3/4 21:15 美国2月ADP就业人数 3/6 21:30 美国2月非农就业人数、失业率、劳动参与率 3/4-3/11 全国政协十四届四次会议 3/5—— 十四届全国人大四次会议 重点关注 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 股指期货全景日报 2026/3/4 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2603） | 最新 4591.0 | 环比 数据指标 -53.8↓ IF次主力合约（2606） | 最新 4540.0 | 环比 -58.8↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2603） IC主力合约（2603） | 2972.2 8219.4 | -40.2↓ IH次主力合约（2606） -50.8↓ IC次主力合约（2606） | 2963.2 8075.8 | -41.4↓ -64.8↓ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 8064.2 | -73.6↓ IM次主力合约（2606） | 7875.0 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The apple fundamentals are strong. The cold storage inventory of apples is at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. As of February 27, 2026, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 5.5292 million tons, a decrease of 190,800 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 181,100 tons, with a decline of 3.2%. The inventory is only higher than that in the 2018/19 fruit season. Although the apple price is relatively high this fruit season, the pre - Spring Festival shipment and warehousing situation is acceptable. After the Spring Festival, from March to April is a relatively off - season for other fruits to be on the market, and the recent apple shipment situation has improved, with the inventory removal speed accelerating compared to last week. As March enters the delivery month, the market pays attention to whether the cold - storage apples can meet the delivery requirements and the cost of making warehouse receipts. The fundamentals of the May contract of apples are indeed strong, but the price of the May contract has increased significantly today, and there may be some profit - taking orders for closing positions. It is necessary to be cautious when chasing high. It is recommended to build long positions after a pullback [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index is 107.22, with a change of - 0.30 compared to the next working day. The prices of various types of apples such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, etc., remain unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.97, with no change [3]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 is 8596, up 68 from the previous close; AP05 is 10449, up 166 from the previous close; AP10 is 8748, up 104 from the previous close. The spreads between different contracts also have corresponding changes, such as AP01 - AP05 is - 1853, down 98; AP05 - AP10 is 1701, up 62; AP10 - AP01 is 152, up 36 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 compared to different contracts has decreased. For example, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 596, down 68; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 is - 748.0, down 104; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP05 is - 2449, down 166 [3]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Apple Market News**: As of February 27, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 5.5292 million tons, a decrease of 190,800 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 181,100 tons, with a decline of 3.2%. In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume in December 2025 was 3100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. In the western production area, the prices of some specifications of goods have increased slightly due to more customers looking at the goods and good enthusiasm for purchasing high - quality goods. The mainstream market in the Shandong production area is stable, with the quoted prices of high - quality goods of individual storage merchants slightly increased, but the actual transaction prices have not changed significantly. The market arrival is good, the shipment is stable, and the price is stable. The prices of apples in Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan and Shandong Yantai Qixia are stable, and the transaction is smooth [8]. - **Trading Logic**: The apple fundamentals are strong. The cold - storage inventory is low, the pre - Spring Festival shipment is acceptable, and the post - Spring Festival shipment has improved. As March enters the delivery month, the market focuses on delivery requirements and warehouse - receipt costs. The May contract has strong fundamentals, but the price increase today is large, so it is necessary to be cautious when chasing high. It is recommended to build long positions after a pullback [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side strategy, go long on the May contract on dips; for the arbitrage strategy, go long on the May contract and short on the October contract; for the option strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [9]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report provides 10 figures, including the price trends of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, the basis of AP contracts, the spreads between different AP contracts, the arrival volume of apples in wholesale markets, the prices of 6 kinds of fruits, the cold - storage inventory of apples across the country, and the cold - storage apple outbound volume, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information [11][12][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market opened high and trended lower, with prices falling during the day. After the impact of the geopolitical conflict in Iran on coal was realized, the market is expected to gradually return to a supply - demand - relaxed fundamental situation. If there is no change in the macro - sentiment, the market is expected to be under pressure. The downstream steel mills' resumption of work and production is slow, and there is an expectation of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts for coke [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical factors: US President Trump announced that the White House would provide naval escort and political risk insurance for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran claimed full control of the strait. After the impact on coal was realized, the market declined [1]. - Fundamental factors: Domestic mines are gradually resuming work, with the operating load increasing by 20%. After the holiday, the inventory of coking coal mines increased by 6.04 tons. Independent coking enterprises and steel mills have been destocking for two consecutive weeks after the Spring Festival. After the festival, steel mills have slightly recovered, with the molten iron output increasing by 2.79 tons. During the Two Sessions, steel mill emissions reduction may interfere with short - term operations. New real - estate stimulus policies have been introduced in many places, and the performance of the terminal market needs further attention [1]. Spot Data - Spot prices: The self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 coking raw coal is 1040 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The closing price of the main futures contract is 1097 yuan/ton, and the basis in Shanxi Jiexiu is 173 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply data: From February 21st to February 27th, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 68.24%, a month - on - month increase of 19.35 percentage points; the daily average output of refined coking coal was 64.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.02 tons [4]. - Demand data: From February 21st to February 27th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 64.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 tons; the daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 tons. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 233.28 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79 tons [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - As of the close on March 4, 2026, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shipping routes to Europe, SC crude oil, and fuel oil hit the daily limit for the third consecutive day. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 11%, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and polypropylene (PP) rose over 5%. On the other hand, tin futures fell over 5%, and polysilicon, platinum, silver, and gold futures also declined significantly. The prices and trends of various futures contracts were affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand changes, and seasonal factors [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - **Gainers**: Shipping routes to Europe, SC crude oil, and fuel oil hit the daily limit for three consecutive days. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 11%, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and polypropylene (PP) rose over 5%, and plastics and propylene rose nearly 4% [5]. - **Losers**: Tin futures fell over 5%, and polysilicon, platinum, silver, and gold futures fell over 4%, 4%, 4%, and 3% respectively. Stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, also declined, while most treasury bond futures rose, except for the 30-year treasury bond futures [5][6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:19 on March 4, funds flowed into aluminum, fuel oil, and 10-year treasury bond futures, while large amounts of funds flowed out of gold, CSI, and CSI 1000 futures [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - Copper prices opened low and rose slightly but remained weak. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increased inflation expectations and reduced the likelihood of the Fed's interest rate cuts, putting pressure on non-ferrous metals. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year. It is expected to reach a record high in March. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the demand for scrap copper is expected to rise, and the supply gap may be filled by overseas imports. High copper prices have led to strong resistance from downstream consumers, and the demand for copper products is expected to remain weak [8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened and closed lower. The average price of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate decreased. Production is expected to decline in February due to seasonal and holiday factors. The overall inventory has decreased, and the fundamentals are short-term tight. The conflict between the United States and Iran has affected the delivery of energy storage batteries in the Middle East, and the export of terminals has been impacted. Although the peak season is approaching, the increase in demand is limited, and the price has some support [10]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and further production increase plans are to be determined. EIA data showed a significant build-up of crude oil inventories in the United States. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have led to disruptions in oil transportation and production. Iraq has cut production, and Qatar has stopped LNG production. Trump's offer to provide insurance and escort for oil tankers has caused oil prices to fluctuate. It is expected that oil prices will remain strong in the near term, and the situation in the Middle East will have a significant impact on oil price volatility [11][12]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased slightly last week and is at a low level compared to previous years. In March, domestic asphalt production is expected to increase month-on-month but decrease year-on-year. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries are gradually resuming work, but the overall demand remains weak. The inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level, but the market is worried about a shortage of raw materials in March due to geopolitical factors. It is expected that asphalt prices will follow the increase in crude oil prices [13][15]. 3.2.5 PP - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased seasonally, and the enterprise开工率 remained at a relatively low level. The proportion of standard-grade wire production increased. After the Spring Festival, the inventory of petrochemical enterprises has been decreasing and is currently at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has boosted the price of PP. Although the domestic supply and demand situation has improved slightly, the market expects a rebound in the chemical industry. It is expected that PP prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [16]. 3.2.6 Plastic - The开工率 of plastic increased after the restart of some maintenance devices and is currently at a neutral to high level. The downstream开工率 of PE decreased seasonally, and the inventory of petrochemical enterprises has been decreasing and is at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has had a positive impact on the price of plastic. Although the domestic supply and demand situation has improved slightly, the market expects a rebound in the chemical industry. The import of PE from Iran accounts for a small proportion of the total, but the import from the Middle East accounts for a relatively large proportion. It is expected that plastic prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [17][18]. 3.2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region continued to decline. The开工率 of PVC increased and is at a neutral to high level. After the Spring Festival, the downstream开工率 of PVC increased but is still lower than the same period last year. The export of PVC is expected to be low in March due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the anti-subsidy investigation by India. The social inventory of PVC is still high, and the real estate market continues to adjust. Although the PVC market has a weak reality, it has strong expectations due to policy and maintenance expectations. It is expected that PVC prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [19]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal prices opened high and closed low. Domestic mines are gradually resuming work, and the inventory of coking coal mines has increased. The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. After the Spring Festival, the production of molten iron in steel mills has increased slightly, but the reduction of emissions during the Two Sessions may affect short-term production. The real estate market has introduced some stimulus policies, but the performance of the terminal market still needs to be observed. After the impact of geopolitical conflicts in Iran on the coal market is realized, the price is expected to return to the fundamentals of loose supply and demand and will be under pressure if the macro sentiment remains stable [20][21]. 3.2.9 Urea - Urea prices opened high, fluctuated, and closed slightly higher. The trading volume decreased, and the price was relatively stable. The daily production of urea has reached around 220,000 tons, and there are no long-term shutdown and maintenance plans in the short term. After the Lantern Festival, compound fertilizer factories have resumed work, but the开工 rate in Hebei has been affected by environmental protection. The inventory of urea has started to decrease due to the continuation of agricultural demand and the increase in industrial demand. Although the international urea price is affected by the situation in the Middle East, it has little impact on the domestic market. The price of urea is expected to be range-bound, and attention should be paid to the possibility of a price increase driven by the energy and chemical sector [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In March, the bond market may be slightly affected by geopolitical conflicts, but the overall main line still revolves around the policy expectations of the Two Sessions. The supply pressure of government bonds is generally controllable, and the "weak recovery" pattern of the fundamentals has not been reversed, providing bottom support for the bond market. As the 2026 Two Sessions are about to begin, the market's game on policy expectations intensifies, which may bring periodic fluctuations. It is expected that the bond futures in March will continue the range - bound pattern [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价为108.555，环比上涨0.05%，成交量68845，较前一日增加8010；TF主力收盘价106.145，环比上涨0.08%，成交量60049，较前一日增加20957；TS主力收盘价102.518，环比上涨0.05%，成交量35956，较前一日增加11331；TL主力收盘价112.770，环比下跌0.03%，成交量62998，较前一日减少11958 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2606 - 2603价差为0.24，环比下降0.01；T2606 - 2603价差为0.02，环比上升0.01；TF2606 - 2603价差为0.10，环比上升0.00；TS2606 - 2603价差为0.01，环比上升0.02；T06 - TL06价差为 - 4.21，环比上升0.06；TF06 - T06价差为 - 2.41，环比上升0.02；TS06 - T06价差为 - 6.04，环比下降0.01；TS06 - TF06价差为 - 3.63，环比下降0.03 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量308558，较前一日增加7191；T前20名多头持仓264713，较前一日增加5397；T前20名空头持仓285631，较前一日增加6393；T前20名净持仓20918，较前一日增加996；TF主力持仓量161209，较前一日增加5872；TF前20名多头持仓143574，较前一日增加3751；TF前20名空头持仓165893，较前一日增加6851；TF前20名净持仓 - 22319，较前一日增加3100；TS主力持仓量68744，较前一日增加1836；TS前20名多头持仓56516，较前一日增加747；TS前20名空头持仓64831，较前一日增加2267；TS前20名净持仓8315，较前一日增加1520；TL主力持仓量134669，较前一日增加703；TL前20名多头持仓129986，较前一日减少115；TL前20名空头持仓141195，较前一日增加516；TL前20名净持仓 - 11209，较前一日增加631 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Net Price) - 230004.IB(6y）净价108.3879，环比上涨0.0485；250025.IB(6y）净价99.0955，环比上涨0.0543；250014.IB(4y）净价100.3246，环比上涨0.0689；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，环比上涨0.0366；250024.IB(1.6y)净价100.0529，环比上涨0.0281；250025.IB(1.6y)净价102.6471，环比上涨0.0188；220008.IB(17y)净价119.8304，环比上涨0.1109；220024.IB(18y)净价116.156，环比上涨0.1620 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1年期国债收益率1.2850%，环比下降0.75bp；3年期国债收益率1.3600%，环比下降0.50bp；5年期国债收益率1.5350%，环比上升0.50bp；7年期国债收益率1.6550%，环比上升0.40bp；10年期国债收益率1.7960%，环比上升0.50bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.2837%，环比上升3.61bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.2660%，环比下降0.10bp；银质押7天利率1.4268%，环比下降1.56bp；Shibor7天利率1.4150%，环比下降3.30bp；银质押14天利率1.4300%，环比下降1.75bp；Shibor14天利率1.4540%，环比下降4.40bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1年期LPR利率3.00%，环比无变化；5年期LPR利率3.5%，环比无变化 [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模0亿，到期规模4095亿，利率1.4%，期限7天，净回笼4095亿 [2] 3.9 Industry News - 国新办将于3月5日上午11时30分举行吹风会，解读《政府工作报告》并答记者问；十四届全国人大四次会议大会发言人表示中国经济顶压前行，向新向优发展，中国是外商理想、安全、有为的投资目的地；央行公布2026年2月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况，中期借贷便利（MLF）净投放3000亿元，7天期逆回购净回笼1205亿元，公开市场国债买卖净投放500亿元 [2] 3.10 Key Points to Watch - 3月6日21:30关注美国2月失业率、美国2月非农就业人口变动；3月5日十四届全国人大四次会议在北京召开 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - International corn market: The conflict between the US and Iran has intensified, boosting international corn prices. The high yield and sufficient supply of US corn in 2025 will suppress farmers' willingness to expand planting in 2026, with the planting area expected to decrease from 98.8 million acres in 2025 to 94 million acres in 2026 [2]. - Domestic corn market: In the Northeast, the post - holiday selling pressure has decreased, and farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Grain - using enterprises are actively replenishing stocks, and the purchase prices have been raised but the increase rate has slowed. In the North China - Huanghuai region, snow has led to stagnant corn trading, low supply, and increased purchase demand from processing enterprises. Corn futures prices have been rising strongly [2]. - Corn starch market: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has increased after the holiday, increasing supply pressure and inventory. As of March 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 121.9 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.35%. However, downstream demand has also recovered, and the supply - demand structure is acceptable. Supported by the strong corn market, the starch market has also shown a strong and volatile trend [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract was 2379 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton; the monthly spread (5 - 9) was - 6 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 215,253 hands, a decrease of 11,902 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 0 hands [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract was 2692 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72 yuan/ton; the monthly spread (3 - 5) was 14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 26,583 hands, a decrease of 1408 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 12,500 hands [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract was 446.25 cents/bushel; the total position was 1,656,135 contracts, a decrease of 123,787 contracts; the non - commercial net long position was 8828 contracts, an increase of 16,663 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price was 2403.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.1 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port was 2400 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn was 2009.64 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.33 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn was 1 US dollar/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang were 2670 yuan/ton, 2850 yuan/ton, and 2830 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged; the basis of the main contract was - 22 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton; the spread between Shandong starch and corn was 450 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Planting area and yield: The predicted planting areas in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine were 94 million acres, 36.93 million hectares, 53 million hectares, 44.96 million hectares, and an unspecified area respectively. The predicted yields were 432.34 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 301.24 million tons, and 29 million tons respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Corn inventories at southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises were 25.8 million tons, 221 million tons, and 385.2 million tons respectively. The starch enterprise inventory was 119.8 million tons, an increase of 8 million tons [2]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn was 80 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch was 16,740 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production: The monthly feed production volume was 30.086 million tons [2]. - Processing profit: The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin were - 38 yuan/ton, 39 yuan/ton, and - 96 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Operating rate: The operating rates of alcohol enterprises and starch enterprises were 54.46% and 45.68% respectively, with the latter increasing by 4.33 percentage points [2]. Option Market - Historical volatility: The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn were 8.11% and 7.33% respectively [2]. - Implied volatility: The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options on corn were 11.56% [2]. Industry News - The conflict between the US and Israel attacking Iran has increased freight and insurance costs, making the Asian agricultural product market highly nervous about the impact on trade [2]. - Brazil's CONAB reported that as of February 28, the planting progress of the second - season corn in the 2025/26 season was 64.9%, compared with 46.7% last week, 69.5% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 57.2% [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture stated that due to the record - high corn yield in the US in 2025, low prices, and sufficient supply, farmers' willingness to expand planting in 2026 will be suppressed [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the short - term, market liquidity tightening may increase the selling pressure in the precious metals market, but the escalating situation between the US and Iran may drive the safe - haven buying demand in the precious metals market, and there is strong support below. In the medium to long - term, the structural logic of deepening geopolitical rifts and weakening US dollar credit remains unchanged, and gold still has appeal as a preferred hedge asset. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 1,153.06 yuan/gram, down 28.9 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 21,854 yuan/kilogram, up 209 yuan. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 126,419 lots, down 13,351 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 5,406 lots, down 668 lots. - The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold is 418,498 lots, up 25,719 lots; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai Silver is 482,764 lots, down 115,387 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold is 105,033 kilograms, down 27 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver is 294,823 kilograms, down 12,661 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1,153.18 yuan, down 28.82 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No. 1 silver is 20,939 yuan, down 1,748 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 0.12 yuan/gram, up 0.12 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 915 yuan/gram, down 1,957 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings are 1,099.04 tons, down 2.29 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings are 15,981.38 tons, up 79.14 tons. - The non - commercial net long position of gold in CFTC is 159,177 contracts, down 738 contracts; the non - commercial net long position of silver in CFTC is 22,260 contracts, down 1,743 contracts. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,302.8 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 99.27, up 0.72; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.77, up 0.01. - The VIX volatility index is 23.57, up 2.13; the CBOE gold volatility indicator is 38.77, up 3.94. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 1.35, up 0.06; the gold - silver ratio is 61.91, up 5.75 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump vowed to "spare no expense" on the Iran issue, triggering a new round of stock selling, rising energy prices, and reigniting market inflation concerns. Traders' bets on the Fed's second interest rate cut within the year dropped to 50%. - The conflict in the Middle East continues to spread. Iran is counter - attacking while being bombed, claiming to have hit multiple US military targets in the Middle East. Israel launched a "massive strike" on Tehran, claiming to have destroyed many Iranian ballistic missile - related facilities. - Kevin Warsh, the nominee for Fed Chairman, will slowly advance the Fed's balance - sheet reduction, aiming to restore the Fed's balance - sheet size to the level before the 2008 crisis. - Fed's Williams said that if inflation continues to fall after the impact of tariffs fades, the Fed will have reason to further cut interest rates. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said that if inflation cools, one or two interest rate cuts later this year may be appropriate, but the Middle East war may lead to a situation where the Fed pauses action for a longer time [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - On March 5th at 20:30, the US January trade balance data will be released. - On March 4th at 21:15, the US ADP private employment report was announced; at 23:00, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI was announced. - On March 5th at 20:30, the number of US Challenger corporate layoffs in February will be released [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of slight increase in both supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading on dips with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals will present a situation of double - growth in supply and demand, with supply growing slightly faster than demand. The aluminum ingot inventory will still accumulate. It is also recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading on dips with a light position and control risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals are in a stage of slight increase in both supply and demand. Similar to the above, it is advised to conduct short - term long - position trading on dips with a light position and manage risks [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 24,795 yuan/ton, up 890 yuan; the main alumina futures contract is 2,782 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The main - to - second - consecutive contract spreads of Shanghai aluminum and alumina are - 185 yuan/ton and - 44 yuan/ton respectively, both decreasing [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are 263,422 hands, 307,900 hands, and 6,388 hands respectively. The former two increase, while the latter decreases [2]. - **Inventories**: LME aluminum inventories are 461,550 tons, down 2,000 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventories are 355,986 tons, up 58,646 tons; cast aluminum alloy inventories are 71,694 tons, down 1,041 tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote is 3,275 US dollars/ton, up 90 US dollars; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.57, up 0.07 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 24,400 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan; the alumina spot price is 2,610 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy, electrolytic aluminum, and alumina are 1,000 yuan/ton, - 405 yuan/ton, and - 172 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of cast aluminum alloy and electrolytic aluminum decreases, while that of alumina increases [2]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is 4.36 US dollars/ton, up 14.65 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Prices**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan and Shandong is 18,650 yuan/ton and 18,050 yuan/ton respectively, both increasing [2]. - **Quantities**: The import quantity of aluminum scrap in China is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the export quantity is 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons; the export quantity of alumina is 210,000 tons, up 40,000 tons; the import quantity is 227,800 tons, down 4,600 tons [2]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 204,900 tons, up 313,600 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Quantities**: The import quantity of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export quantity is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,540.20 million tons, up 40,000 tons [2]. - **Output and Rates**: The output of aluminum products is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate is 98.79%, up 0.48 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Outputs**: The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 664,900 tons, down 19,100 tons; the output of aluminum alloy is 1.825 million tons, unchanged; the automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 1.075 million vehicles [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum are 42.69% and 34.12% respectively, both increasing; the implied volatility of the main Shanghai aluminum at - the - money option is 22.24%, down 0.0017% [2]. - **Ratio**: The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 2.03, up 0.1455 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Federal Reserve officials have different views on interest rate cuts due to war and inflation issues. - China's February manufacturing PMI decreased, non - manufacturing business activity index increased slightly, and the comprehensive PMI output index decreased [2]. - The US February ISM manufacturing index is 52.4, higher than expected [2]. - Six Chinese ministries jointly issued a guidance to promote the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules [2]. - Eurozone inflation accelerated unexpectedly in February [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Rapeseed meal**: With the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and a significant drop in Canadian rapeseed tariffs, Canadian rapeseed and meal will flow back to the domestic market, increasing far - month supply pressure. Currently in the off - season of aquaculture demand, rapeseed meal demand is mainly rigid. Affected by the rise of US soybeans, rapeseed meal has been oscillating strongly recently, suitable for short - term trading [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is settled, and the import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding far - month supply pressure, but the market has already priced it in. Affected by the rise in international oil prices, rapeseed oil futures prices continued to rise and are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9486 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; rapeseed meal was 2303 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. ICE rapeseed futures (active) were 705.9 Canadian dollars/ton, up 8.7 Canadian dollars [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 85 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was - 53 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract was 277,988 lots, up 5,120 lots; rapeseed meal was 880,720 lots, down 7,478 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil was - 10,896 lots, down 1,705 lots; for rapeseed meal was - 215,678 lots, down 2,532 lots [2]. - **Warehouse receipts**: Rapeseed oil had 625 warehouse receipts, unchanged; rapeseed meal had 1,000 warehouse receipts, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,100 yuan/ton; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,490 yuan/ton. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,187.5 yuan/ton, down 168.75 yuan [2]. - **Ratios and spreads**: The oil - meal ratio was 4, down 0.04; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 614 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 187 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread was 1,430 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the rapeseed - palm oil spot spread was 1,100 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread was 570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production**: Global rapeseed production was forecasted at 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecasted rapeseed production in Canada (2026/27) was 1.92 million tons, down from the previous year's 2.18 million tons [2]. - **Imports**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 556,000 tons, up 536,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 2.2 million tons, up 500,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 2.382 million tons, up 235,000 tons [2]. - **Inventory and operation rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 2 million tons, up 1.25 million tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed was 3.2%, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 100,000 tons, up 50,000 tons; rapeseed meal was 65,000 tons, up 5,000 tons. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 2.61 million tons, up 190,000 tons; rapeseed meal was 929,000 tons, down 6,000 tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 80,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 2.98 million tons, up 230,000 tons [2]. - **Delivery volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was - 18,000 tons, down 18,000 tons; rapeseed meal was 54,000 tons, up 54,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly output of feed was 30.086 million tons, up 307,000 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 5.254 million tons, up 606,000 tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - **Implied volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 20.52%, up 0.45%; put options was 20.52%, up 0.6%. For rapeseed oil, call options was 17.07%, down 1.12%; put options was 17.04%, down 1.13% [2]. - **Historical volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 13.76%, down 0.78%; 60 - day was 14.5%, down 0.13%. For rapeseed oil, 20 - day was 16.57%, down 4.55%; 60 - day was 18.18%, up 0.15% [2]. Industry News - On March 3 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures continued to rise as the risk of war in Iran led to a significant increase in the prices of crude oil and related energy commodities. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract rose 8.20 Canadian dollars to 706.60 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture stated at the annual outlook forum that the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. South American soybean harvest is progressing, and the supply - side pressure will gradually increase [2]. - The Canadian Department of Agriculture predicted that the rapeseed production in 2026/27 will be 1.92 million tons, lower than the previous year's 2.18 million tons, and the ending inventory will be 165,000 tons, lower than the previous year's 275,000 tons [2]. - The USDA Outlook Forum predicted that the demand for soybean oil for biofuel production in 2025/26 will reach 14.8 billion pounds, a year - on - year increase of 26%, and will further increase by 17% to 17.3 billion pounds in 2026/27 [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, showing a loose situation. The pig price is under pressure, but the impact of the second - fattening entry on supply and price needs special attention. The main 2605 contract on the futures market closed down 0.31%, with a minimum of 11,105 yuan/ton, continuing the downward trend [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 11,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the main contract position was 169,609 lots, an increase of 4,945 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 1,150 lots, a decrease of 6 lots; the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions was - 48,466 lots, a decrease of 2,031 lots [3] Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Siping, Jilin was 9,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunfu, Guangdong was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main live pig basis was - 430 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory was 42,9670,000 heads, a decrease of 7130,000 heads; the national breeding sow inventory was 3,9610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [3] Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI in the current month was 0.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the spot price of corn was 2,403.14 yuan, an increase of 5.1 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 944.07, an increase of 19.16; the monthly output of feed was 30,086,000 tons, an increase of 307,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,429 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 20.83 yuan/head, a decrease of 32.27 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was - 159.65 yuan/head, a decrease of 61.33 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 60,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas was 13.8 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.2 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 4,4040,000 heads, a decrease of 4870,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 573.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [3] Industry News - According to Mysteel data, in February 2026, the breeding sows of key sample enterprises decreased by 0.02% month - on - month, the inventory of commercial pigs increased by 1.77% month - on - month, and the slaughter of commercial pigs decreased by 12.23% month - on - month. After the Spring Festival, the farming end gradually resumed the slaughter rhythm. Combining the sow production capacity and the number of newborn piglets, it is speculated that the supply pressure in the near - term remains. On the demand side, slaughtering enterprises resumed work one after another after the festival, and the slaughter volume rebounded from the low level during the holiday. However, as the temperature rises, consumption enters the traditional off - season, and the slaughter volume is difficult to return to the pre - holiday high [3]