数据显示，7月2日上海铅锭现货价格报价16925.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（17175.00元/吨）贴水 250.00元/吨。 【市场资讯】 分析观点： （7月2日）全国铅价格一览表 南华期货（603093）研报：从基本面来看，供给端冶炼厂受较高铅价驱动，有一定复产意愿，社库逐步 累库进一步压制价格。原生铅方面，电解铅开工率相对再生铅保持强势，且副产品收益稳定。再生铅方 面，受废电瓶原料端供应较紧，冶炼厂信心不足，总体供给端方面偏紧。需求端，逼近旺季，生产备库 意愿加强，但价格上涨现货成交一般。短期内，受供需双弱与宏观影响，震荡为主。 规格 品牌/产地 报价 报价类型 交货地 交易商 品名:1#铅锭 ;牌号:Pb99.994 ; 上海华通 17025元/吨 市场价 上海 上海华通有色金属现货市场 品名:1#铅锭 ;牌号:Pb99.994 ; 广东南储 16975元/吨 市场价 广东省 广东南储有色现货市场 品名:1#铅锭 ;牌号:Pb99.994 ; 上海有色 16925元/吨 市场价 上海 上海物贸中心有色金属交易市场 期货市场上看，7月2日收盘，沪铅期货主力合约报17175.00元/吨，涨幅0.23 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走高，上涨 0.66%至 9943 | 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.46%至 80390 | | | | | 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势。宏观方面，美国 6 月 | ISM 制造业 PMI 指数为 49，连 | | | | | 续四个月萎缩，预期为 48.8，前值为 48.5。美国 5 月 | JOLTS 职位空缺 776.9 万人，高 | | | | | 于预期的 730 万人，前值为 739.1 | 万人，该数值大幅超出市场预期，显示市场韧性。 | | | | | 美联储主席鲍威尔在一次会议上未排除 7 | 月降息可能，称若非关税已降息，关税料将 | | | | | 对通胀产生影响。关税方面，7 月 9 | 日关税重启最后期限，特朗普政府正在调整贸易 | | | | 铜 | | 谈判策略，从寻求全面互惠协议转向更有限的分阶段协议，以避免对部分国家重新征 | | | | | 收严厉关税。库存方面， ...

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China is expanding its coverage to include more industries, with significant policy advancements in 2023 aimed at enhancing carbon emissions trading and promoting low-carbon technologies [1][2]. Group 1: Carbon Market Expansion - The national carbon emissions trading market has officially expanded to include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, following the power generation sector [1][2]. - The government aims to gradually include key products from the petrochemical, chemical, paper, and aviation industries into the carbon market starting in 2026 [1][2]. - The expansion follows a "mature first, include first" principle, with scientific assessments submitted to the State Council for approval [1][2]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The cement industry was prioritized for inclusion due to its mature production processes and data foundation, while the aluminum smelting sector has a relatively low direct carbon emission impact [2]. - Approximately 730 steel enterprises are engaged in annual carbon emissions accounting, with long-process steel companies accounting for 90% of total emissions in the sector [2]. - The chemical industry presents complexities in product inclusion due to the variety of products and their respective emissions profiles, with over 200 million tons of key products currently reported [3]. Group 3: Paper Industry Dynamics - The paper industry, while not yet included in the carbon market, has a significant relationship with carbon emissions due to its energy consumption patterns, with coal accounting for 75% of its energy use [4]. - The industry utilizes self-owned power plants, which are already included in the carbon market, leading to potential challenges in accounting for emissions from self-generated steam [5]. - Opportunities for the paper industry include enhancing energy efficiency and utilizing biomass in self-owned power plants, which can contribute to carbon reduction efforts [6][7]. Group 4: CCER Mechanism and Development - The CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) mechanism currently allows for a 5% offset in the carbon market, with an estimated demand of approximately 400 million tons post-expansion [9][10]. - The existing CCER methodologies cover limited sectors, necessitating the development of additional methodologies to meet the growing demand for carbon credits [9][10]. - Expanding methodologies to include waste treatment and other sectors can facilitate low-carbon transitions and enhance the overall effectiveness of the carbon market [10].

期现日报 拾资咨询业务资格· 证监许可 【2011】12 2025年7月2日 星期三 70015979 价格及基美 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 80205 | 79990 | +215.00 | 0.27% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 200 | 130 | +70.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80075 | 79940 | +135.00 | 0.17% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 90 | 65 | +25.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 80080 | 79915 | +165.00 | 0.21% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 75 | રેર | +20.00 | | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 2161 | 2131 | +30.00 | 1.41% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 240.67 | 319.83 | -79.16 | ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-02 绝对价格下滑现货市场并未明显好转 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-18.75 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌210元/吨至22280元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨25元/吨至105元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌240元/吨至22250 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌5元/吨至75元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌200元/ 吨至22210元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨35元/吨至35元/吨。 期货方面：2025-07-01沪锌主力合约开于22380元/吨，收于22255元/吨，较前一交易日下跌180元/吨，全天交易日 成交178683手，较前一交易日增加17759手，全天交易日持仓134433手，较前一交易日减少5753手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22420元/吨，最低点达到22105元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-30，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.06万吨，较上周同期增加0.28万吨。截止2025-06-30，LME 锌库存为117475吨，较上一交易日减少1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the global industrial metal market is expected to remain in a loose cycle in the second half of the year, supporting price increases for industrial metals [1] - Domestic policy-driven demand is anticipated to gradually improve, leading to a release of demand elasticity for metals [1] - Supply constraints for metals like copper and aluminum are expected to continue, with a tightening supply-demand situation likely to further develop [1] Group 2 - For copper, the trend of shrinking supply elasticity is becoming evident, with processing fees continuing to decline and smelting profits under pressure, suggesting limited global copper supply growth in the second half [1] - In the aluminum sector, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, with minimal production elasticity, while strong resilience in the new energy sector is expected to maintain demand [1] - The mining ETF tracks a non-ferrous metal mining index, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal industry chain, which is closely related to commodity price fluctuations [1]

（核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 | | 20250702申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 可能短期区 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 间波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | | ...

Group 1 - Copper prices showed strong performance, with the Shanghai copper main contract closing above 80,000, driven by external market influences [1] - The Caixin PMI data returned above 50, indicating economic expansion, while the deadline for tariff negotiations between multiple countries and the US approaches [1] - The Federal Reserve's Powell expressed caution regarding interest rate cuts, although a potential cut in July remains on the table [1] Group 2 - Antofagasta's mid-year smelting processing fee is at 0 yuan/ton, better than market expectations of negative values, but still the lowest in history, indicating ongoing tight supply expectations [1] - Overall demand remains cautious due to overseas macroeconomic concerns and domestic seasonal factors, despite low inventory levels providing short-term support [1] - LME inventory has stopped declining, and while spot premiums have slightly decreased, they remain high, indicating a need to monitor market sentiment [1] Group 3 - Aluminum prices fluctuated at low levels, with Shanghai aluminum showing strength due to the performance of non-ferrous metals [1] - Despite concerns over future ore supply tightness, stable import ore prices and high inventory levels limit short-term impacts on alumina prices [1] - The overall surplus in the alumina market remains unchanged, with clear downward pressure, but low valuations suggest opportunities for short selling at high prices [1] Group 4 - Nickel prices saw slight gains in the night session, supported by expectations of US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [1] - Nickel smelting is experiencing reduced capacity expansion due to losses, but the surplus situation is unlikely to improve in the short term [1] - Seasonal recovery in ore supply is weakening support for nickel ore prices, leading to a range-bound trading pattern for nickel prices [1]

Group 1 - The black metal sector is experiencing a compression in steel mill profits, with rebar prices being driven up by raw material fluctuations [1] - Current trading logic includes acceptable steel mill profitability, short-term strong pig iron output, and a decline in raw material supply leading to a rebound, while seasonal steel demand is weakening [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the upcoming vote on a new fiscal bill are increasing market sentiment towards dual easing in U.S. fiscal and monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Rebar price expectations remain stable, with inventory levels low and limited expectations for significant accumulation in the future [1] - The acceleration of special bond issuance in June is noted, but the allocation towards practical work funds is decreasing, and real estate sales are weakening [1] - Attention is required on the July Politburo meeting for potential new policy stimuli for the real estate sector, with cautious outlooks on rebar prices and rebound heights [1] Group 3 - Hot-rolled coil prices have shown a recent increase in year-on-year demand, but there are expectations of weakening in reality, leading to a contraction in the price difference between hot and cold rolled products [1] - The steel mills are experiencing weaker order intake, with exports increasing year-on-year, but a significant decline in June exports is anticipated [1] - The market sentiment is positively influenced by the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, but demand expectations remain under pressure [1] Group 4 - Iron ore prices are showing strength due to seasonal declines in shipments expected in July and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] - Global shipments and arrivals have decreased, alleviating supply pressure, while iron water output remains stable with strong profit margins for blast furnaces [1] - The trading strategy suggests a gradual shift to short positions after a rebound, with resistance levels for the September contract noted at 720-740 yuan and support levels at 680 yuan and 640-650 yuan [1]

铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 有色金属日报 2025-7-2 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 铅 周二沪铅指数收跌 0.56%至 17108 元/吨，单边交易总持仓 8.36 万手。截至周二下午 15：00，伦铅 3S 较前日同期跌 7 至 2041 美元/吨，总持仓 15.09 万手。SMM1#铅锭均价 16925 元/吨，再生精铅 均价 16875 元/吨，精废价差 50 元/吨，废电动车电池均价 1 ...