中国银河证券宏观经济研究 文/中国银河证券首席宏观分析师 张迪 、 中国银河证券宏观经济分析师助理 铁 伟奥 国 家 统 计 局 最 新 数 据 显 示 ， 2 0 2 5 年 4 月 份 ， 我 国 制 造 业 采 购 经 理 指 数 （PMI）为4 9 . 0%（前值50 . 5%），美国滥施关税影响初现。不过4月政 治局会议已经给出三大重要信号：一是保持国内储备政策的弹性；二是强 化底线思维，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期；三是加紧加快既定 政策的落实落地，加大加力重点领域的政策实施力度。 以下文章来源于中国银河宏观 ，作者中国银河宏观 中国银河宏观 . 国家统计局4月30日发布数据显示，2025年4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%（前值50.5%）。建筑业商务活动指数为51.9%，比上月下降1.5个百 分点；服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，比上月下降0.2个百分点。关税的影响已全面传导至制造业企业。 供需同时收缩，出口影响较为严峻。 4月生产指数49.8%（前值52.6%）。新订单指数49.2%，新出口订单44.7%，分别下降2.6和4.3pct。4月需求下降较大， 尤其是新出口订单 ...

Economic Performance - In the first quarter, Shaoxing's GDP reached 200.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, ranking first in the province [1] - The three major industries showed growth: primary industry added value of 3.9%, secondary industry 7.4%, and tertiary industry 7.1% [1] - Industrial production increased significantly, with a 12.0% year-on-year growth in the added value of large-scale industries [1] Industry Insights - The top ten industries in Shaoxing showed a growth pattern of "eight positive and two negative," with significant increases in high-tech sectors such as computer and electronic equipment manufacturing [1] - Traditional industries also performed well, with chemical raw materials and textile manufacturing growing by 22.1% and 12.0% respectively [1] - The added value growth rates for large, medium, small, and micro enterprises were 3.8%, 10.0%, 16.5%, and 35.6% respectively [1] Future Growth Potential - Shaoxing aims to reach a GDP of 1 trillion yuan within five years, having set a target in early 2022 [2] - The city recorded a GDP of 779.1 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 7.8%, and is projected to reach 836.9 billion yuan in 2024, growing at 6.5% [2] - Fixed asset investment in Shaoxing grew by 4.1% year-on-year, with a notable 15.5% increase when excluding real estate development [2] Trade and Market Challenges - Shaoxing's foreign trade faced challenges, with a total import and export volume of 88.4 billion yuan in the first quarter, down 16.4% year-on-year [2] - Exports decreased by 15.3% to 81.2 billion yuan, while imports fell by 27.1% to 7.2 billion yuan [2] - The local government is actively seeking to support export enterprises in overcoming tariff barriers and expanding market access [3] Strategic Initiatives - Shaoxing is implementing a low-altitude economy development plan, with a significant investment of 2.05 billion yuan for the first phase of a low-altitude infrastructure project [3] - The city is looking to transform its economy by learning from successful peers like Changzhou, which has excelled in advanced manufacturing [3]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇、浦聚颖 摘要 一问：制造业链条的含"美"量？消费电子、文教体娱的直接依赖高，纺织、电气机械偏间接依赖。 出口与营收视角下，考虑直接与间接出口（上下游），消费品行业含"美"量较高，结构上文教体娱、消 费电子以直接依赖为主，而纺织业、电气机械多为间接依赖。 制造业营收对美出口依赖度有所回落，结 构上文教体娱、家具、纺织等依赖度仍高。其中文教体娱、计算机通信以直接依赖为主，分别是6.6%、 6%；纺织业、电气机械等行业考虑间接投入后整体依赖度居前列，分别9.5%、5.5%。 投资视角下，含"美"量较高的行业在制造业投资占比也较高，譬如消费电子、机械设备等行业。 2024年 含"美"量较高的行业投资占制造业投资比重为31.4%。结构上计算机通信(10.9%)、电气机械(9%)等行业 投资占比较高，且近年大幅提升。相比之下，文教体娱、家具、纺织服装等行业投资水平偏低，占制造 业投资比重的降幅也较大，期间分别回落1.3、1.1、 ...

| 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 | | --- | | 联系人： | | 屠强、耿佩璇、浦聚颖 | 出口→营收：关税落地令加征行业出口走弱，营收同步回落，结构上家具、轻工纺服等行业营收对出口 回落的敏感性较高。 上一轮贸易摩擦的实质性冲击于2018年9月开始，加征行业出口交货值超额回落 10.4pct，拖累实际营收增速下滑3.9pct，降幅均超过未加征行业。结构上家具、纺织服装等行业营收受对 美出口的影响较大，关税落地后分别拖累实际营收增速回落0.4、0.9pct。 营收→利润：加征行业利润回落幅度超过营收，主因利润率"超额"下行，但并非行业主动降价。 关税冲 击后，加征行业的利润率同比增量有更大幅度下滑（-1pct），导致利润增速回落幅度(-13.7pct)超过营收 (-4.7pct)。从影响因素看，利润率回落并非加征行业降低出口价格，数据上加征关税行业的出口价格指数 走势与未加征行业保持一致，反而是美国进口价格涨幅接近关税税率涨幅。 利润率"超额"下滑的主因是刚性成本约束，加征行业固定资产周转率下行的同时，成本率与销售费用率 被动抬升。 关税落地后加征行业固定资产周转率下行，自2018年9月2.62降至2 ...

Export Data Overview - In March 2025, China's exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the expected 3.5% and reversing the previous month's decline of -3%[3] - Imports in March 2025 decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and contrasting with a 1.5% increase in the previous month[3] Factors Influencing Export Performance - The primary driver for the March export surge was seasonal effects, as early Spring and a low base from the previous year contributed to higher year-on-year figures[3] - "Rush exports" occurred ahead of tariff increases, with significant contributions from ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa, collectively boosting exports by 4.8 percentage points[3] Future Export Trends - Export growth is expected to decline in Q2 2025, potentially falling between -5% to -10% year-on-year due to the impact of tariff escalations and weakening external demand[4] - Recent logistics data indicates a significant drop in port cargo volumes, suggesting a slowdown in export activity[4] Potential Upside Factors - Signals of tariff exemptions may provide some relief, with an estimated $100 billion worth of products eligible for exemptions, potentially easing export pressures[5] - Continued "rush exports" and shifts in trade patterns towards ASEAN and other regions may sustain some export momentum[5] Risks and Policy Responses - The government is likely to implement policies aimed at mitigating employment risks due to external shocks, focusing on high-tech manufacturing sectors with significant export exposure to the U.S.[7] - If tariffs are enforced as planned, the direct impact on foreign trade revenues could exceed 1.2 trillion yuan for affected industries[7]

Trade Surplus Trends - China's trade surplus remains high, primarily due to the shift from processing trade to general trade, which has reduced import dependency [1][7][8] - From 2013 to 2015, despite a decline in export growth from 7.8% to -2.9%, the trade surplus increased by $192.94 billion [1][7] - The proportion of general trade surplus rose from 24.5% to 73.1% over the past decade, while processing trade fell from 60.4% to 10.4% [1][8] Industry Structure - Trade surpluses are concentrated in consumer goods and capital goods, with significant surpluses in textiles, electrical machinery, and automobiles [1][13][14] - The average surplus for textiles and clothing since 2017 has been $339 billion, showing stability [1][13] - Capital goods such as transportation equipment and electrical devices have seen surpluses increase by 6.7, 2.9, and 3.0 times since the first trade war [1][14] Country Structure - The largest trade surplus is with "Belt and Road" countries, followed by the United States, with the former primarily involving general trade and the latter processing trade [2][24] - As of June 2023, the surplus with "Belt and Road" countries surpassed that with the U.S. for the first time, accounting for 39.0% and 38.5% of total surplus, respectively [2][24] Formation of High Trade Surplus - Consumer goods maintain high surpluses due to self-sufficiency and price advantages, particularly in textiles where China produces 26% of global cotton [3][43] - The automotive sector benefits from technological advancements and cost advantages, with new energy vehicle exports increasing by 355.5% since 2018 [3][54] - In capital goods, the high surplus is driven by reduced processing trade imports and enhanced export competitiveness, with a notable decline in imports of electromechanical products [3][65] Future Surplus Prospects - Industries expected to maintain high surpluses include consumer goods like automobiles and mobile phones, as well as capital goods such as electrical equipment [5][93] - The transition from processing trade to general trade is a key factor in the expanding trade surplus, supported by industrial upgrades and price advantages [5][87] - The automotive sector's import dependency has significantly decreased, with a notable increase in export growth, indicating a strong competitive position [5][93]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the economy, with a focus on policy support and external demand as key drivers for growth [2][3]. Core Insights - The overall economic recovery is still reliant on policy measures and external demand, with internal dynamics such as consumer spending and private investment needing improvement [3][4]. - The production sector shows steady performance, with industrial value-added growth at 5.9% year-on-year for January-February 2025, slightly lower than December 2024's 6.2% [8][10]. - Consumer spending is recovering, with retail sales growth of 4.0% year-on-year in January-February 2025, up from 3.7% in December 2024 [17][21]. - Investment is showing marginal improvement, with fixed asset investment growth at 4.1% year-on-year for January-February 2025, compared to 3.2% for the entire previous year [24][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Production: Steady Performance - Industrial value-added growth for January-February 2025 is 5.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.51% in February [8][10]. - Export-oriented sectors like transportation equipment and automotive show the highest growth rates, while real estate-related sectors remain subdued due to slow downstream demand [10][12]. 2. Consumption: Bright Performance in Services - Social retail sales grew by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February 2025, higher than December 2024's 3.7% [17][21]. - Service retail sales increased by 4.9%, although this is a decline from December's 6.2% [17][21]. - Online consumption shows a significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% in January-February 2025, compared to 1.5% in December 2024 [21][22]. 3. Investment: Marginal Improvement - Fixed asset investment growth is at 4.1% year-on-year for January-February 2025, an increase from 3.2% in the previous year [24][25]. - Real estate investment shows a year-on-year decline of 9.8%, while manufacturing and broad infrastructure investments grow at 9.0% and 10.0%, respectively [25][26]. - The improvement in broad infrastructure investment is primarily driven by high growth in electricity and heat supply investments, which increased by 25.4% [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The economic "opening red" in January-February 2025 is characterized by a relatively realistic expectation of faster improvement, but the sustainability of this trend is worth exploring [1] Economic Overview - The expectations for the economic fundamentals of China and the US have reversed since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the situation at the start of last year. Overall, China's economic stabilization and recovery cannot be deemed strong, but the "weakness of the US" has reinforced positive feedback in market expectations and reality, likely improving confidence in the capital market in the short term [1] - The current economic recovery has not deviated from the seasonal rebound experienced in recent years during the first quarter. The "opening red" is primarily driven by central government investment in infrastructure, while the manufacturing sector is supported by the technology sector. However, the rising trend in housing prices in first-tier cities has not continued [2] Demand and Consumption - Insufficient effective demand is reflected in the divergence between commodity consumption and service production. The "two new" policies have supported a continued recovery in retail sales growth, increasing from 3.7% in December 2024 to 4.0% in January-February 2025. However, the service production index has declined from 6.5% in December 2024 to 5.6% in January-February 2025, indicating potential adjustments in retail data that may inflate commodity consumption performance [2] - The "old-for-new" policy has continued to stimulate retail sales growth, particularly in categories related to communication equipment, home appliances, and cultural office supplies. Basic living goods, such as food and oil, have also seen rapid growth due to the Spring Festival. However, issues such as weak service prices and intense competition in the automotive sector still suppress retail sales in related categories [7] Industrial and Manufacturing Insights - The industrial production growth rate for January-February was 5.9%, slightly down from 6.2% in December 2024. However, the seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth in February was 0.51%, indicating a faster-than-expected start to industrial production this year, particularly driven by high-tech industries [3] - Manufacturing investment growth in January-February reached 9.0%, up from 8.3% in December 2024. The growth in manufacturing is increasingly led by "new quality" industries, such as automotive manufacturing and electronic equipment, reflecting a wave of emphasis on technology from central to local governments [4] Infrastructure and Investment - The "opening red" in infrastructure is primarily supported by central government investment. The broad and narrow definitions of infrastructure growth have shown divergence, with broad infrastructure growth rising to 9.95% from 7.4% in December 2024, while narrow infrastructure growth fell to 5.6% from 6.3% in December 2024 [5] - Short-term challenges exist for local investment in infrastructure, as the issuance of new special bonds remains slow, and high-frequency indicators related to infrastructure construction show low asphalt operating rates compared to historical levels [6] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector has shown improvement in investment and completion rates due to the effects of previous policies. The "926" policy package has led to continuous improvement in real estate financing since the fourth quarter of last year, with commodity housing sales also recovering. However, the market still requires ongoing policy support to stabilize, as second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities have shown a month-on-month decline, and the sales area of commodity housing has decreased [8]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 前言 本文聚焦今年产业层面的重大变化。将所有行业基于一定的共性分为 11 个板块 ，今年或是信息业引领资本 开支（领头羊）。这一判断基于当前的宏观环境依然存在一定的供需矛盾以及有多股力量正合力促进信息 业的发展。信息业的引领下，会有哪些宏观影响？这涉及科技进步的方向以及科技会推广于何处，较难回 答。但若与 2014-2015 年对比，或有区别，彼时借助 4G 的普及以及" C 端补贴"催生了较多消费"新业 态"。参考 2022 年以来的美国，或指向的是互联网企业增加资本开支，互联网企业及"卖铲者"业绩受益。 报告摘要 一、信息业或将再次引领资本开支 根据行业特性（如科技含量、政府参与程度、用途等）可以将全社会固定资产投资分为 11 个板块。将当年 投资增速最快的板块称之为资本开支的领头羊。 我们发现： 1 ）资本开支的领头羊发生过数次更迭 。 2008-2009 年：电气机械； 2010-2013 年：频繁轮动，先后是电子设备、电气机械、汽车、消费品制造 业； 2014- ...

报道 I 投资界PEdaily 开工第一天，广东吹响号角。 今天（2月5日），广东省委、省政府在广州召开2 025年广东高质量发展大会，并面向全 省进行实况直播。产业兴则经济兴，产业强则国家强，这次会上广东省委书记黄坤明发言 聚焦于"现代化产业体系建设"。 回顾2 0 24年，广东省GDP突破14万亿元，稳坐全国"经济第一省"；而江苏位居增量全国 第一，正迎头赶上。对此，广东表态： 拿出具有竞争力的薪酬和岗位，吸纳10 0万高校毕 业生来粤就业创业。 打响产业竞赛。 作者 I 王露 杨文静 同样在今天，安徽、山东、辽宁等省份也召开新春第一会。人勤春来早，蛇年伊始，全国 城市正在打响一场产业竞赛。 点赞DeepSeek 广东要"抢"100万高校毕业生 科技创新，依旧是重点。当前，新一轮科技革命和产业变革正在重塑全球产业版图，能否 建成具有2 1世纪时代特征的现代化产业体系，决定了能否在未来发展和激烈国际竞争中 赢得战略主动。 省委书记黄坤明称，广东要主动作为、前瞻布局，全面优化升级产业体系，冲出中低端、 抢占制高点、致胜新赛道，以更具国际竞争力的现代化产业体系，托起一个勇立时代潮 头、不断向新向上的新广东。 值 ...