1、国家发改委：正在完善民企参与国家重大项目建设长效机制，今年还将推出总投资规模约 3 万亿元 优质项目。 2、金融监管总局副局长丛林：已设立 74 只私募股权投资基金，支持投资科技创新企业。 3、英国和美国已经就关税贸易协议条款达成一致。英国政府同意进口美国食品和农业产品方面作出让 步，以换取美方降低对英国汽车出口的关税。 资金面：融资额+72.20 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率-11.80bp 至 1.5390%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-2.67bp 至 3.0673%，十年期国债利率-1.28bp 至 1.6330%，信用利差-1.39bp 至 143bp；美国 10 年期利率-4.00bp 至 4.26%，中美利差+2.72bp 至-263bp。 文字早评 2025/05/09 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.28%，创指+1.65%，科创 50-0.36%，北证 50+0.98%，上证 50+0.33%，沪深 300+0.56%， 中证 500+0.41%，中证 1000+0.76%，中证 2000+1.09%，万得微盘+1.75%。两市合计成交 12934 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: May 9, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The trends of the three major oils are quite different. The Malaysian crude palm oil futures have fallen to an 8 - month low, and the Dalian palm oil has also declined due to increased supply, weak exports, and pressure from the falling crude oil market. However, the lower price of palm oil compared to soybean oil may improve future exports and limit the price decline. Technically oversold conditions may also lead to price rebounds, and in the short - term, palm oil may fluctuate narrowly again. The expected increase in imported soybeans may ease the tight supply of soybean oil and potentially lower the basis in the future. Rapeseed oil is strongly affected by import policies, with a significant year - on - year decline in future purchase forecasts, showing a relatively strong performance. Attention should be paid to policy changes such as tariffs and US biodiesel policies [7] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Jiangsu market soybean oil basis price: First - grade soybean oil, spot 09 + 400, June - September 09 + 300; Third - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 150. In May, the basis quotes of rapeseed oil traders in East China and Guangxi: Third - grade rapeseed oil in Qinfang factories 09 + 0. For 24 - degree palm oil in East China, from May 20 to June 15, the delivery price is P09 + 480 yuan/ton, and from June 25 to July 25, it is P09 + 400 yuan/ton [7] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was 1.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.62%. Reuters estimates that in April, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.62 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports were 1.1 million tons, consumption was 338,000 tons, and inventory was 1.794 million tons. Bloomberg estimates that production was 1.62 million tons, exports were 1.13 million tons, imports were 70,000 tons, consumption was 325,000 tons, and inventory was 1.79 million tons [8] 3.2 Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was estimated at 1.73 million tons, a 24.62% month - on - month increase. Reuters estimated April production at 1.62 million tons, imports at 50,000 tons, exports at 1.1 million tons, consumption at 338,000 tons, and inventory at 1.794 million tons. Bloomberg estimated production at 1.62 million tons, exports at 1.13 million tons, imports at 70,000 tons, consumption at 325,000 tons, and inventory at 1.79 million tons [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China, palm oil basis changes, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China, the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in East China, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate [10][19][21][26][27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise in April, marking the second consecutive month of increase as the industry approaches its production peak season [1][2]. - The forecast for April includes an expected import volume of 162 thousand tons, which represents a 16.9% increase compared to previous data [2]. - The anticipated export volume is projected at 110 thousand tons, reflecting a 9.7% increase [2]. - Domestic consumption is expected to reach 179 thousand tons, showing a 14.8% increase [2]. - The ending inventory for April is forecasted to be higher than the previous month, indicating a trend of increasing stock levels in the palm oil market [1][2]. Group 2 - The April data for 2024 shows an import volume of 150.19 thousand tons, with a domestic consumption of 123.42 thousand tons and an ending inventory of 174.45 thousand tons [2]. - The March data for 2025 indicates an import volume of 138.72 thousand tons and an ending inventory of 156.26 thousand tons [2].

油脂日报 | 2025-05-08 利空因素叠加，油脂易跌难涨 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约7914.00元/吨，环比变化-60元，幅度-0.75%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7786.00 元/吨，环比变化+26.00元，幅度+0.34%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9335.00元/吨，环比变化+119.00元，幅度+1.29%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8530.00元/吨，环比变化-120.00元，幅度-1.39%，现货基差P09+616.00，环比变 化-60.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8120.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.12%，现货基差Y09+334.00， 环比变化-16.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9490.00元/吨，环比变化+120.00元，幅度+1.28%，现货基差 OI09+155.00，环比变化+1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：BMD马来西亚棕榈油期货7月合约收盘下跌65林吉特，跌幅1.71%，报3,727林吉特/吨（约合 880.05美元/吨）。阿根廷豆油(5月船期)C&F价格1028美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调52美 ...

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 5 月 8 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | A 87 | 前结算价 : | 开盘价 : | 最高价 | 最低价 : | | 收盘价 涨跌:涨跌幅 | | : 成交变 : | 持仓量 | 持企业变化 | | --- | --- ...

油脂油料产业日报 2025/05/07 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 5 月 7 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 华东一级豆油：y2509+280，6-9 月。华南菜油贸易商报价：三级菜油 09+40-50。 华东基差报价下调：港口 2 ...

油脂持续下挫 一、农产品板块综述 五一假期后油脂板块持续下跌,棕榈油领跌,马棕油产区进入增 产季,产量增幅大于出口增幅,库存有继续回升预期,压制棕榈油期 价大幅下跌,预计后市仍将偏弱运行。鸡蛋眺空下行,蛋鸡存栏高位, 老鸡淘汰缓慢,鸡蛋供应充足,五一期间团体采购停滞,需求减少, 鸡蛋现货价格持续下行,期价亦跳空大跌,预计后市将继续拓展下行 空间。苹果冲高回落,大幅波动,五一假期苹果走货顺畅,库存偏低, 产区新季苹果受到不利天气影响,坐果欠佳,支撑苹果价格,预计后 市苹果期价将高位波动。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕榈油:扩大跌幅 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约五一后继续扩大跌幅,弱势展 开: 1.棕榈油产地增产顺利,市场预期马来西亚棕榈油库存继续累库, 施压棕油期价。MPOA 和 SPPOMA 两家协会预计 4 月马棕榈油产量环 比分别增长 24.62%和 17.03%,而出口增幅相对较小,产量增幅大于 出口增幅或令马棕榈油库存上升。市场关注 MPOB 即将公布的月度供 需报告,预计该报告将调增马棕榈油 4 月产量和库存,带来偏空影响。 同时印尼 B40 政策无进展,市场对棕榈油消费信心不足。 2.国内 ...

2025/5/6 09:55 【国富棕榈油研究周报】产地供应预期转宽松，棕榈油价格下⾏ 20250506 【国富棕榈油研究周报】产地供应预期转宽松，棕榈油价格下行 20250506 2025年05月06日 07:47 上海 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3x1d-Yrn_rLIKwOPjo8gYg 1/16 | í | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | í i | 产区天气 . | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | ιί | 国际供需 | | 1. | 马棕4月预测 | | 2. | 其他重要资讯 | | 四、 | 国内供需 | | | 1. 进口利润 | | 2. | 棕榈油成交 8 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | 3. | FOB 报价 ... | https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3x1d-Yrn_rLIKwOPjo8gYg 2/16 20 ...

专题报告 2025-05-06 油脂：马棕增产累库或推动油脂下行 报告要点： 上一篇公众号推文中，我们认为未来棕榈油若要走出明确上升或下跌趋势，需要原油、产量、 需求端提供新的驱动，一是 4、5 月产量恢复明显，走累库预期；或原油大幅回落，需求下降， 估值受损；或两者叠加，触发大幅下跌场景；二是棕榈油产量在 7 月之前都未能上量，刚好适 应需求，宏观经济企稳，大豆、菜籽种植出现天气问题，容易形成高位震荡场景。 目前来看，情景一大概率触发，油脂可能回落。此外，市场讨论供应端欧洲菜籽减产、产地菜 籽库存较低及需求端美豆油生柴政策的利多。欧洲因平均气温偏低，其菜籽生长时间较长，前 期干旱程度达到历史级别，不过近期降雨恢复，减产程度仍需进一步考证。加拿大菜籽可外售 库存按加拿大统计局口径所剩无几，按 USDA 口径则还有一定出口量，其盘面价格近期持续上 涨，也反映了其国内菜籽供应偏紧局面。然而国内菜油库存较高，在棕榈油产地主动让价、豆 油供应充足的局面下，国内菜油去库难度后续也有待考验。美豆油生柴政策因预期掺混义务增 加豆油需求潜力进一步增大，预计形成每年 50-100 万吨级的需求增加，但具体细则以及对外 国原料的 ...