智通财经APP获悉，华西证券发布研究报告称，复盘历史，A股"春季躁动"行情启动通常需满足以下条 件：合理的估值水平、宽松的流动性环境以及有效提振风险偏好的催化剂，如国内政策、产业事件催化 或外部风险缓释等。当前来看，海外美联储降息和日本央行加息均已落地，市场对套利交易逆转担忧缓 解，后续人民币汇率升值带动的外资增配、年初保费收入"开门红"带来的增量保险资金入市亦可以期 待。近期股票型ETF再度大规模净申购，多只宽基ETF成交放量，指向增量资金倾向于逢低布局。 华西证券主要观点如下： 市场回顾：本周全球股指多数下跌，韩国综合指数、恒生科技和日经225指领跌。A股成交再度缩量， 万得全A日均成交额回落至1.76万亿元附近，市场情绪趋于谨慎，主要指数中科创50和创业板指领跌， 资金轮动至红利板块。风格上，金融和消费板块上涨，一级行业中，商贸零售、非银金融、美容护理、 社会服务领涨;成长风格下跌，电子和电力设备指数跌超3%。大宗商品方面，COMEX白银大涨8.7%， 铜铝价格震荡上行，双焦底部反弹。外汇方面，日央行加息落地后，日元对美元汇率走贬，人民币对美 元则延续升值态势。 一、复盘历史，除2021和2022年外， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that most primary industry sectors have shown upward movement, but the growth is generally moderate, with retail, non-bank financials, beauty care, and social services leading the gains due to the increasing importance of domestic demand strategies and related policy expectations [1] - The retail, beauty care, and social service sectors have performed well as a result of the sustained emphasis on domestic demand, while the non-bank financial sector has been boosted by the recovery in brokerage and insurance sectors [1] - Conversely, sectors such as electronics, electrical equipment, and machinery have experienced the largest declines, attributed to profit-taking in the electric equipment sector and a lack of catalysts in the machinery sector [1] Group 2 - In terms of investment direction, defensive low-yield dividend sectors like coal and oil & petrochemicals are recommended for short-term positioning, while non-bank financials should be considered for adjustments to capture market beta opportunities [2] - There is potential for a recovery in cyclical sectors related to domestic demand, such as consumer goods, driven by policy expectations [2] - Growth-oriented sectors, particularly those benefiting from AI and semiconductors, should focus on leading companies with strong earnings certainty, as well as sectors like embodied intelligence and innovative pharmaceuticals that may see progress next year [2]

Market Review - Global stock indices mostly declined this week, with the Korean Composite Index, Hang Seng Tech, and Nikkei 225 leading the losses. A-shares saw a decrease in trading volume, with the average daily turnover of the Wind All A Index falling to approximately 1.76 trillion yuan. Market sentiment has turned cautious, with the ChiNext 50 and ChiNext Index leading the declines, while funds rotated into dividend sectors. In terms of styles, the financial and consumer sectors rose, while growth styles fell, with the electronics and power equipment indices dropping over 3%. In the commodity market, COMEX silver surged by 8.7%, and copper and aluminum prices fluctuated upward, while coking coal rebounded from the bottom. In the foreign exchange market, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the yen depreciated against the dollar, while the renminbi continued to appreciate against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "Spring Rally" is accumulating positive factors, with a focus on buying on dips. Historically, the initiation of the A-share "Spring Rally" typically requires reasonable valuation levels, a loose liquidity environment, and effective catalysts to boost risk appetite, such as domestic policies, industrial events, or external risk alleviation. Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike have been implemented, easing concerns about the reversal of arbitrage trades. The subsequent appreciation of the renminbi is expected to attract foreign capital, and the "good start" of insurance premium income at the beginning of the year is also anticipated to bring incremental insurance funds into the market. Recently, stock ETFs have seen large-scale net subscriptions, with multiple broad-based ETFs experiencing increased trading volume, indicating that incremental funds are inclined to buy on dips [2][5]. Historical Review - A review of history shows that, except for 2021 and 2022, the A-share market has often exhibited a "Spring Rally" calendar effect over the past decade. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the A-share market is in a "vacuum period" for economic data and corporate earnings reports, making it easier for the market to engage in thematic investments based on policy expectations and industrial trends. Since 2016, there have been 8 instances of "Spring Rally" in the A-share market. The timing of these rallies typically starts between December and January and lasts for 20 to 60 trading days [3][4]. Necessary Conditions for "Spring Rally" - The initiation of the "Spring Rally" requires several necessary conditions: 1) A reasonable market valuation range, as the elasticity of the rally is highly correlated with market valuation levels. In the years with the largest index gains during the past decade's Spring Rallies, the market had generally undergone sufficient adjustments beforehand. For instance, at the beginning of 2016, the "circuit breaker" triggered a liquidity feedback shock, leading to a sharp decline in major A-share indices; at the beginning of 2019, after previous declines, the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was only 10 times; and in early February 2024, liquidity shocks from products like Xueqiu and quantitative funds brought the CSI 300 Index's price-to-earnings ratio back to around 10 times [4]. 2) A sustained loose liquidity environment with inflows of incremental funds. For example, in early 2018, the central bank implemented targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts, and in early 2019 and 2020, the central bank conducted comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts to maintain macro liquidity. In early 2023, there was a significant inflow of foreign capital, and in early 2025, regulatory authorities are expected to promote the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market [4]. 3) Domestic policies, industrial event catalysts, or external risk alleviation that drive risk appetite upward. For example, in early 2016, supply-side reforms; in early 2019, progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations; in January 2020, the signing of the first-phase trade agreement between China and the U.S.; at the end of 2022, the optimization of epidemic prevention policies and the "three arrows" for real estate; in February 2024, an unexpected reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR); and in early 2025, catalysts from trends in industries like DeepSeek and robotics [4][5]. Accumulating Positive Conditions - Positive conditions for the "Spring Rally" are accumulating, with a focus on buying on dips: 1) In terms of overseas liquidity, the dovish interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been implemented, leading to a weaker yen against the dollar and easing pressures from arbitrage trades. The Federal Reserve's expected dovish rate cuts in December are closely tied to the leadership transition, with the overall market expectation for the Fed's policy direction remaining loose [5]. 2) Domestically, the Central Economic Work Conference has set the tone for "continuing to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy," indicating that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [5]. 3) On the micro liquidity front, this week saw large-scale net subscriptions for stock ETFs, with multiple broad-based ETFs experiencing increased trading volume, boosting market sentiment. The anticipated inflow of foreign capital driven by the appreciation of the renminbi and the incremental insurance funds from the "good start" of premium income at the beginning of the year can also be expected [5]. 4) In terms of valuation, the current price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index is 14 times, which is at the 76th percentile since 2010, below the historical median plus one standard deviation [5]. 5) From a policy perspective, the Central Economic Work Conference has laid a positive foundation, with 2026 marking the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and incremental policies in areas such as technological innovation, anti-involution, and expanding domestic demand are expected to continue to be introduced [5]. Industry Allocation Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on: 1) Growth directions benefiting from industrial policy support, such as domestic substitution, robotics, aerospace, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy storage [5]. 2) Cyclical directions benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as chemicals, energy metals, and resource products [5]. 3) The deepening of consumption-promoting policies may bring short-term catalytic opportunities for the consumer sector [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights the "spring market rally" effect, indicating that from the Central Economic Work Conference to the National People's Congress, the A-share market typically experiences a rally, with an average increase of 18.30% over 57 days based on historical data from 2009 to 2025 [4][7] - The report suggests that the market is expected to gradually enter a "spring market rally" phase, driven by increased liquidity and risk appetite, alongside favorable domestic policy expectations [4][7] - Key sectors to focus on include commercial aerospace, satellite industry, national defense, AI applications, and new consumption areas such as health, cultural tourism, and pet economy, which are expected to benefit from policy support [4][14][16] Group 2 - The macroeconomic recovery foundation remains to be solidified, with fixed asset investment declining by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, indicating a need for policy measures to boost domestic demand [8][11] - The report notes that public budget expenditure increased by 1.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in social security, technology, and environmental protection spending, reflecting a focus on improving livelihoods and technological advancement [11] - The Japanese central bank's recent interest rate hike is expected to have limited impact on global markets, as the market had already priced in this increase, suggesting a continued trend of easing liquidity globally [12] Group 3 - The report provides an overview of A-share market performance, noting a slight increase in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.03% and a decrease in the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.89% during the specified week [17] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was reported at 17,380.31 billion, reflecting a decrease of 10.12% compared to the previous week [17] - The report also highlights the performance of various sectors, with retail, non-bank financials, and beauty care showing the highest gains [17][20]

来源：策略李立峰与行业配置笔记 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 投资要点 市场回顾：本周全球股指多数下跌，韩国综合指数、恒生科技和日经225指领跌。A股成交再度缩量， 万得全A日均成交额回落至1.76万亿元附近，市场情绪趋于谨慎，主要指数中科创50和创业板指领跌， 资金轮动至红利板块。风格上，金融和消费板块上涨，一级行业中，商贸零售、非银金融、美容护理、 社会服务领涨；成长风格下跌，电子和电力设备指数跌超3%。大宗商品方面，COMEX白银大涨 8.7%，铜铝价格震荡上行，双焦底部反弹。外汇方面，日央行加息落地后，日元对美元汇率走贬，人 民币对美元则延续升值态势。 市场展望："春季躁动"行情积极因素累积，逢低布局为主。复盘历史，A股"春季躁动"行情启动通常需 满足以下条件：合理的估值水平、宽松的流动性环境以及有效提振风险偏好的催化剂，如国内政策、产 业事件催化或外部风险缓释等。当前来看，海外美联储降息和日本央行加息均已落地，市场对套利交易 逆转担忧缓解，后续人民币汇率升值带动的外资增配、年初保费收入"开门红"带来的增量保险资金入市 亦可以期待。近期股票型ETF再度大规模 ...

- The report discusses the impact of year-end liquidity disturbances on the market, suggesting that the recent adjustments are temporary and do not alter the upward trend[1][10] - The main investment theme is shifting from technology to cyclical sectors, with recommendations for chemical ETFs, dividend ETFs, and brokerage ETFs[1][10] - The report highlights the importance of the dollar depreciation as a key factor supporting the A-share market's slow bull trend[1][10] - The report mentions the use of a fund position monitoring model to track the allocation of funds, noting increased allocations in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and transportation[1][11] - The report indicates that the technology sector's internal growth rate is slowing down, and the market is transitioning to cyclical sectors[1][11] - The report suggests that the recent market adjustments are due to year-end liquidity disturbances, with quantitative private equity products reducing their risk exposure significantly[1][12] - The report notes that the dollar depreciation trend, supported by lower-than-expected US CPI data, will continue to provide effective support for the A-share market's upward movement[1][13] - The report includes a section on timing strategies, mentioning the use of price segmentation systems and insider trading activity indicators[14][15] - The report provides industry monitoring data, including analysts' industry sentiment expectations and financing and securities lending trends[19][21] - The report discusses the performance of BARRA style factors, noting changes in market preferences and the performance of various factors such as turnover, financial leverage, and profitability volatility[24][25]

推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温，投资者要逐步适应在一个人民币持续升值的 环境下去做资产配置。从过去20年间7轮人民币升值周期来看，汇率并不是主导行业配置的决定性因 素。然而，部分行业在持续升值预期形成的初期确实会有更好表现，市场可能会复制这样的肌肉记忆， 同时从成本收入分析来看，约19%的行业会因为升值带来利润率提升，这些行业也会逐步被投资者重视 起来。此外，为抑制过快单边升值趋势而做出的政策应对，反而是影响行业配置的更重要因素。行业配 置上，在人民币持续升值的背景下，可以关注短期肌肉记忆驱动、利润率变化驱动以及政策变化驱动三 条线索，我们在本期聚焦详细梳理了潜在受益行业。 推动人民币持续升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温 我们认为投资者要逐步开始适应在一个人民币持续升值的环境下去做资产配置。今年前11个月中国的累 计贸易顺差达到1.076万亿美元，同比增长21.7%，创历史新高。更重要的是出口企业的结汇意愿开始不 断上升，今年10月顺差转化为顺收的比例已经超过100%，这是与过去几年最大的差异。2022年以来， 我们估算出口商积累的待结汇规模为1万亿美元左右，一旦人民币升值预期形成 ...

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has contracted this week, with the retail trade sector leading the gains. The Ministry of Commerce recently held a meeting to promote the "Three New" (new consumption formats, new models, new scenarios) pilot work, providing policy support for industry recovery. The concept of "reward economy" has emerged, further boosting sentiment in the consumption sector. Currently, the overall PB (LF) of the retail trade sector is at the historical 37.0 percentile, indicating significant room for valuation improvement [1][8]. Valuation Overview - This week, the overall PE (TTM) of A-shares decreased from 21.74 times last week to 21.73 times this week, while the PB (LF) remained stable at 1.77 times [10]. - The main board's PE (TTM) increased from 17.46 times last week to 17.54 times this week, and the PB (LF) rose from 1.48 times to 1.49 times [17]. - The ChiNext's PE (TTM) fell from 72.27 times to 71.32 times, and the PB (LF) decreased from 4.27 times to 4.21 times [19]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board's PE (TTM) dropped from 210.87 times to 205.59 times, and the PB (LF) fell from 5.17 times to 5.04 times [25]. Relative Valuation Analysis - The relative PE (TTM) of computing power infrastructure, excluding operators/resource categories, decreased from 4.47 times last week to 4.28 times this week, while the relative PB (LF) fell from 4.66 times to 4.46 times [28]. - In terms of static PE (TTM), major industries such as discretionary consumption, consumer staples, midstream manufacturing, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with discretionary consumption and consumer staples exceeding the historical 90th percentile [32]. - From the perspective of PB (LF), industries like resources, TMT, cyclical, and midstream manufacturing have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, while discretionary consumption, midstream materials, financial services, services, and consumer staples are below the historical median [34]. Dynamic Valuation Insights - Analyzing the full dynamic PE, industries such as discretionary consumption, midstream manufacturing, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with discretionary consumption exceeding the historical 90th percentile [41]. - The current comparison of odds (PB historical percentiles) and win rates (ROE historical percentiles) indicates that industries like agriculture, public utilities, and oil and petrochemicals exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [59]. - The comparison of odds (full dynamic PE) and win rates (25-26 consensus expected net profit compound growth rate) shows that industries such as building materials, power equipment, media, and defense industry possess both low valuations and high performance growth [62]. ERP and Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares increased from 0.87% last week to 0.89% this week, while the equity-debt yield spread improved from -0.12% to -0.05% [63]. - The full dynamic ERP of key non-financial companies in A-shares rose from 2.77% to 2.80% this week [70].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company, targeting a price of RMB 9.45 based on a 45x PE for 2026 [7][30]. Core Insights - The company is expected to leverage its core resources from the "Two Dams and One Gorge" to transition from sightseeing to vacation experiences, enhancing overall customer transaction values and profit levels. The planned inter-provincial cruise project is anticipated to be a new growth driver, with existing business recovery and cruise project volume increase likely to elevate profit and valuation [7][30]. - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 112 million, RMB 153 million, and RMB 206 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with EPS of RMB 0.16, RMB 0.21, and RMB 0.28 [7][30]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline to RMB 741 million in 2024, followed by a gradual increase to RMB 1,326 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.1% from 2025 to 2027 [2][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to show significant growth, with a forecast of RMB 130 million in 2023, declining slightly to RMB 118 million in 2024, and then increasing to RMB 206 million by 2027, indicating a robust recovery trajectory [2][5]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 31.35% in 2024 to 33.82% in 2027, driven by increased operational efficiency and higher-value offerings [10]. Demand Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 286 million from tourism services, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.20%. The number of cruise passengers reached 1.25 million, a 10.96% increase compared to the previous year, indicating strong demand recovery [31][14]. - Factors contributing to this growth include enhanced marketing efforts, increased product offerings, and improved operational capacity, which have collectively boosted market recognition and customer engagement [14][31]. Supply Analysis - The regulatory environment has tightened, with the Yangtze River Authority implementing strict controls on new inter-provincial passenger ship transport enterprises, which stabilizes competition and enhances supply constraints [32][20]. - The company plans to construct and operate four large leisure cruise ships, with the first two expected to launch in June and December 2026, and the remaining two in June 2028. This initiative aims to capitalize on the controlled supply environment and enhance profit flexibility [33][21]. Conclusion - The report highlights the company's strategic positioning within the tourism sector, emphasizing its potential for growth through innovative offerings and regulatory advantages. The combination of a solid customer base, new cruise projects, and a favorable market environment positions the company for significant future profitability and valuation enhancement [7][30][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company with a target price of 9.45 CNY [5][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in demand and the advancement of its inter-provincial cruise project, which is anticipated to open new business growth and profit flexibility [2][12]. - The company aims to transition from a purely sightseeing model to a vacation-oriented model, enhancing overall customer spending and profit levels through the introduction of four inter-provincial cruise ships [12][16]. - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 112 million CNY, 153 million CNY, and 206 million CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.16 CNY, 0.21 CNY, and 0.28 CNY [16][19]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 1,600 million CNY in 2023 to 741 million CNY in 2024, followed by a gradual increase to 1,326 million CNY by 2027 [4][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to show significant growth from 130 million CNY in 2023 to 206 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a substantial increase in profitability [4][13]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 4.2% in 2023 to 6.3% in 2027, indicating improved financial performance [4][13]. Demand Analysis - The company reported a 20.20% year-on-year increase in tourism revenue to 286 million CNY in the first half of 2025, driven by a rise in visitor numbers and product price adjustments [22][23]. - The number of tourists served by the cruise products reached 1.2525 million, marking a 10.96% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a strong recovery in demand [22][23]. Supply Analysis - The regulatory environment has tightened, with new restrictions on the establishment of inter-provincial passenger transport companies, which is expected to stabilize the competitive landscape [26][28]. - The company plans to build and operate four large leisure cruise ships, with the first two expected to be operational by June and December 2026, respectively [29][30].