Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on November 5th, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Polysilicon dropped over 2%, and fiberboard, asphalt, caustic soda, red dates, rebar, polypropylene, styrene, and international copper fell over 1%. On the upside, the European Line of container shipping rose over 4%, and eggs, rapeseed meal, live pigs, soybean meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1, and pulp rose over 1%. The CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract rose 0.41%, the SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.01%, the CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.55%, and the CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.77%. The 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract fell 0.01%, the 5-year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract remained flat, the 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract fell 0.01%, and the 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.08% [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:31 on November 5th, the CSI 1000 2512 contract had an inflow of 2.188 billion yuan, the CSI 500 2512 contract had an inflow of 553 million yuan, and the SSE 50 2512 contract had an inflow of 403 million yuan. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract had an outflow of 1.08 billion yuan, the Shanghai Copper 2512 contract had an outflow of 918 million yuan, and the Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract had an outflow of 682 million yuan [7]. 2. Commodity Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and moved high, showing weakness during the day. The US government shutdown continued, and the copper supply was tight due to the accident in the Indonesian copper mine and the upcoming smelter maintenance. The scrap copper supply was expected to increase with the rising copper price. The downstream demand was suppressed, and the inventory was slightly increasing. The copper price lacked a clear signal [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low, moved high, and then declined during the day. The upstream production was active, with an increase in output. The downstream demand was strong, driven by the energy storage battery. The inventory was decreasing. However, the market was affected by the news of large - scale production resumption, showing a pattern of both supply and demand increase. If the resumption news was confirmed, the supply might become more abundant, and the price might be weak in the short term [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, which would increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve it in the first quarter of next year. The demand peak season ended, and the market was worried about the demand. The supply - surplus pattern remained, but the export of Russian crude oil was expected to be restricted. The price was expected to fluctuate recently [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply was expected to decrease in November. The downstream demand was affected by funds and weather. The inventory was at a low level. The crude oil price fluctuated, and the asphalt futures price was expected to be weak and volatile [15]. PP - The PP downstream开工率 increased slightly, but the plastic weaving开工率 decreased. The supply increased with new capacity and fewer maintenance devices. The demand in the peak season was lower than expected. The price was expected to be weak and volatile [16][17]. Plastic - The plastic开工率 increased, and the downstream开工率 decreased. The supply increased with new capacity. The demand in the peak season was not as good as expected. The price was expected to be weak and volatile [18]. PVC - The PVC开工率 increased, and the downstream开工率 was low. The export was expected to weaken. The inventory was high, and the real - estate market was still adjusting. The price was expected to be weak and volatile [20]. Coking Coal - The coking coal supply tightened, and the inventory was transferred downward. The demand was weak in the short term due to environmental protection restrictions but was expected to recover. The supply - demand balance was tight [21][22]. Urea - The urea upstream factory's shipment improved, and the price rose slightly. The production was expected to be high. The downstream demand was mainly for terminal fertilizer storage. The inventory increased. The price was expected to consolidate at a low level without substantial positive news [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of crude oil continues to be strong due to a decrease in Russian crude oil exports and rising VLCC freight rates. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. The chemical industry shows a demand for stopping the decline and stabilizing under the situation of crude oil fluctuations [2][3]. - The chemical products in the industry have different trends. Some products may stop falling and stabilize, while others continue to be under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. API data shows an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, but the reduction in refined oil inventories and strong crack spreads support demand. OPEC+ plans to pause production increases in Q1 2026, but the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation is difficult to change, so the price fluctuates [8]. - **Chemical Industry**: Affected by the crude oil market, most chemical products are in a state of shock. Some products are facing cost and supply - demand pressures, while others have certain profit supports [3][4]. 3.2 Variety Analysis - **Asphalt**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, the asphalt futures price lacks support. The high - valued premium is starting to decline, and it is expected that the absolute price is over - valued and the monthly spread may decline [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil weakens, the fuel oil price is weak. Although the supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decrease in November, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weak trend of crude oil. Facing factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, it has a low valuation and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [9][10]. - **PX**: The supply has not decreased, and there is support for profits under the situation of strong supply and demand. It is expected to return to the cost and fundamental pricing logic in the short - term and maintain range consolidation [11]. - **PTA**: The market is waiting and watching, and there is a bottom - support for short - term profits. It is expected that the price will fluctuate with cost and macro - sentiment, and there is a weakening expectation in the medium - term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is running weakly. The pure benzene - naphtha price spread is at a low level in recent years, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. Although there are some supply disturbances, the upward drive is still insufficient [11][12]. - **Styrene**: There is still a risk of inventory over - filling, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The cost - side has some disturbances, but it does not reverse the situation, and the follow - up rhythm depends on crude oil [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Under the resonance of cost and fundamentals, it is in a downward trend, and the medium - term supply surplus problem is difficult to solve. The price is under pressure in the short - term [15][16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream factories are digesting previous stockpiles, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed to a certain extent. The price follows the cost and fluctuates weakly [19][20]. - **Bottle Chip**: Affected by cost, the supply - demand drive is limited. The price follows the raw materials, and the support for the processing fee below is enhanced [21]. - **Methanol**: After continuous decline, it is not advisable to chase short positions. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and there is still value in going long at a low level [23][26]. - **Urea**: There is a co - existence of high - inventory suppression and cost support. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the information of the Nanjing Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference [24]. - **Plastic**: The OPEC+ production increase is cautious. Considering the fundamentals and profit situation, it is expected to fluctuate within a range [27][28]. - **PP**: There is still some support on the cost side. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the change and sustainability of maintenance [28][29]. - **PL**: The improvement in downstream transactions is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [29]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the cost of integrated production in the northwest may support the market [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the cost is moving up. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the trading strategy is to go short on rallies [31]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring**: The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and cross - variety spreads of various energy and chemical products, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [33][34][35]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although the report lists various chemicals such as methanol, urea, etc., specific content is not fully presented in the provided text. - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all show a decline. The energy index also shows a downward trend, with a daily decline of 1.07%, a 5 - day decline of 0.25%, a 1 - month decline of 5.01%, and a decline of 5.08% since the beginning of the year [274][276].

Commodity Price Information - Crude oil price on November 4, 2025, was $576.50 per ton, down 1.01% from the previous value of $582.38 [1] - The price of the Northeast Asia ethylene in the upstream cost on November 3, 2025, was $741.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region on November 4, 2025, was $6000.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price of methanol on November 4, 2025, was $2095.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The含税 price of lignite in Inner Mongolia on November 4, 2025, was $290.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The closing price of the main contract on November 4, 2025, was $3901.00 per ton, up 571.74% compared to a certain reference [1] - The settlement price of the main contract on November 4, 2025, was $3930.00 per ton, up 1% compared to a certain reference [1] - The closing price of the near - month contract on November 4, 2025, was $3860.00 per ton, with a change compared to a certain reference [1] - The settlement price of the near - month contract on November 4, 2025, was $3891.00 per ton [1] - The price on November 4, 2025, was $4018.00 per ton, up 5.134% compared to a certain reference [1] - The market price of ethylene glycol in the East China region on November 4, 2025, was $4070.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price of domestic ethylene glycol on November 4, 2025, was $3900.00 per ton, up 1.73% compared to a certain reference [1] - The price difference between near - month and far - month contracts on November 4, 2025, was $88.00 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The basis difference on November 4, 2025, was $74.00 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] Production and Operation Information - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol on November 4, 2025, was 66.51%, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol on November 4, 2025, was 9.61%, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The load rate of the PTA industry chain factory on November 4, 2025, was 89.68%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The load rate of the textile machine industry in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA industry chain on November 4, 2025, was 72.28%, unchanged from the previous value [1] External Market and Profit Information - The price of foreign - market oil - based ethylene glycol on November 3, 2025, was $1423.1 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The price of foreign - market ethylene - based ethylene glycol on November 3, 2025, was $1026.9 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The after - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis gas method on November 4, 2025, was $1466.3 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The after - tax gross profit of a certain equipment on November 4, 2025, was $1022.1 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] Product Price Index Information - The price index of polyester on November 4, 2025, was $8500.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price index of polyester chips on November 4, 2025, was $6825.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber on November 4, 2025, was $630.00 per ton, up 0.08% compared to a certain reference [1] - The price index of bottle - grade chips on November 4, 2025, was $5715.00 per ton, up 0.26% compared to a certain reference [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, port inventory has rebounded again, indicating weak downstream提货 demand. Styrene is in the maintenance period, and the start - up rates of caprolactam and phenol are still low. On the supply side, the domestic pure benzene start - up rate has bottomed out and rebounded [3]. - For styrene, short - term maintenance continues, but port arrivals are still available. The decline in port inventory is due to a short - term increase in downstream提货, but the start - up of ABS is consolidating at a low level, and the start - up of PS has further decreased. The inventory pressure of the three major hard rubber products is still high, and the continuous performance of downstream提货 remains to be observed. The port basis of styrene has rebounded slightly, and low - level transactions have improved [3]. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Figures related to pure benzene basis and futures price, pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first contract - continuous third contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene continuous first contract - continuous third contract spread are presented [8][13][16] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Figures related to naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB Korea - naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated plant production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - pure benzene FOB Korea, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - CFR China, pure benzene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, styrene FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and styrene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China are presented [19][22][31] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Start - up Rate - Figures related to pure benzene East China port inventory, pure benzene start - up rate, styrene East China port inventory, styrene start - up rate, styrene East China commercial inventory, and styrene factory inventory are presented [37][39][42] IV. Styrene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Figures related to EPS start - up rate, EPS production profit, PS start - up rate, PS production profit, ABS start - up rate, and ABS production profit are presented [48][50][53] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Figures related to caprolactam start - up rate, phenol - ketone start - up rate, aniline start - up rate, adipic acid start - up rate, caprolactam production gross profit, phenol - ketone production gross profit, aniline production gross profit, adipic acid production gross profit, PA6 regular spinning bright production gross profit, nylon filament production gross profit, bisphenol A production gross profit, PC production gross profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production gross profit, pure MDI production gross profit, and polymer MDI production gross profit are presented [57][60][69] Market Data Pure Benzene - Main basis: - 33 yuan/ton (+53) [1] - Port inventory: 12.10 million tons (+3.60 million tons) [1] - CFR China processing fee: 99 US dollars/ton (+2 US dollars/ton) [1] - FOB Korea processing fee: 81 US dollars/ton (+1 US dollar/ton) [1] - US - Korea spread: 72.4 US dollars/ton (+0.0 US dollar/ton) [1] - East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread: - 65 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [1] - Downstream production profits: caprolactam - 1855 yuan/ton (+15), phenol - ketone - 553 yuan/ton (-75), aniline 1098 yuan/ton (+48), adipic acid - 1215 yuan/ton (-37) [1] - Downstream start - up rates: caprolactam 86.05% (-2.84%), phenol 78.00% (+0.00%), aniline 78.57% (+2.09%), adipic acid 58.00% (+2.20%) [1] Styrene - Main basis: 46 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton) [1] - Non - integrated production profit: - 444 yuan/ton (-49 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1] - East China port inventory: 179,300 tons (-13,700 tons) [1] - East China commercial inventory: 109,800 tons (-11,200 tons), in the inventory reconstruction stage [1] - Start - up rate: 66.7% (-2.5%) [1] Downstream Hard Rubber - EPS production profit: 314 yuan/ton (+59 yuan/ton) [2] - PS production profit: - 36 yuan/ton (+9 yuan/ton) [2] - ABS production profit: - 38 yuan/ton (+106 yuan/ton) [2] - EPS start - up rate: 62.24% (+0.27%) [2] - PS start - up rate: 52.00% (-1.80%) [2] - ABS start - up rate: 72.10% (-0.70%) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell and hedge BZ and EB at high prices [4] - Basis and inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mostly by traders. The polyester factories are less active. The spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side. Pay attention to device changes [5]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol has been continuously weakening, and the market negotiation is light. The supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium and long term, and the market sentiment is under pressure. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will weaken in the near future. Pay attention to cost and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis loosened. The mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 75 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4525, and the 01 - contract basis is - 79, with the futures price at a premium. It is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.03 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period. It is bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. It is bullish [6]. - Main position: The net short position is decreasing. It is bearish [6]. - **MEG** - Fundamental: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol continued to weaken, and the market negotiation was light. The overall sentiment in the market was weak. The spot basis of this week weakened to a premium of about 70 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The overseas market price of ethylene glycol dropped significantly. It is neutral [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 3995, and the 01 - contract basis is 94, with the futures price at a discount. It is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 49.8 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons compared to the previous period. It is bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [7]. - Main position: The main net short position is increasing. It is bearish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - **Price**: It includes the prices and price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester on November 4 and November 3, 2025 [13]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, ethylene glycol, PET chips, and polyester products from 2020 to 2025 [41]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates**: It shows the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [52][56]. - **Profit**: It shows the profit data of PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester products from 2020 to 2025 [60][62].

1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The EG market remains weak under high supply pressure. The main EG contract closed at 3,901 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton (-1.74%) from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 3,995 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-1.72%) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$48/ton (down $5/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was -724 yuan/ton (down 67 yuan/ton) [1]. - MEG inventory in the main ports of East China increased. According to CCF data, it was 56.2 tons (up 3.9 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 49.9 tons (up 1.6 tons). The arrival plan this week is large, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol production is at a high level, and overseas supply losses are still significant with limited change in import expectations. On the demand side, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. - In the fourth quarter, there is a large pressure for inventory accumulation under high supply, with many production plans, and port inventory is expected to gradually rise [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The main EG contract closed at 3,901 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton (-1.74%) from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 3,995 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-1.72%). The spot basis in the East China market was 73 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$48/ton (down $5/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was -724 yuan/ton (down 67 yuan/ton) [1]. International Spread No specific content related to international spread is provided in the given text. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 56.2 tons (up 3.9 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 49.9 tons (up 1.6 tons). The arrival plan this week is large, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. Under high supply, there is significant pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and port inventory is expected to gradually rise [2]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of EG2601 - EG2605 [2]. - Inter - variety: No strategy is provided [2].

近期，国内甲醇期货与现货价格承压运行，高库存成为市场关注的焦点。 期货日报记者观察到，国庆假期之后，甲醇现货价格持续下跌，且区域差异明显。 汤剑林预计，随着伊朗装置季节性停车兑现，进口压力将逐步缓解，港口库存压力有望在明年一季度明 显下降。 在彭杰斌看来，港口库存压力缓解需要供应出现实质性收缩。"伊朗12月至次年2月的出口量将显著减 少；国内西南地区天然气制甲醇装置预计11月底开始限产，因此库存拐点最早可能出现在11月下 旬。"他称。 "长期来看，随着供应下降和新增需求释放，甲醇价格有望企稳回升。但短期而言，库存累积趋势未 改、MTO外采减少、传统需求淡季延续，市场仍将面临下行压力。"彭杰斌称。 汤剑林表示，虽然市场存在季节性供应减少的预期，但四季度进口量预计仍偏高，短期库存压力难以缓 解。 从短期来看，受访人士普遍认为甲醇市场基本面偏弱。汤剑林表示，期价快速下跌是基本面承压与化工 板块情绪偏弱共同作用的结果。在库存维持高位的背景下，甲醇价格暂无底部信号，缺乏向上驱动，短 期预计偏弱震荡，重点关注库存拐点确认时间。 蔡英超认为，内地甲醇需求自二季度起持续旺盛，国庆假期期间企业库存处于5年同期低位。港口高库 存 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given report Group 2: Core Views - The report covers various sectors including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing analyses and trading suggestions for each sector. For example, it expects that treasury bond futures may not have a trending market and advises caution; stock index futures are expected to have limited downside risk and suggests seizing opportunities to go long; precious metals are currently over - priced, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and then wait and see [6][9][11]. Group 3: Sector - Specific Summaries Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw mixed results for treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan. China's October S&P manufacturing PMI showed a slowdown in the expansion trend. Given the current economic situation, treasury bond futures are expected to have no trending market, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stocks - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. With the release of new immigration and entry - exit policies, and considering the current economic situation (stable but with weak recovery momentum), combined with low domestic asset valuations and sufficient economic resilience, along with the inflow of incremental funds and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade uncertainties, it is expected that there is limited downside risk, and opportunities to go long can be seized [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures showed small increases. Fed officials' remarks suggest potential interest rate cuts. The complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the slowdown of the US labor market are all favorable for precious metals. However, due to the recent large increase in prices, it is recommended to take profits on long positions and then wait and see [11]. Commodities - **Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The previous trading day, steel product futures slightly declined. In the medium term, the price of steel products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still in a year - on - year decline, and the supply side has over - capacity issues. Considering the current high inventory, the price of rebar is expected to remain weak, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high prices during rebounds [13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures significantly declined. The demand for iron ore has decreased, while the supply is expected to increase year - on - year in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is rising. The market supply - demand pattern has weakened, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high prices [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the price of coke is facing an upward adjustment. From a technical perspective, the futures may continue to be strong in the short term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [18][19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, ferroalloy futures showed small increases. The supply of ferroalloys is currently in a state of over - supply, but the cost is rising, and the downward space is limited. There may be short - term disturbances in supply reduction expectations, and investors can consider long - position opportunities at low prices [21][22]. - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The increase in the number of US drilling rigs does not necessarily lead to an increase in production. US sanctions on Russian oil companies and OPEC's decision to suspend production increases are all favorable for oil prices. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [23][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The recovery of Singapore's fuel oil supply is negative for prices, while the sanctions on Russia and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions are positive. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [26][27]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the PP and LLDPE markets showed some adjustments. In November, the impact of maintenance is expected to be high, and the inventory is low. November is the peak season for demand, so the market is expected to rebound. For now, it is recommended to wait and see [29]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The cost side is weak, and the price is expected to have limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes. The market is expected to oscillate [31][33]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The supply is affected by bad weather, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to production area conditions and demand expectations, and there may be long - position opportunities [34][35]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The current supply - demand situation is still oversupplied, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to export and supply reduction after the festival [36][37]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea futures declined. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to export policies and seasonal recovery signals of agricultural demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and the downward space is limited [38]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, PX futures increased. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost side is affected by crude oil fluctuations. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors can participate within a certain range while paying attention to crude oil changes and macro - policies [39]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures increased. The supply side has some adjustments, and the demand side is relatively stable. The processing fee is low, and the inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil prices [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the inventory may accumulate slightly. However, the demand is expected to improve, and the cost side sentiment is positive. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors can participate within a certain range while paying attention to port inventory and imports [41]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is improving, but the cost - driving force is limited. The price is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle chip futures increased. The processing fee has decreased, the supply is increasing slightly, and the export growth is slowing down. The price is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors should control risks [43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is also strong, with the inventory gradually decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day, copper futures declined. The Sino - US trade negotiation is in a stalemate, and the Fed's interest rate cut has a complex impact on copper prices. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and high prices suppress demand. The price is expected to enter a sideways consolidation phase [46][47]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, aluminum futures showed mixed results. The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the production of electrolytic aluminum may be affected by winter restrictions. High prices may suppress demand, but the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to remain at a high level [48][49][50]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, zinc futures increased. The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, and the production of refined zinc is limited. The demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to oscillate [51][52]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, lead futures increased. The supply of primary lead is increasing, and the supply of recycled lead is recovering slowly. High prices suppress demand. The price is supported by low inventory and cost, but the upward space is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious when going long [53][54]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, tin futures declined. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand has certain support. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, nickel futures declined. The macro - environment has improved, but the supply - demand situation is complex. The supply of high - grade nickel ore is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [55]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal futures increased, and soybean oil futures decreased. Sino - US trade relations are expected to improve, and the Brazilian soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately, while the demand for soybean oil is suppressed. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long - positions in soybean meal and wait and see for soybean oil [56][57]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, palm oil futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the market is expected to be weak. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds [60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures increased. The supply of eggs is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - positions and consider adding short - positions during rebounds [61][62]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, cotton futures oscillated. Sino - US trade relations are favorable in the long - term, but short - term international cotton prices are under pressure. Domestic cotton has a strong production expectation, and the demand is neutral - weak. The price is expected to have limited upward space [63][64]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, sugar futures rebounded. Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts price rebounds. The domestic supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and the price has certain support at the bottom [65][66][67]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, apple futures declined. The quality of this year's apples is poor, and the opening price is higher than last year. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [69][70][71]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day, live pig futures declined. The pig price is expected to be weak, and the supply is increasing. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds [72][73]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, egg futures increased. The supply of eggs is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - positions and consider adding short - positions during rebounds [74][75]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and starch futures increased. The price of corn is affected by the rise in soybean prices. The inventory situation is complex, and the demand is growing slightly. The price of corn is expected to be under pressure, and starch may follow the trend of corn [76][77].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple commodities including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and various futures. It provides market trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies for each commodity [5][9][11]. - Overall, it is expected that the bond futures market will have no significant trend and requires caution; the stock index futures market has a low risk of a sharp decline and presents opportunities to go long; the precious metals market is fully priced and suggests taking profits and waiting; and different futures markets have their own specific trends and investment strategies [7][9][11]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - The previous trading day saw most bond futures closing higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year contracts having different performance. The central bank conducted 3426 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 1301 billion yuan [5]. - With the current macro - data stable but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy still to be strengthened, the bond futures are expected to have no trend and require caution [7]. Stock Index - The previous trading day had mixed performance in stock index futures. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is low, the low valuation of domestic assets and sufficient economic resilience, along with improved market sentiment and reduced Sino - US economic and trade uncertainties, suggest a low risk of a sharp decline and opportunities to go long [9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day had the gold and silver contracts with different price movements. The complex global trade and financial environment, along with the slowdown of the US labor market and expected Fed rate cuts, are favorable for precious metals. However, due to the large increase and full pricing, it is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait [11]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. In the medium term, the rebar price is likely to remain weak due to the downward trend in the real estate industry and high inventory. The hot - rolled coil is expected to have a similar trend. Investors can look for opportunities to short at high levels during rebounds [13][14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day had the iron ore futures fluctuating. The current supply - demand pattern supports the price in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Technically, the short - term trend is strong, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day had coking coal and coke futures rising and then falling. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the demand for coke has a price increase under discussion. Technically, the short - term trend may be strong, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips [18][19]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day had different performance in manganese silicon and silicon iron contracts. The supply of ferroalloys is currently in excess, and the cost is rising. The short - term supply is expected to remain in excess, and investors can consider long positions at low levels when the price falls [21][22]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day had the INE crude oil rising and then falling. Although the Baker Hughes rig count increased, the growth of US crude oil production is still challenging. The sanctions on Russian oil companies are favorable for the price, and the market may focus on the OPEC meeting. Investors can look for opportunities to go long [23][24]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day had the fuel oil futures moving downward. The recovery of Singapore's fuel oil supply is negative for the price, while the sanctions on Russia and reduced Sino - US trade frictions are positive. Investors can look for opportunities to go long [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day had the synthetic rubber contract rising. The supply - side is expected to have more short - and medium - term maintenance, driving the market to stop falling and rebound. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to the raw material market and supply - side changes [29]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day had different performance in natural rubber contracts. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand has a slight increase. The inventory has decreased significantly. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long [31]. PVC - The previous trading day had the PVC contract rising. The current oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited. It is necessary to wait for the improvement of the fundamentals. Investors should pay attention to the supply - side changes [34]. Urea - The previous trading day had the urea contract falling. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to export policy changes and the seasonal recovery of agricultural demand. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the downward space is limited [37]. PX - The previous trading day had the PX contract falling. The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and the PXN spread is relatively strong. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors can participate in the range and pay attention to macro - policy changes [40]. PTA - The previous trading day had the PTA contract falling. The supply is adjusted, and the demand is relatively stable. The processing fee is slightly repaired. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to oil price changes [41][43]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day had the ethylene glycol contract falling. The supply is increasing, and the inventory may slightly accumulate. However, the demand is expected to improve, and it is expected to oscillate. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [44]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day had the short - fiber contract falling. The supply remains at a relatively high level, and the demand has improved. It is expected to oscillate following the cost, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [45]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day had the bottle chips contract falling. The processing fee has decreased, and the supply has increased slightly. The export growth has slowed down. It is expected to oscillate following the cost, and investors should control risks [46]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day had the lithium carbonate contract rising. The supply is at a high level, and the demand in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually decreasing, and investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [47]. Copper - The previous trading day had the Shanghai copper fluctuating downward. The unmet market expectations from the Sino - US negotiation and the uncertain Fed rate - cut progress affected the price. The Indonesian copper mine not resuming production supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. Tin - The previous trading day had the tin contract falling. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. It is expected to oscillate and be on the strong side [51]. Nickel - The previous trading day had the nickel contract falling. The macro - sentiment has improved, but the supply is still in an over - supply situation, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate [52][53]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day had both soybean oil and soybean meal contracts rising. The Sino - US trade friction improvement is favorable for US soybean exports. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately. It is recommended to consider long positions for soybean meal after adjustment and wait and see for soybean oil [54][55]. Palm Oil - The palm oil price rebounded slightly after four days of decline. The reduction of Indonesian inventory and the Sino - US trade negotiation results are factors. It is recommended to consider going long on dips [56][57]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures rose following the soybean futures. The Canadian rapeseed crushing volume increased. The import data of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal in China changed. It is recommended to consider going long on dips for rapeseed oil [58][60]. Cotton - The previous trading day had the domestic cotton futures oscillating. The Sino - US negotiation is expected to be good, but the domestic cotton has a strong expectation of a good harvest, and the price has limited upward space. It is expected to face pressure [61][63]. Sugar - The previous trading day had the sugar futures falling. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts the price rebound. The domestic sugar import and production data are provided. The price has certain support at the bottom [65][67]. Apples - The previous trading day had the apple futures oscillating at a high level. The quality problem is a concern, and the opening price of late - maturing apples is higher than last year. It is expected to be strong [69][70]. Pigs - The previous trading day had the pig futures falling. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the month, and it is recommended to consider shorting on rebounds [71][73]. Eggs - The previous trading day had the egg futures rising slightly. The supply is expected to increase in October, and the consumption may be lower than expected. It is recommended to hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [74][75]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day had both corn and corn starch futures falling. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and the price is under pressure. The corn starch demand has recovered slightly but is expected to follow the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [76][78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events, trade relations, and supply - demand dynamics. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has brought positive signals to the market, but various commodities still face different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][21][37]. - **Commodities**: Different commodities show diverse price trends. Some are under pressure due to supply surpluses, while others are supported by factors such as demand recovery or supply shortages. The report provides specific analysis and trading suggestions for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. Brent 12 - contract fell 0.28%. The mid - term supply - demand pressure on crude oil remains due to OPEC +'s continuous production increase, but the easing of the Sino - US trade war provides short - term support. There is still a downside risk [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil followed the crude oil's oscillating trend. High - sulfur fuel oil's support may be limited in the long - term, and the mid - term supply pattern is expected to be loose. Low - sulfur fuel oil is generally weak, but supply may contract due to refinery incidents. There are opportunities to go long on the high - low sulfur spread [22]. - **LPG**: The near - month LPG contract continued to be strong. The decrease in supply and increase in demand due to improved chemical profits and cold weather support the price [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals rebounded. The Fed's rate cut and Powell's hawkish remarks, along with the Sino - US tariff reduction, led to volatile market sentiment. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: After reaching a record high, copper prices pulled back. The long - position can be held above 86,500 [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. The short - term trend is slightly strong, but the upside space is limited [5]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory is at a low level, supporting the high - level operation of LME zinc. There is a short - term callback pressure on the external market. Zinc ingot exports are expected to increase, and it is not recommended to short - sell Shanghai zinc in the fourth quarter [8]. - **Lead**: High lead prices suppress downstream demand. However, LME lead is in the process of destocking, and there may be opportunities for cross - market positive arbitrage [9]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices are weak, with the center of gravity tending to move down due to over - supply in the industry [10]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to be short - sold, and the short - position can be held below 285,000 [11]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in surplus, and the price is weak with limited rebound space [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the price of aluminum and is difficult to have an independent market due to high inventory levels [6]. Chemicals - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has recovered from a low level, but the fundamental situation is still weak. Caustic soda continues to accumulate inventory, and the price is expected to be low [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Supply is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The anti - arbitrage strategy is recommended [31]. - **Methanol**: The near - term port inventory pressure is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly but may gradually stop falling [26]. - **Urea**: The supply exceeds demand, but demand and cost support the price. The short - term market is expected to operate at a low level [25]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the trade situation has improved. Domestic soybean arrivals are sufficient, and bean meal inventory has decreased slightly. Pay attention to policies on US soybean imports [37]. - **Corn**: The supply of new corn in the Northeast is increasing, and the price is under pressure. Pay attention to the import situation after the Sino - US trade improvement [41]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton also declined slightly. New cotton costs have increased, providing some support, but the market is still cautious due to weak demand [44]. - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output forecast. The output expectation in Guangxi is relatively good [45]. Others - **Shipping**: The current booking demand in November is weak, but the cargo volume is expected to recover in late November. Airlines may raise prices, and it is advisable to go long on the freight index of container shipping (European line) at low levels [21]. - **Equity Market**: A - shares fell with heavy volume, and futures indices also declined. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have positive effects on the medium - term market sentiment. Focus on the technology - growth sector [49]. - **Bond Market**: Treasury bond futures oscillated strongly. The bond market is entering a recovery phase, and the steepening of the yield curve is expected to end [50].