Economic News - In June, the total electricity consumption in China reached 867 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [1] - The People's Bank of China announced that the 5-year LPR remains at 3.5% and the 1-year LPR at 3% [1] - The U.S. government is reviewing contracts between SpaceX and federal agencies due to concerns over potential waste in multi-billion dollar deals [1] - The Ministry of Transport reported that several key indicators of the "14th Five-Year Plan" have been completed ahead of schedule, including highway mileage and urban rail transit [1] - E-commerce in China saw a growth of 8.5% in online retail sales from January to June 2025, with significant increases in digital products and home appliances [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [1] - The European Investment Bank will launch a financing support plan totaling €4.25 billion for renewable energy and green technology investments in EU countries [1] Company News - Yushutech has begun its IPO counseling process with CITIC Securities as the advisor, aiming to submit its application by October 2025 [4] - Suzhou Goodark has been established in Singapore with an investment of approximately 8 million RMB for electronic materials and solar cell production [4] - Hongxin Technology signed contracts with a leading domestic flying car company for the development and procurement of components, which is expected to positively impact its performance [4] - Rainbowsoft's chairman proposed a cash dividend plan for 2025, suggesting a distribution of no less than 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4] - Changyingtong expects revenue between 173 million to 211 million RMB for the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in net profit due to rising demand for optical fiber devices [4] Retail Industry - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a slowdown attributed to the earlier "618" shopping festival and weaker restaurant sales [5][6] - Essential consumption remains stable, while optional categories show a slowdown in recovery, with food and daily necessities performing well [6] - Home appliances and furniture sales saw significant growth, with home appliances up 32.4% and furniture up 28.7% year-on-year, driven by government policies [7] - Online retail sales increased by 8.5% in the first half of 2025, with physical goods online sales growing by 6.0%, indicating a steady growth in online consumption [8] - The retail market is expected to continue its recovery, with a focus on durable goods benefiting from policy support and consumer preferences for high-cost performance products [8]

Group 1 - The market experienced a rebound driven by positive factors such as AI and anti-involution, with the GDP data confirming a moderate economic recovery, providing fundamental support for the A-share market [1] - The banking system injected short-term liquidity at the highest level of the year, effectively alleviating liquidity pressure caused by tax payments and bond issuance [1] - A-share trading volume decreased, with the average daily turnover dropping to 1.54 trillion yuan, while major indices like the ChiNext Index and CSI 300 saw increases of 3.17% and 1.09% respectively [1] Group 2 - The market sentiment is primarily driven by policy expectations and active industry dynamics, with a notable improvement in market sentiment ahead of the Politburo meeting [1] - The potential divergence in the market mainly revolves around the recovery slope of the fundamentals, with GDP and June financial data validating economic resilience, while retail sales growth is slowing and the real estate sector remains under pressure [1] - The continuation of anti-involution policies is expected to improve the profitability of related companies and the competitive landscape of industries [1] Group 3 - In the overseas market, Trump's tariffs and the Federal Reserve's policy stance are creating uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts, with the expectation of maintaining interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting [2] - The financial sector is experiencing a pullback due to short-term trading congestion, while the technology growth sector remains strong, particularly in AI hardware and applications [2] - The anti-involution trend is likely to continue under policy catalysis, with industries like photovoltaics, building materials, and aquaculture becoming focal points amid macroeconomic deflationary pressures [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Pigs**: Future two months are a seasonally tight supply period for pigs due to winter piglet diseases, and the July pig slaughter plan is reduced, which supports the pig market. However, the overall supply this year is relatively strong, with the national sow inventory in May at 40.42 million heads, only 0.38 million heads less than the peak in November last year, and still above the basic capacity of 39 million heads, limiting the upward movement of pig prices [2] - **Eggs**: Eggs are in a traditional seasonal off - season with weakening consumption demand. The high - temperature and high - humidity weather is unfavorable for egg storage, reducing channel purchasing willingness. Newly - laying hens are at a high - production stage. Although farmers have a high willingness to cull due to large losses, the supply - side capacity reduction has just begun, and the reversal point has not arrived. Egg prices have a rebound demand at low levels but are still in a bearish trend, showing a weak and volatile pattern [7] - **Soybean Meal**: As of the week ending July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than market expectations and the previous week, and also at a relatively high level over the years. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 169.5 million tons. The confirmed high - yield expectations in South America suppress the futures price to fluctuate weakly [9] - **Corn**: The spot price in the main production areas has weakened, and under the continuous decline of the futures price, traders' willingness to hold prices has weakened, and their willingness to sell at low prices has increased. Deep - processing enterprises are pressing prices for purchases. The corn inventory in the four northern ports, a barometer of inventory, has continued to decline from a historical high, and the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises has also decreased. Affected by the import corn auction, the spot price has loosened, and the adjustment of the futures price on the disk continues [11] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Farming Capacity - **Pigs**: The sow inventory is in a green area, indicating a loose capacity [17] - **Eggs**: The laying - hen inventory is at a historical high, with loose capacity [17] 3.2 Farming - end Demand - **Pigs**: The pig slaughtering start - up rate is running weakly [21] - **Eggs**: The downstream consumption is average [21] 3.3 Replenishment Prices - **Pigs**: The average price of piglets has been fluctuating weakly recently [24] - **Eggs**: The price of chicken chicks is high [24] 3.4 Basis - **Pigs**: Due to loose capacity and weak expectations, the futures price is weaker than the spot price, and the basis is oscillating at a high level [27] - **Eggs**: The basis shows a weak and volatile trend [27] - **Soybean Meal**: As the arrival of goods increases, the basis is falling [30] - **Corn**: The basis is running weakly [30] 3.5 Production Profits - **Pigs**: Pig - farming profits are weakly oscillating [33] - **Eggs**: Laying - hen farming profits are weakly oscillating [33] - **Soybeans**: The soybean crushing profit is currently running weakly [43] - **Corn**: The starch - corn price difference is weakly oscillating [43] 3.6 Inventory - **Soybeans**: With the increasing arrival of goods, soybean inventory is at a high level, and soybean meal inventory is accumulating due to the recovery of the startup rate [36] - **Corn**: The deep - processing inventory has slightly declined due to less arrivals and strong price - holding willingness of traders; the overall inventory of feed enterprises has also slightly decreased this week [40] 3.7 Industry Terms - **Old Rice**: Usually stored in reserve warehouses for a long time, it can be used for processing fuel ethanol or feed, with a relatively low price. It is a good substitute for corn in feed use, and the auction rhythm of old rice has a certain regulatory effect on the corn market price [44] - **Secondary Fattening**: Farmers buy healthy pigs that have reached the normal slaughter weight (usually 200 - 250 pounds), fatten them for a period to increase their weight to 350 pounds or more, and then sell them to earn the price difference. This model has become popular after African swine fever [44]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the successful development of collective economies in various villages of Jingmen City, particularly in the Duodao District, through industrial integration and leveraging local resources [1][2][3] - The average income of farmers in the district is projected to reach 28,814 yuan in 2024, with an urbanization rate of 85.58% [1] - The district has seen the rapid emergence of three major industries: new energy materials centered around lithium batteries, intelligent equipment manufacturing focused on automobiles, and green chemical industries, with industrial revenue expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - Huazhu Village has successfully constructed 10 technology incubator buildings, generating an annual income of 4.3 million yuan from rentals [1][2] - The village collective has distributed 300,000 yuan in dividends to villagers, and the collective economy's income is expected to exceed 1.1 million yuan this year [2] - Other villages, such as Fengmiao and Jiangshan, have also adopted similar strategies, leading to the growth of collective economies through factory construction and warehouse rentals [2][8] Group 3 - The integration of production and urban development has led to the establishment of various service industries, such as food streets and accommodation facilities, to cater to the needs of industrial workers [5][6][8] - The construction of the Fengming Lake food street has generated significant rental income, with 11 wooden houses earning 80,800 yuan annually and a service building earning 360,000 yuan [5][6] - Villages like Qiling and Qidong have developed food streets to provide convenient dining options for workers, contributing additional income to their collective economies [8] Group 4 - Villages without direct industrial advantages have focused on developing unique local industries to enhance their collective economies [9][11] - For instance, Banmiao Village has established a cattle breeding base, generating an annual income of 300,000 yuan through collective economic activities [11][12] - The district has implemented a tailored approach for each village, assigning leadership and resources to support the development of weaker collective economies [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rebound in CBOT soybean futures due to anticipated increases in U.S. soybean export demand, particularly following Indonesia's commitment to purchase $4.5 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products [1] - The domestic soybean meal supply is currently ample, which is suppressing upward price movement, while downstream inventory levels are nearing saturation due to previous active replenishment [1] - The A-share market saw a rise in the livestock sector, with notable increases in stocks such as Bio-Group (+8.31%), Luo Niu Shan (+2.09%), and others, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the livestock industry [1] Group 2 - The soybean meal ETF (159985) is recognized not only as a standalone investment but also for its long-term investment value in asset allocation, inflation hedging, and roll yield [2] - Soybean meal has a low correlation with the stock market, suggesting that it can be a strategic long-term allocation even if short-term price increases are uncertain [2] - As the largest production variety among 12 oilseed meal feed types, soybean meal has a solid spot market foundation, enhancing its investment appeal [2]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming ETF (159865) has shown a positive performance, with a 0.99% increase on July 16 and a 1.99% rise over the past 10 days [1][3]. Market Analysis - The pig market price has rebounded from a low of 14.1 yuan/kg at the end of June to 15.1 yuan/kg, although there has been a slight decline since then [3]. - The demand for pigs exhibits stable seasonality, with the peak consumption period typically occurring from the fourth quarter to early next year due to the Spring Festival. Currently, the market is in a low-demand season [5]. - The slaughtering rate in the pig industry is slightly higher than the same period last year, but the difference is minimal. Short-term support for pork consumption is lacking due to seasonal factors, such as school vacations and reduced outdoor activities, leading to a decline in group meal demand [5]. Supply Dynamics - The fluctuations in pig prices are primarily driven by supply-side factors, with the industry currently experiencing growth in supply, resulting in a strong supply and weak demand scenario [7]. - As of May, the number of breeding sows was reported at 40.42 million, an increase of 40,000 heads. In June, a sample of enterprises indicated a breeding sow count of 7.0337 million, up by 54,800 heads, which puts pressure on prices [7]. - The recent rebound in pig farming is attributed to expectations regarding supply-side policies and a short-term price increase. However, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance continues to exert downward pressure on future prices [7]. Investment Outlook - Despite the current supply-demand dynamics, the overall increase in the pig farming sector remains relatively low compared to other supply-side reform sectors, such as steel. Investors are advised to monitor the situation and consider buying on dips [7].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.03% at 3503.78 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext both fell by 0.22%. The Sci-Tech Innovation Board rose by 0.44% [1] - Total trading volume across the three markets was 1.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 173.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market sentiment appears balanced but slightly strong, with nearly 3300 stocks rising, indicating a preference for small-cap stocks over large-cap ones [1] Economic Indicators - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at 5.2% year-on-year, with nominal growth at 3.9%, remaining stable compared to Q2 of the previous year [2] - Industrial output, exports, and retail sales showed slight changes, with industrial output at 6.4%, exports at 5.9%, and retail sales at 5.0% [2] - The decline in retail sales is attributed to a significant drop in sectors like dining and beverages, indicating a potential impact on consumer sentiment [2] Price Trends - The cement industry is experiencing a downturn, with the operating rate at its lowest since 2019, and a continuous decline in production since 2022 [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to stabilize and recover by Q2 2024, suggesting a potential bottoming out of capital returns across various sectors [3] Liquidity Conditions - M1 money supply has seen a significant increase due to strong financing in June, leading to higher demand for current deposits [5] - Social financing grew by 4.2 trillion yuan in June, exceeding expectations, indicating an expansion in credit and economic recovery [5] - The debt repayment pressure on enterprises is easing, suggesting a potential end to the current debt repayment cycle [5] Sector Performance - Traditional industries such as coal, oil, and steel are expected to have greater recovery potential compared to TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors, which have seen a significant reduction in low PB stocks [7] - The current market shows a low percentage of stocks with a PB below 20%, indicating a potential shift in investment focus towards traditional sectors [7] Livestock Industry Insights - The pig farming sector is currently facing a supply-driven price fluctuation, with prices rising from 14.1 yuan/kg to 15.1 yuan/kg before experiencing a slight decline [11] - The supply of breeding sows is increasing, which may exert downward pressure on prices in the near term [12] - Despite short-term price rebounds, the overall supply-demand imbalance suggests continued challenges for the livestock market [12]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The notes pertain to the poultry and livestock industry, specifically focusing on the performance of a company involved in the breeding and sale of poultry products, including chickens and eggs. Core Points and Arguments - The average price of gold in the company for 2024 is approximately 12.9 per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.8% [1] - The breeding cost for gold has significantly decreased to 11.7 per kilogram, down 14.6% year-on-year [1] - The overall profitability of the gold sector for 2024 is projected to be around 1.35 billion, with an average profit of 2.6 per kilogram, marking the highest point since 2021 [1] - In Q1, the company produced 120 million gold products, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, with an average sales price of 11 per kilogram, down 14.7% year-on-year [1] - The sales price for the deep soft product segment is 17.3 per kilogram, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [2] - The overall cost for deep soft products is around 14.8 per kilogram, up 18% year-on-year [2] - The company’s output for deep soft products reached 480,000 heads, indicating a significant increase [2] - The yellow feathered chicken segment is expected to achieve good profitability, with prices initially declining but then rising, indicating a recovery phase in the industry [3] - The company anticipates profits of approximately 1.7 billion for 2025 and 1.6 billion for 2026, with a consistent growth rate of 8-10% per year in the gold segment [4] - The decline in costs is attributed to reduced feed prices and increased production capacity [4] - The breeding success rate is reported at 88%, with a survival rate of 94-95% [5] - The cost of weaning has decreased to around 310, with a target of over 300 [5] - The current capacity for breeding sows is between 120,000 to 130,000, with potential for further utilization [5] - The company is considering extending its operations into deep processing but is currently not pursuing this avenue [6] - The company’s market capitalization is noted at 16 billion, considered a strong bottom for investment [6] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The overall industry is experiencing a recovery phase, but the enthusiasm for industry replenishment remains relatively low [3] - The company encourages investors to focus on the improving profitability of the entire sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" theme has gained significant attention in the A-share market, with sectors such as steel, photovoltaic, and building materials experiencing substantial growth in recent weeks [1][2][6]. Market Performance - Over the past 18 trading days (from June 20 to July 15), the steel, building materials, and power equipment sectors have all seen increases exceeding 8% [1]. - The photovoltaic equipment index has risen by 15.55% during the same period [4]. - Specific sector performances include: components up 20.35%, glass and fiberglass up 20.21%, photovoltaic equipment up 15.55%, and ordinary steel up 12.75% [5]. Policy Influence - The "anti-involution" theme is driven by recent policy discussions, particularly the emphasis on reducing low-price competition and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [2][6]. - The central government's focus on building a unified national market and addressing key challenges has catalyzed this market trend [2]. Industry Focus - Key industries benefiting from the "anti-involution" theme include traditional sectors like steel and cement, as well as emerging industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [6][7]. - The current "anti-involution" policies are primarily concentrated on four major sectors: photovoltaics, e-commerce, automobiles, and steel [7]. Investment Opportunities - Investment institutions are increasingly allocating resources to sectors involved in the "anti-involution" theme, particularly those with historically low valuations and significant recovery potential [8][9]. - Analysts suggest focusing on industries with low valuations and potential for improved competitive dynamics, such as upstream photovoltaic, real estate, and livestock sectors [9][10]. Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" market is expected to unfold in three phases: the current expectation phase driven by policy, a subsequent phase of rising resource prices, and finally a phase where high prices stabilize [1][11]. - The market may not follow a straightforward three-phase pattern, as past experiences suggest that price reactions could occur earlier and more concentrated in leading stocks [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 190 million and 260 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 115 million and 185 million yuan [1] - The company has experienced year-on-year growth in sales of feed, poultry, and pigs during the reporting period [1] Cost and Pricing Factors - Major feed raw material prices, such as soybean meal and corn, are operating at low levels, contributing to improved profitability [1] - The costs associated with pig and poultry farming have decreased year-on-year, further enhancing the company's overall operational efficiency [1]