S1130525070007 1 • 本周（2025/08/11-2025/08/15，下同），沪深300上涨2.37%，主动股票及偏股混合基金整体测算股票仓位上升1.18%，至87.68%。 风险提示：测算模型失效风险；重仓股补全与实际差异较大风险；基金持仓、久期大幅度偏离的风险。基金相关信息及数据仅作为基金研究 使用，不作为募集材料或者宣传材料；本文涉及所有基金历史业绩均不代表未来表现 2 • 本周主动股票及偏股混合型基金前5大行业：电子（12.91%）、电力设备（8.38%）、医药生物（7.11%）、通信（6.95%）、汽车（6.19%）。 • 加仓前3大行业：有色金属(+0.78%）、通信(+0.73%）、非银金融(+0.37%）；减仓前3大行业：食品饮料(-0.43%）、电子(-0.28%）、银行(-0.25%）。 • 本周中债10年期国开债到期收益率上行8bps，中长期纯债整体测算久期中位数上升0.19，至3.79年，位于近5年的1 00.00%分位数。近4周平均久期 中位数为3.67年；本周久期分歧度有所上升，测算久期标准差上升0.28，至2.02年。短期纯债久期中位数上升0.00，至1.20年 ...

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到 先得！ 上周A股三大股指集体创出今年以来新高。在业内机构看来，市场有望维持相对强势，但在指数高位运 行、尝试突破前高的过程中，也可能会经历波动放大、震荡整固的阶段。 部分机构建议围绕风险偏好提升的背景，关注AI、创新药、有色金属、军工、大金融等方向。适逢中 报密集披露期，机械设备、电力设备、非银金融、电子等行业配置机会也值得重视。 影响后市投资大事件： 中信证券：继续聚焦五大强势行业 证监会：进一步加强财务报告信息披露监管 证监会 8月15日发布《上市公司2024年年度财务报告会计监管报告》。证监会表示，将持续跟进审阅发 现的上市公司会计信息披露问题，严格按照规定进行后续监管处理；进一步加强财务报告信息披露监 管，持续完善监管工作机制，提升监管效能。 国家发改委：加快组建国家创业投资引导基金 8月16日，中共国家发展和改革委员会党组在《求是》刊发题为《坚定推动民营经济走高质量发展之 路》的署名文章。文章提出，发挥支持小微企业融资协调工作机制作用，加大对小微民营企业的融资支 持力度。继续支持民营企业股票发行上市、再融资和 ...

上周A股市场反弹，Wind数据显示，截至8月15日，A股两融余额报20626.42亿元，融资余额报20485.99亿元，均创 2015年6月30日以来新高，上周A股市场融资余额增加532.39亿元。 具体来看，上周的5个交易日中，8月11日A股融资余额增加168.41亿元，12日增加81.65亿元，13日增加116.96亿 元，14日增加89.96亿元，15日增加75.42亿元，实现"五连增"。 | 行业 | 两融余额(万元) | 融资余额(万元) | 融资净买入额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (月元) | | SW电子 | 24841617. 52 | 24747692. 91 | 1495742. 75 | | SW非银金融 | 16885668. 86 | 16827905. 30 | 528443.62 | | SW计算机 | 15929920. 24 | 15883923.74 | 411982. 30 | | SW机械设备 | 11159195. 51 | 11124745.01 | 401877. 36 | | SW银行 | 6550151.32 | ...

8月18日，三大股指早盘小幅高开，其中数字经济板块持续上行。截止上午10:00，数字经济ETF(560800)涨1.52%。相关成分股中，寒武纪涨 4.47%、海康威视（002415）涨2.57%、中科曙光（603019）涨1.93%，东方财富（300059）、豪威集团（603501）、中芯国际等小幅跟涨。(所列 示个股信息仅为展示指数成分股构成情况，取自市场公开信息，不构成任何的投资建议，也不代表本公司对任何股票做出的判断或倾向) 上周，A股市场热度进一步上升，创业板指单周上涨8.58%；上证指数上涨1.7%，盘中突破3700点，创下近四年来新高。自今年4月以来，A股已 开启长达4个月的趋势性行情。从行业来看，上周科技股表现较好，涨幅靠前的三个行业分别为通信、电子、非银金融。 风险提示：本处所列示信息仅用于沟通交流之目的，仅供参考，不构成对任何个股的投资建议，也不代表本公司对任何股票做出的判断或倾向。 投资有风险，基金投资需谨慎。 对此，广发证券认为，7月以来A股在全球权益类资产中的赚钱效应突出，海外投资者逐渐意识到提升A股配置比例的重要性。A股作为新兴市场 的重要资产，在非美元资产强于美元资产的资金流动逻 ...

宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 08 月 18 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 7 月非银存款再创同期新高 CPI PPI [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（8 月第 3 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 4) 风险提示：基本面超预期弱化、资本市场预期波动带来恐慌。 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场放量上涨。市场方面，7 月非银存款新增长 规模再创历史同期新高、美元指数偏弱强化内外资金流入，对 市场持续形成支撑，前期出口韧性缓解基本面担忧，7 月信贷 ...

值得注意的是，港股创新药ETF（513120）年内收益率超108%，最新规模超194亿元，不仅是全市场规 模最大创新药ETF，还是年内全市场规模最大的"翻倍基"。该产品跟踪中证香港创新药指数，成分股涵 盖创新药龙头企业，生物制药与化学药权重占比超90%。当前指数市盈率39倍，处于历史41%估值分 位，估值性价比突出，叠加创新药出海加速、行业审批提速等基本面利好，长期配置价值值得关注。 展望后市，机构普遍看好结构性行情演绎。华西证券（002926）表示，居民的消费和投资意愿出现边际 回暖迹象。近期两融余额站上近10年新高，反映个人投资者风险偏好正在持续回升。居民资产配置向权 益类资产不断加速倾斜，居民增量资金入市或将成为本轮行情的重要驱动，仍看好下半年A股市场。 （张舒琳） 中证网讯 近期，受多重利好消息持续催化，港股非银金融板块表现强势，中证港股通非银行金融主题 指数持续上行。作为全市场唯一跟踪该指数的ETF，广发基金旗下港股通非银ETF（513750）同样走势 强劲，截至8月15日收盘，港股通非银ETF近一年收益率达100.65%，实现业绩翻倍。亮眼的业绩受到资 金的广泛关注，截至8月15日，其最新规模超1 ...

牛牛市市旗旗手手再再起起，，上上证证创创99..2244以以来来新新高高 22002255年年88月月1111日日--22002255年年88月月1155日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周A股继续上涨、延续牛市，债市收跌，黄金回落，美股上涨。具体来看，本周市场有以下 几个重要方面 ： 本周A股市场无论是指数点位还是日均成交额，都创年内新高。在指数高点附近连续3日成交 金额超过2万亿元，市场情绪高涨，呈强势姿态。申万一级行业中，通信、电子、非银金融 涨幅居前，银行、钢铁、纺织服装跌幅居前。恒生指数上涨，但A股整体表现强于港股。值 得注意，周五港股通净流入358.76亿元，创近期新高，说明港股的配置热情依然较高。 02 债市方面本周资金面均衡偏松，债市下跌，利率债和信用债均走弱，预计纯债基金收益为 负。资金面上，资金保持均衡有利债券表现。基本面上，本周基本面数据公布较多，通胀数 据显示价格仍在通缩区间，信贷数据偏弱，经济数据显示地产等数据仍偏弱，基本面支撑债 券，但本周市场较少定价基本面数据。从机构交易行为来看，机构可能存在防御性卖出行 为。股债跷跷板、美联储降息概率抬升，风险偏好不利于债市。 03 商品方面，黄 ...

风险提示：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 首先，上周市场围绕贷款贴息政策和国内金融数据展开。财政部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局近日联合印发《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方 案》，明确对个人消费贷款进行财政贴息。这是继前期生育补贴实施后，又一个刺激消费的举措，对提振总需求有直接作用，也是结构性降低居民付息压 力的重要方法。此外，上周公布的金融数据显示，7 月非银金融机构的存款同比大幅增加，而居民存款出现减少。"储蓄搬家"的逻辑得到进一步确认。 上周市场继续反弹，沪指刷新年内高点。沪指上周一路向上反弹，周四盘中创出年内高点后快速回落，但周五迅速收复失地。深圳成指加速反弹，正 在挑战去年四季度的高点。量能方面，上周两市日均量能达到20000 亿元以上，较上周大幅放量。上周市场热点主要集中在TMT 和非银金融。投资风格 方面，中小盘涨幅领先。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指反弹进程延续，正在挑战 2021 年市场高点。沪指上周站上了周线大箱体顶部，这个位置被突破后，已经从压力位转为支撑 位。上周则继续向上攻击，虽然周四有所回调，但整体趋势没有破坏，目前正 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current valuation of convertible bonds is relatively high from the perspective of implied volatility, close to the peak in 2022, and there is a certain risk of short - term callback in the convertible bond index [10][17]. - The A - share market still shows good allocation cost - performance, and the weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market is expected to gradually start. In the convertible bond market, considering the impact of refinancing policies, there is certain support on the demand side under the background of shrinking supply. However, be vigilant about the callback risk as the overall valuation is already at a relatively high level [21]. - In terms of industries, pay attention to popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises represented by "China -字头", and the military industry [22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special and Outlook 3.1.1. Implied Volatility: How about the Current Valuation of Convertible Bonds? - As of this Friday, the closing point of the China Securities Convertible Bond Index reached 475.25, a new high in recent years, with a year - to - date increase of 14.64%, slightly lower than the 16.19% increase of the Wind All - A Index [10]. - The overall implied volatility of convertible bonds has been rising since September 2024 and is now significantly higher than the annual highs since 2018. The implied volatility difference has accelerated its upward trend since April this year and is now above the 95% historical quantile, indicating that the overall valuation of convertible bonds is at a relatively high historical level [10]. - There is a certain differentiation in the valuation of convertible bonds. The valuation of convertible bonds with a parity of 50 - 80 is at a high historical quantile, while that of convertible bonds with a parity greater than 120 is relatively low. Some convertible bonds may still have room for valuation improvement [11]. - The RSJ_60 indicator of the China Securities Convertible Bond Index is currently above the 95% quantile of the past year, suggesting a certain short - term callback risk [17]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the market fluctuated upwards. The A - share market had mixed performance on different days, with various sectors rising and falling. Looking ahead, the A - share market shows good allocation cost - performance. The domestic economic fundamentals are expected to gradually resonate with the capital market [18][21]. - In the convertible bond market, pay attention to the game space of downward revision clauses, be vigilant about the forced redemption risk, and appropriately focus on the short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [21]. - Industries to focus on include popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises, and the military industry [22]. 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. Equity Market Closed Higher - This week, major equity market indices closed higher. The Wind All - A Index rose 2.95%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.55%, and the ChiNext Index rose 8.58%. Market style favored small - cap value stocks [25]. - Among the Shenwan industry indices, 22 industries rose and 9 fell. The communication, electronics, and non - bank finance industries led the gains, while the banking, steel, and textile and apparel industries led the losses [27]. 3.2.2. Convertible Bond Market Closed Higher, and the Premium Rate per 100 Par Value Decreased - This week, the convertible bond market closed higher. The China Securities Convertible Bond Index rose 1.60%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 1.53%, the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 1.71%, the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 2.33%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index rose 1.27% [29]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market increased. The average daily trading volume this week was 93.085 billion yuan, an increase of 8.61 billion yuan compared with last week, and the total weekly trading volume was 465.424 billion yuan [29]. - In terms of industries, 24 convertible bond industries rose and 5 fell. The non - bank finance, communication, and machinery and equipment industries led the gains, while the social services, banking, and national defense and military industries led the losses [34]. - Most individual convertible bonds rose (357 out of 454). The top five gainers were Outong Convertible Bond, Dayuan Convertible Bond, Jintong Convertible Bond, Weixin Convertible Bond, and Youzu Convertible Bond; the top five losers were Xince Convertible Bond, Jing 23 Convertible Bond, Gaoce Convertible Bond, Yingji Convertible Bond, and Sheyan Convertible Bond; the top five in terms of trading volume were Outong Convertible Bond, Dayuan Convertible Bond, Jiaojian Convertible Bond, Zhongqi Convertible Bond, and Dongjie Convertible Bond [36]. - The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate decreased. The weighted average conversion value at the end of this week was 99.15 yuan, an increase of 0.99 yuan compared with last week; the weighted conversion premium rate was 41.69%, a decrease of 0.04 pct compared with last week [44]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, there was valuation differentiation in the convertible bond structure. The valuations of convertible bonds with a parity of 0 - 80 and 100 - 110 decreased, while those of most other parity convertible bonds increased. The valuations of AAA - rated and A - and - below - rated convertible bonds increased, while those of other rated convertible bonds decreased. The valuations of small - cap and large - cap convertible bonds increased, while those of other scale - graded convertible bonds decreased [53]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom. As of this Friday, the conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds is above the 35% quantile since 2017, and that of balanced convertible bonds is above the 50% quantile since 2017 [53]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings rose. Since 2023, convertible bonds of different ratings have recorded different levels of returns, with high - rated convertible bonds showing more stable performance and low - rated convertible bonds showing weaker anti - decline ability and greater rebound strength [65]. - This week, convertible bonds of all scales rose. Since 2023, small - cap convertible bonds have recorded the highest return, followed by medium - small - cap, medium - cap, and large - cap convertible bonds in descending order [65]. 3.3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Terms 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Market Issuance Plans - This week, 2 convertible bonds have been issued but not yet listed, and 3 convertible bonds have passed the primary approval. From the beginning of 2023 to August 15, 2025, there have been 89 planned convertible bonds with a total scale of 139.408 billion yuan [72][73]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - This week, 5 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revision, 8 convertible bonds announced that they would not be downward - revised, 2 convertible bonds proposed downward revision, and 3 convertible bonds announced the results of downward revision [77]. - This week, 18 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption, 6 convertible bonds announced that they would not be redeemed in advance, and 4 convertible bonds announced early redemption [80][81][82]. - As of the end of this week, 4 convertible bonds are still in the put - option declaration period, and 11 convertible bonds are still in the company's capital - reduction and debt - settlement declaration period [85].

廖市无双："中场休息"何时到来？20250817 摘要 上证指数逼近四年高点，但成交量萎缩，需关注放量上涨能否持续，美 方关税政策到期亦构成潜在影响。中长线看好，但需注意 3,750-3,800 点及国运线上沿的压力位。 当前市场呈现"系统性慢牛"特征，类似于 2020 年牛市主升浪，60 日 均线附近是较好的中线入场点。小盘股表现优于大盘股，反映游资和散 户主导的行情。 市场风险偏好提高，金融加科技组合优势显著。银行板块性价比降低， 可能面临抛售。需警惕上证指数在 3,731-3,750 点可能引发的回撤。 牛市主升段通常在 20 日均线上方运行，跌破则可能回调至 60 日均线附 近，后者是中线买入良机。当前上行结构清晰，不破 20 日线则三浪未 结束。 推荐采用组合策略跑赢市场，配置大金融（银行、非银）和科技成长 （军工、计算机、传媒、电子、电芯、创新药），并动态调整。 当前行情由散户和游资驱动，小盘股牛市特征明显。选股应贴近年线， 关注跌不动且有潜在利好的标的，如前期券商和近期地产。 美联储降息预期增强利好 A 股和港股，尤其利好成长风格股票。行业配 置方面，关注科技、消费等增长潜力行业以及估值较低的大 ...