25 May 2025 | 12:46PM JST 日本周刊启动 TSE访问证实了持续关注并购、企业效率和少数股东权益。 本周总结 TOPIX: 2,735.52 (-0.2%) / NK225: 37,160.47 (-1.6%) 主要领域：非铁金属、制药业 底部行业：保险、玻璃与陶瓷 我们上周访问了东京证券交易所（TSE），以讨论子公司上市、关联公司上市以及在 要约收购（TOBs）和杠杆收购（MBOs）中对少数股东的处理。东京证券交易所一 直在修订其原有 企业行为准则 自去年以来，并且预计将在未来几个月发布更新版本（链接）。我们预计并购交易 中少数股东将受到公平对待将成为一个主要关注领域。结合METI最新并购指南的最 新变化（链接），似乎很明显，自上而下的推动，即创造一个公平透明的环境，使 日本股票市场可以通过并购实现整合，正在开始加速。 ：While there was a slight rebound in the %age of stocks with large 盈利 n 对结果的反应，它仍然远低于去年第四季度的盈利季节。截至2月/3月财年末的TOPI X公司当前日元对美元的假设为145日元，而出 ...

Group 1: Economic Environment and Challenges - The current international situation is evolving significantly, with increasing competition in technology and industry, leading to heightened external uncertainties [2] - Trade protectionism is on the rise, increasing export pressures on China, particularly in industries heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. such as machinery and electronics [3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8% due to ongoing trade policy uncertainties [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Manufacturing Risks - There are two major risks for China's manufacturing sector: decoupling and technology blockade, as developed countries attempt to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains [4] - Developed countries are implementing strategies to attract low-end manufacturing away from China, while simultaneously restricting high-end manufacturing technology from leaving [4] Group 3: Financial Market Volatility - Global financial markets are experiencing increased volatility due to economic and political uncertainties, which may exacerbate capital flow fluctuations in China [5] - Financial sanctions and restrictions on capital markets are making it more difficult for Chinese companies to secure financing [5] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Response - A more proactive fiscal policy is deemed essential for enhancing the certainty of high-quality economic development in response to external shocks [6] - The Chinese government has a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio of 67.5%, providing significant room for fiscal policy expansion compared to G20 and G7 countries [8] Group 5: Implementation of Fiscal Policies - The focus of fiscal policy should be on enhancing social welfare, promoting consumption, and increasing investment efficiency to stimulate domestic demand [9] - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial for effective macroeconomic management, ensuring that government investments lead to increased social investments [11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment rating for major broad-based indices as of May 23, 2025, with the ChiNext Index classified as "safe" and other indices categorized as "moderate" [19][22]. Core Insights - The market experienced a contraction with major indices declining during the week of May 19-23, 2025. The report highlights a rapid rotation in themes, with precious metals and automotive sectors performing well. However, the "dividend + micro-cap" strategy showed signs of short-term adjustment after reaching a yearly high, suggesting a potential decline in trading preferences [12][13]. - The report emphasizes that liquidity easing and rising risk appetite are expected to drive a rebound in A-shares in the medium to long term, with "dividend + small-cap" combinations being the preferred allocation strategy post-adjustment [12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Major indices saw declines: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.57%, SSE 50 down 0.18%, CSI 300 down 0.18%, CSI 500 down 1.10%, CSI 1000 down 1.29%, ChiNext Index down 0.88%, and North Star 50 down 3.68% [13][14]. Valuation Analysis - As of May 23, 2025, the ChiNext Index is in the "safe" valuation percentile, while other major indices are in the "moderate" range. In terms of sector valuation, industries such as construction materials, light industry manufacturing, power equipment and new energy, defense and military, computer, and comprehensive finance are classified as "dangerous," while non-ferrous metals, utilities, home appliances, food and beverage, agriculture, non-bank financials, and transportation are deemed "safe" [19][20]. Fund Flow Tracking - The report notes that institutional interest was highest for stocks like Huichuan Technology (352 institutions), Fuchuang Precision (109), Bozhong Precision (106), Boshi Software (102), and Shengmei Shanghai (101) during the week [51]. - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 18.96 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 19.05 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect experiencing a net outflow of 0.97 billion HKD [3]. Sector Performance - The top five performing sectors this week were comprehensive, pharmaceuticals, automotive, non-ferrous metals, and home appliances, while the worst performers included comprehensive finance, computers, electronics, machinery, and communications [15]. Institutional Research - A total of 379 institutional research activities were recorded, with the majority focused on companies listed in Shenzhen and Shanghai. The report highlights that specific object research and other types accounted for 78.36% and 8.71% of the total, respectively [42][46].

Group 1 - The U.S. manufacturing sector requires at least $2.9 trillion in investment to reach the employment levels of 1979, which is a significant challenge given the current employment number of 12.8 million compared to the historical peak of 19.5 million in 1979 [2][4] - The need for approximately 6.7 million new jobs to achieve the historical employment level is almost equivalent to the total number of unemployed individuals reported in April, which was 7.2 million [4] - High labor costs, a shortage of skilled workers, and demographic challenges such as low birth rates and tightened immigration policies are major barriers to the return of manufacturing jobs [2][4] Group 2 - The trend of automation is reshaping the manufacturing landscape, with significant investments in robotics, which may conflict with the job creation goals of the current administration [5] - The report from Wells Fargo indicates that to make domestic manufacturing competitive again, sufficient tariff protection and a stable policy environment are necessary, but political and economic costs may lead to a reduction in current tariffs [5] - The Federal Reserve's hesitation to lower interest rates is keeping borrowing costs high, which is putting pressure on capital goods production industries [6] Group 3 - The uncertainty in global trade policies, particularly those stemming from the U.S., is causing businesses to reassess their investment strategies, potentially leading to a slowdown in the global economy [8][9] - The European Union has downgraded its export growth forecasts due to the impact of trade tensions, predicting only 0.7% growth in 2025 [8] - The evolving tariff strategies of the Trump administration are characterized by significant volatility and systemic risks, which could further deteriorate the global economic and financial situation if uncertainty persists [9]

美国总统特朗普23日威胁自6月1日起对进口自欧盟的商品征收50%关税，远高于美国此前宣布对欧暂缓 的20%所谓"对等关税"，招致欧盟方面强烈不满并引发资本市场再次动荡。美欧贸易磋商仍在进行中， 美方为何突然提议对欧加征高额关税？欧盟方面将如何应对？美欧关税博弈将产生哪些影响？ 美方为何再次威胁？ 特朗普当天在社交媒体上表示，欧盟在贸易方面"很难打交道"，美欧贸易磋商"毫无进展"。因此，他建 议自6月1日起对进口自欧盟的商品征收50%关税。《华盛顿邮报》援引欧洲消息人士的话报道，这一关 税威胁令欧盟方面"措手不及"。 分析人士认为，这一表态显示美方不满谈判进展。美国财政部长贝森特当天也表示，对欧盟方面给出的 方案不满意，而且欧盟"存在集体行动问题"。有美国媒体援引欧洲国家官员的话报道，美方要求欧盟单 方面让步，却几乎没有提供任何回报，给欧盟出了难题，因为任何欧盟成员对谈判结果不满都会阻止或 拖延协议通过。 现阶段，美欧在贸易领域分歧较大，欧盟有意在购买美国天然气、武器和农产品方面作出让步，但不会 接受美国有关取消增值税、削弱数字监管和税收以及降低食品标准的要求。 另外，有分析认为，美国政府对当前美欧关系并不满意 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile adjustment this week, with major indices recording negative returns, indicating a "strong large, weak small" pattern[11] - The North Star 50 index saw a significant drop of 3.68% after reaching a historical high earlier in the week, confirming the anticipated "active adjustment" phase[58] Sector Performance - The dividend style sectors outperformed overall, with the healthcare and automotive industries rising by 1.92% and 1.80% respectively, while technology and growth sectors continued to weaken, with declines of 3.00% in computing and 2.10% in electronics[12][59] - Among the 30 sectors, 9 increased and 21 decreased, highlighting the dominance of dividend styles[12] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 1.14 trillion yuan, down from 1.23 trillion yuan the previous week[19] - Financing buy-in ratio fell to 8.22%, with a net outflow of 11.3 billion yuan from stock ETFs this week[27] Economic Influences - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was lowered by 10 basis points, with the one-year LPR now at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, aimed at reducing loan costs and stimulating economic growth[54] - The U.S. 20-year Treasury yield exceeded 5%, impacting market risk appetite negatively[56] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its adjustment phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index's gap from April 10 (3186-3201 points) serving as a key technical support level[60] - Investment strategy suggests reallocating from high-rebound technology and growth sectors to relatively stable large financial and dividend sectors to manage portfolio volatility[61]

Group 1: Market Trends and Highs - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors reaching new highs, serving as market indicators and highlighting the effectiveness of momentum and trend-following strategies [1][4] - As of May 23, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 4.05%, Shenzhen Component Index 11.85%, CSI 300 8.78%, CSI 500 10.70%, CSI 1000 9.41%, CSI 2000 7.40%, ChiNext Index 20.73%, and STAR Market 12.98% [5][18] Group 2: New High Stocks Overview - A total of 647 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest numbers in the basic chemicals, machinery, and pharmaceuticals sectors, totaling 93, 88, and 53 stocks respectively [11][19] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in the banking, textile and apparel, and transportation sectors, with respective proportions of 64.29%, 24.24%, and 23.58% [11][19] Group 3: Stable New High Stocks - The report identifies 41 stable new high stocks, with the manufacturing and consumer sectors contributing the most, each with 11 stocks selected [16][19] - The automotive industry leads in the manufacturing sector for new highs, while the food and beverage industry leads in the consumer sector [16][19] Group 4: Sector and Concept Indexes - Among the sector indices, banking, automotive, home appliances, electric power and utilities, and non-ferrous metals are closest to their 250-day new highs, with distances of 0.96%, 2.38%, 3.08%, 1.95%, and 4.71% respectively [7][18] - Concept indices such as automotive, banking selection, gold, innovative drugs, and banking are also near their 250-day new highs [8][18]

Group 1 - Tokyo stock market rebounded on the 23rd, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 174.60 points to close at 37160.47, an increase of 0.47% [1] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange stock price index increased by 18.43 points, closing at 2735.52, reflecting a rise of 0.68% [1] - The rise was influenced by the overnight increase in the Nasdaq index, particularly in high-tech stocks, and a slight depreciation of the yen, which boosted expectations for improved performance from export-related companies [1] Group 2 - Over 80% of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw gains, with other products rising by 3.62% and non-ferrous metals increasing by nearly 3% [1] - However, six sectors, including mining, securities and commodity futures trading, and electric and gas industries, experienced slight declines [1] - Despite improvements in Japanese corporate sentiment and a better PMI report from the US, the Tokyo stock market has struggled to maintain trading enthusiasm, with the 200-day moving average acting as a resistance level [2]

Economic Outlook - Global economic growth is projected to decline from 3.2% to 2.7% in 2025 if new tariffs are implemented by the US [1][7] - The US economy is expected to slow down to 2.4% growth in 2025 from 2.8% in the previous year [1][7] - The Eurozone is forecasted to achieve only 1% growth in 2025, with Germany facing stagnation or a slight recession [1][7] Trade and Tariffs - New tariffs proposed by the US could significantly impact global trade, with potential tariffs of 60% on Chinese imports and 10-25% on imports from other countries [13][15] - The tariffs are expected to reduce global GDP by approximately 0.3% to 0.5% by 2026, with a notable decrease in global imports and exports by around 4% [18] - Germany, as an export-oriented economy, could see its GDP reduced by 0.4% in 2025 due to these trade restrictions [18] Monetary Policy - Central banks are facing challenges, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain interest rates around 4% while the European Central Bank plans further cuts [2][7] - Diverging financial policies are affecting exchange rates, leading to a stronger US dollar against the euro and yen [2][7] Investment Environment - High interest rates are suppressing investment levels, particularly in construction and equipment, despite a recovery in consumer demand [2][3] - Emerging markets, especially in Asia, are showing stronger industrial production growth compared to regions like Africa and the Middle East [2][3] Consumer Behavior - In the US, consumer confidence remains low despite rising wages, with spending not increasing as expected due to inflationary pressures [3][4] - In Europe, countries like France and Italy are facing fiscal challenges that could hinder economic growth [3][4] Structural Challenges - The global economy is experiencing a complex recovery, with governments needing to balance economic stimulus and debt control [4] - Political uncertainties, particularly in the US and Europe, are complicating long-term economic planning for businesses [3][4]

智通财经APP获悉，汇丰发布研报称，2025年一季度A股盈利同比增长3.8%，材料(+40.3%)和信息技术(+24.7%)板块领涨，成长风格持续跑赢市 场。基于AI渗透率提升、全球化贸易突破及周期性行业复苏三大投资主题，重点推荐小米集团-W(01810)、深信服(300454.SZ)、掌趣科技 (300315.SZ)、和铂医药-B(02142)、立讯精密(002475.SZ)、安克创新(300866.SZ)、巨星科技(002444.SZ)、苏州银行(002966.SZ)、珀莱雅 (603605.SH)、顺丰控股(002352.SZ)等10只买入评级股票。 汇丰主要观点如下： 汇丰重点关注三大投资主题：人工智能(AI)、全球化、周期性复苏 2025 年一季度 A 股盈利同比增长 3.8%，材料和信息技术板块领涨成长风格预计将继续跑赢市场，2025 年一季度和 2024 年的盈利增长强劲支撑这 一趋势。 2025 年一季度及 2024 年业绩关键要点： 2025 年一季度 A 股盈利同比增长 3.8%，但 2024 年同比下降 2.3%; 分行业来看，2025 年一季度材料(+40.3%，有色金属和钢铁价格回升 ...