Core Viewpoints - The current macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with some companies facing operational pressures while positive trends in consumption, industry, and capital markets are emerging [2] Employment Issues - The total number of employees in manufacturing listed companies reached 16.01 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, down from 4.1% in the previous year [4][14] - Employment growth is primarily driven by the automotive manufacturing and computer communication electronics sectors, which contributed nearly all of the employment increase [4][14] Income Distribution - The average salary in the manufacturing sector is projected to be 176,000 yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, aligning closely with the growth rate of urban residents' disposable income [5][20] - The ratio of manufacturing average salary to financial industry salary has increased, reaching its highest level since 2012, indicating a favorable environment for talent influx into manufacturing [5][20] Profitability Issues - Manufacturing companies are experiencing profitability pressure, with operating profit declining by 12.2% year-on-year in 2024, and the operating profit margin dropping from 6.6% in 2023 to 5.7% in 2024 [6][24] - The profitability pressure index for the industrial sector has risen to 10.5%, indicating increased pressure compared to 7.7% in 2023 [6][25] Investment Returns - The estimated investment return for manufacturing listed companies is approximately 5.4% in 2024, down from 6.4% in the previous year, marking a decline in absolute levels [7][33] - Despite the overall decline, certain sectors such as leather, computer communication electronics, and general equipment have shown a rebound in investment returns [7][33] Asset and Liability Issues - Total assets of manufacturing listed companies grew by 5.1% year-on-year in 2024, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years [8][36] - The asset-liability ratio has continued to rise, reaching 52% in 2024, indicating increasing debt levels [8][36] Cash Flow - The accounts receivable turnover days increased to 57.1 days in 2024, indicating greater collection pressure [9][45] - The growth rate of monetary funds for non-financial A-share companies turned negative at -1.9% in 2024, with manufacturing experiencing a significant decline to -2.8% [9][45] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for manufacturing listed companies decreased by 11.1% year-on-year in 2024, contrasting with a growth of 3.4% in the previous year [10][48] - Newly listed companies have shown a significant increase in capital expenditure, with a growth rate of 23.7% in 2023-2024, indicating a divergence from established firms [10][48] Financing Issues - The growth rate of interest-bearing debt for manufacturing listed companies slowed to 6.8% in 2024, continuing a trend of deceleration since 2022 [11][57] - The interest burden has decreased, with the ratio of interest expenses to interest-bearing debt falling to 3.36% in 2024, indicating a reduction in debt servicing costs [11][57]

Employment Insights - The total number of employees in manufacturing listed companies reached 16.01 million in 2024, growing by 3.3% year-on-year, a slight decrease from 4.1% in the previous year[2] - The automotive manufacturing and computer communication electronics sectors contributed nearly all employment growth, adding 320,000 and 180,000 employees respectively[2] - The electrical machinery sector saw a decline of 51,000 employees in 2024[2] Income Distribution - Average salary in manufacturing listed companies was 176,000 yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, aligning closely with the 4.6% growth in urban disposable income[3] - The ratio of manufacturing average salary to financial industry salary increased to 0.454, the highest since 2012, indicating a favorable trend for talent inflow into manufacturing[3] - The labor compensation ratio in manufacturing listed companies rose to 9.9% in 2024, the highest since 2012[3] Profitability Challenges - Manufacturing listed companies experienced a 12.2% decline in operating profit in 2024, worsening from an 11.1% decline in the previous year[4] - The operating profit margin fell from 6.6% in 2023 to 5.7% in 2024[4] - The profitability pressure index increased to 10.5% in 2024, up from 7.7% in 2023, but lower than the 15% seen in 2015[4] Investment Returns - The estimated investment return for manufacturing listed companies was 5.4% in 2024, down from 6.4% in 2023, marking a decline below 2014 levels[5] - Seven industries, including leather and computer communication electronics, saw a rebound in investment returns despite the overall decline[5] Financial Health - Total assets of manufacturing listed companies grew by 5.1% in 2024, a slowdown from 8.4% in the previous year[6] - The asset-liability ratio increased to 52% in 2024, continuing a three-year upward trend[7] Cash Flow Issues - The accounts receivable turnover days increased to 57.1 days in 2024, the second-highest since 2012, indicating heightened collection pressure[7] - The growth rate of monetary funds for non-financial A-share companies turned negative at -1.9% in 2024, a significant drop from 4.1% previously[7] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure for manufacturing listed companies fell by 11.1% year-on-year in 2024, contrasting with a 3.4% increase in 2023[8] - Newly listed companies showed a capital expenditure growth of 23.7%, significantly higher than other firms[8] Financing Conditions - Interest-bearing debt for manufacturing listed companies grew by 6.8% in 2024, but the growth rate has been slowing since 2022[9] - The interest burden decreased to 3.36% in 2024 from 3.48% in 2023, indicating a reduction in debt pressure[9]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI in March increased by 0.3 points to 50.5, marking two consecutive months of improvement[3] - The number of industries in the expansion zone rose from 7 to 8, with the non-ferrous industry entering the contraction zone[3] - The computer communication and electronics sectors saw a significant recovery, with PMI values rising above 50[3] Industry Performance - In March, the computer communication electronics sector's PMI surged by 12.8 points, reaching a new high since June 2017[5] - The chemical, textile, and apparel sectors showed leading performance, while raw materials and agricultural products remained weak due to commodity price adjustments[3][5] - The pharmaceutical sector's new orders and export orders showed strong growth, with increases of 6.4% and 14.4% respectively[4] Emerging Industries - The "AI+" trend significantly boosted the performance of new generation information technology, with a PMI increase of 27.1 points[6] - High-end equipment manufacturing and new materials also saw substantial increases of 16.4 points and 9.0 points respectively[6] - The new energy vehicle sector's PMI rose by 8.1 points, reflecting the impact of supportive policies[6] Construction and Real Estate - The construction PMI rose by 0.7 points to 53.4, with residential construction showing a notable increase of 11.8 points[10] - Real estate activity indicators, including new orders and expectations, also improved, indicating a recovery in the sector[10] - The construction sector's performance remains below the levels seen at the end of 2024, particularly in residential and civil engineering[8] Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased by 0.3 points to 50.3, driven by improvements in productive services[10] - Water transportation and telecommunications sectors reported PMIs above 60, while the restaurant and ecological sectors experienced declines[11] - Financial services remained strong, supported by increased credit to private and small enterprises[10]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in March increased by 0.3 points to 50.5, indicating a continued improvement in the macroeconomic environment, with the number of industries in the expansion zone rising from 7 to 8 [1][5][6]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The computer communication electronics industry reached a PMI close to 60, the highest since June 2017, driven by consumer upgrades and equipment renewal [1][6]. - The textile and apparel industry showed significant improvement, with related sectors like chemical fiber and plastics also performing well [1][6]. - The pharmaceutical industry saw a similar recovery compared to the previous year, with strong new and export orders [1][6][7]. Group 2: External Demand - Export orders for the computer communication electronics and textile industries increased by 10.8 and 20.7 points respectively, correlating with the rise in industry PMIs [2][8]. - Despite increasing global de-globalization, export orders remain resilient, with some industries possibly experiencing "export rush" [2][8]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - The "AI+" trend significantly boosted the new generation information technology sector, with a notable increase in high-end equipment manufacturing and new materials [2][10]. - The new energy vehicle sector saw an 8.1-point increase in PMI, reflecting the benefits of new policies [2][10]. - The emerging service industries, particularly business consulting and elder care, showed the highest PMIs, indicating strong demand driven by policy support [2][10][11]. Group 4: Construction and Real Estate - The construction PMI rose by 0.7 points to 53.4, with residential construction showing an 11.8-point increase, outperforming civil engineering and construction [3][11][12]. - The real estate sector's operational indicators, including new orders and expectations, improved in March, suggesting a recovery in the sales front [3][11][12]. Group 5: Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased by 0.3 points to 50.3, with improvements in productive service industries such as water transport and IT services [3][14]. - Financial services remained strong, supported by increased credit to private and small enterprises [3][14].

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第六， 2月服务业PMI环比下降0.3个点至50。航空、邮政、信息服务、生态环保景气领先；景气偏低的行业 集中在两类，一类是生产性服务业（租赁商务、道路运输、水上运输、批发），一类是与居民线下消费（住 宿、餐饮），统计局在解读中提到与"节后假日效应消退"等因素有关 [2] 。从过去几个月来看，2024年12 月服务业PMI环比大幅上行，其中包含资本市场相关行业的高位、生产性服务业的活跃；1月受春节前居民生 活半径扩张影响，与居民出行相关的交通运输服务业、住宿餐饮服务业景气环比明显改善。2月节假日效应消 退，叠加部分行业工作日较短（元宵节位于2月12日），因此出现较集中的环比下行。 第一， 随着节后复工推进，2025年2月制造业PMI环比上行1.1个点至50.2。 在经历了1月的季节性回落 后，经济景气重回2024年9月以来的修复趋势，绝对景气度略高于2024年12月的50.1。 中观景气面同步改 善，15个细分制造业行业中共7个位于景气扩张，好于2025年1月的5个，持平于2024年12月。 第二， 从行业景气度 ...