Core Insights - China's economy continues to maintain stable and healthy development, providing certainty and positive energy for global economic growth. Despite some perceptions that investment opportunities are diminishing, China's economic transformation and upgrading present unprecedented opportunities for countries worldwide [1] Group 1: Industry Transformation and Upgrading - China's manufacturing sector remains the largest globally for 15 consecutive years, with 80% of it comprising traditional industries such as metallurgy, chemicals, machinery, light industry, and textiles. The acceleration of high-end, intelligent, and green development will release investment opportunities in these areas [1] - New industries such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and biomedicine are rapidly emerging, with China leading in several AI models and maintaining the largest industrial robot market for 12 years. The country is fostering the development of future industries and is open to sharing investment opportunities with global partners [1] Group 2: Technological Innovation and Talent Dividend - China is quickly rising in the global technology innovation landscape, with R&D expenditure exceeding 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, approaching the OECD average. The country leads in high-level international journal publications and invention patents [2] - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is accelerating, with increasing patent conversion rates and the transformation of cutting-edge technological achievements into new productive forces. China produces over 5 million STEM graduates annually, enhancing the talent dividend, particularly in engineering [2] Group 3: Consumption Expansion and Upgrade - China's per capita GDP exceeds $13,000, with a steadily expanding market size. The retail sales of consumer goods are expected to surpass 50 trillion yuan by 2025, solidifying China's position as the world's second-largest consumer market [3] - Online retail sales have ranked first globally for 12 consecutive years, with significant sales in automobiles and air conditioners. Service consumption is becoming a new growth engine, with the proportion of per capita service consumption expected to reach 46.1% in 2024 [3] Group 4: Infrastructure Development - China's vast territory necessitates significant infrastructure development, particularly in the central and western regions where railway and road density is lower than in the eastern coastal areas. Traditional infrastructure construction and upgrades will yield long-term economic and social benefits [3] - Investment demand remains high for intercity railways and cross-river, cross-sea bridges, which improve transportation logistics and regional economic development. Rapid growth in new infrastructure areas such as computing networks, mobile communications, and smart cities will create vast market opportunities [3] Group 5: Urbanization and Social Welfare - China's urbanization is transitioning from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on improving quality and spatial layout, developing urban clusters, and modernizing cities. Urban renewal projects will create significant investment opportunities [4] - The demand for social welfare services, including childcare, education, elderly care, and healthcare, is increasing. By 2025, China aims to provide 4.5 childcare spots per 1,000 children under three, addressing gaps compared to developed countries [4]

"中欧工商界是支持中欧关系发展的中坚力量。"王冠男表示，下一步，中国贸促会将继续与欧洲工 商界密切合作，坚持互利共赢的正确方向，不断加强双方的沟通交流，为中欧经贸合作作出更大贡献。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:施歌】 据王冠男介绍，今年以来，中国贸促会已审批全国各组展单位赴欧洲国家出国展览立项计划373 项，计划展出面积21万多平方米。截至目前，实际执行出国展览项目193项，展出净面积12.6万多平方 米，参展企业6900多家，涉及机械、交通运输、信息通讯、消费品等多个行业领域。 新华社北京10月2日电（记者邹多为）今年是中国和欧盟建交50周年。中国贸促会新闻发言人王冠 男日前表示，中国贸促会着力在推动高层级经贸互动、支持企业赴欧参展、打造高水平合作平台三方面 下功夫，助力中欧经贸合作不断走深走实。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trends in the U.S. debt market, with a notable decrease in yields for various maturities, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [4][5][6] - The mechanical industry in China aims for an average annual revenue growth rate of approximately 3.5% from 2025 to 2026, reflecting a cautious optimism in the sector [4] - The report also notes significant fluctuations in commodity prices, including a decline in crude oil prices by 3.54% to $67.65 per barrel, which may impact related industries [5] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2259.00, down by 0.31%, while the Nasdaq Index increased by 0.48% to 22591.15 [5] - The CME Bitcoin futures rose by 4.91% to $115165.00, indicating a strong performance in the cryptocurrency market [5] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.89% to 26622.88, reflecting positive market sentiment in Hong Kong [5] Industry Insights - The report mentions the introduction of a new youth technology talent visa in China, which could enhance the country's innovation capabilities and attract skilled professionals [4] - The report discusses the implications of U.S. tariffs on foreign-produced goods, particularly in the furniture and film industries, which may affect international trade dynamics [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "Mechanical Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to achieve an average annual revenue growth rate of approximately 3.5% for the mechanical industry, with total revenue exceeding 10 trillion yuan by 2026, while fostering competitive small and medium-sized enterprises and industry clusters with international competitiveness [1][5][26]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The plan is guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts and aims to implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party, focusing on stable progress and the integration of supply and demand [4][25]. - It emphasizes the need for coordinated efforts in technological and industrial innovation to stimulate effective demand and enhance the supply capacity of quality equipment [4][31]. Group 2: Main Goals - The mechanical industry is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend, with resilience and safety in key supply chains continuously improving, aiming for an average annual revenue growth rate of around 3.5% and total revenue surpassing 10 trillion yuan by 2026 [5][32]. - The plan also targets the enhancement of enterprise competitiveness and the cultivation of competitive industry clusters [5][32]. Group 3: Work Measures Expanding Effective Demand - The plan includes measures to tap into existing market potential, promote new demand, and stabilize foreign trade [6][26]. - It emphasizes the importance of updating old equipment and promoting advanced agricultural machinery through subsidies [6][36]. Enhancing Quality Equipment Supply Capacity - The plan calls for the integration of technological and industrial innovation, focusing on enhancing the resilience and safety of supply chains [11][27]. - It aims to support collaborative innovation between enterprises and research institutions to drive technological advancements [11][41]. Stimulating Industry Growth Vitality - The plan proposes nurturing high-quality enterprises and promoting regional coordinated development to enhance the internal dynamics of the mechanical industry [16][53]. - It encourages the establishment of a favorable business environment and the implementation of supportive policies for small and medium-sized enterprises [18][61]. Group 4: Guarantee Measures - The plan stresses the need for coordinated efforts among various departments to ensure the effective implementation of policies that support the mechanical industry's stability [19][26]. - It highlights the importance of monitoring economic operations and establishing a risk warning mechanism to address potential issues in the industry [20][26].

罗俊杰称："高端智能机器人则是布局未来赛道，抢占主动权；再加上大模型、北斗等技术融合赋能，相当于给机械装上'智慧大脑'。" 智能化转型成为发展重要抓手，方案明确实施智能装备创新发展工程，聚焦三大方向发力：瞄准国家战略攻坚工业母机和智能检测装备，对接 民生需求发展智能农机与医疗机器人，布局未来产业攻关高端智能机器人。同时还提出加强通用大模型和机械行业大模型研发，推动人工智 能、北斗导航等技术与装备深度融合。 各地加快数实深度融合，大力推进制造业数字化转型。江苏无锡人形机器人"上岗"新能源产线，赋能产业升级；湖南宁乡先进制造业企业借助 5G、大数据和人工智能技术，打造高度智能化生产车间。 中国机械工业联合会执行副会长罗俊杰称："加大制造业重大技术改造和大规模设备更新工程实施力度，不仅可以为存量市场注入活力，还能 推动高端智能制造技术和绿色节能技术的落地。" 央视网消息：9月29日，工业和信息化部、农业农村部、商务部等六部门联合印发《机械行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》，方案提出 全方位扩大有效需求，聚焦挖掘存量市场潜力，培育新需求，扩大有效投资，推动产业数字化、智能化转型，深化开放合作等内容，供需侧同 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - It is necessary to do a good job in pre - holiday risk management. During the National Day holiday, there are risks of pre - holiday adjustments in the stock index and pre - holiday depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, while there are opportunities in certain commodity sectors after the holiday. The domestic situation shows a greater gap between strong expectations and weak reality, and attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the correction of the current off - peak season expectation. The inflation outlook in the US is clearer, and the Fed has restarted the interest rate cut cycle. Different commodity sectors have different characteristics and investment opportunities [1]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and precious metals on dips [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Holiday Risk and Policy Expectations**: From October 1st to 8th is the National Day holiday in China, with 6 overseas trading days. Historically, the stock index may adjust before the holiday and rise after it, and the RMB exchange rate may depreciate before the holiday and recover after it. After the holiday, there may be opportunities in commodity sectors such as coking coal, steel ore, and non - metallic building materials. The domestic economic pressure increased marginally in August, with weak industrial, investment, and consumption data, and increased external tariff pressure. Recently, the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies. The central bank also proposed to strengthen monetary policy regulation. Six departments issued a steady - growth plan for the machinery industry, aiming for an average annual revenue growth rate of about 3.5% from 2025 - 2026. The scale of new policy - based financial instruments is 500 billion yuan [1]. - **US Economic Situation**: In August, the US ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, the new order improved, and the price index declined again. The CPI increased year - on - year, the PPI growth slowed down, and the new non - farm employment and unemployment rate were worse than expected, supporting the Fed's interest rate cut. The retail sales and new home sales increased. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the federal funds rate target range is now 4.00% - 4.25%. The risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs [1]. - **Commodity Analysis**: The black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the domestic supply - side; precious metals and agricultural products can be concerned due to overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" situation should be focused on. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, but the marginal supply has increased recently. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term. In the chemical industry, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short - term. Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to continue to strengthen [1]. Strategy - Allocate industrial products and precious metals on dips for commodities and stock index futures [2]. To - do News - The six - department plan aims for the machinery industry to achieve an average annual revenue growth rate of about 3.5% from 2025 - 2026 and break through 10 trillion yuan in revenue. The NDRC will continue to implement macro - policies. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd. On September 29th, the A - share market rose, and the financial stocks such as securities firms exploded. The risk of a US government shutdown is high, and the EU will resume sanctions on Iran. Spot gold reached a new high, standing at $3,820 per ounce with a 1.6% intraday increase [4]. Macro - economy No detailed analysis provided, only some relevant charts are mentioned, including the Citi Economic Surprise Index, 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, etc. [5][7][10] Interest Rates No detailed analysis provided, only some relevant charts are mentioned, including the 10Y and 2Y China - US Treasury bond spreads, the US dollar exchange rate, etc. [5][14][16]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Machinery Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for the machinery industry to maintain a stable and positive development trend from 2025 to 2026, with an average annual revenue growth rate of about 3.5% and revenue exceeding 10 trillion yuan [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will focus on the science - technology and AI industries, formulating development guidelines for smart terminals and agents, opening up industry scenarios, and providing computing power subsidies. A new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan will be used to supplement project capital [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Glass prices have rebounded significantly [2]. - Energy: International oil prices have rebounded [2]. Midstream - Chemical: The polyester operating rate is at a medium level [3]. - Energy: Coal consumption by power plants has remained stable [3]. Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in second - tier cities have slightly rebounded [4]. - Services: The number of domestic flights has increased [4]. 2. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Price on 9/29 | YoY Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2288.6 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of eggs | 7.4 yuan/kg | - 4.77% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 9248.0 yuan/ton | 3.08% | | | Spot price of cotton | 14982.5 yuan/ton | - 1.17% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 19.3 yuan/kg | - 1.28% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of copper | 82271.7 yuan/ton | 2.54% | | | Spot price of zinc | 21618.0 yuan/ton | - 1.48% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 20700.0 yuan/ton | - 0.61% | | | Spot price of nickel | 122050.0 yuan/ton | 0.04% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 16856.3 yuan/ton | - 1.14% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price of rebar | 3176.0 yuan/ton | 0.27% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 806.7 yuan/ton | - 1.51% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3357.5 yuan/ton | - 1.54% | | | Spot price of glass | 15.4 yuan/square meter | 7.90% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14775.0 yuan/ton | - 0.73% | | | China Plastic City price index | 790.0 | - 0.17% | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 65.7 dollars/barrel | 5.32% | | Energy | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 69.2 dollars/barrel | 4.82% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3828.0 yuan/ton | 0.90% | | | Coal price | 793.0 yuan/ton | 1.02% | | | Spot price of PTA | 4612.5 yuan/ton | - 0.30% | | Chemical | Spot price of polyethylene | 7345.0 yuan/ton | - 0.14% | | | Spot price of urea | 1621.3 yuan/ton | - 2.04% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1262.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | Real Estate | National cement price index | 135.1 | 0.63% | | | Building materials composite index | 113.3 points | - 1.19% | | | National concrete price index | 91.7 points | - 0.01% | [36]

机械行业占工业经济的比重约为10%，是工业经济"压舱石"。 工业和信息化部、农业农村部、商务部、中国人民银行、海关总署、市场监管总局六部门联合印发《机 械行业稳增长工作方案（2025～2026年）》（下称《工作方案》）于9月29日对外发布。 《工作方案》提出从供需两侧同时发力，多方协同激发行业增长活力，提出3方面14项重点任务和3项保 障措施。 工信部装备工业一司有关负责人表示，当前，机械行业面临着外部冲击影响加大、国内需求不足、非理 性竞争加剧等问题，行业稳定运行面临着挑战。亟需总结上一轮稳增长工作经验，启动实施新一轮稳增 长工作，推动机械行业高质量发展，支撑工业经济稳定运行。 中国机械工业联合会副会长、新闻发言人罗俊杰表示，上半年机械工业经济运行稳中向好，产品产销平 稳增长，对外贸易展现韧性。但也面临有效需求不足、价格内卷压缩利润空间、账款回收难加大经营压 力等挑战。展望全年，宏观政策与产业政策持续发力、各项改革举措加快推出，预计下半年机械工业经 济运行将延续稳中向好的总体态势。 罗俊杰表示，虽然机械工业仍面临不少风险挑战，但宏观政策和产业政策持续加码加力。要坚持科技创 新引领，加快推进产业升级，培育壮大 ...

工信部装备工业一司有关负责人表示，当前，机械行业面临着外部冲击影响加大、国内需求不足、非理 性竞争加剧等问题，行业稳定运行面临着挑战。亟需总结上一轮稳增长工作经验，启动实施新一轮稳增 长工作，推动机械行业高质量发展，支撑工业经济稳定运行。 中国机械工业联合会副会长、新闻发言人罗俊杰表示，上半年机械工业经济运行稳中向好，产品产销平 稳增长，对外贸易展现韧性。但也面临有效需求不足、价格内卷压缩利润空间、账款回收难加大经营压 力等挑战。展望全年，宏观政策与产业政策持续发力、各项改革举措加快推出，预计下半年机械工业经 济运行将延续稳中向好的总体态势。 《工作方案》提出的主要目标是，2025～2026年，机械行业运行保持平稳向好态势，重点产业链供应链 韧性和安全水平持续提升，发展质量效益迈上新台阶，力争营业收入年均增速达到3.5%左右，营业收 入突破10万亿元。重点细分行业规模稳中有升，新质生产力加快培育，企业竞争力进一步增强，优质装 备供给能力显著提高，培育一批具有竞争力的中小企业特色产业集群和具有国际竞争力的产业集群。 培育一批具有竞争力的中小企业特色产业集群。 机械行业稳增长的关键任务首先是要全方位扩大有效需求。 ...

二是提升优质装备供给能力。针对当前机械行业科技创新和产业创新深度融合不够、产业链供应链 风险上升、传统行业转型升级慢、高端装备产品供给不足等问题，提出提升产业创新能力、增强产业链 供应链韧性和竞争力、着力发展智能装备和系统、强化标准引领作用、加强质量品牌建设等5项任务， 加快培育发展新质生产力，提升优质装备供给能力，以高质量供给引领需求、创造需求。 在着力发展智能装备和系统任务中，《方案》明确，实施智能装备创新发展工程，加强通用大模型 和机械行业大模型研发，推动人工智能、量子科技、先进材料、北斗导航等新兴技术与装备融合创新。 亚洲数字经济科学院院长陈柏珲在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，从现有实践来看，以人工智 能技术为代表的新技术，在产业与民生两端均成效显著。在全球科技竞争日益加剧的背景下，利用新技 术发展高端装备是抢占未来产业制高点的关键举措，也将带动相关产业链的发展，推动我国经济向高端 化、智能化转型。 三是激发行业增长活力。针对当前机械行业企业经营压力加大、行业治理水平有待提升等问题，提 出梯度培育优质企业、推动区域协调发展、加大助企惠企力度、营造良好发展生态等4项任务，不断提 升服务企业的能力和水平 ...