Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The theme of the chemical sector recently is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years, with the capacity of such plants for pure benzene and styrene accounting for 18% and 8% respectively, and subsequent progress should be monitored [3] - BZ futures still maintain a certain premium, there is still pressure on pure benzene port inventory during the same period. The short - term demand of BZ downstream is okay, but the high - start CPL and styrene start to decline. In terms of supply, the pressure of South Korea's exports to China remains, and domestic production start is still high, with the pure benzene processing fee continuing to consolidate weakly [3] - For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly. Although domestic EB start has declined slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, EPS start has rebounded, but the inventory pressure of the three major hard rubbers persists, which may drag down subsequent start [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis and main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts; EB's main contract trend & basis, main contract basis, and spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts [8][11][14] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures involve naphtha processing fee, difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, non - integrated production profit of styrene, differences between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB South Korea, FOB US Gulf and CFR China, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, and import profits of pure benzene and styrene [19][21][31] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show pure benzene's East China port inventory and operating rate; styrene's East China port inventory, operating rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [38][40][43] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures cover EPS operating rate and production profit, PS operating rate and production profit, ABS operating rate and production profit [51][55][56] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures include operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 conventional spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [59][71][82] Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene, and short - hedge styrene on rallies [4] - Basis and Inter - Period: Do reverse spreads on the near - term BZ paper cargo against the distant BZ2603 futures on rallies; do reverse spreads on the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period [4] - Cross - Variety: Shrink the EB - BZ spread on rallies [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View - The price of EG rebounded due to macro - sentiment boost. The closing price of the EG main contract was 4410 yuan/ton (+34 yuan/ton, +0.78% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4467 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton, +0.86% compared to the previous trading day). The news of the upcoming stable - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals boosted the market, but the proportion of EG's backward production capacity over 20 years old is only 6.6%, and most are in a shutdown or low - load operation state, so the increase is relatively limited [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 53 US dollars/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and that of coal - based syngas - to - EG was 47 yuan/ton (- 13 yuan/ton compared to the previous period) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 53.3 tons (- 2.0 tons compared to the previous period); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.4 tons (+1.3 tons compared to the previous period). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 5.2 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 15.7 tons, and the visible inventory is expected to moderately increase early next week [2]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, on the supply side, the domestic syngas - to - ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level, and there are more unplanned load reductions in non - coal sectors, with limited room for further improvement. Overseas supply recovery is not as expected. On the demand side, the terminal inventory is high in the off - season, and the stocking willingness is low, with a weak demand expectation. The actual decline space may be limited. The supply - demand structure in July is still benign, but the arrival pressure of foreign ships will moderately increase in late July [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4410 yuan/ton (+34 yuan/ton, +0.78% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4467 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton, +0.86% compared to the previous trading day). The East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (+3 yuan/ton compared to the previous period) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 53 US dollars/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and that of coal - based syngas - to - EG was 47 yuan/ton (- 13 yuan/ton compared to the previous period) [1]. International Spread - The international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) is presented in the report, but no specific data is given [19]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The report mentions downstream indicators such as filament sales, staple fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, and polyester bottle chip load, but no specific data is provided [20][22][24]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 53.3 tons (- 2.0 tons compared to the previous period); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.4 tons (+1.3 tons compared to the previous period). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 5.2 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 15.7 tons, and the visible inventory is expected to moderately increase early next week [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different commodities and financial products affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][3] Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia tightens price limits, but impact on supply is uncertain. In July, trade - war risks are greater than geopolitical benefits, and oil prices may turn to a volatile and pressured trend [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - low sulfur spread continues to decline. The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia boosts FU, while LU follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than SC since mid - July [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas markets are weak, but domestic PDH demand is strong. With weak supply and demand, domestic gas may stabilize, and the market is expected to be in low - level oscillation [23] - **Urea**: Affected by policy news, the market is bullish. Production enterprises are de - stocking, and supply is sufficient. With expected growth in industrial demand and export progress, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24] - **Methanol**: Boosted by policy, it is bullish at night. Import arrivals increase, and ports are rapidly stocking. Some enterprises may postpone maintenance, and attention should be paid to macro - level impacts [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the upward drive for gold is limited. With high uncertainty before the US tariff policy deadline and a weakening dollar outlook, precious metals are in wide - range oscillation, and the gold - silver ratio has room to decline [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices continued to rise. Social inventories decreased rapidly over the weekend. Resistance at the upper integer level is strong, and the 2508 option portfolio should be held until expiration this week [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed non - ferrous metals in a strong and oscillating trend. Aluminum ingot inventories increased, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with resistance around 21,000 yuan [4] - **Alumina**: Overnight, it remained strong. With low warehouse receipts and high industry operating rates, after a sharp increase driven by policy expectations, there is a risk of correction [5] - **Zinc**: Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, zinc prices broke through the bottom consolidation. However, with increasing supply pressure, attention should be paid to downstream acceptance and the entry of hedging positions [7] - **Lead**: Primary lead smelters are reducing production, and the cost support is strong. In the context of weak supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly. With weakening upstream price support and high overall inventory, it is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices oscillated at a high level. With a decrease in imports from Congo and an increase from Myanmar, it is recommended to hold or increase short positions in far - month contracts [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillated and rose. With increasing total inventory and a rebound in Australian ore prices, the upward space is limited, and short - sellers should manage their positions [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by an accident in the organic silicon supply, prices rose significantly. With increasing demand and limited supply, it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price strengthened. With cost transfer and limited terminal demand acceptance, short - term observation is recommended [13] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - trading steel prices oscillated narrowly. Rebar demand declined, and hot - rolled coil demand was resilient. With low inventory and positive market sentiment, the market is expected to remain strong [14] - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures price oscillated. With increasing global shipments and high iron - making production, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices continued to rise. With sufficient carbon supply and high iron - making production, they are expected to follow steel prices and remain strong in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon prices adjusted slightly after a high opening. With decreasing inventory and increasing demand expectations, it follows rebar prices. Ferrosilicon prices opened high, with overall good demand and a slight increase in supply, also following rebar prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Pure Benzene**: Night - trading prices oscillated. With a slight increase in domestic production and a decrease in port inventory, it is recommended to operate in monthly spreads, with a positive spread strategy in the short - to - medium term and a negative spread in the fourth quarter [26] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - news, the trading sentiment improved. With expected increases in both supply and demand and continued inventory accumulation, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Driven by the macro - environment, the market sentiment improved slightly, but the fundamentals are weak. In the consumption off - season, downstream procurement is cautious, and there is pressure to destock [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by the policy of eliminating backward production capacity, PVC showed a strong trend. Caustic soda was also strong under macro - influence. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity - elimination policies [28] - **PX & PTA**: Night - trading prices oscillated. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and demand dragged down PX. The processing margin of PTA has room for repair [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: With limited policy impact and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the short term, paying attention to the previous high - point pressure [30] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: They followed PTA and closed with a doji. Short - fiber is expected to be long - positioned in the medium term, while bottle - grade chip has limited profit - repair drivers due to over - capacity [31] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybean优良率decreased slightly, and with uncertainties in trade and weather, soybean meal is expected to oscillate before the situation becomes clear [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Affected by weather, policy, and supply - demand factors, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended, with short - term attention to weather and policy guidance [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: With potential changes in import trade and seasonal demand, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - **Corn**: US corn auction results were poor, and Dalian corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom [39] - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Hogs**: Affected by policies, the futures price rose significantly. However, with sufficient future supply, industrial players can participate in short - hedging at high prices [40] - **Eggs**: Small - egg prices decreased, while large - egg prices increased. The spot price is in a seasonal rebound, and the futures market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [41] - **Others** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Chinese cotton prices corrected. With tight supply and potential short - squeeze, it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated, and domestic sugar sales are fast with low inventory. Considering weather and production uncertainties, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43] - **Apples**: Futures prices oscillated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and attention should be paid to price changes and new - season yield estimates [44] - **Wood**: Futures prices rebounded. With low - level spot prices, low port arrivals, and inventory, but weak domestic demand, it is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: Prices continued to rise. With high port inventory and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [46] Financial Products Summaries Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and continued to rise. The futures index contracts all closed up, with IC leading the gain. The market risk preference is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term, and technology - growth stocks are recommended for additional allocation [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed with oscillation. The central bank's policy may inject implicit liquidity, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Propylene futures, as the first monomer variety listed in the domestic energy - chemical industry chain, play an important role in hedging in the energy - chemical industry chain. Analyzing the delivery characteristics of East China, North China, and South China is crucial for establishing the pricing center of propylene [1][6]. - In terms of supply, from 2019 - 2024, domestic new propylene production capacity increased by 3043 million tons, with a total capacity growth of 75% and an average annual compound growth rate of 12%. As of 2024, the total domestic propylene production capacity reached 69.73 million tons, and the annual output reached 53.4 million tons. From 2025 - 2027, propylene production capacity will still be in a period of rapid release, mainly from PDH and cracking - made propylene [20]. - Regarding demand, the downstream derivatives of propylene have entered an over - capacity phase in the past three years, leading to losses in the downstream derivatives of propylene [32]. - Strategies recommended on the first listing day of propylene futures include: (1) Buying propylene 02 and shorting PP01; (2) Conducting a 1 - 2 short - spread on propylene; (3) Buying propylene 02 and shorting plastic 09 [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Contract Interpretation - **Trading Contract Interpretation**: On July 22, propylene futures and option contracts will be listed on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. The trading unit of propylene futures is 20 tons per lot, and the contract has a flexible delivery matching system, including futures - to - spot, warehouse standard warrant delivery, and factory warehouse standard warrant delivery. It also has a position - limit system [7][8][9]. - **Delivery Product Premium and Discount Analysis**: The benchmark delivery product of propylene futures is Type I propylene that meets relevant national standards, with a water content ≤ 20mg/kg. Alternative delivery products with a water content of 20mg/kg < water content ≤ 50mg/kg are subject to a discount of 50 yuan/ton. Most propylene from different production processes meets the water - content requirements of the benchmark delivery product, while FCC propylene generally meets the requirements of alternative delivery products [9][13]. - **Regional Premium and Discount Analysis**: Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Shandong have a premium and discount of 0 yuan/ton; Fujian and Guangdong have a discount of 100 yuan/ton; Tianjin has a discount of 120 yuan/ton; Hebei has a discount of 160 yuan/ton; and Liaoning has a discount of 300 yuan/ton. Short - distance transportation within the region is common, and cross - regional transportation has high costs, which will bring additional selling pressure during the cancellation month [2][14][15]. - **Delivery Warehouse Analysis**: A total of 15 delivery warehouses are announced, including 2 delivery warehouses and 13 delivery factory warehouses. The storage fees for delivery warehouses and delivery factory warehouses are 5 yuan/ton/day and 4 yuan/ton/day respectively [16]. 3.2 Propylene Fundamental Analysis - **Propylene Supply**: From 2019 - 2024, domestic new propylene production capacity increased significantly, but the effective operating rate has been declining year by year. From 2025 - 2027, production capacity will continue to be released, and propylene pricing follows a cost - based logic [20][24]. - **Propylene Demand**: Downstream derivatives of propylene are in an over - capacity situation, leading to losses. In terms of downstream pricing influence, polypropylene powder has the largest proportion in the circulation and external procurement demand, and the marginal changes in propylene demand can be tracked by focusing on the price influence of polypropylene powder on propylene and the regional external procurement demand of propylene oxide and acrylic acid [32][35]. - **Propylene Balance Sheet**: The national balance sheet explores the structural contradictions of propylene, but it is difficult to observe structural contradictions on a monthly basis. The balance sheet of Shandong, the mainstream trading area, has a direct guiding significance for the market, and it can be used to characterize the relaxation or tightening of the dynamic supply and demand in Shandong [36][38]. 3.3 Propylene Strategy on the First Listing Day - **Propylene Logic Chain**: There are four types of propylene logics, including the monomer strength - weakness logic, the PO/SM logic of propylene oxide, the profit logic of acrylonitrile for ABS, and the marginal pricing effect of acrylonitrile and butanol - octanol on methanol [43]. - **Arbitrage Strategies** - **Industrial Chain Profit Fluctuation**: The loss - tolerance of the polypropylene powder industry has decreased, and the adjustment flexibility of downstream loads has increased. The recommended strategy is to buy 02 propylene and short 01PP, and if the opening price reaches the expected level, consider buying 01PP and shorting 01 propylene [47][48]. - **Spread + Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage - PX Variant**: The spread of propylene mainly reflects the delivery friction cost and holding cost. It is recommended to conduct a short - spread on propylene 1 - 2 when the spread is high [49][51]. - **Extension of Monomer Olefin Hedging**: After the listing of propylene, it can provide more arbitrage options. It is recommended to expand the spread between PP and plastic, and buy propylene 02 and short plastic 09 [52][53]. - **Intuitive Expression of Aromatic - Olefin Logic**: With the listing of propylene, the strategy expression of aromatic - olefin can more intuitively reflect the strength and weakness between aromatics and olefins [54].

目前，亚洲地区正值检修季，西北两套装置分别停车35天和10-15天，万华福建装置也处于检修状态， 多重因素叠加导致全球TDI供应紧张局势急剧恶化。市场反应极为迅速，万华化学（600309）分销价上 调1000元/吨后暂停接单；上海科思创封盘停报。虽然当前是传统淡季，但临近9月旺季的备货需求放大 了供应中断的影响。 据悉，在国内TDI生产企业中，万华化学目前是全球最大的MDI和TDI供应商，截至2024年末，该公司 拥有TDI产能111万吨/年，福建第二套33万吨/年TDI项目投产后，万华化学TDI总产能将达到144万吨/ 年，并规划2026年再扩建36万吨。此外，沧州大化（600230）拥有TDI产能约16万吨/年；华鲁恒升 （600426）也规划了TDI相关产能，华鲁恒升(荆州)有限公司规划有"30万吨/年TDI项目、废盐综合利用 32万吨/年离子膜烧碱项目"，目前该项目已取得建设用地规划许可证。 7月21日，国内TDI市场继续高位推涨，据百川盈孚消息，截至21日午间，国内TDI市场均价1.59万元/ 吨，较上一个工作日上涨1012元/吨，涨幅6.79%。截至目前，国内TDI价格已经连续5个工作日上涨， 年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market has limited supply - demand contradictions, with high - profit incentives for high production. There is a good price upward expectation in the peak season. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait and see. The PVC market has a weak supply - demand situation, with inventory accumulation pressure. It is advisable to wait and see due to policy and information fluctuations [23]. - **Urea**: The core driver of the urea futures market is the change in demand, especially the weakening of agricultural demand. The supply - side surplus pressure and high inventory also affect the market. The new round of Indian tender provides short - term benefits, but the suspension of small - particle bulk exports suppresses market sentiment [27]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: In July, the PX supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to operate PX09 in the 6600 - 6900 range. The PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to operate TA in the 4600 - 4800 range. The short - term supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to improve, and it is recommended to sell put options EG2509 - P - 4300 at low prices. The short - fiber market has a weak supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to operate PFO9 in the 6300 - 6500 range. The bottle - chip supply - demand has an improvement expectation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee in the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [30]. - **Methanol**: Inland methanol prices fluctuate slightly. The port basis strengthens, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation from July to August, with weak prices [34]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The pure benzene supply - demand is generally good, but the rebound space is limited. The styrene supply - demand is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to operate EB09 in the 7100 - 7500 range [37]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply and demand of PP and PE contract synchronously, with inventory accumulation and weak demand. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities for PP and buy PE within a range [41]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices are in a stalemate between bulls and bears. Diesel shortages support prices, but factors such as sanctions, tariffs, and supply increases limit the upward space. The support ranges for WTI, Brent, and SC are [65, 66], [67, 68], and [504, 514] respectively [44]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: For PVC, the prices of various futures contracts and spot markets have small fluctuations. For caustic soda, the prices of some products are stable, and the export price and profit of some products have changed [19][20]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate has increased, while the PVC total operating rate has decreased slightly. The profits of different production methods of PVC have changed [21]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed, and the PVC pre - sales volume has increased slightly [22][23]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC has changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [23]. Urea - **Prices**: The prices of urea futures contracts, spot markets, and related products have changed, and the basis and spread have also changed [27]. - **Supply**: The daily and weekly production of urea has changed slightly, and the number of maintenance losses has increased [27]. - **Demand**: The agricultural demand for urea is weak, and the industrial demand is restricted by high temperatures [27]. - **Inventory**: The factory and port inventories of urea have changed, with the factory inventory decreasing and the port inventory increasing [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: The prices of various products in the polyester industry chain, including crude oil, PX, PTA, and polyester products, have changed, and the spreads and processing fees have also changed [30]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products have changed [30]. - **Demand**: The demand for polyester products is weak, and the downstream industries' operating rates have changed [30]. Methanol - **Prices**: The prices of methanol futures contracts and spot markets have changed, and the basis and spread have also changed [34]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise, port, and social inventories of methanol have changed [34]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream enterprises of methanol have changed [34]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products have changed, and the spreads and import profits have also changed [37]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have changed [37]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries have changed [37]. Polyolefins - **Prices**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts and spot markets have changed, and the basis and spread have also changed [41]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP have changed [41]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP production and downstream industries have changed [41]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: The prices of crude oil futures contracts and refined oil products have changed, and the spreads and crack spreads have also changed [44]. - **Market Factors**: Diesel shortages support oil prices, but sanctions, tariffs, and supply increases affect the market [44].

| G | M | E | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 新 | 单 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 强现实与弱预期继续博弈，油价反弹偏空。从供需基本面看，当前呈现旺 | | 原油 | 反弹偏空 | 季强现实，全球原油库存处于低位，但随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，油价供给 | | | | 过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注供给端 OPEC 实际增产 | | | | 量与美国产量。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【510-530】 | | | | 成本端企稳，下游开工率提高，短线偏震荡，前期空单可止盈。成本端油 | | LPG | | 价企稳，美国丙烷处于消费淡季，供给相对充足；下游燃烧需求处于淡季， | | | 空单止盈 | 化工需求回升，PDH 开工率上升；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅 | | | | 下降，港口库存累库。策略：短线震荡，空单可止盈。PG【4050-4150】 | | | | 市场情绪好转，基本面暂无新利空出现，盘面在 7200 附近呈现一定支撑 | | | | 力度。供需偏弱，社会库存连续 3 周累库，月差、基差边际走弱。进口贸 | | L | 空头盘整 | 易商接盘态 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of crude oil, PVC,沪铜, urea, asphalt, PP, plastic,豆油,豆粕,焦煤,螺纹钢, and热卷 are expected to show different trends. Crude oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the near term; PVC is expected to be in a low - level oscillation;沪铜 is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term; urea is expected to be in a short - term oscillation; asphalt is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices; PP and plastic are expected to be in low - level oscillations;豆油's basis is expected to be in a weak oscillation;豆粕 is expected to be strong in the short term;焦煤 is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term;螺纹钢 is expected to continue the oscillation and stabilization trend;热卷 is expected to run in an interval oscillation [3][6][11][14][15][17][18][20][22][23][25][27] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and concerns about supply disruptions have eased. However, the subsequent development of the situation needs attention [3] - Entering the seasonal travel peak, US crude oil inventories are at a low level, but overall oil product inventories have increased. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding expectations [3] - Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia, exceeding expectations. OPEC + is discussing suspending further production increases from October [3] - OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years, and the market has reflected the accelerated production increase of OPEC +. The IEA has raised the global crude oil surplus in 2025 [3] - Concerns about trade negotiations and sanctions policies need attention, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile [3][5] PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide has increased in some areas, and the PVC operating rate has increased, but downstream operating rates are low, and procurement is cautious [6] - India has postponed the BIS policy, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventories continue to increase, and the real estate market is still in adjustment [6] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [6] 沪铜 - The Fed's possible interest rate cut has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous market. Copper smelting processing fees have stopped falling and stabilized, and copper supply expectations have improved [11] - Electrolytic copper consumption has increased, but downstream procurement sentiment is weak. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased, and the spot premium has strengthened [11] - The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Fed's interest - rate decision [11] Carbonate Lithium - The price has risen due to market sentiment, but the actual impact on the fundamentals is small. Supply has increased, and inventories have continued to accumulate [12] - The price of spodumene has increased, providing cost support. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the new energy vehicle market has shown an upward trend [12][13] - The futures price is far higher than the spot price, and the market is dominated by sentiment. After the sentiment stabilizes, a correction is expected [13] Urea - The upstream has lowered prices to attract orders, and the downstream has replenished inventory at low prices, with good market transactions. This week's production has decreased, and next week's production is expected to increase [14] - Northern agricultural demand is coming to an end, and compound fertilizer factories' demand has increased slightly. Inventories have continued to decrease, but the rate has slowed down [14] - The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to news disturbances [14] Asphalt - The operating rate has increased but is still at a low level. July's production is expected to increase. Downstream operating rates have fluctuated, and shipments have decreased [15] - Inventories have increased slightly, and terminal project funds are restricted. Geopolitical risks have cooled down, and crude oil prices have risen [15][16] - It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [16] PP - The downstream operating rate has decreased, and US tariffs and import restrictions have affected the industry. Some overhaul devices have restarted, and the enterprise operating rate has increased [17] - Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand recovery is slow [17] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the development of the global trade war [17] Plastic - The operating rate has remained stable, and the downstream operating rate has increased slightly. US tariffs and import restrictions have an impact, but the cancellation of US ethane restrictions is beneficial [18] - New production capacity has been put into operation, and some overhaul devices have restarted. The off - season demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high [18][19] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the development of the global trade war [19] 豆油 - The price has risen, and if it breaks through the key resistance level, there may be room for further increase. The domestic oil mill operating rate and crushing volume are high, and the US soybean production outlook is optimistic [20] - International oil prices have risen, which may boost the demand for vegetable oils. Indonesia's potential increase in biodiesel blending may push up the price of palm oil and indirectly affect 豆油 [20] - The basis is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy and weather changes [20] 豆粕 - The price has risen strongly, breaking through the 3000 mark. The US soybean crop conditions have improved, and domestic inventories are high, but there is a large gap in fourth - quarter import orders [21][22] - Consumption demand has increased, but the adjustment of the aquaculture industry and high - temperature weather may reduce demand [22] - The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the fourth - quarter soybean procurement progress and the adjustment of the aquaculture industry [22] 焦煤 - The price has risen. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has resumed, and production at mines and coal - washing plants has increased. Mine inventories have decreased, and downstream inventories have increased [23] - The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a second - round increase. Downstream demand is strong, and steel mill profits have increased [23] - The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of Mongolian coal customs clearance and Indonesian export taxes [23] 螺纹钢 - The price has shown a "strong oscillation and then a decline" trend. Supply and demand have both weakened, with production and apparent demand decreasing. However, the profit per ton of steel is good, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be monitored [25] - Demand has continued to weaken seasonally, and engineering funds are at a low level. Inventories are at a low level, and the contradiction is not prominent. Policy expectations and raw material strength provide cost support [25] - The price is expected to continue the oscillation and stabilization trend, but attention should be paid to the possible correction of macro - optimistic expectations [25] 热卷 - The price has shown a "rising and then oscillating" trend. Production has increased marginally, but there may be a decline in the future. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, and export has improved marginally, but there are still risks [26][27] - Inventories have decreased slowly, and there is a risk of passive inventory accumulation in the off - season. The price is under pressure but also has strong support [27] - The price is expected to run in an interval oscillation, with an upper pressure of 3350 yuan/ton [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,372 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 4,433 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton or 1.09%. The spot basis in East China was 62 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. - Due to unexpected production cuts at Zhejiang Petrochemical, shutdowns in Saudi Arabia due to power issues, and the likely postponement of the restart of Satellite Petrochemical's 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant, the supply increase at home and abroad fell short of expectations, leading to a rebound in EG prices [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 54 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton month - on - month, and that of coal - based syngas EG was 41 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 553,000 tons, down 27,000 tons month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 494,000 tons, up 13,000 tons month - on - month. The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 96,000 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. This week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 45,000 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary ports are concentrated at 65,000 tons. Overall, the inventory has slightly increased [1]. - On the supply side, the peak maintenance period in China has passed, and domestic ethylene glycol production is on the rise. Overseas, the supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants gradually restart, but the actual supply recovery at home and abroad in July fell short of expectations. On the demand side, it is in the off - season, with high terminal inventory and low restocking willingness, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term supply - demand structure in July is still good, but the inventory accumulation pressure increases in late July [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the closing price of the main EG contract, the spot price in the East China market, and the spot basis in East China, along with their changes from the previous trading day [1]. - Figures related to the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and the spot basis in East China are provided [5][7] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profits of ethylene - based EG and coal - based syngas EG and their month - on - month changes are given [1]. - Figures about the gross profit of ethylene - based EG, coal - based syngas EG, naphtha - integrated EG, and methanol - based EG, as well as the total load and syngas - based load of ethylene glycol are presented [5][10][12] International Spread - The international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) is mentioned, and relevant figures are provided [5][21] Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Figures related to the production and sales of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips are presented [5][22][24] Inventory Data - Inventory data from CCF and Longzhong, including the inventory at the main ports in East China, actual arrivals, planned arrivals, and changes in inventory are provided [1]. - Figures about the inventory at ethylene glycol ports in East China, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo, Jiangyin + Changzhou, Shanghai + Changshu, the raw material inventory days of MEG in Chinese polyester factories, and the daily outbound volume at ethylene glycol ports in East China are presented [5][33][36]