化工日报 | 2025-05-22 PTA装置陆续重启,关注成本支撑 市场要闻与数据 在原油上涨和主流供应商减合约消息下，周三PTA期货震荡上行，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差企稳。 市场分析 成本端，市场近期关注点在宏观和地缘上反复切换，目前暂无消息指引，油价拉锯盘整，继续关注美伊核谈和俄 乌谈判方面进展。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解近期有所反弹，但季节性表现仍弱于前两年。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。3~5月上旬韩国出口 到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复情况。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN258美元/吨(环比变动-13.25美元/吨）。近期近期宏观利好提振，同时多套px装置计划外 损失增加，进一步收紧PX近月供需预期，市场货源偏紧，加之窗口内PX买气活跃，外商挺价积极，进一步支撑价 格上行，PXN低位反弹，当前已脱离低估值水平。后续5月国内PX检修装置将陆续重启，供应预计有所增加，但PTA 新装置投产下PX延续去库。整体来看，短期市场情绪好转和计划外检修增多下PXN反弹明 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The market's focus has been shifting between macro and geopolitical factors, with oil prices in a range - bound consolidation. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear talks and the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [2] - The gasoline crack has rebounded recently, but its seasonal performance is still weaker than in the previous two years. The aromatics blending demand for gasoline is not promising this year, and the intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha [2] - PXN has rebounded from a low level due to macro - level positive factors and unexpected losses of multiple PX plants. In May, domestic PX maintenance plants will gradually restart, and PX will continue to draw down inventory under the commissioning of new PTA plants [2] - The PTA spot basis has weakened, and the processing fees have declined. With the high - operation of downstream polyester plants, PTA will continue to draw down inventory significantly in May. As the PTA price rebounds, the maintenance of PTA plants is postponed, and the supply will gradually return [3] - The polyester operating rate has increased, and downstream orders have improved after the positive progress of the China - US negotiations and tariff reduction. The inventory of filament has decreased significantly, and the average monthly polyester load in May may increase instead of decrease [3] - The spot processing fee of polyester bottle - chips has increased, and the market supply is gradually rising, which may put pressure on the market price. Attention should be paid to the maintenance news of bottle - chip plants due to rising costs [4] - After the continuous and rapid rise, the current valuations of PXN and PTA are no longer at low levels, and the market sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the downstream negative feedback and the support from the crude oil cost side [5] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main - contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main - contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various types of warehouse receipts for PTA, PX, and PF [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It includes figures on the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of various filament products, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][60] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover the load of polyester staple fiber, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories, and the operating rates and processing fees of related yarns [71][73][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the load of polyester bottle - chips, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and various price spreads [91][93][99]

| 《八八 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月20日 | | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ななな | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | ななな | PX | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ななな | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 王雪忆 分析师 | | 统威 | ☆☆☆ 瓶片 | | ななな | F03125010 | | | | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇】 甲醇主力合约连续回落。国内多套装置复产,供应压力的显著增多对行情产生较大压制,生产 ...

Group 1 - The current bullish sentiment in the market is strong, particularly in the chemical futures sector, which continues to lead the gains [1] - Styrene prices are supported by tight spot liquidity due to maintenance, although they are still constrained by the low prices of pure benzene [1] - Short-term PTA spot prices are fluctuating strongly in line with the robust cost side [1]

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-05-07 纯苯港口库存仍未兑现上升 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存12.00万吨（+0.00万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费129美元/吨（-3美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费107美元/吨（-3美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差97.5美元/吨（+15.0美元/吨），仍处于关闭状态。华东纯苯现货-M2价 差-35元/吨（+60元/吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差186元/吨（-26元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润30元/吨（+87元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存68500吨（-16700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存53500吨（-4700吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯 开工率70.5%（+2.6%）。 上游原油价格大幅波动，中美关税政策变化，对美国乙烷的关税动态 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润516元/吨（-11元/吨），PS生产利润-9元/吨（+14元/吨），ABS生产利润957元/吨（-168 元/吨）。EPS开工率48.73%（-8.31%），PS开工率58.70%（+0.00%）， ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 7 日 对二甲苯：月差正套，加工费扩张 PTA：多 PTA 空 SC MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | PX主力收盘 | PTA主力收盘 | MEG主力收盘 | PF主力收盘 | SC主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-06 | 6130 | 4362 | 4130 | 6138 | 3328 | | 2025-04-30 | 6212 | 4434 | 4155 | 6160 | 3394 | | 2025-04-29 | 6206 | 4440 | 4187 | 6184 | 3456 | | 2025-04-28 | 6294 | 4480 | 4190 | 6176 | 3529 | | 2025-04-25 | 6230 | 4400 | 4160 | 6046 | 3477 | | 日度变化 | -1.3% | -1.6% | -0.6% | -0.4% | -1.9% | | 月 差 | PX（9-1） | PTA(6 ...

期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025年05月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 对二甲苯：成本坍塌，加工费扩张 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PTA空SC | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡承压 | 6 | | 沥青：跟随油价走弱，裂解有望继续上修 | 8 | | LLDPE：趋势偏弱 | 10 | | PP：价格小跌，成交转淡 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡 | 15 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 17 | | 甲醇：弱势运行 | 19 | | 尿素：震荡运行，下方支撑增加 | 21 | | 苯乙烯：偏弱震荡 | 23 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：原油支撑走弱，关注月间正套 | 25 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 28 | | 燃料油：外盘现货大幅下跌，短期继续转弱 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：跟随原油小幅回调，外盘高低硫价差走阔 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：低位震荡，10-12反套 ...

化工日报 | 2025-04-29 近端供应减少，PTA基差走强 核心观点 市场要闻与整体供需逻辑 基本面方面，特朗普对中国关税态度有所缓和，但问题依旧没有有效解决，直接出口美国的纺服订单依然处于暂 停状态，聚酯减产预期压制市场心态，关注后续中美谈判情况，PX和PTA依然维持低估值和去库状态，但在汽油 弱势和需求预期偏弱的情况下反弹幅度也有限，近期在个别工厂接仓单消息下5-9月差走强，关注原油和宏观变动。 短纤方面，当前美国关税逐步向好发展，市场心态走稳，但追高意愿不足，五一期间部分纱厂有放假计划，原料 囤货意愿一般，行情维持震荡盘整。PR方面，关税政策对瓶片自身需求影响较小，但瓶片负荷回归高位，瓶片工 厂加工区间有限，市场价格预计仍跟随原料成本波动。 市场分析 成本端，当前供需面多空消息交织，一方面宏观影响油价走势。美伊及俄乌地缘政治风险降温。同时多个OPEC+ 成员国计划在6月会议上提议加快增产速度，原油供应压力持续。汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解偏弱运行，中长期基 本面预期依然偏弱，3月以来韩国出口美国芳烃环比大幅减少, 整体成本端整体支撑作用有限。 风险 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 29 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 MEG： 多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-04-25 | 6230 | 4400 | 4160 | 6046 | 3477 | | 2025-04-24 | 6166 | 4370 | 4179 | 6028 | 3446 | | 2025-04-23 | 6224 | 4408 | 4250 | 6092 | 3507 | | 2025-04-22 | 6050 | 4306 | 4180 | 5982 | 3456 | | 2025-04-21 | 6110 | 4350 | 4205 | 6010 | 3419 | | 日度变化 | 1.0 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年4月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强后回落。贸易商商谈为主，个别主流供应商报盘。 5月主港在09升水80~140成交，个别偏高在09升水150有成交，个别5月上主港在05升水20成交，价格商谈区间在4555~4620附 近。今日主流现货基差在09+105。中性 2、基差：现货4570，05合约基差90，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.39天，环比增加0.03天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：PTA自身装 ...