Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, in the short term, the spot price is expected to fluctuate mainly due to low processing margins, some plant overhauls, and the lack of cost - side support from oil prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine ceasefire and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - For MEG, the market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with obvious downside support, as the arrival volume is at a low level, port inventory is expected to remain low, and demand is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of polyester load and commodity trends [6]. - The industry has both positive and negative factors. Positives include planned PTA plant overhauls in August and the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Negatives are the continued pressure on profit margins in each link of the industrial chain and the cautious overall operation atmosphere. The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the cost side and the upper resistance level of the market rebound [8]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - **PTA**: Yesterday, due to the unexpected shutdown of a 5 million - ton PTA plant in South China, the PTA futures price rose significantly, driving up the entire polyester - chain futures market. The downstream polyester sales also improved slightly. The spot basis first rose and then weakened. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 7. The PTA factory inventory is 3.71 days, a 0.05 - day increase from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above it. The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. In the short term, the spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the basis will also show interval fluctuations [5]. - **MEG**: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol remained high, and the basis was stable. The intraday disk fluctuated slightly. The spot negotiation was around a premium of 88 - 92 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The inventory in East China decreased by 26,900 tons to 500,500 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above it. The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing. In the short term, the market is expected to be slightly bullish, and the port inventory is expected to remain low in August - September [6][7]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol's operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand situation and inventory changes [10]. 5.价格相关 - There are multiple price - related charts, including the spot price of bottle chips, production margin, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA and MEG's inter - month spreads, basis, and the spot spread between TA and EG, as well as the processing margin of p - xylene [12][15][18][22][25][28][35]. 6.库存分析 - There are inventory - related charts, such as the PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET slice factory inventory, and the inventory days of various polyester products in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [38][40][43]. 7.聚酯上下游开工 - There are charts showing the upstream and downstream operating rates of polyester, including the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [49][53]. 8.加工费与利润 - There are charts about the PTA processing fee and the profits of MEG produced by different methods, as well as the production margins of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) [57][60][63].

Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) - Styrene: ★★★ - Polypropylene: ★★★ - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor) - PVC: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish/bearish trend and the market is fermenting) - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ - PX: ★★★ - PTA: ★★★ - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ - Glass: ★★★ - Soda Ash: ★★★ - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market has different trends. Propylene futures are under pressure, and polyolefin futures are boosted by macro factors but face supply and demand challenges [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market is affected by news of potential over - capacity solutions, with significant price fluctuations in pure benzene and a consolidating pattern in styrene [3]. - The polyester market, including PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle chips, is influenced by over - capacity news, with different supply - demand and price trends [5]. - The coal - chemical market, including methanol and urea, has its own supply - demand characteristics and is affected by market sentiment and export news [6]. - The chlor - alkali market, including PVC and caustic soda, shows different price trends due to supply - demand differences [7]. - The soda ash - glass market is in a weak situation, with high inventory in the soda ash industry and continued decline in glass prices [8]. Summary by Category Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures closed up but below the 5 - day moving average, with sufficient supply and insufficient downstream follow - up. Polyolefin futures were boosted by macro factors. Polyethylene has supply pressure and slow - growing demand, while polypropylene has supply support but slow - recovering demand [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated greatly due to news of potential over - capacity solutions. There is a possibility of seasonal improvement in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. Styrene futures are in a consolidating pattern, with cost support but limited downstream demand [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices rebounded due to over - capacity news. There is an expected improvement in PX supply - demand in the third quarter. Ethylene glycol has profit - repair potential. Short - fiber and bottle chips are driven by raw materials, with different supply - demand situations [5]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol prices stopped falling and rebounded, with high port inventory and weak coastal supply - demand. Urea prices are affected by market sentiment and export news, with a loose short - term supply - demand situation [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC is in a weak operation, with increased export pressure and high inventory. Caustic soda is strong in the short term due to replenishment demand but faces long - term supply pressure [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices dropped significantly, with high inventory throughout the industry. Glass prices continued to decline, with weak demand and high production capacity [8].

Core Insights - The launch of pure benzene futures on July 8 has introduced new risk management dynamics to the aromatic industry chain, with strong participation from production and trading companies [1][2] Industry Overview - China is the largest producer and consumer of pure benzene, with a production capacity of 32.34 million tons and an output of 25.13 million tons in 2024, accounting for 39% of global production. The apparent consumption is 29.26 million tons, representing 43% of global consumption [2] - Despite rapid capacity expansion, profit margins in the industry have been squeezed, with average production profits dropping by 64% year-on-year to 787 yuan per ton [2] Market Participation - The introduction of pure benzene futures has led to increased interest from companies in risk management tools, with firms exploring various application models based on their specific needs [2][3] - Companies like 富海集团 and 江苏利士德化工有限公司 are actively participating in futures trading, utilizing strategies such as basis trading and arbitrage [3] Trading Activity - As of August 19, pure benzene futures have recorded a trading volume of 518,900 contracts and a total transaction value of 96.52 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 16,700 contracts [4] - The liquidity of the futures market is expected to improve as more companies engage in hedging and trading activities [5][6] Risk Management Benefits - The availability of pure benzene futures allows companies to manage inventory and respond proactively to market changes, reducing reliance on indirect hedging through other products [4] - Companies are increasingly shifting from high-risk paper markets to standardized and regulated futures markets for better security and transparency [5][6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face downward pressure overall. However, there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. It is recommended to go long on the soda ash main contract at low levels [2]. - For glass, the current price is still relatively high. If it falls to around 1100 yuan, there may be a rebound opportunity if there is an interest rate cut. It is recommended to go long on the glass main contract at low levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1358 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1196 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - Soda ash main contract position is 1428848 hands, up 29928 hands; glass main contract position is 1196462 hands, up 81442 hands [2]. - Soda ash 9 - month to 1 - month contract spread is - 113 yuan, up 1 yuan; glass 9 - month to 1 - month contract spread is - 176 yuan, up 6 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 106 yuan, up 9 yuan; glass basis is - 112 yuan, up 16 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash price is 1280 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash price is 1325 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash price is 1265 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; Central China light soda ash price is 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass large plate price is 1084 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China glass large plate price is 1110 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 87.32%, up 1.91 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.34%, up 2.34 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production line number is 223, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 189.73 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6342.6 million heavy boxes, up 157.9 million heavy boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 35206 million square meters, up 4841.68 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 25034 million square meters, up 2467.39 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang chaired the ninth plenary meeting of the State Council, aiming to stimulate consumption potential and stabilize the real - estate market [2]. - In July, the prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed overall [2].

Report Summary Report Date August 18, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and investment outlooks of various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and the container shipping index (European line). Each commodity has its own specific market conditions and trends, with different investment suggestions and trend intensities [2][11][12]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, but terminal demand is improving. The processing fee is downward, but the improvement in terminal demand may limit the downside space of the single - sided price. The trend intensity is 0 [11]. - **PTA**: Demand is improving month - on - month, and the single - sided price has turned into a volatile market. The 9 - 1 month spread is expected to continue the reverse spread strategy. The polyester start - up rate is increasing, and the supply is relatively stable. The trend intensity is 0 [12]. - **MEG**: Supply and demand are both increasing. The single - sided price of ethylene glycol is in a volatile market. The 9 - 1 month spread should be operated within the range of - 50 to 0, and a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy can be adopted. The overall supply is at a high level, and the inventory is accumulating. The trend intensity is 0 [12][13]. Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a volatile operation. The trading volume and open interest in the futures market have increased, and the spot price of some varieties has changed slightly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upside space is narrowing. In the short term, the increase in butadiene arrivals weakens the support for the synthetic rubber industry chain. In the medium term, it is still in a range - bound market. The trend intensity is 0 [19][21]. Asphalt - **Asphalt**: The shipment is not good, and it is difficult for crude oil to be bullish. The production has decreased slightly, and the inventory in both factories and social warehouses has decreased. It follows the oil price in a range - bound market. The trend intensity is 0 [22][36]. LLDPE - **LLDPE**: It is in a range - bound market. The cost is decreasing due to the decline in crude oil prices. The supply pressure is increasing, but the demand is expected to improve in the later stage. The inventory is at a relatively low level year - on - year and has stopped accumulating. The trend intensity is 0 [37][38]. PP - **PP**: The trend is weak, but short - selling at low levels should be cautious. The cost is weak, the demand has no obvious bright spots, and the supply pressure is increasing. However, there is still uncertainty in the cost, and the low - level short - selling should be vigilant. The trend intensity is 0 [41][42]. Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: It should be treated bullishly. The demand is continuously expanding, especially the demand from the alumina industry. The export support is still strong, but the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries may limit the profit expansion. The trend intensity is 1 [47][48]. Pulp - **Pulp**: It is in a volatile operation. The port inventory is decreasing, and the international and domestic pulp mills have raised prices. The downstream product capacity utilization rate is rising, and the demand provides stable support. The trend intensity is 0 [50][53][54]. Glass - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot price has declined slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general. The trend intensity is - 1 [55][56]. Methanol - **Methanol**: It is under short - term downward pressure in a volatile market, but the downside space is narrowing. The port inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the 01 contract is weak in the short term. In the medium term, it is still in a volatile pattern. The trend intensity is - 1 [58][61]. Urea - **Urea**: It is in a range - bound operation. The enterprise inventory has increased, and the domestic demand is weak. In the short term, the market is reluctant to short - sell at the support level. In the long term, it is recommended to short - sell at high levels when the policy is clear. The trend intensity is 0 [63][65][66]. Styrene - **Styrene**: The profit is being compressed. The market is mainly volatile, with strong downstream bottom - fishing sentiment in the short term, but the continuous replenishment power in the peak season is insufficient. The trend intensity is 0 [67][68]. Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The price is oscillating at a low level, the supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is tepid. The trend intensity is - 1 [69][71]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term valuation is reasonable, and it is in a volatile operation. - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are tightening, and the price has certain support. The trend intensity of both is 0 [74][80]. PVC - **PVC**: The trend is weak. The production is at a high level, the demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the export competitiveness is affected by the anti - dumping tax. The strategy should be bearish, and the opportunity of long caustic soda and short PVC can be concerned. The trend intensity is - 1 [83][84]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The futures price has a slight rebound, and the short - term weakness continues. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has risen, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market has slightly rebounded. The trend intensity of both is 0 [86]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is in a volatile consolidation, and the short positions in the October contract can be held as appropriate. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in the shipping index have declined. The trend intensity is not provided in the text [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating is neutral; the recommendation for the PL01 - 02 inter - period is reverse arbitrage; there is no recommendation for cross - variety [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - side start - up has increased slightly month - on - month. Although the maintenance plan of Shandong Zhenhua previously supported prices, the new production capacity of a 280,000 - ton K - COT device in Shandong was released, and the Tianhong PDH device is expected to restart. With the continuous increase in supply, the propylene price continued to be weakly sorted. The downstream start - up showed a mixed trend. The profit of propylene oxide dropped significantly, and its start - up also declined. The start - up of butanol decreased significantly, while the start - up of octanol increased rapidly. The start - up of the main downstream PP increased slightly, but the purchasing enthusiasm was not strong, and the start - up of the PP downstream was also weak. Overall, the downstream demand for propylene provided a small - scale, phased support, but the resilience was still insufficient. Later, attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of the main downstream industries during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The cost of crude oil weakened, and the decline in Saudi CP drove down the propane price, resulting in a downward shift in the cost support for propylene [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the propylene basis in East China and North China, the propylene 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices of propylene in East China and Shandong [7][10][13] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It covers figures on the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the capacity utilization of the main crude oil refineries [18][25][32] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents figures on the price differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39] 3.4 Profit and Capacity Utilization of Propylene Downstream Industries - It includes figures on the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][42][56][65] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The report has figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67][68]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is rated as neutral [3] Core View - The EG price is fluctuating without a clear driving force. In the spot and futures markets, the closing price of the EG main contract and the spot price in the East China market both decreased slightly. The production profit of ethylene - made EG and coal - made syngas EG increased slightly. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly. The domestic supply is on an increasing trend, but overseas device operation is not smooth, and the increase in port inventory is lower than expected. The overall supply - demand contradiction in August is not significant [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,406 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton (-0.59%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot price in the East China market was 4,488 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton (-0.40%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot basis in the East China market (based on the 2509 contract) was 76 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 46 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The production profit of coal - made syngas EG was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. Domestically, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Non - coal EO - EG co - production devices have actions/plans to switch from EO to EG, with a moderately high overall load [1][2] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on international price differences are provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - In July, the terminal conducted centralized restocking, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 55.3 tons, an increase of 3.7 tons from the previous period. According to Longzhong data, it was 48.6 tons, an increase of 5.9 tons from the previous period. The total actual arrival at the main ports last week was 9.6 tons, and the port inventory increased slightly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 14.1 tons, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory slightly. The balance sheet in August shows a slight inventory accumulation, but the increase in port inventory lacks sustainability [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, under continuous low processing margins, there have been more changes in PTA plants recently. However, in terms of price, the cost side lacks support and the downstream polyester demand is average during the off - season. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term and the spot basis will stabilize, with attention to subsequent PTA plant and downstream polyester load changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory will be adjusted widely this month, and the increase is not sustainable. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol will be basically balanced from August to September, and the demand support will gradually strengthen over time. The fundamental structure of ethylene glycol is neutral to positive, and it is expected that the short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol will be strong, with attention to plant changes [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the content 3.2. Daily Reminders - Not provided in the content 3.3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA - **Price**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, with individual polyester factories replenishing goods. The spot basis was stable. The price negotiation range of August goods was around 4,675 - 4,710, and today's mainstream spot basis is 09 - 13. The processing fee decreased from 439.48 yuan/ton to 154.49 yuan/ton [5][12]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The PTA supply - demand balance table shows the production, consumption, and inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, with fluctuations in supply and demand and inventory [10]. MEG - **Price**: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened. The spot negotiation was around a premium of 75 - 78 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The price of ethylene glycol in the night session fluctuated narrowly. The internal - market price index of ethylene glycol decreased from 4,202 yuan/ton to 4,482 yuan/ton [7][12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance table shows the production, consumption, and inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, with changes in supply and demand and inventory [11]. 3.5. PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday, with average spot market negotiation and stable basis [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,692, and the 09 contract basis is 0, indicating the spot price is at par with the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory decreased, showing a bullish signal [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Expectation**: The PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will stabilize [5]. 3.6. MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened on Wednesday, with average market negotiation [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,488, and the 09 contract basis is 82, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The East China port inventory increased, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Expectation**: The port inventory will be adjusted widely this month, and the supply - demand structure will be basically balanced from August to September. The short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol is expected to be strong [6]. 3.7. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Some PTA plants are planned for maintenance in August, which is expected to improve the supply - demand situation [8]. - **Negative Factors**: At the demand end, with the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand, the terminal demand is definitely weakening [8]. 3.8. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9].

Group 1: Methanol Market Analysis - The methanol market is experiencing stable supply due to reduced maintenance plans by methanol companies, despite general downstream demand support being weak [1] - Market pressure is increasing with port inventories continuing to accumulate, leading to a short-term consolidation phase [1] - Support levels are identified at 2350 - 2370, while resistance is noted at 2430 - 2450 [1] Group 2: PVC Market Analysis - The PVC market is facing insufficient cost support, with industry operating rates recovering and supply being ample [1] - Weak demand has led to a significant increase in social inventory, resulting in a lack of fundamental drivers for price movement [1] - Support levels are observed at 4950 - 4960, with resistance at 5100 - 5150 [1] Group 3: Urea Market Analysis - Urea production remains high, leading to ample supply but insufficient demand, which continues to exert pressure on the market [1] - There is a cautious expectation for demand improvement, with support levels at 1680 - 1700 and potential resistance at 1800 - 1830 [1] - The market is currently in a low-level consolidation phase [1] Group 4: Caustic Soda Market Analysis - Caustic soda companies are maintaining decent profitability, but high capacity utilization is leading to increased supply [1] - Downstream demand is limited, resulting in continuous accumulation of plant inventories [1] - Support levels are identified at 2400 - 2430, with resistance at 2530 - 2550 [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral, with attention on the cost side of crude oil and macro - sentiment changes [4] 2) Core Viewpoints - **Cost - end**: Attention should be paid to the US - Russia leaders' meeting on August 15th, Trump's stance on sanctions against Russia, and the attitude towards extending tariffs on China on August 12th. In the medium - term, as global refineries reach the peak of annual operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift between strength and weakness. With new supplies from Latin America and the North Sea entering the market, the oil market will decline in the second half of the year, unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia [1] - **PX**: The PXN was $261/ton (a month - on - month change of - $8.50/ton). China's PX load will gradually recover, and with the commissioning of MX, the supply is abundant. The PX supply is expected to increase, but the increase is limited. The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to a loose balance, but PX is still in a low - inventory state. There is support at the lower end of PXN, but the floating price of PX has recently shown signs of weakness [1] - **TA**: The spot basis of the TA main contract is - 12 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 6 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 171 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 7 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 372 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 2 yuan/ton). Due to the concentrated raw material replenishment by terminal weaving, the inventory pressure of filament has been significantly reduced, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. However, major suppliers are actively selling, which suppresses prices. PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August, and the circulating supply is abundant with the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts [2] - **Demand**: The polyester operating rate is 88.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.7%). Driven by the anti - involution sentiment in late July, terminal weaving concentrated on raw material replenishment, and the weaving and texturing loads rebounded. But the demand has not improved substantially, and it is just a transfer of inventory. The industry is still facing poor orders and inventory build - up. The weaving load decreased again this week, waiting for the improvement of seasonal peak - season orders, which may start gradually in late August. The polyester load remains strong in the short term, with a slight increase this week. For different products, the pressure on cotton - type short - fiber factories is acceptable, while the pressure on hollow and low - melting - point products is relatively large, with a slight reduction in production. After the phased destocking of filament inventory, the short - term production reduction pressure is relieved, and the load may even be increased. For bottle chips, the maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been gradually implemented, and the load is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a possible increase in late August or September [2] - **PF**: The spot production profit is 78 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 36 yuan/ton). Due to the high inventory of yarn mills and limited improvement in downstream orders, market confidence is still lacking, and the processing margin remains in the range of 900 - 1000 yuan/ton. The demand for PF has improved slightly but is still limited, and the near - month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts [3] - **PR**: The spot processing fee for bottle chips is 407 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 25 yuan/ton). It is reported that the main polyester bottle - chip factories will continue to maintain production reduction or shutdown in August, with no plans to increase or restart production for the time being. The bottle - chip load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the spot processing fee for bottle chips is expected to recover as the production reduction and shutdown are extended [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][35] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rates, and filament profits [51][53][62] PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type short - fiber load, pure - polyester yarn operating rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][79][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [87][90][94]