Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, reaching a historical high of $4,322.04 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising global tensions and economic uncertainty [1][2] - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a growing recognition of gold as a store of value and a hedge against inflation [2][18] - The rapid increase in gold prices may lead to potential adjustments and increased volatility in the market [2][18] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices are supported by tight supply conditions and high smelting output, despite the smelting profits being at breakeven levels [2][19] - Investment in electric grids continues to grow, while other sectors like real estate show weakness, indicating mixed demand dynamics for copper [2][19] - The recent mining accident in Indonesia is likely to create a supply gap in the global copper market, providing long-term support for copper prices [2][19] Group 3: Oil - Oil prices have shown a downward trend, with recent geopolitical developments, including a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, influencing market sentiment [3][12] - OPEC projects a significant increase in global oil demand, with an expected rise of 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.38 million barrels per day next year [3][12] - Short-term oil prices may face downward pressure despite the anticipated demand growth [3][12] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated a potential extension of tariff exemptions on China if strict rare earth export controls are lifted, signaling ongoing trade negotiations [6] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed openness to equal consultations with the U.S. regarding trade issues, highlighting the importance of mutual respect [7] - Domestic industrial enterprises are accelerating equipment upgrades, with a notable increase in machinery procurement, indicating a positive trend in capital investment [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the strategy [3] Report's Core View - Strong export data of Malaysian palm oil provides short - term support to the oil market despite high inventory and Sino - US trade tensions [2] Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday's closing price of palm oil 2601 contract was 9322.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 8 yuan (- 0.09%); soybean oil 2601 contract was 8252.00 yuan/ton, + 12.00 yuan (+ 0.15%); rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9932.00 yuan/ton, - 27.00 yuan (- 0.27%) [1] Spot - In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9210.00 yuan/ton, - 60.00 yuan (- 0.65%), with a spot basis of P01 + - 112.00, - 52.00 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8430.00 yuan/ton, - 10.00 yuan/ton (- 0.12%), with a spot basis of Y01 + 178.00, - 22.00 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10240.00 yuan/ton, - 20.00 yuan (- 0.19%), with a spot basis of OI01 + 308.00, + 7.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information Brazil's Soybean - IBGE's October monthly report shows that Brazil's expected soybean planting area this year is 47.7 million hectares, up 0.1% from last month's forecast and 3.6% from last year; expected output is 165.866 million tons, down 0.0% from last month's forecast and up 14.4% from last year; expected yield is 3478 kg/hectare, down 0.1% from last month's forecast and up 10.4% from last year [2] Malaysia's Palm Oil - AmSpec data shows Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15 were 781,006 tons, up 12.3% from the same period last month; ITS data shows exports were 862,724 tons, up 16.2% from the same period last month [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term outlook for the oil and fat market is for a volatile trend. When there are significant price corrections, investors can consider buying at low prices. The report also analyzes the fundamentals of different oils and provides corresponding trading strategies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot prices and basis**: The closing prices of 2601 contracts for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 8240 (down 28), 9330 (down 34), and 9959 (down 63) respectively. The basis for each oil in different regions shows various trends, with some remaining stable and some having small changes [3]. - **Monthly spreads**: For the 1 - 5 monthly spreads, soybean oil is 222 (down 14), palm oil is 108 (down 32), and rapeseed oil is 495 (up 57) [3]. - **Cross - variety spreads**: In the 01 contract, the Y - P spread is - 1090 (up 6), the OI - Y spread is 1719 (down 35), the OI - P spread is 629 (down 29), and the oil - meal ratio is 2.84 (up 0.02) [3]. - **Import profits**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 159, and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 815 [3]. - **Weekly commercial inventories**: In the 41st week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 126.5, 54.8, and 57.1 million tons respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous week and the same period last year [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International market**: Indonesia may regulate crude palm oil exports to ensure domestic supply for biodiesel production. The plan to increase to B50 in the second half of 2026 may reduce global edible oil supply [5]. - **Domestic market**: - **Palm oil**: As of October 10, 2025, the national palm oil commercial inventory decreased by 0.46 million tons (0.83%) compared to the previous week. The import profit inversion has narrowed. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and long positions can be considered on significant corrections [6]. - **Soybean oil**: The soybean crushing volume and开机率 decreased last week. As of October 10, 2025, the soybean oil commercial inventory increased by 1.64 million tons (1.31%) compared to the previous week. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and long positions can be considered on significant corrections [6][9]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The rapeseed crushing volume and开机率 decreased last week. As of October 10, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons. The import profit inversion has expanded. The de - stocking trend is expected to continue, and attention should be paid to buying and policy changes [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral trading**: It is expected that the oil and fat market will fluctuate in the short - term. Long positions can be considered on significant corrections [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot basis of different oils in different regions, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads, etc., to help analyze the market trends of oils and fats [14][17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatility [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak volatility [2] - Rolled steel: Weak volatility [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50: Volatility [2] - CSI 300: Volatility [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong volatility [4] - Silver: Strong volatility [4] - Logs: Increased volatility [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Volatility [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 1: Bearish volatility [6] - Live pigs: Weak volatility [8] - Rubber: Volatility [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Volatility [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side uncertainties, with weak unilateral drivers for iron ore and varying trends for other products [2] - The financial market shows mixed trends in stock indexes and bonds, with gold and silver expected to be strong due to various factors [4] - The light industry products have different price trends based on supply, demand, and cost factors, such as logs with increased volatility and pulp in consolidation [6] - The agricultural products face challenges in supply and demand, with livestock products like live pigs having a weak short-term outlook and rubber showing volatility [8] - The polyester industry has complex supply-demand relationships, with different products having different investment ratings and price trends [9] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply concerns arise from pricing disputes and accidents, with short-term focus on steel demand and potential negative feedback [2] - Coking coal and coke: Tariff expectations and supply factors influence the market, with coke's first-round price increase implemented and second-round likely to fail [2] - Rolled steel: Static valuation is low, supply pressure is significant, and demand recovery in October is crucial, with high inventory and weak demand putting pressure on prices [2] - Glass: Supply and demand show no significant improvement, with inventory accumulation and weak demand due to the real estate downturn, and potential policy impact on the future [2] Financial Market - Stock indexes: Most indexes show negative trends, with market sentiment affected by trade and economic data, and investors advised to control risk [4] - Bonds: Treasury bond yields show slight fluctuations, with the central bank's open market operations affecting liquidity, and long-term bonds showing a slight upward trend [4] - Precious metals: Gold and silver are expected to be strong due to factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies [4] Light Industry - Logs: Supply is expected to increase after the holiday, with demand gradually recovering, and prices likely to be more volatile [6] - Pulp: Cost support weakens, demand improvement is uncertain, and prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: Production is stable, demand may improve with new tenders, but price profit is low, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - Oils and fats: Supply is abundant, demand is weak after the holiday, and prices are expected to continue wide-range fluctuations, with attention on production and sales in relevant regions [6] - Meal products: Supply is expected to increase, demand is limited, and prices are expected to be bearish, with attention on soybean planting and imports [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with a possible widening of the price difference between fat and lean pigs [8] - Rubber: Supply pressure varies by region, demand shows some improvement, and inventory is decreasing, with prices likely to fluctuate widely [8] Polyester Industry - PX: Supply increases and demand decreases, with prices following oil price fluctuations and PXN spreads under pressure [9] - PTA: Cost support may weaken, supply and demand improve marginally, and prices follow cost fluctuations [9] - MEG: Supply pressure increases, with expected medium-term oversupply, and short-term cost fluctuations affecting prices [9] - PR: The market is sluggish with no strong support from raw materials and supply-demand, and attention is on factory sales and downstream follow-up [9] - PF: Downstream demand is stable, external negative sentiment eases, and prices are expected to stabilize [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider buying on dips. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8268 with a decline of 34. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8488, 8588, and 8448 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 320, 220, and 180 respectively, with Tianjin's basis rising by 10. For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 9364 with a decline of 74. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 9284, 9364, and 9484 respectively. The basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were - 80, 0, and 120 respectively. For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 10022 with a decline of 39. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10342. The basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong was 320, with increases of 30 and 20 respectively [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil was 236 with a decline of 14; that of palm oil was 140 with a decline of 32; and that of rapeseed oil was 438 with a decline of 21 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was - 1096 with an increase of 40; the OI - Y spread was 1754 with a decline of 5; the OI - P spread was 658 with an increase of 35; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.82 with a decline of 0.02 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 182, with a CNF price of 1110.5 for the November shipment. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 815, with a FOB price of 1100 for the November shipment [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 39th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 124.9 million tons (last week: 123.6 million tons, same period last year: 115.6 million tons); that of palm oil was 55.2 million tons (last week: 58.5 million tons, same period last year: 50.6 million tons); and that of rapeseed oil was 58.3 million tons (last week: 58.6 million tons, same period last year: 41.0 million tons) [3]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From October 1 - 10, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 6.02% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.11% month - on - month, and the output increased by 6.59% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of September 26, 2025 (the 39th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 55.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.29 million tons (5.62%) from last week, at a moderately high level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation was stable with a slight decline, and the import profit inversion narrowed to around - 180. The basis was stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and one can consider lightly buying on significant dips. Later, pay attention to Indonesia's B50 policy progress and Malaysia's palm oil output in October [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 114.28 million tons, with an operating rate of 37.04%, a decrease from the previous week, at a low level in the same period of history. As of October 10, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 126.51 million tons, an increase of 1.64 million tons (1.31%) from last week, at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The basis was stable. In the later period, as soybean arrivals decrease and soybean crushing declines from the high level, the soybean oil inventory may slightly decrease, but overall, the inventory is not in short supply. The spot market lacks highlights, with average trading volume and slow pick - up. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and one can consider buying on significant dips [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 1.4 million tons, with an operating rate of 3.73%, a decrease from the previous week. As of September 26, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 58.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons (2.2%) from the previous week, still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory was continuously decreasing marginally. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil increased to around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil widened to around - 800. The market still had the sentiment of holding back sales at high prices, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with an increase. It is expected that the de - stocking trend in coastal areas will continue. The market expects a possible easing of China - Canada relations, causing rapeseed oil prices to decline. Currently, the domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much, but overall, the marginal de - stocking of rapeseed oil supports the price. Continue to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [9]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side**: It is expected that the oil and fat market will fluctuate in the short term, and one can consider buying on dips [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [11]. - **Options**: Wait and see [11]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil; the 1 - 5 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil; and the 01 spreads of Y - P and OI - Y [14][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. The market trends of each commodity are analyzed based on factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and trade policies. The report suggests corresponding trading strategies for each commodity, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro influences increase, and the volatility of meal products widens. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices decline. South American soybean exports to China offset the decrease in US soybean exports. It is recommended to short the soybean meal 05 contract at high points, hold long positions in rapeseed meal, and conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: Typhoon weather is favorable for the market. ICE and London sugar prices decline. Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic sugar market is affected by the typhoon. It is expected that the international sugar price will fluctuate within a range, and the domestic sugar price will also show a short - term oscillatory trend [17][18][20]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Sino - US tariffs resurface, and the market maintains a short - term oscillatory trend. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increases in September, and domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory. It is recommended to wait and see first and consider lightly going long on dips [21][22][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: New grain is concentrated on the market, and the price oscillates at the bottom. The US corn price is weak, and domestic new - crop corn is abundant. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn contract on dips, and gradually establish long - term long positions in the 05 and 07 corn contracts [24][25][27]. - **Hogs**: The pressure of slaughter continues to be reflected, and the spot price continues to decline. Hog prices fall in various regions, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is recommended to short at high points and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [27][28][29]. - **Peanuts**: Harvest is affected by rainfall, and peanuts are short - term bullish. The average price of peanuts declines slightly, and the inventory of peanut oil manufacturers changes. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 peanut contracts lightly [30][31][32]. - **Eggs**: Oscillate weakly. Egg prices decline, and the inventory of laying hens is high. It is recommended to short near - month contracts at high points [33][34][36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate slightly bullishly. Apple inventory decreases, and new - crop apples are affected by rainfall. It is expected that the price will oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [37][38][42]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate slightly bearishly. ICE cotton prices decline. The Sino - US trade war affects cotton consumption. It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton price will oscillate slightly bearishly [43][44][46]. Black Metals - **Steel**: US tariff increases put slight pressure on steel prices. The black sector oscillates weakly, and steel inventories accumulate. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar at low points [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Long positions can be lightly established on dips. The market may be affected by macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is recommended to go long on dips [50][51][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach at high levels. Global iron ore shipments increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge at high levels in the spot market and conduct reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [53][54][56]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is not high, and short positions can be reduced during macro - shocks. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable to weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions during macro - shocks [56][57][58]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trade disputes resurface, and they are driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Gold and silver prices rise, and the US dollar index and bond yields decline. It is recommended to go long at low points [59][60][62]. - **Copper**: Tariffs cause a short - term setback in copper prices, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Copper prices decline, and the supply is tight while consumption is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [64][65][67]. - **Alumina**: The weak trend due to supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The price of alumina declines, and the supply exceeds demand. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating and bottom - grinding trend [69][70][71]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Weakens with the increase in tariff policies, but the scrap aluminum price may be relatively firm. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy declines. The impact of tariffs is expected to be less severe than in April. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies [74][75]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The short - term volatility increases due to panic sentiment, and the medium - term bullish trend remains unchanged. The price of electrolytic aluminum declines. The impact of tariffs is limited, and the medium - term price may strengthen [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: There is obvious support below, and the zinc price may rebound. The domestic zinc price is under pressure, and the overseas price is strong. It is recommended to close out profitable short positions and go short again at high points [79][80][82]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and be wary of the lead price falling after rising. The lead price rises, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. It is recommended to be cautious as the price may fall after rising [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: Volatility increases, and the price center moves down. The LME nickel price declines, and the inventory increases. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to decline [88][89][91]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates downward. The stainless steel inventory increases, and the price is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93][95]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: Go long at the lower end of the range. Some silicon plants experience production disruptions, and the demand is strong in the short term. It is recommended to go long near the low point of the September disk [95][96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - side expectations are intertwined with weak reality. The US government cancels some energy projects. The polysilicon market is affected by production increases and potential cuts [97][98].

Report Information - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Researcher Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - East China's third-grade rapeseed oil: Spot price is OI2601 + 270, and from October to November it is OI2601 + 280. East China's first-grade rapeseed oil in October is OI2601 + 390. East China market's first-grade soybean oil basis prices vary by months. Guangdong traders' palm oil quotes are temporarily stable [7]. Core View - In the short term, the palm oil market may face technical adjustments due to a rapid price increase, with potential profit - taking and reduced buying demand, leading to a callback risk. The same situation applies to soybean oil and rapeseed oil. In the long term, Indonesia's plan to implement the mandatory B50 biodiesel program in the second half of 2026 may tighten palm oil supply and support prices. The oil and fat sector is dominated by long - position funds, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and roll long positions [8]. 2. Industry News - In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.8412 million tons, a 0.73% month - on - month decrease; imports were 78,400 tons, a 33.95% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.4276 million tons, a 7.69% month - on - month increase; and the end - of - month inventory was 2.361 million tons, a 7.2% month - on - month increase [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including spot prices and basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as exchange rate charts [13][14][28]

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 9004 | 9250 | 9364 | 9204 | 9360 | 356 | 3.95% | 56876 | 96520 | 7060 | | P2601 | 90616 | 9452 | 9580 | 9438 | 9570 | 380 | 4.13% | 509596 | 379054 | 46907 | | Y2605 | 7876 | 7996 | 8096 | 7972 | 8074 | 198 | 2.51% | 60570 | 224422 | 5157 | | Y2601 | 8114 | 8212 | 8340 | 8212 | 8332 | 218 | 2.69% | 336990 | 506255 | -8109 | | O1605 | 9522 | 9619 | 9749 | 9617 | 9729 | 207 | 2.17% | 13285 | 52813 | 254 | | OI601 | 10046 | 10160 | 10266 | 10129 | 10248 | 202 | 2.01% | 209869 | 329150 | 25710 | [7] Spot Price and Basis - East China third - grade rapeseed oil: Spot price is OI2601 + 270 (October - November: OI2601 + 280). East China first - grade rapeseed oil in October is OI2601 + 390. - East China first - grade soybean oil basis price: November - January is 01 + 230, December - February is 01 + 240, January - March is 01 + 200, April - July is 05 + 250. - Guangdong traders' palm oil quotes: Dongguan factories' 24 - degree palm oil is 01 - 70; Dongguan Chunjin's 24 - degree palm oil is 01 + 0. [7] Core View - After the holiday, the three major oils strongly made up for losses. The palm oil main contract P2601 was the strongest, with a gain of over 4%. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release an official monthly report on October 10. A survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September will decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production. - Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel blending project, raising concerns about tight palm oil supply. - Near - term rapeseed oil continues the de - stocking trend, with relatively concentrated supply. Traders mainly hold prices for shipment, and the basis quote continues to rise. Pay attention to China - Canada trade progress and rapeseed raw material supply, and mainly allocate more. - In the case of soybean oil, the estimated soybean imports in the fourth quarter are still relatively sufficient, but the import cost has increased, providing support at the lower level. - The oil and fat sector is dominated by long - position funds. It is advisable to buy at low levels and roll long positions. [8] Group 3: Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) said that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia in September 2025 was 1.81 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.35%. The production in Peninsular Malaysia decreased by 6.17% month - on - month, the production in Sabah increased by 2.35% month - on - month, the production in Sarawak increased by 6.62% month - on - month, and the production in East Malaysia increased by 3.44% month - on - month. - Data from the Southern Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) in Malaysia showed that from October 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.55% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area increasing by 11.61% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.18% month - on - month. - A survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September will decline for the first time since February. The production is expected to be 1.794 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%, the export volume is expected to be 1.427 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.7%, and the inventory will drop to 2.146 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. - Indonesia's Energy Ministry announced that the laboratory tests for B50 fuel were completed in August. The next step is to conduct road tests and applicability tests for non - automotive diesel machinery to ensure the safety of B50 use. The government is accelerating the implementation of the mandatory blending policy of biodiesel (B50) with a 50% palm oil ratio in 2026 to reduce dependence on imported diesel, and it is expected to launch B50 biodiesel in the second half of 2026. - Brazil's Energy Ministry's biofuel director said that the policy to increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 15% to 16% in March 2026 may not be implemented on schedule due to the government's incomplete technical feasibility study report, tight policy promotion time, and high implementation difficulty. [9][10][17] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, the spot price of East China fourth - grade soybean oil, the spot price of South China 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [11][16][18][22][27][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].