Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - EG prices are oscillating. The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,297 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 4,373 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 81 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$73/ton (down $1/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was -154 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 465,000 tons (up 6,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 363,000 tons (down 13,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 85,000 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at major ports in East China this week is 94,000 tons, a moderate amount [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load remains stable at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. There are still more than two sets of Saudi Arabian plants in shutdown or low - load operation, and some ocean - going cargoes are still delaying shipment. There is room to revise down the ethylene glycol imports from September to October. On the demand side, the current demand recovery is slow, and order connection is insufficient. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase, but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement later. In September, the EG balance sheet is slightly in surplus, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but the advanced commissioning plans of two new plants, Yulong and Ningxia Changyi, dampen market sentiment [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,297 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 4,373 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 81 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$73/ton (down $1/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was -154 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The current demand recovery is slow, and order connection is insufficient. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase, but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement later [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 465,000 tons (up 6,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 363,000 tons (down 13,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 85,000 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at major ports in East China this week is 94,000 tons, a moderate amount [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with the return of near - end TA maintenance and the increase in start - up, polyester load slightly rising, inventory remaining stable, basis being weak, and spot processing fees at a low level. As the device restarts, TA de - stocking slows down. With no unexpected performance from polyester and new production in the future, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. But the processing fee is extremely low and has lasted for a long time, and PX supply is gradually returning. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees under potential additional maintenance [2]. - For MEG, near - end domestic oil - based production is stable, coal - based start - up slightly increases, overall load rises, overseas maintenance and restart coexist, port inventory slightly accumulates with the increase in arrivals during the week, downstream stocking levels rise, basis weakens month - on - month, and the benefit ratio shrinks. EG new device feeding is earlier than expected, valuation is significantly compressed. With the increase in arrivals month - on - month and high supply expectations in the far - month, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory, but the actual inventory is still not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based cost below [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - end start - up of some companies increases, production and sales improve month - on - month, and inventory slightly decreases. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn is stable, raw material stocking decreases, and finished product inventory decreases month - on - month, with weak benefits. In the future, the speed of increasing the load of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished product inventory. With good spot benefits, the start - up of staple fiber remains high, but the inventory pressure is limited, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable and the absolute level is not high, and the price of Thai cup rubber remains stable while rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Catalog PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 11 - 17, 2025, crude oil decreased by 0.5, naphtha increased by 4, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 2, PTA inner - market spot increased by 10, POY 150D/48F decreased by 5. Naphtha cracking spread remained unchanged, PX processing spread decreased by 2, PTA processing spread remained unchanged, polyester gross profit remained unchanged, PTA balance load and PTA load remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts + valid forecasts decreased by 7889. The daily average transaction basis of PTA spot was 2601(-77) [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - end TA maintenance returns, start - up increases, polyester load slightly rises, inventory remains stable, basis is weak, and spot processing fees are at a low level. PX domestic start - up increases, overseas devices restart, PXN remains month - on - month, disproportionation benefits remain, isomerization benefits weaken, and the US - Asia aromatics spread remains stable [2]. - **Outlook**: As the device restarts, TA de - stocking slows down. With no unexpected performance from polyester and new production in the future, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. But the processing fee is extremely low and has lasted for a long time, and PX supply is gradually returning. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees under potential additional maintenance [2]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 11 - 17, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, MEG outer - market price decreased by 1, MEG inner - market price decreased by 12, MEG East China price decreased by 12, MEG far - month price decreased by 5, MEG coal - based profit remained unchanged, MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) remained unchanged, MEG total load, coal - based MEG load, and non - coal - based load remained unchanged, and MEG port inventory remained unchanged. The basis of MEG spot transaction was around 01(+82) [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - end domestic oil - based production is stable, coal - based start - up slightly increases, overall load rises, overseas maintenance and restart coexist, port inventory slightly accumulates with the increase in arrivals during the week, downstream stocking levels rise, basis weakens month - on - month, and the benefit ratio shrinks [2]. - **Outlook**: EG new device feeding is earlier than expected, valuation is significantly compressed. With the increase in arrivals month - on - month and high supply expectations in the far - month, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory, but the actual inventory is still not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based cost below [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 11 - 17, 2025, the prices of 1.4D cotton - type, low - melting - point staple fiber, etc. remained mostly unchanged. The profit of staple fiber and pure - polyester yarn remained unchanged, the difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber decreased by 5, and the difference between viscose and polyester staple fiber remained unchanged. The spot price was around 6470, and the market basis was around 10 - 40 [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - end start - up of some companies increases, production and sales improve month - on - month, and inventory slightly decreases. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn is stable, raw material stocking decreases, and finished product inventory decreases month - on - month, with weak benefits [2]. - **Outlook**: In the future, the speed of increasing the load of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished product inventory. With good spot benefits, the start - up of staple fiber remains high, but the inventory pressure is limited, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [2]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 11 - 17, 2025, the prices of various rubber products changed. For example, the daily change of US - dollar Thai standard spot was - 10, the daily change of RMB mixed rubber was - 150, etc. The weekly change of some products also showed certain fluctuations. The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable and the absolute level is not high, and the price of Thai cup rubber remains stable while rainfall affects rubber tapping [2]. - **Strategy**: The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 11 - 17, 2025, the prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, etc. changed. For example, the daily change of pure benzene (East China) was - 15, the daily change of styrene (Jiangsu) was - 15. The Asian spread of pure benzene - naphtha remained unchanged on the day of September 17, and the domestic profit of EPS increased by 15, and the domestic profit of PS increased by 15 [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Views - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,272 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,382 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.11%); the spot basis in East China was 91 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -72 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -144 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 465,000 tons, up 6,000 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 363,000 tons, down 13,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 85,000 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 94,000 tons [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load remains high, and there are still many overseas supply losses. There are two or more Saudi Arabian plants in shutdown or low - load operation, and some ocean - going cargoes are still postponed for shipment. The import volume from September to October may be revised down. On the demand side, the demand recovery is slow, and the order connection is insufficient. The polyester load is expected to increase slightly, but the increase may be limited [2]. - In September, the EG balance sheet is slightly balanced, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low. However, the advanced commissioning plans of two new plants, Yulong and Ningxia Changyi, suppress market sentiment [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,272 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China market was 4,382 yuan/ton. The spot basis in East China was 91 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -72 dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was -144 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread - Not elaborated in the text. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The demand recovery is slow, the order connection is insufficient, and the polyester load is expected to increase slightly, but the increase may be limited [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 465,000 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 363,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 85,000 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 94,000 tons [1].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Low inventory limits the downside, but the advanced commissioning plans of Yulong and Ningxia Changyi's new plants dampen market sentiment [3] - In September, the EG balance sheet is slightly in equilibrium, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but the advanced commissioning plans of new plants suppress the market [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4288 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton, +0.37% compared to the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4377 yuan/ton (-1 yuan/ton, -0.02% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 102 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 72 dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 8 dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 131 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 34 yuan/ton) [1] - The domestic ethylene glycol load remains high and stable, and there are still many supply losses overseas [2] International Price Difference - Not mentioned in the text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - Current demand is recovering slowly with insufficient order connection. It is expected that the polyester load will stabilize and increase slightly, but the increase may be limited. Pay attention to the time of concentrated order placement in the later period [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 46.5 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.6 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 36.3 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 8.5 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 9.4 tons, with a neutral arrival volume [1] - In September, the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but the advanced commissioning plans of new plants suppress the market [2]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the inventory level of inland methanol enterprises decreased due to pre - National Day holiday stocking by middle and downstream industries and increased external procurement by some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and it is expected to keep the accumulation rhythm this week. The import demand may be stable, and the specific accumulation amplitude depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. The start - up rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin is expected to rise after hedging. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2410 in the short term [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2375 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 22 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 805,395 lots, an increase of 21,504 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 148,677 lots, a decrease of 36,491 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 16,131, unchanged [3] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2295 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2135 yuan/ton, up 17.5 yuan. The East - West price difference is 160 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 80 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 265 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 326 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 293 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 61 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.04 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.08 dollars [3] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 108.95 tons, up 8.72 tons; at South China ports, it is 46.08 tons, up 3.54 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 1.19 yuan/ton, down 15.09 yuan. The monthly import volume is 110.27 tons, down 11.75 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 342,600 tons, up 1500 tons. The methanol enterprise start - up rate is 84.58%, down 0.26% [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde is 43.13%, up 5.4%; dimethyl ether is 4.86%, up 0.03%; acetic acid is 83.11%, down 1.13%; MTBE is 61.69%, down 0.53%; olefins is 81.57%, down 3.15%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin is - 955 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan [3] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 12.72%, up 0.38%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.57%, down 0.88%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.54%, up 0.06%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.55%, up 0.07% [3] 7. Industry News - As of September 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.26 tons, down 0.45 tons (1.31% MoM); the orders to be delivered were 25.07 tons, up 0.94 tons (3.91% MoM). The total port inventory was 155.03 tons, up 12.26 tons. As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.66%, down 3.16% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene: Domestic new capacity will be concentrated from August to September, domestic existing plants are operating, and the rhythm of imports has slowed down. Downstream pick-up has peaked and declined, and port inventories have also declined. However, the downstream of pure benzene is still weak, with large inventory pressure in the CPL - PA6 - nylon industry chain, and the operating rates of aniline, phenol, and styrene have decreased [1][2]. - Styrene: During the peak season, the downstream pick - up volume remains at a relatively high level, and the port inventory has declined. The plant will be shut down for maintenance in the first and middle of September, and the operating rate will decline, but it will rebound in the second half of September. The operating rates of PS and EPS among the downstream have recovered well, and the operating rate of ABS has also rebounded from a low level but with large inventory pressure [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis, main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of pure benzene, as well as EB's main contract trend and basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of styrene [8][15][17] II. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB Korea price of pure benzene and CFR Japan price of naphtha, non - integrated production profit of styrene, the difference between FOB US Gulf and FOB Korea prices of pure benzene, the difference between FOB US Gulf and CFR China prices of pure benzene, the difference between FOB Rotterdam and CFR China prices of pure benzene, import profits of pure benzene and styrene, and the differences between FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China prices of styrene [20][23][34] III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show the East China port inventory and operating rate of pure benzene, and the East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operating rate of styrene [39][41][44] IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [52][55][57] V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures display the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, as well as the production profits of PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [62][69][75] Strategies - Unilateral: None [3] - Basis and Inter - period: Do positive spreads for the EB2510 - EB2511 spread when it is low [3] - Cross - variety: Expand the EB2510 - BZ2603 spread when it is low in the short term [3]

Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with Brent 11 contract rising by 0.88%. Geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential US sanctions on Russia are increasing, providing short-term support to the oil market [1] - However, medium-term supply-demand pressures are expected to increase, with projected global oil market surpluses of 1.64 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.67 million barrels per day in 2026. The most significant surplus pressure is anticipated in the first quarter of next year [1] - Global oil inventories have increased by 1.2% since the beginning of the second half of the year, confirming ongoing expectations of a loose balance sheet [1] Precious Metals - Precious metals maintained strength overnight, with market pricing indicating that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year. Focus is on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and Powell's guidance on future paths [2] Copper Industry - Copper prices reached a new high for the year, driven by technical breakthroughs and active trading in LME special warehouses, supported by new US-China negotiations and rising precious metal prices [3] - Domestic industrial value added continued to slow down, with SMM copper social inventory increasing to 154,200 tons [3] Aluminum Industry - Shanghai aluminum showed a strong oscillation, with downstream operations continuing to seasonally recover, although aluminum ingot inventories remain low [4] - The market is closely monitoring seasonal demand feedback as the short-term price is expected to test resistance at the March high [4] Zinc Industry - LME zinc inventories are at a low of 50,000 tons, with tight overseas spot markets and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts driving a rebound in zinc prices [7] - Domestic zinc prices are under pressure from weak fundamentals, with a narrow fluctuation above 22,000 [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded with general trading activity, as total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons, while downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons [11] - The market is cautiously optimistic about short-term price support, but attention is needed on external changes for long-term direction [11] Steel Industry - Steel prices continued to rebound, with rebar demand and production both declining, while hot-rolled demand significantly improved [14] - High furnace production has alleviated negative feedback pressure, but overall demand remains weak, with steel exports maintaining high levels [14] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rose overnight, with global shipments significantly increasing, reaching a new weekly high for the year [15] - Domestic port arrivals slightly decreased, but terminal demand showed a slight recovery, supporting iron ore demand [15] Fertilizer Industry - Urea production has slightly increased due to the recovery of previously shut down facilities, maintaining a sufficient supply [23] - Industrial demand is recovering, with agricultural downstream showing signs of replenishment, particularly in the Northeast market [23] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is experiencing fluctuations as US-China trade negotiations continue, with USDA's September supply and demand report showing a slight decrease in yield but an increase in ending stocks [35] - Domestic soybean meal inventory has risen to 1.1362 million tons, indicating ample supply [35] Cotton Industry - US cotton prices showed a slight increase, with the USDA's September report indicating an upward adjustment in both production and consumption [42] - Domestic cotton sales are stable, with attention on the upcoming new cotton harvest and its impact on market dynamics [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and fundamental supply - demand situations. Most products in the sector are recommended to hold short - positions, mainly due to the high probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year, especially for crude oil. Short - term geopolitical disturbances should not be over - emphasized, and investment decisions should be based on the mid - term fundamental situation [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increases and weakening US demand, the probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on the fundamental surplus situation should be maintained [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation structure. The upper limit of the oscillation range is around 491. There is an opportunity to short at high prices near the upper limit of the range, with a stop - loss reference of 491 [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly level, and try short - selling at the upper limit of the range at the end of the day, with a stop - loss of 491 [2] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The weekly fundamentals of benzene ethylene have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory situations persist, and new device launches in September - October will increase supply pressure. The downward drive of fundamentals remains [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 7105, and the decline path remains unchanged [7] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a final stop - profit reference of 7105 [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high inventory pressure still exists. The fundamentals are currently neutral [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level is facing a decline structure. After a rebound today, pay attention to the opportunity to short if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure of 16050 at night [9] - **Strategy**: Stop - loss the 15 - minute short - positions, and then pay attention to short - selling opportunities if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost side, especially butadiene. With the arrival of ship cargoes and future capacity expansion, the cost side is bearish [12] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 11760, and there is potential for further decline [15] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11760 [15] (5) PX - **Logic**: PX profits have recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery is slower than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term decline structure is being tested. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper limit pressure of 6770 [20] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle [20] (6) PTA - **Logic**: PTA supply has increased, and demand is stable. The terminal operating rate in the peak season is weaker than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [22] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4700 [22] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [22] (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new capacity launches. Pay attention to the cost - side collapse logic [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 6985 [26] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [26] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High operating rates and high imports have led to high inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profits have improved, the bearish fundamental pattern remains [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline/oscillation structure, and the short - term is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 2435 [30] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle cautiously, with a final stop - profit reference of 2435 [30] (9) PVC - **Logic**: High production and high inventory patterns persist due to high caustic soda profits and weak downstream demand [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term rise structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4930 [33] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [33] (10) EG - **Logic**: Current supply - demand contradictions are not significant, but supply pressure may increase in the future. Pay attention to the impact of new capacity launches [34] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The short - term pressure is 4335 [34] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4335 [34] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: New capacity has increased supply pressure, and demand recovery in the peak season is limited. Further decline requires the cost - side crude oil to continue to weaken [36] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 7270 [36] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7270 [36] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: Supply is continuously increasing, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. Although the previous over - valuation has been corrected, there is no upward drive in the short term [39] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the pressure, and the decline structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is 1320 [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [39] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is abundant, but demand has improved, and inventory pressure has been relieved. Mid - term attention should be paid to the impact of device maintenance and peak - season demand [43] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The daily oscillation did not change the decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 2625 [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2625 [43]

Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded last week, with Brent 11 contract rising by 1.84% while SC10 contract fell by 1.39%. The market remains influenced by geopolitical tensions and mid-term oversupply pressures [2] Precious Metals - The market has fully priced in the expectation of three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to a strong performance in precious metals, although volatility has increased [3] Copper - Copper prices saw a pullback after a spike, with high overseas inventory levels affecting market sentiment. Domestic production capacity is stabilizing, and attention is on current copper prices and premiums [4] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices followed the overall strength in non-ferrous metals, breaking through the 21,000 yuan mark. Seasonal demand recovery is expected, with aluminum ingot inventory likely remaining low [5] Alumina - Alumina production capacity exceeds 96 million tons, with rising industry inventory levels. The market is experiencing significant oversupply, leading to price declines [6] Zinc - LME zinc inventory is low, and external supply is tight. The market is experiencing a rebound, but domestic prices lag behind. Short-term strategies should focus on macroeconomic influences [8] Lead - Lead production is expected to decrease due to factory repairs, easing supply pressure. However, demand remains weak, with limited purchasing activity from downstream sectors [9] Steel Industry - Steel prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with rebar demand and production continuing to decline. The construction sector is slowing down, impacting overall demand [15][16] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with stable port inventories and a slight recovery in demand. Steel mills are expected to continue replenishing inventories in the short term [16] Fertilizer Industry - Urea prices are declining due to weak market sentiment and high inventory levels among producers. Agricultural demand remains low, leading to a continuation of weak market conditions [25] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are experiencing low volatility, with market sentiment improving slightly. Total inventory levels are decreasing, indicating potential demand recovery [12] Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight increase in soybean production despite lower yield estimates. Market sentiment remains cautious as weather conditions are expected to impact future supply [37] Cotton - Cotton prices are fluctuating, with expectations of a large new crop. The market is closely monitoring the purchasing behavior of ginners as new cotton comes to market [44] Sugar - Sugar prices are under pressure due to high production levels in Brazil, while domestic sugar sales are increasing, leading to lower inventory levels [45]

成本端疲软弱化利多预期，PX&PTA期现承压运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 需求端：尽管轻纺城单日成交环比明显放量，但当前聚酯环节仍处需求博 弈期。下游聚酯工厂负荷虽维持刚性，但坯布订单传导节奏偏慢导致涤丝 产销波动较大，旺季需求预期尚未被完全兑现。坯布库存消化进程与终端 消费增量能否匹配仍待验证，短期聚酯环节对PTA的采购支撑力度边际转 弱。 库存端：PTA工厂库存延续累库趋势，社会库存维持高位表明现货流动性压 力未减。加工费持续低位运行制约工厂减产意愿，而PX库存同步攀升导致 产业链上游积压压力向中游传导。在供需宽松格局下，库存矛盾仍将压制 现货贴水修复空间，被动累库节奏或延续至旺季订单落地阶段。 2. 聚酯 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 09月12日，PX 主力合约收6712.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.97%，基差 为-47.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4648.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.85%， 基差为-78.0元/吨。 成本 ...