Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry is experiencing a recovery, with Hengyi Petrochemical's Qinzhou project set to commence production, positioning the company as a leading player in the market [1] Industry Summary - The polyester industry is witnessing a recovery in its economic environment, driven by industry consolidation and supportive growth policies [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing integration within the petrochemical sector, enhancing its profitability [1] Company Summary - Hengyi Petrochemical is leveraging its technological research and development advantages, along with economies of scale, to strengthen its market position [1] - The company has established significant competitive advantages in differentiated product development, intelligent production, and full industry chain collaboration [1] - The Qinzhou caprolactam-polyamide integrated project is anticipated to boost the company's growth [1] - The company expects the first phase of its Guangxi 1.2 million tons caprolactam-polyamide project to commence production in the second half of 2025, with products including civilian fibers, engineering plastics, and films [1] - The commencement of this project is projected to further enhance the company's performance and effectively strengthen its upstream and downstream supply chain [1] - The company is optimistic about its future growth potential and has been given a "buy" rating for the first time [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for polyester is "oscillating", suggesting a lack of clear driving forces and an expected period of mainly oscillatory movement [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester market is experiencing a situation where fundamentals and sentiment are in resonance, leading to a decline in the chemical sector, with polyester following suit. Various factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and others are influencing the market, and overall, the market is expected to be mainly oscillatory [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Some ports are responding to sanctions, causing disruptions in China's crude oil imports. The optimization demand for oil products may be better than the chemical demand. For the PTA segment, the domestic PTA device supply has slightly contracted, the PTA basis has stabilized, and the PX device operating rate has been stable. However, due to sentiment disruptions, costs have weakened, and polyester is expected to decline accordingly [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester has remained at around 90%. The inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, with the main increase in polyester load concentrated in the bottle - chip variety, and the weaving - end load has remained stable [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased by 50,000 tons, with a small inventory build - up during the holiday [4]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, the PTA profit has continued to shrink, and the liquidity in the PTA market is very loose [4]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha has reached $220, and the PTA processing fee has remained at around 200 yuan, with a slight expansion [4]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a moderately low level. After the domestic maintenance season ended, the reforming device has gradually recovered, but attention should be paid to the disruptions to the PX raw material supply caused by the current sanctions [4]. - **Macro Policy**: The State Administration for Market Regulation has launched a legal investigation into Qualcomm for suspected violations of the Anti - Monopoly Law due to its failure to legally report the concentration of business operators in its acquisition of Autotalks [4]. - **Investment View**: There are no obvious driving forces, and the market is expected to mainly oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - The market anticipates an oil surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025, with an estimated surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day. In the first quarter of 2026, as OPEC+ increases production, the surplus is expected to further increase to 2.3 million barrels per day. China has been increasing its SPR strategic reserves, adding to the global additional demand for crude oil. Most of the current crude oil increments come from the Middle East, mainly provided by Saudi Arabia and the UAE [24]. - The US government shutdown may affect gasoline demand during the off - season. North American refineries are operating at high loads. As winter approaches and the North American RVP changes, the increasing demand for butane blending may make it difficult to maintain gasoline profits. The change in North American cracking spreads may affect Asian gasoline cracking spreads, and the cracking spreads in major global regions may weaken [50]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - With the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's new device, the supply of aromatic hydrocarbons has increased. The profit from selective disproportionation has declined. After the end of the maintenance season, the floating spread of PX has continued to weaken, and the operating rate of PX has significantly recovered [33][63]. - The price of pure benzene is suppressing the disproportionation profit. The supply of MX is expected to increase starting in October, and the future domestic xylene capacity addition will continue at a high rate. In 2026, a total of 1.7 million tons of xylene devices from several companies are waiting to be commissioned [63]. - The processing fee of PTA has remained low, and the industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity due to new device commissioning. The downstream load of polyester has remained above 90%, indicating optimistic market demand. Mainstream PTA factories have planned to reduce production, and the PTA operating rate may further improve, but it is difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to the decline in crude oil prices [70]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price has been weakly operating. The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China is still at a low level, the weekly port arrivals are limited, the overseas import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, and the commissioning of domestic new devices has continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has recovered, and the device load has increased [77][83]. - **Gasoline**: The load of major refineries may decline due to port transportation impacts [85]. - **Polyester**: Polyester has continued to maintain a high load, and the production of polyester has increased while the downstream has entered the off - season [91][99].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Methanol - The methanol market presents a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors. The 01 contract fluctuates between current pressure and future expectations. Supply - some inland plants are expected to resume production, but the relatively healthy inventory structure in the inland area supports prices. Demand - traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the expected commissioning of new polyolefin plants suppresses MTO demand. Attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction due to overseas gas restrictions in mid - October, as well as overseas plant operations, sanctions on Iranian vessels, and actual import arrivals [1]. Polyolefin - Polyolefins still face significant post - holiday inventory pressure. On the supply side, PE's operating rate is rising, with few planned maintenance, and long - term supply pressure is prominent due to domestic production growth and overseas year - end inventory clearance. For PP, its valuation has been repaired due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil, and the restart rhythm of plants needs attention. In October, new plant commissioning pressure is high, and demand lacks highlights. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, domestic load remains high, while demand is weak due to low PTA processing fees, delayed commissioning of new PTA plants, and multiple PTA plants' maintenance plans. In the fourth quarter, PX supply - demand is expected to be weak, and prices are under pressure. Strategies include bearish trading on PX1 following crude oil price rebounds and reverse calendar spreads. For PTA, supply is expected to shrink, but the basis repair is limited due to loose spot circulation and weak medium - term supply - demand expectations. Absolute prices are dragged down by weak oil prices and tariff policy uncertainties. Strategies include bearish trading on TA following crude oil price rebounds and rolling reverse calendar spreads for TA1 - 5. For ethylene glycol, port arrivals are high, new plant production is increasing, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in October, with a weak supply - demand structure in the far - month. Strategies include shorting EG01, selling out - of - the - money call options on EG2601 - C - 4350, and reverse calendar spreads for EG1 - 5. For short - fiber, supply is high, and demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to tariffs and weak oil prices. However, low inventory provides some support. Strategies include the same trading as PTA for PF11, and the PF processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100. For bottle - chips, demand is in the traditional off - season, and it is likely to enter the inventory accumulation period. PR follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to improve slightly. Strategies include the same trading as PTA for PR, and the PR main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [6]. Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, supply is expected to remain high due to the resumption of some plants and new capacity commissioning. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in loss, and some downstream plants plan to reduce production. However, port inventory is decreasing. In October, the overall supply - demand is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Strategies include trading BZ2603 in line with styrene and crude oil price fluctuations. For styrene, supply is expected to increase due to new plant commissioning and the resumption of some plants. Although some plants may shut down for maintenance, it is difficult to offset the new supply. Demand decreased during the holiday but is expected to recover gradually. However, downstream profit pressure and high inventory may limit demand support. The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and prices are under pressure. Strategies include bearish trading on EB11 price rebounds [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, post - holiday inventory has increased significantly, and spot trading is light. Downstream non - aluminum inventory is being digested, and there may be some purchasing demand at low prices. The main alumina downstream has high inventory and low restocking willingness, and the future purchase price may be lowered. In the short term, caustic soda demand lacks support and is weak, but there is medium - to - long - term demand support from alumina's future commissioning. Short - term trading can be bearish, and downstream restocking rhythm needs to be tracked. For PVC, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is at a high level, and demand shows no obvious improvement during the peak season, with a continuous contraction in profile demand. However, exports relieve some of the oversupply pressure. Cost provides some bottom - line support. After the holiday, attention should be paid to cost support and downstream demand performance [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2307 on October 10, up 17 (0.74%) from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2351, up 5 (0.21%). The MA15 spread was - 44, up 12 (- 21.43%). The Taicang basis was - 136, unchanged. In terms of spot prices, the Inner Mongolia northern line was 2068 yuan/ton, down 15 (- 0.72%); Henan Luoyang was 2195, down 5 (- 0.23%); Taicang port was 2215, up 5 (0.23%). The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia northern line was 148, up 20 (15.69%); between Taicang and Luoyang was 20, up 10 (100%) [1]. Inventory - Mid - sized methanol enterprises' inventory was 33.94 (6.08% increase); methanol port inventory was 154.3 million tons, up 5.1 (3.42%); social inventory was 188.3, up 7.05 (3.89%) [1]. Operating Rates - Upstream: domestic enterprises' operating rate was 78%, up 0.78 (1.01%); overseas enterprises in Shanghai was 72.1%, up 3.65 (5.33%); northwest enterprises' sales - to - production ratio was 104%, up 3.99 (3.99%). Downstream: the operating rate of externally - purchased MTO plants was 86.28%, up 3.82 (4.63%); formaldehyde was 30.1%, down 2.7 (- 8.22%); acetic acid was 85.1%, down 0.83 (- 0.97%); MIBE + was 66.2%, down 0.39 (- 0.59%) [1]. Polyolefin Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 7037 on October 10, down 40 (- 0.57%); L2509 closed at 7124, down 34 (- 0.47%); PP2601 closed at 6722, down 23 (- 0.34%); PP2509 closed at 6782, down 25 (- 0.37%). The L2509 - 2601 spread was 87, up 6 (7.41%); PP2509 - 2601 was 60, down 2 (- 3.23%). Spot prices: East China PP fiber was 6630, down 20 (- 0.75%); North China LLDPE film was 6980, down 50 (- 0.71%) [5]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory was 48.9 million tons (27.67% increase), and social inventory was 52.5, down 1.03 (- 1.93%). PP enterprise inventory was 68.1 million tons (30.96% increase), and trader inventory was 26.1, up 7.39 (39.48%) [5]. Operating Rates - PE: the operating rate of plants was 83.9%, up 1.85 (2.26%); downstream weighted operating rate was 44.4%, up 0.23 (0.52%). PP: the operating rate of plants was 77.7%, up 1.14 (1.5%); powder plants was 39.3%, up 2.01 (5.4%); downstream weighted operating rate was 51.8%, up 0.05 (0.1%) [5]. Polyester Industry Chain Prices and Spreads - Crude oil and related products: Brent crude oil (December) was $62.73/barrel, down $2.49 (- 3.8%); WTI crude oil (November) was $58.90/barrel, down $2.61 (- 4.2%). PX - related: CFR China PX was $809/ton, down $11 (- 1.4%); PX spot price (in RMB) was 6504 yuan/ton, down 82 (- 1.2%). Polyester products: POY150/48 price was 6770 yuan/ton, unchanged; DTY150/48 was 7850 yuan/ton, down 20 (- 0.3%); polyester bottle - chip price was 5766 yuan/ton, down 23 (- 0.4%) [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory was 50.7 million tons, up 24.0% from September 22; the expected arrival was 8.0 million tons, down 15.4 (- 65.8%). Operating rates: Asian PX was 79.9%, up 1.9%; PTA was 74.4%, down 2.4 (- 3.1%); MEG was 75.1%, up 2.7%; polyester comprehensive was 91.5%, up 1.2% [6]. Benzene - Styrene Prices and Spreads - Upstream: Brent crude oil (November) was $62.73/barrel, down $2.49 (- 3.8%); WTI crude oil (October) was $58.90/barrel, down $2.61 (- 4.2%); CFR Japan naphtha was $577/ton, down $7 (- 1.2%); CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $785/ton, down $20 (- 2.5%). Benzene - styrene: styrene East China spot was 6750 yuan/ton, down 80 (- 1.2%); EB2510 was 6670 yuan/ton, down 52 (- 0.8%); EB2511 was 6743 yuan/ton, down 75 (- 1.1%) [7]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Inventory: pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 9.10 million tons, down 1.50 (- 14.2%); styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 20.19 million tons, up 0.44 (2.2%). Operating rates: Asian pure benzene was 80.1%, up 1.1%; domestic pure benzene was 79.3%, up 0.6%; domestic hydrogenated benzene was 78.0%, unchanged; styrene was 73.2%, down 0.1% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Prices and Spreads - Caustic soda: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2546.9 yuan/ton, up 46.9 (1.9%); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2600.0 yuan/ton, unchanged. PVC: East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price was 4640.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 4900.0 yuan/ton, down 50.0 (- 1.0%) [8]. Supply and Demand - Supply (operating rates): caustic soda industry was 88.2%, up 1.4 (1.6%); PVC total was 80.8%, up 4.7 (6.2%). Demand: caustic soda downstream - alumina industry was 83.4%, down 0.3 (- 0.3%); PVC downstream - Longzhong sample profile operating rate was 15.9%, down 23.0 (- 59.2%) [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.7, up 0.1 (0.3%); PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.4, up 6.6 (20.5%); PVC total social inventory was 55.7, up 2.2 (4.2%) [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weakening [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Adjusting [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 50: Volatile [4] - CSI 300: Volatile [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Widely volatile [6] - Palm oil: Widely volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Widely volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The black sector is affected by tariff expectations, and the price trends of different varieties vary. The financial market is influenced by trade policies, and the bond and precious metal markets show specific trends. The light industrial and agricultural product markets are affected by supply and demand, policies, and weather. The polyester market has complex supply and demand situations and price trends [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side news, the short-term unilateral drive is not strong, and the price trend is relatively stronger than that of finished products. The key lies in steel demand after the holiday [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations suppress the black sector. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be lower than last year, and the demand for coke is strong. The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the second round has basically failed [2] - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the supply pressure is slightly high. Focus on the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and the price needs to cooperate with rapid de-stocking to stabilize [2] - **Glass**: The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, and the inventory has increased. The real estate completion decline drags down the demand. Pay attention to the demand repair in the peak season and production capacity policies [2] - **Soda ash**: The short-term supply and demand are basically balanced. Pay attention to the marginal repair in the peak season [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock index closed down in the previous trading day. Soft drinks and forestry sectors had capital inflows, while semiconductors and computer hardware sectors had outflows. The market risk aversion sentiment has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk preference [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market trend is upward. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] - **Gold and silver**: Gold is in a strongly volatile state. Its pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, geopolitical risks, and physical demand. Silver also shows a similar trend [4] Light Industry and Agriculture - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume has increased, the supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to be range-bound [6] - **Pulp**: The spot market price has mixed trends, and the cost support has increased. However, the demand improvement is uncertain, and it is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price is stable, the production is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to be volatile [6] - **Oils and fats**: The global trade situation is deteriorating, and the supply of oils and fats is abundant. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatile pattern [6] - **Meal products**: The global trade relationship has deteriorated, and the supply pressure of meal products is increasing. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [6] - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight is declining, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [7] - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the production in Hainan is lower than expected. The demand and inventory situation are complex, and it is expected to be volatile [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The supply and demand are increasing, and the price follows the oil price [8] - **PTA**: The supply and demand have marginally improved, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The price follows the cost [8] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, the supply pressure has increased, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly [8] - **PR**: The post-holiday replenishment is weak, and the market may be volatile and weak [8] - **PF**: The cost support is still weak, but the downstream start-up is stable. It is expected to be volatile and sorted [8]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments released a work plan for the petrochemical industry aimed at stabilizing growth from 2025 to 2026, targeting an average annual increase of over 5% in the industry's added value [1] - The plan emphasizes enhancing high-end supply by focusing on key industrial chains such as integrated circuits, new energy, and medical equipment, supporting critical product breakthroughs in electronic chemicals, high-end polyolefins, high-performance fibers, special rubber, and high-performance membrane materials [1] - The plan promotes quality improvement in supply and demand by organizing product matching activities and establishing long-term stable cooperation between production enterprises and downstream users in traditional sectors like construction, automotive, and shipping [1] Group 2 - The polyester industry is experiencing an improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a significant slowdown in new capacity additions, as 650,000 tons of new polyester filament capacity was added in the first half of 2025 [2] - Domestic demand is steadily growing, with China's total retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and the textile and apparel sector growing by 3.1% [2] - The company is set to launch its integrated caprolactam-nylon project in Qinzhou, which is expected to enhance its performance and strengthen its upstream and downstream supply chain [2] Group 3 - The company's profitability is expected to recover with the advancement of stabilization policies in the petrochemical industry, with projected net profits of 430 million, 650 million, and 820 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The company's price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 56, 37, and 29 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 based on the closing price on October 9, 2025 [3] - The company is viewed positively for its future growth potential, receiving an initial "buy" rating [3]

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：成本坍塌，趋势偏弱 | | 本周PX国产装置开工率87.4%（+0.8%），下周乌石化100万吨装置检修（中泰PTA检修），开工率下降。亚洲整体负荷开工率在79.9% （+1.9%）。韩华113万吨装置重启；10月FCFC72万吨、沙特Satorp70万吨计划检修。 | | --- | --- | | | 市场关注由于日照港受到制裁之后管道沿线炼厂的开工情况。目前来看，部分炼厂因原料供应整体负荷下降，但PX开工影响有限。 | | 需求 | 新凤鸣PTA新装置由于低加工费投产时间推迟。印度PTA新装置GAIL逐步计划投产。PX供需略显偏紧。本周PTA开工率74.4%（-2.4%）逸盛 新材料降负，恒力220万吨停车。 | | | 单边趋势偏弱，多PXN。当前美国辛烷值大幅上涨，带动韩国MX估值 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" based on the performance of the refining sector and the expected improvements in product margins [2][154]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in raw material prices, leading to a slight improvement in refining product margins. The domestic refining project price spread increased by 21.59 CNY/ton (+0.91%) to 2404.19 CNY/ton, while the international spread decreased by 6.62 CNY/ton (-0.57%) to 1151.33 CNY/ton [2][3]. - Brent crude oil averaged 65.15 USD/barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.91% week-on-week. The report discusses the impact of geopolitical events and OPEC's production plans on oil prices, indicating fluctuations in response to market conditions [2][15]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes that Iraq is set to resume oil exports from the Kurdistan region, while ongoing conflicts in Ukraine continue to affect energy infrastructure. International oil prices have shown volatility, with Brent and WTI prices at 62.73 USD/barrel and 58.90 USD/barrel, respectively, down by 1.80 USD and 1.98 USD from the previous week [2][15]. - Domestic refined oil prices have generally decreased, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel averaging 6848.00 CNY/ton, 7932.29 CNY/ton, and 5947.21 CNY/ton, respectively [15]. Chemical Sector - The report indicates that the price decline of petrochemical products has not matched the cost reductions, leading to an expansion in price spreads. Polyethylene prices have shown slight fluctuations, while EVA prices have slightly decreased due to reduced downstream demand [2][53]. - The report also highlights that the price of pure benzene has decreased, with a stable price spread, while styrene prices have dropped, leading to a slight narrowing of the price spread [2][70]. Polyester & Nylon Sector - Polyester raw material prices have slightly decreased, with improvements in profit margins for filament products. The report notes that the market supply has slightly increased due to new installations and the resumption of previously halted operations [2][112]. - The average prices for polyester filament products are reported as POY at 6600.00 CNY/ton, FDY at 6750.00 CNY/ton, and DTY at 7800.00 CNY/ton, with varying profit margins across these products [2][134]. Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, with notable weekly increases for companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical (+4.97%) and Hengli Petrochemical (+2.86%). Over the past month, Rongsheng Petrochemical has also shown a positive trend with a 3.16% increase [2][141].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For short - fiber (PF), it is in a short - term volatile market and is expected to be weak in the medium term. The price is driven down by expectations, with increased volatility. Although the current absolute price is low and downstream buying interest is okay, the cost - side price and supply - demand support are both weak. There may be opportunities for recovery if there is a significant short - term over - decline due to tariff expectations [7][8]. - For bottle chips (PR), it is in a situation of being driven down by expectations and having increased volatility. The fourth - quarter factory operation rate is expected to remain at 81% overall. The demand in the fourth quarter is in the off - season, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. If there is a significant short - term over - decline due to tariff expectations, there may be a chance of regression and repair [11][12]. Summary by Directory Short - fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - The current spot premium is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is neutral. The futures processing fee is 1000 yuan/ton, and the valuation of the processing fee and the inter - month spread is basically reasonable, while the basis is high [9]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: After the National Day, the average operating rate of short - fiber decreased to 94.3%, and the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple for spinning decreased to 94.5%. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93% - 95% in the future and may gradually decline slightly from October to November [7]. - Demand: Downstream orders had a concentrated outbreak before the festival, but the sustainability was average due to the hot weather after the festival. The knitted market is better than the woven market. The finished product pressure of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn is okay, and the inventory of grey cloth has decreased. The terminal demand may continue to be affected by the repeated US tariffs [7]. Strategy - Unilateral: Observe the market's reaction to tariff expectations in the short term. Try to go long if there is a significant over - decline [10]. - Inter - period: Hold long spreads [10]. - Inter - variety: None [10]. Bottle Chips (PR) Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, which is over - valued. The processing fees of the November and December futures are 450 - 500 yuan/ton, which are also over - valued, but it may be difficult to compress them due to the weak cost [13]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory operation rate is expected to remain at 81% in the fourth quarter. Currently, factories are still maintaining the production reduction. The 110 - million - ton bottle - chip device of Huarun Zhuhai restarted gradually at the end of September, and the 50 - million - ton device is still increasing its load. It is expected to maintain production reduction and industry self - discipline in the future, with the load generally remaining around 80% [11]. - Demand: The price continued to decline, and there was still an increase in low - price purchases. The demand from October to November decreased month - on - month. The operating rate of beverage factories decreased to about 80%, and the operating rates of edible oil and sheet materials also decreased. The bottle - chip factories accumulated inventory to about 18 days during the National Day. The export in October - November is expected to be in the range of 50 - 55 million tons [11]. Strategy - Unilateral: Observe the market's reaction to tariff expectations in the short term. Try to go long if there is a significant over - decline [13]. - Inter - period: Hold long spreads [13]. - Inter - variety: Go long on TA and short on PR for the November and December contracts when the processing fee is around 480 - 500 yuan/ton [13]. Other Aspects - Cost and Profit: The polymerization cost has dropped to about 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton. The raw materials are weak, and the bottle - chip processing fee is oscillating at a high level. The export profit has also recovered, about 780 - 800 yuan/ton [48]. - Inventory: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has increased, and the inventory of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories has risen to around 18 days. It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory from October to November [53]. - Device Changes: Most factories maintain a 20% production reduction. The new 30 - million - ton device of Fuhai is expected to be put into production in late October, and Wuliangye's 10 - million - ton plan is expected to be launched at the end of this year or early next year [59]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has declined. The operating rate of beverage enterprises ranges from 60% - 90%, the sheet - material industry in East China operates at 60% - 80% and in South China at 40% - 70%, and the average operating rate of edible oil enterprises is around 60% - 80% [63]. - Export: From January to August 2025, the total export volume of domestic polyester bottle - chips and slices was 5.195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. The short - term disturbances include the impact of the US tariff renegotiation on re - exports from South Korea and Vietnam, and the impact of the commissioning of Turkey's SASA on exports to the local area [86].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Propylene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PVC: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] Report's Core View - The chemical industry as a whole is facing various challenges, including weak demand, high inventory, and pressure on supply. Most product prices are under downward pressure, and the market sentiment is generally bearish. However, there are also some differences among different sub - industries, and specific product trends need to be analyzed based on their own fundamentals [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures prices are weak, with limited upward momentum for spot prices due to subdued demand and general market trading [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures prices continue to decline, with increased supply pressure from higher production and inventory accumulation [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are in a low - level shock, and styrene prices are under pressure due to weak cost support, sufficient supply, and lackluster demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are falling due to oil price decline. Near - term supply - demand is okay, but long - term pressure exists [4] - Ethylene glycol has a weak fundamental situation with high domestic production and large port inventory accumulation [4] - Short fiber has some support from seasonal demand, while bottle chip demand is expected to weaken [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures stop falling, but near - term weakness persists due to high imports and inventory [5] - Urea prices hit new lows, with high supply, large inventory, and limited export support [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are likely to be weak due to high supply, increased inventory, and low demand [6] - Caustic soda supply remains high, with downstream resistance to high prices. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are weak, with long - term oversupply. It is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities [7] - Glass has seasonal inventory accumulation, but low - valuation limits the decline. Low - buying near cost can be considered [7]

1. Core Viewpoint The oil price trend is weak and demand is flat, causing a smooth decline in polyester raw materials. The polyester industry chain is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. Due to the downward shift of the PX - PTA cost center, varieties with high inventory pressure like FDY/DTY may need to further reduce prices to clear inventory, while the price of short - fiber with low inventory has relatively strong support [2][5]. 2. Daily Market Summary PTA&PX - On October 09, the PX main contract closed at 6586.0 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 100.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4584.0 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 44.0 yuan/ton [3]. - Cost end: On October 09, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.08 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 62.3 US dollars/barrel. Demand end: On October 09, the total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 680.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 857.33 million meters [3]. - Supply end: Although the PX futures price rose slightly, the basis discount continued to expand to - 100 yuan/ton, indicating that the supply pressure in the spot market remained unchanged, possibly related to the recovery of overseas plant operation and the expected release of new domestic production capacity. The current operating rate of PTA is still high, and some plants plan to overhaul or reduce production under the environment of low processing fees, but there is still an over - supply risk on the supply side as a whole. The decline of the crude oil price center weakens the cost support, and the supply pressure of PX is transmitted to PTA, putting pressure on PTA production profits, and the operating rate may be passively lowered later [3]. - Demand end: Polyester demand shows weak signals. The transaction volume of 680 million meters in Light Textile City is significantly lower than the 15 - day average of 857 million meters, reflecting the weakening of downstream textile orders and the lack of sustainability of terminal restocking. The sales rate of polyester filament has fluctuated and declined recently, and the seasonal decline of loom operation may further suppress the PTA procurement demand [4]. - Inventory end: PTA factory inventory has accumulated slightly for two consecutive weeks. Currently, the basis maintains a discount structure (- 44 yuan/ton), indicating that the spot liquidity is relatively abundant. Factories mainly focus on active inventory reduction under the situation of weakening demand and low processing fees. As the supply - demand contradiction deepens, if the demand side fails to improve substantially, the inventory pressure may gradually become apparent [4]. Polyester - On October 09, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6276.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6405.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 129.0 yuan/ton [5]. - The inventory of polyester short - fiber is 7.58 days, significantly lower than the five - year average of 4.96 days. The inventory of POY is 13.6 days, lower than the average of 20.40 days. The inventory of FDY is 24.1 days, slightly exceeding the average of 22.19 days. The inventory of DTY is 28.9 days, close to the average of 28.42 days. The structural differentiation shows that the inventory reduction of short - fiber and POY is better than that of FDY/DTY [5]. 3. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Futures and Spot Price Changes - PX futures: The main contract price was 6586 yuan/ton on October 09, up 0.24% from September 30. The main contract trading volume decreased by 43.50%, and the main contract positions decreased by 0.99%. PX spot prices in China's main port CFR and South Korea FOB both declined slightly [6]. - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4584 yuan/ton on October 09, down 0.22% from September 30. The main contract trading volume decreased by 5.37%, and the main contract positions increased by 4.75%. PTA spot prices in China's main port CFR declined slightly [6]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6292 yuan/ton on October 09, up 0.25% from September 30. The main contract trading volume decreased by 42.79%, and the main contract positions decreased by 2.08%. The short - fiber spot price in the East China market remained unchanged [6]. Other Price and Index Changes - The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil main contracts declined. The prices of CFR Japan naphtha declined, while the prices of ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained mostly unchanged [6]. - The processing spreads of some products changed. For example, the processing spread of PX increased by 2.53%, and the processing spread of PTA increased by 6.33%, while the processing spreads of some other products remained unchanged or decreased slightly [7]. - The total trading volume of Light Textile City decreased by 44.72% compared with September 30, and the trading volumes of long - fiber and short - fiber fabrics also decreased significantly [7]. - The operating rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged. The inventory days of polyester short - fiber increased by 19.18%, while the inventory days of polyester POY, FDY, and DTY decreased [7]. 4. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On October 09, the minutes of the Fed's September meeting showed internal division among officials, cautiously hinting at a further interest rate cut this year. The EIA crude oil inventory in the US last week increased by 371.5 million barrels, higher than the market expectation of 188.5 million barrels and the previous week's 179.2 million barrels [8]. - On October 08, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed in September was 3.38%, up from the previous value of 3.20%. Fed's Kashkari said that the current economic data showed some signs of stagflation. The People's Bank of China increased its gold holdings for the 11th consecutive month [8]. Supply - Demand - Demand - On October 09, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 680.0 million meters, with a month - on - month growth of - 44.72%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 541.0 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 138.0 million meters [9]. 5. Inferred Future Price Trends - Supply end: The slight increase in PX price may indicate potential supply pressure. The decline in crude oil prices may reduce PX costs, but the negative basis may mean sufficient spot supply, which may suppress PX production profits and lead enterprises to reduce the operating rate. If PX supply increases, PTA production may increase, but downstream demand needs to be considered [38]. - Demand end: The significantly lower trading volume in Light Textile City than the 15 - day average shows weak downstream textile demand. The decrease in the demand for polyester products may lead to a decline in PTA demand. Low trading volume may reflect a decrease in downstream orders, affecting polyester operation and further suppressing PTA demand [38]. - Inventory end: Although the PTA factory inventory data is missing, combined with the negative basis and the decline in demand, it can be inferred that the inventory may accumulate and there is an over - supply situation. The negative basis usually means sufficient spot supply and increasing inventory pressure [38]. - Overall, due to over - supply and insufficient demand, the prices of PX and PTA may decline in the future [39].