Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the nickel and zinc markets, highlighting the supply-demand dynamics and price trends for both metals. Nickel Market Insights - Nickel prices have been declining due to oversupply across the industry chain, particularly in the nickel-iron and stainless steel segments, with prices reaching a three-year low [2] - The demand for stainless steel is weak, exacerbated by the release of high-cost nickel-iron capacity, leading to increased inventory pressures in the nickel market [2] - Indonesia's mining quota was set lower than the previous year, but actual supply has increased, particularly with a 36.4% year-on-year rise in nickel ore imports from the Philippines [4] - The expectation is that nickel prices may stabilize between 100,000 to 110,000 yuan in 2026, with a recommendation to adopt a bearish strategy and look for short-selling opportunities [5] Zinc Market Insights - Global zinc production has increased by 59,000 tons (7.7% year-on-year), primarily from overseas mines, while domestic zinc supply remains ample due to increased imports [6] - China's refined zinc processing fees have rebounded, leading to a high operating rate of over 90% in smelting plants, which has significantly boosted domestic refined zinc supply [6] - The domestic market is expected to face significant inventory pressure, while the international market may experience price support due to supply tightness from overseas smelters [8] - The demand for zinc in 2025 is projected to be stable, with traditional industries like construction and real estate dragging down demand, while the automotive sector provides some incremental growth [9] Price Trends and Recommendations - Short-term price support for zinc may come from seasonal production cuts in northern mines and the opening of export windows for refined zinc [10] - However, the long-term outlook suggests a continued downward trend in zinc prices due to an oversupply situation, with recommendations to sell wide-strike options to capitalize on this trend [10][11] - Investors are advised to monitor overseas processing fee recoveries and smelter restarts, as well as LME inventory levels, which could impact market dynamics [11] Additional Considerations - The conference highlights the importance of keeping an eye on policy changes in resource countries like Indonesia and the Philippines, as these can significantly affect market conditions [3] - The potential for a supply-demand imbalance in the nickel market is emphasized, with a focus on the need for strategic positioning in light of high inventory levels and weak demand [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have broken down due to a combination of supply-demand imbalances and pessimistic demand expectations, with projections indicating a potential price drop to around 100,000-110,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [1][30]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Conditions - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend since November, breaking key support levels and reaching the lowest prices in nearly three years [3][4]. - The recent decline in nickel prices is attributed to a persistent oversupply in the market, particularly in the refined nickel segment, exacerbated by weak demand in the stainless steel sector [5][11]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The nickel industry is facing significant oversupply, with refined nickel production in China maintaining a high growth rate of around 33% over the past two years, while downstream demand remains limited [11][12]. - Current inventories of refined nickel are at elevated levels, nearing the highs seen during periods of low demand in 2020 [15][28]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite potential policy disruptions from resource countries, the likelihood of significant reductions in nickel ore production is low, maintaining a bearish outlook for prices [28][30]. - The anticipated increase in high-nickel solid-state battery production is not expected until 2027, further complicating the demand recovery for refined nickel [1][17]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A bearish strategy is recommended, with opportunities for selling out-of-the-money call options following the recent rapid price decline [2][30].

Report Overview - Report Title: Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold a wait - and - see stance, with an expected price range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][125] Core Views - Nickel: Under macro - level pressure, the supply - demand fundamentals are loose and inventory is rising, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs will keep stainless steel prices running weakly [6][125] Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel declined by 2.16% weekly, with trading volume dropping to 450,600 lots (- 95,900) and open interest falling to 112,200 lots (- 9,700). LME nickel fell 1.20% weekly, with trading volume rising to 41,100 lots (+ 3,600) [11] - The basis premium was 1,950 yuan/ton [13] 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [21] - In September, the Philippines' nickel ore exports decreased. China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase [26] - Last week, the nickel ore arrival volume decreased by 90,200 tons week - on - week, and port inventory decreased by 50,000 wet tons [28] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped by 12 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel narrowed, and the premium to scrap stainless steel widened [34] - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month increase and a 47.2% year - on - year increase. Imports are expected to decline in October [39] - In November, domestic nickel pig iron production and capacity utilization declined, while those in Indonesia increased. Nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [47][49] Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the production and capacity utilization of refined nickel declined, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [53][57] - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased and exports decreased [61] 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [66][114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, while imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [70][117] New Energy - The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely low [75] - In November, the production of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month - on - month but increased by 20.4% year - on - year, while the production of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month - on - month and 39.8% year - on - year [79] - In November, the production of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 23.4% year - on - year [81] - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [87] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory and LME nickel inventory both increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social inventory increased by 3,981 tons [88][93] 1.5 Cost and Outlook - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP decreased. MHP - integrated production of electrowon nickel has a significant cost advantage over nickel matte - integrated production [98] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to macro - level pressure, loose fundamentals, and rising inventory [99] 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures declined by 1.51% weekly, with the basis widening to 1,080 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 490,300 lots (unchanged), and open interest increased to 167,700 lots (+ 110,600) [102] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased, weakening cost support [105] - The profitability of 200 - series stainless steel improved, the losses of 300 - series widened, and 400 - series turned from loss to profit [110] 2.3 Fundamental Analysis - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased, and imports increased. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [117] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory increased, with inventory of all series (200, 300, and 400) rising [123] 2.5 Outlook - Due to weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs, stainless steel prices are expected to continue to run weakly [125]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate widely, and the range has remained intact for three months. The macro - atmosphere in the fourth quarter is expected to be strong, but there is no direct boost to the downstream demand for nickel. The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the MHP price provides cost support. The supply - demand of refined nickel is loose, and it is expected to continue the wide - range fluctuation trend in the third quarter [3][4][9]. - The global refined nickel inventory is increasing, and the deliverable products are abundant. The downstream consumption of refined nickel has little expansion, and the consumption growth rate is limited [12][28]. - The production of stainless steel remains at a high level, which supports the demand for primary nickel. However, the price of stainless steel is inverted to the cost, and the production schedule may be more conservative in November. The demand for stainless steel is lackluster, showing the characteristics of "not prosperous in the peak season and not weak in the off - season" [35][49][60]. - The strong demand for ternary materials has led to a tight supply - demand of nickel sulfate, and the price has risen. The new energy vehicle market shows structural growth, with both domestic and overseas markets having certain characteristics [75][90][102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Trend**: In October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate widely, and the range has remained intact for three months. Policy factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US economic and trade consultations have increased market risk appetite, but there is no direct boost to the downstream demand for nickel [3][9]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: From September to October, there was no peak - season feature, and the off - season consumption was expected to be flat. The supply of pure nickel remained high, competing with nickel sulfate for MHP raw materials. The MHP price was firm, providing cost support for pure nickel. The supply - demand of pure nickel changed little, and the inventory increased slowly [3][9]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Refined Nickel Inventory and Supply - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the global visible inventory reached 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons (an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the end of last month and 89,000 tons compared with the beginning of the year), and SMM's six - region social inventory at 49,000 tons (an increase of 7,900 tons compared with the end of last month and 7,600 tons compared with the beginning of the year) [12]. - **Supply**: The "PTENICO" brand nickel plate applied for LME delivery, and the total annual production capacity of Chinese - funded electrowon nickel brands applied for registration on the LME reached 221,600 tons. From January to September, LME nickel warrants increased by 74,000 tons [16]. SMM statistics show that China's refined nickel production from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 300,000 tons. It is expected that the domestic refined nickel output in October will remain at a high level of 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons month - on - month [25]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel and Nickel Demand - **Raw Material Price and Supply**: In October, the price of Indonesian nickel ore was relatively stable. The production of Indonesian nickel ore is difficult to increase significantly, and the price is also difficult to fall sharply. The Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore port inventory has decreased. The nickel - iron plants and mines are in a deep game [35]. - **Production and Demand**: From January to September, the combined nickel - iron production of China and Indonesia was 1.598 million nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 21%. The production of stainless steel is expected to be more conservative in November due to cost inversion. The demand for stainless steel lacks highlights, and the social inventory has increased after the National Day [41][49][60]. 3.2.3 Ternary Demand and Nickel Sulfate Price - **Nickel Sulfate Price**: In the third quarter, the orders for ternary materials were unexpectedly strong, and the supply - demand of nickel sulfate was tight. The MHP price was firm, providing cost support for electrowon nickel and nickel sulfate [75]. - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: In the domestic market, from January to September, the sales of new energy vehicles were 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The sales of new energy heavy - duty trucks increased by 183% year - on - year to 138,700 vehicles. In the overseas market, from January to August 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe increased by 27.4% year - on - year to 234,700 vehicles, and in the US by 8.1% year - on - year to 106,300 vehicles [90][102]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Future Outlook**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates once in December, Sino - US tariffs may be lowered, and the geopolitical situation will ease. The macro - atmosphere in the fourth quarter is strong. The downstream consumption of nickel is expected to be flat. The supply of refined nickel is loose, and it is expected to continue the wide - range fluctuation trend in November [4][113]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuation [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Nickel Market**: On October 30, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened high and closed low. The spot market had decent trading volume, and the basis premium widened. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: On October 30, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The fundamentals are loose, and cost support is weakening, so the upside potential of stainless - steel prices is expected to be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Trading Volume Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased on October 30 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel futures active contract was 99,113 hands (-10,149), and the open interest was 107,897 hands (-1,789). LME nickel prices also declined, with the LME 3 - month nickel official price down by $105 [2]. - **Supply - side Situation**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened. In October, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased, and nickel - iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits expanded [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: Ternary production increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: SHFE nickel inventories increased, LME nickel inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased on October 30 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai stainless - steel futures active contract was 105,051 hands (+11,210), and the open interest was 89,093 hands (-9,130) [2]. - **Supply - side Situation**: In October, stainless - steel production increased, but the production of the 300 - series decreased [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost - side Situation**: The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: SHFE stainless - steel inventories remained flat. Last week, the social inventory of the 300 - series was 61,270 tons (-9,000) [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday trends of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are mainly volatile, with a late - session rebound. The fundamentals have no significant changes recently. There are still expectations of interest rate cuts within the year at the macro - level, and there is a certain easing sentiment regarding Sino - US tariffs [3]. - The nickel ore quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions, while the new energy sector is entering a peak season with high downstream procurement demand and rising prices. Nickel iron prices lack upward momentum and may run weakly, and stainless steel may see a slight downward shift in its center of gravity [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the shortening of nickel ore quota license periods in Indonesia, the progress of nickel - integrated smelter construction, and favorable news for stainless steel exports. Negative factors include high pure nickel inventories, Sino - US tariff disturbances, and weak demand for nickel iron and stainless steel [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Shanghai Nickel**: The price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.87% and a historical percentile of 6.1% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and there is a risk of inventory impairment, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When there is a future production procurement demand and concerns about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Inventory Management**: Similar to Shanghai nickel, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio when facing inventory impairment risks [3]. - **Procurement Management**: Buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options when worried about rising raw material prices [3]. Market Data - **Nickel Disk Data** - The latest values of Shanghai nickel main - continuous, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three show different degrees of increase compared to the previous period, with the LME nickel 3M also rising by 0.29%. Trading volume decreased by 19.84%, and open interest decreased by 3.57% [6]. - **Stainless Steel Disk Data** - The latest values of stainless steel main - continuous, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three also increased. Trading volume increased by 11.18%, and open interest increased by 4.01% [7]. - **Inventory Data** - Domestic social nickel inventory increased by 2,866 tons to 43,694 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 3,498 tons to 246,756 tons, stainless steel social inventory decreased by 3.4 tons to 905.6 tons, and nickel pig iron inventory increased by 584 tons to 29,236 tons [7]. Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the Indonesian forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay; the construction of the nickel - integrated smelter jointly promoted by CATL and Antam continues; the WTO rules that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal; the exemption of the Indian BIS certification is extended to the end of the year [6]. - **Negative Factors**: High pure nickel inventories; resurgence of Sino - US tariff disturbances; overall downward shift of the nickel iron center with weakened bottom support; stainless steel shows a situation of "peak season without prosperity" with demand recovery falling short of expectations [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend rating for nickel is "shock", and the medium - term view is bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - The main operating range of nickel is between 118,000 and 126,000 yuan/ton; there is no upward breakthrough momentum in the short - term, but a bullish outlook in the medium - term. It is recommended to go long when the price approaches the lower limit [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro & Industry News - Botswana implemented a new mining regulation on October 1st, 2025. If the government chooses not to acquire the corresponding equity of a mining right, mining companies must sell 24% of the new mining right to local investors. The previous regulation allowed the government to acquire 15% of the mining right, and a higher proportion for diamond projects [1] 2. Supply - For nickel ore, the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the previous riots in Indonesia may support the ore price. The nickel industry chain has been in an overall oversupply situation, and although the oversupply level may decline, the current situation is still one of oversupply, with relatively stable price ranges. For nickel iron, the profit in Indonesia is low but still positive, while domestic production is in the red. However, Indonesia's nickel - iron production continues to increase year - on - year. The production cost of electrowinning nickel for integrated pure - nickel enterprises has dropped to 118,500 yuan/ton, and the cost is relatively firm due to the support from the Indonesian government and the Philippines' rainy season. The bottom - line reference for pure nickel is about 118,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Demand - The profit of the stainless - steel industry has recovered recently but is still in the loss range. The full - cost tracked by SMM is about 13,879 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost is about 13,017 yuan/ton. There is still an oversupply expectation in the nickel - ore end, which may drive down the nickel - iron price, and the stainless - steel price is still some distance from the cost support. In terms of demand, the real - estate market is at the bottom, small household appliances have recovered due to national subsidies, and there are few changes in tableware and medical devices. The substitution trend of infrastructure demand by 200 - series and 400 - series (low - quality stainless steel) continues. In the element competition, in a poor economic environment, the market pursues cost - effectiveness. Ternary batteries are gradually being replaced by lithium iron phosphate, and the high - nickel trend of ternary batteries has paused, with the proportion of 811 decreasing monthly and a shift to 622, which is generally unfavorable for nickel - element digestion, resulting in weak demand [2] 4. Inventory and Structure - LME nickel inventory continues to increase, and the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is increasing at an accelerated pace. The futures - spot and inter - month relationships maintain a Contango structure [3] 5. Other Data Analysis - The report also includes various data charts on macro - indicators, spot premiums and discounts, spreads, inventory, profit, and import profit and loss for metals such as lead, zinc, and nickel, which can be used for comprehensive analysis of the metals market [5][7][25][34][46][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The intraday decline of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel was mainly affected by the broader market, and the fundamental logic temporarily failed. The quota for nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to decline in 2026, while the new energy sector is entering a peak season with strong downstream demand. Nickel iron prices lack upward momentum, and stainless steel may be weak due to profit pressure and weak demand. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and macro - level attention should be paid to the subsequent development of Sino - US tariffs [3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai Nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.78% and a historical percentile of 2.1% [2]. Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory management**: When facing product price decline and inventory impairment risk, sell Shanghai Nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio, both with a strategy grade of 2 [2]. - **Procurement management**: When worried about raw material price increases, buy far - month Shanghai Nickel contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), with strategy grades of 3, 1, and 3 respectively [2]. Stainless Steel - **Inventory management**: When facing product price decline and inventory impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio, both with a strategy grade of 2 [3]. - **Procurement management**: When worried about raw material price increases, buy far - month stainless steel contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), with strategy grades of 3, 1, and 3 respectively [3]. Market Analysis Core Contradictions - Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel declined due to the broader market. Nickel ore quota in Indonesia may decrease in 2026. The new energy sector is in a peak season with high demand. Nickel iron prices are weak, and stainless steel has profit and demand issues. There are export利好 factors for stainless steel, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariffs [3]. Positive Factors - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period, changes in mining area management, progress in nickel smelting projects, favorable WTO rulings, and extension of Indian BIS certification exemption [5]. Negative Factors - High pure nickel inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, and weak stainless steel demand [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - **Nickel**: The prices of Shanghai Nickel main contract and related contracts, as well as LME nickel 3M, all declined, with trading volume and open interest also decreasing, while the position of warehouse receipts increased slightly [5]. - **Stainless steel**: The prices of stainless steel contracts declined, but trading volume and open interest increased significantly, and the position of warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6]. Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 43,694 tons, an increase of 2,866 tons; LME nickel inventory is 242,094 tons, an increase of 4,716 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 905.6 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,236 tons, an increase of 584 tons [7].

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Fed officials have significant differences on interest - rate cuts. Some believe the September cut was unnecessary, and the government shutdown makes economic assessment more difficult [6]. - Stock index futures are expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish bias, but investors should avoid over - aggressiveness. There are factors both favorable and unfavorable to the market [7][8]. - Copper supply disruptions are likely to push up prices due to events like the Indonesian mine accident and supply - side policy adjustments [10]. Summary by Directory Fed Interest - Rate Cut Situation - The Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Most participants emphasized inflation risks, and there were differences on the number of future cuts. The government shutdown has led to data delays, complicating economic assessment [6]. Stock Index Futures - Maintain a moderately bullish view on stock index futures, but avoid over - aggressiveness. The holiday situation is conducive to the continuation of the bullish market, but regulatory risks and the upcoming earnings season should be noted [7][8]. Copper - Supply disruptions, such as the Indonesian Grasberg mine accident, will reduce copper supply. The industry association advocates controlling smelting capacity expansion, and the market expects increased copper demand from AI, which may push up copper prices [10][21][23]. Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, while silver will experience oscillatory adjustments [12][16]. - **Base Metals**: Each base metal has different trends, such as zinc having support, lead lacking drivers, and tin oscillating within a range [12][24][27]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different energy and chemical products have various trends, including some expected to open high and then fall, and others to oscillate or be weak [12][15]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products also show different trends, such as some oscillating weakly and others being slightly bullish [12][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the long - short contradictions in the nickel market are in balance, and nickel prices may continue to fluctuate within a range. However, if the contradictions on either side intensify in the fourth quarter, it will further increase the volatility of Shanghai nickel. For stainless steel, short - term steel prices lack upward drivers but do not have the basis for a sharp decline, and the long - term strategy of buying on dips has better cost - effectiveness [1][2]. Summary According to Related Contents Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: Indonesian nickel mine contradictions have increased market concerns, while the steep accumulation of refined nickel inventory and weak expectations have put pressure on prices. The takeover of part of the Weda Bay Nickel mine and the suspension of 190 mining companies in Indonesia may affect the supply. However, the global refined nickel inventory has increased steeply, and the market expects a slowdown in implicit restocking. The nickel surplus is mainly in the pure nickel segment, showing a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 959 tons to 40,440 tons, with a decrease in warehouse receipt and spot inventory and unchanged bonded area inventory. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,680 tons to 230,124 tons [4]. - **Market News**: There are multiple pieces of news related to Indonesia, including plans to shorten mining quota periods, government - approved RKAB production, suspension of some nickel - iron production lines due to losses, requirements for resubmitting 2026 RKAB, and crackdowns on illegal mining. Also, China has suspended a non - official subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia [5][7][8]. Stainless Steel Market - **Fundamentals**: The short - term supply - demand logic and long - term "cost - performance trading" are in a game, and steel prices currently lack a clear trend. The demand side is suppressed by tariff pressure and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, while the supply side has seen an expected increase in production after valuation repair [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of September 25, SMM stainless steel factory inventory was 1.549 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%; SMM stainless steel social inventory was 0.909 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 1%; the total social inventory of stainless steel monitored by Steel Union was 0.984 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3% and a month - on - month decrease of 0% [4]. - **Market News**: There are news such as a steel mill in Shandong reducing production due to capacity limitations and an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspending part of its production lines [5][6]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,380, down 1,610; the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,840, down 90. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 163,560, down 13,470; the trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 262,187, up 81,878 [9]. - **Industry Chain**: Data on 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium and discount, nickel bean premium and discount, and other indicators are provided, as well as data on the stainless steel and nickel - related industry chain such as high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread, and nickel plate import profit [9].