国家统计局新闻发言人表示，三季度GDP增速回落是多种因素共同作用的结果。尽管经济增速有所回 落，但经济稳中有进发展态势没有变。实现全年预期目标（5%左右）有基础有支撑，但也需要付出艰 苦努力。 二是生产继续强于需求。9月工业增加值同比增长6.5%，与9月中国出口增速8.3%相呼应，其中高技术 制造业同比增长10.3%。9月服务业生产指数同比增长5.6%，其中信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业同 比增长12.8%，体现出产业转型升级对经济的支撑力度。 供需分化的"温差"也在价格中有所体现。三季度GDP平减指数为-1.1%，相比二季度的-1.3%略有收窄， 还需要通过改革发力、政策给力来着力缩小"温差"。尽管四季度受高基数影响，经济增速或许会面临一 定挑战，但通过政策发力，相信全年能够顺利实现5%的增长目标。 一方面，消费和出口的韧性仍强。四季度社零增速或在高基数等因素的影响下，有所放缓。但值得关注 的是，目前政策正在加大对服务消费的支持力度，且服务消费的韧性更强，预计最终消费对GDP的支撑 或有望维持一定韧性。今年9月，商务部等9部门印发《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出培育 服务消费促进平台、丰富高品质服务 ...

Economic Growth - Q3 GDP growth rate was 4.8%, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter, with nominal GDP growth at 3.7% compared to 3.9%[1] - The contribution of final consumption, gross capital formation, and net exports to GDP growth was 56.6%, 18.9%, and 24.5% respectively[14] - Q4 economic growth is expected to slightly decline to 4.7%, but achieving the annual growth target of around 5% is considered feasible[15] Industrial Production - In September, industrial added value increased by 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with a month-on-month growth of 0.64%[3] - The capacity utilization rate for industrial enterprises was 74.6% in Q3, up 0.6 percentage points from Q2[21] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.6% year-on-year, contributing 24.7% to overall industrial growth[20] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods in September grew by 3%, down from 3.4% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline[4] - The "trade-in" policy supported certain categories, but overall consumer spending is expected to remain under pressure in Q4 due to reduced fiscal support[32] - The restaurant sector saw a weak performance, with dining revenue growing only 0.9% year-on-year[33] Investment Trends - From January to September, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.5%, marking the first negative cumulative data since August 2020[7] - Real estate development investment fell by 13.9%, while manufacturing investment grew by 4.0%[43] - Infrastructure investment in the electricity, heat, and water production and supply sector increased by 15.3% year-on-year, contributing 1.1 percentage points to overall investment growth[42] Employment and Policy - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in September was 5.2%, showing a slight decline, aided by policies supporting employment for college graduates[8] - The government is gradually prioritizing expanding domestic demand and consumption, indicating a shift towards counter-cyclical measures[34]

Economic Overview - The national economy is expected to show a "high first, low second" trend in 2023, with GDP growth reaching a cumulative rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, exceeding market expectations of 4.8%[2] - Industrial production has significantly rebounded, with a monthly growth of 6.5% in September, up from 5.2% in August, and surpassing the market forecast of 5.23%[2] Demand and Consumption - Weak demand remains a major constraint on economic recovery, with retail sales growing only 3.0% year-on-year in September, down from 3.4% in August, and below the expected 3.11%[2] - Cumulative retail sales growth for the first three quarters stands at 4.5%, indicating a continuous slowdown since May[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment has declined by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, falling short of the expected 0.03% growth, with manufacturing investment at 4.0%, down from 5.1%[2] - Infrastructure investment has also weakened, with a cumulative growth of only 1.1%, significantly below the previous 2.0%[2] Real Estate Sector - Real estate investment has been the largest drag on the economy, with a cumulative decline of 13.9% in the first three quarters, worsening from a 12.9% drop previously[2] - Core indicators such as new construction and sales in the real estate sector continue to show contraction, reflecting a lack of market confidence[3] Future Outlook - GDP growth in the fourth quarter is expected to fall below 5% due to high base effects from last year and ongoing weak demand[2] - The government may need to implement additional policies to stimulate demand and support economic recovery, especially in consumption and investment sectors[2]

一、背景情况 山东省民营经济持续发挥"主力军"作用，成为推动经济增长、促进创新、吸纳就业的重要力量，2024年 全省民营经济增加值占GDP比重达51.7%，新登记经营主体占98.9%。 省统计局立足职能定位，聚焦数据赋能、精准施策，将统计监测、分析研判与服务决策相结合，创新构 建"统计+服务"工作机制，全面助力民营经济高质量发展。 二、主要做法 (一)着力加强民营经济统计工作 一方面，根据民营经济统计监测数据、企业问卷调查及实地调研情况，加强民营经济运行监测，对民营 重点行业、企业打开分析，切实反映民营经济阶段性发展成果，及时发现和解决制约民营经济发展的实 际问题。今年以来，共报送民营经济有关信息、民营经济专题分析40余篇，其中《一季度全省民营经济 运行情况的分析》《关于上半年全省民营经济运行情况的分析》《关于前三季度全省民营经济运行情况 的分析》《关于2024年全省民营经济运行情况的分析》等获省领导同志批示。另一方面，强化部门合 作，联合省工商联开展民营经济发展情况调研，撰写的《关于山东省民营经济转型发展的调研报告》获 得省领导批示。 (三)高效做好民营经济数据提供工作 围绕民营经济发展态势和运行情况，提供 ...

Group 1 - The global financial markets are set to release key economic data this week, with the US September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report being the most anticipated [1] - Major economies including the Eurozone, UK, Canada, and Japan will also release inflation data, which will significantly impact central bank monetary policy directions [1] - The US earnings season continues, and investors are advised to closely monitor these data and events to better gauge market trends [1] Group 2 - On Monday, the focus will be on Eurozone data, particularly Germany's September Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to show negative growth [3] - The US Conference Board Leading Economic Index is also expected to remain negative, indicating potential risks to US economic growth [3] - On Tuesday, Canada's CPI is anticipated to remain below the 2% target, while ECB President Lagarde's speech will be closely watched for insights on economic and interest rate outlooks [3] Group 3 - On Wednesday, the UK CPI data will be released, with market attention on whether the annual rate remains at 3.8% for the third consecutive month [4] - High inflation has previously led to a reassessment of the Bank of England's interest rate cut expectations, which may be influenced by the upcoming inflation report [4] Group 4 - On Thursday, investors will focus on the Eurozone's October Consumer Confidence Index, which has been stable since May [6] - The US initial jobless claims will also be monitored for any significant changes [6] Group 5 - On Friday, Japan's September CPI is expected to accelerate, with the core CPI projected to rise to 2.9% [6] - The US CPI report is anticipated to show an increase to 3.1%, which could influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [8] - Additionally, preliminary manufacturing and services PMI data for October will be released, with particular attention on the pressures facing UK and European manufacturing [8]

Core Points - China's GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, indicating resilience and vitality in the economy [1][2][5] Economic Growth - The GDP growth of 5.2% positions China among the top major economies globally, highlighting its role as a significant growth source for the world economy [5] - The first industry added value was 58.06 billion yuan, growing by 3.8%; the second industry added value was 364.02 billion yuan, growing by 4.9%; and the third industry added value was 592.95 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% [2] Structural Adjustment - The economy is experiencing a steady growth while accelerating structural adjustments, with emerging industries rapidly developing and traditional industries undergoing transformation [7][9] - The rapid growth of emerging industries and the transformation of traditional industries are crucial for supporting high-quality economic development [9] Industrial Production - The industrial production saw a significant increase, with the added value of large-scale industries growing by 6.2% year-on-year, particularly in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing [11] - The service sector's added value grew by 5.4%, indicating stable growth, while retail sales reached 365.877 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [11] Quality and Quantity of Economic Development - The data from the first three quarters reflect an effective improvement in the quality of economic development and reasonable growth in quantity, with measures to boost domestic demand and stabilize foreign trade [13]

Core Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session will review the recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, outlining China's development blueprint for the next five years [1] - China's GDP has consistently surpassed significant milestones during the 14th Five-Year Plan, growing from 103.5 trillion yuan in 2020 to an expected 134.9 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%, significantly higher than the global average of 3.9% [1][2] - The contribution rate of China's economy to global growth has remained around 30% during the 14th Five-Year Plan, establishing it as a key driver of world economic development [1] Economic Performance - China's R&D investment has reached new heights, with an intensity of 2.69% in 2024, surpassing the EU average; the total number of R&D personnel exceeds 7 million [2] - The "new economy" sector's contribution to GDP is projected to reach 18.01% in 2024, an increase of 1.5 percentage points since 2020 [2] - The service sector's average contribution to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 is 60.6%, with an annual growth rate of 5.9% [2][3] Urbanization and Income Distribution - By the end of 2024, the urbanization rate is expected to reach 67%, an increase of 3.11 percentage points from 2020; the ratio of disposable income between urban and rural residents has decreased from 2.56 in 2020 to 2.34 in 2024 [3] - The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 is 86.8%, with final consumption expenditure contributing 59.9%, an increase of 11.1 percentage points compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan [3] Energy and Environment - China has established the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, with non-fossil energy consumption rising from 16.0% in 2020 to 19.8% in 2024 [4] - The production of new energy vehicles is expected to increase more than eightfold from 2020 levels by 2024, maintaining the world's leading position for ten consecutive years [4] - The average air quality in cities is projected to improve, with 87.2% of days classified as good by 2024, an increase of 2.4 percentage points since 2020 [4] Agricultural and Industrial Growth - Grain production is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin in 2024, ensuring food security for the population [5] - The manufacturing sector's value added is projected to grow at an average rate of 5.4% from 2021 to 2024, maintaining a global share close to 30% [5] - The scale of China's social security network has expanded, with urban unemployment rates stabilizing between 5.1% and 5.5% from 2021 to 2024 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a crucial period for China's modernization towards 2035 and high-quality economic development, guiding the direction for the next five years [4][3]. Strategic Deployment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" serves as a key five-year period towards the 2035 modernization goal and is essential for high-quality economic development [4][3]. Industry Planning - Key industries to focus on during the "15th Five-Year Plan" include technology (new quality productivity), finance, agriculture, and energy [5]. - Long-term strategic goals include achieving a 70% urbanization rate by 2028, completing debt tasks from 2024 to 2028, reaching carbon peak by 2030, and achieving a 90% application rate for artificial intelligence [5]. Achievements from the 14th Five-Year Plan - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's GDP grew at an average rate of 5.5%, reaching 134 trillion RMB, with per capita GDP increasing from 10,632 USD in 2020 to 13,445 USD in 2024 [6]. "Two Major" Projects - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the "Two Major" projects, which focus on implementing national strategic initiatives and enhancing security capabilities in key areas [8]. - Significant projects include the Sichuan-Tibet Railway, Western Land-Sea New Corridor, and the National Water Network, with a planned investment of 800 billion RMB for 1,459 projects by 2025 [9]. Technological Innovation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will shift China's technological development model from factor-driven to innovation-driven and demand-driven [15]. - Key industries identified for technological focus include high-end intelligent manufacturing, critical technology sectors, new infrastructure in communications, artificial intelligence, and energy reform [15][16]. Financial Development - The "Financial Power" initiative aims to enhance China's financial competitiveness, focusing on six key areas: strong currency, strong central bank, strong financial institutions, strong international financial center, strong financial regulation, and strong financial talent [28][29]. - China's financial competitiveness ranking improved from 41.2 in 2020 to 45.3 in 2024, moving from 8th to 4th globally [36]. Consumer Spending and Economic Growth - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to stimulate consumer spending by increasing residents' income and reducing consumption burdens through optimized fiscal spending [50][53]. - Key sectors for potential consumer growth include the "silver economy," health services, and new consumption patterns driven by increased government investment in education, healthcare, and elderly care [62]. Social Welfare and Public Services - The "15th Five-Year Plan" addresses challenges in public service equality, income stability, and the aging population [61]. - Key investment themes include health and childcare services, human capital services, and emerging consumption sectors [63].

Core Insights - The report analyzes China's potential economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, estimating a baseline growth rate of 4.5%-5.3% and an optimistic scenario of 5.1%-5.8% [1][9][43]. Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The baseline scenario predicts an average annual growth rate of approximately 5.3%, while the optimistic scenario could reach 5.8% [1][28]. - If actual growth meets potential levels, per capita GDP could reach approximately $17,200 by 2030 and $22,400 by 2035 [1][28]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Growth - Capital stock growth is expected to average around 5.5% annually, contributing approximately 2.1 percentage points to GDP growth, despite a slowdown due to declining savings and investment rates [2][17]. - Labor force decline due to aging demographics is projected to reduce GDP growth by about 0.08 percentage points annually, despite improvements in labor quality [2][21]. - Total factor productivity (TFP) is anticipated to be a key growth driver, with baseline annual growth around 2% and optimistic growth potentially reaching 3% [2][27]. Group 3: Recommendations for Sustaining Growth - The report suggests multiple strategies to mitigate the decline in potential growth, including enhancing innovation, optimizing factor allocation, and improving population policies [3][47]. - It emphasizes the need to expand domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market to find new growth models [3][49]. - The report advocates for a balanced approach to total and structural relationships, focusing on cultivating new productivity systems and responding effectively to external environmental changes [3][47].

Group 1: Economic Overview - The US economy is experiencing marginal slowdown, with both manufacturing and service sectors showing decreased activity, and the labor market showing signs of fatigue [1] - In Europe, the economy is stabilizing under the influence of continuous interest rate cuts, leading to increased credit growth for households and businesses, although structural issues and energy bottlenecks persist [1] - Japan's economy remains relatively stable with rising household income and improved consumer confidence, but faces new challenges from US tariffs and yen appreciation impacting manufacturing and exports [1] Group 2: Asset Outlook - US Treasury yields are expected to decline towards 3.5% as the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, with European bond yields also expected to decrease due to easing inflation pressures [2] - The US dollar is anticipated to weaken due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the differing monetary policy trajectories among the US, Eurozone, and Japan [2] - Short-term pressures on gold prices are noted due to increased margin requirements and prior price surges, while medium-term support remains strong from fiscal debt, monetary easing, and sovereign gold purchases [2]