Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the market liquidity situation on January 29, 2026, detailing the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Liquidity Overview - On January 29, 2026, the stock index sector had a trading volume of 1071.417 billion yuan, a +22.39% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1865.860 billion yuan, a +3.93% change; the trading - holding ratio was 57.34% [1]. - The treasury bond sector had a trading volume of 346.135 billion yuan, a +20.47% change; the holding amount was 876.678 billion yuan, a +2.26% change; the trading - holding ratio was 39.23% [1]. - The basic metal sector had a trading volume of 1384.210 billion yuan, a +14.59% change; the holding amount was 839.499 billion yuan, a +3.71% change; the trading - holding ratio was 162.85% [1]. - The precious metal sector had a trading volume of 1640.563 billion yuan, a - 7.46% change; the holding amount was 743.180 billion yuan, a +1.35% change; the trading - holding ratio was 238.08% [1]. - The energy - chemical sector had a trading volume of 669.654 billion yuan, a +4.95% change; the holding amount was 532.511 billion yuan, a +1.60% change; the trading - holding ratio was 111.36% [1]. - The agricultural product sector had a trading volume of 313.797 billion yuan, a +4.17% change; the holding amount was 653.433 billion yuan, a +0.73% change; the trading - holding ratio was 44.67% [1]. - The black building materials sector had a trading volume of 199.126 billion yuan, a +37.04% change; the holding amount was 316.419 billion yuan, a +0.23% change; the trading - holding ratio was 61.99% [2]. 3.2 Graphs and Data - There are multiple graphs showing various data such as the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, and price change rate of each sector and its varieties, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][6]

贵金属日报 | 2026-01-30 停摆危机再现 贵金属走出"过山车"行情 市场分析 贵金属市场再度上演"过山车"行情。1月29日，黄金、白银在亚市、欧市交易时段强势走高，现货黄金一度逼近5600 美元/盎司关口，现货白银则连续突破117、118、119、120和121美元/盎司五道关口。纽约市场交易时段金银价格 急转直下，现货黄金直线跳水跌近6%失守5100美元/盎司关口，现货白银则跌超8%失守107美元/盎司，但随后跌幅 双双收窄。美国方面，美国国会参议院在程序性投票中未能推进已获众议院通过的政府拨款法案，美国联邦政府 再次面临部分"停摆"的危机。美国数个联邦部门的运转资金将于1月30日耗尽。地缘方面，伊朗已于1月29日通过 高频无线电向过往船只发布通告，宣布将于2月1日至2日在霍尔木兹海峡举行军事演习，演习内容包括实弹射击。 整体看贵金属避险溢价支撑仍在。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-29，沪金主力合约开于1189.60元/克，收于1249.12元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动5.30%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1246.00元/克，收于1202 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a strong performance with a "17 consecutive days of gains," pushing the Shanghai Composite Index close to 4200 points, continuing the "long bull" market since September 24, 2025, and leading to a surge in new account openings [1][16] - Young investors, particularly those under 35, accounted for over 45% of new accounts in 2025, becoming a significant force in the investment market [1][16] - The rise of the internet-native generation, represented by those born in the 2000s, has led to a shift in investment behavior, with these young investors actively sharing their investment experiences on social media platforms [1][16] Group 2 - The 00s generation, as "digital natives," has grown up in an environment where information is instant, trading is online, and social interactions are networked, shaping their approach to investment [3][18] - The accessibility of online brokerage apps and low thresholds for investment, such as 1 yuan for ETF investments, have allowed young individuals to enter the capital market with small amounts of money [3][18] - Compared to previous generations, the 00s have a more integrated view of investment as part of life, influenced by social media and online content rather than traditional financial news [3][18] Group 3 - A case study of a university student, Li Yang, illustrates the typical investment journey of the 00s, starting with small investments and gradually learning to manage risks and establish rules for trading [4][20] - Li Yang's experience reflects a broader trend among young investors who are learning to balance emotional responses with disciplined investment strategies [4][20] - The shift from chasing emotions to establishing rules is a common lesson learned by young investors in the current market environment [4][20] Group 4 - As young investors deepen their understanding of the capital market, they are transitioning from single-category investments to diversified portfolios, exploring various asset classes including index funds, foreign currency investments, and commodities [6][22] - The use of online resources and platforms for learning investment strategies is prevalent among the 00s, indicating a strong adaptability and willingness to learn [6][22] - Kendra, a young investor, exemplifies this trend by developing a systematic investment methodology and adapting her strategies based on market experiences [7][23] Group 5 - Kendra's investment approach emphasizes technical analysis and a focus on market dynamics rather than relying solely on fundamental news, showcasing a shift in investment philosophy among young investors [9][25] - The importance of risk management and disciplined investment practices is highlighted, with Kendra implementing strict stop-loss measures to mitigate potential losses [11][27] - The tendency for young investors to engage in high-risk investments without adequate strategy underscores the need for a balanced approach to asset allocation [13][29] Group 6 - The emotional aspect of investing is significant for the 00s, with many using social media and cultural references to process their experiences in the market [11][27] - Despite understanding the concept of stop-loss, executing it remains a challenge for many young investors, often leading to larger losses due to emotional decision-making [12][28] - The journey of investing for the 00s is characterized by early trial and error, allowing them to learn valuable lessons in a less pressured environment [15][31]

国债期货日报 | 2026-01-30 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 债市逐渐修复，国债期货大多收涨 财政：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力 不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更 加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发 行提速带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期 对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地。 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-01-30 关注美国12月PPI数据和中国1月官方制造业PMI 市场分析 通胀叙事大趋势不改。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内 卷式"竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。后续继续提振 消费，以及推进"反内卷"的大方向并未发生变化，未来物价回升路径仍需关注供给侧的政策方向。1月15日，央行 宣布下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，各类再贷款一年期利率降至1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步 调整。并强调，今年降准降息还有一定空间，人民币汇率预计将继续双向浮动，保持弹性。1 月 20 日，财政部官 网集中发布 5 个重要政策文件，涵盖个人消费贷款、设备更新、中小微企业贷款、服务业经营主体贷款及民间投 资专项担保五大领域，以 "延长期限、扩大范围、提高标准" 为核心导向，通过财政贴息与担保支持，降低融资成 本、激发市场活力，助力扩大内需与经济高质量发展。此外，伊朗和委内瑞拉的地缘局势骤紧，在民粹主义和贸 易保护主义思潮下，全球争夺矿产和能源资源的局势明朗。同时，特朗普近期就格陵兰岛 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the A-share market showed an upward trend with some fluctuations, and index performance varied. The stock index futures basis converged significantly, and the near-month contracts were in full premium. The market is expected to continue its upward trend after short-term volatility, supported by economic recovery [4][5][46] Summary by Relevant Catalog First Part: Preface Summary - **Market Review**: In January, the A-share market trended upward with fluctuations, and the performance of different indexes varied. The stock index futures basis converged significantly, especially for IC near-month contracts and IM current contracts, which showed continuous premiums. Trading volume and open interest increased significantly, indicating market optimism [4] - **Market Outlook**: Despite market fluctuations, the policy is clearly oriented towards stability and improvement. Economic data boosts confidence, and listed companies' performance forecasts are positive. The market has strong support, so the stock index is expected to continue to rise after short-term volatility [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral trading: expect an upward trend; Arbitrage: long IM/IC2609 contracts + short ETFs; Options: bull spread strategy [6] Second Part: January Market Review - **Stock Market - Upward with Fluctuations and Differentiated Rhythms**: In January, the A-share market trended upward with fluctuations, and the performance of different indexes varied. By January 29, the monthly increase of the CSI 300 index was 2.67%, the SSE 50 index rose 2.63%, the CSI 500 index rose 14.1%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 9.7%. Gold, non-ferrous metals, and oil and gas sectors led the gains, while banks, transportation, and agricultural products were the three declining sectors. Small-cap stocks were relatively more active [10][12] - **Stock Index Futures - Basis Convergence and Full Premium in Near-Month Contracts**: In January, the basis of stock index futures converged significantly compared to the previous month. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased significantly, especially for IC. The basis convergence significantly reduced the cost of short rollover for stock index futures. The net short position ratio of major seats increased [15][19][26] Third Part: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - **Data Boost Confidence**: In 2025, China's GDP exceeded 140 trillion yuan for the first time, with a 5.0% year-on-year increase. The PMI data in December returned above 50, indicating economic recovery. The CPI reached its highest level since March 2023, and the PPI showed improvement. China has emerged from the shadow of deflation, and the economic fundamentals are improving [30][31][36] - **Stable Policy Guidance**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining stability in the capital market in 2026. Since January, the market has cooled down, and the stability expectation has increased, laying a foundation for the annual market [37] - **Good Market Acceptance**: In January, ETF funds showed significant trading volume. Although there were large net redemptions, the overall stock index did not decline significantly, indicating strong market support [38][39][42] - **Positive Annual Report Forecasts**: As of January 29, 2026, 1,203 out of 2,106 listed companies that had released 2025 performance forecasts showed positive changes, accounting for 57%. The overall performance of listed companies is improving, which is a positive factor for the market [43][45] - **Future Strategies**: The stock index is expected to continue its upward trend after short-term volatility, supported by economic recovery [46]

现货黄金价格周五亚洲时段暴跌超过4%，一度失守5200美元关口。国内期货市场上，沪金、沪银主力合约跌幅 均超过2%，而前期涨势更为凶猛的铂金和钯金期货，盘中跌幅分别扩大至10%和7%。 沃什再度成为美联储主席热门人选，由于沃什长期以偏鹰派立场著称，这一预期迅速推升美元和美债收益率， 并对商品价格形成压制。内外盘期货普遍下行，贵金属成为跌幅最为集中的品种。 美东时间1月29日晚间，美国总统特朗普表示，将于周五上午（北京时间今晚）宣布美联储主席提名人选。据媒 体最新报道，特朗普政府正筹备提名沃什出任美联储主席。 据德银分析沃什若当选美联储主席，其政策主张可能呈现"降息与缩表并行"的独特组合。投资者开始定价一个可 能更快收紧流动性的未来，周五亚太时段，美元指数快速走强，日内涨0.43%。 国内期货市场上，沪金、沪银主力合约跌幅均超过2%，而前期涨势更为凶猛的铂金和钯金期货，盘中跌幅分别 扩大至10%和7%。 | 名称 | 现价 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | NYMEX铅 | 1915.00d | -103.60 | -5.13% | | GFEX铂 | 640.20 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Canola Oil [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Non - ferrous Metals, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum - Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Other Metals, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Polyester Staple Fiber, Styrene, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, SS, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The stock index is expected to have limited short - term shock adjustment space and mainly show a shock - strong trend [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and the prices of copper and aluminum are rising. The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing, and there is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level [1]. - The supply of stainless - steel raw materials is unstable, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar has limited incremental supply in the first quarter, and there is upward potential for tin prices [1]. - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the prices of precious metals have risen strongly, but short - term fluctuations are severe. The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices [1]. - The production of industrial silicon in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has decreased [1]. - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly [1]. - The expected increase in rebar and iron - ore prices is not strong, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The supply and demand of other metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [1]. - The supply of soda ash is more relaxed in the medium term, and the price is under pressure. The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract, and the previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1]. - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the price of palm oil is expected to be shock - strong. The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and the price is bullish [1]. - The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving force [1]. - The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The upward momentum of corn prices before the holiday is insufficient [1]. - The Brazilian soybean supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up the soybean - meal price. The paper - pulp price has fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The price of logs is expected to have limited further decline space and will fluctuate within a certain range. The pig - production capacity needs to be further released [1]. - Due to OPEC+ suspending production increase, tense Middle - East geopolitics, and the US cold wave, the price of crude oil is affected [1]. - Bitumen follows the trend of crude oil, and its profit is relatively high. Shanghai rubber is driven by cost and market sentiment to rise [1]. - The fundamentals of BR rubber are mixed, with short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - long - term upward expectations. The PTA and polyester staple - fiber markets are affected by the strong PX market [1]. - The price of styrene has rebounded, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The methanol market is affected by the Iranian situation and downstream feedback [1]. - The supply of PE and PP is under pressure, and the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. The SS market fundamentals are weak [1]. - The LPG market is affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to weaken. The freight rate of container shipping on European routes has peaked and fallen before the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The short - term shock adjustment space is limited, and it will mainly show a shock - strong trend [1] Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Copper - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and copper prices have risen further [1] Aluminum - Recently, the industrial drive is limited, but the decline of the US dollar index supports the price. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, which causes concerns about the supply side, aluminum prices are running strongly [1] Alumina - The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the industrial situation is weak. The price is under pressure, but it is currently near the cost line and is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Recently, the North American cold wave has increased energy prices, which is unfavorable for the resumption of overseas smelters. There is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices [1] Non - ferrous Metals - The market risk preference has recovered, which boosts non - ferrous metals. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level, still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1] Stainless Steel - The supply of raw - material nickel - iron prices has been rising continuously, the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, the speed of social - inventory reduction has slowed down, and the steel mills' production schedule in January has increased. The supply - side disturbances are repeated, and the stainless - steel futures are oscillating at a high level [1] Tin - In the short term, the market sentiment is changeable. Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is a negative news, the incremental supply of tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. Under the situation of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is upward potential for tin prices [1] Precious Metals - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the demand for hedging and the wave of de - dollarization have accelerated, and the prices of precious metals have risen strongly again. However, as the market sentiment has fermented to the extreme, the prices of gold and silver have plunged at a high level, with severe short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with a light position [1] Platinum - Palladium - The macro - drive has weakened, and the liquidity is relatively insufficient, resulting in large price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. There is still a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. It is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices or focus on the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [1] Industrial Silicon - The production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] Polysilicon - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, the energy - storage demand is strong, there is a rush for battery exports, and the price has risen significantly [1] Lithium Carbonate - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the sentiment has not been smoothly transmitted to the spot market. The upward momentum is insufficient [1] Rebar - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is light, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to close the long - single position and participate in the cash - and - carry arbitrage [1] Iron Ore - There is sector rotation, but the upward pressure on iron - ore prices is obvious. It is not recommended to chase up at this position [1] Other Metals - There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply and demand continue to be weak, but energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may have an impact on the supply [1] Soda Ash - It mainly follows the trend of glass. The medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract. After the first - round price increase of coke was shelved on Monday, funds began to anticipate the downstream's active de - stocking after the holiday. The short - position increased, and the price of coking - coal 05 broke through the previous important multi - empty boundary and support levels. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1] Coke - The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Palm Oil - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to be shock - strong [1] Soybean Oil - The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1] Canola Oil - Due to the influence of the US, the relationship between China and Canada is still uncertain, the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, and the short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1] Cotton - The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate is low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "supported but lack of driving force" [1] Sugar - Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] Corn - Before the holiday, the stocking is almost over, the regional price difference is at a low level, and the domestic grain - reserve inventory is sufficient. The funds have taken profit, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and回调 before the holiday [1] Soybean Meal - In February, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion has postponed the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums. Unilaterally, there are no conditions for a significant trend - like increase. Currently, the domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing profit is at a high level, and from the perspective of crushing profit, the valuation of the soybean - meal futures is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [1] Pulp - Today, the pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - market, but it has not broken through the oscillation range. The short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Logs - The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebounding recently, and the futures price is expected to have limited further decline space. However, the January overseas offer has still slightly decreased, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack upward - driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] Pigs - Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the slaughter weight not fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and the cold wave in the US has increased energy demand [1] Bitumen - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th - Five - Year Plan rush - work demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of bitumen is relatively high [1] Shanghai Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the sharp rise of synthetic rubber has driven the sector to strengthen, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish [1] BR Rubber - The cost - end butadiene still has strong bottom support, and the overseas cracking - device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants has been severely lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, and the short - term downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. Fundamentally, butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring - Festival inventory reduction of cis - butadiene rubber and the performance of butadiene inventory. The short - term futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation and a callback, and there is an upward expectation for BR in the medium - long term [1] PTA - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has had a limited negative feedback on PTA [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the price of polyester staple fiber continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - There is news that the styrene plant in the Middle East has shut down. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have improved marginally, the styrene futures price has rebounded rapidly. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, supported by the increase in domestic export opportunities and the rise of domestic prices. The styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the economy has been slightly repaired. The styrene inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory pressure has been reduced [1] Methanol - Methanol is generally affected by the situation in Iran, and it is expected that the future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, with both long and short factors intertwined. The downstream MTO leading plant has shut down, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. Affected by the cold air, the freight in the inland area has increased, and the northwest enterprises have a large pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1] PE - The overseas ethylene glycol price has rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch the production of a 900,000 - ton EG production line in mid - February due to profit reasons. Driven by this news, the speculative demand in the market has significantly increased [1] PP - There are few maintenance operations, the operation load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The price has returned to a reasonable range. The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase [1] PVC - In 2026, the global new production capacity is relatively small, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing for exports later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the elimination of PVC production capacity [1] SS - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and the futures price is expected to react to the fundamentals again. The fundamentals are weak, and the absolute price is at a low level. The factory is facing continuous inventory accumulation, and the spot price may still be reduced [1] LPG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the futures sentiment will switch between fundamentals and sentiment. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, the futures price is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to gradually widen. The domestic PDH operation rate has declined, the profit is expected to be seasonally repaired, the global civil - combustion rigid demand is stable, the demand for MTBE

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Core Views - The steel market is in a seasonal off - peak, with limited demand support, and the strategy is to treat it with a sideways thinking. The hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for spot - futures positions, and the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread can still be rolled [2]. - The price of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese may fluctuate strongly in the short term due to market sentiment, although the fundamentals continue to be under pressure with high supply and weak demand [3]. - The coking coal and coke market has limited upward drive. After the first round of coke price increase is implemented and there is speculation in related materials, pay attention to cashing in spot at high prices and shorting opportunities on the futures market [5]. - Iron ore is in a short - term sideways - strong pattern, but there is obvious upward pressure in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term low - buying and long - term short - selling at pressure levels are recommended [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On January 29th, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3203.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 35.00 yuan (1.10%); HC2610 closed at 3330.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 30.00 yuan (0.91%); J2609 closed at 1791.50 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan (2.87%); JM2609 closed at 1242.50 yuan/ton with a gain of 41.00 yuan (3.41%). For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3157.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 35.00 yuan (1.12%); HC2605 closed at 3308.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 26.00 yuan (0.79%); J2605 closed at 1723.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 53.50 yuan (3.20%); JM2605 closed at 1165.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 44.00 yuan (3.93%) [1]. - The cross - month spreads on January 29th: RB2605 - 2610 was - 46.00 yuan/ton; HC2605 - 2610 was - 22.00 yuan/ton; 12605 - 2609 was 19.50 yuan/ton; J2605 - 2609 was - 68.50 yuan/ton; JM2605 - 2609 was - 77.50 yuan/ton [1]. - The spreads/ratios/profits on the January 29th for the main contracts: the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 151.00 yuan/ton; the rebar to iron ore ratio was 3.95; the coal to coke ratio was 1.48; the rebar futures profit was - 79.78 yuan/ton; the coking futures profit was 173.55 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - On January 29th, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3280.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3190.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3410.00 yuan/ton with no change; Tangshan billet was 2950.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 20.00 yuan; the Platts Index was 104.15 with a decrease of 1.45 [1]. - Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3330.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3300.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 30.00 yuan; the billet - to - product spread was 330.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 30.00 yuan; Rizhao Port's PB powder was 797.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 5.00 yuan [1]. - Qingdao Port's Super Special powder was 666.00 yuan/ton with a decrease of 1.00 yuan; Ganqimaodu's coking refined coal was 1235.00 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke (ex - warehouse) was 1430.00 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port's PB was 799.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 6.00 yuan [1]. - The basis on January 29th: HC main contract was 2.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 22.00 yuan; RB main contract was 123.00 yuan/ton with a decrease of 16.00 yuan; J main contract was - 150.37 yuan/ton with a decrease of 39.00 yuan; JM main contract was 100.00 yuan/ton with a decrease of 30.50 yuan [1]. Steel - The steel market is in a seasonal off - peak. The demand support is limited. The price initiative to sell under pressure is not large. The steel mills have the willingness to resume production, but the actual strength and rhythm may be slow. Traders are not willing to do open - position winter storage and it is more suitable to participate in the basis way. The strategy is to treat it with a sideways thinking, and the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread can be rolled [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - With the warming of market sentiment, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate upward. The direct and terminal demand is weak and difficult to improve in the short - term. The alloy plants' production is still high with poor profits, and the medium - term over - supply pressure remains. The macro - policies are mainly favorable. In the short - term, the prices may fluctuate strongly [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, but the market is not optimistic about the future. The downstream procurement is cautious. The coking coal online auction has many unsold lots. The futures market is affected by the relaxation of the "three red lines" for real - estate enterprises and the stock market rotation. The steel market is in the off - peak season, with weak industrial data. The coal mine supply is gradually recovering, and the downstream has pre - holiday replenishment, but the upward drive for prices is limited. After the short - term rebound, pay attention to cashing in spot at high prices and shorting opportunities on the futures market [5]. Iron Ore - The steel mills' in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expectation of steel mills' accelerated resumption of production in February and pre - holiday replenishment support the short - term high price. After the replenishment expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will be the source of pressure. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and short at pressure levels in the long - term [6].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 隔夜内外铜价冲高后快速回落，特别是 LME 铜盘中一度涨幅达到 10%，国内现货精炼 | | | | 铜进口亏损大幅收敛，窗口接近打开。宏观方面，美国总统特朗普表示，下周将宣布美 | | | | 联储主席人选，利率应比当前水平低两到三个百分点。美国联邦政府再次面临关门危险， | | | | 昨晚美参院关键投票未能推进拨款法案，但特朗普称接近达成协议避免政府关门。国内 | | | | 方面，有消息称，多家房地产企业已不再被监管部门要求每月上报"三道红线"相关数 | | | 据，有利于后续房地产市场平稳发展。库存方面，LME 库存增加 2150 吨至 176075 | 吨； | | 铜 | Comex 库存增加 2590 吨至 521757 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 3590 吨 151628 吨，BC | 铜维持 | | | 11141 | 吨。昨日内外铜价表现来看，突然的发力有贵金属热度的传导，也标志着铜价首 | | | 次突破每吨 1.4 | 万美元的 ...