Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant restructuring, with central banks increasing gold purchases and international gold prices experiencing high volatility due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating interest rate expectations [1][3]. Industry Pain Points: Dual Challenges of Volatility and Compliance Risks - The gold investment sector faces two main risks: uncontrolled short-term volatility and compliance issues with trading platforms. For instance, during the May 2025 Federal Reserve meeting, gold prices dropped by 3% in a single day, leading to account liquidations for some investors [3]. - The number of non-compliant platforms in Hong Kong surged by 45% in 2024, with issues such as false credentials and fund misappropriation becoming prevalent. Additionally, the average spread in the industry reached $0.5 per ounce, while 35% of platforms still used mixed account models, compromising fund safety [3]. Jinsheng Precious Metals' Three-Dimensional Risk Control System - Jinsheng Precious Metals has established a comprehensive risk management system that includes compliance, dynamic risk control models, and scenario-based solutions [4]. - The compliance framework features bank-level fund segregation and transaction transparency, with client funds stored in dedicated accounts at HSBC and subjected to third-party audits. This system has earned the "Most Trusted Platform in Asia-Pacific" certification for six consecutive years [4]. - The dynamic risk control model limits individual trade risks to 2% of total account funds, and during Q1 2025, the platform adjusted leverage from 1:200 to 1:100 in response to market volatility, reducing user risk exposure by 35% [5]. - Scenario-based solutions, such as the "key point warning radar," provide real-time risk alerts, helping users manage their positions effectively. In Q2 2025, the average drawdown for Jinsheng users was only 7.2%, significantly better than the market average of 15.6% [6]. Cost Optimization and Service Innovation - Jinsheng has introduced a "zero commission + instant rebate" policy, reducing the London gold spread to $0.3 per ounce, which is over 30% lower than the industry average. This can save high-frequency traders thousands in fees monthly [8]. - The platform offers a "21-day simulation training camp" and mini contracts starting from 0.01 lots, enabling new investors to quickly learn risk management strategies through AI-assisted trading [8]. Industry Benchmark Value: Compliance and Technology as Dual Drivers - Jinsheng has established a $1 billion risk reserve fund to act as a market maker during liquidity crises, ensuring priority execution of client liquidation orders [9]. - The research team publishes a daily "Precious Metals Morning Report," providing strategic insights based on Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical events, helping users avoid potential losses exceeding 15% during critical periods [9]. - The combination of technology and service has led to a user recommendation rate of 98%, making Jinsheng a preferred choice for 30 million global investors. The company positions itself as a "wealth ark" for investors, emphasizing low costs, high transparency, and strong protection [9].

周一(7月7日)，白银交易价格大幅下跌，从早盘一度触及的37.20美元(略低于6月18日创下的13年高点37.29美元)回落。随着整体贵金属市场面临美 元走强和美联储政策担忧的阻力，白银正测试关键支撑位。 白银目前正测试36.30美元的短期枢轴位，分析师警告，若该水平失守，可能引发价格暴跌至35.40-34.87美元的主要支撑区间。从近13年高点回落 的走势表明，与黄金的下跌类似，市场正面临获利了结压力，因投资者在特朗普关税截止前和美联储政策明朗化前重新评估贵金属持仓。 1. 合规保障与透明交易 白银的工业属性在这一轮行情中尤为突出。国际能源署《2025 年全球光伏市场纵览》报告显示，2024 年全球光伏新增装机量突破 600 吉瓦，而白 银在光伏电池中占比超过 10%，是制造银浆的关键原材料。新能源汽车产业同样贡献显著，混动汽车与纯电汽车的单位白银用量较传统汽车分别 提升了 21% 和 71%，随着市场渗透率提高，需求将持续扩张。东兴证券研报指出，2025-2027 年间全球白银供需缺口或由 6003 吨逐渐放大至 7248 吨，工业用银消耗量将作为核心动力持续增长。 美联储政策与地缘风险交织，波动中暗藏机 ...

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 7月10日（周四）收盘上涨0.67%报769.21元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 7月10日（周四）收盘上涨0.36%报8900.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The metal sector is divided into non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. Different options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties in each sector based on the analysis of underlying market conditions, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - For various metal options, information such as the latest price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change of the underlying contracts is presented. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2508) is 78,330, with a decrease of 580 and a decline rate of 0.74% [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR data of different metal options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of copper is 0.75 with a change of - 0.12, and the open interest PCR is 0.61 with a change of - 0.06 [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different metal options are determined from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of copper is 82,000 and the support level is 78,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different metal options are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 12.67%, and the weighted implied volatility is 17.79% with a change of 2.24% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper Options**: Based on the analysis of copper fundamentals, market conditions, option factors, directional strategies (constructing a bull - spread combination of call options), volatility strategies (constructing a short - volatility seller option combination), and spot long - hedging strategies are proposed [8]. - **Aluminum/Alumina Options**: Analyze the fundamentals and market conditions of aluminum and alumina, and suggest directional strategies (bull - spread combination of call options), volatility strategies (constructing a short - position call + put option combination), and spot long - hedging strategies [9]. - **Zinc/Lead Options**: Provide strategies for zinc and lead options, including volatility strategies (constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination) and spot long - hedging strategies [9]. - **Nickel Options**: Suggest volatility strategies (constructing a short - bearish call + put option combination) and spot long - hedging strategies for nickel options [10]. - **Tin Options**: Propose volatility strategies (short - volatility strategy) and spot long - hedging strategies for tin options [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate Options**: Suggest volatility strategies (constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination) and spot long - covered call strategies for lithium carbonate options [11]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold/Silver Options**: Analyze the fundamentals and market conditions of gold and silver, and suggest volatility strategies (constructing a long - biased short - volatility option seller combination) and spot long - hedging strategies [12]. - **Black Metals** - **Rebar Options**: Provide volatility strategies (constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination) and spot long - covered call strategies for rebar options [13]. - **Iron Ore Options**: Suggest volatility strategies (constructing a short - bullish call + put option combination) and spot long - hedging strategies for iron ore options [13]. - **Ferroalloy Options**: Propose volatility strategies (short - volatility strategy) for ferroalloy options [14]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Options**: Provide volatility strategies (constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination) and spot long - covered call strategies for industrial silicon and polysilicon options [14]. - **Glass Options**: Suggest volatility strategies (constructing a short - volatility call + put option combination) and spot long - hedging strategies for glass options [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Different industries have distinct market conditions and investment logics, with various factors such as import - profit, tariffs, supply - demand, and seasonal factors influencing their performance [1][2][3][6] - Attention should be paid to policy changes, supply - demand rhythm differences, and price differentials in different industries for potential investment opportunities Summary by Category Import Profit/Price Differential - On July 9, 2025, M - grade US cotton with 141% tariff had an import profit of - 19150, Brazilian soybean crush margin in March was - 4, and palm oil import profit in September was - 398 [1] - Energy products like high - sulfur had an internal - external price differential of - 10, low - sulfur had 17, SC - WTI had 4, and SC - DUBAI had 1 - For non - ferrous metals, nickel spot import profit was - 2437, zinc three - month import profit was - 1295, and copper spot import profit was - 537 - Precious metals had a gold internal - external price differential of 661 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Understand logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence for non - ferrous metals internal - external arbitrage - Focus on fourth - quarter internal - external reverse arbitrage for aluminum [1] Iron Ore - Proximal shipments have declined from high levels, arrivals have recovered slowly, iron - water production has decreased from high levels, and the ore price center has dropped - There are few internal - external price differential opportunities in the short term, with the core being to capture the discount of continuous iron futures - The global balance sheet is relatively surplus compared to China's [2] Oil Products - SC: Warehouse receipts increased, internal - external prices weakened, and the August OSP remained stable - FU: Maintained a weak internal - external pattern in summer, and internal - external prices weakened rapidly due to a large increase in Zhoushan delivery goods - LU: Internal - external prices oscillated at high levels, waiting for an increase in domestic production - PG: The July CP official price was unexpectedly low, the external price dropped, and the internal - external price differential strengthened significantly. With the expected increase in PDH operation, propane is strong; civil gas prices are suppressed, and a positive - arbitrage approach is recommended [3] Agricultural Products - Cotton: Due to trade wars and sanctions, the internal and external cotton markets are decoupling, and the strength relationship between US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton has reversed with tariff policy changes. Follow - up tariff policies should be continuously monitored - Oilseeds and oils: These products have a high import dependence, and attention should be paid to the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [6] Precious Metals - RMB exchange - rate fluctuations support the internal - market price, causing the internal - external price ratio to decline rapidly - The silver spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [7] PX - Domestic PX operation has rebounded to a high level, and there are still some overseas maintenance. With the subsequent restart of TA, PX is in a de - stocking state, and the valuation has been somewhat restored. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see [8]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - The gold market is stabilizing with spot gold and COMEX gold prices fluctuating around $3,300 per ounce, as risk aversion sentiment decreases [1] - Heraeus Precious Metals predicts that international gold prices will fluctuate between $3,150 and $3,500 per ounce in the short term, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases [1][2] - U.S. economic data remains resilient, with June non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, which has weakened the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations for July, leading to downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks continue to support gold demand, with a net increase of 20 tons of gold in May, primarily from Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Poland [2] - Despite a slight slowdown in the pace of gold purchases, market sentiment remains optimistic, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting an increase in gold holdings [2] - The demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical and inflation risks is rising, reflecting a structural shift in reserve management and increased diversification away from the U.S. dollar [2] Group 3: Platinum Market Dynamics - Platinum prices are maintaining strength due to demand from the jewelry sector, with prices fluctuating around $1,400 per ounce [2][3] - The platinum market is in a three-year supply-demand imbalance, with visible inventories being continuously consumed, leading to high leasing rates for platinum [3] - China's jewelry demand has significantly boosted platinum prices, with imports increasing to 12.57 tons in May, up from 11.54 tons in April, indicating strong physical demand [3]

在贵金属市场持续升温的背景下，国际投行ROTH Capital Partners近期发布了一份研究报告引发市场关注，将希尔威矿业的目标价从6.25美元大幅上调至6.75 美元，重申"买入"评级。 这一调整的核心依据，是ROTH对全球金银价格前景的全面重估——该机构将2026年白银均价预测从27.06美元/盎司提升至32.50美元/盎司，黄金均价预测则 从2300美元/盎司跃升至2863美元/盎司。 报告明确将目标价上调归因于"更高的金银价格预期推动了估值提升"，即使折现率从10%升至11%，依然难掩基本面改善带来的价值重估。 根据新模型，ROTH预计希尔威2026年营收将达3.305亿美元，较此前预测提升14.9%，2027年营收预计增长至4.066亿美元；每股收益(EPS)同步跃升，2026 年预期达0.41美元，2027年升至0.53美元，对应市盈率仅10.3倍与8.0倍。 一、风起金银：全球机构共识下的贵金属新周期 ROTH的乐观判断并非孤例。当前全球主流机构已形成对贵金属的看多共识，黄金、白银均持续走高。 今年4月，COMEX黄金达到3509.0美元/盎司，并保持高位盘整，这背后是全球黄金需求持续高涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industry products, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting different approaches such as buying, selling, or holding based on the specific market conditions of each commodity [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices are in high - level oscillation. China's central bank has increased gold holdings for 8 consecutive months. Suggest going long on gold due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic [1]. - **Silver**: It shows a rebound with good market sales recently. Long - term industrial silver demand is downward, so consider long - term short positions or going long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices oscillated. Trump's tariff increase affected the market. It is recommended to wait for a full adjustment and then buy at low prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to oscillate. It is advised to wait and see due to macro uncertainties and a consumption off - season [2]. - **Alumina**: Prices may be strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy at low prices or purchase call options [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term market sentiment is strong with high unilateral risks. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is recommended to wait and see due to expected marginal improvement and industrial information disturbances [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to wait and see and try a reverse spread [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are neutral. It is recommended to wait and see and layout long positions on the far - month coil - ore ratio [4][5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is relatively loose with improving fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound oscillation. Domestic soybeans follow international cost - side trends [6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range due to reduced surplus grain and wheat substitution [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract is expected to be weak and oscillate. It is recommended to short in the futures market, sell call options, or lock in prices for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: It is expected to be strong in the short term with wide - range oscillations. Pay attention to production areas and bio - diesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate due to high supply and cost support [7]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and adjust due to increasing supply and weakening demand [7]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the market is affected by weather [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Short - term supply and demand improve. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [8][9]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to wait and see after gradually closing short positions [9]. - **PTA**: It is recommended to go long on PX, do a positive spread on PTA, and short processing fees in the long term [9]. - **Glass**: Fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The short - term trend is weak and oscillating. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [9][10]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The long - term trend is bearish. It is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to inventory accumulation [10]. - **Styrene**: The short - term trend is weak and oscillating. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [10][11].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that participants believe it may be appropriate to lower the federal funds rate target range this year as inflation and activity outlooks become clearer [1] - The U.S. soybean export net sales for the week ending July 3 are expected to be between 300,000 to 600,000 tons for the 2024/25 marketing year, and between 50,000 to 400,000 tons for the 2025/26 marketing year [1] - In June, the national consumer price index in China rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with urban prices up by 0.1% and rural prices down by 0.2% [1] Group 2 - The average transaction price for low-sulfur coking coal in Lishi, Shanxi, reached 1,123 yuan per ton, an increase of 123 yuan per ton compared to June 25, due to market sentiment and lack of participation from coal mines in recent auctions [1] - The sugar production in Brazil's central-south region is expected to decrease by 9.8% to 2.95 million tons, with sugarcane crushing down by 9.7% year-on-year to 44.24 million tons [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production is projected to increase to 19.5 million tons for the 2025/26 marketing year, reflecting a growth of 0.5% [1] Group 3 - The total inventory of refined oil at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE reached 20.685 million barrels, an increase of 152,900 barrels from the previous week [1] - U.S. crude oil exports rose by 452,000 barrels per day to 2.757 million barrels per day for the week ending July 4, while strategic petroleum reserve stocks increased by 23,800 barrels to 403 million barrels [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains its copper price forecast at $9,700 per ton for December 2025 on the London Stock Exchange, adjusting the U.S. copper import tariff benchmark from 25% to 50% [1] Group 4 - The photovoltaic industry is advancing a plan to "reduce internal competition and cut capacity," aiming to establish a platform company for debt acquisition of excess capacity, which will help balance supply and demand [1] - The international oil prices saw a slight decline, with U.S. oil closing at $68.29 per barrel and Brent at $70.13 per barrel, while the U.S. EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 7.07 million barrels [1] - International precious metal futures showed mixed results, with COMEX gold rising by 0.17% to $3,322.50 per ounce, while silver fell by 0.39% to $36.61 per ounce, influenced by trade tensions prompting central banks to increase gold purchases [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D rose by 0.46% to 767.61 yuan per gram on July 10, 2023 [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T+D fell by 0.16% to 8854.0 yuan per kilogram on July 10, 2023 [1]