| ////◆ 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年08月25日 | | 影丙烯 | 女女女 | 塑料 | な女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | な女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PX | ★☆★ | PTA | ☆☆☆ | | | 乙二醇 | 女女女 | 短纤 | ★☆★ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 瓶片 | ☆☆☆ | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 尿素 | ななな | PVC | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 烧碱 | ななな | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 玻璃 | なな女 | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 两烯期货主力合约日内高开后围绕10日均线震荡整理。基本面上,生产企业库存压力不大 ...

MEG周度观点：情绪偏暖，易涨难跌 南华期货聚酯产业周报（20250824） ——订单陆续启动，需求边际好转 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证证号：Z0015428 ） 周嘉伟（期货从业资格证证号：F03133676 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 周度观点 【库存】华东港口库至54.7万吨，环比上期减少0.6万吨。 【装置】盛虹一线前期停车后重启中；陕煤渭化30w近期停车检修；内蒙古建元26w降负准备检修；新疆天盈 15w重启后正常运行。海外方面，马油75w近期重启招标；美国乐天70w近期重启。 【基本面情况】 基本面方面，供应端油煤双升，总负荷升至73.16%（+6.77%）；其中，乙烯制方面，浙石化重启后已提 负至满开，盛虹空分影响短停后重启运行；煤制方面陕煤渭化停车、建元降负，天盈重启运行，部分装置提 负，煤制负荷升至81.25%（+0.78%）；下周建元计划检修，沃能、盛虹计划重启提负，关注兑现情况，总负 荷预计将继续上调。效益方面，原料端原油、乙烯、动力煤均小幅走强，受益于绝对价格上涨，EG各路线利 润均有小幅修复。库存方面，本周到港计划较少，港口发货尚可，下周一港口显性库存预计去库3 ...

以色列空袭也门首都 已致4死67伤 据央视新闻消息，当地时间24日，也门胡塞武装控制的卫生部门表示，以色列对也门的空袭已造成4人 死亡，67人受伤。 以军当天发布声明说，袭击了也门胡塞武装在首都萨那地区的军事目标。包括总统府所在的军事基地、 发电厂以及燃料储存基地，这些设施被用于胡塞武装的军事活动。袭击是为了回应胡塞武装对以色列及 其平民的反复袭击，包括最近向以色列领土发射的地对地导弹和无人机。以军将坚决反击胡塞武装对以 色列持续不断的袭击，并决心继续在必要时消除对以色列平民构成的任何威胁。 据也门胡塞武装控制的马西拉电视台24日报道，萨那多个地点当天遭到以军空袭，包括石油公司和发电 站。这些目标分布在萨那市中心、南部和西南部。胡塞武装一名军官说："防空部队成功阻止了大多数 参与侵略的以色列战机，并迫使其撤离。" 目前俄方对此暂无回应。 需求旺季即将到来，PX价格有望上涨 自8月15日以来，PX期货主力合约开启了一轮上涨修复行情。聚酯行业"金九银十"需求旺季即将到来， PX期价能否保持强势？ 永安期货（600927）中级分析师顾涵阳表示，从基本面看，供应方面，海内外PX装置均处于检修回归 阶段，国内开工率逐步 ...

聚酯板块周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20250822 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 据央视新闻客户端报道，当地时间21日，美国总统特朗普谈及俄罗斯与乌克兰问题时称"大约两周后就能知道结果"。他表示，两周后，美 国或将采取其他策略。PVM Oi Associates的分析师Tamas Varga表示，和谈的不确定性意味着对俄罗斯实施更严厉制裁的可能性再次出现。 俄罗斯第一副总理表示，俄罗斯持续向印度供应石油、煤炭及石油产品，并看到俄罗斯液化天然气的出口潜力。目前印度对俄罗斯原油的购 买并未因关税威胁而大幅下降。自俄乌冲突引发原油贸易流向重构以来，俄罗斯已超越中东产油国，成为印度最大的原油进口来源国，占其 进口总量的30%至40%。 3 当地时间8月6日周三，特朗普签署行政命令，对来自印度的商品加征25%的额外关税，以回应印继续"直接或间接进口俄罗斯石油"，追加的 25%关税将在命令签署21天后生效。美国对亚洲原油进口买家的制裁措施引发市场忧虑，若印度自俄原油采购渠道受限，可能明显推升相关油 品消费区域的能源成本。 4 EIA ...

杨思佳认为，目前聚酯产业链基本面呈现"上强下弱"的格局，上游PX环节利润相对较好，而中下游PTA 和聚酯环节利润较低。从开工率看，PX环节开工率已经恢复至高位，国内开工率在84%左右，亚洲开 工率在74%左右。PTA环节开工率偏中性，在76%左右。受旺季临近影响，聚酯和下游织造开工率有所 提升，下游消费端进入季节性好转阶段，不过10月之后仍有压力，一方面面临消费季节性转淡；另一方 面出口有一定转弱预期。 "当前聚酯产业链的交易逻辑依然是强现实与弱预期的矛盾，尽管现货市场依然维持流动性偏紧格局， 但对今年上半年'抢出口'透支下半年需求的担忧短期难以证伪，需求端持续拖累聚酯板块估值。"戴一 帆表示，短期聚酯板块维持易涨难跌的格局。 长期来看，戴一帆表示，聚酯板块的涨势或难以维持，价格继续走强仍需成本端、供需面、宏观情绪等 更多超预期利多驱动。 杨思佳认为，9月份之前聚酯价格预计呈偏强走势，9月份之后关注产业链估值变化、需求旺季的成色以 及供应端的实质影响。 （文章来源：期货日报） 8月15日以来，国内聚酯板块品种全线反弹。南华期货能化总监戴一帆认为，聚酯板块品种近期持续上 涨是多方面因素共振引发的。具体来看，本周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is experiencing tight supply and low processing fees, with expectations for a price rebound due to cost support and supply-demand improvements [1][5]. Group 1: PTA Production and Supply - As of early August, domestic PTA processing fees dropped to a historical low of 126 CNY/ton, recently recovering to around 200 CNY/ton, but still low [2]. - The production cost of PTA is approximately 4500 CNY/ton, with companies facing a loss of about 265 CNY/ton [2]. - Domestic PTA production enterprises have shown some operational resilience, with several plants undergoing maintenance and restarts, leading to a slight increase in operating rates [2]. - As of August 20, the operating load of domestic PTA production enterprises was 78.62%, down 4.47 percentage points year-on-year, with a production volume of around 1.38 million tons and a demand of approximately 1.42 million tons, resulting in a supply gap of about 35,000 tons [2]. Group 2: PTA Inventory and Market Conditions - Due to the supply gap, domestic PTA inventory is declining, with social inventory at 3.6952 million tons as of August 15, down 36,300 tons week-on-week and 0.97% lower year-on-year [3]. - Factory inventory of PTA is at 3.66 days, down 0.16 days year-on-year, while polyester factory PTA raw material inventory is at 7.15 days, down 1.06 days year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Polyester Industry and Demand - The polyester industry is currently in a loss state, but conditions have improved, particularly for polyester filament, which has moved from a loss of 200-300 CNY/ton to a near breakeven point [4]. - As of August 20, the operating load of the domestic polyester industry was 86.46%, down 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for a slight increase in operating rates due to recent improvements [4]. - Polyester long filament inventory remains high, with significant de-stocking pressure; however, recent price reductions by some polyester companies have led to a decrease in inventory levels [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - Overall, the PTA supply is tight, production companies are facing increased losses, and there is a demand for price rebound. The processing fees are low and need to be repaired, while the supply side shows lower operating loads and declining inventories, indicating a potential for price rebound supported by costs [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda futures market strengthened, but the supply is expected to increase with more devices resuming and fewer maintenance plans. The rebound height is limited, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2500 - 2700. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is under pressure due to new capacity releases, while the downstream demand shows no sign of improvement. The industry is in the off - season, and it is recommended to take a bearish view [2]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price rebounded, driven by short - term supply - demand factors such as a large drop in US EIA inventory and strong terminal demand. However, there is still short - term supply pressure due to the increase in Cushing inventory and OPEC + production. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and consider expanding the 10 - 11/12 month spread on the inter - month side [5]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market has high port inventory due to large imports. The demand is differentiated, with traditional sectors weak and MTO profit improving. The 09 contract has significant inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by seasonal factors and Iranian gas - limit expectations [9][11][12]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term price has some support due to expected improvement in supply - demand and lower port arrivals in August, but the medium - term supply is sufficient, and the rebound drive is limited. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply is high, but the demand has improved with the increase in downstream 3S load and export expectations. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound space is limited [16]. Urea Industry - The urea price fluctuated, mainly driven by export sentiment and inventory pressure. The fundamentals have limited changes, with increased daily production and weak agricultural demand. The market is expected to be volatile [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase as some domestic PX plants restart. The short - term price has support, and it is recommended to trade it in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: The short - term supply - demand has improved, but the medium - term is under pressure. It is recommended to trade it in the range of 4600 - 4800 and do reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [50]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply and demand are neutral to positive in the short - term, and it is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade the EG01 contract in the range of 4350 - 4550 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: The price has some support due to the approaching peak season, but the rebound drive is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure above 6500 for the PF10 contract [50]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing fee has support, and the absolute price follows the cost. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at low levels [50]. Polyolefin Industry - The PP/PE market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory depletion. The supply pressure is easing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold the LP 01 contract as the market fluctuates in the short - term [54]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Chlor - alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends. The export profit of caustic soda decreased, while the PVC export profit increased [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, while the PVC total operating rate increased [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed some improvement [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends, with an increase in some and a decrease in others [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US EIA inventory decreased significantly, but Cushing inventory increased, and OPEC + production increased [5]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: The methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic operating rate decreased slightly, while the overseas operating rate increased slightly. The downstream MTO operating rate increased [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their raw materials changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [16]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, while the styrene inventory increased [16]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products showed different trends [16]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The urea futures and spot prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [19]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily production decreased slightly, and the inventory in some areas changed [19]. - **Position and Volume**: The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, and the trading volume increased significantly [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of raw materials such as crude oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [50]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and downstream polyester products showed different trends [50]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased, and the PTA inventory situation was also mentioned [50]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot changed, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [54]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries showed different trends [54]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories showed different trends [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][4][6][7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in US crude oil inventories supports the rebound of oil prices, but the continuous driving force remains to be observed, and oil prices are in a low - range oscillating rhythm. Geopolitical factors such as the Iran nuclear negotiation deadline and potential sanctions also affect the oil market [1]. - The consumption of marine fuel in Singapore increased in July, but the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are suppressed by sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market shows signs of stabilization. In the short term, the upward space of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is not optimistic [3]. - The asphalt market is expected to see a situation of increasing supply and demand in August, and the price will oscillate in a range due to the lack of obvious one - sided driving force [4]. - The polyester market shows signs of demand recovery. PX prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil prices, and PTA and ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6]. - The rubber market has firm raw materials, but tire demand and开工 decline, and inventory accumulates. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate [6]. - The methanol market has a short - term low supply due to many domestic device overhauls, but the supply will gradually recover. The port inventory is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate narrowly with a near - weak and far - strong structure [6][7]. - The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand. The cost side does not fluctuate significantly, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7]. - The polyvinyl chloride market has high - level supply oscillations and gradually recovering demand. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. The EIA inventory report showed a decline in US crude oil and gasoline inventories but an increase in distillate inventories. As the deadline for Iran's nuclear negotiation and cooperation approaches, geopolitical risks exist. Indian companies have resumed purchasing Russian oil. The current destocking of US crude oil supports the price rebound, but the continuous driving force remains to be observed, and the price is in a low - range oscillating rhythm [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil on the SHFE rose, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil fell. In July, Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a 19 - month high. High - sulfur fuel oil demand increased significantly, and its market share is approaching 40%. In August, the supply of traditional fuel oil in Singapore is still abundant. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by supply, while the high - sulfur market may be supported by reduced supply in September [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt on the SHFE rose. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in September is expected to increase year - on - year and month - on - month. The social inventory rate decreased slightly, and the refinery inventory level increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand in the north is stable, while the demand in the east is expected to recover. The price will oscillate in a range in August [4]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures all rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang declined. A Malaysian MEG device has restarted. PX supply and demand are recovering, and PTA and ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber all fell. Rubber raw materials are firm, but tire demand and开工 decline, and inventory accumulates. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, spot prices in different regions and international prices are given. Recently, there have been many domestic device overhauls, and the supply is at a short - term low. The supply will gradually recover, and the arrival volume is expected to remain high. The port inventory will increase in the short term, and the price will oscillate narrowly with a near - weak and far - strong structure [6][7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, prices and production profits of different types of polyolefins are provided. The subsequent production volume will remain high, and the current downstream enterprise开工 is low. As the peak demand season approaches, the industry开工 rate is expected to increase, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC market prices in East, North, and South China all decreased. The supply oscillates at a high level, and the demand is gradually recovering. The basis and monthly spread are relatively high, and it is expected that the monthly spread will narrow, and the price will oscillate weakly [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Data on the basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their respective changes from August 19th to 20th [9]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased last week, while distillate inventories increased. As of August 15th, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels, which was more than the market expectation. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 419,000 barrels [12]. - JODI data shows that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June dropped to a three - month low, with exports falling from 6.191 million barrels per day in May to 6.141 million barrels per day. However, the crude oil production in June was 9.752 million barrels per day, higher than that in May [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. from 2021 to 2025 are presented [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28][31]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips are provided [32][34][38][41][44][45]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different contracts of various products such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber are shown [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spreads, PP - LLDPE spreads, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spreads are presented [67][68][69][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are provided [72][76]. 4. Research Team Members - **Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director**: Zhong Meiyan, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, has won multiple "Excellent Analyst" awards and led the team to win many industry service awards. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research [78]. - **Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst**: Du Bingqin, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University, has won multiple industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [79]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, a finance master, has won multiple awards and is engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, PTA, MEG, and other futures varieties [80]. - **Methanol/PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with an engineering master's degree from China University of Petroleum (East China), is a mid - level economist and has years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [81].

Group 1: Industry Trends and Risk Management - The polyester industry is focusing on risk management as a vital aspect of modern enterprises, emphasizing the importance of a closed-loop management system that includes prevention, control, and hedging [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has developed a comprehensive futures market for polyester, providing industry players with a rich toolbox for risk management and enhancing operational resilience [1] - PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) is highlighted as the most established polyester chain futures product, with a hedging efficiency exceeding 98% [1] Group 2: Company Strategies and Innovations - Rongsheng Petrochemical has adapted its risk management strategies for PX (Para-Xylene) by dynamically adjusting product flows and managing PX inventory to mitigate risks [2] - New Fengming Group has established a comprehensive dynamic risk control system across its supply chain, utilizing futures markets to optimize procurement and hedge against price volatility [2] - Wan Kai New Materials Co., Ltd. benefits from the flexibility provided by futures tools to manage market risks associated with bottle sales, which often involve long-term orders and "pulse-like" sales patterns [3] Group 3: Market Developments and Future Outlook - The liquidity of PX futures is increasing, and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is promoting the opening of related products, which will expand market participation opportunities for companies [3] - Trade merchants are playing a crucial role in managing inventory pressures within the polyester industry, especially during accumulation phases, leveraging financial tools for effective inventory management [3]

Core Viewpoint - The development of the polyester industry chain relies heavily on the support of futures tools, which enhance price discovery and risk management capabilities for enterprises in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: Development of Polyester Futures Market - The first chemical futures product, PTA futures, was launched in 2006 at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, providing essential risk management tools for the polyester industry [3]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has successfully launched eight futures and options products, including PTA, short fiber, PX, and bottle chips, creating a comprehensive risk management toolset for the polyester industry [4]. - The overall market operation of polyester futures has been stable, effectively guiding production planning, managing price volatility risks, and stabilizing operations for enterprises [3][4]. Group 2: Internationalization and Market Participation - As of July 2025, there are 760 foreign clients from over 30 countries and regions participating in the Chinese futures market, indicating strong international trust and engagement [7]. - The introduction of a delivery system for PTA export-type vehicles and the optimization of hedging mechanisms have enhanced the ability of domestic enterprises to manage risks and stabilize profits [4][5]. - The integration of futures tools into daily operations of polyester enterprises has improved their operational resilience and competitiveness in the global market [10]. Group 3: Future Directions and Strategies - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to refine existing products, expand international openness, and enhance industry services to further support the manufacturing sector [5]. - The exchange aims to deepen collaboration with industry stakeholders to better understand and address the operational challenges faced by enterprises [5]. - Continuous monitoring and regulation of market operations will be emphasized to ensure stable functioning of the futures market [5].