Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for different black commodities: steel (narrow - range consolidation), iron ore (fluctuation), coking coal (fluctuation with a weakening trend), coke (fluctuation with a weakening trend), manganese silicon (fluctuation), and ferrosilicon (fluctuation) [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For steel, the production of rebar decreased slightly, inventory accumulated significantly, and apparent demand declined. With prices hitting the cost - line, cost support strengthened, and short - term rebar futures are expected to move in a narrow range [1] - For iron ore, supply increased while demand decreased due to more blast furnace overhauls and a decline in molten iron production. With a mixed situation of long and short factors, short - term ore prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - For coking coal, production increased as some mines resumed operations, while demand was weak as downstream buyers were cautious. Short - term coking coal futures are expected to fluctuate with a weakening trend [1] - For coke, although the coking association resisted price cuts, the weakening of coking coal prices led to a marginal increase in supply. With high steel billet inventory and weak steel prices, short - term coke futures are expected to fluctuate with a weakening trend [1] - For manganese silicon, production continued to increase, steel procurement prices decreased, and costs decreased slightly. With no strong driving force in the fundamentals, short - term manganese silicon futures are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - For ferrosilicon, production enterprises are in a loss - making state, steel procurement prices decreased, and there is no strong driving force in the short - term fundamentals. Short - term ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and electricity prices [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.35%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices were stable with some increases, and trading volume recovered. This week, rebar production decreased by 1.88 tons week - on - week to 218.68 tons, social inventory increased by 14.89 tons to 468.66 tons, factory inventory increased by 1.72 tons to 171.34 tons, and apparent demand decreased by 2.14 tons to 202.07 tons [1] - **Iron Ore**: The futures contract i2601 closed at 791.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan/ton (1.9%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in trading volume and positions. Port spot prices were strong. Global iron ore shipments increased, while molten iron production decreased by 11.29 tons to 228.84 tons. The profitability of steel mills declined, and port inventory increased while steel mill inventory decreased [1] - **Coking Coal**: The futures contract 2601 closed at 1094.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan/ton (1.04%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Production increased as some mines resumed operations, and downstream demand was weak [1] - **Coke**: The futures contract 2601 closed at 1581.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton (0.78%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Port spot prices decreased. Although the coking association resisted price cuts, supply increased marginally due to the weakening of coking coal prices, and demand was cautious [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: On Thursday, the futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 5730 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. Market prices in most regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Production continued to increase, steel procurement prices decreased significantly, and costs decreased slightly [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: On Thursday, the futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 5496 yuan/ton, down 0.72% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. Market prices in some regions decreased. Production enterprises are in a loss - making state, and steel procurement prices decreased [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of different contracts for various commodities changed. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 82.0, down 10.0; the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coil was 16.0, up 5.0 [4] - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts for various commodities also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 195.0, down 1.0; the basis of the 10 - contract of hot - rolled coil was 21.0, down 9.0 [4] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different commodities in different regions changed. For example, the price of rebar in Shanghai was 3230.0, unchanged; the price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3350.0, up 10.0 [4] - **Profits and Spreads**: The profits and spreads of different commodities also changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was - 22.7, down 6.7; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 196.0, up 3.0 [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][10][15] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various black commodities from 2022 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different inter - period contracts of various black commodities from 2019 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][30][32][33][34][37][38] - **3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different inter - commodity contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [43][45][47] - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: There are charts showing the profits of rebar main contracts from 2020 to 2025, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][52] Group 4: Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, with multiple industry honors [54] - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, with rich experience and many industry honors [54] - Liu Xi is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54] - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [55] Group 5: Company Information - The company is located at 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [56]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market is facing potential supply - demand imbalances, with a bearish outlook if OPEC+ further releases production capacity [1]. - Precious metals are strongly influenced by interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence, and the focus is on the US non - farm payroll data [2]. - Different metals and commodities have varying trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand changes, and inventory adjustments, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each [1][2][3]. - The stock index may shift from a smooth upward trend to a volatile upward trend, and the market style suggests increasing the allocation of technology - growth sectors while also paying attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - The yield curve of treasury bonds is likely to steepen, and attention should be paid to the supply of government bonds and the matching of funds [48]. Summaries by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent 11 contract down 0.76%. US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 2415000 barrels last week. If OPEC+ further releases the remaining 1.657 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts, the supply - demand will be bearish. Hold short positions on the SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and Fujairah fuel oil inventories increased. The third batch of quotas was released later than expected. The supply pressure of LU has eased, and its warehouse receipts decreased slightly. FU lacks obvious drivers but may get geopolitical premium support [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The 9 - month CP remained stable. After the gas off - season, it showed some resilience. Supported by rising import costs and rebounding domestic demand, the price of civil gas increased. The high - basis difference pattern is maintained, and the short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [22]. - **Coal (Coke and Coking Coal)**: The prices of coke and coking coal rebounded during the day. The first round of coke price cuts was partially implemented. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and are under short - term pressure [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight US economic data was mixed. Supported by stable interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence, precious metals are strongly running. Focus on the US non - farm payroll data [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell. The market is highly concerned about the non - farm data. Short - term long positions can still be held, paying attention to the performance at 79500 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate has seasonally increased. It is expected to test the resistance in the 21000 - yuan area in the short term [4]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals are characterized by increasing supply and weak demand. The inventory of Shanghai zinc increased, and it may test the key level of 22000 yuan. The idea of shorting the profit of the futures market remains unchanged [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel weakened, and the market trading picked up. The political unrest in Indonesia has gradually subsided. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel decreased. Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fell. The inventory of LME tin increased slightly. Shanghai tin adjusted to 271000 yuan. Short - term long positions can be flexibly held based on 270000 - 271000 yuan [10]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The import volume remained high, and the port inventory increased significantly. The supply in the inland area increased, and the production enterprises' inventory increased slightly. Although the current situation is weak, the market is expected to be strong due to the expected increase in downstream demand [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The night - trading chemical market stabilized, and pure benzene rebounded to 6000 yuan/ton. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The market may improve in the third quarter, but the positive factors are limited [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The downstream products of propylene face high cost pressure, and the demand for propylene is weak. The supply of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is gradually entering the peak season, but the actual demand recovery is slow [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is running weakly with increasing supply and weak demand. It may fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda is weak. The overall inventory is increasing, and it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation pattern [28]. - **PX and PTA**: PX and PTA are weakly oscillating. The terminal weaving orders are increasing, but the production growth of PX is limited. Attention should be paid to the oil price direction and the PX - polyester balance [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade is uncertain, and the soybean meal may continue to oscillate in the short term. The global soybean oil market is strong, which may drive up the soybean crushing volume. In the long - term, the soybean meal is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are oscillating. The supply of Chinese soybeans in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. Overseas palm oil is in the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, and the domestic demand is in the peak season. Consider buying at low prices [36]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed is under harvesting pressure, and its export is declining. The domestic rapeseed market is expected to be in a tight - balance state, and the futures may stabilize in the short term [37]. - **Corn**: The domestic new - season corn is likely to have a good harvest, but the old - crop carry - over inventory is low. Corn may continue to oscillate strongly before and after the new - grain purchase, and then may run weakly at the bottom [39]. - **Cotton**: US cotton is oscillating narrowly. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to oscillate, with strong support below and limited upward space in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar prices are falling. The domestic sugar sales are fast, and the inventory pressure is light. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apple**: The early - maturing apple prices are high, and the short - term price may continue to rise. However, the supply - side positive factors are limited in the long - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. Others - **Stock Index**: The stock market was weak yesterday, and the stock index futures all fell. The short - term macro situation is uncertain, and the stock index may shift from a smooth upward trend to a volatile upward trend. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The net supply of government bonds in September is expected to be high. The yield curve is likely to steepen [48].

Core Viewpoint - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for August 2025 is reported at 111.7 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, indicating a stable recovery in the commodity market [1][4]. Price Index Summary - The CBPI has shown a continuous month-on-month increase for four consecutive months, signaling a stable recovery in the commodity market [1][4]. - The energy price index has rebounded, reporting 98.7 points with a month-on-month increase of 2% [4][10]. - The black metal price index has continued to rebound, reaching 79.7 points with a month-on-month increase of 2.2% [4][10]. - The non-ferrous metal price index has also risen, reporting 130.4 points with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [4][10]. - The chemical price index has declined, reporting 101.9 points with a month-on-month decrease of 1% and a year-on-year decrease of 11% [10]. - The agricultural product price index has slightly decreased to 97.1 points, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.8% but a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [10]. Commodity Price Changes - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 25 saw price increases while 25 experienced declines in August [8]. - The top three commodities with price increases were coke (20.1%), praseodymium oxide (19.1%), and lithium carbonate (16.6%) [8]. - The top three commodities with price declines were apples (-4.6%), methanol (-3.6%), and urea (-2.8%) [8]. Market Insights - Analysts attribute the rebound in black metal prices to the implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and reducing competition [6][7]. - The rise in energy prices is linked to the peak summer energy demand and the ongoing implementation of "anti-involution" policies [6]. - The increase in non-ferrous metal prices is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a gradual recovery in domestic demand [6]. - The decline in chemical prices is primarily due to seasonal demand weakness and a drop in international oil prices, which has weakened cost support [10]. - The mineral price index has decreased due to high temperatures and heavy rainfall affecting project construction progress and downstream demand [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In September 2025, the direction of monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the current volatility has risen [2]. - The short - term trend of various futures products varies. For example, gold is expected to rise above $3600 but shows an overbought phenomenon, while some products like steel are in a weak decline [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are - 0.67%, - 0.41%, - 1.16%, and - 0.89% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for the next direction [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.8%. Use range - bound operations for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of the TL contract [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold is expected to rise above $3600, but be cautious about chasing long positions. Silver long positions can be held or use unilateral call options to go long [2]. - **Shipping Index Futures**: The EC main contract rebounds and fluctuates. Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage [2]. Black Futures - **Steel Futures**: The apparent demand for rebar declines, and the steel price maintains a weak downward trend. It is recommended to go long on the ratio of steel to ore [2]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The shipment rises to a high level, and the price fluctuates with steel. The range is 750 - 810. Go long on iron ore and short on coke [2]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The spot price fluctuates weakly. Unilateral short positions can be held, and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal for arbitrage [2]. - **Coke Futures**: The seventh round of price increase by mainstream coking plants is implemented, and the eighth round is blocked. Unilateral short positions can be held, and go long on iron ore and short on coke for arbitrage [2]. Non - ferrous Futures - **Copper Futures**: The center of the copper price rises. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000 [2]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The aluminum price shows different trends. Pay attention to the demand in the peak season and the pressure level of 21000 [2]. - **Zinc Futures**: The refined zinc output is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory accumulates. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Nickel Futures**: The dollar strengthens, and the nickel price fluctuates and falls. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The price weakens slightly, with a game between cost support and weak demand. The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13400 [2]. Energy and Chemical Futures - **Crude Oil Futures**: The expected marginal supply increase pressures the oil price. Adopt a unilateral short - bias approach [2]. - **Urea Futures**: High supply pressure and lower Indian bids make the short - term market likely to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PX Futures**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September, with limited short - term drivers. Wait and see and pay attention to the support at 6600 and the oil price [2]. - **PTA Futures**: There is little supply - demand contradiction in September, with limited drivers. Wait and see, pay attention to the support at 4600 and the oil price, and mainly do a rolling reverse spread for TA1 - 5 [2]. - **Other Chemical Futures**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and corresponding trading strategies, such as short - term shock, range - bound operations, etc. [2] Agricultural Futures - **Livestock Futures**: The supply - demand contradiction of live pigs is limited. Pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm. The 11 - contract pays attention to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Grain Futures**: Corn spot is stable, and the futures price fluctuates and adjusts. Short on rallies [2]. - **Oil Futures**: Palm oil maintains a strong shock consolidation and may冲击 $9500 in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Futures**: Each agricultural product has different supply - demand and price trends, with corresponding trading suggestions such as short - position closing, waiting and seeing, etc. [2] Special Commodity Futures - **Glass Futures**: The futures and spot inventories are at a high level, and the industry has a negative feedback. Hold short positions [2]. - **Rubber Futures**: The fundamentals are strong, and the rubber price fluctuates at a high level. Short on rallies if the raw material supply is smooth [2]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The spot price rises slightly, and the futures price fluctuates. The main price range is 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy Futures - **Polysilicon Futures**: The spot price rises, and the polysilicon price fluctuates at a high level. Wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The situation has not improved, and the price is weak. Wait and see [2]. Tin Futures - The supply remains tight, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. Wait and see [3]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the market trends and strategic outlook for the black metal industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-August 2025, the market price for hot-rolled ordinary plate coils (4.75—11.5mm, Q235) is 3482.3 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.16% and a month-on-month increase of 0.52% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years for the same product was 5840.1 yuan per ton in mid-August 2021 [1] Historical Data - The report includes a statistical chart detailing the price fluctuations of hot-rolled ordinary plate coils (4.75—11.5mm, Q235) from 2019 to mid-August 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the market trends and strategic outlook for the black metal industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-August 2025, the market price for angle steel (5) is reported at 3548.5 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.81% and a month-on-month increase of 0.32% [1] - The highest recorded price for angle steel (5) in the past five years was 5613.2 yuan per ton in mid-August 2021 [1] Historical Data - A statistical chart detailing the price fluctuations of angle steel (5) from 2019 to mid-August 2025 is referenced, indicating significant price movements over the years [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the market trends and strategic outlook for the black metal industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-August 2025, the market price for ordinary medium plates (20mm, Q235) is 3541.3 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of 8.95% year-on-year and 0.54% month-on-month [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years for the same period was in mid-August 2021, reaching 5691 yuan per ton [1] Historical Data - A statistical chart detailing the price fluctuations of ordinary medium plates (20mm, Q235) from 2019 to mid-August 2025 is referenced, indicating significant price movements over the years [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each category [1]. - Different sectors show diverse trends. For example, in the stock index futures market, major indices declined, while in the precious metals market, prices continued to rise due to weak US employment data and increased expectations of interest rate cuts [2][7]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Major indices opened higher and then declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16%, and most sectors adjusted. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined, and the basis of the main contracts decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment improved as the stock market fell. Treasury bond futures rose across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally declined. It is recommended to use interval operations and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of the TL contract [5][6]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to rise. Weak US employment data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the decline in US Treasury yields increased the demand for precious metals. Gold reached a record high of $3559.02 per ounce, and silver closed at $41.19 per ounce. It is expected that gold may rise above $3600, and silver may quickly rise above $42, but caution is needed [7][8][9]. Container Shipping on European Routes - The spot price of container shipping continued to decline, and the futures market was expected to fluctuate. The 12 - 10 month - spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [10][11]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The center of copper price has risen due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations. However, the upside space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The main contract is recommended to operate in the range of 79000 - 81000 yuan/ton [12][13][16]. - **Alumina**: The market presents a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan/ton and the actual start of peak - season demand [19][20][21]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc output is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 21500 - 23000 yuan/ton [23][24][26]. - **Tin**: The supply remains tight, and the price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [26][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to adjust in the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectations and import/export conditions [29][30][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to raw material dynamics and the realization of peak - season demand [32][33][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to fluctuate widely after the price center moves down, and it is recommended to wait and see. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [36][37][38]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand for rebar declined, and the steel price maintained a weak downward trend. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and consider going long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [39][40]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment volume increased, and the 45 - port arrival volume rose. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [41][42][43]. - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [44][46]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increase by mainstream coking plants was implemented, but the eighth round was blocked. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coke [47][48][49]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: Sino - US trade has not made substantial progress, and the domestic bullish expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on the dips [50][52]. - **Hogs**: The supply - demand contradiction in the market is limited. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the support levels of 13500 for the 11 - contract and 13800 for the 01 - contract [53][54]. - **Corn**: The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust, and the medium - term trend is weak. It is recommended to go short on the rallies [55][56].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector maintained a weak and volatile trend today, with overall spot trading volume being generally weak and slightly weaker than yesterday [8]. - Affected by the military parade, building materials production decreased, but hot - rolled coil production increased. Steel inventories continued to accumulate, but the accumulation rate slowed down. The apparent demand for building materials and hot - rolled coils increased month - on - month [8]. - There is still support for steel exports recently, and the funds of downstream construction sites continue to improve, leading to a recovery in building materials demand. The current improvement in steel demand, the decline in molten iron output, and strong steel exports support steel prices. However, molten iron production may resume rapidly after the military parade. In September, coal daily consumption is expected to decline, blast furnaces will resume production, and the steel fundamentals will deteriorate. If coal mines resume production rapidly after the military parade, steel prices will still face pressure [8]. - It is expected that in the short term, capital will act first, and steel prices will maintain a weak and volatile trend. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand for steel, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Thread Steel Futures** - Prices of RB05, RB10, and RB01 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton respectively compared to yesterday [3]. - The spreads between different contracts and the changes in the spreads were also presented, such as HC05 - RB05 increasing by 8 yuan/ton [3]. - The disk profits of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 17 yuan/ton, 33 yuan/ton, and 19 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - **Thread Steel Spot** - The prices of Shanghai Zhongtian, Nanjing Xicheng, etc. showed different changes, with Shanghai Zhongtian decreasing by 10 yuan/ton and Shandong Shiheng increasing by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis differences of different contracts and different regions were provided, and the spot profits in different regions also changed, such as the East China thread steel profit decreasing by 14 yuan/ton [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures** - HC05 decreased by 2 yuan/ton, HC10 remained unchanged, and HC01 increased by 1 yuan/ton compared to yesterday [3]. - The spreads between different contracts and the changes in the spreads were also shown, and the disk profits of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 9 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot** - The prices of Tianjin Hegang, Lecong Rigang, etc. had different performances, with Shanghai Angang increasing by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis differences of different contracts and different regions were given, and the spot profits in different regions changed, such as the Tianjin hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 3 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Related Prices** - The price of Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel was 3200 yuan (- 10), Beijing Jingye was 3170 yuan (- 10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3360 yuan (+ 10), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan (unchanged) [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Maintain a weak and volatile trend [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the short position of the coil - to - thread spread and enter the 1 - 5 positive spread [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Important Information** - As of September 2, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.01%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 51.39%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points [9]. - The US ISM manufacturing index in August was 48.7, lower than the expected 49 and the previous value of 48, and it has been below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months [9]. 3.3 Related Attachments A series of charts were provided, including the basis differences of different contracts of thread steel and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai area, the spreads between different contracts, the disk profits of different contracts, the cash profits in different regions, and the price differences between different products, etc. [15][17][21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: Strong bullish trend, with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Not specified in the given content - Iron ore: Strong bullish trend, with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Coke: Strong bullish trend, with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Coking coal: Strong bullish trend, with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Silicomanganese: Bullish, with a driving force for upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - Ferrosilicon: Strong bullish trend, with appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Views - The market is gradually returning to fundamentals. Under the negative feedback expectation, the price of steel products is under pressure, and the decline may slow down after continuous adjustment. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The prices of coke and coking coal are affected by policy expectations and have high short - term volatility, and are under short - term pressure. The prices of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are relatively stable, with good demand and certain support [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market is mainly in a volatile state. The apparent demand for thread has recovered month - on - month, production has increased, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The demand and production of hot - rolled coils have slightly declined, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient, and the molten iron production has declined from a high level. The negative feedback expectation has increased. The overall domestic demand is still weak, while exports are expected to remain high [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore has increased significantly month - on - month, reaching a new high for the year. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded, and the port inventory is oscillating without pressure to accumulate. The molten iron production is expected to decline significantly in the short term. The macro - positive factors have been partially realized, and the speculative sentiment is expected to remain. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - The coke price has fluctuated widely. The first round of price cuts in coking has been partially implemented, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The overall inventory has slightly decreased, and the purchasing willingness of traders has declined. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is affected by policy expectations and has high short - term volatility, being under short - term pressure [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price has fluctuated widely. The production of coking coal mines has slightly increased, the spot auction transactions have weakened, and the terminal inventory has slightly decreased. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory has increased. The price is affected by policy expectations and has high short - term volatility, being under short - term pressure [5] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price has been volatile. The molten iron production remains at a high level. The weekly production has continued to increase, and the inventory has not accumulated. The manganese ore price has slightly decreased this week, but the price has limited downside space due to pre - stocking by manufacturers. In the long - term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price has been volatile. The molten iron production has slightly decreased but remains above 240. The export demand is about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month - on - month. The supply has continued to increase significantly, the market demand is good, and the inventory has slightly decreased [7]