1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Cost - neutral; Device change - cautiously bullish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - cautiously bearish; Processing profit - cautiously bearish [5] - PX: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Device change - neutral; Import - cautiously bearish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - neutral; Processing profit - neutral [6] - Ethylene glycol: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Device change - cautiously bearish; Import - cautiously bullish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - cautiously bearish; Processing profit - neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA:节前检修兑现，需求加速降负，产业链略压缩，现实端一般但预期尚可，节前关注成本地缘和资金影响，轻仓过节，节后关注需求复工进度 [5] - PX:供应维持高位，需求变化不大，近端浮动价偏弱，PXN略回落，现实一般但预期尚可，节前关注资金节奏 [6] - Ethylene glycol:节前负荷高位，合成气有检修，进口略有改善，需求进入节前放假模式，1 - 2月现实端季节性累库，现实一般但预期节后有改善，节前关注宏观情绪 [7] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weaving Industry - Weaving enters the pre - holiday shutdown mode. As of February 5, the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing dropped to 17% (-36%), 9% (-25%), and 45% (-24%) respectively. Pre - holiday inventory is for 15 - 20 days, which is not high [10] 3.2 Polyester Industry - As of February 6, polyester load is around 78.2% (-6%), cash flow is repaired, and average inventory stabilizes at around 14.6 days. Polyester devices are undergoing pre - holiday maintenance, and the operating rate is slightly decreasing. Polyester benefits are improving, and pre - holiday inventory pressure is not large [15] - Current polyester inventory is slightly rising. As of February 6, the inventories of POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber are 12.7, 24.9, 16.9, and 8.9 days respectively [16] - Raw material prices are回调, and polyester cash - flow profit is slightly repaired [19] - In the future, polyester factories will carry out pre - holiday maintenance, and the operating rate may decline seasonally. As of February 6, the polyester load is 78.2%, and the estimated loads for January - February are 88% and 80% (-2%) [31] 3.3 PTA Industry - PTA device changes are small. Before the holiday, New Materials and Ineos are under maintenance as planned, Dushan Energy plans to conduct maintenance on February 10, Sichuan Energy Investment restarts, and three YS devices are under maintenance. There are maintenance plans for two HL devices in March [43] - As of February 6, with the accelerated decline of polyester load, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increases to 232.57 tons, a rise of 14 tons. Inventories in PTA and polyester factories are rising [44] - PTA supply changes little, demand is seasonally decreasing, the PTA industrial chain valuation is slightly compressed. Before the holiday, pay attention to macro and capital influences and hold light positions. In terms of supply, device maintenance is as mentioned above. In terms of demand, on February 5, polyester load dropped to 79.3% (-4.9%), and the estimated loads for January - February are 88% and 80% (-2%). Downstream operating rates are further weakening. The PTA balance shows that there is a slight inventory build - up in January - February, and the processing fee is around 400, not low. Short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical and capital drivers [59] 3.4 PX Industry - US gasoline inventory is rising, and gasoline crack spread is stable [73] - Asian disproportionation and short - process benefits are strong but have slightly declined recently [76] - The aromatics price spread between the US and Asia is slightly widening. The toluene price spread between the US and Asia is $101.1, and the xylene price spread is $90. In December 2025, South Korea's aromatic exports to the US increased, and in January 2026, the exports were 4.1 tons, a month - on - month decline [85] - PX device status: domestic PX load is 89.2%, and Asian load is 81.6%, both at a high level. Domestic load changes little, and Sinochem Quanzhou plans to restart. Some Asian devices are slightly increasing their loads. The overall Asian load remains high due to improved benefits [86] - PX supply remains high, demand changes little, the near - end floating price is weak, PXN has slightly declined, the current situation is average but the expectation is good. Before the holiday, pay attention to capital rhythm. The device load is high. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical restarts after maintenance, Sinochem Quanzhou plans to restart, and some factories slightly reduce their loads. In Asia, some devices adjust their loads. In terms of balance, Asian supply is at a high load, PX has a loose balance and a small inventory build - up from January to March, and PXN is around 290, with the valuation compressed. Pay attention to capital changes [92] - The price spread between the PX outer and inner markets is widening, the PX 3 - 5 month spread is weakly stable, and the TA05 processing fee drops to around 400 [93] - The PTA - Brent oil industrial chain profit slightly declines but is still not low. PXN is around $290, PTA processing fee is 400 yuan, and the disk processing fee is slightly compressed. The overall valuation is not low. Short - term attention should be paid to the macro - market situation [96] 3.5 Ethylene Glycol (EG) Industry - As of January 30, the overall EG load is high, with the total load at 76% and the coal - based load at 76.7% [101] - EG device status: Zhongke Refining and Chemical restarts, Sinochem Quanzhou has a difficult restart, CNOOC Shell may stop production, Satellite Petrochemical plans to switch production in February, Shenghong is under maintenance, Gulei has a maintenance plan in March, and BASF is operating at 90% load. For syngas - based production, some factories are under maintenance, and Shaanxi Coal has a rotation maintenance plan in March. Near - end supply is not low, and maintenance is expected to increase [106] - EG price has dropped from a high level, costs are strong, and benefits are compressed [107] - Overseas maintenance plans are increasing. Some devices in Taiwan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and the US have maintenance or restart - delay plans. The near - end arrivals from January to February are still not low, but the arrivals are expected to decline from February to March [121] - As of February 2, the inventory in East China's main ports is about 93.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.8 tons. The overall inventory is moderately high. The expected arrivals from February 2 - 8 are around 12.3 tons, and the actual arrivals are 11 tons. The expected arrivals from February 9 - 23 are 18.1 tons. During the holiday, the arrival expectation is not high, and there is still inventory build - up pressure at the port as downstream industries shut down. Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 17.8 days (+1.8), and downstream inventory is increasing [128] - In terms of balance, supply is at a high level, imports are slightly improving, demand is seasonally entering the holiday shutdown mode. The current situation is average, but the expectation is good after the holiday. Before the holiday, pay attention to macro - sentiment [130]

装置检修动态:华东一套250万吨PTA装置预计2月10日开始停车,具体开车时间未定。 PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 ·PTA现货价格 MEG内盘 县美 8000 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 5000 700 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023-01 2021-01 2024-01 2025-01 2026-01 2022-01 2025-06 2025-08 2025-02 2025-04 2025-10 2025-12 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 DTY现金流 FDY 现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现 600= 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023-02023-02024-02024-02024-02024-02025-02025-02025-02026-01 -800 免 责 声 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester industry is currently experiencing inventory accumulation in the present but holds positive expectations. PTA shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, MEG may see a weak improvement in the future, short - fiber has good inventory conditions and its absolute price is not pessimistic, and bottle - chip is expected to continue to outperform short - fiber [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX - PX has been operating at a high load, and industry profits are gradually shifting downward. The PX - N spread has dropped from above $350/ton to around $300/ton. With the restart of some domestic plants, the domestic load is at a high of 90% with little expected decline. Asian load is 81.6%. In the first quarter, supply is abundant, and seasonal inventory accumulation is expected to increase. The PX - crude oil industry chain profit has generally declined, mainly due to the compression of PX - N [6]. PTA - Since January, PTA supply has not increased despite improved processing margins, with an operating rate fluctuating around 76% - 77%. Overall load is not high, and in the context of supply - demand reduction, the inventory accumulation range from January to February is expected to be 60 - 700,000 tons. The post - holiday maintenance intensity may be less than in previous years [7]. Polyester - In February, terminal weaving has declined significantly, and downstream industries are on holiday. Polyester factories have increased production cuts, with the start - up rate dropping to 78.2%, and the average start - up rate in February is expected to be 79% - 80%. Current chemical fiber factory inventory is at a relatively low level, and cash flow is slightly profitable. Attention should be paid to post - holiday resumption and downstream replenishment demand [8][12]. MEG - Currently, the domestic ethylene glycol operating load is around 76.2%. There is an obvious inventory accumulation expectation, and port inventory has risen to 854,000 tons. However, from March, the number of domestic and overseas maintenance projects will increase, and supply may improve weakly, with limited downward potential [10]. Short - fiber - Since late January, the short - fiber operating rate has dropped from a high of 98% to below 80%. Inventory is at a low level in the past year, and processing fees are around 900 - 1000 yuan/ton. Due to poor demand, short - fiber faces seasonal inventory accumulation [15]. Bottle - chip - Since mid - last year, due to low profits, factories have cut production, and the average load has been maintained at around 80%. With inventory reduction and improved processing fees, the current in - stock inventory has dropped to around 9.3 days, and the processing fee has reached a two - year high of 621 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to opportunities to protect processing fees at high prices [16]. Important Data - On February 10, the PX - N spread was $297/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee was 373 yuan/ton [21]. - On February 9, the ethylene glycol port inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 854,000 tons; at the end of January, MEG factory inventory was 348,000 tons; in early February, the MEG raw material inventory of polyester factories was 14.5 days [27]. - From January to December 2025, MEG imports were 7.7205 billion tons, a cumulative increase of 17.8% year - on - year [34]. - In the week of February 6, the polyester start - up rate was 78.2%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate was 5% [39]. - In December 2025, textile and clothing exports were $25.992 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 8.9%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative retail sales of textile, clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted products in China were 152.146 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [57].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心回落，其中 WTI 3 月合约收盘下跌 0.4 美元至 63.96 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.62%。布伦特 4 月合约收盘下跌 0.24 美元至 68.8 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.35%。SC2604 以 473.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 1 元/桶， | | | | 涨幅 0.21%。EIA 表示，随着美国扩大对委内瑞拉相关交易的许 | | | | 可，预计到 2026 年中期，这个南美国家的石油产量将恢复到美国 | | | | 12 月对该国实施海上封锁之前的水平。EIA 发布最新短期能源展 | | | 原油 | 望报告，上调今明两年美国石油产量预测，而美国石油需求预测 | 震荡 | | | 维持不变。在 EIA 预测的到 2027 年底的这段时期内，全球石油产 | | | | 量的增长速度预计将超过需求，从而增加库存并对价格造成压力。 | | | | API 数据显示，上周美国 API 原油库存增加 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: The sentiment in the commodity market has declined. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction. The PTA industry remains strong, with expected record - high production in January 2024 in China, no Spring Festival production cut plans, and no new capacity throughout the year. PX supply is still tight, and the domestic PTA high - operation rate and the limited negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts support the market [3]. - MEG: After a long - term slump overseas, the reduction of ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. The supply contraction due to production line conversion provides room for price increases [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - **Crude Oil and PTA - related**: INE crude oil price increased from 464.2 yuan/barrel on February 9, 2026, to 476.1 yuan/barrel on February 10, 2026, a rise of 11.9 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC decreased by 48.48 yuan/ton, and PTA/SC ratio decreased by 0.0275 [3]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price rose from 900 to 909, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 297 to 311 [3]. - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 increased from 5192 yuan/ton to 5230 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 5115 yuan/ton to 5140 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 2.8 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 4.8 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 increased by 2004 [3]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 decreased from 3739 yuan/ton to 3733 yuan/ton, and MEG - naphtha remained unchanged. The MEG内盘 decreased from 3635 yuan/ton to 3623 yuan/ton, and the主力 basis decreased by 3 [3]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price decreased by 25 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F decreased by 10 yuan/ton, DTY150D/48F remained unchanged. The cash - flow of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips all decreased to varying degrees [3]. 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 85.92%, PTA start - up rate remained at 76.73%, MEG start - up rate increased from 61.67% to 62.36%, and polyester load decreased from 77.49% to 77.26% [3]. 3.3 Production and Sales Situation - The long - filament production and sales rate increased from 12% to 13%, the short - fiber production and sales rate decreased from 41% to 39%, and the polyester chip production and sales rate increased from 22% to 23% [3]. 3.4 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 250 - million - ton PTA device in East China is expected to stop production on February 10, 2026, and the specific restart time is undetermined [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Urea: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand patterns of various chemical products are affected by factors such as approaching the Spring Festival, production capacity changes, and downstream demand. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, and the market trends vary, with some showing short - term fluctuations and others having long - term pressure or improvement expectations [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of acrylonitrile futures declined during the day. Although there is an expected increase in supply, the pre - holiday supply shortage is difficult to reverse. Demand is mainly rational buying. The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures also declined, and as the Spring Festival approaches, the demand support for the market weakens [2] Polyester - PX and PTA futures prices fluctuated during the day. PX is recommended for long - position allocation in the first half of the year, but currently, the demand is declining, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. PTA load increased slightly, and the processing margin declined. Ethylene glycol inventory increased, but the rate of accumulation slowed down. In the second quarter, there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand. Short fiber has a good supply - demand pattern but weak downstream orders. Bottle chip processing margin has recovered, but there is long - term capacity pressure [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The main contract of pure benzene continued to decline, and the spot market trading slowed down. The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is expected to improve around the Spring Festival. The main contract of styrene futures declined, and the supply - demand structure will weaken until the Spring Festival, with seasonal inventory accumulation after the festival [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol overseas plant operation rate declined. Coastal demand is weak, and it is difficult to reduce inventory in the short term. Domestic production increased, and the main production areas have smooth inventory clearance. After the Spring Festival, the methanol market may slowly reduce inventory. Urea daily production is high, and the market is supported by agricultural and reserve demand. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to increase significantly [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC fluctuated slightly. The industry will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthening, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. Caustic soda is running strongly, but the profit is compressed, and there may be supply reduction due to potential maintenance. It is expected to run around the cost [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is running weakly, with increasing inventory and high supply. It is recommended to short on rebounds. Glass futures prices fluctuated upward, with inventory increasing and production capacity compressing. It is recommended to look for low - value buying opportunities [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: The commodity market has declined significantly. PX maintains its fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. Due to the Iranian geopolitical risk, there is still a risk in crude oil prices. The downstream PTA industry remains strong. China's PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high, with no production cut plan during the Spring Festival. With no new PTA production capacity throughout the year, existing facilities will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand base for PX. The PX supply is still tight, with limited global effective capacity release. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the reduction in domestic demand and production cuts by polyester factories have a limited negative impact on PTA [3] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): After the long - term slump of overseas ethylene glycol, the reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu is currently operating at about 80% capacity. Affected by profits, the plant plans to switch a 900,000 - ton EG production line to produce polyethylene in mid - February. The duration of the conversion is undetermined. Driven by this news, speculative market demand has increased significantly. The supply contraction has opened up room for price increases in ethylene glycol [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price increased from 463.5 yuan/barrel on February 5, 2026, to 465.4 yuan/barrel on February 6, 2026, with an increase of 1.90 yuan/barrel [3] - **PTA - SC**: The value increased from 1775.7 yuan/ton to 1783.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.19 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA/SC Ratio**: It rose from 1.5272 to 1.5274, an increase of 0.0003 [3] - **CFR China PX**: The price increased from 892 to 898, an increase of 6 [3] - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: Remained unchanged at 294 [3] - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: Rose from 5144 yuan/ton to 5166 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.0 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Spot Price**: Decreased from 5100 yuan/ton to 5085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.0 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: Decreased from 415.0 yuan/ton to 412.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.9 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: Decreased from 459.0 yuan/ton to 448.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.9 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Main Contract Basis**: Increased from (77) to (72), an increase of 5.0 [3] - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Remained unchanged at 103,568 [3] - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: Decreased from 3745 yuan/ton to 3743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton [3] - **MEG - Naphtha**: Decreased from (184.58) to (195.44), a decrease of 10.9 [3] - **MEG Domestic Market Price**: Decreased from 3649 yuan/ton to 3630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.0 yuan/ton [3] - **MEG Main Contract Basis**: Increased from - 103 to - 102, an increase of 1.0 [3] - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 85.92% [3] - **PTA Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 76.73% [3] - **MEG Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 61.67% [3] - **Polyester Load**: Decreased from 78.66% to 78.14%, a decrease of 0.52% [3] - **POY150D/48F Price**: Increased from 7000 to 7005, an increase of 5.0 [3] - **POY Cash Flow**: Increased from 167 to 191, an increase of 24.0 [3] - **FDY150D/96F Price**: Remained unchanged at 7240 [3] - **FDY Cash Flow**: Increased from (93) to (74), an increase of 19.0 [3] - **DTY150D/48F Price**: Remained unchanged at 8140 [3] - **DTY Cash Flow**: Increased from 107 to 126, an increase of 19.0 [3] - **Filament Sales Volume Ratio**: Decreased from 22% to 12%, a decrease of 10% [3] - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber Price**: Increased from 6525 to 6535, an increase of 10 [3] - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 42 to 71, an increase of 29.0 [3] - **Staple Fiber Sales Volume Ratio**: Increased from 52% to 56%, an increase of 4% [3] - **Semi - Bright Chip Price**: Decreased from 5865 to 5860, a decrease of 5.0 [3] - **Chip Cash Flow**: Increased from (68) to (54), an increase of 14.0 [3] - **Chip Sales Volume Ratio**: Increased from 35% to 64%, an increase of 29% [3] 3.2 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 3.6 million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned on the 15th - A 1.25 million - ton PTA plant in South China is expected to shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in mid - March [3]

【炼油板块】周前期，特朗普计划同伊朗对话，重启核谈判，地缘风险降温，叠加哈萨克斯坦油田及美 国原油产量逐渐恢复，供应压力回升，国际油价大幅下跌。周中期，美国击落一架伊朗无人机，伊朗武 装快艇逼近悬挂美国国旗的油轮，有媒体报道称原定的美伊谈判取消，地缘风险溢价迅速回归，叠加美 印达成贸易协议，有望提振需求，国际油价宽幅反弹。周后期，美国与伊朗同意周五举行核谈判，缓解 了市场对伊朗供应中断的担忧，地缘风险溢价回落，油价有所回落。2026年2月6日布伦特、WTI原油价 格分别为68.05、63.55美元/桶，较2026年1月30日分别-2.64、-1.66美元/桶。成品油方面，本周国内外成 品油价格价差偏震荡运行。 【化工板块】本周成本端支撑有限，化工品价格偏震荡运行，部分产品短期供给影响，价格有所上行。 聚烯烃方面，本周聚烯烃价格价差小幅震荡。EVA价格偏稳运行，价差小幅改善。纯苯产品价格价差小 幅上涨。苯乙烯华东码头本周期内到货有限，产品价格价差继续上涨。丙烯腈场内装置降负与检修情况 延续，局部供应偏紧，产品价格价差继续上行。聚碳酸酯产品价格稳中有涨。MMA产品价格偏稳运 行，价差小幅改善。 【聚酯&锦纶板块】 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Industry Weekly Report [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - **Crude Oil**: Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with geopolitical situation as the main driver. In the medium - and long - term, supply growth is expected to outpace demand, leading to inventory accumulation [7][8][12]. - **Polyester**: PTA is expected to have a stable market, while ethylene glycol may continue to decline in the short term. Demand for polyester may decline further before the Spring Festival but is expected to improve after the holiday [30][32][37]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp prices are expected to adjust in a range before the holiday, affected by the weakening downstream procurement and the overall market. [44][45] - **Soda Ash**: In the short term, the soda ash market is likely to remain weak and volatile. In the medium - and long - term, it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds, and pay close attention to supply - demand changes and policy trends [92]. 4. Summary by Directory Crude Oil 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined last week. The WTI main contract fell 3.35% to $63.54/barrel, Brent fell 3.05% to $67.7/barrel, and SC fell 1.98% to 461.5 yuan/barrel [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term focus on the US - Iran situation, and expect oil prices to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to whether US military actions have a substantial impact on production and transportation facilities [8]. 4.2. Fundamental Changes - **Geopolitical Factors**: The US - Iran nuclear negotiations are full of uncertainties. Iran is important in the crude oil market, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may affect oil prices. The US - India agreement on Russian oil imports is also uncertain [9][10]. - **Supply and Demand**: US crude oil production decreased last week, and refinery operating rates declined slightly. EIA and IEA are both pessimistic about the oil market in 2026, expecting supply to grow faster than demand and inventory to accumulate [11][12]. Polyester 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: PTA prices fell last week due to increased inventory and weak downstream demand. Ethylene glycol prices also declined due to weakening cost support and seasonal demand decline [30]. - **Operation Suggestions**: PTA is expected to have a stable market, while ethylene glycol may continue to decline in the short term [32]. 4.2. Main Driving Forces - **Downstream Consumption**: Polyester operating rates are expected to decline further, and the demand for PTA and ethylene glycol is likely to weaken before the Spring Festival but may improve after the holiday [33]. - **PTA**: PTA supply may slightly decrease, but the overall supply - demand situation remains unchanged. PX prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [34][35]. - **MEG**: The开工 rate of the ethylene glycol industry increased slightly last week, and the inventory at major ports in East China increased. The short - term supply - demand structure is still weak [36][37]. Paper Pulp 4.1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: As of Thursday, the pulp 05 contract closed at 5,254 yuan/ton, down 1.61% week - on - week. Spot prices of various wood pulps also declined [44]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, paper pulp prices are expected to adjust in a range before the holiday, affected by downstream procurement and market sentiment [45]. 4.2. Fundamental Changes - **Pulp Shipment Volume**: In November, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries decreased, while that of broad - leaf pulp increased [46]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In December, China's pulp import volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [53]. - **Pulp Inventory**: As of the end of November, the inventory days of global producers' coniferous and broad - leaf pulp increased. As of the end of January, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased [59]. Soda Ash 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The main contract of soda ash (SA605) fluctuated widely last week, with the price center moving down. Production decreased slightly, demand weakened, and inventory increased [85]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Do not easily go long. In the short term, the market is likely to remain weak and volatile. In the medium - and long - term, look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds [92]. 4.2. Soda Ash Market Situation - **Supply**: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of China's soda ash industry decreased slightly last week, and the weekly production decreased. New production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure remains high [93][94]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of February 5, the inventory of soda ash enterprises increased, indicating an imbalance between supply and demand [103][104]. - **Spot Market**: The domestic soda ash spot market was weak and volatile, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton next week [106][108]. - **Downstream**: The float glass industry is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand and increasing inventory, which has a negative impact on soda ash demand. The photovoltaic glass market is in a "weak - stable" state, and the long - term overcapacity problem remains [109][110][112]. - **Summary**: The soda ash market is facing a structural imbalance. The key to solving the problem lies in expanding exports and accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity [113].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: The commodity market has declined significantly. PX remains resilient during the high - level correction. Due to the Iranian geopolitical risk, the risk of crude oil prices still exists. The downstream PTA industry is continuously strong. China's PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high, with no production cut plan for the Spring Festival. With no new PTA capacity throughout the year, existing facilities will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing solid demand for PX. The PX supply is still tight, and the global effective capacity release is limited. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand has decreased, and the polyester factory's production cuts have a limited negative impact on PTA [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): After the long - term slump of overseas ethylene glycol, the reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch production of one of its 900,000 - ton EG production lines to polyethylene in mid - February due to profit considerations, which has increased the speculative demand in the market. The supply contraction has opened up the price increase space for ethylene glycol [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Data Changes - **Crude Oil and Related Ratios**: INE crude oil price decreased from 463.5 yuan/barrel on February 4, 2026, to 462.4 yuan/barrel on February 5, 2026. The PTA - SC decreased by 81.99 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio decreased by 0.0257 [2] - **PX Data**: CFR China PX price decreased from 892 to 902, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 25 [2] - **PTA Data**: The PTA main contract futures price increased from 5144 yuan/ton to 5218 yuan/ton, the PTA spot price increased from 5100 to 5140 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee increased by 10 yuan/ton to 405 yuan/ton, the on - paper processing fee decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 483 yuan/ton, and the main contract basis decreased by 15 [2] - **MEG Data**: The MEG main contract futures price decreased from 3745 to 3788 yuan/ton, the MEG - naphtha spread decreased by 5.2, the MEG domestic price decreased by 26 to 3675, and the main contract basis increased by 3 [2] - **Industry Operation Rates**: The PX operation rate remained at 85.92%, the PTA operation rate increased by 1.10% to 76.73%, the MEG operation rate remained at 61.67%, and the polyester load decreased by 0.58% to 79.24% [2] - **Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F decreased by 20, 15, and 15 yuan/ton respectively. Their cash flows changed by - 23, - 28, and - 28 respectively. The price of 1.4D straight - spun polyester staple decreased by 62, and its cash flow decreased by 6588. The prices of semi - bright chips decreased by 45, and their cash flows decreased by 2 [2] - **Product Sales Ratios**: The sales ratio of polyester filament decreased by 8% to 30%, the sales ratio of polyester staple fiber decreased by 12% to 64%, and the sales ratio of chips decreased by 70% to 35% [2] 3.2 Device Maintenance - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to stop for maintenance as planned on the 15th. A 1.25 - million - ton PIA device in South China is expected to stop on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in late March [2]