Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market is awaiting Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday to verify the reasonableness of bets on a September interest rate cut. Due to the sharp rebound in the US PPI and the resilience of retail data, there are concerns that Powell may adopt a hawkish stance, leading to cautious trading sentiment. However, the interference with the Fed's independence by Trump's call for Cook to resign has weakened the US dollar and provided a rebound opportunity for precious metals. In the future, the potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation under tariff shocks supports precious metals, and it is expected that precious metals will continue to trade in a high-range oscillation pattern. [2][3] - For copper, the market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech at the "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting." Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [5][9] - Alumina's price is reverting to fundamentals as market speculation cools. Although the overall supply-demand situation remains in surplus, short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [11][13][15] - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [18][21] - In the case of casting aluminum alloy, the supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [26][27] - Zinc prices are under pressure due to the continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption, leading to a build-up in social inventory. [29][32] - Lead prices are likely to trade in a range due to weak supply and demand. The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. [35][36][39] - Nickel prices are expected to trade in a wide range due to the large supply surplus and the lack of clear short-term supply-demand contradictions. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. [41][42][43] - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range, with limited upward momentum due to weak demand and downward support from cost factors. The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. [47] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to trade in a range, with the core contradiction being the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. [50][51][52] - Polysilicon prices are expected to trade in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Although the fundamental situation is bearish due to oversupply in August, the price is supported by cost factors. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [54][55][56] - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to rebound after a significant decline. The market overreacted to negative news, but the supply-demand situation may tighten in September due to reduced imports. The price is recommended to be bought after a sufficient correction. [58][60][61] - Tin prices are expected to continue to trade in an oscillatory pattern. The market is in a state of tight balance with weak supply and demand. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the recovery of production in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter. [63][65][66] Summary by Directory Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.94% to $3,347.335 per ounce, and London silver rose 1.44% to $37.855 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts also closed higher. The US dollar index fell 0.05% to 98.218, the 10-year US Treasury yield declined to 4.2868%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.08% to 7.177. [2] Important News - Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign, and Cook refused. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most officials believed it was appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged, but more officials were open to a September rate cut after the August 1 employment report. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 81.9%. Israel has not responded to the ceasefire proposal from Hamas. [2] Logic Analysis - The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The interference with the Fed's independence has weakened the US dollar and supported precious metals. The potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation supports precious metals in the future. [3] Trading Strategy - Go long on dips near the 5-day moving average for single positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [3] Copper Market Review - The night session of the SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 78,730 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the LME copper closed at $9,721 per ton, up 0.38%. The LME inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 156,300 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 593 tons to 270,500 tons. [5] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. Codelco will lower its 2025 production guidance due to an accident at its El Teniente mine. China's imports of copper scrap, copper ore, and refined copper in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. [5][7][8] Logic Analysis - The market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech. Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [9] Trading Strategy - Copper prices are under pressure due to short-term supply increases. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [9] Alumina Market Review - The night session of the alumina 2509 contract rose 46 yuan to 3,155 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed slight changes. [11] Important News - A large aluminum plant in the northwest made a large-scale spot purchase, which led to a slight decline in spot prices. The national alumina production capacity and operating rate increased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipts increased by 2,997 tons to 75,050 tons. Overseas, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $369 per ton FOB Australia for September shipment. China's alumina exports and imports in July increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The import of bauxite also increased significantly. [11][12][13] Logic Analysis - The market speculation sentiment has cooled, and the price is reverting to fundamentals. The supply-demand situation remains in surplus, but short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [13][15] Trading Strategy - Alumina prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night session of the SHFE aluminum 2509 contract rose 70 yuan to 20,590 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined. [18] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. There are discussions about a potential meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky. The main market electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 0.6 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,529 tons to 62,938 tons. A 600,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia has entered the construction phase. China's aluminum ingot imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. A project in Inner Mongolia is expected to be completed by the end of the year. [18][19][21] Logic Analysis - The macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [21] Trading Strategy - Aluminum prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern in the short term. Consider a long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum arbitrage if the Russia-Ukraine issue continues to ease, and exit if the talks are not successful. Pay attention to the widening of the contango when the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreases. Stay on the sidelines for options trading. [22] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night session of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 45 yuan to 20,090 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions remained stable. [24] Important News - A policy document may affect the recycling aluminum industry. The weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry in July increased slightly compared to June, and the industry's theoretical profit increased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions increased slightly. [26] Logic Analysis - The supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [27] Trading Strategy - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [28] Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market rose 0.58% to $2,786 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.41% to 22,300 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanghai remained stable, and the downstream showed a wait-and-see attitude. [29] Important News - China's zinc concentrate imports in July increased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The exports of galvanized sheets increased slightly, while the exports of zinc oxide and die-cast zinc alloy decreased significantly. The safety inspections in northern lead-zinc mines have increased, but there is no direct impact on production for now. [29][30][31] Logic Analysis - The continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption have led to a build-up in social inventory, putting pressure on zinc prices. [32] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the domestic social inventory situation. If there is a significant build-up, zinc prices may decline further. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [33] Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market rose 0.33% to $1,980.5 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.18% to 16,775 yuan/ton. The spot price of SMM1 lead declined, and the downstream battery production enterprises mainly made just-in-time purchases. [35] Important News - China's lead-acid battery imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. Some secondary lead smelters lowered their purchase prices, but the arrival of scrap lead was not significantly improved. The LME received a registration application for a new lead brand. [35] Logic Analysis - The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. The supply and demand are both weak, and lead prices are likely to trade in a range. [36][39] Trading Strategy - Trade lead prices in a range by selling high and buying low. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [39] Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price fell $15 to $15,045 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 18 tons to 209,346 tons. The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 180 yuan to 120,370 yuan/ton. The premiums of different nickel products showed different changes. [41] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that only two officials voted against keeping interest rates unchanged. NATO discussed Ukraine's security guarantee issue. The global refined nickel supply was in surplus in June and from January to June. [41][42] Logic Analysis - The large supply surplus limits the upward movement of nickel prices. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. The short-term supply-demand situation is balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a wide range. [43][45] Trading Strategy - Sell out-of-the-money put options. [45] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract SS2510 remained unchanged at 12,830 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold-rolled and hot-rolled stainless steel remained stable. [47] Important News - A 600,000-set carbon steel and stainless steel high-end precision casting project started construction. The stainless steel inventory in Foshan decreased slightly. [47] Logic Analysis - The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. The concentration of steel mill maintenance in August and the subsequent planned resumptions have increased the sales pressure. The increase in the nickel iron price provides cost support, but the lack of demand limits the upward movement of prices. [47] Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. [48] Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures price declined due to the fall in coking coal and polysilicon prices. The spot prices also decreased. [51] Important News - A new product of a subsidiary of Xin'an Co., Ltd. was included in the list of excellent industrial new products in Zhejiang Province. [51] Logic Analysis - The core contradiction in the industrial silicon market is the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. The supply and demand situation is relatively balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a range. [52] Trading Strategy - Trade industrial silicon prices in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton by buying on dips near the lower end of the range. Consider a reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. [52] Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures price fell and then rebounded after the limit-down of lithium carbonate.，The spot prices increased slightly. [54][55] Important News - Trump stated that his government will not approve photovoltaic or wind power projects. [55] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon production in August is expected to be in surplus, but the price is supported by cost factors. The previous low price level provides strong support, and the high price level is limited by the potential large-scale selling for delivery. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [55] Trading Strategy - Buy polysilicon futures on dips in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Consider a positive arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out-of-the-money put options and buy call options. [56] Carbonate Lithium Market Review - The carbonate lithium futures price hit the limit-down, and the spot prices remained stable. [58] Important News - A Chilean lithium producer expects an increase in sales in the third quarter and plans to submit an environmental research report for a lithium project next year. The government exposed two cases of tax fraud in the "new three" fields. The retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in August showed growth compared to the same period last year and the previous month. [58][60] Logic Analysis - The sharp decline in carbonate lithium prices was due to market overreaction to negative news and the exit of large funds. However, the supply-demand situation may tighten in

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro factors and supply - demand fundamentals. With the opening of the import window, the inflow of imported goods exerts pressure on prices, while downstream demand shows rigid procurement [8]. - The alumina market is influenced by policy changes and supply - demand imbalances. The overall supply is tight, and the actual demand is weak [15][31]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by overseas sanctions and domestic inventory changes. The domestic price is relatively resistant to decline compared with the external market [23]. - The zinc market has a bearish fundamental situation with increasing domestic supply and weak terminal consumption, but the LME zinc price may be supported in the short - term [38]. - The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The production of recycled lead is reduced due to losses, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [42][43]. - The nickel market has a large supply surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely, waiting for macro changes [48]. - The stainless steel market is affected by external demand and cost factors. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [55]. - The tin market is in a tight - balance state of supply and demand. The supply of ore is tight, and the production of smelters is affected. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [62]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight - balance state with high inventory. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [68]. - The polysilicon market has an oversupply situation in August, but the spot price is rising. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [72]. - The lithium carbonate market may continue to adjust at a high level in the short - term, and there may be an opportunity for a second - round rise after the stabilization of the commodity index [77]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,540 yuan/ton, down 0.05%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 732 lots to 460,600 lots. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton [2]. - **Important Information**: In July, China's scrap copper imports increased by 3.73% month - on - month to 183,200 tons, and refined copper exports increased by nearly 50% month - on - month to 118,398 tons. On August 20, Blue Moon Metals obtained at least $140 million in financing for the Nussir copper project in Norway, which is expected to be put into production in September 2027 [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market focuses on the future interest - rate cut rhythm. The supply of copper ore has been alleviated, and the inflow of imported goods exerts pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows rigid procurement [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term supply increase puts pressure on copper prices; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [12]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose by 80 yuan to 20,125 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 73 lots to 9,553 lots. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased [10]. - **Important Information**: The four - ministry notice affects the recycled aluminum industry. In July, the weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry increased by 85 yuan/ton compared with June, and the profit per ton increased by 104 yuan/ton. On August 21, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places decreased by 66 tons [10][11][27][29]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the overall market supply is tight. The actual demand is weak [15][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates with the aluminum price; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [16][17][32][33]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose by 100 yuan to 20,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,003 lots to 564,100 lots. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased [19]. - **Important Information**: The Fed's July meeting minutes showed a hawkish signal. The White House is considering a tri - party meeting. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the import and export volume changed in July [19][20][22]. - **Trading Logic**: Overseas sanctions on Russian aluminum and the Jackson Hole meeting affect the market. The domestic inventory decline may make the domestic price relatively resistant to decline [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates with the external market in the short - term; recommend short - term arbitrage strategies and waiting and seeing for options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2510 rose by 0.09% to 22,265 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai zinc index increased by 1,549 lots to 216,200 lots. The spot trading in Shanghai was weak [35]. - **Important Information**: As of August 21, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 132,900 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons compared with August 18. The safety inspection in northern lead - zinc mines has increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the terminal consumption is weak. The LME zinc price may be supported in the short - term [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [38]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 fell by 0.45% to 16,740 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai lead index increased by 3,663 lots to 96,400 lots. The spot trading of refined lead was difficult [40]. - **Important Information**: As of August 21, the social inventory of lead ingots was 69,900 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons compared with August 18 [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The consumption is weak, and the loss of recycled lead smelters is expanding, resulting in a reduction in production [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [43]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell by 360 yuan to 119,830 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased by 3,803 lots. The spot premium of different types of nickel increased [45][46]. - **Important Information**: In June 2025, the global refined nickel supply surplus was 12,600 tons, and from January to June, the supply surplus was 180,000 tons [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel supply surplus is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract SS2510 fell by 35 yuan to 12,795 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased by 3,900 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel is given [50]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel casting project in Zhejiang started construction. The sample inventory in Foshan decreased slightly, while the social inventory in 89 warehouses increased [51][55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The external demand is affected by the global economy and tariffs, and the price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and selling out - of - the - money put options [53][56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 266,480 yuan/ton, down 1,960 yuan/ton or 0.73%. The spot price of tin ingots decreased [59]. - **Important Information**: In June 2025, the global refined tin supply shortage was 3,500 tons, and from January to June, the supply shortage was 7,800 tons [60]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's attitude affects the market. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of smelters is affected. The market is in a tight - balance state [61][62]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate; recommend waiting and seeing for options [63][64]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose by 3.66% to 8,635 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable [65][66]. - **Important Information**: A product of Xin'an Co., Ltd. was included in the list of excellent industrial new products in Zhejiang [67]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a tight - balance state with high inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to operate within a range; recommend participating in the reverse arbitrage of 11 and 12 contracts; recommend waiting and seeing for options [68]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures oscillated narrowly and closed at 51,530 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The spot price of polysilicon increased [69][70]. - **Important Information**: The US government tightened the approval of renewable energy projects [71]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is an oversupply in August, but the spot price is rising, and it is recommended to buy on dips [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips; recommend conducting a positive arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts; recommend selling out - of - the - money put options and buying call options [73]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate 2511 fell by 140 yuan to 82,760 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased by 21,134 lots. The spot price decreased [74]. - **Important Information**: A Chilean lithium producer expects an increase in sales in the third quarter. The tax department exposed tax - evasion cases in the "new three" fields. The new - energy vehicle market shows growth [75][76]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price may continue to adjust at a high level in the short - term, and there may be an opportunity for a second - round rise [77]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy after a sufficient correction; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage; recommend selling out - of - the - money put options of 2511 [78][79][80].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. In the market, small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Attention should be paid to the short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. - The crude oil market has a complex situation. The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, but there are concerns about US summer demand and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak [3]. - The gold market is affected by macro - economic and geopolitical factors. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, but the strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Attention should be paid to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. - For chemical products, the cost of PTA is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term, but there is an expectation of demand improvement. Ethylene glycol has a good fundamental situation and fluctuates with the cost end. The fundamentals of PVC, PP, plastic, etc. have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [7][8][9][11][13]. - In the agricultural products market, the corn price is under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply and weak downstream demand, but it rebounds in the short term. The peanut price is affected by the expected increase in planting area and is in a weak position in the short term. The cotton price is affected by domestic and foreign supply - demand situations and shows a weak shock [20][22][23]. - In the metal market, the copper market is affected by global and domestic factors, and attention should be paid to the direction choice after the convergence. The aluminum market is in a shock trend, and the alumina price is under pressure. The casting aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price to fluctuate, and the lithium carbonate price is affected by cost, supply, and demand and is dominated by sentiment in the short term [29][30][32][33][34]. - In the black market, the stainless - steel, rebar, and hot - rolled coil prices are in a weak shock in the short term due to factors such as cost support weakening and weak demand. The iron ore price may decline in the short term, and the coking coal and coke prices may also fluctuate downward [36][37][38][39][41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. Small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Pay attention to short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. Crude Oil - The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, and the weakening US dollar provides some support. However, there are concerns about US summer demand, and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak. WTI main contract should pay attention to the support near $62 - 63 per barrel [3]. Gold - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with an 86.1% probability, but strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Pay attention to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. Silver - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. Pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. Chemicals PTA - The cost is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term. The inventory days are decreasing, and the production capacity change is not significant. There is an expectation of demand improvement in the downstream. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the resistance level at 4800 yuan per ton [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The domestic supply turns loose after the restart of coal - to - ethylene glycol plants. The inventory has a slight increase, but imports may decrease. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. It fluctuates with the cost end [8]. PVC - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory has increased. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [9][10]. PP - The production capacity utilization rate has a slight increase, and the output has increased. The downstream average start - up rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force and fluctuate with market sentiment [11][12]. Plastic - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the downstream start - up rate has increased slightly. The inventory has changed from a downward trend to an upward trend. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [13]. Soda Ash - The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The market is affected by many news, and it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [14]. Glass - The supply has a narrow - range fluctuation, the demand is weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Affected by environmental protection restrictions, it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [16]. Rubber - The rubber price is affected by supply and demand. The supply is expected to be loose, and the downstream demand is affected by trade barriers. Pay attention to the resonance market with other domestic varieties and the pressure above the main contract [18]. Methanol - The futures price has increased, the inventory has increased, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased. There is a prominent supply - demand contradiction. The cost provides some support, and the price fluctuates in a range [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - The US corn production exceeds expectations, and the domestic supply is abundant. The downstream demand is weak, but it rebounds in the short term due to the influence of other agricultural product sectors [20][21]. Peanut - The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase. The new peanuts are about to be listed, and the old - crop inventory is being consumed. The current supply - demand is weak, and the price is supported by the strength of the oil category [22]. Cotton - The US Department of Agriculture's report is positive, but the domestic new - year cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The short - term supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, but there is a negative impact from the expected increase in import quotas. The price is in a weak shock [23]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, it is affected by trade policies and weather. Domestically, the supply pressure is prominent, but there is an expectation of supply shortage in the fourth quarter. The price may test the upper pressure level in the short term [24]. Soybean Oil - The import cost provides support, and the domestic supply pressure is large. The demand is driven by festivals. The price is in a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the lower support level [25][26]. Live Pigs - The supply will remain high in the short term, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price fluctuates weakly and may fluctuate in a range in the short term [27]. Eggs - The supply pressure is significant, and the egg - laying hen inventory is high. The short - term price is boosted by festival preparations, but the upward driving force is insufficient. The current futures price valuation is low [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - The copper market is affected by global and domestic factors. The global inventory transfer is coming to an end, and domestic policies boost market sentiment. Pay attention to the direction choice after the convergence of the price triangle [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high prices. The inventory has increased, and it may continue to fluctuate in the range of 20300 - 21000 yuan per ton [30][31]. Alumina - The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has increased. The main contract may be in a weak shock in the short term [32]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The cost provides support, the supply is in surplus, and the demand is affected by the off - season. The inventory is at a relatively high level, and it follows the aluminum price to fluctuate [33]. Lithium Carbonate - The cost is strongly supported, the supply pressure has weakened, and the demand is resilient. The futures price has a flash - crash limit - down, and it may fill the previous gap in the short term [34]. Industrial Silicon - The supply has a slight increase, and the demand structure is differentiated. The fundamentals are under pressure and fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [35]. Polysilicon - The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure. The price is in a wide - range shock in the short term [36]. Black Stainless Steel - The cost support has weakened, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand in the off - season is not good. The price is in a weak shock in the short term [36]. Rebar - The "anti - involution" policy effect is reflected, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. The price is in a high - level weak shock in the short term [37]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Similar to rebar, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has accumulated. The price changes from a single - side rise to a high - level shock [38]. Iron Ore - The supply pressure has increased, the demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract may decline in the short term [39][40]. Coal - For coking coal, the supply recovery is slow, and the demand has weakened marginally. For coke, the demand is supported by high - level iron - water production, but the inventory removal rate has slowed down. The prices of coking coal and coke may decline in the short term [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - In the short - term, copper pricing returns to macro trading. With weak economic expectations, the upside of copper prices is under pressure, but the downside space is also difficult to open. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The key lies in the inflation and employment data in the US in August, which will determine the Fed's decision in the September interest - rate meeting [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market will remain in a slight surplus, with the main contract price expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton this week. It is recommended to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, short - term prices are still under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price reference of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and focus on the 21,000 pressure level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply - demand weakness pattern of recycled aluminum alloy is expected to continue, with the price mainly fluctuating narrowly, and the main contract referring to 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - In the short - term, the driving force for zinc prices is weak, and they are likely to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - In the short - term, the driving force for tin prices is limited, and they will fluctuate widely. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [9]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [10]. Stainless Steel - In the short - term, the stainless - steel price will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main contract operating between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and ferronickel dynamics [11]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with strong support likely between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [12]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,770 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous value [1]. - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,520 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous value [3]. - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remains unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton [4]. - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous value [6]. - SMM 1 tin price is 267,500 yuan/ton, up 0.49% from the previous value [9]. - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,900 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the previous value [10]. - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) stainless steel price is 13,050 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous value [11]. - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 85,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [12]. Fundamental Data Copper - July electrolytic copper production is 1174.3 thousand tons, up 3.47% month - on - month [1]. - July electrolytic copper imports are 296.9 thousand tons, down 1.20% from the previous month [1]. Aluminum - July alumina production is 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month [3]. - July electrolytic aluminum production is 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - July recycled aluminum alloy ingot production is 625 thousand tons, up 1.63% month - on - month [4]. - July primary aluminum alloy ingot production is 266 thousand tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [4]. Zinc - July refined zinc production is 602.8 thousand tons, up 3.03% month - on - month [6]. - July refined zinc imports are 17.9 thousand tons, down 50.35% from the previous month [6]. Tin - July tin ore imports are 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - July SMM refined tin production is 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel - China's refined nickel production in a certain period is 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month [10]. - Refined nickel imports in a certain period are 19,157 tons, up 116.90% from the previous period [10]. Stainless Steel - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) in a certain period is 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [11]. - Stainless steel imports in a certain period are 109.5 thousand tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [11]. Lithium Carbonate - July lithium carbonate production is 93,958 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month [12]. - July lithium carbonate demand is 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month [12].

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 20, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai Nickel opened at 120,330 yuan/ton and closed at 119,930 yuan/ton, a change of -0.48% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 63,676 lots and an open interest of 50,856 lots [1] - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel switched to the 2510 contract. The night session opened flat at 120,430 yuan/ton, fluctuating between 120,200 - 121,080 yuan/ton. Affected by weak new - energy demand and stainless - steel inventory pressure, it failed to break through the key resistance level of 121,000 yuan/ton. The night session closed down 0.33% at 120,450 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 63,118 lots, about 15% less than the previous day. The day session briefly rose to 120,940 yuan/ton but then fell to an intraday low of 119,620 yuan/ton due to increased domestic inventory and the continued decline of LME nickel. The final closing price dropped to 120,060 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.46%, with a trading volume of 77,982 lots, about 23% more than the night session. LME nickel fell 0.73% and 0.60% on August 19 and 20 respectively, reaching a two - week low of 15,060 US dollars/ton [2] - The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see attitude, and the nickel ore price is stable. In the Philippines, the FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore resources in September is mostly 32 US dollars. The downstream nickel - iron market is stabilizing, but iron plants are still in losses and are not willing to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in August decreased slightly by 0.03 - 0.04 US dollars; the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the premium in the second phase of August to decline [3] - In July 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 38,164 tons, a 124% increase from the previous month and a 703% increase from the same period last year. Among them, the imports of other unwrought non - alloy nickel were 35,506 tons, accounting for 93% of the refined nickel imports. Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,200 yuan/ton, a 600 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was fair. The spot premiums of various brands of refined nickel were stable, with a slight increase in the spot premiums of Jinchuan and Russian nickel [3] Strategy - In the short term, nickel prices will be weak, with large inventory pressure and a significant increase in imports. In the medium term, the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse, and the upside space is limited. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 12,925 yuan/ton and closed at 12,820 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 149,736 lots and an open interest of 135,764 lots [5] - The main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,000 yuan/ton in the night session, then quickly dropped to an intraday low of 12,855 yuan/ton due to the decline of LME nickel, and finally closed down 140 yuan at 12,885 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.07%, with a trading volume of 134,000 lots, about 18% more than the previous day. The night session showed the characteristic of short - side active position - increasing, and the net short positions of the top 20 seats increased to 11,449 lots. The day session briefly rebounded to 12,895 yuan/ton but then fell again due to the accumulation of stainless - steel social inventory and the expectation of the release of Indonesian nickel ore quotas. The final closing price dropped to 12,820 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.50%, with a trading volume of 149,700 lots, a five - day high. The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2,215 tons to 44,298 tons, a decline of 4.76% [6] - The spot market trading of stainless steel is increasingly light, mainly concentrated on low - price resources. Affected by the decline of the futures market and the completion of downstream restocking, there is a strong bearish sentiment in the future market. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,050 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is also 13,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 310 - 510 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 927.5 yuan/nickel point [6] Strategy - Currently in the traditional off - season of consumption, with weak demand and no fundamental change in the fundamentals, it is expected that the stainless - steel price will fluctuate weakly in the near future. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and others. It provides market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal. Overall, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals, the market is in a state of flux, and different trading strategies are recommended for different metals, mainly including temporary observation, waiting for new entry opportunities, and specific operations like high - selling and low - buying in certain ranges [2][6][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.5% at $3316.035 per ounce, London silver down 1.8% at $37.32 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.26, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.3038%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.03% to 7.183 [2]. - **Important Information**: There are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. For example, in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 86.1% [2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The unexpected rise in US PPI and strong retail data have dampened the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease. However, the US may face "stagflation - like" situation, so it's advisable to wait and see for new entry opportunities [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [2][4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,550 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. The LME copper closed at $9,684.5 per ton, down 0.69%. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 873 tons to 269,900 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: Two US copper manufacturers raised prices by 5%, and First Quantum Mining started a $1.25 - billion expansion project in Zambia [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The ore supply shortage has been temporarily alleviated, the LME inventory increase has slowed down, and domestic imports may increase, putting pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows different trends, with improved acceptance of prices [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2509 contract fell to 3,087 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines or remained flat [11]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and some alumina enterprises have maintenance plans. Alumina exports and ore imports increased [11][12]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market speculation has cooled, and the alumina market is in a state of oversupply. However, short - term supply is not significantly excessive due to maintenance plans [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may be in a high - level consolidation in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [13][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell to 20,500 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [17]. - **Important Information**: The US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list, and there are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit. Aluminum inventory remained stable [17][19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine issue may lead to changes in sanctions on Russian aluminum. The domestic inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream has shown more active inventory - building [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: In unilateral trading, the price may decline with the external market; in arbitrage, short - term long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum, and exit if the talks are not successful; observe in option trading [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,055 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly flat or slightly increased [24]. - **Important Information**: Four - ministry policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the industry's profit has improved in July. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [24][25]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some factories have reduced production. The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline with aluminum prices in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.5% to $2,770 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 fell 0.29% to 22,180 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was mainly among traders [28]. - **Important Information**: A zinc smelter in the northwest has a maintenance plan, and Tianjin has transportation restrictions [28]. - **Logical Analysis**: The domestic supply has increased, the terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating, putting pressure on prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead fell 0.33% to $1,974 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 fell 0.56% to 16,720 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [32][34]. - **Important Information**: A small - scale recycled lead smelter in the south plans to resume production [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The consumption has not improved significantly, but the cost provides some support for the price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try high - selling and low - buying within a range in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel fell to $15,060 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell to 120,320 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [38]. - **Important Information**: There are plans for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit [38]. - **Logical Analysis**: No detailed logical analysis provided in the text. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 12,825 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A German company proposed a tariff exemption for SMEs' steel imports, and the US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list. A nickel - iron factory sold high - nickel iron at a certain price [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: Global economic prospects, tariff policies, and Fed decisions affect the market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely due to lack of demand drive and cost support [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, down 1.26%. Most spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [47]. - **Logical Analysis**: The core contradiction lies in market sentiment and fundamental change expectations. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price may decline during the day; consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 52,260 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. The spot prices were stable and showed a slight increase [52]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [52]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply is in excess in August, but the cost provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and there may be future policy benefits [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips within a certain price range in unilateral trading; conduct positive arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 fell to 87,540 yuan per ton. The spot prices of electric and industrial carbonates increased [55]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in lithium - battery raw material imports, corporate production resumptions, and expansions. The US included lithium in the key enforcement industries [55]. - **Logical Analysis**: The spot market supply is tight, and the supply - demand gap may widen in September, supporting the price. The price may decline due to market sentiment and then rise again [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2511 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 268,850 yuan per ton, up 0.88%. The spot prices adjusted downwards, and the trading was not active [58]. - **Important Information**: Peru and Indonesia released export data of tin [58][59]. - **Logical Analysis**: The LME tin inventory decreased, and the tin ore supply is tight. The industry is in a state of tight balance, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may continue to fluctuate in unilateral trading; observe in option trading [59].

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,490 yuan/ton and closed at 120,330 yuan/ton, a change of -0.37% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 63,677 lots, and the open interest was 55,967 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel is about to switch to the 2510 contract. The night - session of the main contract opened and quickly rose to 121,450 yuan/ton but failed to hold the high, then fell to 120,140 yuan/ton and finally closed at 120,340 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 78,139 lots, and the open interest was 62,507 lots. The day - session continued to be weak, with an opening price of 120,490 yuan, a high of 120,950 yuan, a low of 120,050 yuan, and finally closed at 120,330 yuan, down 450 yuan or 0.37%. The trading volume was 63,677 lots, and the open interest decreased to 55,967 lots, a decrease of 6,540 lots from the night - session. On August 18, the LME nickel price closed at $15,095/ton, down 0.66%, and further fell to $15,110/ton on August 19, with the lowest intraday reaching $15,050, approaching the key support level of $15,000 [2]. - In the nickel ore market, there is a wait - and - see attitude. The price of nickel ore is stable. In the Philippines, the FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore resources in September is mostly $32, and the mine - end price has a slight upward trend. The downstream nickel - iron market is stabilizing, and iron plants are still in losses, so they are not willing to accept high - priced nickel ore raw materials. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in August decreased slightly by $0.03 - $0.04; the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the premium in the second - phase of August to decline due to thin profits [3]. - The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The nickel price was weak during the day, and the procurement rhythm of downstream enterprises did not change significantly. The spot trading of refined nickel was average. The spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel were stable. Driven by the ex - factory price of Jinchuan resources, the premium increased slightly. Russian nickel resources have been replenished recently, and the spot shortage has eased, with the spot premium decreasing slightly. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 2,350 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,841 (-210.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,328 (-1,086) tons [3]. Strategy - In the short term, the nickel price will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - sentiment, but the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 13,025 yuan/ton and closed at 12,885 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 134,082 lots, and the open interest was 133,538 lots [4]. - The night - session of the main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,015 yuan/ton, then rose to 13,070 yuan/ton but failed to hold the high, and finally closed at 13,010 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day's settlement price. The intraday low was 12,970 yuan/ton, indicating that the bulls' tentative rebound was suppressed by the bears. The trading volume was 121,765 lots, and the open interest was 134,400 lots, a slight decrease from the previous day, showing that the long and short funds chose to wait and see after the game. The day - session continued to be weak, with an opening price of 13,000 yuan/ton, a high of 13,025 yuan/ton, a low of 12,855 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 12,885 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 1.07%. The price broke through the key support level of 12,900 yuan, triggering some stop - loss orders. The trading volume was 134,082 lots, and the open interest decreased to 133,538 lots, a decrease of 862 lots from the night - session, showing obvious signs of capital leaving [5]. - In the spot market, affected by the sharp decline of the futures market, the price - holding sentiment of spot traders has weakened. Coupled with the continued weak trading in the previous days and the increasing pressure to sell at the end of the month, the quotes have loosened and declined slightly. However, affected by the market psychology of buying on rising and not on falling, the downstream wait - and - see sentiment has further intensified, and the trading situation has become even lighter. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,075 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market is 13,075 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B are 260 - 410 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 927.0 yuan/nickel point [6]. Strategy - Currently, it is still in the traditional off - season of consumption, with weak demand, and the fundamentals have not changed fundamentally. It is expected that the stainless steel price will fluctuate weakly in the near future. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7].

Group 1 - The Shandong private enterprise top 100 list was released, highlighting the importance of private enterprises in Linyi's economic development [2] - Linyi has over 1.54 million market entities, ranking second in Shandong, with a GDP of 655.6 billion yuan, making it the 21st among Chinese prefecture-level cities [2] - The newly introduced "Phoenix List" features 111 companies, including local leaders and major attracted enterprises, symbolizing Linyi's cultural heritage and entrepreneurial spirit [2] Group 2 - Linyi aims to create a favorable environment for private enterprises by outlining a vision to become a regional economic center with a GDP target of 1 trillion yuan [3] - The city focuses on high-end, intelligent, green, and cluster-based industries, planning 13 key industrial chains to enhance competitiveness [3][4] - Linyi promotes market expansion through trade logistics, hosting over 150 large exhibitions annually to facilitate business connections [4] Group 3 - The city emphasizes technological innovation, supporting R&D and establishing a technology market and innovation funds to foster industrial advancement [4] - Linyi has introduced 25 supportive policies for private enterprises, ensuring that resources and services are readily available to facilitate business operations [5] - The Linyi Business Conference serves as a platform for entrepreneurs to exchange ideas and strengthen community ties, becoming an annual event starting next year [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - This week, the macro - sentiment continued to show an increase in risk appetite. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, the stock market sentiment remained high. In the copper market, downstream orders had support around 7.8, and there were some disturbances in the scrap copper and recycled copper markets. An 8 - month supply - full pattern was expected to lead to a small inventory build - up, but the market might focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was in the seasonal off - season, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. An inventory build - up was expected in August. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory situations [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply - side issues included difficulties in the increase of domestic TC and an increase in imported TC. Demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience. Overseas, there might be a phased supply shortage. Short - term strategy was to wait and see, long - term was a short - position configuration, and there were opportunities for positive spreads in different aspects [3]. - Nickel's supply remained high, demand was weak, and inventories were stable. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel's supply decreased due to some passive production cuts, demand was mainly for rigid needs with some increased restocking, costs were stable, and inventories decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to future policies [9]. - Lead prices fluctuated this week. Supply - side issues included weak scrap production and high recycled lead costs. Demand was not strong enough to cover the supply increase, and lead prices were expected to remain low and volatile next week [10]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply - side saw domestic smelter production cuts and uncertain overseas复产. Demand was weak in some areas and there was a risk of squeezing stocks in the LME. Short - term strategy was to short at high prices, and long - term was to hold at low prices near the cost line [12]. - Industrial silicon's production in Xinjiang was less than expected, while that in Sichuan and Yunnan increased slightly. In the short term, there was a small inventory reduction, and in the long term, it was expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [13]. - Carbonate lithium prices were strong this week due to factors such as inventory reduction and production disturbances. The core contradiction was the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - side disturbances. In the short term, prices had a large upward elasticity and strong downward support [15]. Summaries by Metals Copper - The spot price, premium, inventory, and import profit data of copper from August 13th to 19th were presented, showing changes in these indicators. The macro - sentiment and fundamental conditions of the copper market were analyzed, and the inventory situation was predicted [1]. Aluminum - Data on aluminum prices, inventory, and import profit from August 15th to 19th were provided. Supply, demand, and inventory trends in August were analyzed [2]. Zinc - Zinc price data from August 13th to 19th were given, including spot price, inventory, and import profit. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and strategies for different time horizons were proposed [3]. Nickel - Nickel price data from August 13th to 19th were shown, including spot price, premium, and inventory. Supply, demand, and inventory conditions were analyzed, and investment opportunities were mentioned [6]. Stainless Steel - Price data of different types of stainless steel from August 13th to 19th were provided. Supply, demand, cost, and inventory conditions were analyzed, and policy attention was emphasized [9]. Lead - Lead price data from August 13th to 19th were presented, including spot price, inventory, and import profit. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and price trends were predicted [10]. Tin - Tin price data from August 13th to 19th were given, including import and export profits, inventory, and position. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and investment strategies were proposed [12]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon price data from August 13th to 19th were provided, including basis and warehouse receipts. Production and inventory situations were analyzed, and short - term and long - term trends were predicted [13]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium price data from August 13th to 19th were shown, including spot price, basis, and warehouse receipts. Market factors affecting prices were analyzed, and price trends were predicted [13][15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].