Group 1: Market Data and Trends - The weighted average interest rate of DR001 in the inter - bank market remained around 1.32%, indicating a stable and loose capital situation. The central bank's open - market operations last week included 474.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 242.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 231.9 billion yuan. Additionally, 450 billion yuan of MLF matured, and the central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of MLF operations. This week, 474.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [4][5]. - On Friday's close, the CSI 300 rose 0.56% to 4502.6, the SSE 50 rose 0.45% to 2837.3, the CSI 500 rose 1.25% to 7737.6, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.4% to 7746.3. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1.864 trillion yuan, a decrease of 93.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with energy metals, chemical pharmaceuticals, medical services, etc. leading the gains, while insurance and banking sectors led the losses [5]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Strategy - The current capital market trends are dominated by the Middle - East geopolitical situation. The risk of the Middle - East situation escalating over the weekend is still accumulating. The Houthi rebels have joined the US - Iran war and launched a new round of missile and drone attacks on multiple targets in southern Israel. The US is preparing for a ground operation in Iran. Short - term overseas geopolitical situations may continue to suppress the stock index trends [6]. - In the domestic market, recent capital market policies and the actions of Central Huijin have been relatively calm. However, after the significant market decline, the possibility of policy support has increased, and it is expected that the further downward space of the stock index is limited. The strategy is to focus on long - position layout opportunities after the alleviation of Middle - East geopolitical disturbances and pay attention to position control [6]. Group 3: Futures Market Data - The closing prices and changes of various futures products are as follows: DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a change of - 0.26bp, DR007 at 1.44 with a change of - 0.39bp, GC001 at 1.14 with a change of - 24.50bp, GC007 at 1.51 with a change of - 4.00bp, SHBOR 3M at 1.51 with a change of - 0.45bp, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.25 with a change of - 0.73bp, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.55 with a change of - 1.14bp, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.82 with a change of 0.02bp, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.44 with a change of 2.00bp [4]. - The trading volume and positions of stock index futures also showed certain changes. For example, the trading volume of IF increased by 5.2% to 90011, and the position increased by 1.9% to 258716; the trading volume of IH increased by 4.7% to 44352, and the position increased by 0.8% to 101939; the trading volume of IC increased by 13.9% to 156429, and the position increased by 2.8% to 287610; the trading volume of IM increased by 14.7% to 225995, and the position increased by 0.4% to 383089 [5]. - The premium and discount rates of different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided. For example, the premium rate of IF for the current - month contract is 9.12%, the next - month contract is 3.69%, the current - quarter contract is 7.43%, and the next - quarter contract is 7.46% [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is in a state of shock and consolidation. The ongoing stalemate in the US - Iran conflict, high - level oscillation of crude oil prices, and a decline in market risk appetite are putting pressure on precious metals. The core drivers of this adjustment are the downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the long run, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the de - dollarization process[6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For gold futures, the closing price of沪金 2606 was 998.66 with a daily increase of 2.68 (0.27%), and沪金 2604 was 995.180 with an increase of 2.220 (0.22%). For silver futures,沪银 2606 was 17489 with an increase of 17 (0.10%), and沪银 2604 was 17558 with an increase of 39 (0.22%)[2]. - **Position and Volume**: The position volume of沪金 2606 was 169083, and the trading volume was 316403; for沪金 2604, the position was 19915 and the trading volume was 62042. For沪银 2606, the position was 225682 and the trading volume was 873570; for沪银 2604, the position was 32692 and the trading volume was 40213[2]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premium and discount of沪金 2606 was - 6.21, and that of沪金 2604 was - 2.73. For沪银 2606, it was - 22, and for沪银 2604, it was - 91[2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 992.45 with an increase of 2.68 (0.27%), and the London gold price was 4493.36 with an increase of 111.45 (2.54%). The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 17467 with an increase of 175 (1.01%), and the London silver price was 69.73 with an increase of 1.64 (2.40%)[2]. - **Price Ratios**: The difference between沪金 2606 and沪金 2604 was 3.48 (pre - value: 3.02), and the difference between沪银 2606 and沪银 2604 was - 69.00 (pre - value: - 47.00). The gold - to - silver ratio (spot) was 56.82 (pre - value: 57.24), the ratio of Shanghai gold to London gold was 0.99 (pre - value: 1.00), and the ratio of Shanghai silver to London silver was 1.13 (pre - value: 1.13)[2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Domestic and Overseas Inventories**: The inventory of gold in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 106,644 kg (a decrease of 99 kg compared to the previous day), and the silver inventory was 371,799 kg (an increase of 1500 kg). The COMEX gold inventory was 31,713,528 troy ounces (a decrease of 192945 troy ounces), and the COMEX silver inventory was 328,297,364 troy ounces (a decrease of 250587 troy ounces)[2]. 3.4 Related Market Indicators - **Indices and Ratios**: The US dollar index was 100.18 (an increase of 0.28), the S&P 500 index was 6,368.85 (a decrease of 108.31), the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44% (an increase of 0.02%), the Brent crude oil price was 106.29 (an increase of 6.19), and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 6.9105 (an increase of 0.0064)[2]. 3.5 Derivatives - **ETF and Net Positions**: The SLV silver ETF position was 15,409.5 tons (unchanged). The CFTC speculator net position for gold was 168,327 (an increase of 8458), and for silver was 24,673 (an increase of 2792). The SPDR gold ETF position information is not provided for the current day[2]. 3.6 Macro News - **Military Deployment**: Hundreds of US special operations forces have arrived in the Middle East, along with thousands of Marines and Army paratroopers, to expand the military conflict with Iran[3]. - **Trump's Statements**: Trump wants to "seize Iran's oil resources" and may occupy Kharg Island. He is also considering a military operation to obtain about 1000 pounds of uranium from Iran, but has not issued a final order[4]. - **Iranian Reactions**: The Iranian Parliament Speaker warns that pre - market "news" may be a trap for profit - taking. The Iranian military says it will strike the residences of US and Israeli military and political personnel in response to recent attacks[5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Precious Metals Data Daily" [4] - Report date: March 30, 2026 [5] - Research center: Precious Metals and New Energy Research Center [5] - Analyst: Bai Suna [5] - Investment consulting number: Z0013700 [5] - Qualification number: F3023916 [5] Group 2: Price Tracking Spot and Futures Prices - On March 27, 2026, London gold spot was at $4459.39/ounce, London silver spot at $69.79/ounce, COMEX gold at $4454.20/ounce, COMEX silver at $69.90/ounce, AU2604 at 995.18 yuan/gram, AG2604 at 17558 yuan/kg, AU (T+D) at 995.06 yuan/gram, and AG (T+D) at 17475 yuan/kg [5] - Compared to March 26, 2026, the price changes were 0.0% for London gold spot, -0.3% for London silver spot, 0.0% for COMEX gold, -0.4% for COMEX silver, 0.2% for AU2604, 0.2% for AG2604, 0.3% for AU (T+D), and 0.1% for AG (T+D) [5] Price Spreads and Ratios - On March 27, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was -0.12 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was -83 yuan/kg, the gold TD - London spread was 3.77 yuan/gram, the silver TD - London spread was -50 yuan/kg, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 56.68, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 63.72, AU2604 - 2602 was 3.48 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was -69 yuan/kg [5] - Compared to March 26, 2026, the price spread changes were -73.9% for gold TD - SHFE active spread, 38.3% for silver TD - SHFE active spread, 29.5% for gold TD - London spread, -47.5% for silver TD - London spread, 0.0% for SHFE gold - silver ratio, 0.4% for COMEX gold - silver ratio, 15.2% for AU2604 - 2602, and 46.8% for AG2604 - 2602 [5] Group 3: Position Data - On March 27, 2026, the silver ETF - SLV was at 15409.46251 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 220861 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 52534 contracts, non - commercial net long positions were 168327 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 33938 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 9265 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 24673 contracts [5] - Compared to March 26, 2026, the position changes were 0.00% for silver ETF - SLV, 2.27% for COMEX gold non - commercial long positions, -6.34% for non - commercial short positions, 5.29% for non - commercial net long positions, 9.04% for COMEX silver non - commercial long positions, 0.23% for non - commercial short positions, and 12.76% for non - commercial net long positions [5] Group 4: Inventory Data - On March 27, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 106644 kg, SHFE silver inventory was 371799 kg, COMEX gold inventory was 31713528 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 328297364 troy ounces [5] - Compared to March 26, 2026, the inventory changes were -0.09% for SHFE gold inventory, 0.41% for SHFE silver inventory, -0.60% for COMEX gold inventory, and -0.08% for COMEX silver inventory [5] Group 5: Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - On March 27, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan middle - rate was 6.91, the US dollar index was 100.17, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44%, the VIX was 31.05, the S&P 500 was 6368.85, and NYMEX crude oil was $101.18 [5] - Compared to March 26, 2026, the changes were 0.12% for the US dollar/Chinese yuan middle - rate, 0.26% for the US dollar index, -2.02% for the 2 - year US Treasury yield, 0.45% for the 10 - year US Treasury yield, 13.16% for the VIX, -1.67% for the S&P 500, and 7.88% for NYMEX crude oil [5] Group 6: Market Analysis Market Review - On March 27, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.99% to 998.66 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 2.03% to 17489 yuan/kg [5] Impact Analysis - Although the US - Iran conflict continued to escalate, crude oil prices continued to strengthen, and the US dollar index remained high, the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in August dropped to 53.3, highlighting consumers' concerns about geopolitical conflicts. The US stock market tumbled, and the market trading logic gradually shifted from inflation to stagflation. The US Treasury yields fell from high levels, boosting precious metal prices to rise in the same direction as crude oil [6] Future Market Analysis - Over the weekend, the Middle East geopolitical situation continued to escalate, and the risk of the US intervening in a ground war was increasing. Precious metal prices may still fluctuate in the short term. However, if the trading logic shifts to precious metals, it will support precious metal prices. In summary, in the short term, precious metal prices are expected to gradually bottom out through oscillations, and the medium - and long - term supporting factors (geopolitical uncertainty, the US huge debt, de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases, etc.) still exist. In the future, as factors such as geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metal market is expected to emerge from the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. It is recommended that investors appropriately seize this long - term layout opportunity during the deep adjustment [6]

Report Summary - **Report Date**: March 30, 2026 - **Research Institute**: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekend market was dominated by geopolitical conflicts and policy games. Energy and precious metals fluctuated violently. The escalation of the Middle East situation pushed up the risk premium of crude oil, and the price of domestic refined gold jewelry approached 1,400 yuan/gram. Macro - policies showed differentiation: overseas, the Fed's dot - plot implied only one interest - rate cut in 2026, which suppressed risk assets; domestically, the central bank maintained reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to February increased by 15.2% year - on - year, showing the resilience of the industrial fundamentals [1]. - In 2026 Q1, the global capital market was characterized by global differentiation, technology re - evaluation, and policy disturbances. In Q2, as the earnings reports are released, the market logic will shift from "speculating on expectations" to "looking at performance realization" [4][11]. 3. Summary of Each Section Key Varieties - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session rose 2.67%. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran shows no sign of stopping. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal and put forward strict conditions. The US Department of Defense is formulating military options against Iran [2][14]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in shock consolidation. The current adjustment is driven by the downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the long - term, the price center will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the de - dollarization process [3][20]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fell. The previous trading day, the stock index opened low and closed high. In Q2, the market logic will change, and high - valuation growth stocks face pressure, while low - valuation, high - dividend, and cash - flow - stable assets have stronger defensive properties [4][11]. Daily News Focus - **International News**: US President Trump claimed to control the Strait of Hormuz, and Vice - President Vance said the US would withdraw from Iran after completing its goals and that the rise in oil prices was a short - term reaction [6]. - **Domestic News**: On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the Boao Forum for Asia, Hainan Free Trade Port made its first global appearance after the whole - island customs closure [7]. - **Industry News**: From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with significant growth in the non - ferrous, chemical, and semiconductor industries [8][9]. Overseas Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 fell 1.67%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.79%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.70%, the US dollar index rose 0.26%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 8.14%, and precious metals such as London gold and silver also rose [10]. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: The stock index has the same situation as mentioned before. Treasury bonds have mixed performance. The central bank's operations keep the capital market relatively stable, but long - term treasury bond futures prices may face pressure due to factors such as the Middle East situation and inflation expectations [11][12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical**: Methanol night - session rose 4.29%, with an increase in the operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants and a decrease in coastal inventories. Rubber is in the low - production season, with new supply pressure expected, but the price is supported by the strong synthetic rubber. Polyolefins rebounded, and attention should be paid to the conflict situation and device operation. Glass and soda ash futures are weak, with high inventories and supply - demand imbalances [15][16][17][19]. - **Metals**: Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, downstream demand, and the US dollar. Aluminum prices may rise due to supply risks caused by the Middle East conflict [21][22][23]. - **Black Metals**: The double - coking market was weak on Friday night, but the decline is expected to be limited due to the recovery of rigid demand and the impact of the geopolitical conflict on the coal market [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal is affected by the Brazilian soybean harvest and the expected increase in US soybean exports. Oils are expected to be in high - level shock due to bio - fuel policies and oil price risks. The pig price is expected to remain low due to oversupply and weak demand. Sugar is affected by the Middle East situation and ethanol prices. Cotton is expected to be in shock in the short - term and supply may be tight in the long - term [26][27][28][29][30]. - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping European route fell on Friday. The price is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short - term [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices showed a high - level volatile trend. Tensions in the Middle East at the beginning of the week affected energy markets, causing precious metal prices to drop sharply on Monday. Trump's delay in attacking Iran led to a fall in oil prices, a decrease in inflation concerns, a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in market risk appetite, which boosted precious metal prices. Due to the frequent switching of geopolitical signals, market sentiment was cautious [2][5]. - The US submitted a 15 - point proposal to end the war to Iran via Pakistan. Iran rejected the proposal and put forward clear pre - conditions. Trump postponed the strike on Iran's energy facilities by ten days, with the deadline extended to April 6. The Pentagon is planning a "weeks - long ground operation", and the USS Tripoli and 3,500 soldiers have arrived in the Middle East. Iran is ready to respond and has organized over a million people for ground combat. The ongoing US - Iran conflict has strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate hikes by the US and European central banks [2][6]. - The current US - Iran negotiation is at a deadlock. Geopolitical signals are switching frequently, and the negotiation is likely to be a long - drawn - out process, which will keep oil prices high. Precious metals are still suppressed by the expectation of monetary policy tightening due to rising inflation, and the adjustment is not over. The large - scale sale of gold reserves by the Turkish central bank to stabilize the exchange rate also puts pressure on gold prices. It is expected that precious metal prices will show a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation [2][7][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate/% | Total Trading Volume/Hand | Total Open Interest/Hand | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 998.66 | - 40.56 | - 3.90 | 169083 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 992.45 | - 48.15 | - 4.63 | 81692 | 239470 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 4521.30 | 29.30 | 0.65 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 17489 | - 2491 | - 12.47 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 17467 | - 313 | - 1.76 | 293094 | 2849646 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 69.77 | 1.96 | 2.89 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 493.05 | - 16.70 | - 3.28 | 5790 | 7356 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 477.04 | - 31.84 | - 6.26 | | | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 1866.40 | - 31.84 | - 2.80 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 358.20 | - 31.84 | - 2.89 | 2838 | 7356 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 1384.50 | - 31.84 | - 2.12 | | | US dollars/ounce | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The precious metal market was affected by the Middle East situation last week. Tensions at the beginning of the week led to a price drop, and Trump's delay in the attack on Iran led to a price rebound. The market is cautious due to the frequent switching of geopolitical signals [2][5]. - The US - Iran conflict continues, and the market's expectation of interest rate hikes by the US and European central banks is strengthening. The Fed's policy is considered to be dragging down the economy, and the inflation forecast has been raised. The European Central Bank will take action if necessary [6]. - The US - Iran negotiation is in a deadlock, and it is expected to be a long - term process, keeping oil prices high. Precious metals are under pressure from inflation - driven monetary policy tightening expectations, and the Turkish central bank's gold sales also put pressure on prices. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to be weak and volatile [7][8]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The US March composite PMI unexpectedly dropped to 51.4, with manufacturing expansion accelerating and service - sector growth slowing [9]. - The eurozone March composite PMI fell to a 10 - month low, and France's PMI contracted for three consecutive months, sounding a stagflation alarm [9]. - Wall Street institutions have significantly raised the probability of a US economic recession due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, soaring oil prices, and structural weakness in the labor market. Moody's model shows a 48.6% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, and Goldman Sachs has raised the forecast to 30% [9]. - The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and rise slightly to 3% in 2027. The US economic growth rate is expected to slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the US inflation rate will reach 4.2% this year, much higher than the Fed's expectation [9]. - The US February import prices rose 1.3% month - on - month, the largest single - month increase since March 2022, mainly driven by higher oil and natural gas prices. Export prices rose 1.5% month - on - month, the largest single - month increase since May 2022 [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 5,000 to 210,000, in line with market expectations. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 32,000 to 1,819,000, the lowest level in nearly two years [10]. - The Turkish central bank's gold reserves decreased by 6 tons in the week of March 13 and 52.4 tons in the week of March 20. Bloomberg reported that the Turkish central bank may continue to sell gold to prevent the lira from depreciating further [10]. - Gold ETFs have seen an outflow of about 43 tons in the past two weeks [10]. 3.4 Relevant Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, inventory changes of COMEX and LBMA gold and silver, non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver, and the relationship between gold prices and various factors such as the US dollar, copper prices, inflation expectations, and VIX index [11][12][14][15][16][17][18][20][21][23][24][25][27][28][30][31][32][34][35][36][38][39][41][42][45][47][49][50][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints 2.1沪镍 - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated with an upward bias, mainly influenced by Indonesian policies and some positive news on the cost side. Supply: In March, production scheduling increased, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices were firm, the Indonesian RKAB policy continued to ferment, and Indonesia's bargaining power for nickel ore continued to rise. Nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories increased slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. Overall, it is bearish [3]. - The basis of spot nickel is 1900, which is bullish [3]. - LME nickel inventory is 281574 (-666), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 57069 (-524), which is bearish [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is neutral [3]. - The net long position of the main contract increased, which is bullish [3]. - Conclusion: The Shanghai nickel 2605 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 2.2 Stainless Steel - The spot stainless steel price remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices were firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line had strong support. Stainless steel inventories increased slightly, and demand was weak. Overall, it is neutral [5]. - The basis of stainless steel is 672.5, which is bullish [5]. - The futures warehouse receipt is 45676 (unchanged), which is neutral [5]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5]. - Conclusion: The stainless steel 2605 contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Nickel, Stainless Steel Price Overview | Type | 3 - 27 | 3 - 26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai nickel main contract | 137100 | 135860 | +1240 | | LME nickel | 17215 | 17165 | +50 | | Stainless steel main contract | 14390 | 14390 | 0 | | SMM1 electrolytic nickel (spot) | 139000 | 139350 | -350 | | 1 Jinchuan nickel (spot) | 141550 | 142050 | -500 | | 1 imported nickel (spot) | 136450 | 136450 | 0 | | Nickel beans (spot) | 139100 | 139100 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Wuxi, spot) | 15100 | 15100 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Foshan, spot) | 14900 | 14900 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Hangzhou, spot) | 15100 | 15100 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Shanghai, spot) | 15150 | 15150 | 0 | [10] 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 64479 tons, of which the futures inventory was 57069 tons, an increase of 818 tons and 379 tons respectively [12]. | Type | 3 - 27 | 3 - 26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME nickel inventory | 281574 | 282240 | -666 | | Nickel warehouse receipts | 57069 | 57593 | -524 | | Total inventory | 338643 | 339833 | -1190 | [13] 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 27, the Wuxi inventory was 601200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 390900 tons, and the national inventory was 1157500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30100 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 696700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3000 tons [17]. - The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt on March 27 was 45676 tons, unchanged from the previous day [18]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices | Nickel Ore | Grade | 3 - 27 | 3 - 26 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Laterite nickel ore CIF | Ni1.5% | 79.5 | 79.5 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Laterite nickel ore CIF | Ni0.9% | 35 | 35 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Freight from Philippines to Lianyungang | | 14.5 | 14.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | Freight from Philippines to Tianjin Port | | 16 | 16 | 0 | USD/ton | | High - nickel wet ton | 8 - 12 | 1085.73 | 1085.52 | +0.21 | CNY/nickel point | | Low - nickel wet ton | <2 | 3650 | 3650 | 0 | CNY/ton | [22] 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Costs | Traditional Cost | Scrap Steel Production Cost | Low - Nickel + Pure Nickel Cost | | --- | --- | --- | | 14205 | 14085 | 17964 | [24] 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price is 134894 CNY/ton [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month-on-month. Subsequently, it enters the production reduction season, and the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,800, and the basis is 112. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On March 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The long position of the main soybean oil contract increased. It is bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same as that of soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. It is neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,700, and the basis is -68. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - **Inventory**: On March 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same as that of soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. It is neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,340, and the basis is 453. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On March 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **Bearish**: The edible oil prices are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic edible oil inventory continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: March 30, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined, but the overall daily output remains at a high level in recent years, with sufficient supply [4] - Industrial demand has recovered, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have significantly increased. Agricultural demand has shown differentiation, with the spring plowing fertilizer demand in the northern region entering the final stage and the topdressing demand in the southern rice - growing areas starting. The comprehensive inventory is being depleted [4] - The overseas price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, and the price gap between domestic and international exports has widened. However, the relevant authorities have required enterprises to prioritize domestic spring plowing needs, so the impact of international prices is limited [4] - The UR2605 contract basis is - 17, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.9%, which is bearish. The UR comprehensive inventory is 870,000 tons (- 106,000), which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today, with high daily production year - on - year, recovering demand, depleting inventory, a large international supply gap, and domestic supply guarantee policies restricting exports [4] Group 4: Urea Overview Summary Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Current daily production and operating rate have a slight decline, but the overall daily output is at a high level in recent years, with sufficient supply [4] - Demand: Industrial demand has recovered, and agricultural demand is differentiated. The comprehensive inventory is being depleted. The overseas price is strong, but domestic supply is prioritized [4] Other Indicators - Basis: UR2605 contract basis is - 17, premium - discount ratio - 0.9%, bearish [4] - Inventory: UR comprehensive inventory is 870,000 tons (- 106,000), bullish [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, bullish [4] - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [4] Expectations - The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today, considering factors such as high daily production, recovering demand, inventory depletion, large international gap, and domestic supply - guarantee export restrictions [4] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | End - of - Period Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] Group 6: Market Data Spot Market - Spot delivery product price is 1860, unchanged; Shandong spot price is 1900, up 10; Henan spot price is 1860, unchanged; FOB China price is 4925 [6] Futures Market - The 05 contract price is 1877, up 2; the basis is - 17, down 2; UR01 price is 1921, up 1; UR05 price is 1877, up 2; UR09 price is 1928, down 11 [6] Inventory - Warehouse receipts are 8707, down 317; UR comprehensive inventory is 870,000 tons, down 106,000; UR factory inventory is 701,000 tons, down 108,000; UR port inventory is 169,000 tons [6] Group 7: Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - Good demand - Overseas prices continue to strengthen [5] Bearish Factors - Daily production is at a high level in history [5] Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, and investors are advised to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to short on rebounds [1][9][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is advised to hold short positions moderately at high prices; aluminum is recommended to strengthen observation; nickel is suggested to wait and see; tin is for range trading; gold and silver are expected to trade sideways; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][14][17][19][20][22][23][25] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish with sideways movement; rubber is recommended to be long on dips without chasing highs; urea and methanol are for range trading; soda ash is advised to short at high prices [1][26][28][29][31][32][34][35][37] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish with sideways movement; apples and red dates are expected to trade sideways [1][39][40][41] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, contracts 05 and 07 have limited rebound, and short - selling at high levels is recommended; for eggs, be cautious about chasing up near - month contracts; corn is expected to trade in a short - term range; soybean meal contract 05 should focus on the support performance at 2900 - 2950; for oils and fats, reduce long positions gradually [1][43][45][46][47][48] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the Iran - US conflict, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets, causing price fluctuations in various assets [5][15][17][22][23] - Different industries and commodities have different supply - demand relationships and price trends. For example, some commodities are affected by supply disruptions, while others are influenced by changes in demand or cost factors [9][15][25][34] - Investors should pay attention to various factors such as geopolitical events, macroeconomic data, and industry - specific policies when making investment decisions [27][35][46] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by the Iran - US situation, it may trade sideways in the short term but is bullish in the medium to long term. Investors are advised to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - end has limited downward movement, and the long - end spread has room for repair. Overall, it is expected to trade sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is rising, and inventory is accumulating. It is suitable for short - term trading [9] - **Rebar**: The price is at a low static valuation, and the demand is recovering. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term [10] - **Glass**: The cost hype has weakened, and the demand is not good. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by macro factors, it is under pressure at high levels. Although there is support from domestic consumption, it still has downward risks. Short positions can be held moderately at high prices [14][15][16] - **Aluminum**: The price is affected by the situation in the Middle East. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before entering the market to buy [17] - **Nickel**: The supply and demand are complex, and the price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. It is suggested to wait and see [19] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the consumption is in a recovery stage. It is recommended to trade in a range [20][21] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the Middle East situation and economic data, they are expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to wait and see [22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is expected to trade in a range [25] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but there is support from exports. It is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [26][27] - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by export and downstream replenishment, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Be cautious about chasing up [28] - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and exports, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Long on dips without chasing highs [29][30] - **Polyolefins**: Supported by cost and improving supply - demand, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [31] - **Rubber**: Affected by cost and inventory, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Long on dips without chasing highs [32] - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the demand is supported by agriculture. It is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [34] - **Methanol**: The supply and demand are in a complex situation, and it is expected to be bullish with range trading [35][36] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure. Short at high prices [37] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is strong. It is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [39] - **Apples**: The market is in a two - level differentiation state, and the price is expected to trade sideways [40] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition price is stable, and the market is expected to trade sideways [41] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the supply exceeds demand, and the price is in a bottom - building stage. Contracts 05 and 07 have limited rebound, and short - selling at high levels is recommended [43][44] - **Eggs**: The price is rising steadily, but be cautious about chasing up near - month contracts [45] - **Corn**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state, and it is expected to trade in a short - term range [46] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by multiple factors, contract 05 should focus on the support performance at 2900 - 2950 [47] - **Oils and Fats**: The price is at a high level and is expected to trade sideways. Reduce long positions gradually [48][49][50][51][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In Q1 2026, the Middle East geopolitical crisis that broke out at the end of February was a black - swan event, causing a severe impact on the global macro - economy. It led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a sharp rise in oil prices, and significant imported inflation pressure in developed economies. Central banks were forced to re - evaluate their monetary policies, leading to tightened global liquidity, which in turn inhibited corporate investment and household consumption, and dragged down global trade and supply chains. Developed economies faced a significant risk of slowdown, and global economic activities were under pressure [1][7][66]. - In Q1 2026, China's domestic macro - economic indicators showed resilience. Exports had strong resilience, while consumption and investment growth were slow. The manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line, inflation recovered moderately but remained weak overall. Social financing data was strong due to policy efforts in Q1, but there was a structural differentiation in new credit between enterprises and residents. The central bank's monetary policy was more inclined to structural easing, and the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term was low, but the general tone of moderate easing remained, and there was still a possibility of an interest rate cut in the future [2][27][67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 International Macro 3.1.1 United States - Since 2026, the inflation expectation index in the US has weakened, and the consumer confidence index has declined to a relatively low historical quantile level in the past three years. The ISM manufacturing and service PMI have been in an expansion state, but after the US - Iran war, the inflation upward pressure has emerged. In February, the CPI and core CPI data showed a slow - down in price increases, but the recent rise in oil prices may increase the cost of living for US residents. The market has started to unwind long positions in US Treasury futures and is pricing in the possibility of the Fed's emergency interest rate hike. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate hike at the April 29 policy meeting is still low, but there are uncertainties due to the geopolitical situation and the change of the Fed's leadership [8][11][14]. 3.1.2 Europe - On March 19, the European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate at 2%. Due to the Middle East conflict, the policy stance has become more hawkish. The Middle East conflict has increased the uncertainty of the euro - area economic outlook, posing an upward risk to inflation and a downward pressure on economic growth. The ECB will take action if inflation worsens, and may adjust the policy stance as early as the April meeting [21][23]. 3.1.3 Japan - On March 19, the Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.75%. One member proposed an interest rate hike, and the central bank listed the Middle East conflict and oil price fluctuations as risks. Japan's economy is moderately recovering, but the inflation expectation has risen moderately. The central bank emphasized the potential impact of external risks on the inflation outlook and warned of the instability in the financial market and the sharp rise in oil prices [24]. 3.2 Domestic Macro 3.2.1 Business Index - In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening of manufacturing prosperity. The production and new order indexes declined, and the employment index was weak. Large enterprises' PMI was in an expansion state, while medium - and small - sized enterprises' PMI declined. The problem of insufficient effective demand still exists, and policy support is needed [28][31]. 3.2.2 Price Index - In February, China's CPI rose to 1.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.8%. The PPI was - 0.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The increase in CPI was due to the Spring Festival effect, and the narrowing decline in PPI was driven by international commodity prices and semiconductor storage demand. After the Spring Festival, the CPI may weaken seasonally, and the PPI may turn positive due to the rise in oil prices [36]. 3.2.3 Social Financing and Credit - In the first two months of 2026, the cumulative increment of social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan, showing a moderate increase. The "enterprise - strong, household - weak" structural differentiation in new credit still exists. Enterprise loans increased significantly, especially long - term loans, while household loans decreased. The social financing and credit data are expected to continue to improve with the acceleration of enterprise production and the implementation of policies, but the performance of household credit needs attention [41][42]. 3.2.4 Three - Horse Carriage - From January to February, exports showed strong resilience, with a 19.2% growth. Exports to Belt and Road countries, private enterprises' exports, and exports of mechanical and electrical products all increased significantly. Consumption and investment growth were slow. The growth rate of social consumer goods retail was 2.8%, and the growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.8%. Infrastructure investment provided strong support, while real estate development investment was a major drag. Boosting domestic demand and consumption is the policy focus this year [55][57]. 3.2.5 Monetary Policy - On March 20, the central bank announced that the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively. This is in line with market expectations. The central bank is more inclined to structural policies, and the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low, but there is still a possibility of an interest rate cut in the future [61].