Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report - **Fats and Oils Industry**: The market has a bearish outlook on Malaysian palm oil inventory, and there is pressure for further decline in the external palm oil market. The domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and the basis price may fluctuate within a certain range [1]. - **Sugar Industry**: The global sugar supply is abundant, and the raw sugar price remains weak. The domestic sugar market is affected by import quotas and may experience weak price fluctuations [3]. - **Pig Industry**: The pig price is expected to be moderately strong in November, and the market has entered a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and be cautiously bullish on single - side operations [5]. - **Cotton Industry**: The short - term cotton price may fluctuate within a range due to cost support and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Corn Industry**: The short - term corn supply is relatively stable, and the price may adjust in a range. It will be weak when the selling pressure emerges [8]. - **Meal Industry**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but there is strong cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. - **Egg Industry**: The egg supply pressure remains, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, soybean oil prices were stable, palm oil prices had minor fluctuations, and rapeseed oil prices increased slightly [1]. - **Market Situation**: Malaysian palm oil production increased in October, and the market has a bearish view on its inventory. The domestic soybean oil supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak [1]. Sugar Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, sugar futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices in some regions changed. The raw sugar price is at a five - year low [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory decreased [3]. Pig Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices in some regions increased [5]. - **Market Situation**: The market's reluctance to sell increased, and the planned November slaughter volume will slow down, which may support the pig price [5]. Cotton Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, cotton futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices increased slightly [7]. - **Industry Situation**: Industrial and commercial inventories increased, and textile exports decreased [7]. Corn Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, corn futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices in some regions increased [8]. - **Market Situation**: The selling pressure of corn is expected to increase, and the demand side is cautious in purchasing [8]. Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean prices had minor fluctuations [12]. - **Market Situation**: The demand for US soybeans is not strong, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but there is cost support [12]. Egg Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, egg futures prices changed, and spot prices increased [15]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of eggs is under pressure, and the demand is average [15].

Core Insights - Ningbo has launched the "Ningbo Nonghao" quality traceability system as part of its Green Food Promotion Month, aiming to enhance the transparency and quality of local agricultural products [1][2] - The initiative is a response to national efforts in promoting green food and signifies a step towards ensuring food safety and increasing the market recognition of high-quality agricultural products [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The Green Food Promotion Month will last for two months, featuring the distribution of a guidebook on green quality agricultural products and the launch of the traceability system [1] - Four companies were recognized for their inclusion in the national green food label directory, and 20 agricultural entities showcased their products at the event [1] Group 2: Agricultural Quality and Safety - Ningbo is committed to ensuring food safety by implementing strict standards and regulations, enhancing the supply and quality of green agricultural products [2] - The city has developed a digital traceability system that allows consumers to access detailed information about agricultural products through a unified identification code [2] Group 3: Industry Development - Currently, Ningbo has 257 green food enterprises and 375 certified products, with a total annual output value of nearly 5 billion [3] - The city aims to optimize the structure of green food products and improve the effectiveness of certification processes while enhancing the overall agricultural industry development [3]

【国富豆系研究周报】CBOT 大豆震荡略涨，关注国内进口大豆采购 情况 20251110 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月10日 07:20 上海 油脂油料周度行情 国量的货 目 录 1. 大豆 图片来源:文华财经 外盘方面,截至11月7日收盘,CBOT 大豆 01 合约收于 1117.25 美分 /蒲式耳,较前一周上涨 0.20%。本周 CBOT 大豆价格小幅上涨,一方面, 中美贸易关系预期改善仍支撑美豆价格;另一方面,美豆当周出口检验累 计同比降幅持续走扩以及市场预期美豆单产状况良好对盘面价格有所压制。 此外美豆粕价格下跌以及当前南美大豆主产区天气状况利于大豆播种和生 长亦拖累美豆价格走势。产量端,市场预期美豆单产处于 53.0 蒲/英亩以 上水平,大豆丰产预期偏强。出口端,美豆当周出口检验量虽符合预期, 但出口检验累计同比降幅继续走扩,美豆出口表现依旧疲弱对价格有所打 压。关注 NASS 即将公布的作物产量报告和全球农业供需报告、南美大豆主 2 公众号·国富研究 图:CBOT美豆行情 | r 行情回顾 | | --- | | 1. 大豆 | | 2. 豆粕 3 | | 3. 豆油 | | 二、产区天 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is experiencing accelerated declines in breeding stock, with a reported decrease of 0.77% in October compared to the previous month. The average price of pork in October was 11.69 yuan/kg, down 1.41% month-on-month, indicating a potential ongoing capacity reduction in the industry [5][18] - The policy direction in the industry is shifting towards protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation, suggesting that future growth stocks will focus more on technological content and innovative models [6][19] - The poultry sector is facing a persistent contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," leading to losses that may force breeding farms to reduce production capacity [7][19] - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group due to its management effectiveness and expected growth in production capacity [8][20] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - In October, the breeding stock decreased by 0.77%, with a significant increase in the culling of sows by approximately 12.41%. The industry is expected to enter a phase of active capacity reduction as prices fall below cost levels [5][18] - The government is implementing capacity control measures to stabilize pork prices, which may lead to improved profitability for listed companies as costs decline [6][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of chicken chicks in Yantai was reported at 3.50 yuan/chick, down 2.8% month-on-month and 20.5% year-on-year. The price of broiler chickens was 3.45 yuan/kg, also down 2.8% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year [7][19] - The industry is expected to see an increase in market share for integrated enterprises and contract farming due to ongoing losses [7][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report highlights a slight decline in aquatic product prices, with various fish species showing mixed performance in price changes [8][20] - Hai Da Group is recommended for its expected growth and effective management, with a focus on increasing market share and overseas growth [9][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is showing an increase in sales growth compared to September, indicating a trend towards higher market concentration among leading brands [10][22] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with strong brand performance and those actively expanding their domestic market presence [25] 5. Agricultural Products - The report notes that soybean prices have reached new highs, but domestic soybean meal prices remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak downstream purchasing sentiment [14][26] - The rubber market is expected to continue fluctuating, influenced by macroeconomic factors and stable import levels [14][26] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4679, up 0.82% from the previous week, while the Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2970, up 0.79% [27][30] - The report indicates that the agricultural sector is experiencing a significant increase in investment value due to its unique characteristics and historical low valuations [14][26]

Agricultural Products - The market continues to show a strong trend in soybean meal and a weak trend in oils, with palm oil prices dropping to a four-month low [1] - U.S. soybean prices have risen to a near 17-month high due to optimistic expectations of continued Chinese purchases and tariff reductions [1] - The USDA's November supply and demand report is expected to lower U.S. soybean yield estimates to around 53 bushels per acre, which is seen as bullish [1] - Domestic oil mills are nearing the end of November shipment purchases, with over 30% of December shipments already contracted, primarily from Brazil [1] - The supply of rapeseed meal is tightening as domestic processing halts due to a lack of raw materials [1] Oil Market - Palm oil prices continue to decline, with Malaysia's palm oil production expected to increase by 12.31% month-on-month to 2.07 million tons in October [2] - India's palm oil imports have dropped to a five-month low, leading buyers to shift towards soybean oil [2] - The current market conditions suggest a low risk-reward ratio for shorting oils, with recommendations to consider volatility trading instead [2] Egg Market - The market sentiment for eggs has turned bullish as prices have reached low levels, with expectations of declining production capacity due to reduced chick placements [3][4] - As of November 7, the average price of brown shell eggs was 2.97 yuan per pound, showing a slight increase from the previous week [3] - The total number of laying hens decreased by 0.65% month-on-month but increased by 5.59% year-on-year, indicating a potential future decline in egg production [4] Corn Market - U.S. corn prices have risen alongside soybeans, with the corn harvest completion rate at 83% and yield estimates at 185.5 bushels per acre [5] - Domestic corn prices have shown strength, with a national average of 2207 yuan per ton, despite slight regional variations [6] - The corn futures market is experiencing upward momentum, with the main contract rebounding from low levels [6] Pork Market - The average price of live pigs has continued to decline, with a slight rebound observed towards the end of the week [7] - The average price of piglets has decreased, reflecting an increase in supply and a reluctance from fattening farmers to purchase at high prices [7][8] - The number of breeding sows has slightly decreased, but overall pig inventory has increased, indicating a potential for future price fluctuations [8]

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Market has a bearish outlook on Malaysian palm oil inventory, putting downward pressure on external palm oil prices. The Dalian palm oil is in a rebound phase after an over - decline, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the resistance in the 8800 - 8900 yuan range. - China will suspend retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products starting from the 10th, but US soybeans still face a 13% tariff, making them relatively expensive. There is no evidence of large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans, so CBOT soybeans lack the momentum to rise continuously. US biodiesel policy uncertainty affects the industrial use of US soybean oil, causing CBOT soybean oil to trade in a narrow range. Domestically, soybean supply is abundant, and the basis price may fluctuate within a certain range [1]. Sugar - The global sugar supply is abundant, causing the raw sugar price to remain weak and reach a five - year low. The domestic sugar market is less affected by the decline due to import quotas. There is an expectation of a delayed start of the sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, and the market consumption is mainly on - demand, with general trading volume. The sugar price is expected to move weakly in a volatile manner [3]. Pork - The market's reluctance to sell and the increase in secondary fattening have supported the pig price to be slightly stronger. According to the planned November slaughter volume, the overall slaughter progress will slow down, which may boost the November pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and be cautiously bullish on single - side operations [5]. Cotton - The upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure, but the pressure is not concentrated due to cost differences between northern and southern Xinjiang and pre - hedging of some new cotton. There is cost support at the lower level. The downstream demand is weak, but the finished - product inventory pressure is not large, and textile mills have a rigid demand for cotton. In the short term, the cotton price may trade in a range [7]. Corn - As the early high - moisture corn is released and the weather improves, farmers' willingness to sell is price - sensitive. Due to snow and transportation issues in the Northeast and price support in North China, the supply volume has decreased, and the price has rebounded locally. In November, there is still selling pressure from the concentrated supply of corn, but there is also cost and purchase - storage policy support. The demand side is cautious, and the corn price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may weaken when the selling pressure emerges [8]. Meal - The demand for US soybeans is not well - supported due to the 13% tariff, and it is difficult for US soybeans to continue rising. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but there is strong cost support. The near - term shipping schedule has a negative crushing margin, and there is a 7.5 million - ton supply gap from November to January. The soybean meal price is expected to trade in a range [12]. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens in November is expected to remain relatively stable at a high level, and the egg supply pressure persists. The terminal market demand is general, and the egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom [15]. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 7, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8390 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8188 yuan, and the basis was 206 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.69% to 26014 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on November 7 was 8560 yuan, up 0.23%. The futures price of P2601 was 8660 yuan, and the basis was - 100 yuan. The盘面 import cost was 9102.5 yuan, and the import profit was - 411 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu on November 7 was 9800 yuan, up 0.20%. The futures price of OI601 was 9533 yuan, and the basis was 267 yuan [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of SR2601 was 5457 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The price of SR2605 was 5397 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 14.13 cents/pound, down 0.63% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 5780 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and the basis was 383 yuan, up 5.80%. The spot price in Kunming was 5650 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the basis was 253 yuan, down 6.99% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 1048.00 million tons, up 9.17%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.90%, down 2.60% [3]. Pork - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of LH2605 was 12005 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The price of LH2601 was 11865 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 140 yuan, down 64.71% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan was 11950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The spot price in Shandong was 12050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The spot price in Sichuan was 11450 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 162310, up 1.03%. The weekly white - striped pork price was 0 yuan, down 100%. The weekly piglet price was 17 yuan/kg, down 15% [5]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of CF2605 was 13590 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The price of CF2601 was 13580 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The price of ICE US cotton was 64.48 cents/pound, down 1.44% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton was 14678 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The CC Index: 3128B was 14859 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The FC Index:M: 1% was 13087 yuan/ton, down 0.83% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, down 4.3%. The import volume was 10 million tons, up 42.9%. The textile industry's inventory year - on - year was - 25% [7]. Corn - **Corn**: On November 7, the price of C2601 was 2149 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was 11 yuan, up 375%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 92 yuan, down 2.22%. The import profit was 214 yuan, up 9.49% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2462 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The basis was 48 yuan, up 17.07%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 98 yuan, down 2.08% [8]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3058 yuan, down 0.33%. The basis was 2 yuan, up 125%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's crushing margin was 43 yuan, up 295.5% [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2540 yuan, down 0.39%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2539 yuan, down 0.39%. The basis was 11 yuan, unchanged. The Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's crushing margin was 757 yuan, up 3.27% [12]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of JD12 was 3219 yuan/500KG, down 0.25%. The price of JD01 was 3391 yuan/500KG, up 0.15%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 172 yuan, down 8.18% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - laying hen farm price was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 3.12%. The basis was - 196 yuan/500KG, up 33.66% [15]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings was 2.80 yuan/feather, unchanged. The price of culled chickens was 4.03 yuan/jin, down 1.95%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.38, up 1.28%. The breeding profit was - 24.44 yuan/feather, up 6.36% [15].

Core Points - The U.S. and Thailand have reached a joint statement regarding a framework for a bilateral trade agreement, focusing on tariff reductions and non-tariff barriers [1] - Thailand will eliminate tariffs on 99% of goods, covering all U.S. industrial products, food, and agricultural products, while the U.S. will maintain a 19% tariff on Thai goods, with some exceptions [1] - Thailand commits to addressing non-tariff barriers for U.S. industrial products, food, and services, including accepting U.S. standards and certifications [1] Tariff Summary - Thailand will remove tariffs on 99% of goods, impacting all U.S. industrial products, food, and agricultural products [1] - The U.S. will keep a 19% tariff on Thai goods, but certain items listed in a specific executive order will have zero tariffs [1] Non-Tariff Barriers - Thailand will accept U.S. manufactured vehicles that meet U.S. standards and U.S. FDA-approved medical products [1] - Thailand will expedite the entry of U.S. certified meat, poultry, and horticultural products into its market [1] - Thailand will not impose a digital services tax and will ensure the free transmission of data across borders [1] Trade Commitments - Thailand will purchase approximately $2.6 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually, including feed corn and soybean meal [1] - Thailand will also buy about $5.4 billion in U.S. energy products each year, including LNG, crude oil, and ethane [1] - An order for 80 U.S. aircraft is included, totaling $18.8 billion [1] Future Negotiations - The U.S. and Thailand will negotiate the "Reciprocal Trade Agreement" in the coming weeks, preparing for signing and domestic procedures to implement the agreement [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to favorable news over the weekend, positive domestic economic data, and continued market activity. However, the high - level volatility of technology stocks may still cause fluctuations [19][20]. - The upward trend of Treasury bond futures has temporarily paused due to the lack of incremental positive factors, weak foreign trade data, and the potential suppression from strong inflation data. The market is expected to be weakly stable in the short term [22]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties face different supply - demand situations. For example, soybeans have supply pressure, sugar has a weak international trend and a domestic oscillating pattern, and the oilseed sector is in a bottom - grinding stage [24][28][32]. - In the black metal market, steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, coking coal and coke may be adjusted in the short term with opportunities to go long after a correction, iron ore should be treated with a bearish mindset, and ferroalloys may have some cost support [57][60][65][67]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals will continue to be range - bound, copper will be in short - term volatile consolidation, alumina is in a bottom - grinding stage, aluminum prices will be strongly volatile, and other metals also have their own specific trends and trading strategies [70][74][77][84]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: Last week, the market was dominated by price - rising factors and future expectations. The index filled the gaps and then rebounded, and is expected to rise in a volatile manner with the support of positive news and economic data [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Do not chase high prices; consider building long positions on dips. Engage in the cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF. Use bull spreads on dips [20]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Some macro - indicators in October were mixed. The bond market may be desensitized to weak foreign trade data, but strong inflation data may suppress bond performance. The supply of government bonds will increase next week, and the market sentiment may be affected by the potential bond fund redemption fee regulations [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a defensive strategy and wait and see in the short term. Try to go long on the spread between the current and next - quarter contracts and hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread [22]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The international soybean supply is abundant, and the domestic soybean meal has supply pressure in the long - term. The short - term domestic market may face pressure due to losses in crushing profit [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy for the far - month contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell wide - straddle options [25]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the sugar production in major producing areas is increasing, and the price trend is downward. Domestically, the price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with a long - term weak trend but limited downward space [28][29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within the range for the domestic market. Short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [29]. Oilseed Sector - **Market Situation**: Palm oil inventory is expected to gradually decrease but remain at a relatively high level. Domestic palm oil supply is abundant. Soybean oil follows the overall trend of the oilseed market, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term as there is a lack of bullish drivers. The market may have a technical rebound, but the upside is limited [32]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Situation**: The US corn price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The domestic corn price is stable in the northeast and strong in the port area, with potential short - term downward pressure [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the 12 - month US corn on dips. Go long on the 01 - month domestic corn on dips and wait for dips for the 05 - and 07 - month contracts [36]. Live Hogs - **Market Situation**: The overall supply pressure of live hogs remains high, although the short - term pressure has slightly eased. The price is expected to face downward pressure [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Build a small number of short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell wide - straddle options [40]. Peanuts - **Market Situation**: Peanut prices are stable in the spot market, and the 01 - month contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the 05 - month contract with a small position and set a stop - loss. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [42]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: The demand for eggs has improved slightly, but the inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and the upside of the price is limited [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close the previous short positions and wait and see in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - **Market Situation**: The new apples are being stored, and the price is mainly stable. The inventory is lower than last year, but the market is at a high level with large differences in views [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to the high - level price and large differences in views. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Situation**: The picking of cotton is coming to an end. The supply is expected to increase, but the increase may be lower than expected. The demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US cotton is expected to oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [55]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Situation**: The supply of rebar is expected to increase, and the demand for all steel products has declined. The price is restricted by the supply - demand structure, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Consider going long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar on dips. Wait and see for options [58][61]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The production of coking coal mines has decreased slightly, and the demand for iron ore has also declined. The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the fourth - round price increase of coke is expected to be implemented. The price is expected to be adjusted in the short term and has opportunities to go long after a correction [60][63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term. Consider going long after a correction in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [64]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The supply of iron ore remains high in the fourth quarter, and the demand for steel in the domestic market is weak. The price is expected to be bearish [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategy. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [66]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The supply of ferroalloys remains high, and the demand is weak. The cost has some support, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [67][68]. - **Trading Strategy**: Reduce previous short positions on dips. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [68]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: The price of precious metals is affected by both positive and negative factors. The uncertainty of the US government shutdown and economic data affects the price, which is expected to be range - bound [71][73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a band - trading strategy. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [73]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The US government shutdown affects the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. The supply of copper mines is still tight, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be in short - term volatile consolidation [74][75]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The ratio may rebound periodically. Wait and see for options [76]. Alumina - **Market Situation**: The supply of alumina is still in excess, and the market expects production cuts. However, the actual production cuts have not been implemented, and the import pressure remains. The price is in a bottom - grinding stage [81][82]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate narrowly. If production cuts occur and expand, the price may rebound [82]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Situation**: The end of the US government shutdown eases market sentiment, and the domestic economic data is stable. The supply - demand of aluminum is tight, and the overseas supply is even more so. The price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner [86][87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long after a correction. Long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [87]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Situation**: The end of the US government shutdown eases market sentiment. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost is rising. The demand is stable and improving. The price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner [90]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [90]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: The mining end is tight, and the smelting profit is compressed. The export window is open, and the supply surplus may be alleviated. However, the production of new smelters and the export volume are uncertain [92]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. Hold the long SHFE zinc and short LME zinc arbitrage positions. Wait and see for options [94]. Lead - **Market Situation**: The supply of lead is expected to increase as the smelting capacity of recycled lead recovers, while the demand is weakening. The price may decline with the increase of social inventory [96]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money call options [96]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand of refined nickel is slightly tightened but overall loose. The cost is loosening, and the price is expected to weaken in a volatile manner [99]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the summary, but the overall view is bearish.

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market faces supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year, and short - term sanctions risks on Russian oil are easing. Consider bearish strategies [2]. - The precious metals market is waiting for new drivers, forming a high - level oscillation platform, and it's advisable to wait and see [2]. - Various metal markets, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., show different trends. For example, copper consumption is a concern, aluminum has short - term upward resistance but large market divergence, and zinc has opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3][4][7]. - Energy - related products like fuel oil and asphalt have different trends. Fuel oil is affected by crude oil, and asphalt is in a downward trend due to weak demand [21][22]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and livestock products like pigs and eggs have their own market characteristics. For example, soybeans may have inventory reduction in Q1 next year, and pig prices may have a second bottom in H1 next year [36][41]. - Financial products like stocks and bonds also show specific trends. The stock market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term, and the bond market's yield curve steepening may end [48][49]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Metals Crude Oil - Last week, international oil prices declined, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.36%. The US government shutdown impacts the employment and jet - fuel demand. The supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year needs to be released, and short - term sanctions risks on Russian oil are easing. Consider bearish strategies [2]. Precious Metals - US economic data was stable last week, but the government shutdown brings uncertainties. The market is waiting for new drivers, and it's advisable to wait and see [2]. Copper - Last Friday, copper prices oscillated negatively. The market focuses on copper consumption. China's un - wrought copper imports in October were low, and the US consumer confidence index was poor. Wait for the social inventory data and expect the previous up - rush to cool down. Wait and see [3]. Aluminum - On Friday, Shanghai aluminum prices declined. Since October, domestic inventory and spot performance have been neutral. Macroeconomic sentiment dominates, and the short - term upward resistance is around 21,800 yuan. The high index position reflects large market divergence, so beware of capital flow changes [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The Baotai ADC12 spot price is 20,900 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and tax policy adjustments are unclear. It follows aluminum price fluctuations and has no independent market for now [5]. Alumina - Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, inventory is rising, and the supply - surplus situation persists. The spot price decline slows but remains at a discount. It will operate weakly with limited rebound space [6]. Zinc - Domestic zinc ore supply is tightening, and smelting costs are rising. The zinc ingot export window is open, and domestic inventory is falling. There is an expectation of over 10,000 - ton delivery at LME. Consider cross - market reverse arbitrage and short - term long positions on Shanghai zinc, with the upper pressure at 23,200 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - LME lead inventory is decreasing, and the import window is closed. Domestic refineries are resuming production, with tight raw materials and strong cost support. The market is in a multi - empty situation, and Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel opened high and closed low, with weak downstream demand. Although there are news of stainless - steel plant production cuts, the implementation needs to be observed. The inventory of pure nickel decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, while nickel - iron and stainless - steel inventory increased. Shanghai nickel is in a weak operation [9]. Tin - Last Friday, tin prices oscillated. There are differences in institutional inventory data. The tin market is in a game between short - term supply tightness and long - term supply stability. Tin prices are expected to decline with significant upper resistance. Consider short - selling strategies [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are rising again, with active trading. The total market inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 127,000 tons. The spot is supported, and the futures price is strengthening. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is affected by capacity - control policy expectations. In November, production cuts are expected in the southwest, and downstream silicon wafers are also reducing production. The inventory pressure relief is limited, and it will oscillate in the short term [12]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon production in Sichuan and Yunnan is at a low level during the dry season, and downstream polysilicon has seasonal production cuts. It shows a supply - demand weak pattern and will oscillate [13]. Steel Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On Friday night, steel prices oscillated weakly, and Tangshan billet prices dropped by 10 yuan/ton over the weekend. Rebar demand and production decreased, and the de - stocking slowed. Hot - rolled coil demand and production also declined, with a slight inventory increase. The market is under pressure, and pay attention to the support at the lower edge of the oscillation range [14]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices declined last week. Global shipments are at a high level, and domestic arrivals have increased. Port inventory is rising. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and steel demand and iron - water production are decreasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. Coke - Coke prices oscillated upward. After the third - round price increase, there is an expectation of a fourth - round increase. Coke inventory decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate strongly [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated upward. Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, and terminal inventory increased slightly. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate strongly [17]. Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices oscillated strongly. Iron - water production is decreasing, while manganese silicon production is rising, and inventory is slowly increasing. The price has strong bottom support [18]. Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices oscillated strongly. Iron - water production is decreasing, but export and secondary demand are rising. Supply is high, and inventory is decreasing. The price has strong bottom support [19]. Shipping Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - Last week, the shipping order pressure existed, and the new SCFI European route price dropped by 1.6% week - on - week. In late November, the freight rate may rise. The upside space is limited, and it's advisable to wait and see. The fire at the TPP port may affect the rotation time of the Gemini European line [20]. Energy - Related Products Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market oscillates, mainly affected by crude oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong, but its continuous upward momentum is limited. High - sulfur fuel oil's supply will be more abundant in the medium - term. The spread between them may widen [21]. Asphalt - Asphalt has entered the off - season. The demand in the southwest and south can't offset the weakening in the north. Social inventory has been increasing year - on - year since late October. Refineries are cutting prices, and the market is bearish [22]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract oscillates narrowly. The chemical and combustion demand has increased, and the inventory rate of refineries and ports has decreased. The fundamentals support the LPG price [23]. Chemical Products Urea - Affected by the new export quota, urea prices rose over the weekend. Autumn fertilizer demand is ending, and production is high with limited inventory accumulation. India's new tender and domestic export liberalization boost the market, but be cautious when chasing long [24]. Methanol - Methanol futures oscillate at a low level. Iranian gas restrictions are delayed, and port inventory is high and rising. Downstream product profits are poor, and demand is weak. It will oscillate weakly until the inventory inflection point [25]. Pure Benzene - Last week, pure benzene prices declined. Port inventory increased, and production rose. The market will consolidate in the short term and face import and demand risks in the medium term. Consider month - spread reverse arbitrage [26]. Styrene - Styrene has insufficient cost support, and the inventory is high. The price will remain weak [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene is affected by falling oil prices, and demand is weak. Polyethylene has stable factory prices but cautious downstream purchases. Polypropylene's e - commerce inventory demand is disappointing, and new supply is expected [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC supply is high, and inventory is rising. Demand is affected by weather and exports. It will operate at a low level. Caustic soda oscillates at a low level, with weak downstream demand [29]. PX and PTA - PX supply increased, and PTA load decreased. Polyester and weaving loads changed slightly. PTA may have inventory accumulation in the medium term. Consider reverse arbitrage [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol production increased slightly, and port inventory rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand will weaken. Consider reverse arbitrage, and watch for possible production cuts [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the spot market is good, but profits are squeezed. In mid - late November, demand will weaken. Bottle - chip demand is weakening, and capacity is excessive [32]. Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are weak. After the Shahe production halt, prices rose but at a slower pace. Inventory is decreasing, and costs are rising. The decline space is limited, and keep the short - put option [33]. Rubber 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil prices oscillate, and Thai rubber prices vary. Global rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and Chinese tire production and inventory changed slightly. Rubber inventory increased, and cost support is weak. Consider oversold - rebound strategies and cross - variety arbitrage [34]. Chemical Fertilizers Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rose slightly. Supply is high, and inventory is high. The demand for heavy soda decreased due to glass production cuts. It's hard to fall in the short term [35]. Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Last Friday night, soybean prices oscillated weakly. Importing US soybeans has no price advantage, and domestic soybean inventory may decrease in Q1 next year. Watch for USDA reports and possible long - buying opportunities [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - US soybean prices declined. Palm oil rebounded, and it's necessary to watch if the rebound is sustainable. Consider the possibility of short - term stabilization of palm oil [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices are under pressure due to low sales and limited export markets. Domestic prices will oscillate, and pay attention to Australian rapeseed imports [38]. Bean No. 1 - Bean No. 1 prices fell from a high level. The purchase of domestic soybeans by the state reserve may support the market. Watch for policy guidance [39]. Corn - Northeast corn prices are stable and rising slightly, and Shandong's supply increased. The import tax rate on US corn changed. The market will oscillate weakly at the bottom, and watch for new trade agreements [40]. Pigs - Pig prices were stable over the weekend. The sow inventory decreased in October. Future supply pressure is large, and prices may form a second bottom in H1 next year [41]. Eggs - Egg prices declined over the weekend, and sales were slow. The laying - hen inventory is high, and chick replenishment is low. Consider short - selling at high prices [42]. Cotton - US cotton prices declined. China's cotton procurement may increase. Domestic cotton cost supports the market, but demand is average. Watch for tariff changes and export improvements [43]. Sugar - US sugar prices oscillated. International sugar supply is abundant. In China, the focus is on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the outlook for Guangxi's production is good [44]. Apples - Apple prices oscillated widely. Apple inventory decreased, but the quality is poor, and the selling - reluctance is strong. Consider short - selling strategies [45]. Wood - Wood prices are weak. Supply import is limited due to high foreign prices, and demand supports the price. Inventory is low, and it's advisable to wait and see [46]. Pulp - Pulp prices oscillated upward. Port inventory decreased by 2.6% week - on - week. Demand is average, and the valuation is low. Consider long - buying at low prices or wait and see [47]. Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares oscillated and adjusted, with most futures contracts falling. The inflation data improved, and the US consumer confidence index was low. The stock market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Keep a mid - term focus on technology and advanced manufacturing and balance with cyclical and consumer sectors [48]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures declined, and short - term Shibor rates rose. The export growth was lower than expected. The yield curve steepening may end [49].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Bean Meal Weekly Report" [1] - Report date: November 10, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Views - Last week, CBOT soybean January contract rose 2.25 to close at 1117.25 cents per bushel, up 0.2%; bean meal 01 contract rose 37 to close at 3058 yuan per ton, up 1.22%; South China bean meal spot rose 20 to close at 3000 yuan per ton, up 0.67%; rapeseed meal 01 contract rose 151 to close at 2539 yuan per ton, up 6.32%; Guangxi rapeseed meal spot rose 120 to close at 2630 yuan per ton, up 4.78% [2][5] - Optimistic sentiment on US soybean export trade cooled, and the external market oscillated at a high level; the crop prospects in South America were relatively positive. Import of US soybeans retains a 10% additional tariff, with 10% extra cost compared to Brazilian soybeans. Currently, the CNF arrival prices of Brazilian and US soybeans are basically the same, and Brazilian soybeans are more cost - effective. Although old - crop soybeans are decreasing, a certain amount of US soybeans still need to be purchased. The China - Canada relationship has warmed up, but relevant agreements have not been reached. Import of Canadian rapeseed still maintains high tariffs, and the subsequent arrival volume of rapeseed will decrease. Coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is depleted, and rapeseed meal inventory continues to decline, with supply tightening and rapeseed meal rising sharply [2][5] - The weather conditions in the Brazilian production area are suitable for crop growth and development; the Argentine production area is relatively dry, which is conducive to accelerating the sowing progress. The crop prospects in South America are good. China resumed the qualification of 3 enterprises for soybean export to China on November 10. Wait for the USDA's crop yield report based on survey data this week. There is a gap in domestic soybean procurement for the December - January shipping period. It is expected that the Dalian bean meal will oscillate and adjust in the short term [2][9] Group 3: Market Data - CBOT soybean: On November 7, it was 1117.25 cents per bushel, up 2.25 from October 31, with a 0.20% increase [3] - CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans: On November 7, it was 486.00 dollars per ton, down 7.00 from October 31, with a - 1.42% decrease [3] - CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans: On November 7, it was 496.00 dollars per ton, up 3.00 from October 31, with a 0.61% increase [3] - Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk: On November 7, it was - 144.09 yuan per ton, up 62.42 from before [3] - DCE bean meal: On November 7, it was 3058.00 yuan per ton, up 37 from before, with a 1.22% increase [3] - CZCE rapeseed meal: On November 7, it was 2539.00 yuan per ton, up 151 from before, with a 6.32% increase [3] - Bean meal - rapeseed meal price difference: On November 7, it was 519.00 yuan per ton, down 114 from before [3] - Spot price in East China: On November 7, it was 3020.00 yuan per ton, up 40 from before, with a 1.34% increase [3] - Spot price in South China: On November 7, it was 3000.00 yuan per ton, up 20 from before, with a 0.67% increase [3] - Spot - futures price difference in South China: On November 7, it was - 58.00 yuan per ton, down 17 from before [3] Group 4: Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of November 2, 2025, the estimated US soybean harvest rate was 91%, with an estimated range of 88% - 94%, compared with 94% in the same period last year. StoneX lowered the US 2025 soybean yield per acre from 53.9 bushels to 53.6 bushels and expected the 2025 US soybean output to be 4.303 billion bushels, lower than the previous expectation of 4.326 billion bushels [6] - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.15 dollars per bushel, compared with 2.33 dollars per bushel in the previous week. The 48% protein bean meal spot price in Illinois was 322.48 dollars per short - ton, compared with 299.18 dollars per short - ton in the previous week. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 48.32 cents per pound, compared with 49.54 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 11.05 dollars per bushel, compared with 10.48 dollars per bushel in the previous week [6][7] - As of the week of November 1, 2025, the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 47.1%, compared with 34.4% in the previous week, 53.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 54.7%. In Parana state, the 2025/26 soybean planting area reached 79% of the expected area, an increase of 8 percentage points from last week. The soybean growth was generally good, with 93% of the evaluated areas in good condition. Brazil's soybean export volume in November is expected to reach 3.77 million tons, higher than 2.34 million tons in the same period last year [7] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentine farmers started sowing 2025/26 soybeans, and most farmland soil moisture was in the "best" state. It is expected that Argentina will harvest 4.85 million tons of soybeans this year, and farmers have sown 4.4% of the expected 17.6 million - hectare soybean area. The Argentine oilseed workers' union and the oil industry association reached a salary increase agreement, avoiding a strike that could paralyze soybean crushing activities [8] - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from last week and an increase of 1.6005 million tons from the same period last year; the bean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons from last week and an increase of 168,900 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 4.205 million tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from last week and a decrease of 1.208 million tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 9.629 million tons, a decrease of 102,000 tons from last week and an increase of 2.884 million tons from the same period last year [8] - As of the week of November 7, 2025, the national weekly average daily trading volume of bean meal was 83,460 tons, including 66,740 tons of spot trading and 16,720 tons of forward trading. The previous week's average daily total trading volume was 111,780 tons; the weekly average daily pick - up volume of bean meal was 180,420 tons, compared with 196,360 tons in the previous week; the main oil mills' crushing volume was 1.8057 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons in the previous week; the feed enterprises' bean meal inventory days were 7.75 days, compared with 8.02 days in the previous week [9] Group 5: Industry News - AgRural reported that as of October 30, the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 47% of the expected sowing area, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular precipitation. The Cerrado savanna region in central Brazil, Goias state, Mato Grosso state, and the "Matopiba" region faced problems, and bad weather might lead to partial replanting [10] - The soybean output of the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) is expected to increase by 0.8% in the 2025/26 season, reaching 242.3 million tons, higher than 240.4 million tons in the previous year. The soybean planting area is expected to decrease by 0.4% or 300,000 hectares to 72 million hectares, mainly due to a 1.3 - million - hectare decrease in Argentina's planting area, partially offset by a 1 - million - hectare increase in Brazil's planting area. The expected more favorable climate pattern will drive the average yield to increase to 3.4 tons per hectare, higher than 3.32 tons per hectare in the 2024/25 season. The soybean export volume is expected to increase by 5 million tons [10] - StoneX kept the harvest estimates of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans and summer corn largely unchanged. The November soybean output estimate was slightly increased by 0.1% to 178.9 million tons, mainly due to an increase in the estimated planting area in Goias state. Irregular rainfall led to delayed sowing in some areas, and long - term forecasts showed favorable weather for the harvest [11] - It is expected that the 2025/26 Argentine soybean output will be 4.74 million tons, the same as the previous forecast. The dry weather at the end of October/early November alleviated concerns about excessive humidity in the southern Pampas region. The expected soybean planting area is 16.7 million hectares, slightly higher than the Rosario Grain Exchange's report of 16.4 million hectares but lower than the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's estimate of 17.6 million hectares. The USDA predicted Argentina's soybean output to be 4.85 million tons [11] - S&P Global Commodity Insights predicted that the average US soybean yield in 2025 would be 53.0 bushels per acre, the same as the October prediction, and the output would be 4.26 billion bushels, slightly lower than the previous estimate [12] - Imea reported that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state from October 27 - 31 was 502.44 reals per ton, compared with 467.42 reals per ton in the previous week. The state's bean meal price was 1,565.33 reals per ton, and the soybean oil price was 6,585.84 reals per ton [12] Group 6: Related Charts - The report includes charts such as the US soybean continuous contract trend, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, freight, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, management fund CBOT net position, bean meal main contract trend, regional bean meal spot price, bean meal M 1 - 5 monthly spread, Brazilian soybean production area precipitation and temperature, Argentine soybean production area precipitation and temperature, US soybean excellent rate, US soybean cumulative sales volume, US soybean weekly net sales volume, US soybean weekly export volume, US oil mill crushing profit, bean meal weekly average daily trading volume, bean meal weekly average daily pick - up volume, port soybean inventory, oil mill soybean inventory, oil mill weekly crushing volume, oil mill unexecuted contracts, oil mill bean meal inventory, and feed enterprise bean meal inventory days [13][14][15][17][19][20][22][24][30][32][34][36][38][42][44]