Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The structural surplus of refined nickel has shifted, and the contradiction between supply and demand has eased slightly. However, the overall surplus and the expected increase in low - cost wet - process supply may still drag down nickel prices. It is not recommended to short at low levels, and short - selling opportunities at high levels can be considered, combined with options for risk protection [4]. - Stainless steel: The supply and demand are in a double - weak state, but the cost provides a certain support. It is recommended to focus on range - bound operations [5]. - Industrial silicon: The inventory has been accumulating for three consecutive weeks. The supply is expected to decrease in December, and the demand is weak. The price may rise slightly due to environmental protection news in Xinjiang, but the upside space is limited [28][33]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are weakening, and the market sentiment is bearish. The price fluctuation is expected to increase next week. It is recommended to wait and see [28][34]. - Lithium carbonate: The price is under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the destocking speed will slow down. It is recommended that upstream enterprises increase the hedging ratio [62][64]. - Palm oil: It is waiting for the confirmation of the price bottom based on the production reduction in Malaysia in December. If the production is successfully reduced, the price may rise in the first quarter [100][101]. - Soybean oil: The short - term rebound of US soybeans is limited. It is recommended to hold a small long position during the short - term rebound of palm oil and wait for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [100][103]. - Soybean meal: If there is no unexpected positive news, the price is expected to be weak, following the trend of US soybeans [112][116]. - Soybean: The spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak due to the rumor of state - reserve sales [112][116]. - Corn: There is a risk of price correction after reaching a high level. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in the northern ports [130][135]. - Sugar: Internationally, it is in a low - level consolidation state; domestically, it is expected to run weakly [157][159]. - Cotton: The upward trend has slowed down. The ICE cotton is under pressure, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be oscillatingly strong, but the upside space is limited [187][203]. - Live pigs: The spot price is weak, and the futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the basis logic and anti - arbitrage opportunities [206][208]. - Peanuts: The spot price is regionally differentiated. The near - term futures have support, while the long - term futures have more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategy of large oil mills [218][219]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The structural surplus of refined nickel has shifted, and the supply - demand relationship has changed. The supply and demand of stainless steel are both weak, but the cost provides support [4][5]. - **Inventory Tracking**: The inventory of refined nickel and stainless steel has changed. For example, the LME nickel inventory has decreased, and the stainless - steel social inventory has decreased slightly [6][8]. - **Market News**: There are various news, such as the takeover of a nickel mine in Indonesia, the suspension of subsidies for Russian nickel imports in China, and the potential production reduction in Indonesia's nickel wet - process projects [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has also declined [28]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon has been accumulating. The supply of industrial silicon may decrease in December, and the demand is weak. The supply of polysilicon is expected to be slightly reduced, and the demand has declined [29][30][31]. - **Future Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon may rise slightly due to environmental protection news, but the upside is limited. The price fluctuation of polysilicon is expected to increase [33][34]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate have declined [62]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the destocking speed is slowing down [63]. - **Future Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and upstream enterprises are recommended to increase the hedging ratio [64][67]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Views**: Palm oil was in a range - bound state, and soybean oil was following the trend of the oil sector [100]. - **This Week's Views**: Palm oil is waiting for the production reduction in Malaysia in December to confirm the price bottom. Soybean oil's short - term rebound is limited, and it is recommended to hold a small long position [101][103]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Previous Week's Situation**: The prices of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and soybeans have declined. The spot price of soybeans is strong, while the futures price is weak [112]. - **Next Week's Forecast**: If there is no positive news, the prices of soybean meal and soybeans are expected to be weakly oscillating [116]. Corn - **Market Review**: The spot and futures prices of corn have risen. The supply and demand situation has changed, and the inventory of corn starch has increased [130][131][134]. - **Market Outlook**: There is a risk of price correction after reaching a high level, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in the northern ports [135]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: The international and domestic sugar prices have declined. The production and consumption of major sugar - producing countries have changed [157][158]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Internationally, it is in a low - level consolidation state; domestically, it is expected to run weakly [159]. Cotton - **Market Data**: The prices of ICE cotton, Zhengzhou cotton, and cotton yarn have changed [190]. - **Fundamentals**: The export data of US cotton is not ideal. The domestic cotton price has risen, and the downstream situation is deteriorating [191][196][198]. - **Operation Suggestions**: ICE cotton may be supported at 63 - 64 cents/pound. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be oscillatingly strong, but the upside space is limited [203]. Live Pigs - **This Week's Review**: The spot price of live pigs has oscillated, and the futures price has been weakly oscillating [206]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price may be weakly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the basis logic and anti - arbitrage opportunities [207][208]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: The spot price of peanuts has declined, and the futures price has also decreased [218]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price is regionally differentiated. The near - term futures have support, while the long - term futures have more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategy of large oil mills [219].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, the structural change in nickel surplus is expected to keep nickel prices stable in the short - term. The supply - demand of refined nickel has turned weak. Although the accumulation of refined nickel inventory has eased slightly, the overall surplus and the expectation of low - cost wet - process production may still drag down nickel prices. Considering the high uncertainty of Indonesian policy news from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year, short - selling at low levels is not recommended, and opportunities for short - selling at high levels can be considered with options for risk protection [1]. - For stainless steel, the supply - demand is weakly balanced, and cost limits the downside potential. The market is in the off - season, and the fundamentals lack upward drivers. However, the supply growth has slowed down following the demand, and the cost has increased, providing a certain safety margin. Interval trading strategies are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Inventory Tracking - **Refined nickel**: On December 5th, China's social inventory increased by 262 tons to 54,978 tons. Among them, warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 1,455 tons to 34,764 tons, spot inventory decreased by 1,193 tons to 16,444 tons, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 3,770 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,644 tons to 253,116 tons [3]. - **New energy**: On November 28th, the inventory days of SMM's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of nickel sulfate changed by +1, 0, 0 month - on - month to 5, 9, 7 days respectively. On December 4th, the precursor inventory changed by +0.2 week - on - week to 12.8 days. On December 5th, the ternary material inventory remained unchanged at 6.8 days week - on - week [4][5]. - **Nickel - iron - stainless steel**: On November 30th, SMM's nickel - iron inventory was 29,346 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. In October, SMM's stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.574 million tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 9% and 3% respectively. On December 4th, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the Steel Union was 1,080,275 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 626,481 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.69%, and the inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 453,794 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33% [5]. 3.2 Market News - On September 12th, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area due to violations of forestry license regulations, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [6]. - On September 22nd, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies in various regions of Indonesia for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees as required [6]. - On September 30th, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Ministerial Regulation No. 17 (2025) regarding the procedures for the preparation, submission, and approval of the work plan and budget for mineral and coal mining business activities and the procedures for activity execution reports [7]. - US President Trump announced on October 10th that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software" [7]. - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing restricted products such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [8]. - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel wet - process projects will reduce production in December, affecting about 6,000 nickel metal tons of production [8]. - On November 21st, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing investors' expectations of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [8]. 3.3 Weekly Key Data Tracking of Nickel and Stainless Steel The report provides data on various indicators such as the closing price, trading volume, price differentials, and import profits of nickel and stainless - steel futures and related products, including the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel at 117,790 yuan, the closing price of the main contract of stainless steel at 12,500 yuan, etc. [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - **Nickel**: In 2025, LME and SHFE nickel prices showed a downward trend throughout the year. The core issue was the exacerbation of supply - demand imbalance. Currently, nickel prices are at a 5 - year low, and the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: In 2025, stainless steel prices generally followed the trend of nickel prices, showing a downward trend. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was difficult to reverse. Currently, stainless steel prices are at a 5 - year low, and the downward space is expected to be limited [13]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Trends - Nickel and stainless steel prices first rose and then fell in 2025, and have now dropped to a 5 - year low. In 2026, both are expected to show a situation of weak supply and demand [1][5]. 2. Nickel Ore - **Indonesia**: In 2025, there were many disturbances in Indonesia. The nickel ore price first rose and then fell. The RKAB total approval volume increased, but the actual production was far lower than the approved quota. It is expected that the RKAB approval volume will decline in 2026 [31][34]. - **Philippines**: In 2025, the nickel ore price showed a "high - level shock - seasonal decline - rainy - season support - weak stability" pattern. The export volume to Indonesia increased significantly, and it is expected to continue to grow throughout the year [36][37]. - **Sulfide Nickel Ore**: After the clearance of high - cost production capacity in 2024, the supply of overseas sulfide nickel ore has gradually stabilized [40]. 3. Refined Nickel - **Production**: From January to November 2025, domestic refined nickel production increased by 21.8% year - on - year. The import volume from Russia and Norway increased significantly [44]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, 2025, the global nickel inventory reached a 5 - year high. The main reason was the intensification of the supply - demand contradiction [48]. 4. Nickel Intermediates and Nickel Sulfate - **Nickel Intermediates**: In 2025, the production and price of MHP and high - nickel matte both increased. It is expected that the price of MHP will face downward pressure in the second quarter of 2026 [51][52]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: From January to October 2025, the production decreased by about 10% year - on - year. In the long term, the price is expected to continue to be weak [57][58]. 5. Ferronickel - **Production**: From January to October 2025, the total production of China and Indonesia increased by 11.6% year - on - year. Indonesia's supply proportion continued to rise [64]. - **Price**: In 2025, the ferronickel price fluctuated greatly and is currently close to the cost line. It is expected that the price will continue to decline in the short term, but the downward space is limited [69]. 6. Stainless Steel - **Capacity and Production**: In 2025, the capacity continued to be released, and the supply increased steadily. The export volume remained stable, while the import volume decreased significantly [75][76]. - **Inventory**: The stainless steel inventory remained at a high level and showed a trend of re - accumulation [88]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost remained stable, and it was still difficult for the profit to turn positive in the short term [90][91]. 7. Terminal Demand - **Traditional Sectors**: In 2025, the real estate sector was sluggish, while the home appliance industry was outstanding. Overall, the demand showed a downward trend [94][95]. - **Lithium - Battery Industry**: The production of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly, driving nickel consumption. However, the proportion of ternary batteries continued to decline [101][102]. 8. Supply - Demand Balance - **Nickel**: In 2026, the oversupply of primary nickel is expected to shrink slightly [106][107]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel industry will improve the current supply - demand pattern under policy guidance, and the oversupply in China is expected to shrink in 2026 [112][113].

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views Bullish Factors - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is continuously tight due to the rainy season, providing support at the cost end [3] - Some domestic ferronickel enterprises are undergoing maintenance, leading to an expected partial contraction in supply [3] Bearish Factors - The demand for downstream stainless steel is weak, with low procurement enthusiasm for raw materials [3] - The new production capacity of electrolytic nickel continues to be released, and the overall supply pressure remains [3] Trading Advisory Views - It is recommended to closely monitor the consumption of downstream stainless steel and the destocking of inventories to judge whether the demand side can be effectively improved [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - The latest values of Shanghai Nickel main contract, consecutive one, consecutive two, and consecutive three are 116,900 yuan/ton, 116,900 yuan/ton, 117,110 yuan/ton, and 117,320 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 1.19%, 2.50%, 2.52%, and 2.52% [4] - LME Nickel 3M is at 14,840 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.44% [4] - The trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts decreased by 34.55%, 13.4%, and 0.70% respectively [4] Stainless Steel Futures - The latest values of stainless steel main contract, consecutive one, consecutive two, and consecutive three are 12,410 yuan/ton, 12,410 yuan/ton, 12,480 yuan/ton, and 12,540 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 1%, 0.98%, 0.89%, and 0.84% [5] - The trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts decreased by 14.16%, 25.08%, and 2.23% respectively [5] Spot Prices - The latest prices of Jinchuan Nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel are 121,300 yuan/ton, 117,050 yuan/ton, 119,000 yuan/ton, 119,100 yuan/ton, and 116,750 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 0.61%, 0.64%, 0.71%, 0.63%, and 0.76% [5] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 52,259 tons, a decrease of 855 tons; LME nickel inventory is 255,450 tons, an increase of 930 tons [7] - Stainless steel social inventory is 946 tons, an increase of 6 tons; ferronickel inventory is 30,225 tons, an increase of 661 tons [7] Charts and Graphs - The report includes multiple charts and graphs showing the historical prices, production, and inventory data of nickel and stainless steel, such as the price trends of Shanghai Nickel and LME Nickel, the production of Chinese refined nickel, and the inventory of domestic social nickel and LME nickel [8][14][15]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the nickel and zinc markets, highlighting the supply-demand dynamics and price trends for both metals. Nickel Market Insights - Nickel prices have been declining due to oversupply across the industry chain, particularly in the nickel-iron and stainless steel segments, with prices reaching a three-year low [2] - The demand for stainless steel is weak, exacerbated by the release of high-cost nickel-iron capacity, leading to increased inventory pressures in the nickel market [2] - Indonesia's mining quota was set lower than the previous year, but actual supply has increased, particularly with a 36.4% year-on-year rise in nickel ore imports from the Philippines [4] - The expectation is that nickel prices may stabilize between 100,000 to 110,000 yuan in 2026, with a recommendation to adopt a bearish strategy and look for short-selling opportunities [5] Zinc Market Insights - Global zinc production has increased by 59,000 tons (7.7% year-on-year), primarily from overseas mines, while domestic zinc supply remains ample due to increased imports [6] - China's refined zinc processing fees have rebounded, leading to a high operating rate of over 90% in smelting plants, which has significantly boosted domestic refined zinc supply [6] - The domestic market is expected to face significant inventory pressure, while the international market may experience price support due to supply tightness from overseas smelters [8] - The demand for zinc in 2025 is projected to be stable, with traditional industries like construction and real estate dragging down demand, while the automotive sector provides some incremental growth [9] Price Trends and Recommendations - Short-term price support for zinc may come from seasonal production cuts in northern mines and the opening of export windows for refined zinc [10] - However, the long-term outlook suggests a continued downward trend in zinc prices due to an oversupply situation, with recommendations to sell wide-strike options to capitalize on this trend [10][11] - Investors are advised to monitor overseas processing fee recoveries and smelter restarts, as well as LME inventory levels, which could impact market dynamics [11] Additional Considerations - The conference highlights the importance of keeping an eye on policy changes in resource countries like Indonesia and the Philippines, as these can significantly affect market conditions [3] - The potential for a supply-demand imbalance in the nickel market is emphasized, with a focus on the need for strategic positioning in light of high inventory levels and weak demand [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have broken down due to a combination of supply-demand imbalances and pessimistic demand expectations, with projections indicating a potential price drop to around 100,000-110,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [1][30]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Conditions - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend since November, breaking key support levels and reaching the lowest prices in nearly three years [3][4]. - The recent decline in nickel prices is attributed to a persistent oversupply in the market, particularly in the refined nickel segment, exacerbated by weak demand in the stainless steel sector [5][11]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The nickel industry is facing significant oversupply, with refined nickel production in China maintaining a high growth rate of around 33% over the past two years, while downstream demand remains limited [11][12]. - Current inventories of refined nickel are at elevated levels, nearing the highs seen during periods of low demand in 2020 [15][28]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite potential policy disruptions from resource countries, the likelihood of significant reductions in nickel ore production is low, maintaining a bearish outlook for prices [28][30]. - The anticipated increase in high-nickel solid-state battery production is not expected until 2027, further complicating the demand recovery for refined nickel [1][17]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A bearish strategy is recommended, with opportunities for selling out-of-the-money call options following the recent rapid price decline [2][30].

Report Overview - Report Title: Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold a wait - and - see stance, with an expected price range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][125] Core Views - Nickel: Under macro - level pressure, the supply - demand fundamentals are loose and inventory is rising, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs will keep stainless steel prices running weakly [6][125] Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel declined by 2.16% weekly, with trading volume dropping to 450,600 lots (- 95,900) and open interest falling to 112,200 lots (- 9,700). LME nickel fell 1.20% weekly, with trading volume rising to 41,100 lots (+ 3,600) [11] - The basis premium was 1,950 yuan/ton [13] 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [21] - In September, the Philippines' nickel ore exports decreased. China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase [26] - Last week, the nickel ore arrival volume decreased by 90,200 tons week - on - week, and port inventory decreased by 50,000 wet tons [28] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped by 12 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel narrowed, and the premium to scrap stainless steel widened [34] - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month increase and a 47.2% year - on - year increase. Imports are expected to decline in October [39] - In November, domestic nickel pig iron production and capacity utilization declined, while those in Indonesia increased. Nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [47][49] Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the production and capacity utilization of refined nickel declined, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [53][57] - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased and exports decreased [61] 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [66][114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, while imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [70][117] New Energy - The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely low [75] - In November, the production of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month - on - month but increased by 20.4% year - on - year, while the production of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month - on - month and 39.8% year - on - year [79] - In November, the production of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 23.4% year - on - year [81] - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [87] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory and LME nickel inventory both increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social inventory increased by 3,981 tons [88][93] 1.5 Cost and Outlook - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP decreased. MHP - integrated production of electrowon nickel has a significant cost advantage over nickel matte - integrated production [98] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to macro - level pressure, loose fundamentals, and rising inventory [99] 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures declined by 1.51% weekly, with the basis widening to 1,080 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 490,300 lots (unchanged), and open interest increased to 167,700 lots (+ 110,600) [102] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased, weakening cost support [105] - The profitability of 200 - series stainless steel improved, the losses of 300 - series widened, and 400 - series turned from loss to profit [110] 2.3 Fundamental Analysis - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased, and imports increased. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [117] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory increased, with inventory of all series (200, 300, and 400) rising [123] 2.5 Outlook - Due to weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs, stainless steel prices are expected to continue to run weakly [125]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate widely, and the range has remained intact for three months. The macro - atmosphere in the fourth quarter is expected to be strong, but there is no direct boost to the downstream demand for nickel. The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the MHP price provides cost support. The supply - demand of refined nickel is loose, and it is expected to continue the wide - range fluctuation trend in the third quarter [3][4][9]. - The global refined nickel inventory is increasing, and the deliverable products are abundant. The downstream consumption of refined nickel has little expansion, and the consumption growth rate is limited [12][28]. - The production of stainless steel remains at a high level, which supports the demand for primary nickel. However, the price of stainless steel is inverted to the cost, and the production schedule may be more conservative in November. The demand for stainless steel is lackluster, showing the characteristics of "not prosperous in the peak season and not weak in the off - season" [35][49][60]. - The strong demand for ternary materials has led to a tight supply - demand of nickel sulfate, and the price has risen. The new energy vehicle market shows structural growth, with both domestic and overseas markets having certain characteristics [75][90][102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Trend**: In October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate widely, and the range has remained intact for three months. Policy factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US economic and trade consultations have increased market risk appetite, but there is no direct boost to the downstream demand for nickel [3][9]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: From September to October, there was no peak - season feature, and the off - season consumption was expected to be flat. The supply of pure nickel remained high, competing with nickel sulfate for MHP raw materials. The MHP price was firm, providing cost support for pure nickel. The supply - demand of pure nickel changed little, and the inventory increased slowly [3][9]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Refined Nickel Inventory and Supply - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the global visible inventory reached 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons (an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the end of last month and 89,000 tons compared with the beginning of the year), and SMM's six - region social inventory at 49,000 tons (an increase of 7,900 tons compared with the end of last month and 7,600 tons compared with the beginning of the year) [12]. - **Supply**: The "PTENICO" brand nickel plate applied for LME delivery, and the total annual production capacity of Chinese - funded electrowon nickel brands applied for registration on the LME reached 221,600 tons. From January to September, LME nickel warrants increased by 74,000 tons [16]. SMM statistics show that China's refined nickel production from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 300,000 tons. It is expected that the domestic refined nickel output in October will remain at a high level of 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons month - on - month [25]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel and Nickel Demand - **Raw Material Price and Supply**: In October, the price of Indonesian nickel ore was relatively stable. The production of Indonesian nickel ore is difficult to increase significantly, and the price is also difficult to fall sharply. The Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore port inventory has decreased. The nickel - iron plants and mines are in a deep game [35]. - **Production and Demand**: From January to September, the combined nickel - iron production of China and Indonesia was 1.598 million nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 21%. The production of stainless steel is expected to be more conservative in November due to cost inversion. The demand for stainless steel lacks highlights, and the social inventory has increased after the National Day [41][49][60]. 3.2.3 Ternary Demand and Nickel Sulfate Price - **Nickel Sulfate Price**: In the third quarter, the orders for ternary materials were unexpectedly strong, and the supply - demand of nickel sulfate was tight. The MHP price was firm, providing cost support for electrowon nickel and nickel sulfate [75]. - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: In the domestic market, from January to September, the sales of new energy vehicles were 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The sales of new energy heavy - duty trucks increased by 183% year - on - year to 138,700 vehicles. In the overseas market, from January to August 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe increased by 27.4% year - on - year to 234,700 vehicles, and in the US by 8.1% year - on - year to 106,300 vehicles [90][102]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Future Outlook**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates once in December, Sino - US tariffs may be lowered, and the geopolitical situation will ease. The macro - atmosphere in the fourth quarter is strong. The downstream consumption of nickel is expected to be flat. The supply of refined nickel is loose, and it is expected to continue the wide - range fluctuation trend in November [4][113]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuation [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Nickel Market**: On October 30, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened high and closed low. The spot market had decent trading volume, and the basis premium widened. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: On October 30, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The fundamentals are loose, and cost support is weakening, so the upside potential of stainless - steel prices is expected to be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Trading Volume Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased on October 30 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel futures active contract was 99,113 hands (-10,149), and the open interest was 107,897 hands (-1,789). LME nickel prices also declined, with the LME 3 - month nickel official price down by $105 [2]. - **Supply - side Situation**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened. In October, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased, and nickel - iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits expanded [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: Ternary production increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: SHFE nickel inventories increased, LME nickel inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased on October 30 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai stainless - steel futures active contract was 105,051 hands (+11,210), and the open interest was 89,093 hands (-9,130) [2]. - **Supply - side Situation**: In October, stainless - steel production increased, but the production of the 300 - series decreased [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost - side Situation**: The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: SHFE stainless - steel inventories remained flat. Last week, the social inventory of the 300 - series was 61,270 tons (-9,000) [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday trends of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are mainly volatile, with a late - session rebound. The fundamentals have no significant changes recently. There are still expectations of interest rate cuts within the year at the macro - level, and there is a certain easing sentiment regarding Sino - US tariffs [3]. - The nickel ore quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions, while the new energy sector is entering a peak season with high downstream procurement demand and rising prices. Nickel iron prices lack upward momentum and may run weakly, and stainless steel may see a slight downward shift in its center of gravity [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the shortening of nickel ore quota license periods in Indonesia, the progress of nickel - integrated smelter construction, and favorable news for stainless steel exports. Negative factors include high pure nickel inventories, Sino - US tariff disturbances, and weak demand for nickel iron and stainless steel [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Shanghai Nickel**: The price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.87% and a historical percentile of 6.1% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and there is a risk of inventory impairment, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When there is a future production procurement demand and concerns about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Inventory Management**: Similar to Shanghai nickel, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio when facing inventory impairment risks [3]. - **Procurement Management**: Buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options when worried about rising raw material prices [3]. Market Data - **Nickel Disk Data** - The latest values of Shanghai nickel main - continuous, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three show different degrees of increase compared to the previous period, with the LME nickel 3M also rising by 0.29%. Trading volume decreased by 19.84%, and open interest decreased by 3.57% [6]. - **Stainless Steel Disk Data** - The latest values of stainless steel main - continuous, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three also increased. Trading volume increased by 11.18%, and open interest increased by 4.01% [7]. - **Inventory Data** - Domestic social nickel inventory increased by 2,866 tons to 43,694 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 3,498 tons to 246,756 tons, stainless steel social inventory decreased by 3.4 tons to 905.6 tons, and nickel pig iron inventory increased by 584 tons to 29,236 tons [7]. Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the Indonesian forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay; the construction of the nickel - integrated smelter jointly promoted by CATL and Antam continues; the WTO rules that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal; the exemption of the Indian BIS certification is extended to the end of the year [6]. - **Negative Factors**: High pure nickel inventories; resurgence of Sino - US tariff disturbances; overall downward shift of the nickel iron center with weakened bottom support; stainless steel shows a situation of "peak season without prosperity" with demand recovery falling short of expectations [6].