Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver have surged significantly, driven by various underlying factors including concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical risks [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 12, the spot gold market experienced a breakthrough, reaching a peak of $4601.38 per ounce, surpassing the previous record set on December 29, 2025 [1]. - Spot silver also saw a nearly 6% increase, breaking the $84 per ounce mark, contributing to a wave of price surges in the precious metals market [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Concerns regarding political interference in the Federal Reserve's independence have resurfaced, leading to a weakening of the US dollar and US stock index futures, which in turn has made precious metals more attractive to investors [1][3]. - High geopolitical risks, particularly the US military intervention in Venezuela, have heightened global political uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like precious metals [3]. - The rising fiscal risks in the US, exacerbated by previous policies, have led to increased skepticism about the stability of the US economy, further driving investment towards gold and silver [3]. Group 3: Market Signals - Technical market signals indicate a tendency for investors to buy on dips and breakouts, suggesting that price corrections may present good entry points for investors [3]. - If political risks escalate further, precious metals are likely to serve as a "safety valve" for investors, providing a secure haven amidst market volatility [3].

Oil Market - Oil prices ended a volatile week with a slight increase, as traders assessed tensions in Iran and broader market sentiment [2][12] - WTI futures for February delivery rose by 0.4% to settle at $59.44 per barrel, recovering from a 4.6% drop earlier in the week, the largest decline since June [2][12] - Brent futures for March delivery increased by 0.6%, settling at $64.13 per barrel [2][13] - President Trump's comments regarding Iran's decision to cancel the execution of protesters reduced market expectations for immediate U.S. intervention [13][14] - The U.S. is increasing its military presence in the Middle East, with at least one aircraft carrier deployed and more military assets expected in the coming days [13][14] - Traders typically hedge bearish bets before weekends during periods of heightened geopolitical risk [14] Precious Metals - Gold prices declined as President Trump expressed reservations about Kevin Hassett's nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, adding uncertainty to the selection process [4][16] - Following Trump's remarks, the dollar narrowed its losses, and U.S. Treasury yields rose, leading to a 1.7% drop in gold prices [5][17] - Gold spot prices fell by 0.66% to $4,585.61 per ounce, while silver spot prices decreased by 3.25% to $89.4164 per ounce [17] Base Metals - Base metal prices on the London market experienced significant declines at the end of a dramatic week [18][19] - Benchmark futures for copper, tin, zinc, and aluminum all fell, with LME copper down 2.3% to $12,803 per ton and LME tin down 7.8% to $47,982 per ton [20] - The sell-off in the Shanghai market contributed to the speed and characteristics of the market movements, with traders likely closing long positions rather than driven by new demand or macro signals [19][20]

Market Overview - US stock indices opened higher with the Dow Jones up 0.11%, Nasdaq up 0.47%, and S&P 500 up 0.22%, but later turned negative [1] - The aerospace and defense sectors led gains, with semiconductor stocks experiencing significant increases, particularly Micron Technology, which rose over 8% [3] Semiconductor Sector - Micron Technology's board member Teyin Liu purchased 23,200 shares for approximately $7.8 million, indicating confidence in the company's future [3] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict ASML could see a further 70% increase as chip manufacturers ramp up spending to meet surging AI demand [3] Technology Giants - The performance of the "Big Seven" tech companies was mixed, with Nvidia and Tesla rising nearly 1%, while Apple, Google, and Amazon saw declines [4] Chinese Stocks - The Chinese stock index fell over 1.42%, with notable declines in companies like Su Xuan Tang Pharmaceutical down over 14% and others like Zhihu and Century Internet down over 5% [4] Commodity Market - Precious metals experienced a collective decline, with spot gold falling to $4,590 per ounce, down 0.58%, and silver dropping to $89 per ounce, down 3.28% [4] - Copper prices dropped over 2% due to Nvidia's significant downward revision of copper demand projections [4] Storage Chip Market - Citi analysts expect storage chip prices to see "explosive increases" by 2026, raising DRAM price increase forecasts from 53% to 88% and NAND from 44% to 74% [6] - The AI investment trend is anticipated to continue throughout the year, with potential winners and losers as companies navigate this new technology [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in spot silver prices, which fell below $88 per ounce [1] - Silver-related stocks in the U.S. market experienced weakness, with notable declines in several companies [1] Group 2 - Hecla Mining (HL.US) saw a drop of over 1.3% [1] - First Majestic Silver (AG.US) decreased by more than 1% [1] - Pan American Silver (PAAS.US) fell by 2% [1] - Coeur Mining (CDE.US) experienced a slight decline of 0.24% [1]

Core Insights - The international spot silver price has surpassed $90 per ounce, reaching a historic high and a total market value of $5.039 trillion, making it the second-largest asset globally after gold [1][3] - Silver's value is being redefined due to global energy transition and technological changes, with significant demand growth driven by solar energy, electric vehicles, and AI [3][5] - The volatility in the silver market is linked to the cryptocurrency market, highlighting the increasing demand for stable and flexible trading channels [5][7] Market Dynamics - Silver's demand is supported by its applications in photovoltaic panels, electric vehicle systems, and AI chip cooling structures, with the silver usage in solar energy expected to grow from 2,330 tons in 2019 to 7,217 tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 25.4% [3] - The macroeconomic environment, including expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, is driving funds into physical assets [3][5] - The global silver production is approximately 25,000 tons annually, primarily as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mining, with a significant reduction in available inventory [3][7] Technological Advancements - XBIT, a decentralized trading platform, has demonstrated resilience and risk management capabilities, becoming a crucial support for investors during market fluctuations [5][7] - The platform's smart routing system enhances liquidity matching and includes risk monitoring mechanisms, providing a safety net for cross-market investors [5] - XBIT's innovative features, such as a no-KYC model for direct cryptocurrency purchases linked to U.S. stocks, facilitate efficient cross-market asset allocation [5][7] Future Outlook - The sustainability of silver's position as the second-largest asset will depend on U.S. Federal Reserve policies, the pace of green energy installations, and geopolitical developments [7] - Despite long-term support from solar expansion and central bank reserve demand, price volatility has increased, necessitating enhanced risk management strategies for investors [7] - The ongoing evolution of decentralized trading platforms like XBIT is expected to play a pivotal role in navigating the complexities of silver and cryptocurrency market interactions [7]

标:安安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿同读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的排价，亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因装放人以到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 2026/1/16 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 王蒙 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixi ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01. 16」 铂钯金市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 本周观点：本周广期所铂钯金主力合约区间震荡运行。宏观方面，美国去年11月PPI数据略高于预期，12月 CPI通胀走势延续温和态势，非农就业新增不及预期，年内50-75基点的降息空间仍存，联储扩表计划提振流 动性宽松叙事。供应端方面，俄罗斯矿业巨头诺里尔斯克净利同比骤降37%，并继续将销售重心东移以对冲 西方买家的规避情绪，引发市场对2026年钯金出口可靠性的再度担忧。南非方面，自去年 5 月中旬以来官 方已连续103天暂停强制性负荷削减，电力供应稳定度为近四年以来的最佳水平，令铂矿山短期停产概率显 著下降，但长期维护积压问题仍未根除。整体来看，2026年全球铂矿产量恢复速度仍落后于需求修复，世界 铂金投资协会(WPIC)继续预测供需缺口延续以及地上库存持续耗减的态势。 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日贵金属板块主力资金净流出9.52亿元，游资资金净流入2.23亿元，散户资金净流 入7.3亿元。贵金属板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，1月16日贵金属板块较上一交易日下跌1.9%，西部黄金领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4101.91，下跌0.26%。深证成指报收于14281.08，下跌0.18%。贵金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002716 | 湖南白银 | 11.15 | 5.79% | 474.72万 | 52.85 Z | | 002237 | 恒邦股份 | 15.02 | 0.47% | 66.42万 | 10.07亿 | | 001337 | 四川黄金 | 34.23 | -1.18% | 42.02万 | 14.65 Z | | 000975 | 山舍国际 | 28.03 | -1.82% | 31.97万 | 9.07亿 | | 000506 | 招金黄金 | 14.52 | -1.89% | 28.23万 | 4 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国联民生证券发布研报称，美国经济前景承压，降息确定性较强，美元信用进入下 行周期，全球地缘冲突+贸易摩擦不断，各国央行及ETF购金持续支撑金价，推动金价上行。白银兼具 工业和金融属性，光伏用银需求持续，看好工业需求提振带来白银补涨行情。 国联民生证券主要观点如下： 地缘冲突+关税政策带动避险投资，海内外新兴资金涌入市场 2025年以来特朗普上台后地缘政治问题不断，以"对等关税"为代表的贸易保护主义政策进一步将全球地 缘与国际贸易风险推向历史高位。各地区黄金ETF持仓规模及交易活跃度也创历史新高。另外，国内险 资等新兴资金加速涌入黄金市场，为金价上行注入新动能。 白银：双重属性定价，关注补涨行情 白银工业需求占总需求50%以上，近年光伏用银量高增而供应增长速度有限，白银供需缺口不断放大。 白银为金融和工业属性共同定价品种，作为重要指标，金银比回落区间通常对应银价上涨。复盘历史， 金银比与PMI一般呈现反向关系，若后续金银比回落带来白银金融与商品属性共振，工业需求预期提振 下白银价格可能更具上涨弹性。 风险提示：海外地缘政治风险、美国通胀超预期风险，央行需求不及预期风险等。 美国经济前景悲观， ...

黄金重复冲高回落，不断震荡上扬，小刷新高后。再次跳水60美金，深跌围绕4600横盘整理，等爆发。 今天的走势 昨天两探4580，又是深V回升。 围绕4600，来回穿梭调整。 随着横盘整理，多空争夺。 上方回升，或再战4640的位置。 再次上破，新高再刷历史，看向4700的关口。 当然了，下方再次回落，再探4570的位置。 此位置支撑有效，看两个区域范围内的调整。 下方若失守4570的位置，继续看大的回调，看向4510的支撑。 一方面，美伊局势潮起潮落，急着升温，又突然冷却，特朗普主动给地缘泼冷水。叠加美联储对抗特朗 普施压，继续不改限制性预期，黄金持续回调调整。 另外一方面，美失业金人数出炉，结果降温，而且制造业和进口物价指数走高，再次影响美联储的政策 预期，强调或继续聚焦通胀水平。美元走强，黄金美盘持续遇阻调整。 今天消息面 周五收官日，美工业生产月率，还有房产指数双双降温，或再冲击美股汇债。 当然了，美联储保卫战还在持续，内部分歧，降息争夺拉锯战。今晚的表态，或随时再次引发黑色星期 五突然杀到。 对于现货黄金的投资，方向和趋势的判断尤其重要。更重要的是入场点和出场点的把握能力，说白了就 是准确率，这个是能 ...