, there is expected to be continuous inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies [30] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed up 0.10 yuan/barrel, a 0.02% increase, at 460.60 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG gasoline inventory decreased by 0.56 million barrels to 12.78 million barrels, a 4.17% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 0.69 million barrels to 9.22 million barrels, an 8.14% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.30 million barrels to 24.48 million barrels, a 1.21% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.16 million barrels to 46.48 million barrels, a 0.35% decrease [5][6] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 17, remained stable in Inner Mongolia, and increased by 15 in southern Shandong. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 13 yuan to 2112 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15. The 1 - 5 spread remained stable at - 101 [2] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 30, 30, and 20 respectively. The 01 contract of the futures market increased by 23 yuan to 1667 yuan, with a basis of - 67. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 16 to - 67 due to news of new export quotas [4] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were oscillating. The expected resolution of the US government shutdown and the expected easing of Fed funds are macro - bullish factors. As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.54%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week and 5.35 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.45%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 4.37 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire exports slowed down. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.6 tons, an increase of 1.7 tons or 1.6% [9][10] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 19 yuan to 4611 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 91 (+19) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 304 (-1) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.8%, up 2.5%; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 81.2%, up 3.8%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 79.7%, down 0.5%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, down 0.9%. Factory inventory was 33.5 tons (-0.3), and social inventory was 104 tons (+1.2) [11] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract was 5422 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton; the basis was - 112 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 24 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active contract was 6317 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton; the basis was 33 yuan/ton, a weakening of 17 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 88.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 471.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the spread between EB continuous 1 and continuous 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 66.94%, up 0.22%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.93 tons, a decrease of 1.37 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, down 1.29%; the operating rate of PS was 53.50%, up 1.50%; the operating rate of EPS was 53.95%, down 8.30%; the operating rate of ABS was 71.60%, down 0.50% [15] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6802 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis was 48 yuan/ton, a weakening of 22 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.43%, down 0.31%. The production enterprise inventory was 49.02 tons, an increase of 7.42 tons; the trader inventory was 5.01 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.85%, down 0.52%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 79 yuan/ton, an expansion of 2 yuan/ton [18] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6464 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was 46 yuan/ton, a weakening of 13 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.94%, down 0.61%. The production enterprise inventory was 59.99 tons, an increase of 0.48 tons; the trader inventory was 22.86 tons, an increase of 1.5 tons; the port inventory was 6.46 tons, a decrease of 0.07 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.14%, up 0.52%. The LL - PP spread was 338 yuan/ton, an expansion of 4 yuan/ton [21] PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 6780 yuan; PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars to 823 dollars; the basis was - 61 yuan (+12); the 1 - 3 spread was 2 yuan (+6). The PX load in China was 89.8%, up 2.8%; the Asian load was 80.2%, up 2.1%. The FJDH plant in China and the FCFC plant in Taiwan restarted. The PTA load was 76.4%, down 1.2%. In October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 42.6 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons, an increase of 10.8 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 250 dollars (+11), the South Korean PX - MX was 110 dollars (+5), and the naphtha crack spread was 110 dollars (-2) [24] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 24 yuan to 4664 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 35 yuan/ton to 4575 yuan. The basis was - 78 yuan (+2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 64 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 76.4%, down 1.2%. The downstream load was 91.5%, down 0.2%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 31 was 220.7 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 53 yuan to 167 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 2 yuan to 216 yuan [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 18 yuan to 3942 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 41 yuan to 4013 yuan. The basis was 70 yuan (-4), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan (+3). The ethylene glycol load was 72.4%, down 3.8%; the load of synthetic gas production was 71.9%, down 11.5%; the load of ethylene production was 72.7%, up 0.7%. The import arrival forecast was 18.9 tons, and the East China departure on November 6 was 1.1 tons. The port inventory was 56.2 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 825 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 649 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 628 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 740 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 540 yuan [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the expected weakening of the fundamentals, the domestic methanol market is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term. Inland, multiple olefin plants have maintenance plans in November, the traditional downstream acetic acid plant has low operating rates, and a large methanol-to-hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has shut down for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on the demand side. Currently, domestic methanol operating rates are at a high level, and upstream methanol plants still maintain low inventories and focus on sales. Overall, the supply-demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short term. Considering that the current methanol price is at a low level, cautious short - selling by traders provides support for the bottom price, and the decline is expected to be limited. In the port area, under the suppression of the bearish sentiment of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. Attention should be paid to the follow - up impact of sanctions, Iranian shipments, and the operating rates of coastal MTO plants. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2090 - 2150 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Inland and port methanol markets face different supply - demand situations. Inland has demand - side pressures, while ports are affected by high supply expectations and inventories. The overall market is expected to be weak, but the decline may be limited due to price support [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2115 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 10, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 126.61 tons, with a slight decrease of 1.68 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has decreased by 3.28 tons to 80.55 tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [4]. - **Expectation**: The methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2601 ranging from 2090 - 2150 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have shut down; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Previously shut - down plants such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there are expected to be concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the operating rate of MTBE has significantly declined; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling; some plants in the production area have accumulated inventories due to continuous poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim region remains unchanged at 694 yuan/ton, the CFR price at the main port in China has decreased by 2 US dollars/ton to 247 US dollars/ton, and the import cost has decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 2174 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price has decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 2125 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants has decreased by 305 to 10854 [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis has increased by 14 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton, and the import spread has decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average national operating rate has decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, with significant decreases in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory in East China ports has decreased by 0.53 tons to 78.18 tons, while the inventory in South China ports has increased by 1.84 tons to 50.11 tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Multiple domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Heima, Qinghai Zhonghao, and others, with different maintenance start and end dates and varying impacts on production [57]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have restarted one unit, and Marjan is in the process of restarting in mid - March [58]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are also under maintenance or have production adjustments. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, and the restart time is expected to be 45 days later [59].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol Market - The current methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction centered on high port inventories. The 01 contract faces challenges in inventory digestion, and the weak reality pattern may continue until Iranian gas restrictions are implemented. The 05 contract is expected to see significant inventory reduction, so attention can be focused on the MTO profit shrinkage opportunity of the 05 contract [1][3]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is generally stable with some plant overhauls offset by xylene supplements. Demand has some support in the short - term, but the November supply - demand is expected to be loose, and price drivers are limited. PTA may have a slight inventory build - up, and its price rebound space is restricted. Ethylene glycol is expected to have a high inventory build - up in November - December, facing upward pressure. Short - fiber supply remains high in the short - term, but demand may weaken seasonally, and its price rebound space is limited. Bottle - chip supply and demand are in a loose pattern, and it follows cost fluctuations [6]. Polyolefin Market - PP supply increase is slowing due to more unplanned overhauls, while PE supply is expected to increase as overhauls peak. Demand has improved, but overall, there is pressure from increasing supply and decreasing demand. The 01 contract has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may offer long - term low - buying opportunities, and the month - spread is biased towards reverse arbitrage [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda supply is expected to increase in November, with weak demand support, and its price is expected to be weakly stable. PVC supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Market - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose in November, with limited demand support and increasing port inventories. Its price driver is weak. Styrene supply may slightly decrease in November, demand is expected to change little, and its price driver is also limited [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2125 on November 6, down 0.75% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2226, down 0.45%. The MA15 spread was - 101, up 6.32%. The太仓 basis was - 30, up 25%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang all had different changes [1]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory was 38.641% (a 2.75% increase), port inventory was 151.7 million tons (a 0.71% increase), and social inventory was 190.4% (a 1.11% increase) [2]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 76.09%, up 0.31%; overseas was 70.7%, down 2.68%. The downstream MTO device operating rate was 84.98%, up 1.09%, while the acetic acid operating rate was 72.3%, down 1.15% [3]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (January) was $63.38 per barrel, down 0.2%; WTI crude oil (December) was $59.43 per barrel, down 0.3%. CFR Japan naphtha was $576 per ton, down 0.3% [6]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 6515 yuan/ton, with a cash - flow of 94 yuan/ton, down 31.2%. The bottle - chip futures PR2601 price was 5736 yuan/ton, up 1.3% [6]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate was 78.1%, down 0.5%; PTA operating rate was 78.0%, down 1.0%; MEG comprehensive operating rate was 76.2%, up 4.0% [6]. Polyolefin Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6805, down 0.13%; PP2601 closed at 6471, down 0.31%. The L15 spread was - 81, down 6.90%; the PP15 spread was - 121, up 6.14% [8]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory was 49.0 million tons, up 17.84%; PP enterprise inventory was 60.0 million tons, up 0.81% [8]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - PE device operating rate was 82.6%, up 2.13%; PP device operating rate was 77.8%, up 0.9% [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged. V2601 closed at 4630, down 0.2%; the V basis was - 110, down 12.2% [11]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 88.3%, up 3.3%; PVC total operating rate was 77.1%, up 4.5%. The demand of caustic soda's main downstream, alumina, was weak, and PVC demand was in the off - season [11]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China plants increased by 18.9%, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (December) was $63.38 per barrel, down 0.2%; CFR Japan naphtha was $576 per ton, down 0.3%. Pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5300 yuan/ton, unchanged [12]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - Pure benzene East China spot was 5389 yuan/ton, down 0.4%; styrene East China spot was 6310 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. EB cash - flow (non - integrated) was - 213 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [12]. Operating Rates and Inventories - Domestic pure benzene operating rate was 74.1%, up 1.9%; styrene operating rate was 66.7%, down 3.7%. Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 12.10 million tons, up 42.4% [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, with rising domestic production and imports, and weakening demand, the pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand leads to high enterprise inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of further downward pressure on the market. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, with the price at a low level, low volatility, and a lack of fundamental drivers, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, and the downside space is also restricted. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, the price has rebounded as expected. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades opportunistically and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the fundamentals show a weak situation with high supply, weak demand, and poor export prospects. Although the short - term valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [15][16]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has fallen. The price may bottom out, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [18][19]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. With high supply pressure and weak demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [21][22]. - For PX, the load remains high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there is a high expectation of inventory reduction in November. However, the processing fee expansion is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair [26][28]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry fundamentals show high supply, increasing imports, and inventory accumulation. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [29][30]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.70 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.37%, at 460.40 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil in related refined oil futures rose 1.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%, at 2728.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil fell 8.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24%, at 3269.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.20 million barrels to 421.17 million barrels, a 1.25% increase; SPR replenished 0.50 million barrels to 409.60 million barrels, a 0.12% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 4.73 million barrels to 206.01 million barrels, a 2.24% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 0.64 million barrels to 111.55 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.08 million barrels to 21.89 million barrels, a 0.39% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.28 million barrels to 41.70 million barrels, a 0.67% increase [2]. - **Strategy Views**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The Taicang price decreased by 2, Inner Mongolia increased by 15, and the price in southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 16 yuan, at 2125 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 45. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 6, at - 101 [3]. - **Strategy Views**: With rising domestic production and imports, and weakening demand, the pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand leads to high enterprise inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of further downward pressure on the market. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The spot price in Shandong and Henan remained stable, while that in Hubei increased by 10. Most regions remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 11 yuan, at 1644 yuan, with a basis of - 74. The 1 - 5 spread was - 1, at - 83 [4]. - **Strategy Views**: With the price at a low level, low volatility, and a lack of fundamental drivers, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, and the downside space is also restricted. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: As of November 6, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.54%, 0.21 percentage points higher than last week and 5.35 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.45%, 0.24 percentage points lower than last week and 4.37 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.056 million tons, a 1.7 - million - ton increase, a 1.6% increase. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 658,000 tons, a 3% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 398,000 tons, a 0.4% decrease. The total spot inventory in the Qingdao area increased by 12,200 tons to 436,300 tons. In terms of spot prices, Thai standard mixed rubber was 145,350 (+200) yuan, STR20 was reported at 18,200 (+20) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1805 (+20) dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 6850 (+100) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 98,700 (+100) yuan [10][11]. - **Strategy Views**: The price has rebounded as expected. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades opportunistically and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 8 yuan, at 4630 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 (-20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 110 (-12) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (-2) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2400 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 870 (+70) yuan/ton, and ethylene was 740 (0) dollars/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.3%, a 1.7% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 77.4%, a 3.1% increase; the ethylene method was 80.2%, a 1.4% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 50.5%, a 0.7% increase. The factory inventory was 338,000 tons (+4000), and the social inventory was 1.03 million tons (-5000) [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The fundamentals show a weak situation with high supply, weak demand, and poor export prospects. Although the short - term valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 5330 yuan/ton, a 68 - yuan/ton decrease; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5398 yuan/ton, a 68 - yuan/ton decrease; the pure benzene basis was - 68 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan expansion. The spot price of styrene was 6350 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton decrease; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 6300 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan decrease; the basis was 50 yuan/ton, a 79 - yuan weakening. The BZN spread was 89.5 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan decrease; the non - integrated EB device profit was - 497.7 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase; the EB continuous 1 - continuous 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan reduction. The upstream operating rate was 66.72%, a 2.53% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 179,300 tons, a 13,700 - ton decrease. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.09%, a 0.68% decrease; the PS operating rate was 52.00%, a 1.80% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 62.24%, a 0.27% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 72.10%, a 0.70% decrease [15]. - **Strategy Views**: The prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [15][16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6805 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton decrease, and the spot price was 6875 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton decrease, with a basis of 70 yuan/ton, a 41 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 83.3%, a 0.73% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 490,200 tons, a 74,200 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 50,100 tons, a 300 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 45%, a 0.37% decrease. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 81 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan expansion [18]. - **Strategy Views**: The futures price has fallen. The price may bottom out, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [18][19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6471 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decrease, and the spot price was 6555 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decrease, with a basis of 84 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 78.55%, a 0.07% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 599,900 tons, a 4800 - ton increase, the trader inventory was 228,600 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase, and the port inventory was 64,600 tons, a 700 - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 52.61%, a 0.24% increase. The LL - PP spread was 334 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan expansion [21]. - **Strategy Views**: The futures price has declined. With high supply pressure and weak demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [21][22]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract increased by 170 yuan, at 6820 yuan, and PX CFR increased by 10 dollars, at 826 dollars. After conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, the basis was - 73 yuan (-92), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 4 yuan (+10). The PX load in China was 87%, a 1.1% increase; the Asian load was 78.1%, a 0.4% decrease. In terms of devices, Wushi Petrochemical in China restarted, Fujia Dahua was restarting, overseas, a 540,000 - ton device of Thailand's PTTG and Saudi Arabia's Satorp were under maintenance, and Taiwan's FCFC device was restarting. The PTA load was 76.4%, a 1.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Yisheng Dahua's load was restored, Zhongtai restarted, Dushan Energy's old device and Ineos were under maintenance, and Weilian Chemical reduced its load [24]. - **Strategy Views**: Currently, the PX load remains high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract increased by 88 yuan, at 4688 yuan, and the East China spot price increased by 35 yuan/ton, at 4540 yuan, with a basis of - 80 yuan (-3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 76.4%, a 1.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Yisheng Dahua's load was restored, Zhongtai restarted, Dushan Energy's old device and Ineos were under maintenance, and Weilian Chemical reduced its load. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Jinqiao's 200,000 - ton slicing was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. As of October 31, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.207 million tons, a 6000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 17 yuan to 114 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 24 yuan to 214 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there is a high expectation of inventory reduction in November. However, the processing fee expansion is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair [26][28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract increased by 10 yuan, at 3924 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 2 yuan, at 3972 yuan, with a basis of 74 yuan (-3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan (+11). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol load was 72.4%, a 3.8% decrease, among which the synthetic gas method was 71.9%, an 11.5% decrease; the ethylene - based load was 72.7%, a 0.7% increase. In terms of synthetic gas devices, Yulin Chemical and Tianye reduced their loads, Sinochem and Yankuang were under maintenance, and Jianyuan and Tongliao Jinmei were restarting. In terms of petrochemicals, there were few device changes. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Jinqiao's 200,000 - ton slicing was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. The import arrival forecast was 189,000 tons, and the East China departure on November 5 was 17,000 tons. The port inventory was 562,000 tons, a 39,000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 837 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 649 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 628 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 740 dollars, and the price

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in October and announced to end balance - sheet reduction and fully renew Treasury bonds and agency MBS from December, transitioning the liquidity environment from contraction to stability. - Domestic macro: Domestic policy support has been strengthened, and economic resilience has been maintained. The manufacturing industry slowed down in October, but the construction and service industries remained in expansion. Policy - based financial instruments and special bonds are being implemented faster, and investment recovery is accelerating. - Asset views: With the Fed's actions, Sino - US summit results, and policy announcements, market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation strategy. Non - ferrous metals perform relatively well, black commodities have rebound opportunities, bonds are in a slightly stronger oscillation pattern, and precious metals have medium - to - long - term allocation value [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The Fed's actions aim to manage risks during the economic data vacuum period, balancing growth and liquidity stability. - Domestic: Policy emphasis on "science and technology self - reliance, anti - involution, and expanding domestic demand" has strengthened the focus on economic construction. The economy continues to stabilize. - Asset Allocation: Adopt a "balanced allocation, structural offensive" strategy, with different asset classes having different performance characteristics and investment opportunities [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active, but there is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap stocks. Expected to oscillate and rise. - Stock index options: Market turnover has slightly declined, and the option market liquidity may be lower than expected. Expected to oscillate. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market remains weak, affected by policy, fundamental, and tariff factors. Expected to oscillate [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/silver: Due to the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Expected to oscillate, affected by US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. Expected to oscillate, with attention on the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: The market is weak, and attention should be paid to cost support. Expected to oscillate, affected by special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production. - Iron ore: Market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to demand changes. Expected to oscillate, affected by overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, and other factors. - Other products in this sector, such as coke, coking coal, etc., are also expected to oscillate, each affected by different factors [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate, with different influencing factors for each metal. For example, copper is affected by trade frictions, and aluminum is affected by inventory changes [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Most products in this sector are in a situation of weak supply - demand and are expected to oscillate. Some products, such as ethylene glycol and styrene, are expected to oscillate and decline, affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and trade [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - The agricultural sector shows a differentiated trend. Some products, such as protein meal, are expected to oscillate and rise, while others, such as natural rubber and sugar, are expected to oscillate and decline, affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policies [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the port price is falling, the inventory is high and hard to deplete, supply is rising while demand is weakening. With the unfulfilled expectation of overseas winter production cuts, if the high - inventory issue persists, the market may decline. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, supply and demand are both increasing, the market is in a relatively loose pattern with limited fundamental contradictions. The price has limited upside and downside, so it's advisable to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, when the price reaches the previous low, it's recommended to set a stop - loss and consider short - term long trading with a quick - in - quick - out approach. Partial position - building is suggested for the RU2601 long and RU2609 short hedge [12]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply, weak demand, and a weak export outlook. There is a risk of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies in the medium term [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the spot and futures prices are falling. The BZN spread has room to repair. The supply of pure benzene is ample, and the port inventory of styrene is decreasing. The price may stop falling in the short term [16][17]. - For polyethylene, the futures price is falling. The PE valuation has limited downside, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. It's expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [20]. - For polypropylene, the futures price is falling. There is high supply pressure and the overall inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts and the supply - surplus situation in the cost end suppress the price [23]. - For PX, the load is high, the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations, and the PXN is expected to face pressure in November. It's recommended to wait and see for now [26]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to decrease in November, and the demand may remain high. There is a risk of negative feedback due to low processing fees. It's recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, the port inventory is increasing, and it's expected to continue accumulating in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to short on rallies [30]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures closed down 1.50 yuan/barrel, a 0.32% decline, at 463.70 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. The weekly oil product data of Fujairah Port showed changes in gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang and Inner Mongolia remained stable, while that in southern Shandong decreased by 20. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 26 yuan to 2141 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 59. The 1 - 5 spread changed by + 15 to - 95 [3]. - **Strategy**: The port price is falling, inventory is high, supply is rising, and demand is weakening. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 10, while those in Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 3 yuan to 1633 yuan, with a basis of - 63. The 1 - 5 spread was - 2, at - 82 [6]. - **Strategy**: Supply and demand are both increasing, the market is in a relatively loose pattern. It's recommended to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has returned to near the starting point and shows signs of stabilization. There are different views on the rise and fall. As of October 30, 2025, the operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong changed, and the inventory of tire factories increased slightly. The social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased in October [10]. - **Strategy**: When the price reaches the previous low, set a stop - loss and consider short - term long trading. Partial position - building is suggested for the RU2601 long and RU2609 short hedge [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 32 yuan to 4638 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4540 (- 20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 98 (+ 12) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 301 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall operating rate increased [12]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply, weak demand, and a weak export outlook. Look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies in the medium term [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The BZN spread decreased, and the profit of non - integrated styrene plants decreased. The upstream operating rate decreased, and the port inventory of styrene decreased [16]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room to repair. The supply of pure benzene is ample, and the port inventory of styrene is decreasing. The price may stop falling in the short term [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 65 yuan to 6814 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased [19]. - **Strategy**: The PE valuation has limited downside, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. It's expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 69 yuan to 6491 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 50 yuan. The upstream operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased [21]. - **Strategy**: There is high supply pressure and the overall inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts and the supply - surplus situation in the cost end suppress the price [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 6650 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged. The load in China increased, while that in Asia decreased. Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation status. The import from South Korea in October increased, and the inventory increased in September [25]. - **Strategy**: The PX load is high, the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations, and the PXN is expected to face pressure in November. It's recommended to wait and see for now [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 4600 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased. The PTA load decreased, and some plants had changes in operation status. The downstream load increased, and the social inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to decrease in November, and the demand may remain high. There is a risk of negative feedback due to low processing fees. Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 13 yuan to 3914 yuan, while the spot price in East China decreased. The supply - side load increased, and the downstream load increased. The port inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy**: The supply is high, the port inventory is increasing, and it's expected to continue accumulating in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to short on rallies [30].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the US non-manufacturing PMI in October, which stood at 52.4, exceeding expectations and previous values, leading to a collective rise in major US stock indices [1] - The US stock market saw the Nasdaq increase by 0.65%, the Dow Jones by 0.48%, and the S&P 500 by 0.37%, indicating a favorable market response to the PMI data [1] - Domestic futures markets showed mixed results, with certain commodities like coking coal and various agricultural products experiencing gains, while others like propylene and asphalt saw declines [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the performance of major stock indices, noting a recovery after a previous decline, with the electric equipment sector leading gains and the computer sector lagging [2] - The financing balance decreased by 3.32 billion yuan to 24.73687 trillion yuan, indicating a potential shift in market liquidity [2] - The article emphasizes the long-term focus on technology self-reliance as part of the 14th Five-Year Plan, suggesting that the technology sector will be a key investment direction [2] Group 3 - The article reports on the shipping market, specifically the European container shipping index, which rose by 3.82% to surpass 1900 points, reflecting positive macroeconomic sentiment [3] - The average price for large containers in early November stabilized around 2200 USD, with expectations for price adjustments based on seasonal demand [3] - The article notes that the glass and soda ash markets are in a phase of inventory digestion, with cautious market sentiment prevailing [3][19] Group 4 - The article highlights the significant growth in China's new energy storage capacity, which has exceeded 100 million kilowatts, representing a more than 30-fold increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [8] - The article mentions that this capacity now accounts for over 40% of the global total, positioning China as a leader in this sector [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly declining. The price center of the contract during the session moved slightly below the 14,850 yuan/ton line, and closed 0.74% lower at 14,850 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread widened to 95 yuan/ton. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market returned to a market dominated by supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rebounding from oversold conditions, and slightly rising. The price reached a high of 2,150 yuan/ton and a low of 2,089 yuan/ton, and closed 0.94% higher at 2,141 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread widened to 95 yuan/ton. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals of domestic methanol, it is expected that the 2601 contract may maintain a weak pattern in the future [6]. - On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly declining. The price reached a high of 465.6 yuan/barrel and a low of 459.0 yuan/barrel, and closed 0.32% lower at 463.7 yuan/barrel. With the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in South America, the premium of domestic and foreign crude oil futures has increased. Meanwhile, OPEC will suspend capacity expansion in the first quarter of next year, and the supply expectation has changed, boosting the confidence of oil market bulls [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 447,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,400 tons or 3.57%. The bonded area inventory was 68,300 tons, a decrease of 0.58%, and the general trade inventory was 379,400 tons, an increase of 4.36%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.79 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.79 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 4.30 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.49 percentage points [9]. - In the week of October 31, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.4%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.56 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.90 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points and a slight year - on - year decrease of 3.20 percentage points [9]. - In October 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released that the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in October 2025 was 50.7%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [10]. - In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. This has been the seventh consecutive month of year - on - year positive growth since April this year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000, and it is certain that the annual sales will exceed one million, and there is even a possibility of reaching 1.1 million [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.88%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.67%, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.17%, and a slight increase of 1.78% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9681 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 24,600 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 95,400 tons, and a significant increase of 85,100 tons compared with 1.883 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.98%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 9.79%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 72.32%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.29%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 56.50%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 84.18%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.27 percentage points and a slight month - on - month increase of 1.15% [11]. - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures contract's on - paper profit was 10 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week recovery of 164 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month rebound of 142 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 1.2829 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 13,100 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons, and a significant increase of 261,900 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory reached 360,400 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 40,400 tons, and a significant decrease of 76,500 tons compared with 436,900 tons in the same period last year [12][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 420, a slight week - on - week decrease of 6 and a decrease of 65 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of October 24, 2025, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.644 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 15,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 144,000 barrels per day, reaching a historical high [15]. - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) in the United States reached 416 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6.858 million barrels and a significant decrease of 9.543 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, the United States, reached 22.565 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.334 million barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 409.1 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 533,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 86.6%, a slight week - on - week decline of 2.0 percentage points, a significant month - on - month decrease of 4.8 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year decline of 2.5 percentage points [15]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 102,958 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts compared with the average of 122,063 contracts in August, a decline of 15.65%. Meanwhile, as of October 28, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 173,887 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 122,096 contracts and a significant decrease of 42,468 contracts compared with the average of 216,355 contracts in September, a decline of 19.63% [16]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,350 yuan/ton | - 300 yuan/ton | 14,850 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | - 500 yuan/ton | - 275 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,100 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | 2,141 yuan/ton | + 26 yuan/ton | - 41 yuan/ton | - 51 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 434.7 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 465.2 yuan/barrel | + 1.7 yuan/barrel | - 30.5 yuan/barrel | - 1.6 yuan/barrel | [18] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: includes charts of rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [19][21][23] - Methanol: includes charts of methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [32][34][36] - Crude Oil: includes charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [45][47][49]