Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Products**: A-share index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure; short - term treasury bonds may oscillate; precious metals show certain price patterns and trends; the rally of the container shipping index may slow down [2]. - **Industrial Products**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating; iron ore, coke, and other black commodities have different price trends and market situations; various energy and chemical products have different supply - demand and price characteristics [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, and sugar have their own market trends and influencing factors [2]. - **Special and New Energy Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic; rubber prices are affected by news; new energy products like lithium carbonate are in a downward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. A - shares open lower and oscillate with trading volume maintaining at the trillion - level. Suggest selling put options on the support level of IF2506 to earn premiums, or going long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and selling call options with an exercise price of 6400 on September contracts for covered strategies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term treasury bonds may oscillate, waiting for fundamental guidance. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on high - frequency economic data and liquidity dynamics [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold forms a "double - top" pattern and oscillates narrowly between 3200 - 3300 US dollars (750 - 770 yuan); silver fluctuates between 32 - 33.5 US dollars (8000 - 8350 yuan). The sold out - of - the - money gold call options can be held; Moody's downgrades the US credit rating, causing declines in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets and a slight increase in precious metals [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The emotional release is sufficient, and the upward momentum may slow down. Consider 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads, and wait and see for unilateral operations [2]. Industrial - **Steel**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore oscillates between 700 - 745. Coke and coking coal prices are in a downward phase. Suggest long - hot - rolled steel and short - coke or short - coking coal strategies [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different products have different trends. For example, PX continues to have limited upward momentum; PTA oscillates at a high level between 4600 - 5000; short - fiber prices follow raw materials; ethanol's supply - demand structure improves; styrene has short - term oscillation and medium - term bearishness [2]. Agricultural - Different agricultural products have various market situations. For example, US soybeans oscillate, hogs' futures and spot prices oscillate weakly in the short term, and sugar has positive data from Brazil in late April [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic, and attention is paid to whether it can break through the 1000 - point level; rubber prices rise slightly due to storage news and can be lightly shorted at the upper end of the 14500 - 15500 range [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Lithium carbonate maintains a downward trend, with the main contract referring to 60,000 - 63,000 yuan; polysilicon futures oscillate with near - term strength and long - term weakness [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **LLDPE & PP**: The overall trading was weak on Monday, and market sentiment deteriorated. For plastics, maintenance increased and some production shifted before early June, with low imports. Demand improved in the short - term due to tariff cuts, and there was an expectation of inventory reduction. For PP, the maintenance peak was in late May, and subsequent supply pressure would increase. Demand had short - term benefits but mid - term concerns. The static fundamentals were okay. For single - side trading, it was advisable to go short on rallies, and the LP spread was expected to widen [4]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: For caustic soda, in the short - term, supply pressure was limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand was supported by the potential resumption of some alumina production and new production lines. The purchase price of mainstream Shandong factories increased, and the futures price might rise further, but there were risks. It was recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors could try positive spreads cautiously. For PVC, the short - term rebound was supported by macro - stimulation, export, and supply - demand factors, but there was an over - supply pressure in the long - term. It was expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with a resistance level of around 5100 for the 09 contract [26]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, short - term supply was tight, and demand was supported, but the upside was limited. PX09 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000, and PX9 - 1 was in a short - term positive spread situation. For PTA, the supply - demand situation was expected to weaken. TA09 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 4600 - 5000, and TA9 - 1 was short - term positive spread and medium - term negative spread. For MEG, there was an expectation of inventory reduction, and short - term support was strong. It was advisable to sell put options on EG2509 - P - 4300 and go for positive spreads on EG9 - 1. For short - fiber, the absolute price was expected to adjust, and attention could be paid to the opportunity to widen the processing margin. For bottle - chips, the absolute price followed the raw materials, and attention could be paid to the opportunity to widen the processing margin at the lower end of the range [30]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices were oscillating, and the future logic would shift from macro to fundamental factors. If OPEC's actual production increase was as expected, the market would be under pressure; otherwise, the pressure would be relieved. There was still a short - term geopolitical premium. Oil prices were likely to fluctuate within a certain range. The recommended trading strategy was a band - trading approach, with the WTI range at [59, 69], Brent at [61, 71], and SC at [450, 510]. It was advisable to buy volatility in options trading [34]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory showed an inflection point, and the expected increase in imports would lead to inventory accumulation and a weaker basis. The 09 contract was expected to decline in the short - term, and it was advisable to add positions at 2350, targeting 2050 - 2100. It was also advisable to reduce short - positions on the 69 reverse spread [37]. - **Styrene**: Styrene rebounded strongly. Tariff cuts improved demand expectations, and the inventory was at a low level. However, there were risks, including high inventory in the 3S products and weak pure - benzene supply - demand. It was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - term. Attention could be paid to the resistance level of 7800 - 7900 for the near - month contract, and the opportunity for the EB - BZ spread to widen [42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PE & PP Price and Spread - **PE Futures**: L2505 closed at 7330 on May 19, down 190 (- 2.53%) from May 16; L2509 closed at 7238, up 2 (0.03%) [1]. - **PP Futures**: PP2505 closed at 7137 on May 19, down 111 (- 1.53%) from May 16; PP2509 closed at 7078, down 15 (- 0.21%) [1]. - **Spreads**: L2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 192 (- 67.61%) to 92; PP2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 96 (- 61.94%) to 59 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: East China PP拉丝 spot price was 7160 on May 19, down 10 (- 0.14%); North China LLDPE film material spot price was 7300, unchanged [1]. 3.2 PE & PP Upstream and Downstream开工率 and库存 - **PE开工率**: PE device开工率 was 79.5% on May 16, down 4.55 (- 5.41%) from the previous value; PE downstream weighted开工率 was 39.3%, up 0.57 (1.47%) [2]. - **PE库存**: PE enterprise inventory was 52.8 million tons on May 16, down 4.76 (- 8.27%) from the previous value; PE social inventory was 61.1 million tons, down 0.71 (- 1.15%) [2]. - **PP开工率**: PP device开工率 was 76.6% on May 16, down 3.19 (- 4.0%) from the previous value; PP downstream weighted开工率 was 49.8%, up 0.33 (0.7%) [3]. - **PP库存**: PP enterprise inventory was 60.4 million tons on May 16, down 7.20 (- 10.64%) from the previous value; PP trader inventory was 15.9 million tons, up 1.61 (11.28%) [3]. 3.3 PVC & Caustic Soda Price and Spread - **Caustic Soda**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2625 on May 19, up 31.3 (1.2%); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2800, up 40.0 (1.4%) [25]. - **PVC**: East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4840 on May 19, unchanged; East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 5050, unchanged [25]. - **Futures**: SH2505 was 2563 on May 19, up 36.0 (1.4%); SH2509 was 2586, up 51.0 (2.0%); V2505 was 4834, up 14.0 (0.3%); V2509 was 4959, up 12.0 (0.2%) [25]. 3.4 PVC & Caustic Soda Supply, Demand and库存 - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 85.8% on May 16, down 1.7 (- 1.9%); PVC total开工率 was 74.0%, down 3.8 (- 4.9%) [25]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry开工率 was 77.0% on May 16, down 2.7 (- 3.3%); viscose staple fiber industry开工率 was 80.7%, down 0.3 (- 0.4%); printing and dyeing industry开机率 was 63.2%, up 2.6 (4.2%) [25][26]. - **库存**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.4 million tons on May 15, up 0.1 (0.3%); PVC upstream factory inventory was 40.6 million tons, down 2.0 (- 4.7%); PVC total social inventory was 39.7 million tons, down 1.3 (- 3.1%) [26]. 3.5 Polyester Industry Chain Price and Spread - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) was 65.54 on May 16, up 0.13 (0.2%); WTI crude oil (June) was 62.69, up 0.3% [30]. - **Downstream Polyester Products**: POY150/48 price was 7025 on May 16, down 25 (- 0.4%); FDY150/96 price was 7310, unchanged [30]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX was 841 on May 19, up 2 (0.2%); PX spot price (RMB) was 6971, down 66 (- 0.9%) [30]. 3.6 Polyester Industry Chain开工率 and库存 - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 was 67.5% on May 16, down 3.3 (- 4.7%); China PX开工率 was 74.1%, down 4.5 (- 5.7%); PTA开工率 was 73.0%, up 3.9% [30]. - **库存**: MEG port inventory was 75.1 million tons on May 19, down 0.8 (- 1.1%); MEG to - port expectation was 10.9 million tons, up 5.4 [30]. 3.7 Crude Oil Price and Spread - **Crude Oil**: Brent was 65.54 on May 20, up 0.13 (0.20%) from May 19; WTI was 62.75, up 0.06 (0.10%) [34]. - **Spreads**: Brent M1 - M3 was 1.30 on May 20, up 0.18 (16.07%); WTI M1 - M3 was 1.20, unchanged; SC M1 - M3 was 3.00, down 1.20 (- 28.57%) [34]. 3.8 Crude Oil Product Price and Spread - **Prices**: NYM RBOB was 214.07 on May 20, up 0.19 (0.09%) from May 19; NYM ULSD was 213.04, up 0.27 (0.13%); ICE Gasoil was 617.25, down 1.75 (- 0.28%) [34]. - **Spreads**: RBOB M1 - M3 was 7.87 on May 20, down 0.14 (- 1.75%); ULSD M1 - M3 was 5.00, unchanged; Gasoil M1 - M3 was 9.00, up 1.00 (12.50%) [34]. 3.9 Methanol Price and Spread - **Futures**: MA2505 closed at 2300 on May 19, down 53 (- 2.25%) from May 16; MA2509 closed at 2272, down 12 (- 0.53%) [37]. - **Spreads**: MA2505 - 2509 spread was 28 on May 19, down 41 (- 59.42%) from May 16 [37]. - **Spot Prices**: Inner Mongolia northern line spot price was 2073 on May 19, down 58 (- 2.70%); Henan Luoyang spot price was 2210, down 20 (- 0.90%); Port Taicang spot price was 2340, down 33 (- 1.37%) [37]. 3.10 Methanol库存 and开工率 - **库存**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 33.777% on May 16, up 3.4 (11.14%) from the previous value; Methanol port inventory was 48.4 million tons, down 7.8 (- 13.88%) [37]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 75.5% on May 16, down 0.2 (- 0.20%); Downstream external - procurement MTO device开工率 was 75.68%, up 8.5 (12.67%) [37]. 3.11 Styrene Price and Spread - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil (June) was 65.5 on May 19, up 0.1 (0.2%); CFR Japan naphtha was 569.0, up 4.0 (0.7%) [39]. - **Spot & Futures**: Styrene East China spot price was 8025 on May 19, up 75.0 (0.9%); EB2506 was 7779.0, up 118.0 (1.5%); EB2507 was 7613.0, up 109.0 (1.5%) [40]. - **Import & Profit**: Styrene CFR China was 946.0 on May 19, up 14.0 (1.5%); Styrene import profit was 96.6, up 106.5 (1079.4%) [41]. 3.12 Styrene产业链开工率 and库存 - **开工率**: Domestic pure - benzene comprehensive开工率 was 70.7% on May 16, down 2.6 (- 3.5%); Styrene开工率 was 71.3%, down 0.9 (- 1.3%) [42]. - **库存**: Pure - benzene port inventory was 12.3 on May 15, up 0.3 (2.5%); Styrene port inventory was 9.3, down 0.5 (- 4.9%) [42].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of international disputes on financial markets and emphasizes the importance of maintaining confidence in achieving success amidst these challenges [1]. Group 1: Financial Sector Insights - The People's Bank of China aims to support Beijing in becoming a highland for technology finance and to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi [1]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to accelerate the development of the Beijing Stock Exchange to better serve innovative small and medium-sized enterprises [1]. - U.S. President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, criticizing Chairman Powell for being slow to act [1]. Group 2: Shipping and Commodities - The shipping index for Europe showed fluctuations, with the 08 contract closing at 2387.9 points, up 5.84% [2]. - The SCFIS European line index was reported at 1265.30 points, down 2.9%, indicating a narrowing decline [2]. - The outlook for the shipping market suggests a return to rationality after a period of heightened expectations, with the June contract expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [2]. Group 3: Oil and Industrial Production - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1" due to high government debt of $36 trillion and a heavy interest burden [3]. - China's industrial production showed a year-on-year increase of 6.1% in April, indicating a continued growth trend [3]. - Retail sales in April reached 37,174 billion yuan, growing by 5.1% year-on-year, reflecting a slight acceleration compared to the first quarter [3]. Group 4: Economic Data and Trends - China's April economic data showed a slight recovery in consumption, with retail sales growth at 5.1% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in home appliances and cultural products [5]. - The fixed asset investment growth rate remained low, and the real estate sector showed signs of a pullback [5]. - The retail sales of gold and jewelry increased by 25% year-on-year, while automotive consumption grew by 0.7% [5]. Group 5: Industry Developments - Xiaomi is set to launch its SUV model YU7 and its self-developed SoC chip, which is expected to enhance its high-end strategy [6][7]. - Goldman Sachs has a positive outlook on Xiaomi, citing its strong balance sheet and integration capabilities as key advantages [7]. Group 6: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed slight increases, with the environmental sector leading gains while the food and beverage sector lagged [8]. - The bond market saw a general rise, with the 10-year government bond yield falling to 1.663% [9]. - The market's risk appetite improved following progress in U.S.-China trade talks, which included the cancellation of some tariffs [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 【宏观】海外方面，美国总统表示将在未来两到三周内对许多国家征收新的关税， 美国关税风险重燃；而 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, consider taking phased profit - taking operations or defensive strategies [8]. - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is bullish, the medium - term is bearish, and band trading is recommended [9]. - For container shipping on the European route, the uncertainty of shipping companies' price increases in June exists, and the possibility of price increases in late June is greater [11]. - For cotton, the domestic cotton market is likely to rebound under pressure at a low level [12][13]. - For sugar, the sugar price shows an oscillating trend due to sufficient supply and uncertain supply - demand gap [14][15]. - For palm oil and soybean meal, the short - term trend is expected to be weak [16]. - For eggs, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view on egg futures [17][18][19]. - For apples, it is recommended to mainly use light - position positive spreads [20]. - For red dates, it is advisable to consider short - selling at high prices and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area [21]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to take a bearish approach [21][22]. - For crude oil, pay attention to the range of Brent crude oil between $57 - 67 [23]. - For fuel oil, the price follows the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term increase stronger than that of crude oil [24]. - For plastics, beware of callback risks and turn short when the spot fails to follow up [25]. - For rubber, be cautious when chasing long positions during rallies, and the overall trend is range - bound [26]. - For methanol, beware of callback risks [27]. - For caustic soda, the SH2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [28]. - For soda ash, the short - term price has limited upward and downward space, and the medium - long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [30][31]. - For glass, the price is expected to oscillate or oscillate weakly [30][31]. - For asphalt, it is expected to follow the decline of oil prices and approach 3400 [31]. - For the polyester industry chain, a short - term oscillating approach is recommended, and in the medium - term, consider short - selling at pressure levels or PX, PTA 9 - 1 reverse spreads [31][32]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the futures price may rebound after the short - term tariff impact, but the space is limited [32][33]. - For pulp, the short - term trend is oscillating, and pay attention to the inventory rhythm [33]. - For logs, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating, and consider buying out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the medium - long - term [33]. - For urea, the futures direction is consistent with the call for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices [33]. - For aluminum, it is recommended to buy on dips [33]. - For alumina, consider short - selling lightly when the upward trend stalls, and buy on deep dips for basis repair [33]. - For lithium carbonate, an oscillating approach is recommended [34]. - For industrial silicon, maintain a bearish view before effective supply reduction in the wet season [35][36]. - For polysilicon, the near - month contract may have basis repair power, and the overall trend is weakly oscillating [35][36]. - For steel and ore, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - long - term is expected to be weak [36][38][39]. - For coking coal and coke, there is no condition for going long before large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [40]. - For ferroalloys, a medium - term bearish approach at high prices is recommended [41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - Multiple public - fund industry insiders stated that the recent analysis of market rebalancing due to public - fund assessment benchmarks is inaccurate and lacks basis, and there is no large - scale rebalancing of public - fund products [7]. - Trump will set new tariff rates for US trading partners in the next two to three weeks [7]. - Moody's downgraded the US rating from AAA to AA1 and adjusted the outlook from negative to stable, expecting the US federal debt burden to rise to 134% of GDP by 2035 and the federal deficit to reach 9% of GDP [7]. - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs opposed the US's malicious blockade and suppression of Chinese chips [7]. - Russia and Ukraine held their first direct negotiation in three years, with different views on the negotiation results [7]. - The US and the EU launched trade negotiations to avoid the worst impact of Trump's tariff policies [7]. - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May dropped to 50.8, with the 1 - year inflation expectation at 7.3% and the 5 - year inflation expectation at 4.6% [7]. - In March, overseas creditors' total holdings of US Treasury bonds increased by $233.1 billion to $9.05 trillion, with Japan increasing its holdings and China decreasing its holdings [7]. - The Trump administration plans to introduce a remittance tax for non - citizens [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Affected by US chip information, small - and medium - cap indexes are weak. The weighting index may reach short - term consistency in the adjustment of public - fund allocation logic and then decline. The current congestion of the CSI 1000 index is high, and the market may consolidate in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - After the reserve requirement ratio cut, the money market fluctuated. The short - term outlook is bullish, the medium - term is bearish, and band trading is recommended [9]. 3.4 Container Shipping on the European Route - The market has entered a wait - and - see stage for price increases. The uncertainty of shipping companies' price increases in June exists, and the possibility of price increases in late June is greater [10][11]. 3.5 Cotton - Last week, ICE US cotton prices continued to decline, and the domestic cotton market was under pressure. The cotton market is expected to operate in a low - level oscillation, and the domestic cotton price may rebound under pressure [12][13]. 3.6 Sugar - ICE raw sugar continued to decline last Friday, and domestic sugar prices followed. The expected increase in supply restricts sugar prices, and the domestic sugar price shows an oscillating trend [14][15]. 3.7 Oils and Oilseeds - Palm oil: Affected by the delay in US biofuel policy formulation, the short - term trend is expected to be weak [16]. - Soybean meal: With the acceleration of soybean customs clearance, the domestic oil - mill operating rate has recovered, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak [16]. 3.8 Eggs - The spot price was weak on Friday, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view on egg futures [17][18][19]. 3.9 Apples - The current apple market in the western and eastern production areas is in the young - fruit stage, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to mainly use light - position positive spreads [20]. 3.10 Red Dates - The market price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating. It is advisable to consider short - selling at high prices and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area [21]. 3.11 Live Pigs - The narrowing of the standard - fat price spread has led to an increase in the slaughter of large - weight pigs, suppressing the price of standard pigs. It is recommended to take a bearish approach [21][22]. 3.12 Crude Oil - The market's expectation of demand has improved, and international oil prices have risen. The short - term focus is on the range of Brent crude oil between $57 - 67 [22][23]. 3.13 Fuel Oil - The price follows the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term increase stronger than that of crude oil [24]. 3.14 Plastics - Short - term market sentiment has improved, but beware of callback risks [25]. 3.15 Rubber - The domestic raw - material supply is progressing moderately, and the market is oscillating. Be cautious when chasing long positions during rallies [26]. 3.16 Methanol - After the emotional rebound, the fundamental situation has not improved significantly. Beware of callback risks [27]. 3.17 Caustic Soda - The SH2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly under the influence of the fundamentals and the macro - environment [28]. 3.18 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: The short - term price has limited upward and downward space, and the medium - long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [30][31]. - Glass: The price is expected to oscillate or oscillate weakly, and pay attention to the cold - repair rhythm of glass factories [30][31]. 3.19 Asphalt - It is expected to follow the decline of oil prices and approach 3400 [31]. 3.20 Polyester Industry Chain - A short - term oscillating approach is recommended, and in the medium - term, consider short - selling at pressure levels or PX, PTA 9 - 1 reverse spreads [31][32]. 3.21 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The futures price may rebound after the short - term tariff impact, but the space is limited [32][33]. 3.22 Pulp - The short - term trend is oscillating, and pay attention to the inventory rhythm [33]. 3.23 Logs - The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating, and consider buying out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the medium - long - term [33]. 3.24 Urea - The futures direction is consistent with the call for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices [33]. 3.25 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: It is recommended to buy on dips [33]. - Alumina: Consider short - selling lightly when the upward trend stalls, and buy on deep dips for basis repair [33]. 3.26 Lithium Carbonate - An oscillating approach is recommended [34]. 3.27 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: Maintain a bearish view before effective supply reduction in the wet season [35][36]. - Polysilicon: The near - month contract may have basis repair power, and the overall trend is weakly oscillating [35][36]. 3.28 Steel and Ore - The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - long - term is expected to be weak [36][38][39]. 3.29 Coking Coal and Coke - There is no condition for going long before large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [40]. 3.30 Ferroalloys - A medium - term bearish approach at high prices is recommended [41].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The report believes that the crude oil 2507 contract will run weakly, with short - term, medium - term being in a state of shock, and intraday being shock - weak [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Directory Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within a week): The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be in a state of shock [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to a month): The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be in a state of shock [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be shock - weak and run weakly [1][5]. Core Logic - Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and macro factors have turned optimistic, the US debt crisis in June is approaching, which may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, and the crude oil demand forecast is weak. With the expectation of a soon - to - be - reached Iran - US nuclear negotiation and the increasing expectation of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the cease - fire between the Yemeni Houthi and the US, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have weakened, and the crude oil premium has declined. With the dominance of bearish factors, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to maintain a shock - weak trend on Monday [5]. Price Performance - Last Friday night, the domestic crude oil futures prices showed a shock - consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.30% to 462.5 yuan per barrel [5].

日度报告——综合晨报 穆迪下调美国信用评级，5 月美通胀预期继续 回升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-19 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 穆迪下调后 美国失去最后一个最高信用评级 穆迪下调了美国评级，这意味着美国失去了最高信用评级，对 于美国财政赤字的担忧上升，美元短期走弱。 宏观策略（黄金） 5 月美国通胀预期继续回升 综 周五金价震荡收涨，在 3200 美金附近运行，俄乌谈判扰动市场， 穆迪下调美国主权评级，对金价构成提振，但黄金尚未摆脱回 调趋势。美国政府债务问题市场多黄金核心逻辑。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 阿根廷大豆收获完成 66% 报 上周国内进口大豆成本变动不大。全国油厂共压榨大豆 190.55 万吨，钢联预估本周压榨升至 220 万吨以上，豆粕将进入季节性 累库周期，现货及基差压力不减。 有色金属（锌） 近期俄罗斯龙兴矿锌矿招标下半年 2-3 万吨锌矿 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | F03107631 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0021468 | | Tel： | 862 ...

首席点评： 宏观利好，内需接力 中美达成重要共识。中美经贸高层会谈 5月10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务 院副总理当地时间11日晚在出席中方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深 入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。国际方面：俄乌传出谈判迹象，特朗普表示今日 与双方领导展开沟通。巴以冲突仍在持续，暂无停火意向。印巴冲突导致克什米尔地区战火不断，核威 胁升级，大国博弈加剧。特朗普继续批评鲍威尔降息节奏太迟，但短期来看美联储尚未释放降息讯号。 在宏观面向好的预期下，商品将持续迎接不断的扰动冲击。坚定看好需求韧性下，各品种回到基本面轨 道，等待明确新的方向。 重点品种： 航运、原油、聚烯烃 集运欧线： 上周五 EC回调，08合约在传统旺季预期下回调相对有限。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1154美 元/TEU，环比小幅下降7美元/TEU，基本对应于05.19-05.25期间的欧线订舱价，反映5月下旬运价的多 数沿用。在经过前期宏观情绪缓和及美线抢运潮带来的欧线旺季预期升温后，短期市场有所降温，逐渐 回归理性，预计将回归欧线本身的基本面及估值表现。以目前6月初大柜报价 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to see a rebound after a near-term correction, with a target of breaking through 3674 points before the end of June [3] - The Hong Kong market is viewed as more attractive for retail investors, with significant room for growth in indices like the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index, which are at historical low valuations [3] - Core stocks in the A-share market are gradually listing in Hong Kong, indicating a shift in investment focus [3] Group 2 - The overall market is likely to experience sideways movement, with no significant downturn expected unless there are unexpected negative or positive developments [5] - Major weight stocks have not seen substantial gains, but their price-to-earnings ratios limit the potential for significant declines, suggesting a stable outlook for sectors like banking, insurance, and consumer goods [5] - The market is characterized by sector rotation, with undervalued companies expected to recover while overvalued stocks may decline, emphasizing the importance of timing in investment strategies [7]