Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Logs [1] - **Bearish**: PVC Pipe, Galvanized Pipe, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Live Pigs [1] - **Sideways**: Aluminium, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Cotton Yarn, Paper Pulp, Asphalt, Styrene, PTA, Naphtha, Short Fiber, Urea, PF, PVC, PG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Report's Core View - After the continuous strong and volume - increasing rise of stock index futures, capital flow amplifies market volatility. With the approaching of key macro - event nodes in September, the index is expected to fluctuate more, and it is recommended to moderately reduce positions and adjust the layout to be mainly long [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Multiple factors drive the prices of different commodities. For example, the expectation of Fed rate cuts and supply - demand situations affect metal prices; seasonal factors, production, and consumption situations influence agricultural product prices; and supply - demand, policy, and geopolitical factors impact energy and chemical product prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index futures may experience increased volatility in September, and it is advisable to reduce positions and focus on long positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy favor bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is boosted by safe - haven demand and rate - cut expectations [1]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper is expected to be strong due to Fed rate - cut expectations and tight supply [1]. - Aluminium prices are volatile under domestic consumption off - season and Fed rate - cut expectations [1]. - Alumina has weak fundamentals, but there are opportunities to go long in the far - month contracts [1]. - Zinc prices have limited downside, and short - selling should be cautious [1]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro - sentiment, Fed rate - cut expectations, and supply - demand in the short term [1]. - Tin prices are trending well in the short term due to seasonal maintenance and improved macro - sentiment [1]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore have neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, and warm macro - drivers [1]. - PVC pipe and galvanized pipe are bearish due to long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals, and high inventory [1]. - Glass and soda ash are under pressure due to supply surplus [1]. - Coking coal and coke have weakening fundamentals and are expected to be weak [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean oil is re - priced due to factors such as reduced soybean arrivals, consumption season, and trade flow [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are supported by reduced production and supply - reduction expectations [1]. - Cotton has a near - month squeeze logic, and the 01 contract has limited upside [1]. - Sugar is running strongly but with limited height [1]. - Corn is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and new - grain listing should be monitored [1]. - MO1 has limited downside due to import - cost support [1]. - Paper pulp's 11 - 1 reverse spread can be considered [1]. - Logs are expected to oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - Live pigs are bearish due to increased supply and reduced cost [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil are affected by factors such as India's procurement change, OPEC+ production increase, and tariff issues [1]. - Asphalt's short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and follows crude oil [1]. - Styrene is affected by rainfall, cost, and inventory factors [1]. - PTA's production has recovered, and profits have been repaired [1]. - Naphtha and related products are affected by industry reform and supply - demand changes [1]. - Short fiber has increased factory maintenance and growing warehouse receipts [1]. - Urea has limited upside and cost - end support [1]. - PF and PVC are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - PG is affected by multiple factors such as capacity reduction, trade, and supply - demand [1]. - Container shipping European Line's freight rate is expected to decline [1].

Group 1: Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, 47% of companies in the North Exchange's consumer services sector reported positive year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [2][8] - The median revenue for these companies in H1 2025 was 236 million yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.36% year-on-year, while the median net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.23 million yuan, down 7.59% year-on-year [17][19] - In Q2 2025, the median revenue increased to 126 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.88%, and the median net profit rose to 7.92 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [17][19] Group 2: Company Performance - Among the 38 companies, 14 reported both revenue and net profit growth in H1 2025, while 15 companies achieved sequential growth in both metrics in Q2 2025 [20][22] - Notable performers included Jinbo Biological, which achieved a revenue of 859 million yuan in H1 2025, a 42% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 392 million yuan, up 26.65% [30] - Kangnong Seed Industry reported a significant increase in contract liabilities, up 410% year-on-year, indicating strong market acceptance of its products [26] Group 3: Market Trends - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the consumer services sector increased from 51.7X to 51.8X, while the total market capitalization decreased from 126.47 billion yuan to 124.89 billion yuan [34][37] - The overall market performance for the consumer services sector showed a median decline of 1.99% in stock prices during the week of August 25 to August 29, 2025 [33][38] - The TTM median P/E ratio for the broader consumer sector rose by 8.98% to 72.3X, indicating a positive valuation trend [44][45] Group 4: Industry Insights - The TTM median P/E ratio for the food and beverage and agriculture sectors decreased from 47.9X to 45.8X, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [46][47] - The professional technical services sector saw a decline in its TTM median P/E ratio from 32.2X to 31.2X, indicating potential challenges in valuation [50][51] - The consumer services sector's performance is influenced by various factors, including market competition and economic conditions, which are critical for future growth [2][8]

Core Insights - Zhengbang Technology (002157.SZ) reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 6.838 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112.17% [1] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 202 million yuan, marking three consecutive years of growth [1] - The operating cash flow also improved, with a net inflow of 19.82 million yuan, an increase of 561 million yuan compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The latest asset-liability ratio stands at 45.69%, ranking 8th among disclosed peers, a decrease of 4.98 percentage points from the previous year [3] - The gross profit margin is reported at 14.78%, ranking 9th among peers, with an increase of 4.39 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Return on equity (ROE) improved to 1.70%, an increase of 2.88 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] - The diluted earnings per share rose to 0.02 yuan, an increase of 0.04 yuan year-on-year, achieving three consecutive years of growth [3] - Total asset turnover increased to 0.35 times, a rise of 95.16% year-on-year [3] - Inventory turnover improved to 2.68 times, ranking 6th among peers, with a year-on-year increase of 39.44% [3] Shareholder Structure - The number of shareholders is reported at 158,400, with the top ten shareholders holding 3.782 billion shares, accounting for 40.89% of the total share capital [3] - The largest shareholder is Jiangxi Shuangbantian Agricultural Co., Ltd., holding 15.13% of the shares [3] - Other notable shareholders include Nanchang Xinzhenbang Enterprise Management Center and Wuhu Qianli Xinduo Investment Partnership, holding 5.95% and 3.35% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's support for India in the face of U.S. tariffs, highlighting the complexities of India's geopolitical and economic situation, and questioning whether the Modi government will take a strong stance against the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Diplomatic Relations - Chinese Ambassador to India, Xu Feihong, criticized the U.S. for using tariffs as a weapon, labeling it as bullying behavior [2] - Xu emphasized China's commitment to stand with India, a rare diplomatic stance that drew attention from Indian media [2] Group 2: Economic Cooperation - Recent data shows that bilateral trade between China and India has exceeded $75 billion since the beginning of 2025, marking a 10% year-on-year increase [5] - China has offered to assist India with critical supply issues, including fertilizers, rare earths, and tunnel boring machines, which are vital for India's agriculture and infrastructure [4] Group 3: India's Challenges - India faces significant pressure from the U.S. regarding its agricultural market, which employs nearly 40% of its population, making any compromise politically risky [8] - The U.S. has imposed a 25% punitive tariff on India, targeting trade barriers and additional tariffs due to India's oil imports from Russia, further complicating India's economic landscape [8] Group 4: Strategic Considerations - India's economic dependence on the U.S. is greater than the reverse, limiting its ability to retaliate effectively against U.S. actions [10] - India lacks strategic resources that could serve as leverage against the U.S., unlike China, which holds critical rare earth elements [10] - The deep security cooperation between the U.S. and India complicates India's position, as it plays a significant role in the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy [10] Group 5: Global Economic Dynamics - The U.S. is increasingly concerned about the trend of de-dollarization among BRICS nations, with India maintaining cooperation with China and Russia on energy and settlement issues [11] - The U.S. actions against India serve as a warning to other countries regarding the consequences of challenging the dollar's dominance [11] Group 6: Historical Context - The article suggests that history shows that silence and concession in the face of bullying do not lead to respect, as evidenced by India's recent experiences [13]

Group 1 - The EU plans to eliminate tariffs on all US industrial products and provide favorable treatment for various agricultural products, indicating a strategic move to enhance US export advantages [3][5] - The US has committed to reducing tariffs on automobiles and parts to 15% and implementing zero or near-zero tariffs on certain products, suggesting a temporary mutual benefit in US-EU relations [5][7] - The EU has agreed to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products and $40 billion in US chips over the next three years, reflecting a significant shift in trade dynamics [7] Group 2 - The EU's proposal has faced criticism from within Europe, particularly from the German machinery sector, which argues that it unfairly benefits US products while European industries face punitive tariffs [10] - India's economy is suffering due to increased US tariffs, with a projected GDP loss of about 1 percentage point, particularly affecting labor-intensive small and medium enterprises [12] - Canada has experienced a significant economic downturn, with a 1.6% annualized GDP decline and a 27% drop in exports, raising concerns about future economic stability [14] Group 3 - The short-term benefits of US tariffs include increased government revenue, but long-term effects may lead to higher production costs, reduced export volumes, and overall trade contraction [16] - The US inflation rate is rising, with the PCE price index increasing by 2.6% year-on-year, driven by higher service costs, indicating that tariffs are contributing to domestic inflationary pressures [18] - The current trade strategy may damage the US's international credibility and relationships with allies, potentially leading to a search for alternative trade partners by other nations [18]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年09月01日 (原油) 上周国际油价震荡，布伦特11合约涨0.3%。俄乌、伊核谈判仍处僵局，但在近期地缘风险溢价小 幅向上修复后暂无迹象表明供应受到明显阻碍。旺季过后石油市场供应过剩压力将进一步凸显,关 注9月7日0PEC+议产会议对剩余165万桶/天自愿减产恢复的讨论，若无进一步地缘犹动原油市场下 行压力增加。 【贵金属】 周五美国公布核心PCE温和上涨符合预期，进一步稳定了9月美联储降息预期，叠加特朗普解雇库克 事件成肠美联储独立性,责金属偏强运行。国际金价通近历史高点,一旦突破则上涨可能具备一定 持续性,本周关键的美国非农数据或将决定多空走向。此外美联邦巡回上诉法院裁定特朗普关税措 施非法，关注最高法院裁决。 (铜) 上周五伦铜走出9900美元8月最高收盘价，主要受金银涨势提振，市场等待9月中旬联储兑现降息， 且部分机构关注美国失业数据的调整。国内铜市关注废铜因整顿补贴、落实反向开票成本上调后, 市场报价的调整。铜市基本面编中性,但联储降息引起的资金共振可能带动铜价短线突破上冲，少 量多单短线参与。 (铝) 周五夜盘沪铝窄幅波 ...

Group 1: Financial Futures - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Domestic prop - up policies are gradually exerting force. Promoting service consumption policies in September and real - estate policies are advancing. Overseas, the US economy shows resilience. The final effects of domestic policies need further observation, and attention should be paid to upcoming US economic data [1][2] - **Summary by Related Catalogs**: - **Macroeconomics**: Policies are being promoted both domestically and overseas. In China, service and real - estate policies are advancing, and manufacturing PMI slightly rebounds. In the US, economic data shows resilience, and there are tariff - related legal issues [1] - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The depreciation pressure of the RMB against the US dollar is slowing. In the short - term, it's about the rhythm of appreciation and has a low probability of returning to the "6 era". In the medium - term, it needs a decline in the US dollar index and improvement in the domestic economy [3][4][5] - **Stock Index**: After the release of two major data over the weekend, the market is expected to be volatile, with large - cap stock indices relatively stronger. It is recommended to hold long positions [7] - **Treasury Bonds**: After the release of August's manufacturing PMI, the bond market is not sensitive to fundamental data. If the stock market fluctuates at a high level, the bond market may rebound; otherwise, it may test the bottom again. It is recommended to take small - band bottom - fishing strategies [8][9] - **Container Shipping**: The decline in ONE's European - line spot cabin quotes is negative for futures prices. However, the ruling that Trump's global tariffs are illegal is positive for the global trade environment and EC prices. EC may show an oscillating or oscillating - upward trend [10][11] Group 2: Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and influencing factors. For example, precious metals are affected by Fed rate - cut expectations and Fed independence concerns; copper is in a state of multi - factor balance; aluminum is affected by macro and fundamental factors [12][16][20] - **Summary by Related Catalogs**: - **Gold & Silver**: The price is mainly affected by Fed rate - cut expectations and Fed independence concerns. In the short - term, it is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions [12][13][15] - **Copper**: Before the Fed's next rate decision on September 19, copper prices may continue to oscillate. In the fourth quarter, it is recommended to buy at low levels. The price is affected by multiple factors such as Fed rate cuts, supply and demand [16][17][18] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, it is oscillating and bullish, but there is pressure above. It is recommended to build positions in batches on dips [20] - **Alumina**: It is weakly oscillating, with insufficient upward drive and limited downward space [21] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is oscillating and bullish, and can consider arbitrage operations [22] - **Zinc**: It is currently at the bottom and oscillating strongly in the short - term [22][23] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The market is oscillating this week, affected by macro and market factors. Nickel is expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan, and stainless steel between 12,500 - 13,100 yuan [23][26] - **Tin**: The price increase is driven by tight supply. It is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term, with a target price of 276,000 yuan per ton [27][28] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures market is expected to enter an oscillating and sorting stage. It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see [29][31] - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [32][34] - **Polysilicon**: It is expected to be oscillating and bullish due to industry integration expectations [33][35] - **Lead**: It is oscillating narrowly, with limited upward and downward space [36] Ferrous Metals - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The ferrous metal market is generally under pressure. Steel products have a weak supply - demand pattern, and iron ore has increasing risks, while coal - coke and ferroalloys also face different challenges [38][40][43] - **Summary by Related Catalogs**: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern of steel products is weak, and a negative feedback mechanism may form. It is recommended to maintain a bearish strategy and pay attention to demand in the peak season and policy changes [38][39] - **Iron Ore**: Although the current fundamentals are stable, the pressure on steel inventory and iron ore shipments is increasing, and the risk of price decline is rising [40][41] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market may oscillate widely at a high level, and coke may face price cuts after the parade. It is recommended to use an oscillating strategy for coking coal and consider selling hedging for coke [42][43] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The supply is loose, and they are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to consider a long - spread strategy for the two [44][45] Energy and Chemicals - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Different energy and chemical products have different market trends. Crude oil is oscillating weakly, and other products such as LPG, PTA - PX, etc. are affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [46][53][55] - **Summary by Related Catalogs**: - **Crude Oil**: It is oscillating weakly. In September, there are negative factors such as seasonal decline in demand, and it is necessary to pay attention to key events and the Russia - Ukraine situation [46][48][49] - **LPG**: The market is oscillating. Supply is controllable, and demand changes little. The market is affected by multiple factors [50][51][52] - **PTA - PX**: The market is affected by supply - side news, and it is recommended to reduce the TA processing margin on rallies [53][54][55] - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are driven weakly, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range and consider option strategies in the long - term [56][58][59] - **Methanol**: It is under pressure. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions and sold put options and pay attention to Iranian shipments and port pick - up [60][61] - **PP**: The demand situation is unclear. The supply is increasing, and the future depends on whether the demand can maintain high - speed growth [62][63][64] - **PE**: The demand is recovering but not strong enough to drive. It is expected to be in an oscillating pattern and wait for a demand signal [65][66] - **PVC**: The price returns to the industrial level. With weak fundamentals, it is recommended to maintain a short - position allocation [67][68] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: For pure benzene, the supply is stable, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. For styrene, inventory is increasing, and the outlook is bearish [69][70][71]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the stock index market, although there are short - term fluctuations after continuous rises, the long - term direction is still favorable. In the bond market, interest rates may have downward space in the long run, but the short - term is in a volatile pattern. In the precious metals market, the Fed's potential continuous interest rate cuts are expected to drive up precious metal prices, especially silver. In the non - ferrous metals market, most metals are expected to have different degrees of price support, while zinc shows an oversupply situation. In the black building materials market, the demand for steel products is weak, and the prices are under pressure, while the price of iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile. In the energy and chemical market, different products have different supply - demand and price trends. In the agricultural products market, different products also present different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [3][5][7]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI and comprehensive PMI also increased. The policy shows care for the capital market. After recent continuous rises, the market may have increased short - term fluctuations, but the long - term is still a buying - on - dips strategy [2][3]. Treasury Bonds - The performance of treasury bond contracts on Friday showed small increases. The manufacturing PMI in August improved but was still below the boom - bust line. The sales of real estate enterprises from January to August decreased year - on - year. The central bank conducted large - scale reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 4217 billion yuan. In the long run, interest rates may have downward space, but the short - term is in a volatile pattern [4][5]. Precious Metals - The prices of domestic gold and silver futures rose, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver fell. Due to the personnel changes in the Fed and the marginal weakening of the US labor market, the Fed is expected to enter an interest - rate - cut cycle, which is a significant positive factor for precious metal prices, especially silver, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline. It is recommended to buy silver on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - The copper price showed a volatile upward trend. The inventory of the three major exchanges increased, and the supply of scrap copper was tight. The开工 rate of copper rod enterprises declined. With the approach of the peak season and the support of fundamentals, the copper price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [9]. Aluminum - The aluminum price rebounded on Friday. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China is relatively low, and the demand has improved marginally. With the Fed's dovish signal and the expectation of interest rate cuts in September, the aluminum price has strong support. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes [10]. Zinc - The zinc price showed a weak trend. The zinc concentrate is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and the zinc ingot social inventory is rapidly accumulating. The downstream demand is weak. Although the Fed's interest rate cut expectation is high, the zinc price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern in the short term [11]. Lead - The lead price declined slightly. The lead concentrate inventory decreased marginally, and the processing fee was in a downward trend. The supply of lead ingots decreased marginally. With the high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the lead price is expected to be strong [12]. Nickel - The price of nickel ore is expected to remain stable. The price of nickel iron is expected to be stable and strong, and the price of intermediate products is expected to be strong. In the short term, the macro - environment is positive, and the nickel price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [13][14]. Tin - The domestic tin price rose sharply last week due to the shortage of tin ore supply. The supply of tin is expected to decrease significantly in September, while the demand is in the off - season. The tin price is expected to be strong and volatile [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate showed a weak adjustment. With the approach of the peak season in the lithium - battery industry, the supply - demand relationship is gradually repairing, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas supply and industrial news [17]. Alumina - The price of alumina decreased. The supply of domestic and overseas ore is disturbed, and the macro - sentiment is improving. The short - term downward space of the alumina price is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel decreased slightly. The short - term downstream demand is insufficient, but with the approach of the peak season, the demand is expected to increase. The inventory of stainless steel decreased slightly [19][20]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price of casting aluminum alloy was stable. The downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the inventory is increasing. With the support of cost and the increase in market activity, the price is expected to be high in the short term [21]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The overall demand for steel products is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the profit of steel mills is shrinking. If the demand cannot improve effectively, the price may continue to decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [23][24]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore decreased slightly. The overseas iron ore shipping is stable, the demand for iron ore decreased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly. The iron ore price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - sentiment in the long term. The soda ash price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the price center is expected to rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [27][28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon continued to decline. The supply of manganese silicon is increasing, and the demand is expected to be weak in the future. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon has no obvious contradiction. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weakly volatile, with over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand. The polysilicon price is in the pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", and the price is expected to fluctuate [33][34][36]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - The rubber price is expected to be strong in the short term. The rainy weather in Thailand may drive up the price. The mid - term strategy is a long - position strategy. It is recommended to buy on dips and close positions quickly [38][42]. Crude Oil - The price of crude oil showed a mixed trend. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is undervalued. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for crude oil but not to chase the high price [43]. Methanol - The price of methanol decreased. The domestic supply is increasing, the port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [44][45]. Urea - The price of urea decreased. The domestic supply decreased due to the increase in maintenance devices, and the demand is mainly concentrated in exports. It is recommended to buy on dips [46]. Styrene - The price of styrene decreased. The cost - end supply is abundant, the supply is increasing, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. The long - term price is expected to rebound [47]. PVC - The price of PVC decreased. The domestic supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [49]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol increased slightly. The supply is still in excess, and the mid - term inventory is expected to accumulate. The short - term price is supported by less arrivals and policy sentiment, but the mid - term valuation may decline [50]. PTA - The price of PTA decreased. The supply decreased due to unexpected maintenance, and the demand improved. It is recommended to buy on dips following PX [51]. p - Xylene - The price of p - xylene decreased. The PX load is high, the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance, and the inventory is expected to be low. It is recommended to buy on dips following crude oil [52]. Polyethylene PE - The price of polyethylene decreased. The cost - end has support, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. The price is expected to be volatile and upward [53][54]. Polypropylene PP - The price of polypropylene decreased. The supply pressure is large, the demand is recovering seasonally, and the inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to buy the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [55]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - The pig price rose over the weekend. The supply in September may be weak, but the demand and other factors have potential support for the pig price. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the low - level rebound of the disk [57]. Eggs - The egg price was stable over the weekend with partial increases. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is flat. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds and use the backwardation strategy [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of soybean meal was weak last week and increased slightly over the weekend. The supply of global protein raw materials is in excess, and the upward momentum of soybean import cost needs to be tested. The soybean meal price is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to buy on dips at the low - end of the cost range [59][60]. Oils and Fats - The price of oils and fats decreased. The fundamentals support the price center of oils and fats. The palm oil price is expected to be volatile and strong before the full accumulation of inventory and the negative feedback of demand [61][63]. Sugar - The price of sugar was volatile. The domestic sugar supply is expected to increase, and the valuation is high. The overall view is bearish, and the downward space depends on the international sugar price [64][65]. Cotton - The price of cotton was volatile. Although the downstream consumption is average, with the approach of the peak season and the low inventory, the cotton price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US consumer confidence index dropped to a 3 - month low, and inflation data reinforced the Fed's possible rate - cut expectation next month, making the US dollar index weak and global risk appetite cool. Domestically, China's August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.4 but stayed below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. With the extension of the tariff truce and increased US easing expectations, domestic risk appetite has risen in the short term. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a marginal increase in short - term macro - upward drivers. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation [3]. - For assets, the stock index is short - term shock - strong, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term high - level shock, and cautious waiting and seeing is advised; among commodity sectors, black is short - term shock, and cautious waiting and seeing is needed; non - ferrous is short - term shock - strong, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term shock, and cautious waiting and seeing is required; precious metals are short - term high - level shock - strong, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: US consumer confidence decline and inflation data strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, weakening the US dollar index and cooling global risk appetite [3]. - Domestic: China's August manufacturing PMI improved slightly but stayed below the boom - bust line. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce service consumption policies. Sino - US tariff truce extension and US easing expectations reduce external risks and increase domestic easing expectations, raising domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade and domestic policy implementation [3]. - Asset Recommendations: Stock index - short - term shock - strong, cautious long; treasury bonds - short - term high - level shock, cautious waiting; black - short - term shock, cautious waiting; non - ferrous - short - term shock - strong, cautious long; energy and chemicals - short - term shock, cautious waiting; precious metals - short - term high - level shock - strong, cautious long [3]. Stock Index - Driven by battery, small metals, and liquor sectors, the domestic stock market rose slightly. China's August manufacturing PMI improved but was below the boom - bust line. Policies to expand service consumption will be introduced. Sino - US tariff truce extension and US easing expectations reduce external risks and increase domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. Black Metals Steel - Last Friday, the steel futures and spot markets were weak, with low trading volumes. The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" increases the expectation of steel production cuts. Currently, the fundamentals are weak, with inventory increasing and consumption of some varieties falling. Due to electric - furnace steel复产, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly due to northern restrictions. In early September, northern restrictions may further intensify. The steel market may rebound in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - Last Friday, iron ore futures and spot prices were weak. High steel mill profits led to high daily hot - metal production, but northern restrictions in the coming week made steel mills cautious in purchasing. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 90.8 tons, and arrivals decreased by 83.3 tons. Mainstream Australian powder supply was stable, but traders were reluctant to sell. Iron ore port inventory decreased slightly. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Last Friday, silicon iron and silicon manganese spot prices were weak. With the increase in steel production, ferroalloy demand was okay. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the north was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5770 - 5820 yuan/ton. Inner Mongolia's production was stable, with minor fluctuations. New production capacity may increase daily output by 500 - 800 tons in the future. The national silicon manganese enterprise开工 rate was 46.37%, up 0.62%, and daily output was 30170 tons, up 590 tons. Manganese ore prices were weak. Silicon iron was in a weak supply - demand balance, with stable cost support. The national silicon iron enterprise开工 rate was 36.18%, up 1.86%, and daily output was 16125 tons, up 3.43% (535 tons). Ferroalloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Other Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Last week, the soda ash futures contract fluctuated. Supply decreased week - on - week, and new capacity will increase supply pressure. Demand was stable week - on - week, but downstream demand was weak. Profits decreased week - on - week and were in a loss state. Soda ash has a high - supply, high - inventory, and weak - demand pattern, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. - **Glass**: Last week, the glass futures contract fluctuated. Supply increased slightly, with stable production, increased开工 rate, and more production lines in operation. Demand was stable, with weak real - estate demand but increased downstream orders in mid - August. Profits increased slightly. Glass is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Macroscopically, Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook led to a dollar decline. The US PCE inflation was in line with expectations, and a September rate cut is likely. However, domestic copper demand will weaken marginally, and the strong copper price may not last [9][10]. Aluminum - Last Friday, the aluminum closing price dropped by 10 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest. Aluminum inventory reached 620,000 tons, exceeding expectations. LME aluminum inventory was stable at a neutral level. In the medium term, the aluminum price increase is limited, and in the short term, it will fluctuate due to the peak - season expectation [10]. Aluminum Alloy - Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing the production cost of recycled aluminum plants. It is the off - season, with weak demand. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, but the upside is limited [10]. Tin - On the supply side, the combined开工 rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 59.43%. Some Yunnan smelters were under maintenance, and the tin ore supply was tight but will ease. African tin ore imports declined in July. On the demand side, the terminal demand was weak, with a decline in new photovoltaic installations and related industries. This week, the inventory decreased by 117 tons to 9161 tons. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support from smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weak demand [11]. Lithium Carbonate - As of August 28, the weekly lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, down 0.6%, with a 49.35%开工 rate. Lithium mica production decreased, while lithium spodumene production increased. The August monthly production was 85,240 tons, up 5%. The Australian lithium spodumene concentrate CIF price dropped by 7.1%. Lithium carbonate production reached a new high in August, and the profit of lithium spodumene smelting compensated for the decrease in lithium mica. There are still disturbances regarding the reserve verification report of Yichun mining enterprises before the end of September. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon - The latest weekly production was 93,954 tons, up 7.0%. The number of open furnaces increased by 12 to 309, with an opening rate of 38%. Production increased in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu. The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increased, and there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. The anti - involution drive weakened, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [12]. Polysilicon - The August production is estimated to be about 1.28 million tons, and the September production plan may increase. There are rumors of a slight production cut in September, but the actual implementation needs to be observed. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells were stable, and the component procurement bid price increased, but the market mainstream price did not follow. The latest weekly inventory was 268,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 5,000 tons. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 340 to 6,880. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The anti - involution drive weakened, and the price is expected to turn weak in a fluctuating manner [13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The probability of a short - term缓解 of the Russia - Ukraine situation is low, and the oil price rose slightly due to the risk of reduced Russian supply. Later, the North Sea spot benchmark and discount decreased, and the C - structure deepened. There is still short - term spot buying support, but the seasonal weakening of demand after September may lead to accelerated oversupply. The medium - and long - term bearish expectation of the oil price is strong. Attention should be paid to the OPEC production decision on September 7 and the rate - cut path in September [14][15]. Asphalt - The oil price change was limited, and the asphalt price was stable under cost support. The asphalt spot market was weak, and the basis decreased slightly. The social inventory did not decrease significantly, and the factory inventory decreased slightly. Profits recovered, and the开工 rate increased significantly. In the future, the oil price may decline due to OPEC+ production increases. With limited inventory reduction, the asphalt market may remain weakly fluctuating in the short term [15]. PX - The PX price rose due to the Zhejiang Petrochemical year - end maintenance plan but did not break through further. The PTA开工 rate is currently low but may increase. PX is in a tight supply situation. The PXN spread decreased to $255, and the PX foreign market price rebounded to $849. The PX market will fluctuate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [15]. PTA - Currently, the PTA load decreased slightly, and the high basis caused by the previous spot shortage has weakened. The processing fee has increased, and there are expectations of supply recovery. The demand growth has slowed, and the downstream开工 rate is 89.8%. PTA will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand [15]. Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory decreased slightly to 500,000 tons. The load of syngas - based plants is high, with limited room for further increase. The impact of the petrochemical industry capacity adjustment on ethylene glycol is limited. The long - term anti - involution logic is not highly priced. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to the downstream开工 recovery and crude oil cost fluctuations [16]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber price decreased slightly due to the sector - wide decline. Terminal orders increased seasonally, and the short - fiber开工 rate rebounded slightly. The short - fiber inventory increased slightly. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders. It is recommended to go short on the short - fiber in the medium term following the polyester sector [16]. Methanol - The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals increased the supply pressure. The opening of the reflux window due to the port price decline supported the spot price. The planned restart of MTO plants and the upcoming traditional downstream peak season indicate a marginal improvement in the methanol fundamentals. However, the oversupply situation remains, and high inventory suppresses the price. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. PP - The PP plant开工 rate increased, and new capacity was put into operation, resulting in a new high in weekly supply. The downstream开工 rate increased slightly, but the demand was weak. Although there is policy support, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. LLDPE - Current maintenance has relieved the supply pressure. Downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the inventory has decreased. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. However, as the maintenance ends and supply returns, the pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand. The LLDPE price is expected to fluctuate [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Since the USDA tightened the supply - demand expectation of new - crop US soybeans in August, the historical yield estimate has been revised. Recently, the export sales data improved due to Sino - US soybean trade negotiation news, and the net long position of CBOT soybean funds increased. With the upcoming harvest of US soybeans, without substantial Chinese purchases, the export outlook is not optimistic. The pressure of concentrated listing is expected to be better than in previous years, and there is no upward driver for the low - valued market [18][19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The CBOT soybean futures price may be under pressure in the short term. Domestically, the increase in imported soybean rotation and the high - level procurement of oilseeds in the third quarter lead to a large inventory pressure. The risk of near - month/spot contracts has not subsided, and the basis is difficult to repair in the short term. Rapeseed meal has a large high - inventory circulation pressure, but the low rapeseed inventory and few far - month purchases provide an upward - fluctuation basis [19]. Oils - Southeast Asian palm oil is in the peak production season. Exports are limited by the closure of the Indian low - tax festival stocking window and the substitution impact of international soybean oil. It is expected that Indonesia's low inventory will recover, and Malaysia's inventory pressure will increase. The price difference between international oilseeds and crude oil is under pressure, limiting the overall boost to oils. It is expected that domestic palm oil will be under pressure due to the weakening cost, while soybean and rapeseed oils have increased supply and demand, sufficient inventory, and a low - valued market may be repaired relative to palm oil [19]. Corn - In September, the pricing weight of new - season corn increases, and the main futures price has entered the range of last year's opening price. There is no pressure of concentrated arrivals as in last year, the carry - over inventory is low, and there is still a risk of excessive rainfall in the main production areas. Although the planting cost has decreased with the decline in land - leasing costs, under the policy atmosphere of stabilizing the price of important agricultural products and increasing farmers' income, it is unlikely to break through last year's range [19]. Pigs - At the end of August, the reduction in enterprise pig sales drove up the pig price, with an unexpected increase. The official has proposed the core regulation direction of "reducing weight, stabilizing production capacity, and restricting secondary fattening" to prevent large price fluctuations. The early - August sales and weight reduction have buffered some pressure, and some local areas have started purchasing and storage. The market has a certain willingness to support the price at low levels. The pig price in September should not be overly pessimistic [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Upstream prices are gradually improving. The production - material price index declined slightly in the week of August 22, but the year - on - year decline since August has narrowed. Steel industry capacity and output will be precisely regulated, which is expected to drive a gradual improvement in PPI and a slow rise in long - bond interest rates [4][13]. - The strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar does not necessarily trigger a more relaxed liquidity supply. If Trump successfully replaces Cook, the proportion of "dovish" Fed governors may increase, leading to a decline in the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds. The strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar is conducive to stabilizing foreign investment, and its stability against the currency basket is conducive to stabilizing foreign trade [4][16]. - The US PCE inflation in July basically met market expectations and may have limited impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut prospects. However, the US trade deficit in July far exceeded expectations, mainly due to a sharp increase in imports, which may lead to intensified inflation and affect the interest - rate cut rhythm [4]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - **Upstream prices**: The production - material price index declined slightly in the week of August 22, with a narrowing year - on - year decline since August. The steel industry's average annual added - value growth target for 2025 - 2026 is 4%. By August 29, the closing price of the coking - coal futures main contract was close to the December 2024 average, while that of the rebar main contract was significantly lower [4][13]. - **Exchange rate**: After Powell's hint at the global central - bank annual meeting and Trump's move to remove Cook, if Cook is successfully replaced, the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds may decline. The RMB has strengthened against the US dollar, but the RMB exchange - rate index is still not high, which is an ideal state [4][16]. - **Inflation and trade**: The US PCE inflation in July basically met expectations. The trade deficit far exceeded expectations due to a sharp increase in imports, which may be related to the tariff "grace period" and mild inflation, and may intensify inflation and affect interest - rate cuts [4]. - **High - frequency data changes**: In the week of August 30, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.78% week - on - week and 27.43% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale - price index increased by 2.54% week - on - week and decreased by 19.19% year - on - year. The prices of Brent and WTI crude - oil futures increased by 1.85% and 1.63% respectively week - on - week. The LME copper and aluminum spot prices increased by 1.13% and 1.52% respectively week - on - week [4][20]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison The report provides multiple charts to show the trend comparison between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between LME copper spot - price year - on - year change and industrial added - value year - on - year change (plus PPI year - on - year change), and the relationship between crude - steel daily - output year - on - year change and industrial added - value year - on - year change [22][33]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe The report presents charts of US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, US first - week unemployment - claim numbers and unemployment rates, US same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year changes, and Chicago Fed financial - condition indexes, as well as the implied prospects of the US Federal Fund futures for interest - rate hikes/cuts and the overnight index swap for the ECB's interest - rate hikes/cuts [88][90][93]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through various charts, such as the seasonal trends of crude - steel (decade - average) daily output, production - material price index, and 30 - major - city commercial - housing transaction area [101]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen The report provides charts of the year - on - year changes in subway passenger traffic in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [158][160][165].