Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a phase of adjustment after a rapid rise, with potential for a slow bull market supported by favorable factors. The current market favors growth styles, with emerging opportunities in low-priced stocks [2]. Group 1: Energy and Basic Materials - Coal prices are in a state of fluctuation, with January prices for thermal coal, coking coal, and coke rising by 2%, 4%, and 2% respectively. The coal industry maintains stable profitability and cash flow, with a current dividend yield of 5.3% [9]. - Oil prices have shown a 14% increase month-on-month in January, but a year-on-year decrease of 11%. Geopolitical risks are rising, impacting oil supply and prices [10]. - The prices of non-ferrous metals have seen significant increases, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 35% in January. The demand is supported by AI applications and the proliferation of new energy [11]. Group 2: Industrial Products - The AI industry chain remains highly prosperous, with strong domestic demand for engineering machinery and a projected 18% increase in domestic excavator sales by 2025. The photovoltaic industry is also seeing price recoveries [3]. - The automotive sector is facing a projected 6% decline in sales by November 2025, with a focus on opportunities related to overseas markets and smart driving [3]. Group 3: Consumer Products - Traditional consumer sectors are experiencing a decline, with sales of washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners dropping by 27%, 37%, and 36% year-on-year in December 2025. The effectiveness of consumption support policies is under observation [4]. - The average purchase price of live pigs remains stable at 14 yuan/kg, with a total pig stock of 429.67 million heads by the end of 2025, indicating a relatively abundant supply [4]. Group 4: Technology - The domestic AI application landscape is seeing significant developments, with multiple domestic large models being released. The semiconductor industry remains robust, with global sales increasing by 30% year-on-year in November [5]. - The gaming industry is recovering, with 1,771 game licenses issued in 2025, indicating a positive trend [5]. Group 5: Financials - The stock market sentiment has improved significantly, with insurance premium income rising by 7% year-on-year in December 2025. The average daily trading volume of A-shares exceeded 30 trillion yuan in January [5].

Group 1: Copper Industry - The market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March 2026 is low; short-term declines in gold and silver may negatively impact overall commodity sentiment [5] - Cable companies' operating rates have rebounded week-on-week, but demand may weaken as the Spring Festival approaches; copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [5] - The supply-demand tightness in 2026 remains unchanged, and there is continued optimism for copper price increases [5] Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX plans to deploy one million computing power satellites, further expanding the commercial aerospace demand space [5] - The manufacturing and launch capabilities of reusable rockets are fundamental for large-scale constellation construction [5] - Laser communication networks are key to achieving large-scale inter-satellite communication [5] Group 3: Jiuri New Materials (688199.SH) - Jiuri New Materials expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21 to 31.5 million yuan in 2025, turning from loss to profit year-on-year [5] - The company anticipates a net profit of 14.4 to 21.6 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, also turning from loss to profit year-on-year [5] - The recovery in the price of photoinitiators and the gradual production of new projects are solidifying the company's leading position in the industry [5] Group 4: Keda Manufacturing (600499.SH) - Keda Manufacturing is planning a major asset restructuring to acquire 51.55% of the shares of Tef International, aiming to hold 100% of the shares post-transaction [7] - The transaction is expected to significantly enhance the company's net profit attributable to shareholders [7] Group 5: Tesla (TSLA.O) - Tesla's total revenue for 2025 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year to $94.83 billion, while the Non-GAAP net profit fell by 26.4% to $5.86 billion [8] - In Q4 2025, Tesla's total revenue decreased by 3.1% year-on-year and 11.4% quarter-on-quarter to $24.9 billion, with a Non-GAAP net profit decline of 16.4% year-on-year to $1.76 billion [8] Group 6: Apple (AAPL.O) - Apple's FY1Q26 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 series and the continued penetration of AI features [8] - Despite rising storage costs, Apple managed to maintain and even increase its gross margin through product mix optimization and high-margin service business [8] Group 7: Ausnutria (1717.HK) - Ausnutria is expected to see a 1.1% year-on-year revenue growth in 2025, with a slowdown in growth primarily due to domestic milk powder business challenges [9] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to remain flat year-on-year, with a decline in H2 2025 profits due to slower internal code adjustment progress and intensified industry competition [9]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 02 月 02 日 相关报告 1、《沃什当选与 PPI 提前转 正，谁将成为下阶段市场主要 矛盾———宏观与大类资产周 报》2026-02-01 2、《为什么伊朗局势一波三 折？———国际时政周评》 2026-02-01 3、《金属价格为何如此繁荣— 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年 第 3 期）》2026-01-26 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 2025 年周平均工作时间有所下降 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年第 4 期） 频率：每周 降低就业人员工作时长，有助于增加消费场景，对提升居民消费率有帮助作 用。 定期报告 根据国家统计局的数据，企业就业人员每周平均工作时间为 48.43 小时，低 于 2023 和 2024 年时长，但仍明显高于疫情前的水平。去年，除 1 月外，2- 12 月每周平均工作时间均低于 2023-2024 年同期水平。 工作时长的缩短自然会增加居民的闲暇时间。根据我们的测算扣 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of adhering to Marxism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, and Xi Jinping's thoughts to promote high-quality development and ecological protection in Shanxi [2][3] - The overall strategy includes promoting the transformation of resource-based economies, deepening energy reforms, and establishing new high grounds for opening up inland areas [2][3] Group 2 - The focus is on achieving significant results in high-quality development by expanding domestic demand, improving consumption mechanisms, and increasing effective investment in key projects [7] - The development of new productive forces and the modernization of the economic system are prioritized to maintain reasonable economic growth [7] Group 3 - Major progress has been made in the transformation of the resource-based economy, with significant achievements in energy transition and industrial upgrading [9] - The establishment of a new energy system is underway, with a goal to increase renewable energy capacity by 100 million kilowatts [9] Group 4 - The strategy includes enhancing industrial upgrading, promoting traditional industries, and fostering emerging industries to achieve annual growth rates of over 5% in manufacturing and 8% in the digital economy [10] - Agricultural strategies aim for high-standard farmland to reach 30.5 million acres and grain production capacity to hit 30.5 billion jin by 2030 [10] Group 5 - The innovation system is being enhanced through the implementation of education and talent strategies, aiming for a 10% annual increase in R&D funding and the establishment of additional national laboratories [12] - A talent policy framework is being developed to create a unique talent center in Shanxi [12] Group 6 - The focus on social and cultural development includes promoting core socialist values and enhancing public cultural services to enrich the cultural life of the people [16][17] Group 7 - The quality of life for residents is being improved through employment initiatives, income growth plans, and the establishment of a comprehensive social security system [19] - Urbanization efforts aim for a population urbanization rate of around 71% and the modernization of rural areas [21] Group 8 - Significant achievements in ecological protection are noted, with an increase in non-fossil energy consumption and a reduction in major pollutants, alongside improved resource utilization [23] Group 9 - Safety development capabilities are being enhanced through a shift towards preventive public safety governance and improved disaster prevention measures [25]

由于美国政府停摆风波叠加极端风暴天气缺席共同压制了市场需求，建材供应商此前强劲的盈利势头或 在第四季度遭遇挫折。 市场普遍预计，多家深耕美国市场的建材企业——包括总部位于芝加哥的Amrize Ltd.(AMRZ.US)、丹麦 的Rockwool A/S(RCWBY.US)以及法国的圣戈班集团——第四季度盈利将面临下滑，从而终结此前稳定 的增长态势。 摩根士丹利分析师Cedar Ekblom测算，受益于疫情后翻新热潮与强对流天气频发带来的价格走高和需求 激增，规模达400亿美元的美国屋面材料市场在2019年至2024年间实现了10%的名义复合增长率，但在 2025年，该市场规模下滑了8%。 去年是美国大陆自2015年以来首次没有飓风登陆的一年。这对房主而言是个好消息，但对建筑公司来说 却意味着需求显著放缓。 Ekblom表示，天气因素对屋面材料销量的影响占比最高可达35%，风暴催生的需求锐减，叠加新房建设 活动放缓，整个建材行业均受到了连锁冲击。 美国建材市场另一龙头企业欧文斯科宁(OC.US)首席执行官Brian D.Chambers在去年11月的分析师电话 会议中透露，公司预计四季度屋面材料销量将跌至"近十 ...

智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新数据显示，1月27日，贝莱德增持中国建材(03323)1254.4535万股， 每股作价5.3728港元，总金额约为6739.93万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为3.07亿股，最新持股比例为 8.26%。 （原标题：贝莱德增持中国建材(03323)约1254.45万股 每股作价约5.37港元） ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 580 points or 2.08%, closing at 27,387 points[1] - The National Index dropped by 235 points or 2.5%, closing at 9,317 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 122 points or 2.1%, closing at 5,718 points[1] - Total market turnover was 301.612 billion HKD[1] Currency and Economic Indicators - The RMB/USD central parity rate was adjusted up by 93 pips to 6.9678, the highest since May 16, 2023[1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 477.5 billion RMB reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.4%[1] - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 fell to 49.3, below the market expectation of 50, indicating a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[2] Sector Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 40 points or 1%, at 4,117 points, with a turnover of 1.27 trillion RMB[2] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 94 points or 0.7%, closing at 14,205 points, with a turnover of 1.57 trillion RMB[2] - The ChiNext Index rose by 41 points or 1.3%, closing at 3,346 points, with a turnover of 726.1 billion RMB[2] Corporate Earnings Forecasts - China National Building Material (03323.HK) expects a loss of 2.3 to 4 billion RMB for the year ending December 31, 2025, compared to a profit of 2.387 billion RMB in 2024[4] - China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) anticipates a net profit of 50.8 to 55.8 billion RMB for 2025, a decrease of 10.6% to 18.6% year-on-year[4] - CICC (03908.HK) projects a net profit of 8.542 to 10.535 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 85%[6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is gradually stabilizing after previous adjustments, with opportunities for structural recovery in sectors that are relatively undervalued and have clear fundamentals or expectations [1][6] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Fund Behavior - The wide-based ETF is facing redemption pressure, indicating that institutional funds have not significantly increased their allocation to index-weighted sectors [3] - Market risk appetite has not broadly increased but shows clear structural differentiation, with funds favoring sectors with valuation recovery potential rather than simply returning to blue-chip stocks [3][4] - The consumption chain is identified as a clear allocation direction, with the period leading up to the "Two Sessions" being a critical window for increasing exposure to this sector [4][5] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The consumption chain's performance is not a broad-based rally but exhibits structural characteristics, with some sectors having already recovered valuations and being sensitive to short-term data [4] - The real estate chain is also gaining attention, with some sectors becoming desensitized to new construction data, shifting focus to policy support and industry clearing processes [4][5] - Historical trends suggest that the recovery in the real estate chain typically progresses from downstream to upstream, with current strength in building materials driven by valuation recovery and expectation improvement rather than a comprehensive demand rebound [4][6] Group 3: Strategic Insights - Current market conditions present opportunities, particularly in sectors that are relatively undervalued and have clear logic, which are more likely to achieve excess returns during fund rotation [5] - The period around the "Two Sessions" remains a significant window for policy and expectation, with active trading around macro goals and industry policy directions [5][6] - The transition from "emotional recovery" to "structural validation" is crucial, with the consumption and building materials sectors forming key components of the current market narrative [6]

Core Viewpoint - The newly revised mandatory national standard "Classification of Combustion Performance of Building Materials and Products" (GB 8624-2025) will be implemented on January 1, 2027, marking a significant upgrade in China's building fire safety standards since its last comprehensive revision in 2012 [1][3]. Group 1: Key Changes in the New Standard - The new standard categorizes building materials and products into three main categories and nine subcategories, with building insulation materials further divided into five subcategories, enhancing precision in management [2]. - The scope of application has been significantly expanded to include new classifications, testing methods, and criteria for fire safety performance of building insulation materials and photovoltaic components [2]. - A multidimensional evaluation of combustion performance has been established, incorporating key additional grading information such as smoke production characteristics, burning droplets, and smoke toxicity into a four-dimensional evaluation system [2]. Group 2: Implications of the New Standard - The implementation of the new standard introduces a QR code and electronic labeling system for building insulation materials, creating a comprehensive fire safety supervision scheme from development to application [3]. - The standard provides a technical basis for the development of building-integrated photovoltaics, compelling manufacturers to enhance flame-retardant processes and purifying the market by eliminating substandard products [3]. - The new standard serves as a "safety red line" for building design, a "technical measurement" for material quality control, and a "legal basis" for fire safety acceptance, significantly contributing to the prevention of major fire safety risks in the construction sector [3].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the market, focusing on various sectors including technology, resources, and financial services. The analysis highlights the performance of indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and the Shanghai Composite Index. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - The market is experiencing a weakening momentum, necessitating risk control and attention to the 20-day moving average and external factors affecting resource prices [1][3] - In January, the first three weeks saw strong performance from small-cap indices like CSI 500 and CSI 1000, but a cooling trend began in the third week, with large-cap indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 breaking below the 20-day moving average [2][4] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector is under pressure, with expectations of a prolonged adjustment phase, potentially lasting six months to a year. The previous year's surge of 97.5% in the non-ferrous index makes it unlikely to replicate such gains this year [5][6] - The technology growth sector is showing signs of weakness, with various industries including defense, electronics, and computing experiencing pullbacks [6][7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio with a focus on sectors that are currently undervalued and have a high risk awareness. Caution is recommended for technology growth stocks due to potential short-term volatility [3][4] - Recommended sectors for investment include construction materials, electronics, and communication, which are considered to have a favorable risk-reward ratio [2][12] Market Trends and Predictions - The market is expected to enter a phase of strong oscillation leading up to the Spring Festival, with large-cap indices outperforming small-cap growth indices [8][11] - The brokerage sector is anticipated to enter a bullish cycle, with a potential for upward movement despite current low market sentiment [9][10] Risk Factors - The volatility in global resource prices, such as a 35% drop in silver prices, is impacting related assets and indices, particularly those with significant exposure to non-ferrous resources [4][5] - The potential for further declines in small-cap indices if they do not rebound quickly is a concern, indicating a need for careful monitoring of technical indicators [4][8] Future Outlook - The overall market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, with opportunities for growth anticipated towards the end of 2026. Investors are encouraged to adjust their portfolios accordingly and focus on sectors with solid fundamentals [11][18] Additional Important Content - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring technical indicators such as the 20-day and 5-week moving averages to make timely adjustments to investment positions [4][11] - The discussion includes insights on the cyclical nature of certain sectors, particularly those related to commodities and technology, suggesting a strategic approach to investing in these areas [13][15]