Group 1: Oil and Asphalt Industry - The production of asphalt in November decreased, with a utilization rate of 24.8%, down 4.2% month-on-month, while inventory remains at historically low levels. However, demand is expected to weaken due to falling temperatures in the northern regions and limited project increments in the south, leading to a generally weak market outlook [5]. - PX production remains high at 86.8% as of November 14, but with several PTA facilities undergoing maintenance, supply is expected to decline. The PX market may face continuous inventory accumulation in November and December, although long-term supply-demand expectations for next year appear positive [5]. - PTA production is at 72.1% as of November 20, with maintenance extending longer than anticipated. The cancellation of PTA export restrictions by India has improved market conditions, leading to a stronger basis and a recovery in processing margins above 200 CNY/ton [5]. Group 2: Short Fiber and Polyester Industry - Short fiber production remains stable at 97.5%, with inventory increasing slightly to 8.7 days. Demand is moderate, with factories maintaining steady sales, while weaving and texturing operations have slightly decreased [6]. - Bottle chip production is at 81.6% with a decrease in inventory to 16.06 days. Despite low processing margins around 429 CNY/ton, high social inventory and weak demand hinder price improvements [6]. - Pure benzene production is slightly down but remains high, with downstream profits generally in the red, leading to potential production cuts in downstream products. Overall demand is weak, resulting in continued inventory accumulation and a bearish market outlook [6]. Group 3: Cotton and Yarn Market - The increase in new cotton production may not meet expectations, and with low commercial inventory, cotton prices are supported. However, as prices rise, hedging pressures will increase, and recent transactions in the pure cotton yarn market have been weak, with downstream demand primarily driven by necessity [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term adjustment of the stock - bond market is expected, but the medium - term trend remains optimistic, and the high - tech industry continues to grow. The interest rate of treasury bonds is consolidating, and the market trend rebounds slightly [3]. - The coal - coke market is adjusting at a high level due to concerns about supply resumption. The supply and demand of finished products are expected to remain stable, and the impact of December's macro - policies on winter storage should be noted [4]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut is less than 40%, and the long - term support for gold prices comes from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [5]. - Log prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom due to weak spot prices, increased supply, and weak demand [6]. - Natural rubber prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term due to strong cost support and weak demand [7]. - Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to sufficient domestic supply and weak demand [8]. - Oil prices rise due to the increased probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut. PX, PTA, and MC show different supply - demand and price trends [9]. - Hog prices may remain volatile as sufficient supply is offset by increased consumption [10]. Summary by Related Categories Stock - Bond Market - The short - term adjustment of the stock - bond market is expected, with the medium - term trend remaining optimistic. The high - tech industry continues to grow. Treasury bond interest rates are consolidating, and the market rebounds slightly [3] Black Industry - Affected by import news and supply - guarantee meetings, the coal - coke market adjusts at a high level. The supply and demand of finished products are expected to be stable, and the impact of December's macro - policies on winter storage should be noted [4] Gold Market - The market's expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut is less than 40%. The long - term support for gold prices comes from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [5] Log Market - Spot log prices are weak, supply is under pressure, demand is hard to sustain, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] Rubber Market - Due to rainfall in the main production areas, cost support is strong. Demand is weak, and prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [7] Soybean and Soybean Meal Market - US soybean export is weak, domestic supply is sufficient, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8] Oil and Chemical Market - Oil prices rise due to the increased probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut. PX, PTA, and MC show different supply - demand and price trends [9] Hog Market - Hog supply is sufficient, consumption may increase, and prices may remain volatile [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Neutral (not explicitly stated in a clear rating system but based on the context of market analysis) [6] - Methanol: Consider buying the 5 - 9 month spread, but with caution [6] - Pure Benzene: Bearish bias, consider option configuration [3] - Styrene: Price supported but limited upside [3] - Polypropylene: Slight bearish due to supply increase and weak demand [2] - Plastic: Bearish due to increased supply and weak demand [2] - PVC: Follow cost - end changes, supply high and demand weak [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak operation, follow profit changes [7] - PX: Strong before new capacity, short - term supply - demand weakening [5] - PTA: Cost - driven, reduced inventory build - up expectation [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term rebound expected but limited space [5] - Short Fiber: Price follows raw materials, no new investment pressure [5] - Bottle Chips: Cost - driven, long - term over - capacity pressure [5] - Soda Ash: Bullish short - term, oversupply long - term [8] - Glass: Limited downside, consider long - glass short - soda strategy [8] Core Views - The overall chemical market is complex, with different products showing various trends based on supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment factors. Some products have short - term bullish or bearish trends, while others face long - term challenges such as over - capacity [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Two - olefin futures contracts are fluctuating around the 5 - day moving average. Plastic and polypropylene futures are weak due to increased supply and weak demand. Polyethylene supply pressure increases with reduced maintenance and more shipments, and demand from downstream industries is weak. Polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures are weak, and the rebound is bearish. Consider option configuration. Styrene price is supported by tight supply - demand balance but has limited upside due to uncertain cost and demand support [3] Polyester - PX is strong before new capacity but short - term supply - demand is weakening. PTA is cost - driven with reduced inventory build - up expectation. Ethylene glycol has a short - term rebound expectation but limited space. Short fiber price follows raw materials, and bottle chips are cost - driven with long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol can consider buying the 5 - 9 month spread due to overseas production cuts and low valuation, but be cautious of weak reality. Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC has good export to India but weak domestic demand, and it may follow cost - end changes. Caustic soda is in a weak operation due to high supply and low demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is de - stocking and bullish short - term but oversupplied long - term. Glass has limited downside and can consider the long - glass short - soda strategy [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【聚酯周报】 PX供给持续紧张，聚酯震荡偏强 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 聚酯：PX供应紧张，盘面领先于实货 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 汽油裂解利润创下两年多新高的背景下，炼油厂持续优先将重整油用于汽油调和，而非芳烃生产，进一步加剧了PX原料供应的紧张局面。市场普遍预期， | | | | PX供需偏紧的格局将延续至2026年，PX价格走势偏强，显著利好PTA市场。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 当前PTA供应端略有收紧，而聚酯行业开工率保持稳定，整体负荷维持在90%以上。受益于部分海外国家贸易政策的积极调整，聚酯产品出口询盘明显增 | | | | 加，国内聚酯出口前景依然乐观。 | | 库存 | 中性 | PTA的港口 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/11/24 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/11/20 2025/11/21 | | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 455. 5 | 447. 4 | -8. 10 | 成交情况: PTA:原油下跌,且PX行情下跌,成本支撑减弱,利空 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1385.8 | 1414. 7 | 28. 86 | PTA行情。PTA去库存,基差走强。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4187 | 1. 4351 | 0. 0165 | | | | CFR中国PX | 833 | 824 | -9 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 260 | 262 | 2 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4696 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the reports [1][3][5][6][7][9][11][12] 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - Natural rubber market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. If raw material supply is smooth, rubber prices are expected to weaken; if supply is disrupted, prices may range from 15,000 - 15,500 [1] Ester Industry - PX is expected to be range - bound at high levels in the short term, with a tight supply - demand outlook in the medium term. PTA's TA01 may oscillate between 4,500 - 4,800 in the short term. Ethylene glycol is expected to be range - bound at low levels. Short - fiber prices have limited upward drivers, and bottle - chip prices will follow the cost trend [3] Polyolefin Industry - The 01 contracts of LLDPE and PP are under pressure due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [5] Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash has a bearish supply - demand outlook, and short - selling opportunities are recommended after price rebounds. Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy is suggested [6] Crude Oil Industry - The crude oil supply - demand pattern remains weak. Short - term support for Brent crude is at $60 per barrel, and geopolitical developments in Russia and Ukraine should be monitored [7] Methanol Industry - The methanol market is under pressure due to high inventories. The current trading logic is "weak reality", and the inventory issue in the 01 contract remains unresolved [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene is expected to have limited rebound space in the short term, and short - selling opportunities are recommended for BZ2603. Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and changes in its production facilities and export volume should be monitored [11] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. PVC is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to continue to decline at the bottom [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Most rubber spot prices declined on November 21, with the basis of whole milk rubber dropping by 22.50% [1] - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 14.29%, while the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads increased [1] - **Fundamental Data**: Thailand's and Vietnam's rubber production decreased in September, while India's and China's increased. Tire production and export volume decreased in October [1] - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area and futures warehouse inventories increased, while the outbound rate of dry rubber in Qingdao decreased [1] Ester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil and naphtha prices declined, while ethylene prices remained stable [3] - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX prices decreased by 1.1% [3] - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA spot and futures prices declined, and the basis was repaired [3] - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: MEG prices declined, and the basis decreased [3] - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Most polyester product prices and cash flows declined [3] Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 prices declined, and spreads changed [5] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Most polyolefin spot prices declined, and the basis of some products increased [5] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, and some operating rates changed [5] Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in some regions declined, and the 01 basis decreased [6] - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda ash prices were stable, and the 01 basis decreased [6] - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash production and some inventory decreased [6] - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas all declined [6] Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices declined, and spreads changed [7] - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Most refined oil prices and spreads declined [7] - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Most refined oil crack spreads declined [7] Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices declined, and the basis increased [9] - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased [9] - **Operating Rates**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Pure benzene prices declined, and the basis increased [11] - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices declined, and the basis increased [11] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased, and styrene port inventory decreased. Some operating rates changed [11] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda futures prices declined, and spreads changed [12] - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda and PVC supply and demand have certain pressures, and demand is weak [12] - **Inventory**: Some caustic soda and PVC inventories increased or decreased [12]

Group 1: Economic Overview and Federal Reserve Insights - The U.S. September non-farm payroll data presents a mixed picture, with 119,000 jobs added, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% [3][12] - Average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-on-month in September, a significant slowdown from 0.4% in August, indicating potential wage pressures [3][12] - The Federal Reserve's internal views are divided, and the market's expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated significantly, influenced by recent economic data [3][11] Group 2: Oil and Gas Industry Outlook - The oil and gas extraction sector is expected to see supply slow down, with Brent crude oil prices projected to range between $55 and $70 per barrel in 2026 [3][13] - OPEC+ is expected to slow its production increase, while non-OPEC supply growth is anticipated to decline significantly, particularly in shale oil production [3][13] - Global GDP growth is forecasted at approximately 3.1% in 2026, with a corresponding slowdown in oil demand growth [3][13] Group 3: Petrochemical Sector Analysis - The refining sector is anticipated to recover due to a contraction in global supply and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies in China, which may enhance the competitiveness of leading companies [3][21] - The polyester sector is expected to see a tightening supply-demand balance, with significant recovery potential, particularly for high-quality companies in the polyester filament and bottle-grade sectors [3][21] - Investment recommendations include focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, as well as high-dividend oil companies like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [3][21]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 钱嘉寅（联系人）期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 2 02 短纤（PF） 03 估值与利润 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 瓶片：震荡偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 观点小结 上游观点汇总 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 01 CONTENTS 基本面运行情况 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：下游补库节点临近，短期震荡，中期偏弱 供应 开工开工新高，平均开工97.5%，纺纱用直纺涤短开工99.5%。4季度开工预计在95%上下震荡。 需求 终端新订单环比小幅走弱，织造开工见顶下滑，但转弱的速度和幅度低于去年，月底附近终端补库窗口临近。月底补库结束后年内需求利好出 尽。终端短期抢出口空间不足，出口窗口期要至12月后。印度对多种聚酯产品B ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a weekly analysis of the polyester industry, covering PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products. It includes supply, demand, valuation, and inventory information, as well as trading strategies [3][4][5] Group 2: PX Analysis Valuation - Domestic PX drives up the overseas market, and the PXN spread has strengthened significantly. The gasoline market has ended the squeeze and started to build inventories. The disproportionation unit is in a loss, and the PX - MX spread remains high [15][22][23] Supply - The domestic PX operating rate is at a historical high, with an operating rate of 89.5% (+2.7%) this week. The Asian PX operating rate is 79.7% (+1.2%). Some Korean and Japanese devices have maintenance or production reduction plans [42][43] Demand - The PTA operating rate has continued to decline to 72% (-3.7%), reducing the demand for PX [3][4] Inventory - In October, the monthly inventory of PX accumulated by 100,000 tons to 4.02 million tons [65] Strategy - The upside space is limited. For cross - varieties, short PXN and long MEG short PX [3] Group 3: PTA Analysis Valuation - The inventory has continued to accumulate, but the valuation and monthly spread have risen following PX. The processing fee has remained at a low level for a long time [71][81] Supply - The PTA operating rate has declined to 72% (-3.7%). Some devices have stopped or extended the maintenance time, and the weekly output is about 1.41 million tons [4][83] Demand - The polyester device operating rate is 91.3%, with a rigid demand for PTA of 1.33 million tons. Since November, the new orders from the terminal have declined, but the rigid demand still exists [4][5] Inventory - The inventory has slightly accumulated and shifted to the delivery warehouse [106] Strategy - Operate in the range of 4500 - 4800. For cross - periods, conduct a reverse spread for 1 - 5. For cross - varieties, long MEG short PTA [4] Group 4: MEG Analysis Valuation - The monthly spread has declined, the basis has weakened, and the unilateral price trend is weak. The relative valuation has continued to decline, and the device profit is in a loss [120][124][126] Supply - The operating rate has dropped to 70.67% (-1.9%). Multiple coal - chemical devices have short - stopped, and some devices have maintenance plans in the future. The domestic weekly supply is about 405,000 tons [5][129] Demand - The polyester device operating rate remains around 91.3%, with a rigid demand for MEG of 520,000 tons. The new orders from the terminal have declined, but the rigid demand still exists [5] Inventory - The supply - demand balance sheet has improved, and the expected inventory accumulation rate has decreased [139] Strategy - Operate in the range of 3800 - 4000. For cross - periods, conduct a reverse spread for 1 - 5. For cross - varieties, long MEG short PX [5] Group 5: Polyester Analysis Production - The polyester operating rate is 91.3% (+0.8%). In 2025, the polyester production has increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the growth rate in 2026 is expected to be flat at 5 - 6% [143][150] Export - From January to October, the total polyester export was 12 million tons, +15.2%. The exports of various polyester products have increased to varying degrees [151] Inventory - The downstream sales are sluggish, and the inventory has started to rise [152]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry is experiencing a stalemate in supply and demand, with PTA prices showing strength while ethylene glycol continues to weaken, leading to compressed profits for most polyester products and a predominantly weak market outlook in the short term [1] Raw Material Market Performance PTA - Price Trend: The average weekly price in East China is 4626.8 CNY/ton, up 0.90% week-on-week, indicating a strong fluctuation in spot prices [2] - Core Drivers: Supply continues to tighten due to maintenance at Sichuan Energy Investment and Yisheng Ningbo facilities, leading to an expanded inventory reduction in the balance sheet [2] - Inventory and Profit: Social inventory stands at 3.2488 million tons, down 1.21% week-on-week; average weekly profit is -281.76 CNY/ton, showing a recovery of 3.42% [3] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Price Trend: The average weekly price in East China is 3942.6 CNY/ton, down 0.92%, marking a new low for the year [4] - Core Drivers: The market sentiment is pessimistic, with weak rebound potential and cost support dragged down by falling crude oil prices [4] - Inventory and Profit: Inventory at East China main ports is 633,000 tons, up 2.4%; average weekly profit is -990 CNY/ton, showing a slight recovery of 2.65% [5] PX - Price Trend: The CFR China market average price is 829.2 USD/ton, up 0.53% week-on-week [6] - Core Drivers: Low operating rates at Korean plants and low disproportionation benefits support the increase in PXN price spreads [6] - Supply and Demand: Domestic production is 748,100 tons, down 0.41%; domestic consumption is 939,400 tons, down 4.38%, indicating a positive supply-demand shift [7] Polyester Industry Core Data Overall Supply - Weekly production is 1.5538 million tons, up 0.27% week-on-week; average capacity utilization rate is 87.59%, slightly up by 0.07% [8] - Driving Factors: The restart of the Jinqiao facility and the commissioning of new facilities by Yuxin and Youshun, along with the delayed maintenance of Dawo, contribute to a slight increase in supply [8] Major Product Performance - **Polyester Filament**: POY 150D/48F average price is 6620 CNY/ton, up 0.61%; profit is 143.32 CNY/ton, up 13.34%; inventory is 14.1 days, up 15.57% [10] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Average price is 6287 CNY/ton, down 0.38%; profit is -189.69 CNY/ton, down 33.07%; inventory is 13.88 days, up 1.31% [10] - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: Average price is 5741 CNY/ton, down 0.03%; profit is -154.19 CNY/ton, down 19.63%; supply-demand remains stagnant [10] - **Polyester Chips**: Average price is 5575 CNY/ton, down 0.07%; profit is -101.62 CNY/ton, down 36.31%; inventory is 13.49 days, up 6.14% [10] End Demand and Weaving Market - Weaving Operating Rate: The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 67.69%, down 0.30% [11] - Orders and Inventory: The average order days for end weaving is 13.54 days, down 0.95 days; finished product inventory for long fiber cloth is 22.85 days, up 0.68 days [11] - Demand Characteristics: Winter orders are nearing completion, with new orders showing weak growth; spring orders are starting but lack substantial support, leading to a weaker market atmosphere compared to the same period last month [11] Market Outlook for Next Week Raw Material Side - PTA: Supply continues to shrink, with inventory reduction ongoing; however, insufficient end demand is expected to keep prices in the range of 4500-4650 CNY/ton [12] - Ethylene Glycol: Total supply is expected to increase, with weakened cost support; spot prices are projected to run between 3800-3900 CNY/ton [13] - PX: Supply is expected to rise, and with potential declines in crude oil prices, the market is anticipated to remain weak, with CFR China prices around 828 USD/ton [14] Polyester Side - Supply: New facilities are expected to continue releasing incremental output, with weekly polyester production projected to slightly increase to around 1.56 million tons [15] - Demand: End weaving demand is unlikely to see substantial improvement, with new orders not connecting well, leading companies to focus on inventory digestion [15] - Price Trend: Most polyester products lack cost support, and weak demand is expected to lead to a predominantly weak market trend, with prices for polyester filament, bottle chips, and chips likely to decline slightly [15] Key Focus Areas 1. Progress and restart plans for PTA facility maintenance [16] 2. Impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on cost [16] 3. Timing of spring order launches and changes in weaving operating rates [17]