Industrial Growth - The industrial added value of scale enterprises in Sichuan increased by 7.2% year-on-year, outpacing the national growth rate by 0.9 percentage points [1][3] - Among 41 major industrial sectors, 35 sectors achieved year-on-year growth, indicating a stable growth landscape [3][4] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a significant increase in added value, growing by 19.8% year-on-year [1][3] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sectors experienced a 15.0% year-on-year growth in added value [1][3] - Production of smartwatches and integrated circuits surged by 109.3% and 13.2% year-on-year, respectively [1][3] - Lithium-ion battery production increased by 50.5% year-on-year, reflecting a strong demand for green technologies [1][3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in Sichuan grew by 2.0% year-on-year, surpassing the national average by 0.4 percentage points [7][8] - Investment in six major advantageous industries rose by 10.7% year-on-year, accounting for 32.0% of total investment, which is an increase of 2.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [8][9] - High-tech manufacturing investment increased by 7.8% year-on-year, outpacing overall manufacturing investment growth by 1.1 percentage points [8][9] - Investment in the clean energy sector saw a remarkable growth of 22.3% year-on-year, indicating a shift towards sustainable energy solutions [8][9] Consumer Market Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Sichuan reached 16,513.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, exceeding the national growth rate by 0.8 percentage points [1][6] - In July, retail and catering revenues from enterprises above designated size grew by 34.7% and 29.3% year-on-year, respectively, showcasing a robust recovery in consumer spending [5][6] - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted sales, with communication equipment retail sales increasing by 103.0% year-on-year in July [6]

Economic Performance - The industrial added value of large-scale industries in Sichuan increased by 7.2% year-on-year, outpacing the national growth rate by 0.9 percentage points [1] - In July, the industrial added value grew by 7.6% year-on-year, exceeding the national average by 1.9 percentage points [1] - Among 41 major industrial categories, 35 experienced growth, indicating a stable growth rate of over 80% across industries [1] Key Industries - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a significant increase in added value, growing by 19.8% year-on-year [1] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries reported a 15.0% increase in added value [1] - Production of smartwatches and integrated circuits surged by 109.3% and 13.2% respectively [1] - Lithium-ion battery production rose by 50.5% year-on-year [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in Sichuan grew by 2.0% year-on-year, surpassing the national growth rate by 0.4 percentage points [1] - Investment in six key advantageous industries increased by 10.7%, accounting for 32.0% of total investment, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the previous year [1] - High-tech manufacturing investment rose by 7.8%, outpacing overall manufacturing investment by 1.1 percentage points [1] - Clean energy industry investment saw a substantial increase of 22.3% [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Sichuan reached 16,513.2 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - In July, retail and catering revenues from large enterprises through public networks grew by 34.7% and 29.3% year-on-year respectively [1] - The "old-for-new" policy had a notable impact, with retail sales of communication equipment increasing by 103.0% year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Shen Jiawen, a "post-90s" individual and daughter of the former chairman, as the new chairman of Liyuan Technology marks a significant transition in the company following the legal issues faced by her father, Shen Wanzhong [3][5][8]. Group 1: Appointment Details - Liyuan Technology announced the election of Shen Jiawen as the chairman of the fourth board of directors, effective immediately [5]. - Shen Jiawen has a background in finance, having previously worked as the compliance and risk control head at Huatai-PineBridge Investments [7]. - She holds a master's degree in economics from the University of Southern California and dual bachelor's degrees in applied mathematics and economics from the University of California, Berkeley [7]. Group 2: Background Context - The transition to Shen Jiawen's leadership is closely linked to her father's sentencing for the crime of disclosing important information improperly, resulting in a one-year prison sentence with a one-and-a-half-year probation and a fine of 3.3 million yuan [8]. - Shen Wanzhong resigned from his positions in the company, paving the way for his daughter's appointment [9]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The trend of fund industry professionals transitioning to operational roles in companies is becoming more common, with several notable examples, including Liang Feng from Putailai and Wang Shijia from Lihai Food [10][11]. - This shift indicates a growing trend of younger professionals from the finance sector taking on leadership roles in industrial companies [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is gradually turning rational, and the disk trends are starting to weaken. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, commodity prices may be difficult to maintain the current level, and the disk prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [25]. - Policy - related emotional disturbances will continue to interfere with the disk, but ultimately, prices will move closer to the fundamentals after the emotions fade, which will take some time [31]. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial Index Futures - The central bank will focus on the supply - side in its financial policies, aiming to create effective demand with high - quality supply and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. Southbound funds had a record - high net purchase of HK$358.76 billion [2]. - The current policy is favorable to the capital market. After recent continuous increases, the market may experience intensified short - term fluctuations, but the general strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - In July, industrial added - value and social consumption showed growth, while real estate investment and new housing sales declined. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - The economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, and the central bank is maintaining a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term [6]. Precious Metals - US inflation data rebounded, and there are differences among Fed officials regarding inflation. The market is highly expecting a Fed rate cut. The speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium will significantly affect precious metal prices [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Although US inflation data rebounded, the market has strong rate - cut expectations. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the overall copper price may consolidate and wait for further macro - level drivers [10]. Aluminum - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a relatively low level, and the export data is strong, which supports the aluminum price. However, weak downstream consumption and fluctuating trade situations may cause the aluminum price to fluctuate and decline in the short - term [11]. Zinc - The zinc market is in an oversupply situation, with domestic social inventories increasing rapidly and overseas registered warehouse receipts at a low level. Zinc prices still face significant downward risks [13]. Lead - The lead market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with slow inventory accumulation. Lead prices are expected to be weak [14]. Nickel - The short - term macro - environment is positive, driving nickel prices to rebound slightly, but weak downstream demand may cause prices to correct [15]. Tin - The supply of tin is currently tight, and demand is weak during the off - season. As Myanmar's production resumes, tin prices are expected to fluctuate [17]. Carbonate Lithium - The market expects a significant supply shortage of domestic carbonate lithium in the second half of the year, but the actual reduction in supply depends on the mining end. The current price increase may attract more supply, and investors are advised to be cautious [18]. Alumina - There are continuous disturbances in the supply of domestic and foreign ores, but the over - capacity pattern of alumina remains unchanged. It is recommended to short at high prices [19]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a state of weak demand and may continue to consolidate in the short - term [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The downstream of casting aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although the cost side provides some support, the upward resistance of prices is increasing [22]. Black Building Materials Steel - The steel market has weak demand and insufficient demand support. If demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of terminal demand and the support of the cost side [25]. Iron Ore - Currently, the supply pressure of iron ore is not significant, but the profitability of steel mills is declining, and terminal demand is weakening. Iron ore prices may adjust slightly in the short - term [27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass production is increasing, inventory pressure is rising, and demand is weak. In the short - term, glass prices are expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, they will follow macro - level emotions. Soda ash production is increasing, and inventory pressure is rising, but the price center may gradually rise in the long - term [28][29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The over - capacity pattern of manganese silicon remains unchanged, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand for ferrosilicon and manganese silicon may weaken in the future. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while hedging funds can seize opportunities [30][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The over - capacity and high - inventory problems of industrial silicon remain unresolved. Although demand provides some support in August, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The polysilicon market has a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The rubber market has different views from bulls and bears. The short - term increase in rubber prices is large, and it is recommended to wait and see neutrally and consider band - trading strategies [38][41]. Crude Oil - Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is undervalued, and there is an opportunity for left - hand side layout [42]. Methanol - The supply pressure of methanol is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. Urea - The supply of urea is relatively loose, and demand is average. The price is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and it is recommended to focus on long - position opportunities at low prices [44]. Styrene - The BZN spread of styrene is expected to repair, and port inventories are decreasing. Styrene prices may rise with the cost side [45]. PVC - The PVC market has strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, and demand is gradually recovering, but the inventory is increasing. The fundamentals are weakening, and the short - term valuation may decline [49]. PTA - The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and demand needs improvement. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities with PX at low prices during the peak season [50]. p - Xylene - The load of PX is high, and downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance operations. PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and the valuation has support but limited upward space [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - The price of PE may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short positions [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - The supply and demand of PP are weak, and the cost side may dominate the market. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly with the oil price [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The supply and demand of live pigs are expected to increase in the third quarter. The market may fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to buy at low prices in the short - term, pay attention to upper - level pressure in the medium - term, and use reverse - spread strategies for far - month contracts [56]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but it is currently the peak season, and egg prices are expected to rise slightly after stabilizing. In the medium - term, it is recommended to sell on rebounds [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The USDA has reduced the soybean planting area, which is bullish for CBOT soybeans in the short - term. The import cost of soybeans is stable and slightly rising. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range of soybean meal [58][59]. Edible Oils - The fundamentals of edible oils are supported, but the upward space is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly [62]. Sugar - The international sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic import supply is increasing. Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64]. Cotton - The cotton price is affected by positive news but has weak downstream consumption. In the short - term, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economic data shows resilience, but inflation expectations are rising, and the future inflation pressure still faces upward risks. The short - term gold price is in a weak shock, and the US dollar index is in a high - level shock. The Chinese stock market may continue to rise in the short - term, but there are risks of high - level fluctuations. The prices of various commodities have different trends, with some expected to be in a shock pattern, some to rise, and some to fall [14][18][21] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the US in August was 58.6, lower than expected. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations increased. The retail sales in July rebounded as expected, and the previous value was revised upward. The short - term gold price is in a weak shock, and investors should pay attention to the callback risk [13][14][15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - Trump and Putin met, and EU and NATO leaders will go to Washington. The US - Russia talks did not reach an agreement. The US may put pressure on Ukraine for "territory for peace". The US dollar index is expected to be in a high - level shock [16][18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's economic data in July declined. The stock market's upward trend deviated from the economic fundamentals slightly. It may continue to rise in the short - term, but there are risks of high - level fluctuations. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [20][21][22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US consumer confidence declined, inflation expectations rose, and the economy showed a slight stagflation trend. The Fed's future interest - rate cut rhythm is uncertain. The market risk preference is supported, but the risk of inflation rebound may increase market volatility [24][25][26] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's economic data in July declined comprehensively. The demand is weak, and the bond market environment is not optimistic. If the stock market rises rapidly, the interest - rate center may rise. It is recommended to pay attention to short - hedging strategies [27][28][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in Beigang was stable on August 15. The coal price is expected to enter the seasonal off - season, and attention should be paid to the downward space and its impact on market sentiment [30][31][32] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The production of India's NMDC in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 increased significantly. The iron ore price is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short - term, and the iron water may decline slightly [33][34][36] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations, and the export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15 increased by 16.5%. The palm oil price is expected to continue to rise, and it is recommended to go long. The international soybean oil price is affected by policies, and the domestic soybean oil price is expected to rise [37][38] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in July reached a six - month high. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant. Attention should be paid to Sino - US relations and US soybean production areas' weather [39][41] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India's cotton inventory and demand in the 2024/25 season increased. Brazil's cotton production was slightly adjusted down. The new - year US cotton export signing was okay, but the overall progress was slow. The short - term cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock, and the Zhengzhou cotton price may be in a strong shock in the short - term but not optimistic in the fourth quarter [42][43][46] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's port sugar waiting to be shipped decreased. The sugar production in the central and southern regions decreased slightly, but the sugar - making ratio reached a new high. The international sugar price is expected to be in a weak shock in the short - term, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be in a shock pattern, with the 1 - month contract suitable for buying on dips [47][50][52] 3.2.7 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korean steel mills applied for an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese steel products. China's steel production in July decreased year - on - year, and real estate investment declined. The steel price is expected to be in a weak shock, and attention should be paid to the actual demand [53][54][57] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The cassava starch inventory is high and difficult to reduce. The starch supply - demand is weak. The CS09 - C09 spread is affected by different factors at different times [58][59] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions increased slightly. The corn inventory is not loose. The 11 and 01 contracts may have a downward space, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 3 reverse spread [60] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Two batches of alumina in Western Australia were traded. The alumina industry profit is good, and the supply is slowly increasing, with the futures price under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [61][62] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Shanghai nickel futures inventory increased. The macro - environment has uncertainties, and the nickel market supply and demand have different characteristics. Different strategies can be considered for different time horizons [63][64][65] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Antofagasta expects its medium - term copper production to increase by more than 30%. The LME promotes market structure reform. The macro - factors support the copper price in stages, but there are risks of repetition. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread [66][67][68] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sigma Lithium's lithium production increased in the second quarter, and the cost decreased. The lithium carbonate price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to buying on dips [69][70] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There are rumors of a shortage and price increase of photovoltaic components. The polysilicon inventory increased, and the production is expected to rise. The short - term price is expected to be in a shock pattern, and different strategies can be considered for long and short positions [71][73][74] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang increased slightly. The overall supply and demand are in a state of de - stocking, but there are uncertainties. It is recommended to go long on dips [75][76] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread is at a discount. The lead supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [77][78] 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread is at a discount. The external market has structural risks, and the domestic market is in a state of inventory accumulation. Different strategies can be considered for different trading angles [79] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price decreased slightly. The carbon price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short - term [80][81] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs increased. Trump said not to impose tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil for the time being. The short - term oil price is expected to be in a range - bound shock [82][83][84] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The caustic soda market is expected to be in a shock pattern [85][86] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp market is mostly stable, and the short - term pulp price is expected to be in a shock pattern [87][88] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market is in a weak adjustment. The PVC price is expected to be in a shock pattern [89] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX market is in a light trading atmosphere. The PX price is expected to be in a shock adjustment in the short - term [90][91][92] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis is stable. The PTA price is expected to be in a shock adjustment in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the demand change from the off - season to the peak season [92][93][94] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export price is stable with a slight increase. The bottle chip price follows the polyester raw materials' price, and the industry's production reduction effect is gradually emerging [95][96][98] 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in South China is weak and stable. The soda ash price is expected to have large fluctuations, and investors should manage their positions well [99] 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in Hubei decreased. The glass price is expected to be in a shock pattern, and it is recommended to focus on arbitrage operations [100] 3.2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The US container imports in July increased sharply. The container freight rate is expected to continue to decline, and the previous 10 - month short positions can be held,，and attention should be paid to the National Day empty - flight situation [101][103][104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the trading volume of commodity options increased slightly, mainly due to the increment brought by the rising volatility of the agricultural products sector. Meanwhile, the trading volume of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased along with the decline of implied volatility. The implied volatility of non - ferrous sector options is at a relatively low level recently, and buying options for price reversal trading can be considered [5]. - The options of contracts such as soybean meal, corn, starch, iron ore, liquefied gas, polypropylene, PVC, plastic, palm oil, soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean oil, styrene, ethylene glycol, eggs, live pigs, and log 509 are about to expire. Attention should be paid to the end - of - month risks when changing contracts [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of commodity options increased slightly last week, mainly due to the increment from the agricultural products sector. The trading volume of non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased, and their implied volatility also declined. The implied volatility of non - ferrous sector options is at a recent low [5]. - The options of certain contracts are about to expire, and attention should be paid to the end - of - month risks [5]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of the overall market this week was 8,808,344.8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.17%. The open interest was 8,996,228, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.27%. Among them, the trading volume of the agricultural products sector increased by 2.45%, that of the energy and chemical sector increased by 0.17%, that of the black sector increased by 0.4%, and that of the precious metals sector increased by 1.26%. The trading volume of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased by 1.82%. The open interest of the agricultural products sector decreased by 0.1%, that of the energy and chemical sector decreased by 0.55%, that of the black sector decreased by 0.19%, and that of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors increased by 0.41% [6]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.55 Various Option Market Data - For each type of option (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), detailed data on trading volume, open interest, volume PCR, open interest PCR, at - the - money volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew are provided, including data for this week, last week, and their changes [12 - 44]. 3.3 Chart Analysis No relevant content provided.

Group 1 - The company has approved a share repurchase plan with a budget between RMB 400 million and RMB 600 million, with a maximum repurchase price of RMB 12.01 per share, valid for up to 12 months from the approval date [2] - After the implementation of the 2024 annual profit distribution plan, the maximum repurchase price was adjusted to RMB 11.82 per share [2] Group 2 - As of August 14, 2025, the company has repurchased 27,906,500 shares, representing 2.06% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of RMB 242.44 million, excluding transaction fees [3] - The highest repurchase price recorded was RMB 9.14 per share, while the lowest was RMB 8.30 per share [3] - The company will continue to make repurchase decisions based on market conditions and will fulfill its information disclosure obligations in a timely manner [3]

Group 1 - The company announced a share repurchase plan with a total expected amount between 400 million yuan and 600 million yuan [1][2] - As of August 14, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 27.9065 million shares, representing 2.06% of the total share capital [2] - The actual repurchase price ranged from 8.30 yuan to 9.14 yuan per share [1] Group 2 - The repurchase plan was first disclosed on April 10, 2025, and the implementation period is set for 12 months following the approval at the 2024 annual shareholders' meeting [1] - The maximum repurchase price was adjusted from 12.01 yuan to 11.82 yuan per share [1] - The repurchased shares will be used for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives [1]

浙江嘉化能源化工股份有限公司公告以集中竞价交易方式回购股份进展。2025年4月相关会议通过回购 议案，预计回购4 - 6亿元股份，用途为减少注册资本、员工持股等。经2024年利润分配方案调整，回购 价格上限调为不超11.82元/股。截至8月14日，累计回购2790.65万股，占总股本2.06%，累计已回购金额 24244.28万元，实际回购价8.30 - 9.14元/股。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US PPI in July increased significantly, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations cooled, causing the US dollar index to rebound and global risk appetite to decline. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in July decreased, and economic growth slowed, but policies may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period reduced short - term tariff risks, leading to an increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends. Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term; bonds may oscillate and correct at a high level; in the commodity sector, black metals may have greater short - term fluctuations, non - ferrous metals may oscillate, energy and chemicals may oscillate weakly, and precious metals may oscillate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Finance - **Macro Situation**: US July PPI increased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years, indicating potential inflation. Fed officials refuted the expectation of a significant rate cut in September. China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the trade deficit decreased, weakening the contribution of net exports to the economy. Policies such as the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period reduced short - term tariff risks [2]. - **Asset Performance**: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, with a cautious long - position strategy. Bonds may oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the commodity sector, black metals may have greater short - term fluctuations, non - ferrous metals may oscillate, energy and chemicals may oscillate weakly, and precious metals may oscillate at a high level, all with a cautious approach [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - **Market Movement**: The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as armament restructuring, rail transit equipment, and components. The economic growth in July slowed, but policies may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations, with an enhanced short - term upward macro - drive [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term cautious long - position, but beware of high - level correction risks [4]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel**: The decline of steel futures and spot prices widened on Thursday, with reduced trading volume. Real - world demand weakened, inventory increased by 400,000 tons week - on - week, and apparent consumption decreased. Supply of rebar was relatively low, and plate production was stable. There were rumors of production control in Cangzhou. Iron - water production may further decline. It is advisable to view the steel market as oscillating weakly in the short term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline of iron ore futures and spot prices widened on Thursday. With an approaching important event, iron - water production may decline. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 151,000 tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 1.259 million tons. Port inventory was accumulating, and supply pressure increased. Iron ore prices may weaken periodically [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, but the futures prices declined significantly. Manganese ore prices slightly increased, and there was an expectation of new silicon - manganese production capacity. Some silicon - iron enterprises had profits and high production enthusiasm. The downstream was waiting for steel mill pricing and had a strong willingness to replenish inventory. Iron - alloy prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On Thursday, the main soda - ash contract oscillated. Supply increased week - on - week, and the pattern of oversupply remained unchanged, with new device launches expected in the fourth quarter. Demand support was weak, and profit decreased week - on - week. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, with limited upward price space [7]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the main glass contract oscillated. Glass daily melting volume remained stable week - on - week, and there were expectations of production cuts due to anti - involution policies. Terminal real - estate demand was weak but slightly improved. Glass profit decreased week - on - week. Glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US economy is slowing, and the risk of recession exists. Copper - mine production growth is higher than expected, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper - price trend may not last [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, the aluminum closing price declined slightly. Aluminum's fundamentals weakened, with domestic social inventory increasing by nearly 140,000 tons and LME inventory increasing by 137,000 tons from the low in mid - June. The medium - term upward space is limited, and short - term attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [10][11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses and production cuts. It is in the demand off - season, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. The supply of tin ore is expected to ease. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory decreased by 90 tons to 10,235 tons. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space due to risks and weak demand [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, lithium carbonate oscillated sharply. The main 2511 contract increased by 0.28%. The supply of the Jiangxi Ningde Times Jiaxiawo Mine stopped, causing a short - term supply shortage. The subsequent uncertainty lies in whether the remaining mines can complete the ore - type change by September 30 [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the main 2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 1.14%. Pay attention to the impact of coking coal and polysilicon sentiment and the cash - flow cost support [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the main 2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 3.08%. The number of warehouse receipts increased, reflecting stronger hedging and delivery intentions. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and pay attention to the possibility of a weakening market [14]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang was weak, and the basis was strong. The inventory in Chinese ports and production enterprises increased. Supply - side maintenance was concentrated, and there were rumors of coking production cuts in Shandong. The supply was expected to decrease, and demand was boosted by the restart of inland olefin plants. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, but there were regional differences. The price is expected to oscillate [15][16]. - **PP**: The spot market of PP oscillated and declined. The inventory of two major petrochemical companies decreased. Crude - oil prices decreased, improving PP cost - profit, and new production capacity was planned to be launched in mid - to - late August. Demand was in the off - season, and industrial inventory increased. The 09 contract price may have limited fluctuations, and the 01 contract is currently considered weak. Pay attention to oil - price fluctuations [16]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE was slightly adjusted. The weekly production increased by 0.14% and is expected to decrease by 3.49% next week. Demand showed signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak. Pay attention to demand and inventory replenishment [17]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1031, down 13.25 or 1.27%. The net export sales of the current - market - year US soybeans decreased by 377,600 tons in the week ending August 7, while the next - market - year net export sales increased by 1.133 million tons [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: After the preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed dumping, rapeseed meal drove up the premium sentiment of soybean meal. The export price of Brazilian soybeans increased. The short - term cost drove up soybean meal prices, but the domestic inventory was accumulating, and the downstream demand was weak. If China imports US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed meal, the premium will decline [18][19]. - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed - oil port inventory was high and difficult to deplete, and the supply was expected to shrink. The cost of soybean oil was stable, and the supply - demand situation would improve in the fourth quarter. Palm - oil inventory in Malaysia was accumulating, and export demand was expected to improve. Indonesian and Indian inventories were low. Domestic rapeseed oil was affected by policy news. The overall valuation of oils and fats was slightly high. Pay attention to the supplementary increase of soybean oil and consider the strategy of buying soybean oil and shorting palm oil [19]. - **Corn**: The price of Northeast corn was weak, and market transactions were inactive. Enterprises in North China planned to reduce inventory. Corn will be listed in Anhui and Xinjiang in late August, and the supply is expected to be sufficient. The corn futures market was weak [20]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price in the benchmark area is stable at 13.5 - 13.8 yuan/kg. Large - scale pig farms have almost completed weight - reduction, and the entry of secondary fattening has increased. With the cooling weather, demand is expected to improve, and pig prices may rebound [20].