Group 1: Market Positioning - The Shanghai Composite Index has returned to 3800 points after a recent geopolitical conflict-induced pullback, indicating a potential phase bottom with limited downside space[3] - Strong sectors at the beginning of the year have mostly retreated to the 3800-4000 point range, including cyclical products (non-ferrous metals, steel) and technology themes (electronics, media, military, machinery)[4] - Some real estate and consumer sectors have returned to the 3300-3600 point range, while food and personal care sectors have dropped to around 3000 points, reflecting significant declines[4] Group 2: Valuation Insights - The current PE ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index has decreased from 17.2x in early March to 16.3x, with the 20-year percentile dropping from 77% to 68%[7] - Technology manufacturing sectors remain overvalued, with communication at a PE of 53x (85th percentile), electronics at 64x (77th percentile), and machinery at 39x (76th percentile)[7] - Cyclical products have seen a significant drop in valuation, with non-ferrous metals at a PB of 3.4x (67th percentile), coal at 1.6x (54th percentile), and steel at 1.2x (47th percentile)[7] Group 3: Investment Focus - Emphasis on high dividend yield stocks for safety, with banks at 4.6%, coal at 4.4%, home appliances at 4.1%, and food and beverage at 3.8%[7] - Investment opportunities identified in sectors with low valuations and strong earnings potential, such as agriculture, cyclical products, and electronics[10] - Attention to sectors with low PB-ROE ratios and strong profitability, including food and beverage, home appliances, non-bank financials, and basic chemicals[10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Oscillating operation" [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the steel products market show a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and the steel prices are oscillating. The recent strength of steel prices is mainly due to the cost increase from the raw material side. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand in the future [2][3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel Industry Data - In February 2026, the total energy consumption of member enterprises of the China Iron and Steel Association decreased by 2.91% year - on - year; the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 1.66% year - on - year; the comparable energy consumption per ton of steel decreased by 1.43% year - on - year; the power consumption per ton of steel increased by 4.05% year - on - year [2] - On March 24, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,403 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The average profit was - 86 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 26 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] Real Estate Market Data - From March 16th to 22nd, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.8897 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 27.9%; the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 2.2767 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 9% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and oscillate and consolidate. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be under pressure at a high level in the short term and adjust under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown arrangements, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to oscillate downward, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to shift downward. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - Overseas electrolytic aluminum production reduction expectations still exist, and the global supply contraction logic remains. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains stable with limited supply increments [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9% last week, showing signs of a peak season, and demand was released. The photovoltaic materials in the profile sector entered the final stage of "rush - export", and new orders in the automotive and power fields increased significantly [3] - After the Spring Festival, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market continued to accumulate inventory. As of March 19, the inventory in the mainstream consumption areas was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from last Thursday. The inventory is still at a high level in the past five years, but the inventory accumulation situation has shown signs of easing [3] - LME inventory depletion supports the bottom of LME aluminum, but the upward momentum is insufficient. Domestic high - inventory and weak reality suppress the upward momentum, and the internal and external driving forces continue to diverge [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The document presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from March 18 to March 24, 2026, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan for rebar, and Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong for hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils. It also shows the price changes during this period [1]. Production and Inventory - Not provided in the given content Basis and Spread - Not provided in the given content

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for rebar and hot-rolled coil are both "wide-range fluctuations" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals, macro and industry news, and trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coil, showing the current market situation and price trends of these two commodities [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: For RB2605, the closing price was 3,145 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.10%); for HC2605, it was 3,324 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.21%). The trading volume of RB2605 was 618,964 lots, with a position of 1,263,489 lots, a decrease of 87,899 lots; for HC2605, the trading volume was 253,950 lots, the position was 1,024,272 lots, a decrease of 31,099 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou were 3,240, 3,280, 3,170, and 3,450 yuan/ton respectively, with some prices unchanged compared to the previous day. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou were 3,300, 3,330, 3,240, and 3,300 yuan/ton respectively, with some prices unchanged and Tianjin up 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2605 was 95 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2605 was -24 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The spreads such as RB2605 - RB2610, HC2605 - HC2610, etc. also showed different changes [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Enterprise Inventory and Production**: In early March 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 17.81 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 470,000 tons (2.7%). The production of key steel enterprises in early March included 20.11 million tons of crude steel (average daily output of 2.011 million tons, a daily decrease of 0.8%), 18.21 million tons of pig iron (average daily output of 1.821 million tons, a daily decrease of 4.0%), and 18.45 million tons of steel (average daily output of 1.845 million tons, a daily decrease of 12.6%). The national daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel also decreased to varying degrees [2][3] - **National Steel Production**: From January to February, the national cumulative production of crude steel was 160.34 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%; pig iron was 137.7 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%; steel was 221.19 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [3] - **Weekly Data**: On March 19, the output of rebar increased by 80,300 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 49,500 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 188,500 tons. The total inventory of rebar decreased by 47,600 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 103,000 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 286,600 tons. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 312,800 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 155,000 tons, and the total increased by 704,000 tons [3] - **Real Estate and Investment Data**: From January to February, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year. The national fixed asset investment increased by 1.8% year-on-year [3] - **Steel Import and Export Data**: In February 2026, China imported 369,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 90,000 tons (19.6%); imported 97.638 million tons of iron ore, a month-on-month decrease of 14.747 million tons (13.1%); exported 783,700 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 83,000 tons (1.1%) [3] - **Price Index Data**: In February 2026, the national consumer price index increased by 1.3% year-on-year, and the industrial producer price index decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month; it increased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as the previous month [3] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of rebar is 0, and that of hot-rolled coil is also 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

1. Investment Rating of the Report - The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The black metal market is in a high - level volatile trend. Affected by the decline in the futures market, the basis has strengthened. The supply - demand of the steel industry is basically balanced with few contradictions. Currently, both supply and demand are increasing, and last week's apparent demand increased more than production. The industry is in the seasonal de - stocking phase. Later, the height of the recovery of apparent demand needs to be monitored. Raw materials support steel prices due to iron ore supply disruptions and the energy substitution logic of coking coal. Steel prices have risen to the upper limit of the range, and the short - term industry contradictions are not significant. The steel price center may rise due to raw material promotion, but attention should be paid to the interference of natural gas fluctuations on black metals including coking coal [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore main contract maintained a high - level volatile trend. Affected by a super typhoon, Rio Tinto's Dampier Port was closed until Saturday, and short - term Australian shipments are expected to decline but will be replenished later. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipments increased slightly week - on - week, with Australian shipments continuing to rise and BHP's shipments falling to a historical low. The impact of the Australian typhoon on shipments needs to be monitored. On the demand side, last week's hot metal production increased significantly week - on - week as previously - overhauled steel mills resumed production. Currently, terminal demand recovery is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and steel exports are uncertain. Attention should be paid to the height and sustainability of hot metal production recovery. In terms of inventory, steel mill inventories increased week - on - week, and port inventories decreased slightly. It is expected that port inventories will either slightly decrease or remain flat as arrivals return to a low level and resumption of production drives an increase in port clearance. In the short term, the iron ore main contract will operate in a high - level volatile range [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures showed a high - level decline. Spot auction prices in Shanxi turned to more increases than decreases, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with the futures. After the holiday, restocking demand gradually recovered. The US - Iran conflict caused high - level fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas. On the supply side, coal mines gradually resumed production, and daily coal production increased. Imported coal port inventories accumulated at a slower pace and remained at a relatively high level after customs clearance. On the demand side, after the Two Sessions, steel mill production restrictions were lifted, hot metal production increased, and coking production also increased. With cost increases, coking coal prices are expected to bottom out and rebound. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, coking enterprises, and ports accumulated inventory, while coal mines, steel mills, and ports reduced inventory, with overall inventory starting to accumulate downstream. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract in the range of 1150 - 1350 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Coke**: The coke futures showed a high - level decline. Mainstream coking enterprises initiated the first round of price increases on March 23, which are expected to be successfully implemented. The increase in coking coal prices provides cost support for coke price increases. Port prices fluctuate with the futures. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and coking production prices have increased significantly to make up for coke losses. After the Two Sessions, coking plant operations began to increase. On the demand side, after the Two Sessions, steel mill production restrictions were lifted, hot metal production increased, steel prices rebounded from a low level, and restocking demand will gradually recover later. In terms of inventory, coking plants reduced inventory, while steel mills and ports accumulated inventory, with overall inventory slightly increasing at a medium level. The short - term supply - demand of coke is basically balanced. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract in the range of 1700 - 1900 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon main contract rose slightly, with the price rising on the futures market and then falling back. Geopolitical conflicts affected coal price expectations, and market sentiment was volatile. A ferrosilicon plant in Ningxia started a 33000kva ferrosilicon furnace and produced iron. This week, ferrosilicon production increased slightly week - on - week, with production increasing in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu. Due to recent price increases, manufacturers' profits have improved, and it is expected that supply will continue to grow. In terms of demand, hot metal production increased significantly week - on - week, and steel mill overhaul impacts continued to decline. Non - steel demand, such as magnesium ingot daily production, was at a relatively high level and increased. Ferrosilicon exports weakened, but export profits improved. Lanthanum prices remained stable, but rising coal prices may drive up lanthanum prices, providing cost support for ferrosilicon. In the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, market sentiment is volatile, supply and demand of ferrosilicon both increase, and costs are affected by coal. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production rhythm and cost changes. It is expected that prices will fluctuate widely in the range of 5700 - 6800, and it is recommended to wait and see, or try to go long on ferrosilicon and short on ferromanganese for price repair [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese main contract rose and then fell, closing slightly lower. The Global Manganese Industry Association announced energy - saving and emission - reduction measures, with a total reduction of 30%. Spot manganese - silicon sentiment was high, with no low - price sales in the market, and increased participation in hedging on the futures market. Manganese ore spot was strong. Last week, ferromanganese supply decreased slightly week - on - week, with consecutive weeks of declining operating rates. Inner Mongolia's production decreased slightly, and southern production pressure remained high. Yunnan's power price subsidies led to some resumption of production. New production capacity will be launched in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to changes in ferromanganese supply. In terms of demand, hot metal production increased significantly week - on - week, and steel mill overhaul impacts continued to decline. In terms of cost, some manganese ore port supplies were in tight balance, and factors such as the resumption of manganese - silicon production and rising shipping costs pushed up prices. Coking coal price increases also drove up chemical coke prices, pushing up ferromanganese costs. In the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, market sentiment is volatile, supply and demand of ferromanganese both increase, and costs are pushed up. It is expected that prices will fluctuate widely [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - **Threaded Steel**: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3240 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3145 yuan/ton, 3173 yuan/ton, and 3196 yuan/ton respectively, all showing declines [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3300 yuan/ton, 3240 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3324 yuan/ton, 3331 yuan/ton, and 3333 yuan/ton respectively, all showing declines [1]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: Steel billet price was 2990 yuan/ton, and slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, both unchanged. Jiangsu electric - furnace threaded steel cost was 3264 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; Jiangsu converter threaded steel cost was 3184 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit**: East China hot - rolled coil profit was 38 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; North China hot - rolled coil profit was - 32 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; East China threaded steel profit was - 12 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; North China threaded steel profit was - 52 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; South China threaded steel profit was 188 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton [1]. Production - **Daily Average Hot Metal Production**: It was 228.2 tons, up 7.0 tons or 3.1% from the previous value [1]. - **Five - Variety Steel Production**: It was 839.8 tons, up 18.9 tons or 2.3% from the previous value. Threaded steel production was 203.3 tons, up 8.0 tons or 4.1%, including an increase of 5.1 tons or 17.6% in electric - furnace production and 2.9 tons or 1.8% in converter production. Hot - rolled coil production was 300.2 tons, up 4.9 tons or 1.7% [1]. Inventory - **Five - Variety Steel Inventory**: It was 1946.2 tons, down 28.7 tons or - 1.5% from the previous value. Threaded steel inventory was 889.4 tons, down 4.8 tons or - 0.5%; hot - rolled coil inventory was 461.3 tons, down 10.3 tons or - 2.2% [1]. Transaction and Demand - **Building Materials Transaction Volume**: It was 9.4 tons, down 1.6 tons or - 14.9% from the previous value. The apparent demand for five - variety steel was 868.5 tons, up 70.4 tons or 8.8%; the apparent demand for threaded steel was 208.1 tons, up 31.3 tons or 17.7%; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 310.5 tons, up 15.2 tons or 5.1% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: The warehouse receipt cost of Karara fines was 1956 yuan/ton, up 2.2 yuan/ton or 0.2%; the warehouse receipt cost of PB fines was 854.5 yuan/ton, up 1.1 yuan/ton or 0.1%; the warehouse receipt cost of Brazilian mixed fines was 858.2 yuan/ton, up 1.1 yuan/ton or 0.1%; the warehouse receipt cost of Jinbuba fines was 891.6 yuan/ton, up 1.1 yuan/ton or 0.1% [4]. - **05 Contract Basis**: The 05 contract basis of Karara fines was 111.1 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan/ton or - 2.5%; the 05 contract basis of PB fines was 30.5 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan/ton or - 11.3%; the 05 contract basis of Brazilian mixed fines was 34.2 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan/ton or - 10.3%; the 05 contract basis of Jinbuba fines was 67.6 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan/ton or - 5.5% [4]. - **5 - 9 Spread**: It was 33.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton or 3.1%; the 9 - 1 spread was 24.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - **Rizhao Port Spot Prices**: The price of Karara fines was 960.0 yuan/wet ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton or 0.2%; the price of PB fines was 797.0 yuan/wet ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton or 0.1%; the price of Brazilian mixed fines was 835.0 yuan/wet ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton or 0.1%; the price of Jinbuba fines was 743.0 yuan/wet ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton or 0.1% [4]. - **Singapore Exchange 62% Fe Swap**: It was 106.7 dollars/ton, unchanged [4]. Supply - **45 - Port Arrivals (Weekly)**: It was 2271.6 tons, up 56.6 tons or 2.6% from the previous value. Global shipments (weekly) were 3144.3 tons, up 3048.8 tons or 3.1% from the previous value. The national monthly import volume was 9763.8 tons, down 2200.9 tons or - 18.4% from the previous value [4]. Demand - **247 Steel Mills' Daily Average Hot Metal (Weekly)**: It was 228.2 tons, up 7.0 tons or 3.1% from the previous value. The 45 - port daily average port clearance (weekly) was 321.0 tons, up 3.1 tons or 1.0% from the previous value. The national monthly pig iron production was 6072.2 tons, down 6072.2 tons or - 100.0% from the previous value; the national monthly crude steel production was 0.0 tons, down 6817.7 tons or - 100.0% from the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - **45 - Port Inventory**: It was 17187.52 tons, down 89.1 tons or - 0.5% from the previous value. The 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory (weekly) was 9034.1 tons, up 105.0 tons or 1.2% from the previous value. The 64 steel mills' inventory available days (weekly) were 21.0 days, down 2.0 days or - 8.7% from the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - **Coke Spot Prices**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) was 1681 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) was 1767 yuan/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Coke Futures Contracts**: The 05 contract was 1798 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton or - 2.7%; the 09 contract was 1874 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton or - 2.2% [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 05 basis was - 31 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton; the 09 basis was - 107 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton; the 05 - 09 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Profit**: The Steel Union's coking profit (weekly) was 0 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - **Coking Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) was 1330 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 2.3%; the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) was 1337 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or - 0.7% [6]. - **Coking Coal Futures Contracts**: The 05 contract was 1250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton or - 3.1%; the 09 contract was 1372 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or - 0.5% [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 05 basis was 88 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the 09 basis was - 35 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the JM05 - JM09 spread was - 122 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton [6]. - **Sample Coal Mine Profit**: It was 495 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 2.7% [6]. Supply - **Coke Production (Weekly)**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 64.2 tons, up 0.3 tons or 0.5% from the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 47.3 tons, up 0.3 tons or 0.7% from the previous value [6]. - **Coking Coal Production (Weekly)**: The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines was 6088 tons, up 7.0 tons or 0.8% from the previous value; the clean coal production was 448.5 tons, up 2.6 tons or 0.64% from the previous value [6]. Demand - **Hot Metal Production (Weekly)**: The 247 steel mills' hot metal

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping and carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and policy changes to offer trading strategies for different futures products. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The rebound is expected to continue. The market rebounded on Tuesday, but it is a weak - market rebound. The probability of a future rebound is high, and trading strategies include grid operations, IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short arbitrage, and option watching [18][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Partially stop - profit on cross - variety arbitrage positions. The bond market is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the 30Y - 7Y term spread short position (TL - 3T) can be partially stopped - profit and then continue to hold in moderation [22][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure increases, and the market is generally downward. It is recommended to place a small number of long orders in the far - month contracts and narrow the MRM09 spread [25][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices soar, while domestic sugar prices fluctuate. It is recommended to build long positions on Zhengzhou sugar at low prices and sell put options [27][31]. - **Edible Oils**: Oils maintain high - level fluctuations. In the short term, they may fluctuate at a high level, and p59 can consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [31][34]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Corn supply increases, and the market fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to go long on the 05 corn on dips and narrow the 05 corn - starch spread [34][38]. - **Hogs**: Supply pressure increases, and prices are mainly downward. It is recommended to wait and see and sell wide - straddle options [39][41]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices are strong, and the market fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 05 peanut on dips and sell pk605 - P - 7700 options [41][43]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens decreases, and egg prices are mainly stable. It is recommended to short the June contract on rallies [43][46]. - **Apples**: The inventory reduction speed is fast, and apple prices are firm. It is recommended to wait and see for the May contract [47][49]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Cotton prices have strong support below, and the trend is oscillating and strengthening. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [49][52]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Overseas sentiment affects futures prices, and there is no trending market. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating trend and short the coil - coal ratio [54][56]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Fluctuations are large, and attention should be paid to the progress of geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to wait and see and be cautious about short - term trading [56][59]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances increase, and ore prices are at a high level. It is recommended for spot enterprises to hedge at high prices and conduct 5/9 month - spread short - selling [60][61]. - **Ferroalloys**: Driven by energy costs, they fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to go long on a rising trend and sell out - of - the - money put options [62][63]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: There is a glimmer of hope for the easing of the Middle East situation, and gold and silver prices recover. If Shanghai gold and silver can stand firm on the 120 - day moving average, consider an oscillating trading strategy [64][66]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The expectation of peace talks strengthens, and precious metal prices rise. It is recommended for high - risk - tolerance investors to go long on platinum cautiously, and conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage [68][70]. - **Copper**: Geopolitical risks are expected to ease, and copper prices rebound slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to macro changes in a low - level oscillation [71][73]. - **Alumina**: Attention should be paid to the mining policy in Guinea and the Middle East geopolitical conflict. It is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates weakly [73][76]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There is uncertainty in the geopolitical conflict. It is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates and rebounds [76][80]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: There is uncertainty in the geopolitical conflict. It is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates and rebounds with aluminum prices [80][82]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to macro and capital sentiment. Zinc prices may oscillate at a low level in the short term [82][85]. - **Lead**: It oscillates at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [86][88]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is dominated by the macro situation. It is recommended to wait for the macro situation to stabilize [88][90]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by costs, it follows the nickel price. It is recommended to wait for the macro situation to stabilize [90][92]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It oscillates within a range. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the range [93][94]. - **Polysilicon**: It is weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy guidance. It is recommended to be cautious about liquidity risks [97][99]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Low prices attract downstream buyers. It is recommended to go long as the price is strong [99][102]. - **Tin**: Tin prices change with macro sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to the negative impact of helium blockade on tin consumption [103][107]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The US proposes a one - month cease - fire agreement, and short - term geopolitical sentiment eases. The short - term market is expected to continue to correct, but geopolitical risks should be vigilant [108][111]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: Iran sets up a safety corridor for ships, which may improve the shipping environment. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation in the Middle East and the impact of fuel prices on freight rates [111][114]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The Chinese carbon market has dull trading, while the EU carbon market's confidence and price are recovering. The Chinese carbon price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and the EU carbon price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [114][118]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The trend closely follows the geopolitical situation, with sharp intraday fluctuations. It is recommended to go long at a high level [120][122]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical tensions ease, and attention should be paid to the short - term oil price fluctuation risk. It is recommended to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips [122][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical tensions ease, and attention should be paid to the short - term oil price fluctuation risk. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [125][128]. - **LPG**: The decline in the external market drives the internal market down. It is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates strongly at a high level [128][129]. - **Natural Gas**: Geopolitical risks persist, and the upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to sell deep out - of - the - money put options on TTF [130][134]. - **PX & PTA**: There is an expected unplanned reduction in supply, and PTA enterprises may be forced to cut production. It is recommended to wait and see [136][138]. - **BZ & EB**: There are concerns about raw material supply, and styrene exports are good. It is recommended to wait and see [139][143]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The import volume is revised down. It is recommended to wait and see [143][146]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing margin fluctuates within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [146][148]. - **Bottle Chips**: Inventory is continuously being reduced. It is recommended to wait and see [148][152]. - **Propylene**: Supply is tight. It is recommended to wait and see due to the volatile Middle East situation [152][155]. - **Plastic PP**: Reduce long positions. It is recommended to wait and see for L and PP, and reduce the SPC L2605&PP2605 spread position [155][157]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda weakens. It is recommended to oscillate and follow the market sentiment caused by the US - Iran conflict [158][159]. - **PVC**: It falls weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [160][162]. - **Soda Ash**: It oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to short at high levels and sell call options [163][164]. - **Glass**: It falls weakly. It is recommended to short at high levels and sell call options [164][166]. - **Methanol**: It continues to be weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly [166][169]. - **Urea**: It oscillates mainly. It is recommended to close long positions and wait and see, and sell put options on pullbacks [169][172]. - **Pulp**: High inventory suppresses the pulp price, and the rebound is weak. It is recommended to operate within a range and buy on dips, and sell SP2605 - P - 5100 options [173][177]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market purchases based on rigid demand, and the upward movement is weak. It is recommended to short at high levels and sell OP2604 - C - 4250 options [177][180]. - **Logs**: The shipment improves, and log prices are strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [181][185]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The import of dark - colored rubber continues to decrease. It is recommended to hold long positions in RU and NR, and hold the NR2605 - RU2605 spread position [185][188]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The domestic automobile inventory is slightly reduced. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BR 05 contract and hold the BR2505 - RU2505 spread position [189][191].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series commodity prices are running strongly in the short - term due to the rise in crude oil prices, but the correction of crude oil prices has led to adjustments in rebar and hot - rolled coils. The overall supply and demand in the market are recovering, with both production and demand increasing, but the market has relatively weak demand expectations for this year and a pessimistic view of the fundamentals. The sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs, providing some support for futures prices. Technically, the futures prices are likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short - term [2]. - The iron ore market is entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products of 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average hot - metal output increased significantly. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has raised the production cost of iron ore. With the improvement of the weather, shipments have gradually recovered to a high level, the arrival volume has increased, and the port inventory has decreased. Technically, the futures prices have broken through important resistance levels, and an upward trend is emerging in the medium - term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market situation**: Affected by crude oil price fluctuations, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils have adjusted. The market may have entered the seasonal de - stocking stage, with increasing production and demand, but weak demand expectations [2]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions with a light position and treat it with a strong and volatile mindset [2]. - **Data details**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have different changes. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract is 3145 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3324 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day [2]. - **Basis and spreads**: The basis and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils have also changed. For example, the rebar main basis is 105 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Production and inventory**: The production of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils have increased. The inventory of five major varieties has decreased, including social and steel mill inventories [2]. - **Apparent demand**: The apparent demand for five major varieties has increased, with a week - on - week increase of 8.82% [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market situation**: The market is in the consumption peak season, with the output of five major steel products rebounding and the hot - metal output increasing. The rise in crude oil prices has increased production costs, shipments have recovered, and port inventory has decreased [4]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions with a light position and treat it with a strong and volatile mindset [4]. - **Data details**: - **Prices**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures have different changes. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 824 yuan/dry ton, up 0.61% from the previous day [4]. - **Basis and spreads**: The basis and futures month - to - month spreads of iron ore have also changed. For example, the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread is 25 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 1.5 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Shipments and inventories**: Australian iron ore shipments have increased, while Brazilian shipments have decreased. The port inventory has decreased, and the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills has increased [4]. 3.3 Industry News In February 2026, the global crude steel output was 141.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. From January to February 2026, the global crude steel output was 298.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. In February, China's steel output was 76.09 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts cause repeated disturbances. Coal and coke prices fluctuate sharply following crude oil prices. The ongoing US - Iran conflict and tight liquidity of some spot varieties make iron ore futures and spot prices strong. Affected by the expected energy - saving and emission - reduction production cuts in the industry, the manganese - silicon futures rose strongly but then fell back from the high level. Currently, steel inventories are at a high level, the peak - season expectations are still cautious, there is still expected pressure on coking coal warehouse receipts, and the supply - demand surplus pattern of glass and soda ash remains unchanged. After the sector prices rise, there is still a risk of decline. Attention should be paid to the disturbances from the geopolitical end and the iron ore supply end [1]. - Overall, the peak - season expectations are cautious, and the upward drive from the real - world end remains to be verified. There are still uncertainties in domestic and foreign macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances. If the geopolitical conflicts continue, the price support will be strong; if the conflicts ease, the prices may face a correction [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - The ongoing US - Iran conflict and tight liquidity of some spot varieties support iron ore futures and spot prices. The supply - demand remains loose, and it is difficult to see overall inventory reduction, which suppresses the upper - limit valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. In the short term, scrap steel arrivals remain stable overall, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow, and the fundamentals continue in a weak balance, with short - term oscillation expected [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - In the short term, the supply and demand of coke both increase, and the resumption speed of hot metal production may be faster. The price of the spot cost end continues to rise, and the expectation of a successful spot price increase for coke is strong. The futures are expected to follow the coking coal at the cost end. Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will still be the focus of coking coal futures trading. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the geopolitical conflicts ease and trading returns to the fundamentals, there will still be correction pressure on the coking coal and coke futures [2]. 3.3 Alloys - Under the current geopolitical environment, the logic of rising manganese ore import costs and the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming varieties are difficult to disprove. However, based on the fundamentals of loose supply - demand, high inventories, and difficult cost transmission for manganese - silicon, in the medium - to - long term, there is still a risk of correction for the valuation level of the futures higher than the cost. For ferrosilicon, the problem of over - capacity is still relatively serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn loose. In the medium - to - long term, there is still a risk of correction when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the cost [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expected disturbances in glass supply, but the inventories of middle - and downstream are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales cannot continue to improve, high inventories will always suppress prices. The short - term supply of soda ash is stable at a high level, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][6]. 3.5 Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: Cost support is strong. Pay attention to peak - season demand. Spot trading is average. After the weakening of environmental protection restrictions, iron - water production has rebounded rapidly, and electric - furnace production has gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. The overall supply of the five major steel products has rebounded from a low level, mainly in the building materials category. Demand shows resilience, and steel has started to reduce inventories, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high. Geopolitical risks increase energy valuation, and the cost end has strong support, but the high inventory and cautious peak - season expectations limit the upward drive of prices [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures are oscillating at a high level, with repeated geopolitical disturbances. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and arrivals have recovered. The US - Iran conflict affects the shipment and arrival rhythm, and high crude - oil prices increase shipping costs. The overall supply - demand is loose, but the pressure is difficult to be reflected in trading. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the new CEO of BHP, the US - Iran conflict, and the sensitivity of iron - ore prices [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals continue in a weak balance, and the spot price has a narrow - range correction. Scrap - steel arrivals are stable overall, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [10]. - **Coke**: Cost support is strong, and the bullish sentiment is strong. The futures follow coking coal and oscillate at a high level. After the lifting of restrictions, both supply and demand have recovered. The cost has been rising, and the expectation of a successful spot price increase is strong. The futures are expected to follow coking coal [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The auction prices continue to rise, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The energy substitution logic is the focus of trading. Domestic supply has room for a small increase, and imports remain high. After the lifting of restrictions, coke production has increased, and upstream coal - mine inventories have decreased. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall, but there is correction pressure if geopolitical conflicts ease [12]. - **Glass**: Real - world demand is weak, and production and sales have weakened month - on - month. Supply may be disturbed, and middle - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The supply - demand is in surplus, and high inventories suppress prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - demand is still in surplus, and macro factors dominate fluctuations. Supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply - surplus pattern will intensify in the long run, with the price center declining [15]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: Affected by the expected production cuts, the futures rose and then fell. The actual production - control intensity remains to be seen. The cost is expected to rise, and demand may improve, but the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and there is a risk of correction in the medium - to - long term [16]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The cost expectation is strong, but the valuation support is insufficient. The electricity - cost increase expectation is strong, and demand may improve. However, over - capacity is serious, and the supply - demand may turn loose. There is a risk of correction in the medium - to - long term [18].

Fixed Income Research - The overall yield of credit bonds has declined, with a significant decrease in the short to medium term, while the long end has mostly increased, with changes ranging from -2 BP to 1 BP [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds continues to grow, remaining at historically high levels, with corporate bonds maintaining zero issuance and a decrease in the issuance amount of targeted tools [2] - The net financing amount of credit bonds has increased, with corporate bonds and company bonds seeing net financing growth, while medium-term notes, short-term financing bonds, and targeted tools have decreased [2] - The trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market has increased, with a rise in most varieties except for corporate bonds [2] - The credit spread for short to medium-term notes and corporate bonds has narrowed, while the long-end spread has widened [2] - The demand for credit bonds is robust, suggesting a continuation of the recovery trend, although adjustments are expected due to various factors [2] Real Estate Policy - Continuous optimization of real estate policies by central and local governments is aimed at stabilizing the market, with a focus on controlling increments, reducing inventory, and improving supply [3] - The government work report emphasizes the goal of stabilizing the real estate market, indicating a shift from "breaking the problem" to "deepening" the new development model [3] - The recovery in sales will significantly impact bond valuations, and funds with higher risk tolerance may consider early positioning in companies showing improved financing and sales performance [3] Urban Investment Bonds - The likelihood of defaults in urban investment bonds is low, making them a key focus for credit bond allocation [4] - The reform of financing platforms is nearing completion, with a focus on resolving operational debt risks [4] Metal Industry Research - The steel industry is expected to see marginal improvements as the weather warms, but macroeconomic factors may still impact steel prices [6] - The copper market is currently influenced by limited industry fundamentals, with future attention on oil prices and geopolitical situations [6] - The aluminum market is affected by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, impacting production and export, which in turn affects aluminum prices [6] - Gold prices are currently suppressed by high oil prices, but there is potential for a rebound if geopolitical tensions ease [6] - Lithium prices are adjusting due to economic outlook concerns, but demand recovery could support prices [6] - Rare earth prices are expected to fluctuate due to macroeconomic factors and weak demand [6] Investment Ratings - The steel industry and non-ferrous metals industry are rated as "positive," with specific companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum rated for "increased holdings" [7]