1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The current period shows a significant decline in apparent demand, with steel prices weakening and a notable drop in night - trading. Despite the May Day holiday factor, the decline is greater than in previous years. Steel prices weakened first while iron ore remained strong, leading to a lower steel - ore ratio. Considering high production, if demand weakens, steel mills are expected to cut production. With relatively low steel inventories, unilateral operations are recommended to be on hold for now. Arbitrage operations of going long on steel and short on raw materials can be considered[1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore was weakly running, affected by the news of crude steel production cuts. The price of iron ore is under continuous upward pressure. Fundamentally, this week's average daily hot metal production increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level. The social inventory of finished products generally increased, and the apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The profitability of steel mills improved slightly, and hot metal production may continue to stay high in the short term. Looking forward, the terminal demand for finished products determines the sustainability of high hot metal production. The marginal changes lie in exports and infrastructure. In reality, with high hot metal production, iron ore inventory is basically stable, but from May to June, overseas mines will increase shipments, and the subsequent supply - demand pressure for iron ore will increase. Coupled with the increasing expectation of crude steel production cuts, the iron ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure[3]. Coke - As of May 8, coke futures showed a volatile downward trend. The second round of spot price increases for coke has encountered resistance and is currently in a game stage. Considering the weak situation of coking coal, the second - round price increase may not materialize. After the holiday, the ex - factory price of coke will remain stable in the short term, and the port trade price will run weakly. On the supply side, due to the high hot metal production of downstream steel mills, coke enterprises have good orders, and their production and profits have improved. On the demand side, after the holiday, hot metal production remained above 245,000 tons per day, and steel mills replenished inventory as needed, without obvious inventory accumulation. It is necessary to pay attention to whether hot metal production will decline in the future. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coking plants and steel mills has been decreasing, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. Although the fundamentals of coke have improved, the weakness of coking coal, over - capacity, and the lack of pricing power of coke enterprises are the main reasons for the weak decline of coke prices. It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts[5]. Coking Coal - As of May 8, coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend. After the May Day holiday, the market auction was cold again, and the pattern of loose supply and demand was difficult to reverse in the short term. On the supply side, domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and production was at a relatively high level. In terms of imported coal, before the holiday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased significantly, and the import profit of seaborne coal continued to be negative. On the demand side, as the downstream blast furnaces and coking plants continued to operate, the inventory was still purchased on - demand. After the holiday, hot metal production remained above 245,000 tons per day. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be a decline in the future. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coal mines continued to accumulate at a high level, with pressure to reduce prices and sell. The port inventory decreased rapidly, and the downstream inventory was at a low level. Coal prices are still in a downward trend. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main factors causing the decline in coal prices. It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts[5]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures' main contract oscillated. Spot traders mainly replenished stocks, and the willingness for speculative inventory was limited. Fundamentally, ferrosilicon production increased slightly month - on - month. After previous production cuts, the supply pressure was relieved, and factory inventories stopped increasing and started to decline. However, the overall inventory was still at a medium - high level. On the demand side, hot metal production remained high, steel mill profits were restored, and the social inventory of finished products increased while the apparent demand reached a peak and then declined. Attention should be paid to the subsequent marginal changes in exports. In non - steel demand, the pre - holiday inventory reduction of metal iron manufacturers supported prices, but downstream demand and procurement were low. At the same time, although overseas quotations were high, the trading volume decreased, and buyers had limited acceptance of high prices. In terms of cost, the price of semi - coke remained stable. With low inventory and reduced supply, the supply - demand contradiction was limited. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will oscillate in the short term[7]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese price continued to oscillate and explore downward, without macro - level fluctuations. Fundamentally, ferromanganese continued to cut production. Currently, the loss of manufacturers in Ningxia has deepened, and the production enthusiasm continued to weaken. Some factories in Inner Mongolia will conduct routine inspections, and most factories in Guangxi still maintain production and load reduction. With the arrival of the wet season in Yunnan, production increased slightly. On the demand side, hot metal production remained high, steel mill profits were restored, and the social inventory of finished products increased while the apparent demand reached a peak and then declined. Attention should be paid to the subsequent marginal changes in exports. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory still decreased significantly under production cuts, and the supply - demand contradiction deepened further. In terms of manganese ore, the global manganese ore shipments decreased month - on - month, and the short - term arrival volume remained high. The seaborne inventory of non - mainstream mines in China was at a high level. Currently, the import profit of port traders was negative, and manganese ore was under the pressure of negative feedback and potential supply release. It is expected that the ferromanganese price will oscillate weakly in the short term[7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in various regions decreased, and the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts also declined. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed[1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of billets decreased, and the costs of various steel production processes changed. The profits of different regions and varieties of steel increased[1]. Production and Inventory - The average daily hot metal production increased slightly, and the production of five major steel products decreased. The inventory of five major steel products increased, and the inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased[1]. Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for steel decreased significantly, including the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils[1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The costs of different types of iron ore warehouse receipts decreased, and the prices and spreads of futures contracts changed. The spot prices of iron ore in ports decreased, and the prices of price indices increased slightly[3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports, global shipments, and monthly national import volume decreased[3]. Demand - The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills, the average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports, monthly national pig iron production, and monthly national crude steel production increased[3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports decreased slightly, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased[3]. Coke Price and Spread - The spot prices of coke in various regions remained unchanged, and the prices of coke futures contracts decreased. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed. The coking profit increased significantly[5]. Supply - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly[5]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased slightly[5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased, and the inventories of coking plants, steel mills, and ports all decreased[5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The supply - demand gap of coke increased negatively, indicating a more serious oversupply situation[5]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The spot prices of coking coal in various regions remained unchanged, and the prices of coking coal futures contracts decreased. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed. The profit of sample coal mines decreased slightly[5]. Supply - The production of domestic coal mines increased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased. The import profit of seaborne coal was negative[5]. Demand - The demand for coking coal was mainly on - demand procurement, and hot metal production remained high[5]. Inventory - The inventory of coal mines continued to accumulate at a high level, the port inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory was at a low level[5]. Ferrosilicon Price and Spread - The price of the ferrosilicon futures' main contract increased slightly, and the spot prices in some regions remained unchanged while others decreased. The spread between the ferrosilicon and ferromanganese main contracts decreased[7]. Cost and Profit - The costs of ferrosilicon production in different regions remained stable, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased[7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises increased[7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the production and operating rate of ferrosilicon - chromium decreased[7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased, and the average number of available days for downstream ferrosilicon decreased[7]. Ferromanganese Price and Spread - The price of the ferromanganese futures' main contract increased significantly, and the spot prices in various regions decreased. The spreads between different regions and the main contract changed[7]. Cost and Profit - The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port changed, and the costs of ferromanganese production in different regions decreased slightly[7]. Supply - The global manganese ore shipments increased slightly, the arrival volume increased significantly, and the port inventory decreased[7]. Demand - The weekly production of ferromanganese decreased, and the operating rate decreased. The demand for ferromanganese from steel mills remained high[7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the average number of available days for ferromanganese increased[7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term cautious long [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term cautious long [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term cautious short (steel and iron ore), short - term range - bound for ferroalloys [6][7][8] - **Energy Chemicals**: Varying trends, mostly short - term follow - up with crude oil and range - bound [9][10][11][12][13][14] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term limited upside for copper, short - term fluctuations for tin, and attention to aluminum's de - stocking [15][16] - **Agricultural Products**: Different trends for various sub - sectors, such as potential increase in domestic rapeseed buying interest, and complex trends for others [17][18][19] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macro Perspective**: Overseas, the US - UK limited trade agreement and a significant drop in US initial jobless claims led to a short - term sharp rebound in the US dollar and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, progress in China - US trade negotiations, central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, and policy support for consumption are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [3]. - **Asset Allocation**: Short - term, equity indices may rebound with caution, treasury bonds may oscillate at high levels with caution, and different commodity sectors have different trends, generally with a cautious approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Macro** - Overseas: Trump announced a limited US - UK trade agreement, and the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, causing the US dollar to rebound and global risk appetite to rise [3]. - Domestic: China - US high - level talks in Switzerland showed progress, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rate by 10BP, and the Ministry of Commerce planned to boost consumption, which is expected to increase domestic risk appetite [3]. **Equity Index** - Driven by sectors like military, auto services, and industrial equipment, the domestic stock market continued to rise. Favorable policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long is recommended [4]. **Precious Metals** - The precious metals market declined on Thursday. The weakening of gold's safe - haven property due to the easing of trade tensions and the unclear US economic outlook. However, gold has long - term allocation value, and long - term positions can be built using a ratio spread structure if it corrects [4][5]. **Black Metals** - **Steel**: The steel market declined on Thursday. As May is the off - season, demand has decreased, and supply may also decline. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore declined on Thursday. Steel demand is weakening, and although the current iron ore supply is low, it is expected to increase in the second quarter. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are in a range - bound pattern, and a short - term range - bound view is recommended [7][8]. **Energy Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The US - UK trade agreement increased market confidence, leading to an increase in oil prices [9]. - **Asphalt**: The price followed crude oil and then rebounded. Inventory removal has stagnated, and it will continue to follow crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: It rebounded, and it will maintain a tight balance and an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: It will continue to reduce inventory in May, but there is a risk of a decline in downstream profits. It may oscillate at a high level in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is in a weak oscillation, and the inventory removal time will be postponed [10]. - **Short Fiber**: The downstream processing profit is decreasing, and it will oscillate at a high level following crude oil [11]. - **Methanol**: The price is oscillating downward, and the medium - term price may be under pressure [11][12]. - **PP**: The market price declined slightly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the medium - term may face demand negative feedback [13]. - **LLDPE**: The price is weakly adjusted. The downstream demand is weak, and the medium - term price is under pressure [14]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment, but high tariffs will limit the upside. The demand is about to enter the off - season [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory has decreased recently, but there has been cumulative inventory since May. The short - term may still fluctuate, and long positions should be gradually closed [16]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The short - term price will oscillate [16]. **Agricultural Products** - **US Soybeans**: About 15% of the US soybean planting area is affected by drought, and Canadian rapeseed may face adverse weather [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The oil mill operating rate increased, and the market's concern about the pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals has decreased. The spot basis price is high, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is increasing [17][18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The international oil market had a technical adjustment. The domestic oil market has a weak fundamental situation, and the palm oil price may continue to decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The piglet replenishment enthusiasm is average, and there may be pressure on the market in July. The price of LH09 may be more volatile [18]. - **Corn**: The short - term demand for deep - processing has decreased seasonally, and the futures price may decline for correction. The price increase is met with cautious downstream acceptance [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and rising high, with the military sector remaining hot. The bond market is expected to be volatile and may strengthen in the medium term. The prices of precious metals are under pressure in the short term but may rise in the long term. The shipping index is expected to have a seasonal peak, and the prices of non-ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macroeconomics [2][6][9] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market opened low and rose high, with major indices rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, but all had negative basis. The A-share trading volume decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options or go long on the June IM contract [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed higher, and the yields of major interest rate bonds decreased. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the capital interest rate, fundamentals, and tariff negotiations [5][6] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell significantly due to the easing of trade risks and the outflow of long funds. Silver prices were relatively stable. In the long term, gold prices may rise due to economic recession risks and diversification needs. In the short term, they are under pressure due to the improvement of risk appetite. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral operations or sell out-of-the-money call options [9][10][11] Container Shipping Index - The quotes of leading shipping companies were relatively stable. The SCFIS European line index decreased, while the US West line index increased. The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was weak. It is recommended to go long on the August contract or widen the August - June spread [12][13] Commodity Futures Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The supply was affected by the accident at the Antamina copper mine, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 [13][16][18] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc increased, but the trading volume was poor. The supply of zinc ore was loose, but the production of refined zinc was affected by maintenance. The demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 21,500 - 23,500 [18][19][21] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin increased, and the trading volume increased slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the supply is expected to recover. The demand was improved by policies, but the outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds [21][22][23] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel decreased, and the trading volume was average. The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 122,000 - 128,000 [23][26] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the trading volume was poor. The supply was excessive, and the demand was slowly recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [27][29] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was light. The supply increased, and the demand was average. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 63,000 - 68,000 [31][34] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price of steel decreased, and the production was high. The demand decreased during the May Day holiday, and the inventory increased. The profit of blast furnace steel mills was stable, while that of electric furnace steel mills was in loss. It is recommended to wait and see in unilateral operations and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel and short on raw materials [35][36] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The demand for iron ore was high, but the supply increased. The inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the policy and the terminal demand of steel products [37][38] - **Coke**: The spot price of coke had demand support, but the second price increase was blocked. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [39][40][41] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The supply was high, and the demand was average. The inventory was high. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [42][44] - **Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron was stable, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [45][46] - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price of manganese silicon decreased, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [48][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of US soybeans fluctuated, and the price of domestic soybean meal followed weakly. The domestic soybean meal market price was mixed, and the trading volume increased. The supply of US soybeans was sufficient, and the domestic soybean arrival was abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the support near 2,900 [51][53] - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs fluctuated slightly. The supply of hogs was stable, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the performance of secondary fattening and slaughter [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was strong, and the price was in a high - level shock. The supply of corn was tight, and the demand was limited. The price is expected to be supported in the long term but may be under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [57][58] - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar fluctuated weakly, and the domestic sugar price followed. The supply of sugar was expected to increase, and the domestic supply - demand situation was loose. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds in the medium - long term [59]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the concern of demand reaching the peak, which puts pressure on the ore price [2] - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Although the steel mill production is stable and the ore demand is at a high level, the poor performance of steel prices and the hidden worries of steel demand lead to concerns about the peak of ore demand. Meanwhile, the supply of iron ore has returned to a high level, so the ore price is under pressure and runs weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, the short - term is weak and volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weak and volatile. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic of demand reaching the peak concern and the ore price under pressure [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of iron ore has weakened. The steel mill production is stable, and the ore demand is at a high level, which supports the ore price. However, the poor steel price and the hidden worries of steel demand lead to concerns about the peak of ore demand, and the positive effect is weakening. Overseas miners are actively shipping, the domestic ore supply is stable, the iron ore supply has returned to a high level, and there is still an expectation of increase. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, and the ore price is under pressure and runs weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [3]

黑色产业日报 周三，螺纹钢期货价格冲高回落，杭州中天螺纹钢 3220 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 122（-11），7 日上午国新办举行新闻 发布会，央行等多部门介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有 关情况，货币政策利多落地，盘面高开低走，目前市场仍在期待财政政 策发力。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附近， 仅仅高于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，预计 中美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较 小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需求季节性下滑，市场预 期偏弱，关注限产政策是否落地，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花 顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 供给方面，全球发运季节性回升，近期国内进口矿到港有所增长，港口 铁矿库存仍呈现小幅上升态势。需求方面，铁水产量大幅增长，钢厂产 能利用率提升。月末钢厂复产节奏加快，成材价格暂稳，钢厂生产积极 性提高。市场存在粗钢限产预期，但尚未见到具体政策文件出台，五千 万吨限产相较总量仍然较少，正反馈难以形成，矿价仍是弱势。基本面 铁矿属于供需均有走弱趋势，但即将进 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and weakly volatile intraday. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line, as the fundamental outlook is weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. High supply and demand co - exist, the fundamentals have not improved, and there are concerns about demand reaching its peak. The ore price is under pressure, but the macro - environment is warming. The ore price will continue to run in a weakly volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that the fundamental outlook is weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of iron ore shows high supply and demand. Steel mills are actively producing during the peak season, and ore demand is good, supporting the ore price. However, the profit situation of steel mills is changing, and there is an expectation of weakening steel demand, so the incremental space for ore demand is limited. Overseas ore supply remains high, and domestic ore supply is stable, so the supply pressure of iron ore persists. The fundamentals have not improved, and there are concerns about demand reaching its peak. The ore price is under pressure, while the macro - environment is warming. The ore price will continue to run in a weakly volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2].

Report Information - Date: May 8, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has a specific outlook, such as price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and the impact of macro - economic and industry news [2][4]. Commodity Summaries Precious Metals - **Gold**: Slight progress in Sino - US negotiations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The prices of different gold contracts showed various changes, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings [5][6][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Silver prices also showed fluctuations in different contracts [5][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories limit price declines. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. There are supply - demand changes in the copper market, and some companies' production has increased [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Some alumina enterprises plan to cut production [14][15]. - **Zinc**: Operating under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Zinc prices and inventory data have changed [16][17]. - **Lead**: Weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19][20]. - **Nickel**: The price range has narrowed, and nickel prices have returned to narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Some Indonesian nickel projects' production capacity utilization is increasing [22][24]. - **Tin**: Prices weakened during the holiday. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [25][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Weak demand, with a weak performance in the futures market. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Panasonic is exiting the solar and energy storage business, affecting the industry [30][32]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price hit a new low since listing. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [30][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The cost center continues to move down, and the inventory build - up pattern restricts price rebounds. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policies [36][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Poor demand expectations, with prices fluctuating at low levels. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [40][41][44]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by macro factors, prices are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [45][48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and coking coal is affected by the sentiment of coal terminal desilting, also showing a weak trend. The trend strength of both is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [49][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Affected by the sentiment of forced desilting at ports, prices are oscillating weakly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [53][55]. Other Commodities - **Glass**: The price of glass original sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [56][57][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Positive spread arbitrage between months, with expanding processing margins. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply disruptions and trade negotiations affect the price [60][63][65]. - **PTA**: Long PTA and short SC. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The supply - demand pattern is changing, with some device maintenance [60][64][66]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply is expected to increase, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory [60][66][67]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Vietnam's rubber export situation is changing, and the new supply is expected to increase gradually [68][70][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas demand remains strong, and China's exports are at a high level. In Jan - Mar 2025, overseas crude steel production totaled 20,928 kt, a y-o-y decrease of 1.5%; overseas crude steel consumption totaled 23,879 kt, a y-o-y increase of 0.60%, with March consumption hitting a record monthly high; China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 2,951 kt, a significant y-o-y increase of 18.2%; overseas total iron production totaled 13,006 kt, a y-o-y decrease of 1.2%, equivalent to a decrease of 253 kt in iron ore consumption, with overseas total iron production growing by 1.5% in March, the highest growth rate since March last year [3][16][86]. - Domestic demand is still resilient, and iron ore consumption has increased year-on-year. In Jan - Mar 2025, China's domestic crude steel production totaled 26,300 kt, flat y-o-y, with March production showing a significant y-o-y increase; domestic crude steel consumption totaled 22,403 kt, with consumption continuing to recover; domestic pig iron production totaled 21,712 kt, a y-o-y increase of 1.6%, equivalent to an increase of 541 kt in iron ore consumption, and the daily hot metal output in March was 244.2 kt, a y-o-y increase of 5.7% [3][22][87]. - Supply has increased month-on-month, and demand is expected to decline. Iron ore will shift from a tight - balance to a loose situation. As of May 2, the cumulative y-o-y decline in global iron ore shipments was 725 kt, an increase of 836 kt from the low point in February. Currently, hot metal production is still rising but has reached a historical high, with limited growth space. If hot metal production peaks and declines later while iron ore supply continues to increase, the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser [4][45][87]. - The US has imposed global tariffs, increasing global economic uncertainty. China's manufacturing PMI in April dropped from 50.5 in March to 49, breaking below the boom - bust line and hitting the largest decline since December 2023. The global manufacturing industry is also under pressure, with the JPMorgan Global PMI falling to 49.8%, entering the contraction range for the first time this year [4][75][88]. - There are frequent discussions about reducing crude steel production, further exacerbating the iron ore supply - demand situation. Relevant departments have stated that they will continue to implement crude steel production control and promote the reduction and restructuring of the steel industry, increasing market attention to industrial policies [8][78][88]. - The iron ore production capacity has entered an expansion cycle, and the price center is expected to decline. With the release of new global production capacity, the iron ore supply - demand pattern has become looser since last year, and domestic port iron ore inventories have remained at a relatively high level. If the annual average price is estimated to be between $90 - 95, high - cost non - mainstream mines will reduce shipments to China, which may further intensify the supply - demand situation and cause the price to fall below the predicted range. Considering future demand decline and industrial policy implementation, as well as the premium and discount of Dalian iron ore futures, the operating range of the iron ore 09 contract is reasonably estimated to be between $80 - 95 per ton [2][8][89]. Summaries by Directory Global Steel Industry Supply - Demand Analysis Overseas demand is strong, and China's exports are at a high level - In Jan - Mar 2025, overseas crude steel production totaled 20,928 kt, a y-o-y decrease of 1.5%, but the year - on - year growth in March turned positive; overseas crude steel consumption totaled 23,879 kt, a y-o-y increase of 0.60%, with March consumption hitting a record monthly high; China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 2,951 kt, a significant y-o-y increase of 18.2%; overseas total iron production totaled 13,006 kt, a y-o-y decrease of 1.2%, equivalent to a decrease of 253 kt in iron ore consumption, with overseas total iron production growing by 1.5% in March, the highest growth rate since March last year [3][16][86]. Domestic demand is still resilient, and iron ore consumption has increased year - on - year - In Jan - Mar 2025, domestic crude steel production totaled 26,300 kt, flat y-o-y, with the daily output growth rates in the past three months being - 8.1%, + 1.7%, and + 7.1% respectively, and March production showing a significant y-o-y increase; domestic crude steel consumption totaled 22,403 kt, with the daily consumption growth rates in the past three months being - 15.40%, + 11.0%, and + 8.40% respectively, indicating continuous consumption recovery; domestic pig iron production totaled 21,712 kt, a y-o-y increase of 1.6%, equivalent to an increase of 541 kt in iron ore consumption, and the daily hot metal output in March was 244.2 kt, a y-o-y increase of 5.7%, with the growth rate of iron ore consumption turning positive in March [22][23][87]. The impact of hurricanes and price drops has led to a significant year - on - year decline in imports - In Jan - Mar 2025, China imported 285 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 24.79 million tons compared to the same period last year, a cumulative y-o-y decrease of 8.0%. Affected by hurricanes, imports from Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and India showed different trends, with overall imports in March showing a significant year - on - year decline, and the supply side contracting under the influence of hurricanes and price drops [29][30][39]. Supply is increasing month - on - month, and demand is expected to decline. Iron ore will shift from a tight - balance to a loose situation Shipments are continuously recovering, with a more obvious recovery in Brazil - As of May 2, the cumulative y-o-y decline in global iron ore shipments was 725 kt, an increase of 836 kt from the low point in February. Among them, shipments from Australia decreased by 434 kt year - on - year, an increase of 504 kt from the low point; shipments from Brazil increased by 367 kt year - on - year, an increase of 609 kt from the low point; non - mainstream shipments decreased by 658 kt year - on - year, showing a downward trend. As of May 2, the cumulative y-o-y decline in iron ore shipments from the four major mines was 118 kt, and attention should be paid to the replenishment of the four major mines in the future [46][47][48]. Shipments are continuously recovering, and future arrivals will remain at a high level - As of May 4, the cumulative y-o-y decline in arrivals at 45 ports was 2,223 kt. Based on current shipment data, iron ore arrivals will remain at a high level in the future [49][50][57]. Domestic iron ore demand is approaching its peak, and the supply - demand situation will become looser - Domestic demand has been performing well this year, and exports have also shown strong growth. The sum of domestic demand and exports has shown an obvious recovery trend, but the growth rate has slowed down. The current hot metal production is still rising but has reached a historical high, with limited growth space. If the hot metal production peaks and declines later while iron ore supply continues to increase, the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser [58][59][87]. Iron ore supply - demand will turn into a surplus, and uncertainties have increased significantly Domestic demand is stable, and iron ore supply - demand will turn into a surplus - Assuming a 0.1% y-o-y increase in domestic steel consumption and considering the impact of new production capacity on iron ore supply, the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser in the future, and port inventories will remain at a relatively high level [65][66][70]. The US has imposed global tariffs, increasing global economic uncertainty - Since the Trump administration restarted the trade war against China in 2025, the US has imposed multiple rounds of tariff increases on Chinese goods, which has had a significant impact on the global economy. China's manufacturing PMI in April dropped significantly, and the global manufacturing industry is also under pressure. The US itself is also facing negative impacts, such as inventory shortages in retailers and a decline in freight volume in the logistics industry [74][75][88]. There are frequent discussions about reducing crude steel production, further exacerbating the iron ore supply - demand situation - Relevant departments have stated that they will implement policies to resolve structural contradictions in key industries, including continuous crude steel production control, which has increased market attention to industrial policies. If the policy is implemented, domestic iron ore demand will decline, although overseas iron ore demand may increase to some extent, but overall, it will have a negative impact on iron ore premium capabilities [78][79][88]. The iron ore production capacity has entered an expansion cycle, and the price center is expected to decline - With the release of new global production capacity, the iron ore supply - demand pattern has become looser since last year, and domestic port iron ore inventories have remained at a relatively high level. If the annual average price is estimated to be between $90 - 95, high - cost non - mainstream mines will reduce shipments to China, which may cause the price to fall below the predicted range. Considering future demand decline and industrial policy implementation, as well as the premium and discount of Dalian iron ore futures, the operating range of the iron ore 09 contract is reasonably estimated to be between $80 - 95 per ton [8][81][89]. Conclusion - Overseas demand is strong, and China's exports are at a high level. Domestic demand is still resilient, and iron ore consumption has increased year - on - year. Supply is increasing month - on - month, and demand is expected to decline. Iron ore will shift from a tight - balance to a loose situation. The US has imposed global tariffs, increasing global economic uncertainty. There are frequent discussions about reducing crude steel production, further exacerbating the iron ore supply - demand situation. The iron ore production capacity has entered an expansion cycle, and the price center is expected to decline. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of short - selling iron ore at high prices during the production capacity expansion cycle [86][87][90]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market currently has strong real - world fundamentals and rising macro - optimistic expectations, which support the lower limit of finished products. However, the weak demand expectation and the tendency of new orders to decline limit the upward space of the futures market. Without unexpected positive news, the futures market may fluctuate in the near term [3]. - The iron ore market is trading on the expectation of future demand rather than the current situation of strong supply and demand. There is an expectation of a significant decline in demand in mid - to late May, and the weakening of exports may intensify industrial chain contradictions [17]. - The coal - coke market is in a short - term situation of strong supply and demand. In the long - term, due to coal supply guarantee and crude steel reduction expectations, coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is relatively large [34]. - The ferroalloy market still has a high - inventory pattern. Although the pressure of high supply of silicon manganese has been alleviated, supply still exceeds demand compared with weak downstream demand. The production of silicon iron has increased slightly this week, and the large increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the rise of the futures price [54]. - The soda ash market is expected to have more maintenance in May, increasing supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and although the current inventory accumulation is less than expected, the supply disturbances may increase market fluctuations [70]. - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure. The futures price may continue to decline to force new cold repairs. The key variables are the delay of ignition and new cold repairs, as well as the improvement of demand [96]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3126, 3048, and 3098 respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3239, 3200, and 3217 respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar in different regions such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou were between 3180 - 3344 yuan/ton on May 7, 2025 [9]. Market Analysis - From a macro - industrial perspective, Sino - US trade negotiations seem to have new progress, and the macro - optimistic expectation has risen. The real - world fundamentals are strong, but the future demand expectation is weak, and the market may face pressure from weakening demand and falling raw material costs [3]. Iron Ore Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 681, 768, and 708 respectively. The prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao, such as PB powder, were also provided [18]. Market Analysis - The current supply and demand of iron ore are both strong, but the market is trading on future expectations. There is an expectation of a significant decline in demand in mid - to late May, and the negative feedback pressure on steel mills to reduce production is increasing [17]. Coal - Coke Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs and basis in different regions and contracts were provided, as well as the coking profit on the futures market [35]. Market Analysis - In the short - term, the supply and demand of coal - coke are both strong. In the long - term, coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is relatively large [34]. Ferroalloy Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the silicon iron and silicon manganese basis, futures spreads, and spot prices in different regions were provided, as well as the prices of related raw materials and the number of warehouse receipts [55][56]. Market Analysis - The ferroalloy market still has a high - inventory pattern. The supply of silicon manganese still exceeds demand, and the increase in silicon iron production and warehouse receipts suppresses the futures price [54]. Soda Ash Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the soda ash futures prices, spreads, and spot prices in different regions were provided [71][72]. Market Analysis - In May, there are expected to be more maintenance activities, increasing supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and although the current inventory accumulation is less than expected, the supply disturbances may increase market fluctuations [70]. Glass Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the glass futures prices, spreads, and basis in different regions were provided, as well as the daily sales data in different regions [98][99]. Market Analysis - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure. The futures price may continue to decline to force new cold repairs. The key variables are the delay of ignition and new cold repairs, as well as the improvement of demand [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures opened high and closed low on the first trading day after the holiday, with the rebar 2510 contract closing at 3077 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 92,500 lots. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume fell. Given the challenges in steel exports and the transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May, the market supply - demand may face weakening pressure. It is expected that the rebar futures will continue to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend, closing at 704.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. With a decrease in Australian shipments due to berth maintenance and an increase in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory, the iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 911.5 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 2.04% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 25,843 lots. The coking coal market is weak. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. It is expected that the coking coal futures will trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Coke: The coke futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 1502 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 2.34% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 4,825 lots. Spot prices fell. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5560 yuan/ton, down 2.76% from the previous day, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed to improve the situation [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5398 yuan/ton, down 3.05% from the previous day. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: Rebar futures opened high and closed low, with a decline in spot prices and trading volume. The decline in the April PMI index and the challenges in steel exports led to cautious market expectations. The transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May may bring weakening pressure on supply - demand. The rebar futures are expected to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend. There were changes in supply, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory. The iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures declined, with a weak spot market. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. The coking coal futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures declined, with a decline in spot prices. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, hitting a new low since the second half of 2017. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar being - 32.0, down 6.0, and the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil being 43.0, down 10.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also changed. For example, the basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 133.0, up 9.0, and the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 100.4, up 0.1 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various varieties showed different trends. For example, the Shanghai rebar price was 3210.0, down 10.0, and the PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 759.0, up 1.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of various varieties changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was 120.6, down 2.7, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 119.0, up 11.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][11][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the historical basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads between different varieties, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of rebar to coke [40][41][42]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the historical profits of rebar futures, long - process production, and short - process production from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][48][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [51]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry awards [51]. - **Liu Xi**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - cash trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [52].