Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities highlights significant volatility in global risk assets due to concerns over tightening overseas liquidity and discussions surrounding an "AI bubble" [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Global risk assets have experienced substantial fluctuations this week, influenced by a lack of economic data, frequent hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, and rising liquidity pressures in the money market due to government shutdown and fiscal constraints [1] - The strong dollar has suppressed global stock markets and commodity prices, with technology-heavy indices like Nikkei 225, Korean stock index, and Nasdaq leading the decline [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The probability of overseas liquidity tightening evolving into systemic risk is low, as solutions from the Federal Reserve and bipartisan negotiations to reopen the government are progressing, which may gradually alleviate external disturbances on risk appetite [2] - If the U.S. government shutdown ends as expected in mid-November and more economic data is released, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts will be recalibrated, potentially creating a window for global recovery [3] Group 3: AI Industry Analysis - The current discussions around the "AI bubble" have caused some disturbances in the domestic AI industry chain, but Industrial Securities believes that AI's empowerment of traditional industries is still in its early stages, making it incomparable to the internet bubble of 1999-2000 [4] - The development logic of the AI industry is clear, with major global tech companies continuously defining their AI strategies, and the fundamentals of leading companies in the U.S. stock market remain strong due to ongoing R&D investments and capital expenditures [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes AI as a key driver for national competition and technological innovation, indicating that the AI industry chain will be a focus area with favorable prospects next year [5] - The year-end market is seen as an important window for positioning in sectors expected to perform well in the coming year, with a focus on cyclical sectors such as steel, chemicals, construction materials, and new consumption [6][7] - High-growth sectors expected to see net profit growth of over 30% next year include AI hardware, new energy, and military industries, while sectors with expected growth of 10%-30% include pharmaceuticals and AI downstream applications [7][8]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a soft landing for the US economy, with expectations of interest rate cuts due to weakened Federal Reserve independence and employment pressures [2] - A potential economic slowdown or mild recession is expected to be countered by rapid interest rate cuts, benefiting gold and US equities over US Treasuries and cash [2] Group 2: Domestic Market Projections - The A-share market is projected to have considerable upward potential during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a target of over 4450 points by 2026, supported by low bond rates and improving prices [3] - The report suggests a long-term bullish trend for the Chinese stock market, aligning with the strategic focus on information technology and consumption [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from a significant inflow of southbound funds, with a target range of 29000-32000 points for 2026, following a strong performance in 2025 [4] - The shift in pricing power from quantity to quality due to southbound fund inflows is highlighted as a key factor influencing Hong Kong stock valuations [4] Group 4: Industry Selection - AI applications are expected to drive growth across various sectors, including internet/software, media, hardware, semiconductors, and retail [5] - The PPI chain is anticipated to benefit midstream manufacturing and upstream raw materials industries, with a focus on sectors like electrical equipment, defense, chemicals, and machinery [5] - Non-bank financials, particularly insurance and brokerage firms, are expected to perform well due to market conditions [5] - The pharmaceutical sector is viewed positively, with new consumption trends favoring innovative drugs over traditional consumption [5] - A stable cash flow combination is projected to outperform the market, especially in a context of a weakening dollar and low bond yields [5]

Core Insights - The report from Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Council indicates that since the establishment of 10 border economic zones in 2015, they have attracted a total investment of 54.82 billion Thai Baht (approximately 12.18 billion RMB) [1] Investment Overview - The 10 border economic zones are located in various provinces including Tak, Nong Khai, Mukdahan, Trat, Songkhla, Loei, Nakhon Phanom, Kanchanaburi, Narathiwat, and Chiang Rai [1] - A total of 132 investment projects have been approved in these zones, with a cumulative investment amount of 54.82 billion Thai Baht [1] - The sectors involved in these investment projects include apparel, plastics, animal feed, automotive parts, machinery, construction materials, medical gloves, and hospital construction [1] Business Landscape - There are currently 8,782 registered enterprises in the border economic zones, with 98% classified as small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [1] - The development of these economic zones reflects the Thai government's commitment to promoting border economy and international cooperation, providing sustained momentum for local economies and creating more job opportunities [1]

《阿拉伯海湾商业洞察》11月6日消息，阿曼在布赖米省马赫达镇启动价值20亿美元的"拉瓦达经济 特区"项目。该项目由阿曼经济特区和自由区公共管理局（Opaz）与迪拜环球港务集团（DP World）合 资建设，占地14平方公里，包括石化、机械、金属及食品工厂和物流中心，将助力两国贸易便利化与区 域供应链联通。 （原标题：阿曼—阿联酋20亿美元经济自由区项目开工） ...

Group 1: Government Policies and Guidelines - The State Council issued an implementation opinion to accelerate the cultivation and large-scale application of new scenarios, focusing on five areas including new fields, industry transformation, and social governance [1] - The National Energy Administration released guidelines to promote the integration of coal and new energy, emphasizing clean energy alternatives in mining areas and the electrification of coal production processes [3] Group 2: Regulatory Updates - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced the "Securities Settlement Risk Fund Management Measures," effective from December 8, 2025, which includes adjustments to the collection scope and payment ratios for risk funds [2] Group 3: Company Announcements - Xin Zhu Co., Ltd. plans to sell assets worth 1.392 billion yuan and acquire 60% equity in Shu Dao Clean Energy for 5.814 billion yuan, marking a significant asset restructuring to focus on clean energy generation [4] - De Gu Te announced the termination of its major asset restructuring transaction with Haojing Cloud Computing due to difficulties in meeting the demands of all parties involved [4] - Ying Tang Zhi Kong intends to acquire 100% equity in Guilin Guanglong Integrated Technology and 80% equity in Shanghai Aojian Microelectronics, with plans to issue shares to raise supporting funds [4] - Huadian Energy plans to invest 12.043 billion yuan in a combined heat and power project in Heilongjiang [4] - ST Huatuo received a notice from the CSRC regarding a potential investigation for information disclosure violations, but stated that normal operations would not be significantly affected [7] - Changcheng Technology announced the termination of a major transaction that could have led to a change in control due to a lack of consensus with the counterparty [7] Group 4: Market Insights - The mechanical industry is expected to have significant investment opportunities in the technology innovation sector by 2026, driven by internationalization and structural opportunities in external demand [8] - The robotics sector is anticipated to enter a phase of consolidation after significant adjustments, with key developments from Tesla expected to support high market expectations [8]

Group 1 - The foundation of a long-term bull market requires not only liquidity improvement but also robust fundamental enhancements, with historical data showing that the longer the time cycle, the stronger the correlation between market performance and fundamentals [3][7][11] - The current bull market has significant room for growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a performance close to previous structural bull markets, yet still having considerable upside compared to comprehensive bull markets from 2005-2007 and 2013-2015 [5][6] - The policy environment provides critical turning points for expected improvements, with historical instances indicating that key policy announcements often coincide with the onset of bull markets [15][18] Group 2 - In 2026, price changes are expected to be a major driver of profitability, with projections indicating that A-share earnings growth will gradually recover to around 10%, particularly in the non-financial sector [40][53] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" provides a significant policy foundation for economic and industrial development, with expectations for positive market performance in the opening year of the plan [112][114] - The structural highlights in profitability are anticipated to emerge from sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing, which are expected to continue their upward trajectory [56][61] Group 3 - Resident funds are the most crucial source of capital for the A-share market, with a notable trend of "deposit migration" observed, indicating a sustained flow of funds into the equity market [63][67] - High-risk preference funds have been the primary incremental source of capital in the current bull market, similar to trends seen in 2015, while medium-risk preference funds are expected to become significant contributors in the next phase [70][91] - The importance of ETF investments is expected to increase, with passive equity funds showing better performance and gaining traction among investors [96][100]

Core Points - The Tokyo stock market experienced a decline on November 7, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 1.19% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index decreasing by 0.44% [1][2] - Investor risk aversion increased due to the significant drop in the U.S. stock market, particularly affecting semiconductor-related stocks, which saw major sell-offs by institutional investors [1] - The Nikkei index briefly dropped over 1200 points, falling below the 50000 mark, with a peak decline exceeding 2% [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei index closed down by 607.31 points at 50276.37 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index fell by 14.60 points to 3298.85 points [2] - Among the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, service, marine transportation, and steel sectors showed gains, while non-ferrous metals, electrical products, and machinery sectors led the declines [2]

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, China's economy is expected to focus on balancing growth stabilization and structural adjustment, with a projected GDP growth target of around 5% and continued policy support [1][2][3] Economic Policy and Outlook - The fiscal policy is anticipated to maintain momentum, with public fiscal deficit potentially increasing from 4% to 4.2%, adding approximately 1.7 trillion yuan to the broad deficit scale [2][3] - Monetary policy is expected to diversify, including measures such as central bank bond trading, reserve requirement ratio cuts, and open market operations [2][3] - The divergence between domestic demand and export performance is a key focus, with exports expected to grow by about 6% in 2026 despite external pressures [3][4] Domestic Demand and Supply Dynamics - The ideal policy combination for 2026 should prioritize "increasing demand" while also "optimizing supply," focusing on fiscal expansion and enhancing social security [3][4] - Fixed asset investment is projected to see limited recovery, with infrastructure investment growth remaining stable, while consumer spending is expected to shift towards service consumption [3][4] - Key measures to stimulate service consumption include introducing service consumption vouchers and promoting new urbanization [3][4] Capital Market Trends - The A-share market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend in 2026, driven by asset replacement, capital market reforms, and economic transformation [5][6] - The market's focus is shifting from sentiment-driven to fundamental verification, with corporate earnings being crucial for valuation increases [6][7] - A clear investment direction is suggested, focusing on four main lines: technology growth (self-sufficiency in computing power, semiconductors, AI applications), PPI improvement, global competitiveness (automotive, electronics, machinery), and domestic demand transformation [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial manufacturing industry, including Green City China, China Resources Land, New China Life Insurance, and Qilu Bank, among others [49][50]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing economic recovery and the potential for profit improvement, although it notes that challenges remain, particularly in the real estate sector where sales volume is expected to be under pressure in Q4 [10][13]. - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing high growth, with recommendations to focus on high-performing stocks [18]. - The banking sector shows signs of recovery with attractive valuations, suggesting a continued positive outlook for bank stocks [20]. - The renewable energy sector is identified as having established a bottom, with a focus on new technologies and market dynamics [23]. - The machinery sector is advised to pay attention to AI computing power, which presents investment opportunities in power supply [31]. - The military industry is expected to see an upward trend in prosperity, with a focus on military trade, internal installations, and the transition from military to civilian applications [33]. - The light industry is encouraged to explore opportunities in overseas manufacturing and new consumer products, while also monitoring domestic demand improvements [35]. - The environmental sector is advised to focus on second growth curve changes and market hotspots [43]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Industrial profits rose by 21.6% year-on-year in September, driven by the export chain, although October's PMI indicates potential profit improvement challenges [11][12]. Real Estate - Q4 sales volume is expected to face year-on-year pressure, with new home sales likely to decline significantly [13][14]. Non-Bank Financials - The sector's performance remains strong, with a recommendation to focus on high-performing stocks [18][19]. Banking - The banking sector is seeing a recovery in net interest income, with a positive outlook for bank stocks [20][21]. Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector is highlighted for its ongoing demand and technological advancements [23][24]. Machinery - Investment opportunities are noted in the AI computing power sector, particularly in power supply [31][32]. Military Industry - The military sector is expected to improve, focusing on military trade and technology advancements [33][34]. Light Industry - Opportunities in overseas manufacturing and new consumer products are emphasized, along with monitoring domestic demand [35][36]. Environmental Sector - The environmental sector is advised to focus on growth opportunities and market trends [43][44].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced mixed performance last week, with major indices showing fluctuations and increased trading volume during adjustments [1] - Among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, and steel performed relatively well [1] Macro Data Analysis - In September, industrial enterprise profits grew by 21.6% year-on-year, up from 20.4% in August, marking two consecutive months of double-digit growth [3] - The mining industry saw a profit decline of 29.3%, while manufacturing and electric heat water supply industries reported profit increases of 9.9% and 10.3%, respectively [3] - The automotive and computer communication equipment manufacturing sectors showed significant improvement, influenced by industry trends and policy support [3] - The accounts receivable period slightly shortened to 69.2 days, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3 days and a month-on-month decrease of 0.9 days, linked to a new fiscal tool worth 500 billion [3] Corporate Profit Growth - The cumulative year-on-year net profit growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares in Q3 2025 was 5.54% and 3.94%, respectively, showing an increase from H1 2025 [4] - The main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market reported net profit growth rates of +5.02%, +19.23%, and -5.01% in Q3 2025, reflecting a recovery from H1 2025 [4] - Key industries with strong net profit growth in Q3 included steel, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, electronics, and media [4] Market Strategy Outlook - The market experienced wide fluctuations last week, with marginal increases in trading volume during adjustments [5] - The proportion of public funds heavily invested in TMT sectors reached 40%, nearing historical highs [5] - The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with high-pressure adjustments on elevated sectors [5] - Long-term investment opportunities may arise from the ongoing AI competition and sectors with strong fundamentals, such as technology and domestic demand [5] - Defensive sectors are recommended for increased allocation, with a focus on dividend-paying stocks and stable assets like gold and agricultural products [5]