晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 25 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | UN (A /UNDU | | 生 1 生平岡町 7 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 工业硅 | 燃油 | | | | 生猪 | 液化石油气 | 沥青 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 多晶硅 | 20号胶 | | | | 红枣 | 白糖 | 橡胶 | | | | PVC | 铝 | 尿素 | | | | 铁矿石 | 十债 | 棉纱 | | | | | 五债 | 棉花 | | | | | 三十债 | 胶版印刷纸 | | | ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 25 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议逢低做多 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议逢低适度持多 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 低位震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 逢高做空 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 05 谨慎追空，待反弹 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 股指： （王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） 昨日，A股市场多数个股上涨，Wind全A上涨1.06%，成交额2.22亿元。中证1000指数上涨1.16%，中证 500指数上涨1.12%，沪深300指数上涨1.01%，上证50指数上涨0.23%。地缘风险在节日期间未集中爆 发，但仍在酝酿。美国仍在向中东方向集结战斗力量，美伊冲突仍可能在近期爆发，贵金属维持高位震 荡。美伊冲突市场预期经过长时间的积累，计价以较为充分，局部冲突对权益市场影响有限。日本新政 府组阁完成，但距离修宪目标仍有一定时间距离，短期预计无法改变国际地缘格局。美国最高法院判决 特朗普依据IEEPA制定的关税政策违法，需要停止征收并退税，但这不影响其通过其他国内法条例征收 关税的权利；特朗普随后对全球加征10%关税，于24日生效，随后加征至15%。这一政策短期可能继续 冲击全球权益市场，但整体影响有限。此外，春节后风格切换与否也是市场关注点之一。历史上，春节 前后经常 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite, the reversal of US tariff policies, the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange - rate driving foreign capital inflows, and the release wave of large models and the popularity of robots, stock indices are expected to show a strong performance [4]. - The unchanged LPR in February meets market expectations. Although there is potential inflation pressure on the bond market, the economic recovery momentum needs further observation. With a loose capital - market environment and strong bond - market allocation power, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. - Gold is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation due to factors such as the strength of the US dollar and market uncertainty. Future trends depend on US macro - economic data, Fed officials' speeches, and US tariff policies [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation, aluminum prices may rise slightly in the short - term, and nickel prices are expected to rise with a contraction in supply [12][14][19]. - In the black building materials sector, the black series is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play, and it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products have different strategies. For example, crude oil is recommended for mid - term layout, and methanol is suggested to be bought at low prices in the mid - term [57][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply - demand situation of various products varies. For example, the pig market has an oversupply situation in the short - term, while the sugar market is not suitable for excessive short - selling due to potential production - ratio adjustments in Brazil in the future [80][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Indices - **Market Information**: The US imposed a 10% tariff on relevant goods, the central bank carried out a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, Musk proposed a satellite - launching plan, and a four - legged robot was released [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stock indices are expected to perform strongly in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond contract prices had slight changes, relevant entities were added to the export - control list, the LPR remained stable, and the central bank had a large - scale net capital withdrawal [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices had different trends, and the COMEX precious - metal inventory decreased [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose, LME and domestic inventories changed, and the spot - futures basis and import losses also changed [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and domestic and LME inventories changed [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise slightly in the short - term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, but zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell, and inventory and basis data changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead industry is in a weak state, but strategic stockpiling by battery enterprises may support prices in the short - term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose, and the cost and price of related products were stable [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Nickel prices are expected to rise, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rebounded, and supply and demand had certain characteristics [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rose [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate may tighten after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and production - recovery progress [21][22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term, and future price trends depend on ore - supply disturbances and supply - pressure relief [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless - steel prices rose, and inventory and production - related data changed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position view is maintained [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices rose, and inventory and trading - volume data changed [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and position changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage and is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron - ore prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron - ore prices will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic terminal - demand start - up and policy guidance [33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking - coal and coke prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the upward impetus for coking coal is not strong, and there is a risk of price correction. In 2026, coking coal may have a good upward trend from June to October [36][37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose slightly, and soda - ash prices also rose slightly, with corresponding inventory and position data changes [38][41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda - ash is expected to oscillate weakly and steadily in the short - term [40][42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell, and the technical form was in an oscillating state [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market may enter an oscillating and volatility - reducing cycle. The future market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon depends on the black - market trend, cost - push factors, and supply - contraction expectations [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial - silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices fell. Relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial - silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to production changes in upstream and downstream enterprises and demand feedback [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization and inventory changed [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term trading on the disk is recommended, and a hedging strategy of buying NR and selling RU2609 is suggested [55]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil and related product prices rose [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term layout for crude oil is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical risks [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term strategy of buying at low prices is recommended [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and the basis data was provided [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A short - position strategy is recommended [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Profits from non - integrated styrene production have been repaired, and a profit - taking strategy is recommended [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and cost changed [65][66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support prices, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and start - up [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene - glycol prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a need to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA inventory - accumulation cycle is about to end, and there is a mid - term opportunity to buy at low prices [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short - term, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy at low prices following crude - oil trends [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward space for PE valuation exists, and the supply - demand situation is in a seasonal off - peak period [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and there is a long - term opportunity to buy the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices fell, and the supply - demand situation was unbalanced [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot market is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at the bottom in the medium - term [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight fluctuations, and the supply - demand situation was normal [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to have limited decline, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: US soybean export data, Brazilian soybean harvest data, and domestic soybean and meal inventory data were provided [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Protein - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [85]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil production, export, and inventory data, as well as domestic and Indian oil inventory data were provided [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is currently weak, but a long - position strategy is recommended at low prices in the medium - term [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar production data from Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, as well as import data were provided [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the global sugar market. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended for the domestic market, and there may be a rebound after the end of the sugar - pressing season [90]. Cotton - **Market Information**: US cotton export data, domestic cotton inventory and production - capacity utilization data, and relevant policy information were provided [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: US cotton prices rebounded, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for domestic cotton, with attention to downstream start - up [92].

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2月24日，河南纵深推进融入服务全国统一大市场大会召开，部署今年重点工作。省委常委、市委书记 安伟代表郑州市作交流发言。 自郑州市获批成为全国要素市场化配置综合改革试点以来，全市上下深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于要 素市场化配置改革的重要指示精神，认真落实中央部署和省委省政府要求，坚持目标导向、问题导向， 高起点谋划、清单化管理、项目化推进、闭环式落实，各项工作取得显著成效。截至目前，123项重点 工作已顺利完成年度任务，十大攻坚目标全部实现，进入"总体任务序时推进、重点攻坚实质性突破"的 新阶段。 强化要素协同配置改革，绘就要素融通新图景。郑州市全面启动智能招投标改革，率先建成全国招投 标"一张网"，并已经顺利实现首个智能招投标项目开标。在全国率先试行市场监管领域"沙盒监管"模 式，为信用良好的市场主体营造了更为宽松的发展环境。企业跨区域迁移登记办理时限从平均30个工作 日大幅压缩至6个工作日，效率提升80%。在全省率先实现市级医疗集团之间检查检验结果的全面互 认，以数字赋能提升了医疗服务的便捷度。加快构建以铁路运输为主的"空铁公水"高效衔接交通网络， 推动社会物流总费用占GDP比重从13.6%降至13%。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 早上好！先来看重要资讯。 伊朗外长：希望在最短时间内与美国达成公平协议 阿拉格齐说，伊朗的基本立场和信念非常明确：在任何情况下都不会寻求发展核武器，同时伊朗人民也 绝不放弃和平利用核技术的权利。 据伊朗国家电视台24日报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队地面部队在该国南部沿海地区举行军事演习。 报道称，本次演习旨在"针对现有威胁演练最新战术，维护南部沿海地区和岛屿安全"。 美军向以色列南部部署11架F-22战斗机 据新华社援引以色列公共广播公司24日报道，12架美军F-22"猛禽"隐形战斗机当天从英国起飞，除一架 因技术故障返回基地外，其余11架在晚些时候飞抵以色列南部一空军基地。 该报道说，此类战斗机可执行包括渗透敌方领空、摧毁防空系统和雷达等多项任务。美国这一举动可能 是为以色列应对伊朗导弹袭击做准备。 当地时间24日，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特称，对伊朗问题，特朗普的首选方案永远是外交手段，但必要 时也愿意使用致命武力，"最终的决定权始终在特朗普手中"。 以媒称以色列"正多层面完善备战" 据新华社援引以色列第12频道电视台报道，以色列方面 ...

本报记者 王 宁 2月24日，春节后的首个交易日，国内期货市场呈现涨多跌少态势。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 春节假期期间，海外市场贵金属品种呈现先抑后扬走势，尤其是纽约白银期货，价格从71.82美元/盎司 低点持续反弹，目前保持在88美元/盎司附近震荡。 徽商期货研究所贵金属研究员从姗姗向记者表示，春节假期期间，国际金银价格呈先弱后强走势，主要 受市场避险情绪升温、地缘风险和美联储降息预期共同影响。目前来看，美国关税政策变化仍具有较高 不确定性，国内外贵金属或维持偏强走势。"由于白银具有广泛的工业应用，未来白银价格弹性将远超 黄金。"从姗姗说。 金瑞期货贵金属研究员吴梓杰告诉记者，春节后首个交易日贵金属品种表现亮眼，主要受国际白银价格 推动，同时国内现货市场供应偏紧，白银期价具备较强走高基础。"在贵金属高波动阶段，短期来看， 交易者应以风险控制为核心，而非押注单边行情，要将保证金与流动性约束纳入风控框架，仓位也要预 留充足的安全空间，避免在风险放大时被动减仓。"吴梓杰说。 节后首个交易日商品市场多个板块走强，资金流入明显。上海文华财经资讯股份有限公司数据显示，2 ...

2月24日，A股和国内期货市场迎来马年春节后首个交易日。A股市场开门"发红包"。当日，上证指数收 涨0.87%，报4117.41点，深证成指涨逾1%，创业板指涨0.99%，北证50微涨0.37%，全天市场成交额突 破2万亿元，超4000只个股上涨，111只个股涨停。 "不过，地缘政治风险的影响往往是短暂的，油价长期走势还是要回归基本面。国际能源署最新月报显 示，2025年全球原油库存累积速度为2020年以来最快，增加4.77亿桶，OECD国家库存4年来首次超过5 年均值。OPEC+减产解除、非OPEC国家供应强劲增长及能源转型持续推进，共同影响原油的供需格 局。因此，油价可能是阶段性反弹，持续性存疑。"程小勇说。 节后首日，黑色板块表现偏弱。对此，中辉期货黑色负责人陈为昌认为，从供需来看，钢材需求仍然偏 弱，表观消费低于去年同期水平，但铁水产量为农历同期最高，供需整体偏宽松。原料端，铁矿石春节 假期期间发运量回升，为同期最高水平。焦煤节后开始复产，成本端存在下行驱动。黑色板块整体仍受 制于弱现实的压制。 （文章来源：期货日报网） 关于贵金属板块大涨的原因，金瑞期货贵金属研究员吴梓杰表示，春节假期期间，美国关税 ...

齐鲁大地上，钢铁火红锻造工业筋骨，化工流光照亮转型之路，有色光泽焕发产业生机，田野青绿夯实 粮仓根基，共同凝聚起实体经济发展的强劲动能。 近年来，依托优势工业品与特色农产品资源，山东期货市场在提升产业链供应链韧性、助力乡村振兴等 方面的作用日益凸显。2025年，围绕更好地发挥期货市场功能、促进实体经济高质量发展，山东证监局 在严守风险底线、强化监管赋能的基础上，推动市场各方把期货衍生工具科学运用到产业一线，把价格 信号转化为经营决策，把风险管理嵌入生产流通全链条，逐步形成期货市场与实体经济同频共振的生动 实践，推动期货市场在稳链保供、稳产增收中发挥更大作用。 凝聚共识：锚定高质量发展方向 期货和衍生品法明确指出，"国家支持期货市场健康发展，发挥发现价格、管理风险、配置资源的功 能"。期货市场天然与现货产业相伴相生，越是产业链长、品类多、供需波动频繁的地方，越需要一套 更加精密的风险管理工具箱，用以对冲价格波动、稳定经营预期、提升资源配置效率，更好地护航产业 链供应链稳健运行。 提升服务：让工具看得懂、用得好 运用期货衍生工具管理风险，关键在于易懂和会用。围绕产业企业"想用不会用、想用不敢用"的痛点， 山东证监 ...