Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a moderate increase in the Chinese stock market in 2026, with key challenges including corporate earnings quality, deflationary pressures, and global macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Market Projections - The target levels for major indices by December 2026 are set at 27,500 for the Hang Seng Index, 9,700 for the State-Owned Enterprises Index, and 4,840 for the CSI 300 Index, indicating potential upside of approximately 4%, 4%, and 5% respectively from the closing levels on November 17 [1]. - The CSI 300 Index has risen about 17% year-to-date, suggesting a second consecutive year of growth, driven by optimistic investor sentiment towards China's technological development [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Morgan Stanley emphasizes the importance of stock selection, recommending an overweight position in high-quality internet and technology leaders while reducing exposure to real estate, consumer staples, and energy sectors [3].

Market Review - The equity market experienced a decline last week, with the STAR 50 index dropping the most at 3.85%. Other indices such as the ChiNext index fell by 3.01%, and the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.08% [4][5] - In the bond market, the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 0.02 basis points to 1.814%, while the 1-year yield increased from 1.405% to 1.410% [8][12] - The fund market saw a decline in equity funds by 0.71%, while secondary bond fund indices showed slight increases [15] Equity Product Allocation Strategy Event-Driven Strategy - The commissioning of China's first electromagnetic aircraft carrier presents investment opportunities in sectors such as aerospace, high-end equipment, and defense [17] - The State Council's meeting emphasized enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, suggesting potential in the consumer sector [18] - Berkshire Hathaway's initial investment in Alphabet, valued at $4.3 billion, highlights the focus on AI technology and presents opportunities in related funds [19] Asset Allocation Strategy - The strategy suggests a balanced core with a barbell approach, focusing on dividend and technology sectors [20] - The dividend sector is seen as valuable due to low interest rates and government support for regular dividends [21] - The technology sector is highlighted for its growth potential driven by national policy support and global trends in AI [21][22] Stable Product Allocation Strategy Market Analysis - The central bank's net injection of 626.2 billion yuan indicates a tightening of the funding environment [26] - The retail sales total for October showed a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, while industrial output increased by 4.9% [26] - Convertible bonds are noted for their volatility risks, with recent price movements indicating a need for caution [26] Key Focus Products - Short-term bond funds are recommended, with an emphasis on adjusting yield expectations [29] - Funds such as Nord Short Bond A and Guotai Lianan Medium and Short Bond A are highlighted for their stable performance [31]

Group 1: Overseas Macro Strategy - The end of the US government shutdown and hawkish signals from some Fed officials led to a slight increase in US Treasury yields, while gold initially rose before falling, and the US dollar slightly retreated [2] - The US stock market is expected to transition from a phase driven by both earnings and valuation to one primarily driven by corporate earnings growth, amidst increased market volatility [2] - Over 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations in the third quarter, providing market support despite high valuations [2] - The narrative surrounding AI's potential to drive a fourth industrial revolution is yet to be validated, suggesting a need for cautious adjustment of annual return expectations to single-digit levels [2] - A diversified investment strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors such as industrials, utilities, energy, and healthcare, in addition to technology stocks [2] Group 2: US Treasury Bonds - Short-term market focus is on upcoming US economic data, although the validity of data during the government shutdown is limited [3] - Medium to long-term outlook suggests a downward shift in the central tendency of Treasury yields, with a continuation of a bull steepening yield curve [3] - Investors are advised to maintain positions in 2-5 year Treasury bonds, with long-term bonds recommended for purchase when the 10-year yield exceeds 4.2% [3] Group 3: Currency and Gold - The US dollar lacks fundamental support to stabilize above the 100 mark, with expectations of downward pressure due to a loose trading environment [3] - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate slightly, influenced by the Fed's rate cut cycle and easing US-China trade tensions [3] - Gold is in a short-term adjustment phase but remains bullish in the long term, with expectations of continued Fed rate cuts and ongoing central bank gold purchases [4] Group 4: Domestic Macro Strategy - Domestic economic pressures are increasing, with significant declines in real estate transaction volumes and prices, particularly in first-tier cities [6] - Financial growth has slowed, with a decrease in both public and private financing demand, and a drop in the growth rate of RMB loans to 6.5% [6] - Export dynamics remain stable, with a 6.3% year-on-year increase in average cargo throughput in October, indicating resilience in certain export categories [7] - Recent government meetings have focused on enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, signaling a shift towards a more balanced policy approach [7] Group 5: Monetary Policy and Bonds - The central bank's monetary policy report indicates a focus on optimizing structural tools and emphasizing price-based regulation over quantity targets [8] - The bond market is expected to maintain a low-volatility, oscillating trend, with the 10-year Treasury yield stabilizing around 1.8% [9] - The outlook for the bond market suggests a steep yield curve, with a central tendency around 1.8% and potential fluctuations between 1.6% and 1.9% [10] Group 6: A-shares and Hong Kong Market - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3990 points, influenced by weak economic data and reduced Fed rate cut expectations [10] - The Hong Kong market showed a 1.26% increase in the Hang Seng Index, with expectations of continued upward movement post-adjustment [11] - The overall outlook for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks remains cautiously optimistic, with anticipated liquidity improvements and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [11]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,384.28, down by 188.18 points or 0.71% [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index (HSTECH) fell to 5,756.88, decreasing by 55.92 points or 0.96% [2] - The Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSBIO) dropped by 321.53 points, closing at 15,959.29, a decline of 1.97% [2] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) decreased by 69.56 points to 9,328.40, down 0.74% [2] - The Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) fell by 27.69 points, closing at 4,052.36, a decrease of 0.68% [2] Sector Performance - Electric equipment, pharmaceutical biotechnology, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and banking sectors showed weak performance [2] - Software services, consumer goods, coal, and real estate sectors performed strongly [2] Company Performance - Major tech stocks declined, with Lenovo Group and Trip.com Group both dropping over 3% [2] - Baidu Group and Li Auto fell by more than 2% [2] - Bilibili, Tongcheng Travel, and JD Group saw declines exceeding 1% [2] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) and Tencent Holdings experienced slight decreases [2] Individual Stock Movements - Horizon Robotics (7.910) decreased by 4.12% [3] - Lenovo Group (10.090) fell by 3.90% [3] - Trip.com Group (555.500) dropped by 3.56% [3] - Baidu Group (113.600) decreased by 2.99% [3] - Xpeng Motors (96.000) fell by 2.74% [3] - Sunny Optical Technology (67.300) decreased by 2.53% [3] - Li Auto (75.100) saw a decline of 2.74% [4] - Bilibili (205.000) dropped by 1.91% [4] - BYD Electronics (34.000) decreased by 1.79% [4] - Tongcheng Travel (22.240) fell by 1.59% [4] - Midea Group (87.550) decreased by 1.46% [4] - JD Group (115.400) saw a decline of 1.28% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy experienced a year-on-year decline of 1.8% in Q3, marking the first negative growth in six quarters, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.4%, which, although better than the market expectation of a 2.5% drop, indicates increasing pressure on monetary and fiscal policies [2] Economic Performance - External demand turned negative, contributing -0.2 percentage points to GDP, a shift from the previous quarter's positive contribution of 0.2 percentage points [2] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline, with a 24.2% year-on-year drop in September for automotive exports, which is the largest segment of Japan's exports to the U.S. [2] - Overall exports decreased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter amid weak global demand [2] Domestic Demand - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of GDP, only increased by 0.1%, a slowdown from 0.4% in the previous quarter, primarily due to high food prices suppressing household spending [2] - Business equipment investment grew by 1.0%, exceeding market expectations and serving as one of the few bright spots in the economy [2] - Residential investment declined significantly due to stricter environmental standards for new housing [2] Inflation and Government Response - The GDP deflator index rose by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating persistent underlying inflation [2] - The Japanese government plans to implement an economic stimulus package exceeding 17 trillion yen this week [2] - The Bank of Japan maintained interest rates at 0.5% last month, indicating a potential for further tightening if economic conditions align with expectations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market is in a slow - bull trend. Although the US technology stocks are adjusting, it is not a reversal. In China, the economic data in October weakened, but the policy expectation will turn positive before the Politburo meeting in December, and the slow - bull trend of the market will continue [8][9]. - For copper, short - term price increases are limited, but in the long term, it is advisable to buy on dips. The weakening of raw material supply tension, the increase in recycled copper supply, and the high domestic refined copper production are the current situations. However, long - term consumption has strong growth logic [10]. - In the pig market, the de - stocking drive is emerging, and the reverse - spread strategy has entered the right - hand side. The demand increment from slaughter pre - stocking is lower than expected, and there may be a social - end sell - off in the second half of the month, leading to a potential acceleration of the decline in spot prices [12]. - Regarding lithium carbonate, the shipment volume at the mine end is increasing, and there is a risk of a month - on - month weakening in demand, with limited upside potential. The demand in the energy storage sector remains strong, but there is a slight month - on - month decline, and the power demand will enter a seasonal off - season [14][15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high on Friday last week but declined in the late session. The adjustment of US technology stocks during the earnings season has dragged down the AI sector, and the market style has shifted to value sectors such as banks and consumption [8]. - Although the capital expenditure of US technology giants is large, it is still far from the level of the 2000 dot - com bubble. Some technology giants' earnings have exceeded expectations, and the overseas adjustment is not a reversal [9]. - In China, the economic data in October continued to weaken. Before the Politburo meeting in December, the market's policy expectations will turn positive, and the slow - bull trend of the market will continue [9]. 3.2 Copper - Macroscopically, the US government shutdown has ended, but the hawkish statements of Fed officials have weakened the expectation of interest rate cuts. In the long run, preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed may lead to a decline in the US dollar and support prices [10]. - Fundamentally, the logic of raw material supply tension is continuously weakening, the supply of recycled copper has increased marginally, and the processing fee for crude copper has started to rise. Domestic refined copper production remains high [10]. - The current demand has weakened, but the long - term logic is still strong. High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand and terminal consumption, but domestic active fiscal policies and the long - term demand from AI data centers and power grid upgrades will drive copper consumption [10]. 3.3 Pig - Since November, the market has been trading on the expectation of increased demand due to the temperature drop in the second half of the month, but the demand increment from slaughter pre - stocking is lower than expected, and the time for concentrated bacon - curing to boost demand is around the Winter Solstice [12]. - From the supply side, the group sales in the middle of the month have been poor for many consecutive days, the slaughter progress is slow, and a passive pressure - bar situation has formed. The weight of the存栏 has increased significantly due to the large - scale entry of secondary fattening in October [12]. - Although farmers have a sentiment of reluctant to sell, the price difference between fat and lean pigs has shown a reverse - seasonal weakening trend, and the loss from pressure - bar has increased. There may be a social - end sell - off in the second half of the month, and the spot price may accelerate its decline [12]. 3.4 Lithium Carbonate - On the demand side, the energy storage demand remains strong, but the winning bid data from October to November shows a slight month - on - month decline. The growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in October has slowed down, and December will enter a traditional seasonal off - season [14]. - On the supply side, since October 27, the shipment volume of Australian mines has been above the annual average for three consecutive weeks. Australian mining companies have increased supply by improving recycling efficiency, and this incremental supply is expected to be gradually released by the end of this year or in the first quarter of next year [15]. - In the short term, the de - stocking trend will continue, but with the increase in supply and the entry of power demand into the seasonal off - season, the upside space is expected to be limited [15].

Core Insights - Japan's economy contracted in Q3 due to weak domestic demand and U.S. tariffs, but the contraction was less severe than expected, primarily supported by stable corporate capital expenditure [1][6] - The GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 1.8%, better than the anticipated 2.5% decline, contrasting with a 1.6% growth in Q2 [1] - The report highlights the fragility of Japan's economic recovery and complicates the Bank of Japan's policy path [1] Economic Performance - Q3 GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, outperforming the expected decline of 0.6%, while the previous quarter saw a growth of 0.5% [1] - Private consumption, accounting for about half of the economy, stagnated, and net exports became a drag on growth due to global economic slowdown and trade tensions [1][6] Capital Expenditure - Despite overall economic headwinds, corporate investment showed resilience, with capital expenditure increasing by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the market consensus of 0.3% [6] - Strong corporate investment, particularly in local infrastructure, helped mitigate the impact of weak performance in other economic areas [6] Policy Implications - The economic report presents challenges for policymakers, with persistent inflation pressures indicated by a 2.8% year-on-year increase in the GDP deflator [7] - The contraction in the economy limits the Bank of Japan's ability to tighten monetary policy, leading to reduced expectations for short-term interest rate hikes [7] - Attention is shifting towards potential fiscal stimulus measures from the new Prime Minister, with reports suggesting a possible 17 trillion yen economic revitalization plan [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations this week, with the consumer and banking sectors showing slight strength, while the lithium battery and industrial metals sectors performed well [6] - The technology sector showed a mixed adjustment, with humanoid robots and AI core listed companies experiencing significant cumulative gains this year, contributing to recent adjustments in these sectors [7] Sector Analysis - The humanoid robot sector faced downward pressure due to uncertainties regarding large-scale production timelines, leading to investor concerns about the industry's future [7] - The AI sector saw a general weakening in both application and hardware aspects, with fears of an AI industry bubble arising from the contrasting performance of upstream and downstream companies in the US market [7] - Despite the overall weakness, some leading AI companies maintained strong stock performance due to continuous improvements in large model capabilities and optimistic industry prospects [7] Battery Sector Insights - The battery sector saw a strong increase this week, with lithium mines, lithium batteries, and solid-state battery concepts leading in gains [8] - The surge in overseas energy storage demand, driven by expectations of increased electricity consumption from data centers, contributed to the sector's strength [8] - Recent price increases in lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte additives were noted, with prices doubling since mid-October, attributed to supply-demand mismatches [8] Economic Indicators - The October CPI data turned positive, boosting market confidence, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 4034.08 points, supported by stable performance in consumer stocks, banks, and non-ferrous metals [9] - However, the market adjusted significantly on Friday due to weakness in technology stocks, indicating that the A-share market is expected to maintain overall fluctuations with structural hotspots in the future [9]

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets have entered a correction phase, with major indices in the US and Europe declining, leading to a cautious sentiment in emerging markets. This backdrop has resulted in a similar adjustment in the A-share market, where the Shanghai Composite Index briefly reached a ten-year high before falling back below the 4000-point mark, indicating a shift to a "high-level fluctuation and weakening" phase [1]. Market Structure on Friday - The market reached a high of approximately 4030 points, marking a ten-year peak, but subsequently fell back, closing below 4000 points. The daily candlestick formed a "small bearish line with a long upper shadow," indicating significant selling pressure in the 4000-4030 range and a weakening bullish sentiment [2]. - Approximately 3300 stocks declined, while fewer than 2000 stocks rose, highlighting a structural market condition where the index's new high corresponds with a majority of stocks declining [3]. - Around 89 stocks hit the daily limit up, indicating that while there are still hotspots, the overall profit-making effect is limited to a few strong themes and leading stocks [4]. - Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, forestry, certain electrical appliances, and coking coal showed structural strength, while semiconductors and some consumer sectors experienced notable pullbacks, reflecting rapid sector rotation and a lack of solid main lines [5][6]. Volume and Moving Averages - Trading volume fell below 2 trillion, significantly lower than the volume levels observed when the index previously broke through 4000 points [7]. - The high-level volume contraction indicates insufficient willingness for new capital to enter the market, with more existing funds engaged in trading, leading to a cooling of short-term bullish expectations [8]. - The index closed below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, signaling a clear short-term trend weakening. The breach of these averages typically indicates a transition from a strong upward trend to a phase of adjustment or consolidation [11]. Potential Market Scenarios for Monday - Two probable scenarios for Monday's market performance are outlined: 1. **Scenario One**: A low open followed by a rebound, potentially closing with a small bullish line if blue-chip stocks stabilize and high-growth sectors see capital inflow [13][14]. 2. **Scenario Two**: A low open followed by continued weak fluctuations, possibly closing with a small bearish line if previous strong sectors lack sustained capital support [16][18]. Defensive Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a defensive posture, controlling overall positions to around 50% or lower, especially as the index fluctuates around the 4000-point mark [20]. - Focus on reducing exposure to high-flying stocks that have moved far from their moving averages, while considering defensive sectors with solid fundamentals and stable cash flows [22]. - The current high-level fluctuation phase suggests avoiding aggressive trading and instead waiting for clearer market direction before increasing positions [23].

宏观：香港路演见闻 20251116 摘要 市场预期 2026 年货币政策延续宽松，尽管美联储近期释放鹰派信号， 但多数投资者仍预计 12 月降息，主要基于政府停摆导致的经济下行压 力。 市场对特朗普贸易政策存在分歧，关税政策不确定性大，中期选举前可 能采取增量宽财政措施以拉拢选票。 2025 年和 2026 年净财政宽松力度基本为零，需增量财政政策才能实 现真正宽松，如每个贫困家庭发放 2000 美元，但实施存在不确定性。 2026 年美国经济总体乐观，但依赖财政和货币双宽松，若缺乏进一步 宽松措施，居民部门信贷压力将增加，主要体现在车贷、银行卡和信贷 等方面。 市场继续看好黄金和 AI，尽管存在泡沫化担忧，但仍有上涨潜力。同时， 由于对双宽松状态的预期，对铜等大宗商品也持乐观态度。 近期市场对美联储降息预期出现变化，12 月降息预期从 70%降至 43%，但 2026 年 12 月的隐含降息预期仍维持在 3.3 附近，宽松货币 政策趋势未变。 AI 技术的应用带来 K 型影响，主要由富人消费驱动，高收入群体受益， 低收入群体面临就业压力，服务业外包经济体贸易账可能受冲击。 Q&A 近期权益市场风格切换的原 ...