地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数据、 EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 31 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 2025 年 12 月 31 日，国内商品期货 2025 年交易收官，基本金属涨幅居前， 沪镍涨 2.44%；非金属建材全部上涨，玻璃涨 1.30%；新能源材料多数上涨，多 晶硅涨 1.03%；油脂油料多数上涨，豆一涨 0.88%；航运期货全部上涨，集运指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market may experience a 30% increase in the index by 2025, but individual accounts may remain flat due to concentrated investments in specific hot stocks each month rather than broad market gains [1]. Monthly Performance Summary - January: The robot sector surged, turning an initial investment of 10,000 into 18,400 due to the popularity of humanoid robots [3]. - February: The DeepSeek model led to a valuation increase in computing power, with returns reaching 46,200 from 10,000, marking a 150.97% increase [6]. - March: Chemical products saw price increases, with an investment growing to 158,200, reflecting a 135.41% rise [6]. - April: The new retail concept gained traction amid tariff disputes, with a notable stock rising by 117.1% [6]. - May: The military and pharmaceutical sectors alternated in popularity, with AI logistics becoming a new focus, resulting in a 157.28% increase [6]. - June: Military equipment stocks surged due to geopolitical tensions, with returns reaching 159.97% [6]. - July: The rumor of Zhiyuan's acquisition led to a dramatic rise in the humanoid robot sector, with a staggering 1,083.42% increase [6]. - August: AI chip companies reported improved earnings, and battery prices stabilized, leading to a 110.36% increase [6]. - September: The release of energy storage policies accelerated market growth, with returns of 153.52% [6]. - October: Regional policies boosted stocks, with a 99.44% increase [6]. - November: The focus shifted to defensive stocks amid market adjustments, with a 143.31% increase [6]. - December: The commercial aerospace sector concluded the year strongly, with a 104.83% increase [6]. Overall Investment Growth - An initial investment of 10,000 grew to 993 million over the year through strategic monthly trading [4].

化工日报 | 2025-12-31 EG延续累库，价格低位整理 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3847元/吨（较前一交易日变动+30元/吨，幅度+0.79%），EG华东市场现货价 3702元/吨（较前一交易日变动+19元/吨，幅度+0.52%），EG华东现货基差-139元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-87美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-841 元/吨（环比+16元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，副 港到港量2.5万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，副港到港量4.3万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡 略累。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷回升至7成以上高位，1~2月高供 应和需求转弱下累库压力仍大；海外供应方面，随着沙特、台湾装置检修，后续2月后进口压力将有所 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The implementation of the trade - in policy will continue to boost the terminal demand for chemicals. The prices of energy and chemical products will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The OPEC+ will hold a monthly video conference on January 4th to plan the organization's future production, and the market generally expects it to maintain the decision of "suspending the production increase in the first quarter". Geopolitical situations in Venezuela, Russia, and Ukraine are short - term supports for oil prices. The Chinese government has advanced the issuance of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade - in, which will significantly boost styrene [2]. - The supply and demand of the chemical industry have been flat recently, with no major contradictions, and the overall trend will be volatile. The PTA spot processing fee has increased, and the operating enthusiasm of PTA enterprises will rise. The processing fee of downstream polyester filament has dropped to a three - year low, and the industrial chain profit has shifted. The spot liquidity of polyolefin has tightened, and the futures price will move sideways. The rebound of styrene is not optimistic due to the drag of raw material pure benzene and high inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela continue to disrupt the market, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate. API data shows that US crude oil and refined product inventories continued to accumulate in the week of December 26th, and the total inventory of US crude oil and petroleum products is rising against the seasonal trend. The geopolitical prospects in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are the core factors affecting crude oil supply expectations. The decline in Venezuela's shipments is not obvious for now, but its crude oil exports are expected to decline later. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate under the balance of oversupply and frequent geopolitical disruptions [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price rises following the increase in crude oil prices. The increase in crude oil prices drives up the asphalt futures price. If there is a substantial supply disruption in the US - Venezuela situation, the asphalt price will be strong; otherwise, it may rise and then fall. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory is starting to accumulate [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Be vigilant about the positive support for fuel oil from Iran's suspension of natural gas supply to Iraq. Although there are factors that support the high - sulfur fuel oil price, such as the potential resumption of fuel oil power generation in Iran and Iraq, the demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and there are medium - and long - term double negatives [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates [4]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions have emerged again, and combined with capital rotation, the upward trend in the pre - holiday market may continue [4]. - **Urea**: There is concentrated pre - holiday procurement, and urea is expected to be in a consolidation state [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force for ethylene glycol is average [4]. - **PX**: The expected supply - demand pattern of PX has weakened, and the price has回调 after rising. International oil prices are strong, providing cost support. However, due to the market's focus on supply increase expectations, the price has回调 after rising, and the terminal has slowed down its procurement rhythm [12]. - **PTA**: The maintenance of polyester plants is gradually being implemented. The supply - demand of PTA has weakened marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost in the short term [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: The callback is limited, the processing fee is under pressure, and the willingness to reduce production is increasing. The cost support is strong, but the downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the processing fee is under pressure [24]. - **Bottle Chip**: It fluctuates following the upstream cost. The price of polyester bottle chips fluctuates following the raw materials, and the short - term driving force is limited [26]. - **Propylene**: The CP price in January has been raised, and the PDH is expected to reduce its operating rate, so the PL has strengthened slightly [4]. - **PP**: The CP price has been raised, and PP has strengthened slightly [4]. - **Plastic**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the holiday, and plastic is expected to fluctuate. Oil prices are fluctuating, and the fundamental support for plastic has increased slightly, but the driving force for both long and short positions is relatively weak [31]. - **Styrene**: The short - term market is dominated by sentiment, and the sustainability of export transactions should be monitored. The cost support from pure benzene is weak, but there are positive factors such as export orders and market sentiment stimulation. However, the supply and demand situation is not optimistic, and the upside is restricted [18]. - **PVC**: Short - sellers take profits before the holiday, and PVC is mainly in a fluctuating state. The macro - level sentiment boost may be short - term, and the supply - demand expectation has improved, but the high - inventory pressure still exists [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. The macro - level sentiment boost may be short - term, and the supply - demand is still in a state of oversupply in the short term [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are given, along with their latest values and changes [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists different varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial products index is 2271.47, up 0.56% [284]. - **Energy Index**: On December 30, 2025, the energy index was 1093.97, with a daily increase of 0.49%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.23%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.18%, and a year - to - date decrease of 10.91% [286].

化工日报 | 2025-12-30 EG延续累库，价格低位整理 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，EG装置变动超预期 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3817元/吨（较前一交易日变动-29元/吨，幅度-0.75%），EG华东市场现货价 3683元/吨（较前一交易日变动+13元/吨，幅度+0.35%），EG华东现货基差-136元/吨（环比+16元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-87美元/吨（环比+3美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-857 元/吨（环比+41元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，副 港到港量2.5万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，副港到港量4.3万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡 略累。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷回升至7成以上高位，1~2月高供 应和需求转弱下累库 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-30 乌克兰停⽕协议短期难以达成，化⼯供 需偏弱⽽预期较好，期价延续震荡 乌克兰停火协议仍未有实质性进展，而中国在加大对原油的进口量， 油价延续震荡整理态势。彭博报道，美国特朗普总统12约28日在海湖庄园 与泽连斯基总统会谈后表示，双方取得了"进展"。泽连斯基则称，他已 向特朗普寻求为期30至50年的安全保障。俄罗斯当前仍未对协议表态。Kp ler数据显示，中国12月原油进口将创记录新高；我国财政部表示将在 2026年继续扩大财政支出范围，需求向好的预期也短暂支撑了油价。 板块逻辑： 化工整体处于震荡格局。周一液体化工库存大都攀升，纯苯最为突 出。截至12月29日当周，江苏纯苯港口库存环比增9.89%，处于五年周期 的最高库存量；苯乙烯周度库存下滑0.36%，乙二醇周度继续小幅累库。 聚烯烃的产量同比依旧维持高位，尤其是PE和LLDPE，即使如此，在宏观 的利好带动下，化工都出现了企稳迹象。当前的主力05合约距离交割时间 较远，现货供需面的弱势尚不足以对期价有立竿见影的利空效果，01合约 即将退出历史舞台。中国原油 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 自上周五夜盘开始，PX在连续上涨一周后，价格出现明显回踩，周一价格延续调整，日内最大跌幅超 3%，领跌一众化工品。从价格下跌逻辑来看，上周五原油价格回落，尽管地缘问题频发，但暂时没有 进一步升级的迹象。市场再度交易原油供给过剩，库存走高的现实，价格下跌同时，也拉低了化工品的 成本线，对于前期涨幅较大的PX、PTA构成冲击。 基本面来看，截至12月26日，中国PX开工负荷为88.2%，较上期增加0.1个百分点。2025年11月中国大 陆PX进口总量约81.7万吨，环比下滑1%，同比下滑16.3%。周度PX价格持续上行，PXN也大幅扩大， 国内外装置重启增多，开工负荷高位，下游TA加工费同样修复，装置变动增多，但终端承压明显，上 游原料的单边拉涨，与下游纱线、布厂因订单乏力而导致的成本传导受阻，矛盾加大，产业链中段的聚 酯利润压缩明显。PX现实与预期博弈，现实端随着涤丝三大厂减产计划，聚酯开工负荷有进一步下滑 可能，下游负反馈的传导与明年预期改善的博弈仍为市场矛盾关注点，警惕现实端拖拽PX冲高回落。 资料来源：Wind、光大期货研究所 热点栏目 自 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月26日 【原油】 昨日外盘因圣诞假期休市，内盘油价震荡运行。俄罗斯黑海港口码头遇袭，恶劣天气导致维修进度 缓慢，哈萨克斯坦12月CPC混合原油出口将降至14个月最低水平。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动 虽降至数年新低，然而由于产量调整存在时滞，美国原油产量仍维持在年内高位。美委地缘冲突一 度引发市场对原油供应中断担忧,然基本面宽松主基调未改,她缘犹动更倾向于提供阶段性反弹动 力,警惕市场交易焦点由地缘局势升级切换至由远期供需宽松格局所主导的"价格中枢下移"这一 核心逻辑。 【责金属】 隔夜外盘圣诞节休市,国内金银延续偏强趋势,广期所调整街翘最小开仓数量和交易限额规则。迈 期美联储宽松前景以及地缘风险支撑贵金属强势，各品种陆续刷新新高形成共振突破行情，短期市 场波动率放大,注意仓位控制。 【铜】 隔夜沪铜夜盘高开,短线拉涨到9.8万。强调国内现货背离信号转强,沪粤贴水分别扩至330、185 元，SMM社库增加2.52万吨至19.36万吨。短线国内现货供求给予铜价更大调整压力。但同时需求淡 季下,原料紧张可能向国内精铜传导,且价差利 ...

芳烃日报：产业链边际虽有改善，但淡季存需求疲软预期 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 25 日 苯乙烯方面：12 月 12 日至 18 日，中国苯乙烯工厂整体产量在 34.68 万吨， 较上期+2.38%;工厂产能利用率 69.13%，环比+1.02%。苯乙烯下游 EPS、PS、ABS 消耗量在 26.18 万吨，环比-3.89%。苯乙烯工厂库存在 17.10 万吨，环比上周 -4.23%。截至 12 月 22 日，苯乙烯华东港口库存在 13.93 万吨，环比上周+3.41%; 华南港口库存在 1.1 万吨，环比上周-26.67%。截至 12 月 17 日，苯乙烯非一体 化利润在-203 元/吨。截至 12 月 17 日，苯乙烯一体化利润在 421.08 元/吨。 苯乙烯在第四季度检修较多，港口库存去化，但根据行业往期规律来看，1-3 月属于需求淡季，季节性累库的可能性较大。 【宏观面分析】 【冠通期货研究报告】 【基本面分析】 纯苯方面：己内酰胺生产利润-350 元/吨(-40)，酚酮生产利润-927 元/吨 (+0)，苯胺生产利润 789 元/吨(+178)，己二酸生产利润-1018 元/吨(-11)。己 ...

行业总览 宏观日报 | 2025-12-25 关注上游价格分化，中游开工淡季 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）在24日下午举行的国新办新闻发布会上，交通运输部公路局局长周荣峰表示，明年，交通运输部计 划部署开展高速公路服务区提质升级专项行动，重点抓好五项工作，其中首要工作就是着力提升充电服务保障能 力，加快推动高速公路服务区充电设施建设和更新改造，提升大功率的充电设施数量。 服务行业：1）北京市住房和城乡建设委员会等4部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》， 自2025年12月24日起施行。《通知》明确，一是放宽非京籍家庭购房条件。将非京籍家庭购买五环内商品住房的社 保或个税缴纳年限，由现行的"3年"调减为"2年"；购买五环外商品住房的，由现行的"2年"调减为"1年"。二是支持 多子女家庭住房需求。二孩及以上的多子女家庭，可在五环内多购买一套商品住房。2）央行持续加码中长期资金 投放，中期借贷便利（MLF）连续10个月加量续做。中国人民银行12月24日发布中期借贷便利招标公告称，为保 持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年12月25日，将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展4000亿元MLF操 ...