1. Index Movements - On June 23, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65% to close at 3381.58 points, with a turnover of 442.789 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.43% to close at 10048.39 points, with a turnover of 679.817 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.31% with a turnover of 239.995 billion yuan, opening at 5966.5, closing at 6078.22, with a daily high of 6083.53 and a low of 5965.66 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.61% with a turnover of 146.035 billion yuan, opening at 5613.28, closing at 5674.17, with a daily high of 5684.4 and a low of 5613.28 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.41% with a turnover of 72.036 billion yuan, opening at 2664.64, closing at 2684.78, with a daily high of 2692.91 and a low of 2656.68 [1]. - The CSI 300 Index rose 0.29% with a turnover of 232.482 billion yuan, opening at 3831.17, closing at 3857.9, with a daily high of 3867.59 and a low of 3827.08 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 78.63 points from the previous close, with sectors such as computer, electronics, and power equipment significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 34.66 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and national defense and military industry significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 300 rose 11.26 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks, non - bank finance, and electronics significantly pulling the index up, while sectors such as communication and food and beverage pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 11.06 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks, non - bank finance, and coal significantly pulling the index up, while the food and beverage sector pulled the index down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 66.55, IM01 was - 141.01, IM02 was - 217.17, and IM03 was - 390.88 [12]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 46.1, IC01 was - 97.95, IC02 was - 149.85, and IC03 was - 271.17 [12]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 35.08, IF01 was - 50.58, IF02 was - 63.57, and IF03 was - 92.48 [12]. - IH00 average daily basis was - 33.35, IH01 was - 35.67, IH02 was - 34.33, and IH03 was - 36.34 [12]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM, specific roll - over point differences and corresponding 15 - minute average data are provided at different times, along with the corresponding annualized costs [21][25][26]. - For IC, specific roll - over point differences and corresponding 15 - minute average data are provided at different times, along with the corresponding annualized costs [21][27]. - For IF, specific roll - over point differences and corresponding 15 - minute average data are provided at different times, along with the corresponding annualized costs [22]. - For IH, specific roll - over point differences and corresponding 15 - minute average data are provided at different times, along with the corresponding annualized costs [23][24].

6月18日各行业融资余额环比变动 截至6月18日，市场最新融资余额为18166.59亿元，较上个交易日环比增加13.39亿元，分行业统计，申 万所属一级行业有23个行业融资余额增加，国防军工行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加4.03亿元； 融资余额增加居前的行业还有非银金融、通信、食品饮料等，融资余额分别增加3.92亿元、2.83亿元、 2.68亿元；融资余额减少的行业有8个，汽车、有色金属、银行等行业融资余额减少较多，分别减少4.05 亿元、2.97亿元、2.47亿元。 以幅度进行统计，商贸零售行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为212.07亿元，环比增长0.92%，其 次是房地产、石油石化、国防军工行业，环比增幅分别为0.77%、0.74%、0.62%；融资余额环比降幅居 前的行业有综合、纺织服饰、银行等，最新融资余额分别有32.74亿元、68.49亿元、531.27亿元，分别 下降0.98%、0.80%、0.46%。（数据宝） 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 代码 | 最新融资 | 较上一日增减（亿元） | 环比增幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a general decline, with financial and cyclical sectors performing the best, while the STAR 50, consumer, and CSI 2000 indices lagged behind [3][9] - Among industries, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery showed the highest gains, while household appliances, food and beverage, and building materials performed the weakest [11][12] - The relative PE of the ChiNext index to the CSI 300 decreased, and the relative PB also declined [16] Group 2 - The overall valuation of broad market indices fell, with the current valuations of major indices above the 50% historical percentile level, while the ChiNext index is at a low valuation compared to the past year [24] - Valuation differentiation is evident across industries, with financial real estate valuations above the 50% historical percentile, while materials, equipment manufacturing, industrial services, transportation, consumption, and technology are at or below the 50% level [26] Group 3 - The current valuation of the food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and public utilities sectors is relatively cheap, indicating potential investment opportunities [37] - The PB-ROE perspective shows that non-bank financials, public utilities, agriculture, food and beverage, and social services have lower PB-ROE ratios, suggesting they may be undervalued [40] Group 4 - Current popular concepts such as autonomous driving, cultivated diamonds, third-generation semiconductors, digital currency, 6G, robotics, central state-owned enterprises, and large aircraft are at historically high valuation percentiles over the past three years [43]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [4] Core View of the Report - The geopolitical risks still pose disturbances to the market. The A-share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. To break out of the current oscillation pattern and elevate the valuation again, policy - driven fiscal expansion, intensified real - estate stabilization measures, and rapid advancement of supply - side reform are required [2][10] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. One - Week View and Overview of Macro Key Events Next Week's View - Geopolitical risks continue to affect the market. The global stock market showed a roller - coaster trend this week, with the MSCI Global Index rising in the first four days and falling sharply on Friday. The A - share market remained in a high - level oscillation. The Sino - US talks in London earlier this week alleviated trade pressure, but the conflict between Israel and Iran on Friday increased geopolitical risks and impacted global risk assets, causing a sharp decline in the A - share market. Domestically, the economic momentum is weakening, and the abnormal valuation expansion of the A - share market is prominent [2][10] This Week's Key Events - On June 9th, China's May CPI was down 0.1% year - on - year, PPI was down 3.3% year - on - year, exports grew 4.8% year - on - year, and imports fell 3.4% year - on - year. The State Council held a special learning meeting on promoting the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, and the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued a document on improving people's livelihood [11][12][13] - On June 10th, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued a document on promoting in - depth reform in Shenzhen, and the Chinese President had a phone call with the South Korean President to ensure the healthy development of Sino - South Korean relations [15][16] - On June 11th, China and the US reached a framework on implementing the consensus of the two heads of state's phone call and the Geneva talks. China will implement zero - tariff measures for 100% of tariff items for 53 African diplomatic countries [17][18] - On June 12th, China and the US agreed to further play the role of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism and maintain communication [19][20] - On June 13th, China's M2 in May increased 7.9% year - on - year, and the Chinese President will attend the Second China - Central Asia Summit [21][22] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From June 9th to June 13th, the global stock market denominated in US dollars declined. The MSCI Global Index fell 0.25%, with emerging markets (+0.60%) > developed markets (-0.35%) > frontier markets (-0.47%). The stock index of Taiwan, China rose 3.64%, leading the world, while the German stock market fell 1.99%, performing the worst globally [1][23] Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - From June 9th to June 13th, Chinese equity assets corrected. In terms of different markets, A - shares > Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1371.8 billion yuan, an increase of 171.7 billion yuan compared with last week. The A - share market was differentiated, with the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Beijing Stock Exchange performing poorly, while the ChiNext Index rose slightly by 0.22% [1][26] Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - Most global GICS primary industries declined this week. The leading industry was energy (+5.11%), and the poorly performing industry was finance (-1.80%). In the Chinese market, energy led the rise (+2.27%), and daily consumption led the decline (-3.14%) [30] Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries - Among China's A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 14 rose (23 last week) and 16 fell (7 last week). The leading industry was non - ferrous metals (+3.95%), and the industry with the largest decline was food and beverages (-4.42%) [1][31] Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles - This week, the value style outperformed the growth style, and the market - capitalization style was biased towards mid - cap stocks [36] Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis - Relevant charts show the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [38][40] 3. Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Broad - Based Index Valuation - The report provides the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of multiple broad - based indexes such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 100, etc. [43] Primary Industry Valuation - The report presents the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of multiple primary industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc. [44] Equity Risk Premium of Broad - Based Indexes - The ERP of the CSI 300 decreased slightly this week, while the ERPs of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 increased slightly [45][50] Consensus Expected Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - Based Indexes - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 remained flat at 8.16%, and that in 2026 was lowered to 8.12%. The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 500 in 2025 was lowered to 36.79%, and that in 2026 was raised to 16.16%. The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was lowered to 1.36%, and that in 2026 was raised to 19.38% [51] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year and 1 - year bond yields declined, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 98, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.19 [59] Tracking of Trading - Type Funds - This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds increased by 18.5 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 12.6 billion yuan compared with last week [61] Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - There are 29 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 29 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 1.5 billion, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 increased by 0.2 billion, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 0.3 billion, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 3.9 billion [65][66][70] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data Supply Side: Tire Operating Rate Rebounded - The tire operating rate rebounded, and relevant charts show the national blast furnace operating rate, coking enterprise operating rate, and domestic crude steel daily output [72][74][75] Consumption Side: The Transaction Volume of New Homes Declined Significantly - The transaction volume of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities declined significantly, and the year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales declined. The price of crude oil rose to around $75 per barrel [81][91] Inflation Observation: Energy Prices Rose Significantly - Energy prices rose significantly, production material prices fluctuated at a low level, and agricultural product prices reached a new low for the year [93][94]

Group 1 - Market sentiment indicator decreased to 0.8, down from 1.75, indicating a bearish outlook [10][4] - Price-volume consistency improved, but industry trends remain weak with significant capital rotation [14][4] - Total A-share trading volume increased to 1.50 trillion RMB, with daily trading volume reaching 122.514 billion shares [17][4] Group 2 - Small-cap value style is currently favored, with a notable increase in short-term trend scores for sectors like social services, non-ferrous metals, and steel [32][34] - Social services sector saw a significant short-term trend score increase of 31.25% [32][34] - The model indicates a weakening differentiation between growth and value styles, suggesting a prevailing value preference [36][37]

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午收盘，今日沪指跌0.72%，A股成交量779.00亿股，成交金额9361.71亿 元，比上一个交易日增加18.06%。个股方面，866只个股上涨，其中涨停43只，4464只个股下跌，其中 跌停9只。从申万行业来看，石油石化、国防军工、公用事业等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.49%、1.34%、 0.89%；美容护理、传媒、食品饮料等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为3.55%、2.59%、2.17%。（数据宝） | 汽车 | | | | 同心传动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料 | -2.17 | 277.65 | 28.32 | 康比特 | -5.99 | | 传媒 | -2.59 | 389.66 | -7.85 | 富春股份 | -11.21 | | 美容护理 | -3.55 | 69.99 | 4.72 | 华业香料 | -11.51 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 今日各行业表现（截至上午收盘） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） ...

6月4日各行业融资余额环比变动 截至6月4日，市场最新融资余额为17949.26亿元，较上个交易日环比增加22.38亿元，分行业统计，申万 所属一级行业有22个行业融资余额增加，医药生物行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加9.23亿元；融 资余额增加居前的行业还有计算机、机械设备、传媒等，融资余额分别增加4.68亿元、4.14亿元、2.88 亿元；融资余额减少的行业有9个，非银金融、通信、有色金属等行业融资余额减少较多，分别减少 4.31亿元、3.90亿元、1.33亿元。 以幅度进行统计，交通运输行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为339.36亿元，环比增长0.82%，其 次是综合、医药生物、纺织服饰行业，环比增幅分别为0.80%、0.74%、0.73%；融资余额环比降幅居前 的行业有通信、农林牧渔、建筑材料等，最新融资余额分别有604.01亿元、249.76亿元、109.54亿元， 分别下降0.64%、0.51%、0.47%。（数据宝） | 房地产 | 301.13 | -0.36 | -0.12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 209.57 | -0.38 | -0 ...

每日观点 今日或受关税预期变化影响，市场风险偏好受到提振，沪深三大指数反弹，两市成交放量至1.21万亿。 昨夜公布的美联储5月议息会议纪要显示，美国经济前景的不确定性进一步增加，联储决策者几乎全都 表达了对关税长期推升通胀的担忧，对于降息将采取谨慎态度，他们将等待有关财政和贸易政策的更多 明确信息，当前CME基于期货合约价格对于美联储利率的预测，9月降息概率不足5成。国内方面，经 济保持平稳修复态势，今年前四个月主要经济指标的同比增速超过去年四季度水平。当前中美贸易局势 阶段性缓和，在90天关税暂缓期内"抢出口"将继续，生产端偏强或将支撑起企业营收上升的空间。对于 A股而言，短期或将呈现区间震荡走势，中长期维度关注我国自主科技能力的提升，以及加速完善社会 保障并激发内需潜力的政策趋势。 消息面 当地时间5月28日，美国联邦法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在4月2日"解放日"宣布的关税政策生效，并裁 定特朗普越权，对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税。在联邦法院阻止加征关税之后，特朗普政 府提起上诉通知。 简评：联邦法院的裁决可能促使中美贸易关系出现新的变化。此前因"抢出口"透支需求的产业链企业或 迎来订单修复窗口， ...

Group 1 - The current discussions among brokerages focus on the new public fund assessment regulations rather than clear predictions for index movements [1][2] - The expectation of future investment behavior by public funds is influencing the rise of "underweight sectors," rather than actual large-scale portfolio adjustments by these funds [1][3] - The market is expected to remain in a trend of steady upward movement despite concerns over fluctuating tariffs and profit-taking sentiments [1][2] Group 2 - The upcoming April economic data is anticipated to show a slowdown in domestic demand momentum, with limited upward catalysts for the market in the short term [2][5] - The market may enter a phase of accelerated rotation of hotspots and styles, with limited downside risks due to ongoing fundamental recovery and policy expectations [2][5] - The new public fund regulations are expected to optimize fund operation models, leading to discussions about future industry ecological changes [5] Group 3 - The market's risk appetite has improved due to unexpected decreases in US-China tariffs, which has positively impacted A-share indices [1][3] - The public fund's goal remains to outperform benchmarks, with decisions on sector allocations influenced by actual fundamentals and valuation judgments [1][3] - The active management of public funds is likely to evolve towards a more balanced allocation, reflecting the distribution of various institutional investors [1][3]

报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 12 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 物来顺应：——策略周报 0505 | 2025-05-06 | | --- | --- | | 以稳为主：——策略周报 0428 | 2025-04-28 | | 缺乏稳定一致预期：——策略周报 0421 | 2025-04-20 | | 市场或仍将保持高波动：——策略周报 ...