Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][37] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown a comprehensive rebound, with the agricultural index rising by 0.99%, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [5][13] - The pig price is currently operating at a slight profit, with production capacity reduction slowing down. The average price of live pigs as of May 9 is 14.73 CNY/kg, showing minor fluctuations [6][17] - The white feather chicken market is experiencing stable chick prices, with a focus on domestic breeding due to uncertainties in overseas imports [28] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the agricultural sector is 2606.49, with a 52-week high of 2927.53 and a low of 2110.64 [2] Market Performance - The agricultural sector's index has increased by 0.99%, while the broader market indices like the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index have risen by 2.00% and 1.92%, respectively [13][14] Livestock Industry Tracking Pig Industry - The average price of live pigs has remained stable between 14.6 and 14.9 CNY/kg since April, with a slight upward shift due to increased second-time fattening [6][17] - As of May 9, self-breeding pig farmers are earning approximately 84 CNY per head, while those purchasing piglets are making about 58 CNY [18][19] - The breeding stock has shown a slight increase, with April's data indicating a 0.41% rise in breeding sows [19][20] White Feather Chicken - As of May 9, the price of white feather chicken chicks is 3.10 CNY per chick, with an average profit of 0.2 CNY per chick [28] - The market is currently characterized by a significant disparity, with high chick prices causing resistance among farmers due to rising feed costs [28] Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly decreased to 6150 CNY/ton, while corn prices have increased to 2306 CNY/ton, reflecting a mixed trend in crop prices [32][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][37] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown a comprehensive rebound, but the growth in the agricultural sector is relatively small, with the agricultural index rising by 0.99%, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [5][13] - The pig price is operating at a micro-profit level, with production capacity reduction slowing down. The average price of pigs as of May 9 is 14.73 CNY/kg, showing slight upward movement due to increased frequency of secondary fattening [6][17] - The white feather chicken market is experiencing stable chick prices, with the price at 3.10 CNY/chick as of May 9, while the average profit per chick is 0.2 CNY [28] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 2606.49, with a 52-week high of 2927.53 and a low of 2110.64 [2] Market Performance - The agricultural sector index has increased by 0.99%, while the broader market indices such as the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index have risen by 2.00% and 1.92%, respectively [13][14] Livestock Industry Tracking Pig Industry - The average price of pigs has remained stable between 14.6 and 14.9 CNY/kg since April, with a slight upward shift in average price due to increased secondary fattening [6][17] - As of May 9, self-breeding and self-raising pigs have an average profit of approximately 84 CNY per head, while purchased piglets yield a profit of 58 CNY [18][19] - The breeding stock has shown slight fluctuations, with April data indicating a 0.41% increase in breeding sows [19][20] White Feather Chicken - The chick price remains stable, with a current price of 3.10 CNY/chick and a meat chicken price of 3.75 CNY/kg [28] - The market is experiencing significant polarization, with high chick prices causing resistance from the breeding sector due to rising feed costs [28] Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly decreased to 6150 CNY/ton, while corn prices have increased to 2306 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 49 CNY/ton [32]

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 05 月 13 日 猪价淡季不淡，上市猪企实现扭亏 生猪养殖行业 2024 年报以及 25Q1 一季报总结 消费品/农林牧渔 25Q1，猪价整体淡季不淡、饲料价格下降、仔猪占比提升共同推动上市猪企 实现扭亏，而行业商品猪养殖成本方差仍大，优质猪企 25 年仍有望凭借低成 本优势获取可观利润、持续修复资产负债表。重点推荐牧原股份、温氏股份， 建议关注神农集团、东瑞股份等。 ❑ 风险提示：畜禽及粮食价格波动超预期，突发大规模不可控疾病，极端天 气，重大食品安全事件，上市公司销量/成本不达预期等。 重点公司主要财务指标 | 公司简称 | 公司代码 | 市值 | 24EPS | 25EPS | 25PE | PB | 投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 002714.SZ | 214.4 | 3.27 | 3.86 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 强烈推荐 | | 温氏股份 | 300498.SZ | 110.7 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 12.1 | 2.6 | 强烈推荐 ...

2025/5/12 1 图：生猪养殖周期示意图 图：猪价指引产能导致周期往复 2 数据来源：国金证券研究所整理 • 生产特性：生猪的生长速度无法加快，从能繁母猪配种开始生产需要10个月的时间，通过后备时间更长；而市面上 补充后备母猪为50-80KG，需要饲养至120KG以上才可以开始配种，猪价指导生产，盈利增产/亏损减产，现今亦然 如此而养殖户在决策上存在一定的时滞性， • 时滞性的来源： • 1.对后市的预期（预期乐观⬆/悲观⬇） • 2.养殖户手中的资金(宽松⬆/紧张⬇) • 以上特点使得盈利情况指引未来产能方向，亏损时间越长产能去化越充分，非瘟前每一轮周期上行多在2年左右。 图：生猪繁育体系示意图 数据来源：国金证券研究所整理 3 图：历史猪周期总结（元/公斤） | | 周期跨度 | 上行区间 | 下行区间 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 最高价 | 最低价 | 波动幅度 | | 第一轮 | 2006/5-2010/4 | 2006/5-2008/3 | 2008/4-2010/4 | 17.45 | 6.76 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 13 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，12 日生猪主力 2509 合约小幅低开后震荡走低，尾盘收阴，最高 13930 元/吨，最低 13855 元/吨，收盘报 13870 元/吨，较 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for the pig industry is "oscillating," with a "neutral" rating for supply, a "bearish" rating for demand, a "neutral" rating for profit, and a "bullish" rating for price and volume [3] Core Viewpoints - The pig industry may enter a pressure cycle in 2025, and prices will face long - term downward pressure, but there may be short - term support for pig prices in the second quarter due to disease disturbances and breeding sentiment [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - This week, the basis of live pigs increased slightly, and the futures were in a slight discount state, limiting the downward space. The spread between near - and far - term live pig futures increased slightly and was at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The net short positions of institutional investors in the main live pig futures contract were decreasing [3] Supply Analysis - The average weight of commercial pig sales of sample breeding enterprises this week was basically flat, the spread between standard and fat pigs widened slightly, and the proportion of large pigs continued to increase. Since this year, the spread between near - and far - term live pig futures has remained high, and the term structure is almost horizontal, reflecting the market's balanced expectation of the supply - demand relationship. In the long - term, the hedging behavior dominated by funds in the pig industry strengthens the linkage between futures and spot, and the pricing of long - term futures contracts mainly revolves around costs. The near - term contracts have significantly enhanced resistance to decline due to disease disturbances and breeding sentiment [3] Demand Analysis - This week, slaughter orders decreased slightly, slaughter profits increased slightly, the fresh meat efficiency was basically flat, and the frozen product inventory rebounded slightly and was at a low level in the same period of the past four years. After the May Day holiday, pork purchases and sales returned to rationality, the purchasing and sales enthusiasm in cities decreased, orders of mainstream slaughtering enterprises decreased, and the operating rate gradually declined [3] Profit Analysis - The self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit is around the break - even point, and the pig - grain ratio is significantly higher than the average level in the same period of the past four years. In 2024, Muyuan Co., Ltd. had a net profit of 17.881 billion yuan, ranking first, with a year - on - year increase of 519.42%. In 2024, Muyuan significantly reduced the pig breeding cost from 15.8 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 13 yuan/kg in December, with an average annual breeding cost of about 14 yuan/kg. In 2025, Muyuan further reduced the cost, and the full cost of pig breeding in March has dropped to 12.5 yuan/kg, with a target of reducing the average annual cost to 12 yuan/kg in 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant role of agricultural technology innovation in modernizing agriculture, emphasizing the importance of enhancing the innovation ecosystem and supporting agricultural self-sufficiency [11] - In the pig farming sector, the average price of pigs is currently fluctuating around 14.5-15 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease observed this week [12] - The report suggests that the commercialization of genetically modified crops will accelerate, which is expected to improve self-sufficiency in key varieties [11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and other departments have issued an implementation opinion to enhance the agricultural technology innovation system, focusing on eight key tasks [11] - Companies like Beidahuang and Su-Kun Agricultural Development are expected to benefit from these initiatives [11] Pig Farming - The average price of external three yuan pigs is 14.80 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week change of -0.05% [12] - The number of breeding sows is 40.39 million, showing a slight decrease of 0.66% [12] - The report recommends focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, such as Jingji Zhino, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff [12] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies in the planting sector include Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Qianyuan High-Tech [11] - In the pig farming sector, companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Haida Group are highlighted for their potential benefits [12] - The report also mentions companies in the animal health sector, such as Jinhai Biological and Zhongmu Co., which are expected to gain from market trends [12]

Core Viewpoint - TianKang Biological has shown significant growth in its pig farming business, with a notable increase in sales and profitability in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a strong recovery in the industry [1][2][3]. Sales Performance - In April 2025, TianKang sold 244,700 pigs, a month-on-month decrease of 3.93% but a year-on-year increase of 1.58% [1]. - The sales revenue for April reached 380 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 1.06% and year-on-year stability [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to April 2025, the company sold 1,055,400 pigs, an 18.84% increase compared to the same period last year, with total sales revenue of 1.557 billion yuan, up 11.61% year-on-year [1]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for the pig farming sector improved significantly from -13.82% in 2023 to 14.61% in 2024, with further profitability expected in Q1 2025 [2]. - The total cost of pig farming for the company was 13.01 yuan/kg in Q1, with costs dropping below 13 yuan/kg in January and March [2]. - Comparatively, leading competitors like Muyuan and Wens have also seen reductions in their farming costs, indicating a competitive landscape [2]. Dividend and Valuation - TianKang's dividend distribution plan for 2024 proposes a payout of 2.2 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend rate close to 50%, positioning it as a leader in the industry [3]. - The latest dividend yield stands at 3.46%, making it the second highest in the pig farming sector, just behind Muyuan [3][4]. - The valuation of pig farming stocks is currently at historical lows, suggesting potential for long-term investment growth [3]. Future Growth Potential - The company plans significant capital expenditures in pig farming and minor upgrades in feed business, with a new breeding project expected to be operational by the second half of the year [8]. - The feed business aims to reach a sales target of 5 million tons within 3-5 years, indicating a strategic growth plan [8]. - In the animal vaccine sector, the company is innovating its sales model and targeting international markets, particularly in Central Asia and Southeast Asia, to enhance its long-term growth prospects [8]. Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, plans to increase its stake in TianKang, demonstrating confidence in the company's future development [7].

"浙江猪王"天邦食品的重整取得了重要进展。 21世纪经济报道记者 董鹏 成都报道 根据近期公告，该公司已经与厦门建发物产有限公司（下称"建发物产"）、南宁漓源粮油饲料有限公司 （下称"南宁漓源"）签署《重整投资协议》，同时法院也批准其预重整再次延长至2025年11月9日。 以上两家公司均为产业投资者，具体业务涉及油脂油料、饲料原料和生猪养殖等领域，属于天邦食品的 上游和同行。 另据相关投资协议，在重整完成后，建发物产、南宁漓源将分别持有天邦食品2亿股，低于公司实控人 张邦辉的持股数量，所以也不会导致公司实控人变更。 需要指出的是，相较于上一轮猪周期进行重整的正邦科技、*ST傲农，天邦食品是主动申请重整，公司 资产质地较好，债务问题也没有特别严重。 仅以养殖企业的重要评价指标为例，2025年一季度，天邦食品生猪育肥完全成本13.62元/公斤，如果剔 除空栏费，其完全成本可以低至13.14元/公斤，公司还是少数几家出栏量达到过700万头的大型养殖企 业。 放在A股行业内部，天邦食品的成本、出栏量虽然无法与牧原股份等行业龙头相比，但是占据一个二线 主力的名额问题不大，这可能也是能够吸引到上述投资人的原因。 重整投资 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant role of agricultural technology innovation in modernizing agriculture, emphasizing the need for a structured and collaborative innovation system [11] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key varieties [11] - In the pig farming sector, the average price of pigs is currently fluctuating around 14.5-15 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease observed [12] - The report suggests that while short-term consumer demand is recovering, supply remains relatively loose, but prices may exceed expectations in the second half of 2025 due to slow recovery in production capacity [12] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and other departments have issued an implementation opinion to enhance the agricultural technology innovation system, focusing on eight key tasks [11] - The report identifies potential beneficiaries in the planting sector, including Beidahuang and Su-Kun Agricultural Development, and recommends leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [11] 2. Pig Farming - The average price of external three yuan pigs is 14.80 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week change of -0.05% [12] - As of March 2025, the number of breeding sows in China is 40.39 million, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous month [12] - The report forecasts that pig prices may exceed expectations in the latter half of 2025 due to slow recovery in production capacity [12] 3. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies in the pig farming sector include Jingji Zhino, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff [12] - In the feed sector, Haida Group is highlighted, while companies in the animal health sector such as Jinhai Biological, Bio-Stock, and Placo are expected to benefit [12] 4. Market Performance - The agricultural sector index increased by 0.99% during the week, with notable gains in the aquaculture and planting sectors [14] - The report provides detailed tracking of key agricultural product prices, including corn, wheat, and soybeans, indicating price trends and changes [24][27][38]