Group 1 - Gold prices surged after finding support at 3351, breaking last week's high of 3378 and reaching a peak of 3386, before fluctuating between 3380 and 3367 [3] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming US non-farm payroll report, which is expected to significantly impact interest rate expectations [3] - Current support levels are identified at 3365-3364, while resistance is noted at 3383-3386, with trading strategies suggested for both long and short positions [3] Group 2 - The commentary emphasizes the importance of self-discipline and facing one's mistakes as fundamental to success in trading [3] - The analysis covers a comprehensive understanding of the global economic system and highlights the need for investors to grasp key financial fundamentals [3] - The content encourages investors to pay attention to daily market interpretations of commodities such as gold, silver, and oil [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - High premiums are usually driven by factors such as supply - demand mismatches, quota restrictions, exchange - rate expectations, or policy limitations. Since Trump took office, his changing tariff policies have overshadowed other factors. After China's exchange - rate reform and policy transition, the large - scale fluctuations in the premiums of non - ferrous sector commodities caused by exchange - rate and "financing copper" issues may decrease in the future. Current premium fluctuations are mainly due to geopolitical uncertainties and domestic - foreign supply - demand mismatches. Trump's changing policies may keep the premiums of New York market commodities high, which is not conducive to the outflow of Comex market inventory, and the short - term pressure on copper prices from the return of Comex copper inventory may not occur immediately [5]. - For gold, due to its strategic importance and role in the financial market, the state may introduce policies on gold purchases or quotas in the future, which may cause fluctuations in the domestic - foreign gold premium and make cross - market arbitrage difficult [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Background - Since Trump took office, his changing tariff policies have led to continuous premiums in the prices of non - ferrous metals and precious metals in the New York market. Although the expected 50% tariff on refined copper did not materialize, the Comex copper premium dropped significantly. The abnormal changes in the domestic - foreign premium have occurred frequently in the past, and this report summarizes the background and market sentiment of previous abnormal domestic premiums and provides views on future premium fluctuations [12]. Past 20 - year Premium Abnormalities Review Sub - prime Crisis Forced Adjustment of China's Gold Import Quota Policy - In 2008, the international gold price first reached a peak of $1000 per ounce in March and then dropped to $680 in October due to the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. With the implementation of the Fed's quantitative easing policy, the gold price rebounded to over $1200 in 2009. In China, due to inflation and limited investment channels, the demand for physical gold soared. The central bank increased its gold reserves from 600 tons to 1054 tons, strengthening market bullish expectations. However, due to strict import quota management, only a few state - owned commercial banks could import gold, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance and a significant difference between the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the London market. In the first half of 2009, the domestic market changed from a discount to a premium, and the premium returned to a reasonable range in the second half of the year after the import quota was gradually relaxed [13][14]. International Gold Price Fluctuations from 2011 to 2013 Led to a Rise in Domestic Premium - From 2011 to 2013, the international gold price reached a high in 2011 and then dropped sharply in 2013, and the domestic gold price premium increased abnormally. In August 2011, due to the European and American debt crises and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, the international gold price soared, while the domestic supply could not meet the sudden increase in demand due to quota management, capital account restrictions, and exchange - rate expectations, resulting in a premium of about 20 - 30 yuan per gram. In early 2012, during the Chinese New Year gold consumption season, the domestic supply - demand contradiction was prominent, and the premium also reached over 20 yuan per gram. In 2013, the international gold price dropped sharply due to the Cyprus debt crisis and the Fed's plan to reduce bond purchases. Chinese consumers launched a gold - buying spree, and the central bank tightened the import channels, resulting in a premium of over 30 yuan per gram at the peak [24][25][26]. The "Financing Copper" Effect Pushed up the Domestic Copper Premium around the 8.11 Exchange - rate Reform - Around the 8.11 exchange - rate reform in 2015, the domestic copper premium increased significantly. The premium logic of the copper market is more complex, involving the dual game of "financing demand" and "depreciation arbitrage". The expectation of RMB depreciation led enterprises to conduct cross - border arbitrage through copper trade, causing the bonded - area copper inventory to exceed 600,000 tons and the domestic copper price to have a premium of up to 1,700 yuan per ton compared with the LME price. In early 2016, the supply - side reform led to expectations of copper smelter production cuts, further expanding the premium. The regulatory authorities took measures in the third quarter of 2016 to reduce the price difference, and the domestic premium peak in 2016 was about 2,000 yuan per ton [36]. The COVID - 19 Pandemic Caused Significant Premiums in Domestic Copper and Silver - In 2020, due to the different economic recovery paces between China and the rest of the world during the COVID - 19 pandemic, there were significant price premiums in the domestic silver and copper markets. The domestic silver price premium exceeded 200 yuan per kilogram in the second quarter, and the copper price premium reached 1,500 yuan per ton in May. The silver premium was driven by the booming photovoltaic industry, blocked import channels, and increased investment demand. The copper premium was due to China's infrastructure stimulus plan, a sharp decrease in scrap copper imports, and exchange - rate - related hedging behavior. The regulatory authorities took measures such as increasing import quotas and releasing state - reserve copper, and by the fourth quarter of 2020, the premiums returned to normal levels [41][42][43]. The Adjustment of the Gold Import Quota Led to a Rise in the Domestic Premium from 2023 to 2024 - From 2023 to 2024, the domestic - foreign gold price difference was inverted due to the central bank's quota control on gold imports. Geopolitical risks and the downturn in the domestic real estate market increased investors' demand for gold. Some enterprises and investors found ways to bypass the quota policy through financial innovation, which weakened the policy's effectiveness and increased the complexity and volatility of the domestic gold pricing system. As the bank's gold import quota was gradually relaxed, the premium gradually returned [47]. Summary - High premiums are usually driven by factors such as supply - demand mismatches, quota restrictions, exchange - rate expectations, or policy limitations. After Trump took office, his tariff policies overshadowed other factors. After China's exchange - rate reform and policy transition, the large - scale fluctuations in the premiums of non - ferrous sector commodities caused by exchange - rate and "financing copper" issues may decrease in the future. Current premium fluctuations are mainly due to geopolitical uncertainties and domestic - foreign supply - demand mismatches. Trump's changing policies may keep the premiums of New York market commodities high, which is not conducive to the outflow of Comex market inventory, and the short - term pressure on copper prices from the return of Comex copper inventory may not occur immediately. For gold, the state may introduce policies on gold purchases or quotas in the future, which may cause fluctuations in the domestic - foreign gold premium and make cross - market arbitrage difficult [51].

Group 1 - The core event involves President Trump signing a document to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook, marking a significant challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - This unprecedented action is viewed as a potential financial risk signal, possibly leading to legal disputes and uncertainty in central bank policy decisions and market expectations [1] - The immediate market reaction saw the US dollar index drop nearly 30 points, reflecting concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and increasing expectations for future interest rate cuts [3] Group 2 - Gold prices surged over $20 shortly after the news, demonstrating its role as a traditional safe-haven asset amid market uncertainty [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold shows a strong upward trend in the long term, while short-term charts suggest a consolidation phase, advising traders to be cautious [3] - Silver also displays positive technical indicators, with key resistance at $38.80-$39.00 and support around $37.50, suggesting potential for upward movement if resistance is broken [3][4] Group 3 - The event has caused immediate and noticeable impacts on financial markets, leading to structural differentiation where the dollar is under pressure while precious metals like gold and silver rise due to safe-haven demand [4] - Investors are advised to consider both the political risks and technical analysis when setting trading strategies, focusing on key support and resistance levels [4] - The market is currently processing the uncertainties brought by this rare event, emphasizing the need for caution and attention to technical signals and market sentiment changes [4]

摘要周二（8月26日），周一，随着市场对降息前景的乐观情绪有所平息，美元指数反弹，重回98关口 上方，最终收涨0.71%，报98.394。受制于美元走强，现货黄金在接近15美元的狭窄区间内横盘震荡， 最终收跌0.19%，收报3365.8美元/盎司；现货白银回落幅度更大，最终收跌0.72%，报38.57美元/盎司。 【行情回顾】 尤为引人关注的是，库克作为美联储史上首位非裔女性理事，系由前总统拜登委任，其任期原本延续至 2038年。若她被迫离任，特朗普将获得提名新成员的机会，有望在七人理事会中占据多数席位，从而对 利率决策产生深远影响。当前市场普遍预测，美联储在9月会议上降息的可能性超过80%，而鲍威尔在 全球央行年会上展现出的鸽派立场更是加剧了这一预期，显示出在外部政治施压与内部决策考量的双重 作用下，美联储或将于9月重启降息周期，为黄金价格构筑有力支撑。 美国总统特朗普签署文件，宣布解除美联储理事库克的职务且立即生效。消息公布后，美元指数短线急 跌，现货黄金应声拉升逾20美元，抹去日内跌幅。 展望后市，9月贵金属预计延续震荡偏强走势，核心驱动来自美联储降息预期与政治风险溢价。短期若 美联储9月释放明确宽松信 ...

Core Insights - The total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reached 958.49 tons as of August 25, 2025, an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous trading day [6] - Spot gold prices experienced a mild decline, with a low of $3359.51 per ounce and a closing price of $3365.60 per ounce, down $5.91 or 0.18% [6] - Following Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, which paved the way for a potential rate cut in September, gold prices surged significantly, testing the $3380 per ounce level [6] Market Dynamics - The market currently anticipates an 88% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, up from 75% before Powell's remarks [6] - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in gold prices may be temporary, as the market reassesses the Fed's dovish stance, making it difficult for the dollar to maintain its rebound [6] - Upcoming economic data, particularly the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, is expected to show core inflation rising to 2.9%, the highest level since the end of 2023, which could further support aggressive rate cut expectations [6] Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, gold has solid support around $3350, with Powell's dovish hints creating a clear wave low [7] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, indicating strong buying interest despite a slight pullback [7] - Key resistance levels for gold are at $3380, $3400, $3430, and the historical high of $3500, while support levels are at $3350, $3315 (100-day moving average), and $3285 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upward trend from January to June) [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market presents a complex situation with various commodities showing different trends. Some commodities are expected to be volatile, while others have specific directional expectations based on supply - demand, policy, and seasonal factors. For example, some commodities are recommended for long - term investment opportunities, while others suggest short - term trading strategies or caution [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Since the second half of the year, global crude oil inventories have decreased by 2%, refined oil inventories have increased by 2.9%, and overall petroleum inventories have slightly decreased by 0.2%. The expected supply - demand surplus in Q3 was not confirmed, and the short - term unilateral price is considered bullish due to strong seasonal demand and increased expectations of a September interest rate cut [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and China's bonded marine fuel bunker demand decreased by 1% year - on - year. However, domestic refinery production of marine fuel was also low, with supply decreasing by 19% year - on - year. Inventories in Singapore and Fujairah decreased, and the fundamentals are relatively bullish [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market rebounded with the support of import demand. The domestic arrival volume continued to increase, and the short - term high chemical demand can be maintained. The spot market has released negative pressure, and the market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [23] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: The output of coking coal mines decreased, and the spot auction transactions weakened. The total inventory increased, and the production - end inventory is likely to increase in the short term. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and has high short - term volatility with limited downside space [17] - **Coking Coal**: The price is oscillating upward. Some coking plants in certain regions have expectations of production restrictions. The overall inventory has slightly increased, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy with high short - term volatility and limited downside space [16] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals oscillated. The market has priced in a September interest rate cut, but there are differences in the statements of Fed officials. International gold and silver are in an oscillatory trend, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, Shanghai copper adjusted with a negative line. The short - term price was pushed above 79,500 by factors such as the probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed. The US included copper in the 2025 critical minerals list. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 80,000 [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The downstream start - up rate has seasonally recovered, and the inventory is likely to remain low this year. The short - term trend is oscillatory, with resistance in the 20,800 - 21,000 yuan area [5] - **Zinc**: The expectation of a September interest rate cut by the US increased, and the macro sentiment improved. Fundamentally, supply increased while demand was weak. The SMM zinc social inventory increased to 138,500 tons. The medium - term trend is expected to face resistance on rebounds [8] - **Lead**: The refinery's production reduction and vehicle transportation restrictions in some regions led to a decrease in the SMM lead social inventory to 68,300 tons, supporting the price rebound. The consumption expectation in September is mixed, and the price is expected to be oscillatory [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly, and the market trading was dull. The pure nickel inventory decreased to 41,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory remained at 934,000 tons. Technically, the price has a rebound intention, but the fundamentals are weak, and short - selling opportunities should be sought [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin oscillated below 270,000. Overseas tin has low - inventory support, and the domestic supply - demand is weak. The short - term price has the potential to rise, and long - positions can be held based on the MA60 moving average [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of South32's Australian mines. The demand from molten iron remains high, and the weekly output of silicon - manganese increased. The price has limited downside space [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated. The molten iron output decreased slightly but remained above 240. The supply increased significantly, and the price has limited downside space after a significant decline [19] Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price of carbonate lithium corrected, and the market trading volume decreased. The total market inventory decreased slightly to 142,000 tons. The medium - term production decreased by 5% week - on - week. The market is focused on the expectation after the shutdown of downstream plants, and a bullish but risk - controlled strategy is recommended [11] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The price of N - type polysilicon increased to 49,000 yuan/ton. The market is expected to be range - bound, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures continued to oscillate. The expectation of polysilicon capacity governance policies has stabilized, and the impact on overall supply is limited. The market is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production schedule next month [13] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Driven by real - estate policies, PVC is relatively strong. The supply is high, and the demand is insufficient. The social inventory has continued to increase since July. The export pressure has increased. The price is expected to be range - bound. Caustic soda is oscillating strongly, and the price increase is expected to be limited due to long - term supply pressure [29] - **Methanol**: The methanol market is oscillating at a low level. The supply in the inland has increased, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory rapidly. Attention should be paid to the macro - atmosphere and the possibility of restarting coastal MTO plants [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The price of pure benzene fluctuated narrowly at night. The port inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic demand is weak. The supply - demand is in a weak balance. The supply - demand is expected to improve in Q3 but may be under pressure in Q4 [26] - **Styrene**: The cost - end support has improved slightly, but there is no upward impetus. The supply is high, and the demand is stable with little change. The inventory accumulation expectation remains [27] - **Polypropylene & Polyethylene & Propylene**: The inventory pressure of propylene producers is not large, but the downstream demand has weakened. The domestic supply of polyethylene has increased, and the demand for PO film is entering the peak season, but the short - term downstream procurement intention is low. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term downstream new orders are not expected to improve significantly [28] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Affected by biodiesel policies globally, the demand for soybean crushing may increase. The supply of soybeans in Q4 is relatively sufficient, but there may be a supply gap in Q1 next year. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas may affect new - season crops. The market is cautiously bullish on soybean meal in the medium - to - long - term [35] - **Vegetable Oils**: - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US soybean oil has strengthened. The Malaysian palm oil export is strong, and the production growth is limited. The market is expected to be in a long - term bullish trend, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [36] - **Rapeseed Oil & Rapeseed Meal**: The crushing rate of rapeseed is low due to low inventory. The supply of new - season rapeseed is affected by weather in Canada and Australia. The market is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term and may be supported by import uncertainty in the medium - term [37] - **Corn**: The China Grain Reserves Corporation continued to auction imported corn this week. The supply in Shandong is stable, and the inventory in ports and deep - processing enterprises is seasonally decreasing. The domestic corn market is expected to be weak at the bottom [39] - **Livestock & Poultry Products**: - **Pigs**: A 10,000 - ton central reserve of frozen pork was purchased this Monday. The supply of pigs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the game between fundamentals and policies [40] - **Eggs**: The egg futures continued to increase positions significantly on Monday. The spot price may have a seasonal rebound in late August to September. The industry needs to accelerate capacity reduction, and the price cycle may turn around in the second half of this year. Buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips is recommended [41] - **Cotton**: The US cotton is oscillating. The weekly signing volume of US cotton decreased. The Brazilian cotton harvest progress is slow. The domestic cotton market is expected to be oscillatory, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [42] - **Sugar**: The US sugar is oscillating. The international supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar sales are fast, with light inventory pressure. The sugar price is expected to be oscillatory [43] - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the price of early - maturing apples is high but of average quality. The market is focused on the new - season output estimate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [44] - **Wood & Pulp**: - **Wood**: The futures price is oscillating. The foreign - market quotation has rebounded for two consecutive months, and the domestic supply is expected to remain low. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [45] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures rebounded yesterday. The port inventory has increased, and the domestic demand is average. A wait - and - see or range - trading strategy is recommended [46] Financial Commodities - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market rose unilaterally yesterday, and the futures contracts of stock indexes all closed up. Shanghai introduced real - estate policies. The external market closed down at night. The domestic market's external macro - liquidity is relatively stable. An allocation strategy of increasing technology - growth sectors and paying attention to consumption and cyclical sectors is recommended [47] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market focus has shifted to the equity and commodity markets. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. The price of treasury bond futures is under pressure, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48] - **Shipping Index Futures**: The supply of the European - line container shipping index is expected to contract in early September and increase in late September. The freight rate is expected to decline slowly in an oscillatory manner. Attention should be paid to the low - valuation opportunity of the December contract [20]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年08月26日 (原油) 下半年以来全球原油去库2%、成品油累库2.9%，总体石油库存小幅下降0.2%基本持平，暂未延续一 李度2.5%、二季度2.2%的累库速度，平衡表预估的三季度供需盈余放大未得到证实，体现出旺季需 求的超预期韧性，鲍威尔在央行年会的讲话亦提升9月降息预期，风险资产情绪相应受到提振。当前 原油期货及期权基金净多持仓已降至区间低位,油价对地缘风险仍相对敏感,上周五特朗普表示若 两周内俄乌不举行直接会晤仍将加大制裁力度，单边价格短期仍以偏强看待。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡。美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会讲话表示风险平衡变化可能要求调整政 策立场，市场定价9月降息基本板上钉钉，不过美联储官员表态存分歧,后续经济走向仍存不确定 性。国际金银处于震荡趋势之中，区间上方存关键阻力，维持回调买入多头思路。 【铜】 隔夜沪铜阴线调整，短线铜价受美联储9月降息概率、国内精铜消费替代与2509期权到期推涨至 7.95万上方。关注今日现铜报价。美国将铜列入2025关键矿物清单，可使相关项目更有资格获得联 邦资金支持或适用简化许可 ...

Market Overview - The report indicates a potential acceleration in the index's upward trend in the short term, with investors advised to act rationally and remain vigilant [1][9] - On the previous Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new annual high of 3883 points, with total trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, marking the second-highest trading volume in A-share history [1][4][9] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector experienced fluctuations, while the rare earth permanent magnet sector saw significant gains due to new regulatory measures that control production and pricing [5] - Precious metals also rose, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and increased demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [6] - The communication equipment sector benefited from advancements in 5G technology and government support for future industries, indicating potential investment opportunities in related companies [7][8] - The liquor and food & beverage sectors showed positive performance, with domestic consumption expected to drive growth amid ongoing economic recovery efforts [8] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to avoid blindly chasing high prices and to adopt varied strategies based on market conditions, focusing on stocks with strong performance and solid fundamentals [2][9] - Attention should be directed towards undervalued sectors with earnings support, while maintaining strict control over investment positions to ensure flexibility [2][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different sectors presenting diverse performances. In the stock index futures market, A - shares are booming, while the bond market has a certain degree of repair. The precious metals market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical factors. The shipping futures market is weak, and the non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural product markets also have their own characteristics and influencing factors [2][5][7] - For different sectors, corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on their fundamentals and market trends, such as buying put options in the stock index futures market, maintaining a wait - and - see attitude in the bond market, and taking different positions in other sectors according to their specific situations [4][6][12] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Monday, A - shares opened higher and continued to rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.26%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3%. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis of the main contracts all increased [2][3] - **News**: Shanghai optimized the housing provident fund policy, and there were important meetings between South Korea and Japan overseas [3][4] - **Funding**: On August 25, the A - share trading volume increased significantly, with a total turnover of over 3 trillion. The central bank conducted 2884 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 219 billion yuan [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to buy 09 out - of - the - money put options to protect long positions and sell 12 out - of - the - money put options to obtain time - value income [4] Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Bond futures closed sharply higher, with the 30 - year main contract rising 0.78%, the 10 - year main contract rising 0.27%, etc. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined significantly [5] - **Funding**: The central bank's MLF operation showed its intention to support the market. Although the stock market was hot in the short term, the overall liquidity was expected to be stable under the policy [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, pay attention to whether the key points are broken through, and observe whether the sentiment can continue to stabilize [6] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market News**: Trump's administration planned to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, and there were meetings between the US and South Korea. The Fed's attitude towards interest - rate cuts was divided, and the geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine was easing [7][8] - **Market Performance**: The US dollar index rebounded, and precious metals slightly declined. The international gold price closed at 3365.95 US dollars per ounce, down 0.17%, and the international silver price closed at 38.55 US dollars per ounce, down 0.69% [8] - **Outlook**: Gold may冲击 the previous high of 3450 US dollars, and it is recommended to construct a bull spread strategy. Silver prices are generally strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions above 38 US dollars [9][10] - **Funding**: Under the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, financial institutions in Europe and the US continued to increase their holdings of gold and silver through ETFs [10] Financial Derivatives - Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotation**: As of August 26, the spot quotations of major shipping companies showed a downward trend [11] - **Shipping Index**: As of August 25, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index both declined [11] - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the PMI data of the eurozone and the US showed different situations [11] - **Logic**: The decline of the SCFIS European line may suppress market sentiment, and the downward trend of spot prices will put pressure on the futures market [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [12] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of August 25, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, and the downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases [13] - **Macro**: The Fed's dovish stance boosted the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in September, but there were still uncertainties about the subsequent interest - rate cut [13][16] - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly year - on - year [14] - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand showed different trends, with the overall demand having certain resilience [15] - **Inventory**: The three - place copper inventory decreased [15] - **Logic**: The macro situation and fundamentals jointly affect copper prices. In the absence of a clear recession expectation in the US, copper prices will at least remain volatile [16] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to be in the range of 78500 - 80500, with a short - term view of oscillation [16] Alumina - **Spot**: The spot price of alumina showed a north - south differentiation, with the northern region under pressure and the southern region relatively supported [16] - **Supply**: In July, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity was expected to increase slightly in August [17] - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [17] - **Logic**: The market is in a game between short - term supply disturbances and medium - term capacity relaxation. The price is expected to be in the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan per ton [18] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3000 - 3300, with a view of wide - range oscillation and short - selling on rallies in the medium term [18] Aluminum - **Spot**: On August 25, the average price of A00 aluminum increased, and the premium decreased [18] - **Supply**: In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased [19] - **Demand**: The downstream was in the transition stage between the off - season and the peak season, and the operating rates of some industries increased [19] - **Inventory**: The domestic mainstream consumption - area inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [20] - **Logic**: The market is facing supply - demand pressure, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan per ton [20] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20000 - 21000, and pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 [21] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On August 25, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 increased [21] - **Supply**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rate increased. In August, it was expected to remain stable [21] - **Demand**: In July, the demand was under pressure, and the market trading activity decreased [21] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slightly, and some areas' inventories were close to full [22] - **Logic**: The fundamentals showed marginal improvement, and the spot price was expected to be relatively stable. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19600 - 20400 yuan per ton [22] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19600 - 20400. If the short - term upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, it can be considered to participate in the arbitrage of long AD and short AL when the spread is above 500 [22] Zinc - **Spot**: On August 25, the average price of zinc ingots increased, and the downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases [23] - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply was in a loose cycle, and the domestic refined zinc production increased significantly in July [23] - **Demand**: The spot premium was at a low level, and the operating rates of the three primary processing industries were at a seasonal low [24] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [24] - **Logic**: The supply - side is loose, and the demand - side is weak, but the decline of LME inventory provides support. The short - term zinc price is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [25] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to be in the range of 22000 - 23000, with a short - term view of oscillation [25] Tin - **Spot**: On August 25, the price of 1 tin increased, and the downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases [25] - **Supply**: In July, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased, and the supply was difficult to improve in the short term [26] - **Demand and Inventory**: The operating rates of solder enterprises decreased, and the demand was expected to be weak. The LME inventory increased slightly, and the social inventory decreased [27][28] - **Logic**: Affected by the Fed's dovish stance, the tin price rose. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar [28] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, with a short - term view of wide - range oscillation [28] Nickel - **Spot**: As of August 25, the average price of electrolytic nickel increased [29] - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel was at a relatively high level, and the monthly production was expected to increase slightly [29] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating was stable, the alloy demand was good, the stainless - steel demand was general, and the demand for nickel sulfate was under pressure [29] - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory and bonded - area inventory were relatively stable [30] - **Logic**: The macro - environment improved, and the cost had certain support. The price was expected to be adjusted within a range in the short term [31] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to be in the range of 118000 - 126000, with a short - term view of range oscillation [32] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of August 25, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased, and the basis decreased [32] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was relatively stable, the price of nickel iron increased slightly, and the price of ferrochrome was expected to be stable [32][33] - **Supply**: The estimated production of stainless - steel crude steel in August increased month - on - month [33] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts increased [33] - **Logic**: The cost provided support, but the demand was weak. The short - term market was expected to be oscillating within a range [34] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12600 - 13400, with a short - term view of range oscillation [35] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of August 25, the spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the downstream mainly made purchases at low prices [35] - **Supply**: In July, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production in August was expected to increase. The supply was expected to contract [36] - **Demand**: The demand was relatively optimistic, and the demand in August was expected to increase [36] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased, with the upstream inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [37] - **Logic**: The market was in a narrow - range oscillation, and the short - term price was expected to oscillate around 80,000 [38][39] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, with a short - term view of range oscillation [39] Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: Futures prices rose, and spot prices followed. The steel billet price increased by 40 to 3120 yuan, and the prices of other steel products also changed accordingly [39] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost support was expected to weaken, and the steel profit declined this week [39] - **Supply**: The iron - element production increased year - on - year, and the steel production in August increased compared with July. There was a risk of inventory accumulation from August to September [39] - **Demand**: The overall demand for steel increased year - on - year, and the decline in demand in the off - season was not significant. The current overall apparent demand decreased [40] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products increased this week, with the inventory of rebar increasing significantly [40] - **Viewpoint**: It is expected that the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil will decline, and the steel price will remain oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to try long positions [40] Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of August 25, the spot prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased [41] - **Futures**: The iron ore futures contracts rose [41] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties was calculated [42] - **Demand**: The daily average hot - metal production increased slightly, and the blast - furnace operating rate decreased slightly [42] - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased [42] - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased slightly, the daily average port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory decreased [42] - **Viewpoint**: It is recommended to buy at low prices unilaterally and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [43] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures rebounded strongly, and the spot price was relatively stable [44][46] - **Supply**: The coal mine operating rate increased, and the inventory of some coal mines increased [44][45] - **Demand**: The coking plant operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream demand was stable, but the demand was expected to decline in late August [45][46] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased slightly, with different inventory changes in different sectors [45][46] - **View，point**: It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 2601 contract and recommend the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [46] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures rebounded strongly, and the seventh - round price increase of coke was implemented [47][48] - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke increased [47] - **Supply**: The coking plant operating rate increased due to the improvement of profits [47][48] - **Demand**: The hot - metal production was at a high level, but it was expected to decline in August [48] - **Inventory**: The coking plant inventory increased, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased [48] - **Viewpoint**: It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 2601 contract and recommend the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [48] Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal decreased [50] - **Fundamentals**: There were changes in the soybean policies of Brazil and Argentina, and the EU's oilseed imports decreased [50][51] - **Market Outlook**: The cost provided strong support, and the long - term outlook was positive [49][52] Pig - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of pigs was weakly oscillating [53] - **Market Data**: The profit of pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight increased [53][54] - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and it can be considered to lay out long positions in the far - month 01 contract below 14,000 [54][55] Corn - **Spot Price**: As of August 25, the spot prices of corn in different regions decreased [56] - **Fundamentals**: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased, with the corn inventory increasing significantly [56] - **Market Outlook**: The short - term supply and demand of corn were loose, and the price was expected to be weakly oscillating. In the medium term, the price was expected to move down towards the new - season cost [57]

Investment Highlights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole conference suggests a potential adjustment in policy due to employment growth risks, with a significant increase in the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September [2][4] - Precious metals are expected to perform well, with COMEX gold rising by 1.05% and silver by 2.26% following the dovish signals and increased ETF inflows [2][5] - Copper prices are experiencing high volatility, with a 0.50% increase, supported by expectations of preventive rate cuts and the end of the consumption off-season [2][3] Sector Analysis - Aluminum prices are focused on inventory depletion during the peak demand season, with a decrease of 8,872 tons in electrolytic aluminum inventory, indicating strong seasonal stocking behavior [3] - Tungsten prices continue to rise, driven by increased quotes from major tungsten companies and a 34.1% month-over-month increase in exports, indicating improving overseas demand [3][4] - Cobalt prices are steadily increasing due to seasonal demand and U.S. Department of Defense plans to purchase 7,500 tons of cobalt for strategic reserves, marking the first procurement since 1990 [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Zhaojin Mining, Xinyi Silver, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [5]