Group 1: Strategy Research - Global asset performance shows significant divergence, with developed European equities rising while emerging Asian equities decline. COMEX silver saw a weekly increase of 9.4%, with an annual increase exceeding 120%. The Federal Reserve has brought forward its interest rate cut expectations for 2026 [3][4][5] Group 2: Food and Beverage Research - Wuliangye held its 29th conference, emphasizing a pragmatic attitude and commitment to reform. The company aims to anchor its market share goals for 2026, maintaining a balance between volume and price, and focusing on product and channel collaboration to solidify its industry-leading position [3][8][9] Group 3: Oil and Chemical Research - Since Q4 2025, crude oil prices have been on a downward trend, with Brent crude closing at $59.68 per barrel as of December 18, 2025, a decrease of 12.43% since early September. Upstream oil and gas extraction companies are expected to face profit pressure, while refining businesses may see improved profitability due to expanded price differentials [3][11][12][14] Group 4: Automotive Research - The draft "Automotive Industry Price Behavior Compliance Guidelines" is expected to advance the anti-involution process in the automotive sector. This guideline aims to regulate pricing behaviors of automotive manufacturers and dealers, potentially alleviating price wars and improving profit margins for dealers [3][15][16][17]

芳烃橡胶早报 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担 期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司授权，不得随意转 载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力 造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担 任何责任。 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/23 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油日 本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macroeconomic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. There is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, so stay cautious [6]. - The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the valuation repair of domestic assets still has room, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the central fluctuation range of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. It is expected that precious metals will continue to rise. Investors can wait and see for now and wait for opportunities to go long [10]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the prices may continue the weak and volatile pattern. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [11]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and the futures may face resistance near the previous high. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [13]. - Coke and coking coal futures may continue to rebound in the short term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [15]. - The overall surplus pressure of ferroalloys continues, but the downward space of costs is limited. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot losses expand [17]. - The trend of crude oil is uncertain. The price of Brent crude oil is near the $60 integer mark. Investors need to wait for the market to become clear and temporarily stay on the sidelines [20]. - The spot supply of fuel oil in Asia is suddenly tight, and the cost - end crude oil stabilizes. The fuel oil price has fallen to a new low this year and has a large rebound space. Investors can temporarily stay on the sidelines [23]. - The polyolefin market is still in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction of standard product supply may boost market sentiment to some extent. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate [30]. - Natural rubber is expected to show a volatile trend [33]. - The PVC market continues to have a supply - surplus situation, and investors should pay attention to changes in the supply side [34]. - The downward space of urea prices is limited [37]. - PX may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to participate at low levels and be vigilant about changes in crude oil and macro - policies [38]. - PTA may have an upward driving force in the short term. Investors can consider participating at low levels, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. - Ethylene glycol may maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. Investors can consider trading within the range and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40]. - Short - fiber may follow the raw material price to oscillate. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. - Bottle chips are expected to follow the cost side to oscillate. Investors should control risks [42]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the social inventory is gradually being depleted. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [46]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [48]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain an oscillating adjustment [51]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly within a range [53]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [54]. - Nickel is still in a surplus pattern, and investors should pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [56]. - For soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, the short - term downward space may be limited, and investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in call options [59]. - Palm oil investors should temporarily stay on the sidelines [61]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil investors should temporarily stay on the sidelines [64]. - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly [68]. - Sugar prices are expected to run weakly and oscillate [71]. - Apple prices are expected to run strongly [73]. - For live pigs, investors should continue to follow the marginal changes in consumption brought by subsequent cooling and consider waiting and seeing [76]. - For eggs, investors should consider temporarily staying on the sidelines [78]. - Corn and corn starch may follow the market trend. Investors should wait patiently for the further release of supply pressure [80]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, with a net investment of 357 billion yuan on the day. It is expected that there is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, so stay cautious [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the valuation repair of domestic assets has room, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that the central fluctuation range will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates, and the US consumer confidence index was lower than expected. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. It is expected that precious metals will continue to rise. Investors can wait and see for now and wait for opportunities to go long [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the market will enter the off - season. The production capacity is in surplus, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The prices may continue the weak and volatile pattern. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [11]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The national hot - metal daily output has been declining since October, the supply has increased, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may face resistance near the previous high. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - On the previous trading day, coke and coking coal futures oscillated. The production of domestic coking coal has decreased, and the demand from downstream coking enterprises has increased. The third - round price cut of coke spot procurement has started, and the demand from steel mills has weakened. The futures may continue to rebound in the short term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures closed up. The supply of manganese ore has decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The production of ferroalloys has continued to decline, and the demand is weak. The overall surplus pressure continues, but the downward space of costs is limited. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot losses expand [17]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after reaching a low. The US imposed sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers. The CFTC data showed that fund managers reduced their net short positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased. Barclays maintained its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in 2026. The trend of crude oil is uncertain, and investors need to wait for the market to become clear and temporarily stay on the sidelines [19][20]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fell sharply. The supply of marine fuel oil in Asia is suddenly tight, and the cost - end crude oil stabilizes. The fuel oil price has fallen to a new low this year and has a large rebound space. Investors can temporarily stay on the sidelines [22][23]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market fell. The production of polyolefins is expected to be stable with slight fluctuations. The supply pressure of standard products may be slightly relieved, but the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The market is still in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction of standard product supply may boost market sentiment to some extent. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [25][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The price has been rising slightly recently, supported by costs and demand. The follow - up needs to focus on changes in supply - side devices and the recovery of demand [29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures closed down. It is expected that the market will continue the long - short game, and the rubber price may show a volatile trend. The supply is affected by overseas conflicts, the demand from the tire industry is slow, and the inventory continues to accumulate [31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures closed down. The supply - surplus situation continues, but the downward space may be limited. The upward trend needs to wait for the improvement of the fundamentals. After the festival, focus on exports and supply reduction [34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures closed down. It is expected that the urea market will rise slightly this week. The daily production is expected to fluctuate slightly, the industrial demand is strong, and the agricultural demand is weak. The downward space of prices is limited [35]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread has been repaired to a moderately high level, and there may be pressure above. The short - term profit has improved, the start - up rate is stable, and the cost - end crude oil has a short - term rebound drive. The supply - demand pattern has improved month - on - month. In the short term, PX may fluctuate strongly. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to participate at low levels and be vigilant about changes in crude oil and macro - policies [38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply of PTA has decreased, and the demand from the polyester industry is stable, but the terminal loom load has declined. The processing fee has rebounded slightly, and the inventory is still at a low level. In the short term, PTA may have an upward driving force. Investors can consider participating at low levels, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures closed down. The new investment and restart of ethylene glycol devices have increased, the supply pressure still exists, the port inventory continues to accumulate, and the pre - arrival at the port has increased. In the short term, it may maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. Investors can consider trading within the range and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply of short - fiber has declined but remains at a relatively high level, the demand support has weakened, but the cost drive has increased, and the inventory is at a low level. In the short term, it may follow the raw material price to oscillate. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The processing fee has been adjusted to around 500 yuan/ton. The load of bottle - chip factories has decreased, the export growth rate has increased, and the supply - demand structure has improved slightly month - on - month. It is expected to follow the cost side to oscillate. Investors should control risks [42]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply is still at a high level, and the consumption in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually being depleted. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The US employment data and inflation data have affected market expectations. The fundamentals are in a tight balance, the supply shortage risk remains, and the demand has short - term pressure. The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [44][45]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The alumina market is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is stable. The demand is average, and the inventory has changed. The aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [47]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The zinc concentrate processing fee is under pressure, the refined zinc production has decreased, the downstream demand has declined, and the LME zinc inventory has increased. The zinc price is expected to maintain an oscillating adjustment [49][50]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures rose. Some primary lead enterprises are under maintenance, and some secondary lead enterprises have resumed production. The consumption has entered the off - season, and the inventory has decreased. The lead price is expected to oscillate weakly within a range [52]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, the production in Wa State is progressing slowly, and the import from Indonesia may be affected. The demand shows certain resilience. The refined tin inventory has decreased. The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. Indonesia plans to reduce the nickel - ore quota in 2026 and may tax associated resources. The nickel - ore price is stable, but the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. Nickel is still in a surplus pattern, and investors should pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [55][56]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures closed down. Brazilian soybean planting is nearly completed, and the US soybean price has declined. The domestic soybean arrival volume is at a high level, the oil - mill crushing is in a loss, and the inventory pressure is still large. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. For soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, the short - term downward space may be limited, and investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in call options [57][59]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil has fallen for two consecutive weeks. The inventory in Indonesia has decreased, and the export in Malaysia has increased. The domestic palm - oil inventory is at a medium - low level in the past seven years. Investors should temporarily stay on the sidelines [60][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures have fallen for six consecutive days. The domestic import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has changed, and the inventory has decreased. Investors should temporarily stay on the sidelines [62][64]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated strongly, and overseas cotton futures rebounded slightly. The 2026 Xinjiang cotton industry policy will reduce the sown area by more than 10%. The global and US cotton inventories have increased. The domestic cotton harvest is nearly completed, and the demand is average. The cotton price is expected to run strongly [65][67]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fell, and overseas raw - sugar futures rose. The domestic sugar import in November decreased year - on - year, and the Brazilian sugar export decreased slightly. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly. The domestic new - sugar supply pressure is increasing, and the import volume in December is expected to be high. The sugar price is expected to run weakly and oscillate [69][71]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated and rose. The inventory in the main producing areas has decreased, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. The apple price is expected to run strongly [72][73]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs has fallen. The northern market may turn strong, and the southern market's decline expectation may converge. The supply and demand situation and inventory have changed. Investors should continue to follow the marginal changes in consumption brought by subsequent cooling and consider waiting and seeing [74][76]. Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas has remained flat. The egg - chicken inventory is at a high level, and the consumption may weaken after the winter solstice. The supply improvement is offset by weak demand. Investors should consider temporarily staying on the sidelines [77][78]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures closed down. The northern - port corn inventory is accumulating, the import may increase in the future, the new - season corn in the main producing areas is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the cost may be revised down. The demand for corn is growing slightly, and the corn - starch demand has recovered slightly, but the inventory is at a high level. They may follow the market trend. Investors should wait patiently for the further release of supply pressure [79][80].

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/22 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担 期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司授权，不得随意转 载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力 造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担 任何责任。 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油日 本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The propylene 03 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton in the short term. The recent weakening of the futures market, while the spot market remains stable, is mainly due to the loose supply - demand of propylene itself and the continuous suppression from the PP end. Short - term policy news may drive valuation repair, but the sustainability of the rebound depends on the actual improvement of the fundamentals [2]. - The near - term trading is affected by the overall loose fundamentals and the weak PP trend. The long - term outlook is bearish due to expected new production capacity, the imbalance between PP terminal demand and supply growth, and cost - side pressure [5][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - sentiment and policy disturbances: The recent market is influenced by "anti - involution" news, leading to a short - term low - level rebound of some chemical products. The sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen [1]. - Stable spot supply - demand: This week, the overall supply - demand gap changed little. On the supply side, Guangzhou Petrochemical restarted and Jinhai Chemical had maintenance, with little change in overall production and capacity utilization. On the demand side, there was a slight increase. In the Shandong market, supply increased and demand decreased, causing a slight price decline [1]. - Suppression from major downstream PP: PP supply is abundant, and the price spread between PP and propylene has significantly shrunk. The weak PP price continues to suppress the propylene market. Short - term "anti - involution" may cause a phased rebound in the futures market, mainly for sentiment repair [1]. - PDH profit pressure: The price of propane in the international market remains strong. The PDH industry is in a continuous loss state, and attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback caused by profit contraction [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market positioning**: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the PL03 price range at 5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton. The overall trend is still weakly fluctuating, and it may rebound slightly due to some macro factors, but the short - term expectation is a weakly fluctuating trend. Follow - up attention should be paid to policy implementation and PDH unit maintenance [15]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: - Basis strategy: The basis is expected to shrink as the spot price weakened slightly this week while the futures market was fluctuating [16]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Consider expanding the PP - PL spread on dips and the PL/PG ratio on dips, but stay on the sidelines for now. Pay attention to PP unit maintenance [17]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Propylene price range forecast: The price of propylene is expected to be in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.1319, and the historical percentage of volatility in the past 3 years is 0.7378 [19]. - Hedging strategies: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short - sell propylene futures at high prices to lock in profits and sell call options to collect premiums. For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy propylene futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to collect premiums [21]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Six departments issued a notice to promote the clean and efficient utilization of new and existing coal development projects and eliminate backward production capacity and processes. Geopolitical tensions may support oil prices [22]. - **Negative information**: Some PDH units under maintenance will restart, and the PDH operating rate has returned to a relatively high level of 75%. The PP market remains in a state of high supply [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - On December 22, China's December LPR will be announced. On December 23, the revised value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarter growth rate of the US real GDP in Q3 will be released [27]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Domestic market**: The PL03 contract fluctuated this week. The net positions of major profitable seats decreased, and there were no obvious changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the order book. The net long positions of profitable seats, foreign investors decreased slightly, and the net short positions of retail investors increased slightly. Technically, the daily - line chart shows a downward trend, suppressed by the middle Bollinger Band. In the short - term, it fluctuated in the range of 5,650 - 5,800 [25]. - **Basis and calendar spread structure**: This week, the basis of propylene 03 was 220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton compared with last week. The 02 - 03 calendar spread was 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton compared with last week [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Up - and Down - stream Profit Tracking - **Upstream profit**: The gross profit of major refineries this week was 614 yuan/ton (- 31), and that of Shandong local refineries was 472 yuan/ton (+ 29). The operating rate at the cracking end changed little [31]. - **Mid - stream profit**: The propane cracking profit declined significantly, and the profitability of LPG cracking decreased. The PDH profit based on FEI was - 289 yuan/ton (- 46), and that based on CP was - 431 yuan/ton (+ 122). The PDH industry remained in a loss state [32]. - **Down - stream profit**: The price spreads between PP拉丝/PP powder and propylene rebounded slightly. The profit of the chlorohydrin method for propylene oxide decreased. The overall loss of acrylonitrile was still large. The profit of acrylic acid weakened. The profit of butanol was compressed, and the profit of octanol recovered at a low level but was still under pressure. The profit of phenol - acetone weakened [34]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - The price spread between China and South Korea for propylene has been stable recently. The CFR China price is 740 US dollars (- 5) [49]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection in the Shandong Market - This week, supply increased and demand decreased slightly in the Shandong market, and the spot price declined. The increase in supply mainly came from the复产 of PDH units, and the decrease in demand was due to the maintenance of Jineng and Yulong in the PP sector [51]. 5.2 Market Supply and Projection - This week, there were both start - ups and shut - downs. The overall operating rate of propylene was 74.11% (- 0.1%), still at a high level. Guangzhou Petrochemical's 600,000 - ton steam cracking unit restarted, and Jinhai Chemical's 210,000 - ton steam cracking unit was under maintenance [54]. 5.3 Demand and Projection - This week, the price spreads between PP granules/powder and propylene rebounded slightly, and the operating rate of the granule end remained stable. The price spread of PP powder also rebounded slightly but was still at a low level, and the number of maintenance units increased. For other downstream products, the price of propylene oxide declined, the profit of the chlorohydrin method decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. The production of acrylonitrile changed little. The operating rate of butanol and octanol increased. The capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid was at a phased high. The production of phenol - acetone changed due to unit restarts and maintenance. The demand in the Shandong region increased this week, mainly due to the复产 and increased load of PP, PO, acrylonitrile, and octanol [63][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the polyester production growth rate is expected to gradually slow down, but the demand growth rate is still estimated to reach around 4.5%, maintaining resilience. The terminal weaving orders have declined comprehensively, and the demand negative feedback will gradually spread upstream. The polyester load is expected to decline from late December, with the monthly average polyester load in January - March estimated at 89%, 84%, and 89.5% respectively. In the off - season, the demand side is difficult to drive prices upward [1]. - For MEG in 2026, the main trend will return to a pattern of oscillating and bottom - grinding. With the successive launch of new production capacities, high - level operation and high valuation are difficult to maintain. After the inventory accumulation expectation, the valuation has been rapidly compressed. Although the static supply - demand balance has improved, the cost side may bring additional negative factors. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation to clear marginal production capacities, and the "reversal" may depend on macro - narrative drivers [1][19]. - PTA's production cut since the fourth quarter of 2025 has exceeded market expectations, alleviating the PX - TA structural contradiction. In 2026, there are plans to launch two PX production facilities with a total capacity of 5 million tons, expected to be put into operation after the third quarter, while PTA is not expected to have new capacity launches. In the first half of 2026, PTA's supply is expected to be tight against downstream demand, but the final inventory reduction depends on PTA's production cut intensity. PX's supply - demand pattern is favorable, and it is expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall. However, before the upward driver appears, there may be a phased correction [2][26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review 3.1.1 MEG Market Review - In Q1 2025, MEG prices dropped significantly due to cost collapse and weakening supply - demand patterns. In January, prices oscillated at a high level; in February, they rebounded slightly and then fell; in March, they were in low - level consolidation [3]. - In Q2 2025, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. The price once hit a low of 3956 yuan/ton and then rebounded. The geopolitical events in June led to price fluctuations [4]. - In Q3 2025, the "anti - involution" sentiment affected prices. The price reached a high of 4580 yuan/ton and then oscillated [4]. - In Q4 2025, MEG's valuation was continuously compressed with inventory accumulation and weak cost, and the price showed an oscillating downward trend [4][5]. 3.1.2 PTA Market Review - In Q1 2025, PTA prices mainly fluctuated with the cost, oscillating between 4700 - 5350 yuan/ton [8]. - In Q2 2025, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. The price once dropped to 4016 yuan/ton and then rebounded [9]. - In Q3 2025, PTA prices oscillated widely between 4500 - 5000 yuan/ton under the influence of cost and macro factors [10]. - In Q4 2025, PTA prices lacked a core driver after a rebound, oscillating narrowly between 4550 - 4800 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.2.1 MEG - In 2026, MEG will be in an oscillating and bottom - grinding pattern. The short - term weak pattern will continue, with port inventory expected to reach over 1.1 million tons in Q1 2026. The demand negative feedback will spread upstream, and the cost side remains weak [19][20]. - The "anti - involution" as a macro - mainline trading focus may repeatedly dominate the commodity market. The risk points for upward rebound mainly include unexpected reduction in large - scale production facilities, macro - policy benefits, and significant cost increase [23]. 3.2.2 PTA - PTA's production cut since Q4 2025 has alleviated the PX - TA structural contradiction. In 2026, PX has new capacity launch plans, while PTA has none. In H1 2026, PTA supply is tight against downstream demand, and PX is expected to be in a favorable supply - demand pattern, prone to rising and difficult to fall [2][26]. - In the near - term, the negative feedback from the terminal will spread upstream, and PX's valuation may correct. In the long - term, PX is expected to maintain an upward - prone pattern, and PTA's processing fee may be further repaired, but the supply - benefit dynamic balance will be the long - term main logic [28][29]. 3.3 Chapter 4: MEG Industry Analysis 3.3.1 MEG Industry Pattern Analysis - China's MEG production capacity has increased rapidly in recent years, changing from supply shortage to over - supply. In 2025, new capacity launches led to inventory accumulation expectations and a decline in valuation [33]. - Currently, the total MEG production capacity in the Chinese mainland is 30.275 million tons, with ethylene - based capacity accounting for 63% and coal - based capacity accounting for 37%. The production efficiency of coal - based MEG has improved, but it is expected to face pressure in 2026 [33][34]. 3.3.2 MEG Supply Analysis - In 2025, China's MEG production increased mainly due to the increase in operating rates. However, after the launch of new capacity in September, the valuation was under pressure, and the production profit of coal - based MEG was compressed in Q4 [36]. - In terms of product switching, some enterprises switched production between EO and EG based on production efficiency. In 2026, under the background of loose supply - demand, the MEG load is expected to decrease year - on - year [37]. - In 2025, the MEG import volume increased year - on - year, and the import source concentration increased. If India's anti - dumping policy is implemented, the global MEG logistics pattern may be reconstructed [48][49]. 3.3.3 MEG Balance Sheet Analysis - In Q1 2026, MEG is expected to have a slight over - supply, with an estimated cumulative over - supply of about 350,000 tons. In Q2, if the maintenance plans are implemented as scheduled and the polyester demand is in the peak season, there may be a supply - demand gap of about 300,000 tons. The annual demand growth rate is estimated at around 4.5% [57]. 3.4 Chapter 5: PTA Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 PX - PTA Industry Pattern Analysis - China's PX production capacity expansion has paused since 2024, while PTA has maintained a high - speed growth trend. The PX supply - demand pattern is relatively tight, while PTA has an over - supply problem, and the clearing of backward production capacities and the increase in exports are the main focuses for improving the supply - demand structure [59]. 3.4.2 PTA Supply Analysis and Valuation Feedback - In 2025, PTA's processing fee showed significant fluctuations. In Q4, due to production cuts, the processing fee was repaired, but in the long - term, it is expected to remain under pressure. In 2026, the supply - benefit dynamic balance is expected to be maintained, and the processing fee's upward space is limited [63][64]. 3.4.3 PTA Export Demand Analysis - In 2025, PTA exports decreased year - on - year, mainly due to the new production capacity in Turkey. The export reduction was partially transferred to other countries [67]. 3.4.4 PTA Balance Sheet Analysis - In 2026, the polyester load is expected to decline seasonally. In Q1, PTA is expected to have a slight over - supply of 100,000 - 150,000 tons, and in Q2, there will be a large supply - demand gap. The actual inventory reduction depends on the restart plans of PTA production facilities [74][75]. 3.5 Chapter 6: Polyester Demand Analysis 3.5.1 Start - up Performance - In 2025, polyester production increased by 7.4% year - on - year, and the production capacity growth rate slowed down. Currently, the terminal orders have declined, and the polyester demand load is expected to decline from late December. In Q1 2026, the polyester load is estimated at 89%, 84%, and 89.5% in January - March respectively [77]. 3.5.2 Macro - demand - In 2025, China's social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4% year - on - year, while textile and clothing consumption maintained a low - speed growth. The export demand was affected by international situations, with the growth rate decreasing in the second half of the year [98][103].

Core Viewpoint - PX and PTA futures contracts experienced significant increases, breaking through three-month highs, indicating a positive market outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond [5][16]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 19, PX2603 contract rose by 252 CNY to 7070 CNY/ton, with a trading volume increase of 52,000 lots, marking a 3.7% rise [5][16]. - PTA2605 contract increased by 158 CNY to 4884 CNY/ton, with a trading volume surge of 190,000 lots, reflecting a 3.34% increase [5][16]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply outlook for PX and PTA is limited, with no new PX capacity added in the first three quarters of 2026 and no new PTA capacity planned domestically for the year [6][17]. - Polyester production capacity is estimated at 4 million tons, with a neutral growth rate of 4-5%, leading to a supply-demand mismatch and a tighter market overall [6][17]. Group 3: Maintenance and Operational Status - Recent supply and demand conditions for PX and PTA have remained stable, with major PTA suppliers expected to continue maintenance into the new year, resulting in minimal seasonal inventory pressure [7][18]. - Three main production units are under maintenance, with expectations for continued maintenance into January-February 2026, while polyester production is anticipated to maintain high operational rates [9][21]. Group 4: Price Elasticity and Future Outlook - PX shows stronger price elasticity compared to PTA, with no new PX capacity expected from 2024, while PTA's production growth has been faster in recent years [10][22]. - The market sentiment for 2026 remains optimistic, with expectations for a balanced supply-demand situation and potential for price recovery in PTA processing fees [11][23].

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound, with WTI January contract closing at $56.15 per barrel, up $0.21 (0.38%) [2][16] - Brent February contract closed at $59.82 per barrel, up $0.14 (0.23%) [2][16] - Venezuela's oil exports face risks due to U.S. threats of sanctions and blockade on oil tankers, potentially affecting 600,000 barrels per day [2][16] - The largest refinery in Venezuela, Amuay, has resumed production after a power outage, with a daily capacity of 645,000 barrels [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 2.01% to 2439 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 increased by 1.59% to 2931 yuan/ton [3][17] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.402 million barrels (5.38%) to 24.658 million barrels [3][17] - The Asian fuel oil market is expected to remain well-supplied through December and January due to substantial supply from the Middle East [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 increased by 0.68% to 2952 yuan/ton [4][18] - Domestic asphalt shipment volume decreased by 3.8% week-on-week, totaling 384,000 tons [4][18] - The market shows concerns over raw material shortages due to tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [4][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 fell by 70 yuan/ton to 15,320 yuan/ton, while NR and BR contracts also saw declines [5][19] - China's rubber tire exports reached 8.83 million tons in the first 11 months of 2025, up 3.7% year-on-year [5][19] - The production of synthetic rubber in China for November 2025 was 779,000 tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year [5][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 4748 yuan/ton, up 1.37%, while EG2605 closed at 3767 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [6][20] - PX futures closed at 6862 yuan/ton, up 1.33%, with spot prices at $840/ton [6][20] - Ethylene glycol operating rates in mainland China increased to 71.97%, up 2.04% week-on-week [6][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were 2155 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices at $243-247/ton [7][21] - Domestic supply remains stable, while demand is expected to weaken due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [7][21] - The parking of Iranian facilities may lead to a decline in imports in late December to January [7][21] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China ranged from 6120 to 6350 yuan/ton, with production margins negative across various production methods [8][22] - HDPE film prices decreased by 144 yuan/ton, while LDPE and LLDPE also saw declines [8][22] - The market is transitioning towards oversupply, with inventory pressures increasing [8][22][23] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4400 to 4510 yuan/ton [9][24] - Supply is expected to increase slightly due to planned restarts of some facilities [9][24] - Domestic demand is anticipated to slow down as construction activity in real estate decreases [9][24] Urea - Urea futures prices rose by 1.67% to 1708 yuan/ton, with spot prices increasing in major regions [10][25] - Supply levels have slightly decreased, with daily production at 191,800 tons, down 3200 tons day-on-day [10][25] - Market sentiment remains positive due to various factors, including Indian tenders and macroeconomic recovery [10][25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices increased by 2.14% to 1193 yuan/ton, with stable spot prices [11][26] - Production decreased by 1.91% to 721,400 tons, while inventory levels showed slight fluctuations [11][26] - Demand remains weak, with expectations of reduced consumption in downstream industries [11][26] Glass - Glass futures prices rose by 2.31% to 1062 yuan/ton, with signs of stabilization in the spot market [12][27] - The industry maintains a daily melting capacity of 155,000 tons, with potential cold repairs expected [12][27] - Inventory levels increased by 0.57%, indicating weak demand persistence [12][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene should be watched for a bottom - reversal, with a weak start and a strong finish. In 2026, the three factors causing weakness in 2025 are expected to improve marginally, but the short - term contradiction of "weak chemical reality" remains prominent. The price is expected to be under pressure in Q1 2026, and there may be a chance of a bottom - rebound in Q2. The second half of the year depends on domestic macro - policies. The whole year is expected to show a wide - range shock with a lower - then - higher center of gravity [3][98]. - The processing fee center of styrene is expected to remain at a medium - to - high level. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain in 2026 supports its price. However, if the demand in the traditional peak season in the first half of 2026 fails to meet expectations or export momentum weakens, the industry chain may face a late negative feedback [4][99]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Pure Benzene and Styrene Trend Review 3.1.1 2025 Pure Benzene Price Trend Review - In Q1 2025, due to high import volume, downstream hidden inventory pressure, and downstream losses, the pure benzene price was under pressure and showed a weak shock pattern [6]. - In the middle and late Q2, the price rebounded and stabilized due to the recovery of downstream operations, spring inspections, and the progress of tariff negotiations [7]. - In the second half of 2025, the price fluctuated downward. In Q3, it was in a shock pattern, and in Q4, it further declined due to cost and supply - demand collapses [7][8]. 3.1.2 2025 Styrene Price Review - In Q1 2025, the styrene market was weak. Although there was cost support and optimistic demand expectations at the beginning, the price declined after the Spring Festival due to weak downstream replenishment and looser cost support [14]. - In Q2, affected by international political turmoil, the price showed a shock pattern, with significant fluctuations due to tariff policies, trade negotiations, and cost changes [15]. - In Q3, supply increased while demand decreased, and the price trended weakly. Although there was a short - term price increase in late August, high inventory led to a price decline [16]. - In November, the processing fee was quickly repaired, and the basis gradually strengthened in December [17][18]. 3.2 Pure Benzene: Weak Chemical Reality vs. Strong Gasoline - Blending Expectation, Focus on Bottom - Reversal Opportunity in Q2 2026 3.2.1 Low Valuation, Marginal Supply Contraction, Pure Benzene to Gradually Find the Bottom and Rebound after Q2 2026 - In 2025, the weakness of pure benzene was due to concentrated hoarding, unfulfilled gasoline - blending expectations, and weak domestic demand [21]. - In 2026, the three factors are expected to improve marginally. The consensus hoarding expectation has weakened, gasoline - blending expectations are strong with expected import reduction, and the downstream demand price elasticity has increased [24][26][30]. - Overall, pure benzene is in a pattern of being weak in Q1 and strengthening in Q2. The performance in the second half of the year depends on domestic demand policies [32]. 3.2.2 In 2026, the Domestic Industrial Chain of Pure Benzene Has Little Contradiction in Production, Focus on Maintenance Rhythm and Overseas Capacity Exit - In 2026, the domestic production pattern is not the main contradiction for pure benzene. The core is the operating rate of existing devices. The new production of downstream products slows down, and the new production of pure benzene is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year [34]. - The key for pure benzene supply is the maintenance situation in 2026. The maintenance is less in the first half and more in the second half of the year. The private refineries mainly conduct maintenance in the first half, and the major refineries in the fourth quarter [37]. - In Asia, the production progress of pure benzene is greater than that of downstream products in 2026. Overseas devices in Europe and South Korea face the risk of exit, which may ease the high - inventory pressure [40][41]. 3.2.3 Gasoline - Blending Logic Eases the High Import Pressure of Pure Benzene, Focus on the Continuity of PX - BZ - High imports were the core problem for the weakness of pure benzene in 2025. In 2026, China's pure benzene imports are expected to decrease. The annual import is expected to be 5.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [43]. - The realization of the pure benzene logistics window between the US and Asia depends on factors such as the overseas supply recovery, the negotiation of contracts between Chinese downstream factories and overseas suppliers, and the overseas downstream device exit progress [47]. - PX - BZ has long - term driving factors. It is recommended to buy the spread after the winter cold wave in the US causes an aromatic hydrocarbon callback [49]. 3.3 Styrene: The Processing Fee Center Moves Up 3.3.1 In 2026, There Is Little New Production of Styrene, and the Processing Fee Remains at a Medium - to - High Level - In 2026, the new production of styrene is limited, with only 600,000 tons of Huajin Aramco to be put into production. The downstream production is relatively large [52]. - It is expected that the annual processing fee range of styrene in 2026 will remain at a medium - to - high level, mainly because the high - inventory problem of pure benzene needs time to be solved, and the negative feedback of styrene's downstream 3S is postponed [53]. 3.3.2 The Overseas Production of Styrene Is Low, Focus on the Export Increment in 2026 - Global styrene capacity has been exiting, and overseas production has been shrinking. The low overseas production in 2025 is beneficial to the operation and profit of domestic styrene [55]. - Against the background of low overseas supply, China's styrene industry chain exports have gradually increased. In 2025, the exports of styrene, ABS, and PS increased year - on - year, and direct exports are expected to become more normalized [57]. 3.3.3 The Downstream 3S Maintains High Apparent Demand at Low Prices, Focus on the Late Negative Feedback in the First Half of 2026 - In 2025, the apparent demand growth rate of styrene was 13.7%. The downstream 3S maintained rapid growth due to capacity expansion, substitution effects, and stable exports [61]. - Currently, the downstream factories have high inventory but low actual pressure. However, in the first half of 2026, if the peak season demand cannot drive inventory transfer, the industry chain may face negative feedback [67][78]. - 2026 is a year of transformation for the strength of domestic and export demand for home appliances. If domestic demand policies do not work, the 3S with high inventory may face pressure in the first half of the year, and the market may improve in the second half [79]. 3.4 Other Demands for Pure Benzene: Capacity Reaches the Peak, and the Growth Rates of the Four Downstream Sectors Decline 3.4.1 The Apparent Demand Growth Rate of the Four Small Downstream Sectors Is Weaker than That of Styrene - In 2025, the demand proportion of styrene recovered, while that of aniline and phenol decreased significantly. The growth rates of the four small downstream sectors were weaker than that of styrene, mainly due to the end of the production cycle and weak domestic demand [85]. 3.4.2 It Is Expected that the Growth Rates of Caprolactam and Aniline Will Remain at 5% - 6% in 2026 - It is expected that the overall demand growth rate of caprolactam in 2026 will be about 5%. The growth rate in 2025 was lower than expected. In 2026, factors such as profit repair and potential domestic demand recovery will support its growth [88]. - It is expected that the apparent demand of aniline in 2026 will be 3.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. In 2025, the demand was lower than expected. In 2026, it is expected to benefit from the recovery of domestic demand and increased direct exports [91]. 3.4.3 Phenol Will Have a Major Maintenance Year in 2026, and the Annual Apparent Demand Is Expected to Increase by 2.4% Year - on - Year - In 2025, the apparent demand of phenol was flat year - on - year. In 2026, due to maintenance in the first half of the year and new device production in the second half, the annual apparent demand is expected to be 5.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% [93]. 3.4.4 It Is Expected that the Growth Rate of Adipic Acid Will Remain at + 3.7% in 2026 - In 2025, adipic acid and its downstream industry chain prices and profits were low. In 2026, with only 180,000 tons of new production planned, the annual apparent demand is expected to increase by 3.7% year - on - year [95].

化工日报 | 2025-12-17 检修计划增多，EG低位反弹 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3700元/吨（较前一交易日变动+49元/吨，幅度+1.34%），EG华东市场现货价 3636元/吨（较前一交易日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.11%），EG华东现货基差-20元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-95美元/吨（环比+2美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1075 元/吨（环比+56元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为75.5万吨（环比+3.6万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数14万吨，副 港到港量2.2万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.8万吨，副港到港量3万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡略 累。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着检修兑现，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，近端供应压力有所缓解，但1月又将恢 复高供应，后续关注价格下降后乙二醇装置新增检修情况；海外供应方面，本周乙二醇外轮到货量回归中性，港 口 ...