1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, with significant price fluctuations in various sectors. The short - term market is mainly in a state of shock, and investors need to pay attention to geopolitical changes and economic data trends [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The expectation of the easing of the Middle East crisis boosts global risk appetite, and domestic economic data from January to February is favorable. However, due to the influence of the Spring Festival month - shift and external uncertainties, the market sentiment needs to be repaired, and the short - term trend is mainly oscillatory [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Rising oil prices and improved economic data from January to February put pressure on the bond market. The short - term bond market lacks bullish factors, and attention should be paid to the sustainability and strength of economic recovery [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The continuous escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, tariff policy uncertainties, and rising South African electricity prices support the long - term upward trend of platinum - group metals [3]. - **Gold and Silver**: Precious metals are in a low - level shock. The market focuses on geopolitical risks and Fed rate - cut expectations, and the Fed's March FOMC meeting is a key focus [3][4]. - **Copper**: The replenishment demand of downstream enterprises supports the domestic social inventory reduction, and the US energy department's plan to support key mineral processing is a long - term positive [5]. - **Aluminum**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz intensifies the supply shortage of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East, and the short - term price is mainly affected by the war situation [5]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production is affected by regular maintenance and new capacity release, and overseas is affected by geopolitical situations, with mixed long and short news [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and there is strong support below [6]. - **Zinc**: The market is trading on macro - bearish factors. Supply and demand are under pressure, and the zinc price is expected to be in a weak shock [6][7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The shipping volume of nickel ore is seasonally declining, and the downstream of new energy is in the off - season. Stainless steel inventory is decreasing, but the consumer market is not hot [7]. - **Tin**: Geopolitical and rate - cut delay factors are bearish. Supply has a buffer, demand is starting to resume, and the market is in a weak shock [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price is affected by the Middle East situation, but the long - term demand growth logic remains unchanged [9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the production capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the process of "anti - involution" and supply - demand optimization [9]. - **Lead**: Affected by macro factors, the supply is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to oscillate [10]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: Geopolitical conflicts in Iran drive up the prices of coking coal and iron ore, providing cost support for steel. The production of rebar is expected to increase, while hot - rolled coil may reduce production [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term price is strengthened by negotiation events, but the supply - demand situation is still oversupplied, and the price may reverse quickly [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: In the terminal demand verification period, the black - series prices may face downward pressure, but the price has some support at the bottom [13]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The cost support is gradually strengthening, but the upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high inventory [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations dominate the pricing logic, and the oil price fluctuates greatly. The supply reduction continues, and the market sentiment is cautious [15]. - **Fuel Oil**: The Asian fuel oil market is strongly supported by supply concerns, and the short - term strong pattern continues [15]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical factors drive up the price of crude oil, leading to preventive production cuts. The demand is weak, showing a state of high price but low trading volume [16]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The chemical sector fluctuates with geopolitical situations, and the cost is supported by rising crude oil prices. The market sentiment is affected by the US attitude [17][18]. - **PP and Propylene**: The PP market follows the crude oil price. The supply of PP is reduced, and the export window is opened. The supply of propylene is relatively loose [18]. - **Plastic**: It follows the crude oil price. The supply is reduced, and the export may increase. The demand is suppressed by high prices [19]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment and geopolitical factors are mixed. The demand for rubber is bearish, but synthetic rubber has cost support [19]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply pressure is high, and the demand is relatively stable. The price space is limited, and the long - term supply is expected to remain high [20][21]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the mid - stream inventory is high. The supply return expectation and high inventory limit the price increase, and the demand needs to be verified [21]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is differentiated. The inventory is high, and the export has a certain supporting effect on the market [22]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The current market is mainly trading on the weak post - Spring Festival demand. The price decline is supported by secondary fattening sentiment, but the upward driving force is weak [23][24]. - **Oilseeds**: The Sino - US negotiation in April is postponed, and the market shows a pattern of "buying expectations and selling reality". The short - term spot price is firm, but the medium - term supply is abundant [24]. - **Oils**: The oil market follows the crude oil trend, and short - term policies are favorable. It is expected to maintain a strong operation [25]. - **Cotton**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is volatile, but the cotton price is relatively firm. The supply - demand tightening expectation supports the price, and the import quota policy may lead to a small - scale correction [25]. - **Sugar**: The oil - alcohol - sugar transmission mechanism supports the sugar price, and the price increase mainly depends on the supply - demand fundamentals [26]. - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is gradually recovering. The inventory pressure is relieved, and the demand is expected to be boosted by the approaching Tomb - sweeping Festival [27][28]. - **Apples**: The futures market is strongly supported by fundamentals and delivery logic, and the short - term trend is strong [28]. - **Red Dates**: The market focus is on the demand side. The downstream sales are average, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The Shanghai copper futures market shows a weakening trend with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The raw material side has tight ore expectations supporting copper prices. The supply side is expected to see a significant increase in copper production as smelter operating rates recover. The demand side remains stable as downstream buyers replenish inventory at lower prices. Domestic copper inventories are in a seasonal accumulation phase, but the rate may slow down with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season. Overall, the fundamentals are in a stage of increasing supply and stable demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation. The options market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreasing implied volatility. The report suggests light - position long - term trading at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 99,340.00 yuan/ton, down 380.00 yuan; LME 3 - month copper is 12,750.50 dollars/ton, down 105.00 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 60.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 178,968.00 lots, down 14,371.00 lots. The top 20 futures positions in Shanghai copper are - 83,401.00 lots, up 82.00 lots. LME copper inventory is 311,600.00 tons, down 225.00 tons; SHFE cathode copper inventory is 433,458.00 tons, up 8,313.00 tons. SHFE cathode copper warrants are 324,289.00 tons, down 2,856.00 tons; COMEX copper inventory is 589,762.00 short tons, down 1,883.00 short tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 100,220.00 yuan/ton, up 1,040.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 copper spot price is 100,410.00 yuan/ton, up 1,075.00 yuan. Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) is 45.00 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.50 dollars/ton, up 0.50 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 880.00 yuan/ton, up 1,420.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 102.00 dollars/ton, up 0.70 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.80 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 60.39 dollars/kiloton, down 4.34 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 89,660.00 yuan/metal ton, down 1,240.00 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 90,360.00 yuan/metal ton, down 1,240.00 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 2,100.00 yuan/ton, down 200.00 yuan; the northern processing fee is 1,700.00 yuan/ton, down 100.00 yuan. The refined copper production is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 315,793.95 tons, down 124,206.05 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 66,790.00 yuan/ton, down 1,100.00 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 81,450.00 yuan/ton, down 1,000.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,130.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed value of power grid infrastructure investment is 6,395.02 billion yuan, up 791.13 billion yuan. The cumulative completed value of real estate development investment is 9,612.00 billion yuan, down 73,176.14 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 thousand pieces, up 415,345.50 thousand pieces [2] Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 13.87%, down 1.42%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 32.73%, down 0.56%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 22.86%, down 0.0104; the at - the - money option call - to - put ratio is 1.24, down 0.0563 [2] Industry News - Academician Ouyang Minggao stated that 2026 will start a new high - quality development cycle led by innovation, and the new energy vehicle industry will have seven technological development directions in the next five years. When the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeds 50%, the market will enter the late mass - market stage with a slower growth in market share and a faster growth in the number of vehicles in use. China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Paris, reaching some new consensus and agreeing to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment. Premier Li Qiang chaired a meeting to deploy the implementation of the key work of the State Council in 2026, emphasizing the implementation of key tasks such as promoting the construction of a unified national market, expanding and improving the service industry, and developing new - generation intelligent manufacturing [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that price increases remain the main theme, highlighting opportunities in manufacturing sectors due to rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions [6][9][14] - The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from rising energy prices, with commodities like pork and rubber already at the beginning of a price uptrend due to supply adjustments [9][11] - The chemical industry is focusing on raw material supply issues, with the agricultural chemical sector showing signs of rising demand and prices due to increased agricultural input needs [11][12] Group 2 - The report indicates that the financial attributes of non-ferrous metals are under pressure, returning to supply-demand fundamentals amid concerns over persistent inflation [12][13] - Short-term volatility in cyclical sectors is expected, with a focus on opportunities in agriculture and power equipment as market sentiment fluctuates due to geopolitical disturbances [17][25] - The report notes that while market hotspots are generally retreating, sectors such as agriculture, power equipment, and basic chemicals are maintaining trend signals [17][18][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The latest economic data shows that the domestic economy has generally recovered at the beginning of the year, which is expected to provide strong support for the market. The current market trading volume has remained steadily above 2 trillion yuan, and market sentiment has gradually stabilized. The Shanghai Composite Index has been running in the range above 4,000 points, and the four major indexes have shown a pattern of alternating strength and weakness [2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Economic Recovery**: In the domestic macro - aspect, from January to February, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year. After excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 5.2%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.1%. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.3%, the service industry production index increased by 5.2%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%. Overseas, Trump mentioned military actions against Iran and called on the Fed to cut interest rates [1] - **Index Rebound**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indexes rebounded after hitting the bottom. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% to close at 4084.79 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.41%. In terms of industries, the sector indexes showed mixed performance. The food and beverage, electronics, and commercial and retail industries led the gains, while the steel, non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and public utilities industries led the losses. The market trading volume on that day was 2.3 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed up, with the Nasdaq rising 1.22% to 22374.18 points [1] - **Index Futures Position Increase**: In the futures market, the basis of IF, IC, and IM rebounded. In terms of trading volume and positions, the trading volume and positions of index futures increased simultaneously [1] Strategy - The latest economic data indicates that the domestic economy at the beginning of the year shows a recovery trend, which can support the market. The stable trading volume above 2 trillion yuan reflects stable market sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index runs above 4000 points, and the four major indexes alternate in strength [2] Macro - economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles [5][7][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on March 16, 2026, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.41%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.05%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.09%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.66%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.04% [12] - **Other Indicators**: The charts also show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Position and Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM index futures all increased. For example, the position of IF increased by 18,942 to 124,362, and the trading volume increased by 2,094 to 273,674 [17] - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM index futures showed different changes. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 8.76, with a change of + 2.38 [39] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM index futures also had various changes. For example, the spread between the next - season and current - month contracts of IF was - 73.80, with a change of + 0.60 [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Insights - Domestic demand is slowly recovering, but geopolitical tensions are affecting market sentiment [1] - The steel supply is expected to continue recovering as environmental production restrictions in northern regions end, but overall improvements in supply-demand balance are limited [1][15] - Copper prices are significantly influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and oil prices, with high oil prices exerting downward pressure on copper prices [1][38] - Geopolitical factors are currently the main influence on aluminum prices, with expectations of supply disruptions supporting aluminum prices in the short term [1][45] - Gold prices are under pressure due to high inflation driven by oil prices and low expectations for interest rate cuts [1][48] - Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate due to strong demand for energy storage and macroeconomic sentiment [1][51] - Rare earth prices are anticipated to fluctuate due to intense competition between upstream and downstream sectors [1][61] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The production of five major steel products increased by 2.98% week-on-week, with total steel inventory rising [15][23] - As of March 13, the total steel inventory was 19.51 million tons, up 1.18% week-on-week [23] - The average price index for steel increased by 1.22% week-on-week, with the comprehensive price at 3,445.39 CNY/ton [36][37] Copper Industry - As of March 13, LME copper spot prices were 12,800 USD/ton, down 0.39% week-on-week [43] - Domestic copper inventory showed a slight decrease, while the refining fees were negative, indicating pressure on the copper market [39][43] Aluminum Industry - LME aluminum prices increased by 3.99% week-on-week, with domestic prices at 25,100 CNY/ton [46] - Domestic aluminum inventory continued to accumulate, while geopolitical tensions are expected to impact supply [45] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices decreased, with COMEX gold at 5,023.10 USD/oz, down 3.05% week-on-week [48] - The outlook for gold remains cautious due to high inflation and geopolitical risks [48] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices remained stable, with domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate at 157,500 CNY/ton [52] - Market sentiment is influenced by geopolitical events and supply chain dynamics [51] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are expected to fluctuate due to upstream and downstream competition, with light rare earth oxide prices at 802,500 CNY/ton [61] - Tungsten prices increased significantly, with tungsten concentrate at 1,048,000 CNY/ton [63]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant divergence in the non-ferrous metal market, with A-share related stocks mostly declining while the non-ferrous ETF Dachen (159980) remains strong, showcasing its advantages in commodity attributes [1] - The Dachen ETF demonstrates superior volatility control due to its underlying assets linked to non-ferrous commodity futures, making it a stable choice amid market adjustments [1] - The solid supply-demand fundamentals provide effective cushioning for the Dachen ETF, resulting in lower price volatility compared to stock-based non-ferrous assets [1] Group 2 - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the need for more copper cable capacity during his keynote at the GTC 2026 conference, addressing market concerns regarding the transition from copper to optical solutions [1] - Guohai Securities noted that copper cables are more suitable for short-distance interconnections within cabinets, highlighting their reliability and low cost for cloud vendors [2] - Huatai Securities pointed out that geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East could slow down supply growth for electrolytic aluminum, potentially driving aluminum prices upward [2] Group 3 - The current market volatility is primarily driven by risk release at the trading level, while the core logic of "rigid supply + energy transition demand" for industrial metals remains unchanged [3] - The Dachen ETF (159980.SZ) is positioned to capture overall opportunities in the sector, with its underlying assets comprising various non-ferrous metal futures [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guinea, the world's largest bauxite exporter, plans to tighten bauxite supply rules to curb the continuous decline in bauxite prices. The alumina 05 contract rose after the news on the night of March 16 [4]. - The bauxite shipping volume from Guinea has increased significantly year - on - year, and port inventories remain high. The cost of imported bauxite and alumina production is low, and profits have recovered. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose, and downstream demand for alumina has limited growth, with high inventories to be reduced [4]. - In the long term, the game between upstream and downstream may intensify, but in the short term, the contradiction is limited due to abundant domestic bauxite supply and weak alumina production [4]. - The alumina price is at the bottom, and the market is pricing in the current situation of loose supply and limited growth of electrolytic aluminum capacity. The cost of alumina will be supported by the rise in caustic soda this month, and the bottom is becoming clear. However, the upward space is currently limited by the fundamentals [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Event & Market - On March 16, Guinea plans to tighten bauxite supply rules. The alumina 05 contract initially weakened with caustic soda and electrolytic aluminum in the night session and then rose to close at 2989 [4]. Alumina Fundamentals - Guinea's bauxite shipping volume has increased significantly year - on - year, port inventories are high, the price of Guinea's trihydrate bauxite has risen slightly, and the cost of imported bauxite and alumina production is low with profit recovery [4]. - After the Spring Festival, the alumina production capacity utilization has decreased slightly. Due to the continuous release of alumina production capacity in 2026 and the expectation of improved profits, the supply is expected to be loose. The downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity is restricted, and the demand for alumina has limited growth, with high inventories to be reduced [4]. Impact - Guinea is the country with the largest bauxite reserves, production, and exports in the world. It tries to control supply to stabilize prices and enhance its pricing power through measures such as limiting production and exports and increasing export tariffs [4]. - In the long term, the game between upstream and downstream may intensify, but in the short term, the contradiction is limited due to abundant domestic bauxite supply and weak alumina production [4]. Operation Suggestions - The alumina price is at the bottom. Unilateral trading is recommended to participate at low prices, or use the option strategy of selling put options to express the view of bottom support [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out [2][4]. - Silver: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction [2][5]. - Copper: The price is supported by the callback of the US dollar [2][10]. - Zinc: The price shows a weak and volatile trend [2][13]. - Lead: The price is under pressure due to the increase in inventory [2][17]. - Tin: The price is in an oscillatory adjustment [2][20]. - Aluminum: The price is in a range - bound oscillation; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the mine end; Cast aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: The accumulation of smelting inventory resonates with the macro - sentiment, and the shortage at the mine end supports the lower limit; Stainless steel: The fundamentals and the macro - environment exert pressure, and the current cost provides support [2][26]. Summary by Directory Gold - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,153.06, with a daily decline of 2.45%, and the night - session closing price was 1144.20, with a decline of 0.22%. The trading volume increased by 25,719 compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 13,351. The position of SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 18, and the inventory of Shanghai Gold decreased by 27 kilograms [5]. - **News**: The obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz has been alleviated, leading to a rise in US stocks and bonds, a 5% drop in US oil, and a 10% increase in Ethereum. Trump hinted at attacking the oil facilities on Kharg Island, and the US allies' response to the joint escort plan for the Strait of Hormuz was lukewarm [5][7]. Silver - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21854, with a daily increase of 0.86%, and the night - session closing price was 21546.00, with an increase of 1.53%. The trading volume decreased by 187,374 compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 11,077. The position of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 34 [5]. - **News**: Similar to gold, including the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump's remarks [5][7]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 99,720, with a daily decline of 0.59%, and the night - session closing price was 100190, with an increase of 0.47%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index increased by 109,826, and the position increased by 17,776. The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 7,935, and the London Copper inventory decreased by 225 [10]. - **News**: The international oil price has fallen, alleviating inflation concerns and leading to a rise in US stocks. Mongolia is seeking to renegotiate the "unfair" business terms of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine. Zambia aims to triple its copper production by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah after an accident [10][12]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 23905, with a daily decline of 0.97%. The trading volume increased by 23045, and the position increased by 2126. The London Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 3293.5, with a decline of 0.63%. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased by 12003, and the London Zinc inventory decreased by 400 [13]. - **News**: Trump hinted at attacking the oil facilities on Kharg Island and called for escort in the Strait of Hormuz. The London Metal Exchange's trading was interrupted for two hours, but the market price did not change significantly after the resumption [14][16]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16315, with a daily decline of 1.45%. The trading volume increased by 28081, and the position increased by 2368. The London Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 1903, with a decline of 1.68%. The inventory of Shanghai Lead increased by 535, and the London Lead inventory increased by 75 [17]. - **News**: The international oil price has fallen, alleviating inflation concerns and leading to a rise in US stocks [18]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 373,360, with a daily decline of 3.18%, and the night - session closing price was 381,840, with an increase of 2.43%. The trading volume increased by 11,405, and the position decreased by 2,351. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 278, and the London Tin inventory decreased by 60 [21]. - **News**: Trump called for the establishment of a Strait of Hormuz escort alliance. Iran warned of a decisive response if the Kharg Island facilities were attacked [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 25170, with a decrease of 210 compared with T - 1. The trading volume increased by 105097, and the position increased by 117111. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2965, with an increase of 9 compared with T - 1. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23830, with an increase of 175 compared with T - 1 [24]. - **News**: China and the US are considering establishing a working mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment cooperation. Indonesia is considering imposing a "windfall tax" on commodities [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 136,400, with a decrease of 530 compared with T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,120, with a decrease of 70 compared with T - 1 [26]. - **News**: Indonesia will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026. Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala. There were various incidents in the nickel industry, such as landslides in Indonesia and production adjustments in Cuba [26][30].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term measures currently introduced are insufficient to effectively stabilize oil prices, and oil prices are likely to remain high until the Strait of Hormuz resumes safe passage, but price fluctuations may intensify [1]. - Precious metals are currently suppressed by the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and this week's interest rate decisions of central banks including the Fed should be focused on [2]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, showing different trends, and investors need to focus on market information and risk control [1][2][3] Summaries by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Japan starts to release reserves, the US releases 86 million barrels of crude oil, and India negotiates with Iran. However, the core factors driving up oil prices remain, and oil prices are likely to stay high [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil remains tight, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil shows signs of contraction. The market is likely to run strongly in the short term [21]. - **Asphalt**: The fundamentals of the asphalt market have improved marginally, and with the support of cost and the release of catch - up growth momentum, the price has strengthened [22]. Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices rebounded due to factors such as the decline in oil prices and the fall of the US dollar index. The market may enter the peak season faster, but the uncertain war situation and high inventory may still put pressure on prices [3]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic aluminum inventory is at a high level, but overseas supply concerns increase. Aluminum prices fluctuate sharply at historical highs [4]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc ingots need to reduce inventory through price cuts to stabilize prices. The external market is under pressure, and the overall direction is to short on rebounds [7]. - **Lead**: The overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the price center of the futures contract is under pressure [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel fluctuates narrowly, and the market is affected by the Fed's liquidity control and the strength of the US dollar. It is in a weak - shock state [9]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate between 350,000 and 400,000 yuan, affected by factors such as the decline in oil prices and the improvement of computing power demand prospects [10]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost is relatively favorable, and the price is likely to oscillate strongly [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The demand has certain resilience, and the price is likely to oscillate strongly [19]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The price of propylene is supported, and the supply of polyolefins is under less pressure, but the downstream demand is insufficient in the short term [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and caustic soda follows the market sentiment but may have large fluctuations [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA have fallen, and there is negative feedback pressure in the market [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is affected by supply and demand and geopolitical factors, and the market sentiment fluctuates [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber follows the raw material price, and bottle - chip may face price pressure if the supply recovers [31]. - **Glass**: The glass futures price has fallen, and the market may return to fundamental trading. The inventory pressure is relatively large [32]. - **20 - rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: Rubber supply and inventory decrease, and the strategy is to wait and see, focusing on the Middle East situation [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash has fallen from a high level. In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment, and in the long term, short - selling on the right side can be considered [34]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term price trends of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are complex, and investors need to pay attention to short - term shock risks [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: The prices of vegetable oils are affected by factors such as the Middle East situation and energy prices, and the follow - up situation needs to be continuously focused on [36]. - **Soybean (Domestic)**: It is affected by imported soybeans, and the follow - up situation of new - season crops needs to be focused on [37]. - **Corn**: The price of corn in the northern ports has decreased, and the inventory has recovered. The market may return to fundamentals after the Middle East situation stabilizes [38]. - **Pig**: The pig futures price has fallen, and the industry needs to continue to reduce production capacity. Long positions in the far - month contracts can be considered after the premium narrows [39]. - **Egg**: The egg spot price has the basis to strengthen, and a long - position strategy at low levels can be considered [40]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is affected by the issuance of import quotas, and the short - term trend is oscillatory [41]. - **Sugar**: The international market focuses on the new - season production in Brazil, and the domestic sugar market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation [42]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price oscillates at a high level, and the follow - up demand situation needs to be focused on [43]. - **Timber**: The timber price oscillates. The low inventory supports the price, and the follow - up demand situation needs to be focused on [44]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price has fallen, and the medium - term trend is likely to be range - bound [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is in a relatively strong oscillatory pattern, and a balanced allocation idea can be considered. Attention should be paid to the rotation of market styles [46]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond futures price has fallen, and there may be repair opportunities for the long - end bonds. The yield curve may continue to steepen [47].

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4084.79 points, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19% to 14307.58 points. The ChiNext Index increased by 1.41% [1][4] - Among 30 sectors, 16 sectors saw gains, with the most significant increases in comprehensive finance, food and beverage, and electronics. Conversely, steel, non-ferrous metals, and construction experienced notable declines [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.83%, the S&P 500 rising 1.01%, and the Nasdaq increasing by 1.22%. Notable performers included Facebook, which rose over 2%, and Amazon, which approached a 2% increase [2][4] Economic Data - China's economic performance for the first two months of the year showed a fixed asset investment growth of 1.8% year-on-year, with a 5.2% increase when excluding real estate development investment. The industrial value-added growth was 6.3%, and the service production index grew by 5.2% [10][14] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%, with a notable decline in real estate development investment by 11.1% [14][15] News Highlights - China and the U.S. held trade talks in Paris, agreeing to explore the establishment of a bilateral trade and investment cooperation mechanism. The discussions focused on tariff arrangements and promoting bilateral trade [11][12] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to the U.S. initiating a 301 investigation against 16 economies, emphasizing that such actions undermine international trade order [16][17] Hydrogen Energy Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with two other departments, launched pilot projects for comprehensive hydrogen energy applications, aiming for significant advancements in hydrogen energy technology and a doubling of fuel cell vehicle ownership by 2030 [19]