Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high production, declining downstream demand, and high inventory. The short - term trend is expected to be mainly oscillating downward [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1200 yuan/ton to 1181 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.58%. The heavy - quality soda ash price in Shahe remained unchanged at 1135 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 65 yuan/ton to - 46 yuan/ton, a decline of 29.23% [6]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1135 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. - The production profit of heavy - quality soda ash was at a historical low, with a profit of - 137.40 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and - 88.50 yuan/ton for the East China co - production process [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 81.65% [17]. - The weekly output of soda ash was 71.19 tons, with heavy - quality soda ash at 38.56 tons, at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was significant new capacity in the soda ash industry. In 2023, the new capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [22]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 108.54% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.45 tons, and the operating rate was 73.89% [28]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash was 143.85 tons, a decrease of 4.06% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [34]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 6. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Equipment problems led to enterprise production reduction and maintenance, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for most products is "oscillation", indicating a neutral stance on the short - to - medium - term investment in the black building materials industry [4][9][11][12][14][18][19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy in 2026 remains positive with the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy. In the off - season, steel continues to reduce inventory, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. The futures market shows an oscillatory trend. With steel mills resuming production and the expectation of winter storage replenishment, iron ore prices are strong, while the coal - coke industry chain has increasing inventory, and the fourth round of coke price cuts has started, putting pressure on the futures market [3][4] - In the off - season, the fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the replenishment expectation, and there is an expectation of a price increase from the low level for furnace materials [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Elements - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Steel mills made small - scale replenishments, and there was strong game between upstream and downstream. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. Spot prices are strong, but after the price increase, spot trading is poor [4][9] - **Scrap Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak. Steel mills have high inventory and slow down replenishment. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum. The leading steel enterprises in East China proposed a price cut of 30 yuan/ton last weekend, and the spot market is expected to follow the price cut [4][11] Carbon Elements - **Coke**: The cost side has shown signs of stabilizing. After the fourth - round price cut is implemented, the spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. As the Chinese New Year approaches, the winter storage intensity increases, and the supply pressure will be relieved [4][12] - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally. There is still upward momentum for both futures and spot prices as the overall supply pressure will be alleviated with the improvement of Mongolian coal imports in January [4][13] Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose and is expected to become looser with the release of new production capacity in Inner Mongolia. The cost side currently supports the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the medium term [4][5][18] - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are both weak. Alloy plants reduce production to match the declining demand. The cost of semi - coke still drags down the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [4][5][19] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply is expected to be disrupted, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [4][5][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is in surplus. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [4][5][17] Steel - Spot market transactions are average. The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the decline in the output of five major steel products has slowed down. The demand is seasonally declining, but there is still support. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the mid - level inventory is still high year - on - year. The cost side shows differentiation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the pre - holiday replenishment rhythm [9] Commodity Index - On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures Commodity Index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial product index was 2258.87, down 0.70%. The steel industry chain index on the same day had a daily increase of 0.11%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.02%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.99%, and a year - to - date decrease of 6.27% [105][107]

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 一、市场行情回顾 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1300，基差 119 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 12 月 25 日，国内纯碱产量 71.18 万吨，环比-0.96 万吨， 跌幅 1.32%。其中，轻碱产量 32.63 万吨，环比-0.48 万吨。重碱产量 38.55 万 吨，环比-0.48 万吨。综合产能利用率 81.65%，上周 82.74%，环比-1.09%。其 中氨碱产能利用率 83.32%，环比-5.90%；联产产能利用率 73.85%，环比+0.79%。 15 家年产能百万吨及以上规模企业整体产能利用率 85.80%，环比-1.68%。虽近 期阿拉善二期新产能投产，但整体行业开工率有所下调，短线供应压力略有所缓 解。 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内偏弱。120 分钟布林带三轨往上， 震荡偏强信号，盘中继续关注日线三十均线压力。成交量较昨日减 23.3 万手， 持仓量较昨日增 34340 手；日内最高 1203，最低 1176，收盘 1181，（较昨日结 算价）跌 7 元/吨，跌幅 0.59 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Natural Rubber Industry - Short - term rubber price may rise due to commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals are weak. Consider short - selling around 15700 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The supply - demand pattern is bearish, prices are in a downward trend with occasional technical rebounds. Look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds [3]. - Glass: The spot market is under pressure, and the 05 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom before positive drivers emerge [3]. Crude Oil Industry - International crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. The supply is in excess, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel. Monitor EIA data and geopolitical developments [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 5300 - 5600. - Styrene: The short - term rebound space is limited. Consider short - selling EB02/03 above 6800 and narrowing the EB spread [6]. Polyolefin Industry - PP: Supply increases while demand decreases, and the 05 contract may face pressure if there are few planned maintenance in 1 - 3 months. - PE: Supply and demand are both weak, but the marginal situation is improving, and short - term pressure is relieved [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The supply - demand is weak, inventory is high, and the rebound height is limited. - PVC: The spot fundamentals are weak, and it is difficult to support price increases [8]. Urea Industry - The short - term supply is high, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the futures main contract focusing on the 1700 - 1760 range [9]. LPG Industry No clear overall view provided in the given LPG - related content. Ester Industry - PX: The short - term supply - demand may weaken, with prices adjusting before the Spring Festival. Consider exiting long positions, short - selling for the aggressive, and low - buying in the medium - term. - PTA: Follow raw material fluctuations. Exit long positions, short - sell for the aggressive, and low - buy in the medium - term. - MEG: Overseas supply may shrink, but near - month inventory accumulation is expected, and price increases face resistance. - Short - fiber: Follow raw material fluctuations, and narrow the processing spread when it is high. - Bottle chips: Domestic supply is expected to increase, and compress the processing spread when it is high [13]. Methanol Industry - The port may face inventory accumulation in December, and the supply - demand balance may turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland price oscillates narrowly. Monitor inventory reduction after the actual arrival at the port decreases [16]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned full - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 15200 to 15300, with a 0.66% increase. - The full - latex basis increased by 9.43% to - 480 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 50% to 15 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Consumption - Thailand's November production decreased by 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons. - China's November production increased by 23.70 thousand tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 3.28% to 515227 tons [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - North China glass price remained at 1010 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of glass decreased by 5.13% to 74 yuan/ton [3]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - Northwest soda ash price decreased by 4.21% to 910 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of soda ash decreased by 3.24% to 179 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - Soda ash weekly output decreased by 1.33% to 71.18 million tons [3]. Inventory - Soda ash factory inventory decreased by 4.06% to 143.85 million tons [3]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil decreased by 2.57% to 60.64 dollars per barrel [4]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB decreased by 2.86% to 169.71 cents per gallon [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - The pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 3.9% to 133 dollars/ton [6]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene East China spot price increased by 2.4% to 6700 dollars/ton [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.4% to 13.93 million tons [6]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 6388 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. - The L15 spread decreased by 61.70% to - 76 yuan/ton [7]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 5.99% to 45.9 million tons [7]. Operating Rates - PE device operating rate decreased by 1.46% to 82.6% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Spot and Futures Prices - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% decreased by 0.7% to 2218.8 yuan/ton. - V2605 increased by 1.6% to 4832 yuan/ton [8]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2% to 88.7%. - PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9% to 75.4% [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory decreased by 2.6% to 22.1 million tons [8]. Urea Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The 01 contract of urea decreased by 0.48% to 1667 yuan/ton [9]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily output remained at 19.19 million tons. - Factory inventory decreased by 9.39% to 106.89 million tons [9]. LPG Industry LPG Prices and Spreads - The main PG2601 contract increased by 0.07% to 4238 yuan/ton. - The PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.63% to 158 yuan/ton [11]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 1.69% to 24.1%. - Downstream PDH operating rate increased by 1.81% to 76.4% [11]. Ester Industry Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - CFR China PX increased by 2.0% to 918 dollars/ton [13]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price increased by 2.0% to 6570 yuan/ton [13]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate increased by 0.6% to 79.5% [13]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2130 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. - The MTO05盘面 increased by 13.18% to - 191 [14]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.28% to 40.397 million tons [15]. Operating Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.46% to 77.99% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated upward, with the main contract SA2605 closing 2.04% higher than the previous week at 1,200 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,135 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous week. Supply is expected to remain abundant next week, with an estimated weekly output of 720,000 tons and an operating rate of 83% due to fewer maintenance enterprises. Downstream demand is tepid, mainly on a need - by - need basis, and some downstream inventories are high. The market sentiment is weak with insufficient drivers. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass decreased. As of December 25, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.4385 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 3.1 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1,176 yuan/ton to 1,200 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.04%. The low - end price of heavy soda in Shahe increased from 1,125 yuan/ton to 1,135 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.89%. The main base difference increased by 27.45% from - 51 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton. [8] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - **Price**: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,135 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous week. [13] - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process was - 137.40 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was - 88.50 yuan/ton, at a historical low. [16] - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 81.65%. The weekly output was 711,900 tons, including 385,600 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The weekly production heavy - alkalinity rate was 54.16%. [19][22][25] - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons. [26] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Output Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - output ratio of soda ash was 108.54%. [29] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 154,500 tons, with an operating rate of 73.89%. [32] 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.4385 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average. [38] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate. [39] 3.6 Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems led to production reduction and maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow. [5] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, with large production - launch plans this year, and the industry output is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. [6] 3.7 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand has declined, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Chinese Companies and Global Demand - Chinese listed companies maintain higher overseas gross margins compared to domestic margins, particularly in capital and technology-intensive industries, indicating a significant competitive advantage [1] - The global demand in 2026 is expected to be favorable for Chinese outbound enterprises, benefiting from the latter half of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, with an uptrend in global industrial and infrastructure capital expenditure [1][5] Aviation Industry - The aviation sector is viewed as a major investment opportunity, with ticket prices showing positive year-on-year growth, serving as a catalyst for the industry [1][6] - Despite fluctuations in December ticket prices, strong travel demand during the holiday season is anticipated to support price increases post-New Year [6] - Recommended stocks include China National Aviation, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [6] Shipping and Oil Transportation - The oil shipping market experienced significant price fluctuations recently, with a notable drop in TCE rates for VLOCs [7] - Long-term outlook remains optimistic due to increased oil production driving demand, with a recommendation to focus on COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and China Ship Leasing [8] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector, particularly the spandex segment, is performing well, with Huafeng Chemical showing significant cost advantages and benefiting from demand growth [9] - Other noteworthy areas include coal chemical companies like Hualu Hengsheng and soda ash producers like Boyuan Chemical [9] Metals Sector - The metals sector is experiencing strong performance, with gold reaching new highs and significant increases in silver, copper, aluminum, and lithium carbonate prices [11] - The supply side remains rigid, and the demand recovery driven by liquidity and AI-related factors is expected to keep prices on an upward trend [11][12] Company-Specific Insights Coal Market - Current coal prices are declining, with expectations of stabilizing around 670 RMB/ton as a bottom [3][18] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a rebound in coal demand due to a recovery in thermal power generation [21] Petrochemical Industry - The petrochemical sector is optimistic for 2026, with signs of inventory replenishment and a favorable price index for products [16] - The polyester supply chain is particularly promising, with recommendations for Tongkun Co., New Fengming, and Hengyi Petrochemical [17] New Materials - Focus areas in the new materials sector include lubricant additives, storage materials, and AI-related high-speed technologies, with specific companies recommended for investment [10] Energy Metals - The lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong due to increasing storage demand, with recommendations for stocks in the energy metals sector [14] Steel Industry - Leading steel companies like Nanjing Steel and Baosteel are seen as good investment opportunities despite recent adjustments, with a projected decline in capital expenditure for 2026 [15] Additional Considerations - The overall sentiment for the Chinese stock market in 2026 is optimistic, driven by economic reforms and increased capital inflows [3] - The impact of monetary policy, geopolitical factors, and supply uncertainties on various sectors should be closely monitored [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The terminal demand is still weak, and the fundamentals of hot-rolled coils are under pressure. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. The willingness for winter storage is weak, and it is difficult to form a concentrated replenishment market. The macro level is still in the policy observation period, and attention should be paid to the "dual carbon" policy and its marginal impact on the steel industry [2]. - The supply of iron ore has decreased in the latest period, the demand has remained stable, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. With the late Spring Festival in 2026, there is some room for replenishment demand. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate in the shock range [5]. - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has become more positive, but the capital's interest in the black sector has declined. Attention should be paid to the risk of a rebound in the black sector at low levels, especially in the alloy sector. The future market of manganese and silicon ferroalloys is mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost - push and supply - contraction factors [10][11]. - The supply of industrial silicon has slightly increased, and the demand support has weakened, with the possibility of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate with the market, and attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [14][15]. - Due to the strengthening of exchange supervision, the sentiment of the polysilicon futures market has cooled. The production of polysilicon is expected to decrease further. The price of the upstream raw materials is supported by the price increase in the industrial chain, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions [17]. - The glass market is in the traditional off - season, with weak supply and demand. It is expected to remain weak in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - The supply of soda ash is abundant, and the demand is weak. The supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is expected to be limited [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3118 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (-0.28%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1815 tons to 60442 tons. The main contract's open interest decreased by 47415 lots to 1.534424 million lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3160 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Last Friday, the overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate in the bottom range. This week, the rebar production slightly increased, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory was at a five - year low [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3283 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton (0.091%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 104588 tons. The main contract's open interest decreased by 6522 lots to 1.23239 million lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong remained unchanged at 3260 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The production of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand slightly increased, the inventory continued to decrease, and the inventory contradiction was marginally alleviated. The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.58% (+4.50). The open interest increased by 13627 lots to 580700 lots. The weighted open interest was 941200 lots. The price of PB fines in Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 63.80 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.53% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased in the latest period. The daily average pig iron output remained stable. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill's inventory of imported ore increased slightly but remained at a low level in the same period of the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate in the shock range [5]. Manganese and Silicon Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - **Market Quotes**: On December 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.10% at 5840 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, equivalent to the futures price. The weekly price of the futures weighted index increased by 34 yuan/ton or +0.58% [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. Future market trends are mainly affected by the black sector's direction and cost - push factors from manganese ore [11]. Silicon Ferro - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of silicon ferro (SF603) closed down 0.35% at 5672 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton over the futures price. The weekly price of the futures weighted index increased by 36 yuan/ton or +0.64% [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply - demand structure of silicon ferro remains basically balanced, with marginal improvement. Future market trends are mainly affected by the black sector's direction and supply - contraction factors due to losses [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8880 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.51% (+45). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 6205 lots to 402891 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with basis values of 320 yuan/ton and - 30 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The production in the southwest has reached a low level, while the operating rate in Xinjiang has increased. The demand from polysilicon has weakened, and the demand from organic silicon is relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate with the market, and attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [14][15]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 58955 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.97% (-1805). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 19718 lots to 193125 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon and N - type dense material remained unchanged, and the average price of N - type re - feed material increased by 0.05 yuan/kg. The basis was - 6555 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Due to the strengthening of exchange supervision, the market sentiment has cooled. The production is expected to decrease further. The price increase in the industrial chain supports the raw material price, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of glass closed at 1047 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 0.10% (-1). The prices of large - sized glass in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 65000 cases (+0.11%) to 58.623 million cases. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 25732 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 29724 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The market has entered the traditional off - season, with weak supply and demand. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1184 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, unchanged from the previous day. The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased by 6 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 60800 tons (-4.06%) to 1.4385 million tons, including a decrease of 68700 tons in heavy - soda inventory and an increase of 7900 tons in light - soda inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 20353 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 23163 lots [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is expected to be limited [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are supported by the cost side but constrained by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore has both upward and downward drivers and is expected to trade in a range, with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the coke valuation repair drive may weaken [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside and downside space [48] - With the strengthening expectation of new soda ash capacity coming online, the market is in surplus, and prices are under pressure [62] - Some glass production lines are expected to cold repair before the Spring Festival, affecting long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [85] Summary by Categories Steel Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3097, 3118, and 3167 respectively; hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3288, 3283, and 3296 respectively [4] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3318 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [8][10] Ratios - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore were all 4; to 01, 05, and 09 coke were all 2 on December 26, 2025 [18] Iron Ore Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 801.5, 783, and 761 respectively [22] Fundamentals - On December 26, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 226.58 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons [25] Coking Coal and Coke Futures Spreads - On December 26, 2025, the spreads of coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 were 174, - 80, and - 94 respectively; for coke were 224.5, - 76.5, and - 148 respectively [35] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [38] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On December 26, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 72, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton [49] Silicon Manganese - On December 26, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 100, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5590 yuan/ton [50] Soda Ash Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1200, 1258, and 1121 respectively [63] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the light - soda market price was 1250 yuan/ton [63] Glass Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1057, 1160, and 936 respectively [86] Spot Sales - On December 25, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 102, and in Hubei was 97 [87]

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短线震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 26 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力高开高走，日内偏强。120 分钟布林带三轨往上， 震荡偏强信号，盘中关注日线三十均线压力。成交量较昨日增 46.7 万手，持仓 量较昨日增 13743 手；日内最高 1207，最低 1171，收盘 1200，（较昨日结算价） 涨 16 元/吨，涨幅 1.35%。 2，现货市场：淡稳维持。企业装置大稳小动，个别企业计划检修，供应有 所下降。企业发货前期订单为主，新订单一般，下游需求表现一般，维持低价刚 需补库为主。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1300，基差 100 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 12 月 25 日，国内纯碱产量 71.18 万吨，环比-0.96 万吨， 跌幅 1.32%。其中，轻碱产量 32.63 万吨，环比-0.48 万吨。重碱产量 38.55 万 吨，环比-0.48 万吨。综合产能利用率 81.65%，上周 82.74%，环比-1.09%。其 中氨碱产能利用率 83.32%，环比-5.90%；联产产能利用率 73.85%，环比+0.79%。 15 家 ...